Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy stance is prudent and steady with new focuses on supporting small - and micro - enterprises and stabilizing foreign trade. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year in August, with equipment manufacturing leading the growth and profits of enterprises of different sizes improving. The market may have expectations for further policies as the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is approaching. During the National Day holiday, gold reached a record high due to yen depreciation and rising US dollar index, domestic travel and consumption recovered moderately. After the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points but then had a sharp correction, especially in the semiconductor sector. Leveraged funds were active, and the total A - share trading volume rebounded to 2.5 trillion after the holiday. Most broad - based indexes rose in the four trading days around the National Day, with CSI 500 rising over 2% and others having 1 - 2% increases. The ChiNext Index quickly declined. In terms of basis, recent basis fluctuations were large, with the basis of IC and IM widening significantly and annualized basis rates reaching around 9% and 13% respectively [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and strengthening respectively next week [4] 2. Recent Forecast Conclusion - For IH and IF, the actual basis changes are shown in the range from - 1.00% to - 0.25%, and for IC, the actual basis changes are shown in the range from - 1.00% to 1.00% [3] 3. This Week's Review - The central bank's Q3 regular meeting before the National Day did not provide guidance on incremental easing measures. The 8 - month industrial enterprise profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year. The Politburo meeting in September discussed the "15th Five - Year Plan". During the National Day, gold hit a record high, domestic consumption recovered moderately. After the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points and then corrected, especially in the semiconductor sector. Leveraged funds were active, and the total A - share trading volume rebounded to 2.5 trillion. Most broad - based indexes rose around the National Day, and the ChiNext Index declined. The basis of IC and IM widened significantly [2]

全球阿拉比卡咖啡市场的结构性矛盾持续凸显。拉长周期来看，虽然价格创出历史新高，但是阿拉比 卡咖啡产量仍低于历史最高产量，阿拉比卡咖啡产量占比逐年下降的趋势更加明显。USDA 预计 25/26 年 全球阿拉比卡咖啡产量较历史最高产量 630 万吨（18/19 年）低 47 万吨（-7.53%），罗布斯塔咖啡产量 则创出历史新高。从消费结构来看，近年现磨咖啡消费快速增长，对阿拉比卡咖啡的需求旺盛。一方面是 产量下降，另一方面是需求增长，阿拉比卡咖啡市场的结构性矛盾持续凸显。 2025 年 10 月 10 日 咖啡：结构性矛盾凸显 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 尹恺宜 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 | yinkaiyi@gtht.com | | 李隽钰 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 | lijunyu@gtht.com | 报告导读： 2023 年 4 季度以来，在全球农产品价格震荡下行至生产成本附近的大背景下，ICE 美国咖啡价格逆势 大幅上涨并创出历史新高，目前仍处于历史 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the daily data briefing of non - ferrous metals and precious metals on October 9, 2025, including the closing prices, basis, inventory, and import and export profit and loss of various metals such as gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin. 3. Summary by Metal Type Gold (AU) - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai gold futures (both main and near - month contracts), COMEX gold futures, London gold spot, and Shanghai Gold Exchange spot gold are presented. For example, the Shanghai gold main contract closing price on October 9, 2025, was 39.92 yuan/gram [1]. - **Basis**: Domestic basis (gold T + D - main contract) and overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) are given, showing different values on different dates [1]. Silver (AG) - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai silver futures, COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot are provided. For instance, the Shanghai silver main contract closing price on October 9, 2025, was 11169 yuan/kilogram [1]. - **Basis**: Domestic basis (AG(T + D) - main contract) and overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) are shown with corresponding values [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - **Prices**: Closing prices of Shanghai copper futures (main and continuous contracts), international copper futures, LME copper 3M, and COMEX copper main contract are included. The Shanghai copper main contract closing price on October 9, 2025, was 86750 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Month - to - month spreads (CU00 - CU01, BC00 - BC01), LME copper 0 - 3 spread, and various spot spreads (regional and variety) are presented. Also, inventory data (Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper) and import and export profit and loss data are given [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - **Prices**: Closing prices of Shanghai aluminum futures, alumina futures, LME aluminum 3M, and COMEX aluminum main contract are provided. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closing price on October 9, 2025, was 385 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Month - to - month spreads (AL00 - AL01, A000 - A001), LME aluminum 0 - 3 spread, and regional spot spreads for electrolytic aluminum and alumina are shown. Inventory data and import and export profit and loss data are also included [1]. Zinc (ZN) - **Prices**: Closing prices of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc 3M are presented. The Shanghai zinc main contract closing price on October 9, 2025, was 22315 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Month - to - month spread (ZN00 - ZN01), LME zinc 0 - 3 spread, regional spot spreads, and import and export profit and loss data are given. Inventory data for Shanghai zinc and LME zinc are also provided [1]. Lead (PB) - **Prices**: Closing prices of Shanghai