1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The contradiction between macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory accumulation, along with potential uncertainties from Indonesia, will put pressure on nickel prices [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro and real - world factors are jointly pressuring prices, but the cost floor limits the downside elasticity. It is expected to oscillate weakly next week [5]. - Industrial silicon: Inventory has shifted to accumulation, and there are expectations of weakening supply - demand. The supply is expected to exceed demand, and the trading strategy is to sell high [27][32]. - Polysilicon: A weekend industry meeting was held, and policy logic still exists. There are policy expectations, and investors can look for buying opportunities after the market sentiment is released [27][33]. - Lithium carbonate: Macro factors are suppressing prices, and it is expected to operate weakly. The price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton [62][65]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory accumulation are pressuring prices. Although non - standard nickel fundamentals have marginally improved, the inventory accumulation contradiction in refined nickel remains. Indonesian news may increase uncertainties [4]. - **Stainless steel**: Macro and real - world factors are pressuring demand, and the cost provides a floor. However, the short - term price may oscillate weakly due to factors such as production capacity and inventory [5]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined nickel**: Chinese refined nickel social inventory increased by 5,190 tons to 45,630 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,254 tons to 237,378 tons [8]. - **New energy**: There were changes in the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines in October [8]. - **Nickel - stainless steel**: SMM nickel - iron inventory was stable in September, and stainless - steel factory and social inventories changed [8]. Market News - Indonesia has taken measures such as taking over part of the WBN park and suspending the production of some mining companies, which may affect nickel - ore supply [9]. - The US may impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1, which may impact stainless - steel exports [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends - **Industrial silicon**: The futures price oscillated, and the spot price declined. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 silicon price was 8,850 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the Inner Mongolia 99 silicon price was 9,000 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month) [27]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price declined, and the spot price was stable, with the Friday closing price at 48,965 yuan/ton [27]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Industrial silicon**: Supply: Xinjiang factories are resuming production, and Southwest China may reduce production in the future. October production is expected to increase to 440,000 tons. Inventory has accumulated. Demand: Downstream polysilicon and silicone support consumption, but overall demand improvement is limited [28][29]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply: Production is expected to increase in October and then decline. Inventory has accumulated. Demand: Silicon - wafer production is expected to decrease in October, and the next restocking is expected in mid - October [29][31]. Market Outlook - **Industrial silicon**: The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the trading strategy is to sell high. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt volume [32]. - **Polysilicon**: There are policy expectations. After the market sentiment is released, look for buying opportunities. Focus on the restocking situation in mid - October [33]. Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - The futures contract price oscillated. The 2511 contract closed at 72,740 yuan/ton (down 1,300 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the 2601 contract closed at 72,900 yuan/ton (down 1,100 yuan/ton week - on - week). The spot price was 73,550 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton week - on - week) [62]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: Weekly production reached a new high of 20,635 tons. Zangge Mining obtained new mining rights [63]. - **Demand**: The short - term spot market is strong, but macro - level export controls and potential US tariffs may impact demand [63]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory decreased to 134,800 tons, with upstream inventory accumulating during the holiday and downstream and trading - link inventory decreasing [63]. Market Outlook - The price is expected to operate weakly, with the futures price in the range of 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to focus on positive spreads for cross - period trading and increase the proportion of selling hedging [65][66][67].

