期指：静待走稳 2025 年 8 月 4 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4054.93 | ↓0.51 | | 3596.9 | | | | | | IF2508 | 4042.8 | ↓0.52 | -12.13 | 341.1 | 28026 | ↓9717 | 44554 | ↓76 | | IF2509 | 4029.6 | ↓0.52 | -25.33 | 690.2 | 56881 | ↓34566 | 151416 | ↓6186 | | IF2512 | 3997.2 | ↓0.48 | -57.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 4, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, chemical futures, and agricultural product futures [2]. - The report also provides an analysis of the previous day's (August 1) market performance of these futures contracts and gives monthly trend forecasts for some futures contracts in August 2025 [17][47]. - It summarizes recent macro - economic news and policies, which may have an impact on the futures market [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - From August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. Bonds issued before August 8 will be exempt from VAT until maturity [8]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies, and increase financing support for key areas [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the implementation of measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and is accelerating the revision of the Price Law to regulate market price order. The third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for consumer goods trade - in has been issued, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October [9]. - The "Financial Infrastructure Supervision and Administration Measures" will come into effect on October 1, 2025, focusing on the business supervision of financial infrastructure [9]. - Natural persons purchasing national bonds with a monthly quota of no more than 1 million yuan will enjoy a VAT exemption on interest income until December 31, 2027 [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will accelerate the approval of new policy - based financial instruments, and government bond issuance is expected to speed up, which is expected to boost infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [9]. - In the first half of 2025, the sales revenue of national enterprises maintained stable growth, and the manufacturing industry showed steady improvement, with significant effects of the "two new" policies [10]. - Multiple departments will introduce policies to release domestic demand potential, promote innovation integration, and manage over - capacity in key industries [10]. - The US non - farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, far less than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in October [11]. - US President Trump plans to impose reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached agreements with the US, effective August 7, 2025 [11]. - The US trade representative stated that the new round of tariffs imposed by Trump will not be adjusted [12]. - Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates significantly and threatened to take over if the Fed does not act [12]. - Some Fed officials are concerned about the impact of the delay in interest rate cuts on the labor market [12]. - Fed official Bostic believes that employment data shows a slowdown in the economy but will not change the FOMC's decision this week [12]. - Fed official Kugler will leave office early, creating uncertainty about the Fed's future leadership [13]. - New York Fed President Williams expects the US economic growth to slow to about 1% this year [13]. - As of July 31, 2025, the average effective tariff rate on US imports reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, which has been criticized [13]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 48, a nine - month low [13]. 3.2 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On August 1, most domestic commodity futures closed lower, with black - series, energy, and chemical products mostly falling, while some oilseeds rose [14]. - On August 1, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.01% and COMEX silver futures up 1.07% [14]. - On August 1, international oil prices fell due to increased crude oil inventories and production increase expectations. US WTI crude oil futures fell 2.89%, and Brent crude oil futures fell 3.04% [15]. - On August 1, most London base metals closed higher, except for zinc which fell [15]. - On August 1, agricultural product futures on the Chicago Board of Trade and the Intercontinental Exchange closed lower [16]. - OPEC + agreed to significantly increase oil production in September, reversing the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut in 2023 [16]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will strengthen foreign exchange situation monitoring and management to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market [16]. - On August 1, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index fell [17]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On August 1, the CSI 300股指期货主力合约 IF2509, SSE 50股指期货主力合约 IH2509, and CSI 500股指期货主力合约 IC2509 all showed a downward trend, while the CSI 1000股指期货主力合约 IM2509 showed a slight upward trend [17][18][19]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025,股指期货 will fluctuate and consolidate. In August 2025, the four major股指期货 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [24][23]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On August 1, the ten - year treasury bond futures主力合约 T2509 and the thirty - year treasury bond futures主力合约 TL2509 both showed a weakening trend [41][44]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, the T2509 and TL2509 contracts will fluctuate strongly [43][47]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals Futures - On August 1, the gold futures主力合约 AU2510 showed a slight upward trend, and the silver futures主力合约 AG2510 showed a downward trend [47][56]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, both the AU2510 and AG2510 contracts will fluctuate strongly. In August 2025, both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [48][57]. 3.3.4 Base Metals Futures - On August 1, most base metal futures showed a mixed performance. For example, the copper futures主力合约 CU2509 showed a slight upward trend, while the aluminum futures主力合约 AL2509 showed a downward trend [60][65]. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, most base metal futures will continue their previous trends, with some showing weak fluctuations and some showing strong fluctuations. In August 2025, most are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [60][65][74]. 3.3.5 Energy Futures - On August 1, the crude oil futures主力合约 SC2509 showed a downward trend. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, the SC2509 contract will fluctuate weakly. In August 2025, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [117]. 3.3.6 Chemical Futures - On August 1, most chemical futures showed a downward trend, such as PTA, PVC, and methanol futures. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, most chemical futures will continue to fluctuate weakly [121][124][126]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Product Futures - On August 1, the soybean meal futures主力合约 M2509 showed a slight upward trend, while the palm oil futures主力合约 P2509 showed a slight upward but weak trend. - It is expected that on August 4, 2025, the M2509 contract will fluctuate strongly, and the P2509 contract will fluctuate weakly [129][133].

