Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View - The document presents the average prices, price changes, and spot premium/discount data of various non - ferrous metals and related products on July 28, 2025 [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79,075, with a decrease of 375. The SMM flat - water copper premium/discount is 65, down 20 [1]. Aluminum - The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,660, a decrease of 120. The SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount is 0, down 10. The average price of alumina in Shanxi is 3,240 with no change, and the FOB average price of Australian alumina is 380 dollars with no change [1]. Lead - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,775, an increase of 25. The SMM 1 lead ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 135 with no change. The average price of recycled refined lead is 16,750 with no change, and the refined - scrap price difference is 25, up 25 [1]. Zinc - The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,650, a decrease of 120. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 0, up 20 [1]. Tin - The average price of SMM 1 tin is 268,800, a decrease of 2,300. The SMM 1 tin premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 410, up 510. The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 256,800, a decrease of 2,300, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan to SMM 1 tin is 95.54% [1]. Nickel - The average price of 1 imported nickel is 122,500, a decrease of 1,550. The average premium/discount of 1 imported nickel to the SHFE nickel contract is 400 with no change. The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 124,250, a decrease of 1,400, and the average premium/discount of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the SHFE nickel contract is 2,150, up 150 [1]. Silicon - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 10,350, a decrease of 150. The 553 silicon spot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,440, up 640. The average price of 421 silicon in Kunming is 10,200. The average price of polysilicon dense material is 0, the average price of granular silicon is 0, and the average price of N - type polysilicon material is 46.5 [1]. Lithium - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,900, an increase of 1,000. The battery - grade lithium carbonate premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 2,280, up 8,780. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,700, and the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 with no change [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylic: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Polyethylene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - PX: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, seasonal impacts, and policy uncertainties. Different chemical products face various challenges in supply, demand, and price trends [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined. There is no significant news, and supply is expected to increase due to device restarts. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and price support is limited [2] - Polyolefin futures also fell. For polyethylene, demand from the agricultural film industry is improving but slowly, and overall demand support is weak. For polypropylene, new capacity and reduced maintenance will increase supply, and downstream demand is sluggish [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices declined, following a weak trend. Supply - demand is decreasing, and port inventories are rising slightly. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter later stage but pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures faced resistance. Oil prices are in a sideways trend, supply is high, and downstream demand is stable but with poor spot trading [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices dropped, with limited fundamental drivers. PTA inventories are increasing, and processing margins need demand recovery [4] - Ethylene glycol prices decreased, affected by external factors and supply changes. Demand is stable, and inventories are slightly decreasing [4] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed raw material prices down. Short - fiber has a mid - term positive outlook, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity issues [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures tumbled. Coastal port inventories are unexpectedly decreasing, but imports are expected to increase, and the market may be weak in the long - term [5] - Urea futures declined. Agricultural demand is weakening, and the market is likely to trade in a range in the short - term [5] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell from a high. Supply is decreasing due to maintenance, and domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve [6] - Caustic soda prices weakened. Supply pressure is high in the long - term, and prices are expected to be under pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices hit the daily limit down. There is supply pressure, and it is a long - term short - selling target [7] - Glass prices also hit the daily limit down. Market sentiment is cooling, and prices are unlikely to rise significantly without supply reduction [7]

| | | | VY V & SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年07月28日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | ななな | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | 豆粕 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | | | 薬油 | な女女 | F0302203 Z0012037 | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆大幅减仓回调。本周中美贸易谈判牵动市场情绪，持续关注谈判结果。宏观方面在交易所不断提示和限仓措施下，国 内商品期货迅速降温，短期要注意商品的波动风险。政策方面本周国产大豆仍然举行竞价采购交 ...

| 《八� 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月28日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★★★ | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所回落,盘中价格触及震荡区间上沿。内地棉花现货基差偏稳。部分棉企报盘数量减少,下游纷企维持刚需采购。7 月上半月棉花库存去化速度有所效缓，截至7月15号，棉花商业库存为254.24万吨，环比6月减少28.74万吨。国内6月份棉花进 口延续偏低的趋势，2025年6月进口3万吨，再创近20年新低，同比降12.53万吨，环比降0.45万吨；20 ...