lead futures, LME lead 3M are shown. The Shanghai lead main contract closing price on October 9, 2025, was 250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Month - to - month spread (PB00 - PB01), LME lead 0 - 3 spread, and Shanghai spot spread for refined lead are presented. Inventory data and import and export profit and loss data are included [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - **Prices**: Closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures, stainless steel futures, LME nickel 3M are provided. The Shanghai nickel main contract closing price on October 9, 2025, was 3030 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Month - to - month spreads (NI00 - NI01, SS00 - SS01), LME nickel 0 - 3 spread, and regional spot spreads for nickel are shown. Inventory data and import and export profit and loss data are also given [1]. Tin (SN) - **Prices**: Closing prices of Shanghai tin futures, LME tin 3M are presented. The Shanghai tin main contract closing price on October 9, 2025, was 287090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Month - to - month spread (SN00 - SN01), LME tin 0 - 3 spread, and Shanghai spot spread are shown. Inventory data and import and export profit and loss data are included [1].

豆粕/豆一基本面数据 品 研 2025 年 10月 10 日 右安期赏研 | | 豆粕: al | | --- | --- | | 吴光静 | 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 | | 收盘价(日盘) 涨跌 | 收盘价(夜盘) | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511(元/吨) 3975 +46 (+1. 17%) | 3960 | +0 (+0. 00%) | | 期货 | DCE豆粕2601(元/吨) 2939 SU +6 (+0. 20%) | 2929 | -5 (-0. 17%) | | | CBOT大豆11(美分/蒲) 1021. 75 -8.0 (-0.78%) | | | | | na CBOT豆粕12(美元/短吨) 276.6 -1.5 (-0.54%) | | | | | 豆粕(43%) | | | | | 2950~2980. 较节前+10或持平:现货基差M2601+20/+40/+50. 持平:11月 山东(元/吨) M2601+30,持平:11-1月M2601+40 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - PTA: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - MEG: Reverse calendar spread for 1 - 5 months [1] 2. Core Views - PX: After the holiday, the polyester industry chain's production and sales remained sluggish. Due to the continuous high - temperature affected by the subtropical high in the south, the start - up time of autumn and winter orders was later than usual. The inventory of polyester filament accumulated again after the holiday, and the industry chain was in a negative feedback pattern. With the overnight decline in oil prices, PX valuation is weak [8]. - PTA: After the holiday, the maintenance of Hengli's 1 unit was implemented, but the supply in the East China region was still in excess. There were still pressures on domestic and export demand for textiles and clothing, and the market was waiting for the repair of autumn and winter orders [8]. - MEG: After the holiday, the operation of coal - based ethylene glycol plants resumed. Regarding oil - based plants, Yulong Petrochemical had a short - stop, and the subsequent resumption time should be monitored. During the National Day holiday, the port arrivals were high, and the inventory accumulated by about 80 thousand tons after the holiday. Supply pressure will gradually emerge, and the short - term trend remains weak [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: A 1.13 - million - ton PX unit in South Korea and a 0.55 - million - ton PX unit in Malaysia restarted around early October. A 0.26 - million - ton PX unit in a Japanese factory was shut down for maintenance as planned in early October, expected to last until the end of November [1]. - PTA: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA unit in the Northeast started planned maintenance today. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA unit in the East China region reduced its load to 50 - 60% around October 7. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 74.4%. According to the calculation of PTA unit daily output / (domestic PTA production capacity / 365), the current PTA operating rate is around 80.2% [5]. - MEG: The port inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was about 507 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 98 thousand tons. From October 9 to October 12, the planned arrivals at the main ports totaled about 80 thousand tons. As of October 9, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 75.08% (a month - on - month increase of 2.00%) [6]. Polyester Production and Sales - Polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang: Today's production and sales were highly differentiated. As of around 3:30 pm, the average production and sales were estimated at about 50%. During the National Day - Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the overall production and sales were light, with an eight - day average of about 30% [7]. - Direct - spun polyester staple fiber: As of around 3:00 pm, the average production and sales were 67% [7]. Price and Spread Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures decreased by - 0.12%, - 0.22%, - 1.16%, 0.25%, and - 1.81% respectively [1]. - Spot: The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 2.5 dollars/ton, 45 yuan/ton, and 61 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Spot processing fees: The PX - naphtha spread increased by 4 dollars/ton, the PTA processing fee decreased by 4.44 yuan/ton, and the short - fiber processing fee increased by 38.73 yuan/ton [1]

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随油价偏弱 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 17 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡为主，不追空 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：成本端偏弱，关注低位反弹风险 | 23 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，现货价格存支撑 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：弱势仍在，短线进入调整 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：暂时弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：2-4正套轻仓入场 | 28 | | 短纤：短期低 ...

陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 2025 年 10 月 10 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银、铜期货将偏强宽幅震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱、豆油、棕榈油期货 将偏强震荡 原油、PTA、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4730 和 4750 点，支撑位 4689 和 4660 点；IH2512 阻力位 3040 和 3060 点，支撑位 3020 和 3003 点；IC2512 阻力位 7500 和 7550 点，支撑位 7 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is characterized by strong wait - and - see attitudes, with prices experiencing wide - range fluctuations. Steel procurement is expected to continue, and the steel procurement price is likely to decline, leading to a short - term weak market consolidation [1][3]. 3. Key Points from Different Sections Macro and Industry News - On October 9, 2025, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in various regions decreased, with the 72 FOB price ranging from 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton and the 75 FOB price from 1120 - 1150 dollars/ton. The northern and southern quotes of silicon - manganese 6517 were 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton and 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - In September 2025, the electricity price in Qinghai settled between 0.34 - 0.39 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 1 - 4 cents. After the holiday, steel procurement will continue, and the steel procurement price is expected to decline [1][3]. - According to South African trade statistics, in August 2025, the manganese ore export volume was 2408100 tons, a 16.27% month - on - month decrease and an 8.5% year - on - year increase. The export volume to China was 1774400 tons, an 8.82% month - on - month decrease and a 4.99% year - on - year increase [3]. - A Fujian group's silicon - manganese purchase prices in different regions decreased, with purchase volumes ranging from 400 - 800 tons [3]. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: For ferrosilicon 2511, the closing price was 5472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; for ferrosilicon 2601, it was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan. For manganese - silicon 2511, the closing price was 5768 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan; for manganese - silicon 2601, it was also 5768 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The ferrosilicon spot price was 5200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Differences**: The ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) was - 272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton; the manganese - silicon (spot - 01 futures) was - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity for ferrosilicon is 0, and for silicomanganese is also 0, indicating a neutral market trend [4].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 鸡蛋：现货弱势运行 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2510 | 2,650 | -8.97 | -29,994 | | -28,132 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,246 | -3.19 | 55,227 | | 7,040 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋10-12价差 | | -404 | | -262 | | | | 鸡蛋10-1价差 | | -596 | | -434 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.00 | | 3.40 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.49 | | 2.96 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 3.40 | | | | 湖北 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a positive investment rating for tin, with a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively bullish outlook [5]. 2) Core Viewpoint - The price of tin is accelerating upward [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 287,090 yuan, with a daily increase of 4.75%, and the night - session closing price was 287,400 yuan, with a night - session increase of 0.82%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 36,820 dollars, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased compared to the previous day, while the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased slightly and the open interest increased [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 5,851 tons, and the inventory of LME Tin was 2,390 tons, a decrease of 115 tons from the previous day. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 284,200 yuan, an increase of 7,000 yuan from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 283,600 yuan, an increase of 12,500 yuan from the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 57 dollars, an increase of 8 dollars from the previous day [2]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 7,000 yuan compared to the previous day. The prices of 63A and 60A solder bars also increased [2]. Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce issued four announcements regarding export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, and super - hard materials. - The US government shutdown remains unresolved, with the Senate rejecting the appropriation bill seven times. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release September CPI data during the government shutdown. - The US provided 20 billion dollars in financial support to Argentina, and the peso rose. - China's National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to regulate price competition. - The Israeli government approved a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. - Microsoft predicts that the shortage of data center supply will continue until 2026. - Altman said that OpenAI will have more major deals after those with Nvidia, Oracle, and AMD [3][4].