2025年08月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：宏观淡化回归基本面，钢价低位震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供给端扰动仍存，宽幅震荡或延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：弱势格局 | 6 | | 多晶硅：短期情绪继续降温 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 4 日 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 不锈钢：宏观淡化回归基本面，钢价低位震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Overview - Date: August 4, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products 1. Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Wait for low - level long - position building as the influence of macro and crude oil wanes [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: Mainly in a shock - adjustment phase, with attention on the China - US trade agreement [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, while Dalian soybean meal oscillated relatively strongly [2]. - **Soybean No.1**: Rebound and oscillate [2]. - **Corn**: Oscillate [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the crushing progress in Brazil [2]. - **Cotton**: Be aware of the impact of external markets [2]. - **Eggs**: Run weakly [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot performance is below expectations, and the near - end is weak [2]. - **Peanuts**: Focus on the weather in the producing areas [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price had a 0.11% increase, and the night - session had a - 1.41% decrease; soybean oil's daily - session closing price rose 1.00%, and the night - session fell - 0.58%. The trading volume and open interest of both had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US July non - farm employment growth was lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose slightly. OPEC + is expected to approve a new round of production increase plans, and the Malaysian palm oil production in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of - 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2509 had a 0.13% increase in the daily - session and a 0.63% increase in the night - session; DCE soybean No.1 2509 decreased by 0.36% in the daily - session and increased by 0.17% in the night - session. Spot prices in different regions also had changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US soybean futures fell for the second consecutive week due to factors such as good weather in the US soybean - producing areas, weak demand from China, and potential uncertainties in China - US trade. The market is waiting for the USDA's new global supply - demand report on August 12 [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of + 1, and soybean No.1 has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of important spot markets such as Northeast China, Jinzhou, and Guangdong had corresponding changes. Futures prices of different contracts also fluctuated, and trading volume, open interest, and basis had their own values [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The port prices of northern corn were stable, the price of Guangdong Shekou increased, and the prices of corn in Northeast and North China had different trends. The prices of substitute products such as sorghum and barley were also provided [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of raw sugar, mainstream spot, and futures had year - on - year changes, and the spreads also had corresponding changes [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's central - southern crushing progress accelerated, India's monsoon precipitation was higher than normal, and the import and production data of different countries and regions in different seasons were reported [17][18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts such as CF2509 and CY2509 had changes, and spot prices in different regions and the prices of related products also fluctuated. Spreads also had corresponding changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was good, the price of pure - cotton yarn followed the decline of cotton, and the domestic cotton - textile market was weak. ICE cotton futures fell last Friday [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts such as eggs 2509 and eggs 2601 had changes, and spot prices in different regions and related feed and livestock prices also had corresponding values [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong, futures prices of different contracts, trading volume, open interest, and spreads all had corresponding values [32]. - **Market Logic**: The market's expected price increase from late July to early August did not meet expectations, and the market pressure is large. The 9 - month contract is expected to run weakly, and the spread structure has changed to a reverse spread [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Liaoning and Henan were stable, futures prices of different contracts had slight declines, and trading volume, open interest, and spreads had their own values [36]. - **Spot Market Focus**: The spot markets in different regions such as Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong had different trading situations [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Ferrosilicon: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Silicomanganese: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coke: Market sentiment is reflected, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coking coal: Market sentiment is reflected, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 783.