今日盘面大幅回落。螺纹表需环比回暖，产量小幅回升，库存低位小幅下降。热卷需求有所回落，产量继续下滑，库存小幅累 积。铁水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，成本抬升对钢价形成明显支撑。从下游行业看，地产投资继续 大幅下滑，基建、制造业投资增速放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，出口维持相对高位。 "反内卷"有所降温，由于近一段时间涨幅 较大，相关工业品全线大幅回落，短期相对承压，波动明显加剧，关注商品市场整体风向变化。 【铁矿】 铁矿 今日盘面走弱。 供应端，本期铁矿全球发运环比增加，强于去年同期水平，其中澳洲发运大幅反弹，巴西和非主流发运有 所回落。国内到港量本期继续回落，短期仍然受到前期海外发运季节性下滑的影响。需求端，终端需求淡季弱稳，钢厂盈利情 况较好，现阶段主动减产动力不足，上周铁水产量高位基本持稳。反内卷带来的乐观情绪有所降温，盘面波动开始加剧。铁矿 受反内卷直接影响较小，目前基本面变化不大，预计走势震荡为主。 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月28日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ...

市场延续上涨趋势，主要宽基指数全部收涨，周内科创 50（4.6%）、创业板指（2.9%）、中证 500（3.2%）、中证 1000（2.36%）上涨较多，上证 50、沪深 300 涨幅在 1%左右。 股市连续第 5 周上涨，上证综指站上 3600 点后震荡加剧， 持续消化止盈压力，中美经贸谈判进展、美联储议息会议是 短期关注焦点。美日、美欧经贸谈判落地，结果相对好于预 期，市场对中美谈判持乐观态度。市场预计美联储继续维持 利率不变，但态度会相对偏鸽。国内方面，持续的反内卷引 导，带动相关行业股价、大宗商品价格剧烈反弹，但上涨速 度偏快，短期有一定调整的可能。整体来看市场继续保持乐 观，持续上涨的行情吸引资金不断入场，指数整体走势偏强， 日内振幅也在合理范围之内，多头持仓感受较好。中美经贸 谈判和议息会议结果会对市场产生扰动，反内卷的具体效果 还有待观察。拉长时间来看，当前宽基指数估值依然较低， 经济刺激政策也逐渐发挥效果，美联储降息逐渐临近，RMB 汇率保持强势，内外部环境继续改善，继续保持谨慎乐观的 观点。 ⚫ 期权市场 从期权市场来看，由于市场连续上涨，金融期权隐波 （IV）继续上升，目前金融期权 IV ...

| Million | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月28日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属偏弱震荡。关税方面,上周美国相继与多个国家达成贸易协议,其中最关键的日本和欧盟税率均 为15%,另外要求加大对美投资。特朗普称将对大部分国家征收15%至50%的简单关税,美商务部长称8月1日 关税上调最后期限不再延长。中美即将迎来新一轮谈判,超预期对抗概率较低。地缘方面,上周泰国和柬埔 寨边境争议地区发生交火,双方均称对方先开火。美国总统特朗普致电两国领导人,施压要求立即停火否则 不会就关税进行谈判。双方已同意在马来西亚举行会谈。降息前景方面，上周美国公布多项经济数据仍偏 强,标普全球制造业PMI 虽有回落,但服务业PMI 创阶段性新高,周度初 ...