| 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 1、钢材观点：弱现实叠加预期转弱，钢价小幅回调 2、铁矿周度观点：宏观风偏显著回调，估值承压 3、煤焦周度观点：宏观预期反复，或延续弱势震荡 4、铁合金观点：市场观望情绪浓厚，合金价格走势震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色高级分析师：李亚飞 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The LPG substitution limit for naphtha in Asia is approximately 70 - 80 tons per month. If the LPG substitution volume continues to increase, the supply - demand gap for Asian naphtha in November may be temporarily filled, and attention should be paid to the probability of marginal weakening of naphtha under large - scale LPG substitution [1][33][40] - The escalation of the Sino - US trade conflict will affect the substitution volume of Chinese cracking units through increased costs, and the specific impact needs to be considered based on the direction of tariff policies [40] Summary by Directory 1. LPG Asian Price Rapidly Weakens - On September 30, Saudi Aramco announced the October CP price. Propane dropped by $25/ton to $495/ton, and butane dropped by $15 to $475/ton. The landed cost was about 4,259 yuan/ton for propane and 4,196 yuan/ton for butane, significantly lower than the previous market expectation of $520 - 530/ton. The CP decline led to a sharp drop in the overall Asian propane market [1][5] - During the National Day holiday, the FEI paper cargo dropped by about $30/ton, and the CP paper cargo dropped by nearly $50/ton. The significant weakening of C3 raw materials led to the weak performance of the post - holiday C3 industrial chain prices [5] 2. Propane Market Share Changes after Sino - US Tariff Game 2.1 China's Import Logistics Changes - After April this year, due to the mutual imposition of punitive tariffs between China and the US, China's LPG import logistics changed significantly. Before April 2025, US sources accounted for over 50% of China's LPG imports. After the tariffs, the volume of LPG imported from the US decreased sharply, and most of the supply gap shifted to the Middle East [6][9] 2.2 US Propane Flow Changes - As the US LPG gradually lost its market share in China, its flow became more diversified, directly impacting the North Asian and South Asian markets. The proportion of US exports to China decreased rapidly, while exports to Japan, South Korea, India, and South America increased significantly, showing a more decentralized logistics characteristic [10][12] 2.3 Indian Market Game - The significant drop in Saudi Aramco's CP official price is reported to be for competing for the South Asian market share. India's LPG import pattern has changed from almost solely relying on the Middle East to mainly sourcing from the Middle East with a gradually increasing US share. In 2025, the US - India energy cooperation framework was reached, and in August, due to the US threatening India over its purchase of Russian crude oil, India increased its purchase of other US energy forms as a compromise [13][16][17] - The Middle East is expected to increase LPG production in the future. With the need to digest the incremental supply and considering the future large - scale launch of US export terminal facilities, a price war seems inevitable [17] 3. Impact of "Low - price" LPG on the Energy - Chemical Industry Chain - The significant drop in LPG prices led to a rapid decline in the prices of the entire C3 industrial chain (on the futures market). The previous large - scale losses of PDH plants have been effectively improved, and the expected operating rate of PDH is likely to increase, which in turn caused the prices of downstream polypropylene products (including propylene oxide, acrylonitrile, etc.) to drop rapidly [19] - The decline in LPG prices also affects the price of naphtha, the central pricing factor for this year's chemical products. After the price drop, Asian petrochemical plants' willingness to purchase LPG has rapidly increased [19] 4. Essence of Ethylene Cracking Raw Material Substitution 4.1 Process Basis for Raw Material Substitution - Ethylene cracking furnaces can be divided into gas cracking furnaces, liquid cracking furnaces, and gas - liquid homogeneous cracking furnaces. When discussing propane substitution in ethylene cracking, it involves two issues: increasing the load of existing cracking furnaces and directly switching raw materials in gas - liquid homogeneous cracking furnaces. The latter has more options for raw material substitution, but the downstream processing capacity limits the degree of raw material substitution [25] 4.2 Ethylene Raw Material Structure and Substitution in Asian Regions - Japan and South Korea are the main Northeast Asian countries that purchase ethylene cracking raw materials externally, and their external naphtha purchases account for nearly 40% of the total in Asia. They are often the vanguards for raw material switching in the Asian market. Currently, LPG accounts for about 20% of the ethylene cracking raw materials in Japan and South Korea, equivalent to an LPG usage of 835 tons per year. With a 20% overload, it is about 170 tons more per year, equivalent to an economic substitution of about 10 - 20 tons per month [26][28] - China and Southeast Asia have a larger proportion of ethylene production capacity. China's ethylene cracking raw material structure mainly includes traditional naphtha/LPG cracking, light hydrocarbon cracking, and MTO. In traditional cracking processes, the ratio of naphtha to LPG is generally 8:2. The maximum LPG usage through overload substitution in China's traditional ethylene cracking capacity is about 30 tons per month, and in Southeast Asia, it is about 20 - 25 tons per month [31] 5. Historical Back - testing and Impact on Naphtha 5.1 Historical Back - testing - The LPG substitution limit for naphtha in Asia is approximately 70 - 80 tons per month. With the recent significant drop in LPG prices, the profit gap between the two has widened, and the economic viability of using LPG in cracking units has increased significantly [33] - Historically, in some extreme situations (such as October 2021, March - April 2022), the monthly LPG substitution volume could reach about 80 tons. Whether this substitution volume will change the fundamentals of naphtha this year remains to be seen [37] 5.2 Impact on Asian Naphtha Supply and Demand - The recent drop in LPG prices will lead to significant substitution of cracking raw materials in Asia. Previously, the high E/W price spread of Asian naphtha has led to a historical high in East - West arbitrage logistics. Meanwhile, the overall demand of downstream ethylene cracking has been weaker than expected due to deep losses and seasonal maintenance. If the LPG substitution volume continues to increase, the supply - demand gap for Asian naphtha in November may be temporarily filled, and attention should be paid to the probability of marginal weakening of naphtha [37] 6. Escalation of Sino - US Trade War and Ship Control - According to the latest US port - calling fee policy for Chinese - related ships, ethane and propane ships need to pay a $50/ton berthing fee at US ports. This will directly increase the cost of importing ethane and propane. For ethane, the impact on domestic raw material selection is not significant for now, but for US - imported propane, it may significantly affect the substitution volume between propane and naphtha in China. However, since China's proportion of purchasing US propane has decreased, the specific impact needs further consideration [39] 7. Summary - From the perspective of the raw material structure in Asia, the LPG substitution limit is about 80 tons per month. If this substitution volume acts on the currently weakening Asian naphtha supply - demand situation, it may fill the supply - demand gap in November and lead to a short - term supply - demand inflection point [40] - In addition to the economic factors of LPG substitution, the recent escalation of the Sino - US trade conflict will also affect the substitution volume of Chinese cracking units through increased costs, and the specific impact depends on the direction of tariff policies [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **LPG**: Short - term weak operation. Although PDH profit has improved significantly due to the weakening of propane, the current tense Sino - US trade relationship and strong market wait - and - see sentiment make it difficult to fully realize demand support. However, considering that the PG main contract has reached a new low and civil demand is gradually improving, the downward space is expected to be limited [3]. - **Propylene**: Demand is weakening, and it will run weakly in the short term. Next week, although the supply may shrink due to the expected maintenance of PDH devices, the demand will weaken as some PO and acrylic acid devices plan to stop for maintenance, so the upward momentum of prices is limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Part Price & Spread - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: There are significant differences in the price changes of civil gas in different regions. The prices of Shandong, East China, and South China have changed by - 100, 21, and - 50 yuan/ton respectively on a weekly basis. For other LPG and basis, the prices of Shandong ether - after, East China import, and South China import have also changed, and the basis of civil gas in different regions has also shown different trends [7]. - **Regional Quotations, Premiums, and Freight**: The freight from the US to the Far East has decreased, the FEI premium has weakened, and there is an arbitrage space [18]. - **Propane Price**: It has weakened significantly [28]. Supply - **International Shipment**: The US, Canada, Qatar, and other countries' LPG shipment volumes have different degrees of changes. For example, the US - China propane shipment volume (weekly) MA4 has decreased by 1 compared with the previous period [38]. - **Domestic Supply**: The total LPG commodity volume is 54.3 tons (+0.6%), of which the civil gas commodity volume is 21.8 tons (+1.0%), and the ether - after C4 commodity volume remains at a high level. The propane commodity volume has decreased, and the imported vessel arrivals have decreased by 6.7 tons [60][69]. Demand & Inventory - **Chemical Demand**: The operating rates of PDH and MTBE have decreased slightly [73]. - **Domestic Refinery Inventory**: The ether - after inventory is at a high level, and the civil gas is accumulating inventory. The inventory of LPG refineries in different regions has different trends, such as the inventory of civil gas refineries in Shandong has increased by 1.29% on a weekly basis [82]. - **Terminal Imported Cargo Inventory**: The inventory in East China and Shandong has decreased from a high level, while the inventory in South China has increased slightly [92]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and other upstream products have decreased to varying degrees on a weekly basis. For example, Brent has decreased by 4.97 US dollars/bbl, with a weekly average change of - 4.73% [103]. - **Propylene Price**: The international/US - dollar price has slightly corrected from a high level, and the domestic/Shandong market is relatively strong, while the East China price has declined, and the regional spread has widened [106][114]. - **Downstream Price/Profit**: The prices and profits of downstream products such as PP particles, PP powder, and PO have changed. For example, the price of PP particles has decreased by 63 yuan/ton on a weekly basis, and the profit has decreased by 53 yuan/ton [105]. Balance Sheet - **Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic propylene supply is expected to be 550 tons, with a weighted operating rate of 80.5%, an increase of 7.64% compared with the previous month. The supply from different sources such as main refineries, local refineries, and PDH devices has different degrees of changes [127]. - **Demand**: In October 2025, the total domestic propylene demand is expected to be 544 tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.5%, an increase of 5.95% compared with the previous month. The demand from downstream products such as polypropylene particles, polypropylene powder, and epoxy propane has different degrees of changes [128].

2025 年 10 月 12 日 車 度 千 国庆前后(09.29-10.10),美豆期价涨跌互现,期价上涨主要因为中美谈判希望(10月1日美国总 统特朗普表示,他将在四周后与中国国家主席习近平会面,大豆贸易将成为核心议题)和美国政策支持 (10 月 2 日美国财长贝森特表示,美国政府将为美国农民、特别是大豆种植者推出支持性政策);期价下 跌主要因为中美贸易摩擦忧虑再度升温（10月10日特朗普表示,没有理由按计划在两周后在韩国与中国 领导人会面;随后,特朗普宣布将从11月1日起对中国商品加征额外100%进口关税)。从周Ｋ线角度, 10月 3日当周,美豆主力 11月合约周涨幅 8.3%; 10月 10 日当周兴 美豆主力 11 月合约周跌幅 0.98%。 国庆前后 (09.29-09.30、10.09-10.10),国内豆粕期价偏弱,豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面,主要交 易中美缓和、中加缓和。豆一方面,盘面偏强主要因为国内政策支持预期、国庆期间美豆价格上涨带动。 东北产区新豆现货价格稳中偏弱。从周 K 线角度，18 月 10 日当周（节后两个交易日），豆粕主力 m2601 合约周跌幅 0.2%,豆一主力 a2511 ...

集运指数（欧线）观点： 关税战升级，或暂时延续弱势 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 本周集运指数（欧线）观点总结：关税战升级，或暂时延续弱势 预计41周即10月13日SCFIS欧线指数将在上一期（1046.50点）基础上微降；也有一定概率震荡，考虑到节前大幅降价的PA联盟船只不会在这期指数中体现， 而是在10月20日的指数中体现。 估值 结合涨价函生效日期、船只托班信息，42周离港的15条船只（26.9万TEU）中已经有7条（11.7万TEU）是按节前的价格收货，3条Gemini联盟船只按节后涨价 收货，剩下5条来自COSCO、CMA、MSC的船只观察下周船司如何调整运费。 43周预计第一阶段各联盟船司报价中枢为：Gemini 1850美元/FEU、OA 1900美元/FEU、PA 1900美元/FEU、MSC 2065美元/FEU ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：成本坍塌，趋势偏弱 | | 本周PX国产装置开工率87.4%（+0.8%），下周乌石化100万吨装置检修（中泰PTA检修），开工率下降。亚洲整体负荷开工率在79.9% （+1.9%）。韩华113万吨装置重启；10月FCFC72万吨、沙特Satorp70万吨计划检修。 | | --- | --- | | | 市场关注由于日照港受到制裁之后管道沿线炼厂的开工情况。目前来看，部分炼厂因原料供应整体负荷下降，但PX开工影响有限。 | | 需求 | 新凤鸣PTA新装置由于低加工费投产时间推迟。印度PTA新装置GAIL逐步计划投产。PX供需略显偏紧。本周PTA开工率74.4%（-2.4%）逸盛 新材料降负，恒力220万吨停车。 | | | 单边趋势偏弱，多PXN。当前美国辛烷值大幅上涨，带动韩国MX估值 ...