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton or 0.51%. The previous day's position was 410,009 lots, a decrease of 9,550 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore increased to varying degrees. Some basis and spread values also changed [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,203 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or - 1.23%. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,401 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or - 0.58%. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly, and basis and spread values also had corresponding changes [8][9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to weekly data from Steel Union on July 31, rebar production decreased by 0.9 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.3 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 0.65 tons. Total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and apparent demand decreased [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and spot prices of relevant products decreased. The prices of raw materials such as manganese ore and semi - coke also changed. The basis and spread values of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also had corresponding adjustments [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 229.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. From January to June, the total manganese ore exports were 13.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke changed, and basis and spread values also had corresponding fluctuations [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No new relevant news is provided in the content. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's trading of thermal coal ZC2508 had no transactions. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared with the previous settlement price. Southern port and domestic origin prices of thermal coal are provided, and the long and short positions of the top 20 members on August 1 did not change [23][24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No new relevant news is provided in the content. - **Trend Intensity**: Thermal coal has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in the spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trends of PX, PTA, and MEG are all偏弱. PX is recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage and shorting PXN on rallies; PTA is suggested for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels; MEG is also recommended for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, with a downward - driven unilateral trend [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - As the August 8 deadline for the peace agreement approaches, the impact of US President Donald Trump's threat to impose secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries doing business with Russia is uncertain. Trump deployed two nuclear - powered submarines on August 1 in response to a "highly provocative statement" by a Russian senior official. If secondary sanctions or tariffs are implemented, 4 million barrels per day of oil could be removed from the market, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel [3][5]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6812, 4744, 4405, 6444, and 527.9 respectively, with daily price changes of - 1.67%, - 1.33%, - 0.20%, - 0.31%, and - 0.64% [2]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The previous day's closing prices of PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF9 - 1, and SC9 - 10 were 22, - 38, - 34, - 64, and 4.6 respectively, with daily price changes of - 42, - 6, - 7, - 6, and - 0.6 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 845.67 dollars/ton, 4740 yuan/ton, 4480 yuan/ton, 603.88 dollars/ton, and 71.39 dollars/barrel respectively, with daily price changes of - 13.66, - 86, - 12, - 7.12, and - 1.31 [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: The previous day's spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were 247.33, 192.91, 137.95, - 0.61, and - 6.01 respectively, with daily price changes of - 10.7, 7.72, 21.83, 26.76, and 0 [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a "weak - biased" trend [5]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In August, there are no new PX maintenance plans, but some units are set to restart, while PTA device operating rates are expected to decline. PX supply - demand turns to a loose pattern, and the short - term suggestion is to short on rallies [5]. - **PTA**: The polyester factory operating rate is at a low level, and the willingness to hold raw materials has decreased. PTA factories sell at high - low basis, and the 09 contract has a bearish situation. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels [6]. - **MEG**: From a valuation perspective, the impact on the black sector is fading, and the overall valuation of coal - chemical industry is falling. The domestic device operating rate will continue to rise. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, while being vigilant about the long - squeeze situation [7].