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ななな (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for a decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] - Polysilicon: なな☆ (No clear official star - based rating description provided) [1] Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as "anti - involution" themes, seasonal demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances in different industries. Different metals and industrial products show various trends, and investment strategies vary according to each product's characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Metals and Products Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper closed down, with the spot copper price at 79,075 yuan and the Shanghai flat - water copper premium at 65 yuan. The trading sentiment in the copper market is cautious. The resistance at the upper integer level of copper prices is significant. It is recommended to hold short positions with a light position [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, with the East China spot at par. In the off - season, the negative feedback of falling demand is obvious. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 35,000 tons in the past week. The upper resistance of Shanghai aluminum is at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative. In the short - term, the price is under pressure, but it has certain resilience compared to the aluminum price in the medium - term. The spot price difference between aluminum and casting aluminum alloy remains at about 1,000 yuan. If the price difference on the trading floor widens, consider a long AD and short AL strategy. Recently, the alumina price has risen sharply, and the industry profit has recovered. The production capacity and output have continuously increased, and the industry is in an oversupply state. It is recommended to take a short position near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [3] Zinc - After the fermentation of macro and capital sentiment, the zinc market returns to the fundamental logic. The supply of zinc ore has increased as expected, and the TC in August has further increased. The new production capacity of smelters has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to increase. The consumption has not improved significantly. The upper resistance of Shanghai zinc is at 23,000 yuan. It is recommended to take a short position on rebounds [4] Lead and Stainless Steel - Shanghai silver opened higher and closed lower on Monday. After the "anti - involution" theme hype cooled down, silver with relatively poor fundamentals may return to the fundamentals. The high - nickel iron price is 913 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened. The overall inventory is still at a high level. Wait patiently for the opportunity to take a short position [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed below 268,000 yuan, and the spot tin price was adjusted to 268,800 yuan. Overseas markets are concerned about the low inventory on the LME and are not optimistic about the long - term trend. Holders of short positions from the previous high can reduce their positions appropriately for risk control [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated and hit the daily limit down on Monday. The market rumor that some mining enterprises in Jiangxi have resumed production has affected the market. The total market inventory has reached a recent high of 143,000 tons. The production of the mid - stream has decreased by 3% month - on - month. Technically, the futures price of lithium carbonate is in a deep - water area of the rebound. Above 70,000 yuan, the hedging power increases. Short - sellers should manage their positions [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed down significantly. After the previous sharp rise, the market is in a stage of correction. The trading sentiment has cooled down. With the news of the self - disciplined clearance of small - furnace types in Sichuan, the policy guidance is still expected. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is not advisable to be unilaterally bearish [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures closed down significantly. The terminal is still observing. The monthly supply - demand of polysilicon - silicon wafers is in a tight balance. If the price reaches above 50,000 yuan, the production increase in August needs to be re - evaluated. The market is in a stage of wide - range fluctuation. The support level of PS2509 is temporarily seen at 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton. Due to strong policy uncertainty, it is not advisable to be unilaterally bearish. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11]

Report Investment Ratings - Index Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - As of the week ending July 25, index futures generally rose, with IH2507 up 1.14%, IF2507 up 1.87%, IC2507 up 3.55%, and IM2507 up 2.93%. Market sentiment improved, but off - market funds did not enter significantly, and the upward momentum declined marginally [1]. - From the high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for index futures, inflation scored 6, liquidity scored 7, valuation scored 11, and market sentiment scored 9. For Treasury bond futures, inflation scored 8, liquidity scored 10, and market sentiment scored 8 [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy rose 0.35% last week. In the long - term, weak industrial enterprise profits put some pressure on index futures. In the short - term, the low exchange rate due to the US dollar and relatively loose capital conditions led to a high but marginally declining market risk appetite. The overall comprehensive signal for index futures and Treasury bond futures was neutral and oscillating [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy indicators showed different changes. For example, the blast furnace开工率 dropped 2.99%, while the开工率 of automobile tires (all - steel tires) rose 6.30%. The index futures score was 7, and the Treasury bond futures score was 0 [2]. Inflation Indicators - Various inflation - related indicators had different weekly changes. For instance, the vegetable basket product wholesale price 200 - index rose 0.02%. The index futures score was 6, and the Treasury bond futures score was 8 [3]. Liquidity - Liquidity - related indicators such as DR007 and DR001 had certain percentage changes. The index futures score was 7 [4]. Index Valuation - Valuation indicators like PE (TTM) and PS (TTM) increased, while the dividend yield decreased. The index futures score was 10 [5]. Market Sentiment: Index - For the stock market, indicators such as margin trading balances and trading volumes changed. The index futures score was 9 [6]. Market Sentiment: Bond - Bond - related market sentiment indicators, including the yield of 10 - year government bonds and the volatility index, showed different trends. The Treasury bond futures score was 8 [7]. Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes index futures and Treasury bond futures. The strategy uses multi - strategy models for contract allocation, with short - term models focusing on high - frequency data and long - term models on low - frequency macro - economic data [18]. Prediction Signals - According to the short - term and long - term models, the prediction signals for different futures contracts were provided, and the comprehensive signals were calculated [19]. Last Week's Situation - The trading signals of different futures contracts on different days last week were presented, such as on July 25, the IC主力 had a signal of 1 [21]. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The strategy is based on the resonance of signals from the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor model decomposes the interest rate term structure into three parts, and the signals are classified into three types [22]. Market Quotes and Trading Signals - The trading signals of TF and T主力 contracts from July 21 to July 25 were given, showing different situations on different days [25].