烧碱：短期不追空 PVC：偏弱震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 本周烧碱观点：短期不追空 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.0%，较上周（20250926-1002）环比-0.7%。分区域来看，假期期间，西北及华北 | | --- | --- | | | 负荷均有下滑，其中西北-1.8%至91.8%；华北-1.4%至76.8%。 | | 需求 | 氧化铝方面，由于高产量、高库存的格局，未来利润将被持续压缩。目前企业生产意愿较高，氧化铝开工产能保持较高水平，但区域性供 | | | 需错配的问题未解决，氧化铝供应过剩情况仍存，价格缺乏利好支撑，后续或将延续下行走势，随 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent fluctuations in tin prices are mainly affected by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin exports. Although the domestic price may open higher after the holiday, the probability of continuous strengthening is considered low. Attention should be paid to tariff risks [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 was at a discount of $61.99 per ton, and the domestic spot was at a premium of 300 yuan per ton [8][9]. - Overseas premium has declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [14]. 1.2 Spread - This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [17][18]. 1.3 Inventory - This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 104 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 268 tons [23][24]. - This week, the LME inventory increased by 205 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants dropped to 9.96% [29]. 1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 2.04013 billion yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in an inflow direction [34][35]. 1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin slightly decreased, while the open interest slightly increased [36][37]. - This week, the trading volume of LME tin slightly decreased, and the open interest continued to decline [41][42]. 1.6 Position - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin slightly rebounded [46]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In August 2025, 10,267 tons were imported, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28.61% [50]. - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan per ton. The profitability of tin ore imports slightly rebounded [51]. 2.2 Smelting - In August 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [53][54]. - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces slightly rebounded to 29.72% [55]. 2.3 Import - In August 2025, 1,296 tons of domestic tin ingots were imported, 1,640 tons were exported, with a net export of 344 tons. Among them, 501 tons of tin ingots were imported from Indonesia to China. The latest import profitability was - 15,038 yuan per ton [60]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.1 Consumption - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,046 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,843 tons [68]. 3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fee slightly decreased. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises rebounded in August to 73.2%. The output and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises slightly decreased in July [70]. 3.3 End - User Consumption - In August 2025, the output of end - user products showed mixed performance. The output of integrated circuits decreased in August, while the monthly output of electronics and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the output of air conditioners decreased, while the output of color TVs and washing machines slightly increased [77]. - In August 2025, the consumption of home appliances and new energy decreased month - on - month [79]. - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing the same trend as tin prices [84].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：关税战再起，避险刺激接力；白银：关注海外逼仓情况 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 价格区间：870-930元/克、10500-11590元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升2.29%，伦敦银回升6.63%。金银比从前周的82.2回落至79.1，10年期TIPS回落至1.75%，10年期名义利率回落至4.05%（2 年期3.52%），美元指数录得98.82。 ◆ 假期后沪金高开，最高达到921元/克，继续创出历史新高。从驱动来看，假期间海外事件扰动不断，首先是美国政府关门事件，由于两党法案 没能达成一致导致美国政府出现7年来首次被迫关门。此外，欧洲时区对黄金的买兴同样热情，法国 ...