2025 年 8 月 4 日 棕榈油：宏观及原油退潮，等待低位布多 豆油：震荡调整为主，关注中美贸易协议 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 0.11% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 -1.41% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,910 8,274 | 1.00% | 8,784 8,226 | -0.58% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,524 | 0.15% | 9,467 | -0.60% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,245 | 0.35% | | | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 53.90 | -1.53% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 512,068 | 33046 | 394,141 | -342 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 417,594 | 128,812 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the precious metals market, with gold's non - farm data weakening and silver falling from a high. The trend strength for both gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Prices**: -沪金2510 closed at 770.72 with a daily increase of 0.06% and a night - session close of 781.12 with a 1.33% increase; Comex黄金2510 closed at 3416.00 with a 2.21% increase; London gold spot closed at 3362.09 with a 2.25% increase [2]. -沪银2510 closed at 8918 with a - 0.98% decrease and a night - session close of 8994.00 with a 0.80% increase; Comex白银2510 closed at 37.105 with a 0.86% increase; London silver spot closed at 37.025 with a 0.97% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: -沪金2510 contract's trading volume was 189,185, a decrease of 71,516 from the previous day, and its position was 218,768, an increase of 1,688 [2]. -沪银2510's trading volume was 587,441, a decrease of 513,199 from the previous day, and its position was 365,193, a decrease of 5,917 [2]. - **ETF Holdings**: - SPDR黄金ETF持仓 was 953.08, a decrease of 1; SLV白银ETF持仓 (the day before yesterday) was 15,056.67, a decrease of 6 [2]. - **Inventory**: -沪金 inventory was 35,745 kg, an increase of 102 kg; Comex黄金 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 38,675,474 troy ounces, an increase of 161,012 troy ounces [2]. -沪银 inventory was 1,183,957 kg, a decrease of 24,076 kg; Comex白银 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 505,219,644 troy ounces, an increase of 881,335 troy ounces [2]. - **Spreads**: - The spread between沪金2510 contract and 2512 contract was 189,185, a decrease of 71,516; the spread between沪银2510 contract and 2512 contract was - 8,261, an increase of 176 [2]. - The cost of the spread arbitrage of buying沪金 December and selling June was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87; the cost of the spread arbitrage of buying沪银 December and selling June was 73.41, a decrease of 11.3 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - The US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.22, an increase of 0.23%; the euro to US dollar was 1.16 with no change; the US dollar to Japanese yen was 147.42, an increase of 0.05; the British pound to US dollar was 1.21 with no change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000 [3]. - Trump blamed the weak non - farm data on officials appointed by Biden and called for the dismissal of the Bureau of Statistics director [5]. - There is an "open" internal struggle within the Fed. Two senior officials said "employment remains robust", while two opponents issued a statement saying "waiting is a mistake" [5]. - Fed Governor Kugler announced her resignation on August 8 [7]. - Trump threatened sanctions and demanded that Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement before August 8. Putin said that if someone was disappointed with the results of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks so far, it was because of "over - expectations" [7]. - OPEC+ agreed in principle to significantly increase production again in September [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene, including futures prices,持仓&成交, spreads, and key industrial chain data. It also provides market information such as Saudi CP expectations and domestic device maintenance plans [2][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2509 closed at 3,965 with a daily decline of 0.95% and a night - session close of 3,923 with a decline of 1.06%; PG2510 closed at 4,404 with a daily decline of 0.83% and a night - session close of 4,367 with a decline of 0.84%; PL2601 closed at 6,474 with a daily decline of 1.08% and a night - session close of 6,460 with a decline of 0.22%; PL2602 closed at 6,561 with a daily decline of 0.73% and a night - session close of 6,521 with a decline of 0.61% [2] - **持仓&成交**: For PG2509, the trading volume was 67,049 (a decrease of 64,479) and the open interest was 89,961 (an increase of 4,242); for PG2510, the trading volume was 19,509 (a decrease of 11,819) and the open interest was 65,630 (a decrease of 737); for PL2601, the trading volume was 3,454 (an increase of 1,111) and the open interest was 4,575 (a decrease of 125); for PL2602, the trading volume was 77 (a decrease of 125) and the open interest was 1,127 (a decrease of 29) [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 405 (previous day: 397); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 435 (previous day: 427); the spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and PL01 contract were - 269, - 124, and - 149 respectively (previous day: - 300, - 195, - 220) [2] - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 72.6% (last week: 73.1%), the MTBE operating rate was 67.8% (last week: 69.0%), and the alkylation operating rate was 48.8% (last week: 46.9%) [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [10] 3.3 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On July 31, 2025, the expected price of propane in September was 528 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 498 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The expected price of propane in October was 543 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 513 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [11] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, with the end time to be determined, etc. [12] - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, including Shandong's Shengli Heavy Oil, Haike Ruilin, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and loss volumes [12]

螺纹钢：市场情绪降温，宽幅震荡 2025 年 8 月 4 日 热轧卷板：市场情绪降温，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 来源：Mysteel，同花顺，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 7 月 31 日钢联周度数据：产量方面，螺纹-0.9 万吨，热卷+5.3 万吨，五大品种合计+0.65 万吨；总 库存方面，螺纹+7.65 万吨，热卷+2.79 万吨，五大品种合计+15.39 万吨；表需方面，螺-13.17 万吨，热 卷-8.31 万吨，五大品种合计-15.9 万吨。（数据来源：上海钢联） 【中共中央政治局:依法依规治理企业无房竞争。推进重点行业产能治理】会议指出要坚定不移深化改 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB ...