Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core View - The US economy remains resilient with the weekly initial jobless claims at a new low since December, and multiple Fed officials oppose short - term interest rate cuts. Short - term risk - aversion sentiment has cooled due to Trump's delay in deciding on a military strike against Iran. However, gold shows resistance to decline. Given the US challenges to the global order, precious metals are expected to stay strong in the medium term, and a long - position strategy remains unchanged [1] Summary by Related Topics South American Situation - The US military has seized the sixth oil tanker related to Venezuela. The US is pressuring Mexico to allow cross - border anti - drug operations. Trump plans to visit Venezuela, and the Venezuelan opposition leader met with Trump, who refused to back his bid for power [2] Federal Reserve - Goolsbee believes the central bank should focus on reducing inflation due to a stable job market. Bostic thinks inflation is too high and tight policies are needed. Paulson supports keeping interest rates unchanged at the next meeting. Schmid sees little reason for a rate cut as monetary policy is not very tight. Daly thinks the policy is in a "good position" and adjustments should be cautious [2] International Monetary Fund (IMF) - IMF President Kristalina Georgieva emphasized the importance of central bank independence and supported Fed Chairman Powell, who is under investigation by the Trump administration [2]

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生物柴油政策消息是什么 美豆油强势上行，生物质柴油政策确定性的预期在增强 ———— 吴小明 投资咨询号：Z0015853 国投期货研究院 2026-01-16 对上述政策消息的理解如下 • | EPA建议的可再生义务量2023-2027年 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位十亿 RINs 规则中1确立的体积要求 | | | | | 拟议的要求量 | | 年份 | 2023 年 | 2024 年 | 2025 年 | 2026 年 | 2027 年 | | 纤维素生物燃料(单位十亿 RINs) | 0. 84 | 1.09建议降 | 1.38建议降 | 1.3 | 1.36 | | 为1.01 | | | 为1.19 | | | | 生物质柴油(单位十亿 RINs) | 4. 51 | 4.86 | 5. 36 | 7.12 | 7.5 | | 先进生物燃料(单位十亿 RINs) | 5.94 | 6.54 | 7. 33 | 9.02 | 9.46 | | 可再生燃料总计(单位十亿 RINs) | 20.94 | 21.54 | 22. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. The document mainly offers detailed data and charts regarding various financial products such as ETFs and indices, including price, implied volatility, and skew index information. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. 50ETF - 8 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 14 - 16, 2026, with the price dropping from 3.187 to 3.160, and the implied volatility of the current and next months showing a downward trend [1] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 58.30%, 24.00%, and 19.10% for the past year, and 54.30%, 29.20%, 24.10% for the past two years; the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 84.80%, 74.60%, 78.90% for the past year, and 75.60%, 65.70%, 68.90% for the past two years [1] - The skew index of the main contract month is 92.27 today [2] b. Shanghai 300ETF - 8 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 13 - 16, 2026, with the price fluctuating around 4.8 - 4.9, and the implied volatility of the current and next months also changing [3] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 73.40%, 32.20%, etc., and the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 90.70%, 82.40%, etc., for different time frames [3] - The skew index of the main contract month is 94.92 today [5] c. Shenzhen 300ETF - 8 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 14 - 16, 2026, with the price around 4.9, and the implied volatility of the current and next months changing [6] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 52.60%, 27.30%, etc., and the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 87.70%, 76.40%, etc., for different time frames [6] - The skew index of the main contract month is 93.04 today [11] d. Shanghai CSI 500ETF - 8 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 14 - 16, 2026, with the price around 8.3, and the implied volatility of the current and next months showing a downward trend [13] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 95.90%, 90.60%, etc., and the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 98.30%, 93.20%, etc., for different time frames [13] - The skew index of the main contract month is 90.61 today [17] e. Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - 8 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 14 - 16, 2026, with the price around 3.3, and the implied volatility of the current and next months changing [23] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 94.60%, 89.30%, etc., and the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 98.30%, 93.60%, etc., for different time frames [23] - The skew index of the main contract month is 87.84 today [28] f. ChiNext ETF - 8 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 14 - 16, 2026, with the price around 3.3, and the implied volatility of the current and next months showing a downward trend [29] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 64.80%, 63.60%, etc., and the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 75.90%, 75.10%, etc., for different time frames [29] - The skew index of the main contract month is 89.89 today [35] g. Shenzhen 100ETF - 8 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 14 - 16, 2026, with the price around 3.5, and the implied volatility of the current and next months showing a downward trend [39] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 62.00%, 44.00%, etc., and the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 73.80%, 72.90%, etc., for different time frames [39] - The skew index of the main contract month is 89.29 today [42] h. Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - 8 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 14 - 16, 2026, with the price around 1.5 - 1.6, and the implied volatility of the current and next months changing [48] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 80.80%, 76.80%, etc., and the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 84.80%, 84.30%, etc., for different time frames [48] - The skew index of the main contract month is 26.92 today [50] i. STAR 50ETF - 8 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 14 - 16, 2026, with the price around 1.5 - 1.6, and the implied volatility of the current and next months changing [53] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 65.30%, 65.20%, etc., and the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 77.60%, 78.40%, etc., for different time frames [53] - The skew index of the main contract month is 71.44 today [59] j. 300 Index - 21 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 14 - 16, 2026, with the price around 4700 - 4800, and the implied volatility of the current and next months changing [64] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 52.20%, 56.30%, etc., and the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 88.10%, 80.40%, etc., for different time frames [64] - The skew index of the main contract month is 89.05 today [67] k. 1000 Index - 21 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 14 - 16, 2026, with the price around 8200 - 8300, and the implied volatility of the current and next months changing [68] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 77.50%, 82.80%, etc., and the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 88.10%, 82.40%, etc., for different time frames [68] - The skew index of the main contract month is 90.85 today [72] l. SSE 50 Index - 21 - day price, daily change, and implied volatility data from January 14 - 16, 2026, with the price around 3000 - 3100, and the implied volatility of the current and next months changing [78] - The current - month implied volatility quantiles are 65.70%, 40.80%, etc., and the next - month implied volatility quantiles are 97.10%, 94.20%, etc., for different time frames [78] - The skew index of the main contract month is 90.69 today [83]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆, meaning it is bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the market is not very operable [1] - Coke: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, indicating that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆, suggesting it is bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the market is not very operable [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆★, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] Report's Core View - The overall market sentiment is cautious, and the supply-demand contradictions in various sectors are not significant. Different products are expected to have different trends, mainly including interval oscillations, weak oscillations, etc., and it is necessary to pay attention to market trends, policy expectations, and cost support [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's market rose first and then fell. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel increased slightly, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down. The demand for hot-rolled coil improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. Steel mill profits have marginally recovered, but due to insufficient downstream carrying capacity, blast furnace复产 has slowed down, and molten iron production has declined. From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Overall domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports reached a new high in December. The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, and the market sentiment is cautious. The market is expected to oscillate within an interval in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today's market oscillated weakly. On the supply side, global shipments have seasonally declined month-on-month, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remains high in the short term, and port inventory continues to show an accumulation trend. The structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season has improved month-on-month. This week, molten iron production stopped increasing and started to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment demand still exists. The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating, and the fundamental situation of iron ore itself is relatively loose. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of intensified high-level fluctuations [3] Coke - The price oscillated downward during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been proposed and is expected to be implemented next week. Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly decreased, and coke inventory has slightly increased. The purchasing intention of traders has improved. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing raw material prices is still strong. The coke market is at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, under the influence of the increase in total coking coal inventory and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data, coke is likely to follow a weak oscillation trend [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated downward during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,440 trucks. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the spot auction transactions have improved. Driven by the increase in the market price, the transaction price has also increased, and the terminal inventory has increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly decreased, reflecting the market's winter storage actions. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing raw material prices is still strong. The coking coal market is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, under the influence of the increase in total inventory and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data, the price is likely to oscillate weakly [6] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated downward during the day. Driven by the rebound in the market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase. The spot transaction prices of manganese ore have all increased last week. On the demand side, molten iron production has decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly decreased, and the silicon manganese inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support strength [7] Silicon Iron - The price oscillated downward during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee has increased, and there are certain expectations for a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, molten iron production has rebounded to a high-level range. The export demand has decreased to over 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has marginally increased. Overall, the demand still has resilience. The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support strength [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Zonglvyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Yumi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Shengzhu: ★★★ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows different trends, with some products in a state of shock adjustment, while others are affected by factors such as policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships [2][3][5] - Different investment strategies are proposed for various agricultural products based on their current situations and future trends [2][5][8] Summary by Related Categories Soybean (Douyi) - Domestic soybeans are in a state of shock adjustment with a slowdown in the decline. The sales volume and price of Jilin trade - grain soybeans are good. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, but the demand is relatively cautious after price increases. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the spot market [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures continue to decline. Brazil's 2026 soybean production is expected to increase by 2.5% compared to 2025. The US government is weighing biofuel quotas. South American bumper harvest expectations have returned as the main trading logic, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [2] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The US government's upcoming announcement of biofuel blending obligations has boosted US soybean oil and domestic soybean oil, with palm oil following. The upper limit of soybean and palm oil prices is constrained by the expansion of global oil supplies, while the lower limit is supported by the expansion of global biodiesel demand. Overall, they are in a range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the risk of boundary failure [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures show a pattern of strong oil and weak meal. Rapeseed oil prices are affected by US biofuel policy expectations. The rapeseed market faces a contradiction between short - term supply shortage and medium - term import policy uncertainties. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see attitude [5] Corn - Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low, while the national corn spot price was stable with a slight increase. CNGC's increased procurement has boosted market confidence. Short - term futures will be mainly in a wide - range shock, and seasonal risks should be noted later [6] Live Pigs - Near - month live pig contracts are in shock, while far - month contracts are significantly weaker. The spot market is stronger in the north and weaker in the south, with a slight overall increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter rhythm may accelerate, and pig prices are expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [7] Eggs - The egg futures market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. The spot price has risen significantly. Low chicken - chick replenishment in the past few months will lead to a low number of newly - laid hens in the first half of 2026. With the supply shrinking and demand rising, it is recommended to adopt a long - low - allocation strategy or a long - near - short - far strategy for the first - half - year contracts in 2026 [8]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Iran tensions ease, geopolitical risk premium declines, and short - term oil price increase is limited due to significant inventory pressure in Q1 2026 [1] Precious Metals - US economic data shows resilience, Fed officials oppose short - term rate cuts, and precious metals remain strong due to the tense Iran situation [2] Copper - Copper price adjusts overnight, with an increase in SHFE copper warehouse receipts. The strategy of selling call options at high levels is preferred [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum continues to adjust. There is a short - term fundamental divergence, and caution is advised for speculation. Aluminum plants can consider selling hedging [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The spread between it and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [5] Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, in significant surplus. Sell on rallies when the spread is low [6] Zinc - LME's decision triggers a short - term bull market, but the supply - demand relationship remains unchanged. There is a need for volatility reduction, and opportunities to sell call options and short on rallies are recommended [7] Lead - The market is bullish, but the upside of Shanghai lead is constrained. It is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is strongly oscillating, and stainless - steel market is active. Short - term sentiment is high, and buying on dips is recommended [9] Tin - Shanghai tin declines with reduced positions. Observe its adjustment resilience, and continue to sell call options with high strike prices near expiration [10] Lithium Carbonate - The market is active, with a change in the sales strategy of upstream lithium salt plants. The futures price is strong but highly uncertain [11] Industrial Silicon - There are expectations for the technological transformation of 12,500kva furnaces. It is expected to oscillate mainly due to weak demand [12] Polysilicon - It oscillates around 48,000 yuan/ton. The trading logic has changed, and caution is advised [13] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel prices oscillate at night. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the market will continue to oscillate in the short term [14] Iron Ore - The supply is seasonally decreasing, and demand is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. It will mainly oscillate with high - level volatility risks [15] Coke - The price oscillates. Carbon supply is abundant, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [16] Coking Coal - The price oscillates. Carbon supply is abundant, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [17] Manganese Silicon - The price rebounds from the bottom. Manganese ore prices rise, and buying on dips is recommended [18] Silicon Iron - The price rebounds from the bottom. Affected by policies, demand is resilient, and buying on dips is recommended [19] Group 3: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - Airlines are reducing prices to compete for cargo, and the 04 contract is driven by expectations. It will oscillate with spot sentiment [20] Group 4: Fuels and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil drops with crude oil due to eased Iran tensions. Geopolitical factors will continue to affect the market, and high - sulfur cracking spreads may remain strong [21] Asphalt - Asphalt follows crude oil with limited amplitude. Pay attention to Venezuelan crude oil arrivals [22] Urea - The spot price rises continuously, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [23] Methanol - The geopolitical risk eases, and the market has intensified long - short competition [24] Pure Benzene - It follows the oil price decline. Supply is sufficient, and it will oscillate in the short term with large de - stocking resistance in the long term [25] Styrene - Supply - demand is in tight balance, and exports are good. Pay attention to the oil - price risk [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Supply is tight, and downstream demand is good. However, pay attention to the oil - price risk [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC weakens at night. It may go through capacity reduction in 2026. Caustic soda is weak with high inventory [28] PX and PTA - They decline with the oil price. PX can be allocated long after adjustment, and PTA's processing margin is moderately restored [29] Ethylene Glycol - Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. It is recommended to focus on波段行情 [30] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber demand weakens, and bottle - chip price follows the raw - material decline with capacity pressure [31] Glass - It is weak. It is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation, and buying on dips can be considered in the long term [32] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - Demand recovers, natural rubber supply decreases, and synthetic rubber supply increases. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [33] Soda Ash - It is weak with high supply pressure. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [34] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The US may determine biofuel quotas in March. South American harvest is expected to be good. Observe the US biofuel policy and South American weather [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - They are expected to oscillate in a range. The upper and lower limits are affected by supply expansion and bio - diesel demand, respectively [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The market is optimistic about the improvement of China - Canada rapeseed trade, and rapeseed prices are expected to be weak this week [37] Domestic Soybean - It stops falling and rebounds. The supply of high - quality soybeans is tight, and demand is cautious [38] Corn - Dalian corn futures oscillate at a high level, and the main driving factor is unclear. It will oscillate widely in the short term [39] Pig - The futures price oscillates. Pig prices may hit a low in H1 2027. Watch the supply - demand game before the Spring Festival [40] Egg - The egg futures price rises with reduced positions. Supply is expected to decrease and demand to increase in H1 2026, and long - near and short - far strategies are recommended [41] Cotton - US cotton falls slightly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates at a high level. It may continue to adjust, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [42] Sugar - International sugar production varies. Zhengzhou sugar rebounds, but the rebound may be limited due to a strong production increase expectation [43] Apple - The futures price is high. The market focuses on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [44] Timber - The price is low. Low inventory provides some support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [45] Pulp - The futures price falls. The short - term fundamentals are average, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [46] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares oscillate with reduced volume. The "Spring Market" may continue, and pay attention to the shift of the upward driver [47] Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures perform differently. The bond market may oscillate, and consider the opportunity to flatten the yield curve [48]

白糖:先抑后扬，关注天气风险 国投期货研究院 黄维 投资咨询号: Z0017474 MM. 国投期货 ///////////////// 25/26季度巴西继续丰产 Comment & R. B. 巴西甲南部紧计目慌产量 ► 2025年4月16日-2026年3月30012024年4月16日-2025年3月30日 百万吨 - - 2023年4月16日-2024年3月30回 2022年4月16日-2023年3月30日 700- 600 500 400 国投期货 300 200 100 8月 11月 9月 11月 11月 11月 12月 12月 11月 11月 11日 2月 6月 7月 5月 4月 数据来源: Unica · 截至2025年12月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计甘蔗入榨量为59818.6万吨，同比下降2.36%; 甘蔗ATR为138.38千 克/吨蔗，同比下降2.21%; 累计制糖比为50.91%，同比增加2.72个百分点；累计产乙醇302.75亿升，同比下降 5.37%；累计产糖量为4015.8万吨，同比增加0.86%。 · 虽然单产下降导致甘蔗入榨量减少，但是巴西中南部主产区的制糖比例较高，导致食糖产 ...

国投期货研究院 黄维 投资咨询号: Z0017474 :销售压力仍存，价格震荡向下 lling - 国投期货 2025年苹果去库较快，库存偏低 苹果主力合约收盘价 苹果主力合约收盘价 · 销售初期，甘肃苹果价格同比下降较多，而苹 果质量较好，甘肃货源的性价比较高，出货较 快，春节前后甘肃货源就已经销售殆尽。前期 销售较快的另一个原因是24/25季度苹果收购成 本较低，2024年新季苹果收购价格明显低于去 年同期，山东、陕西、甘肃三大主产区收购价 格均低于去年0.7-1.0元/斤。 入库成本较低，利 于消化去库。 由于销售较好，客商对高价货源的接受意愿有 所提高，价格和需求形成良性循环，苹果价格 持续上涨。4月初，一股强冷空气袭击西北苹果 产区，由于天气风险增加，苹果期价大幅增仓 上行。 不过，此次降温对苹果的影响不大。 · 2025年苹果期价震荡上行。年初价格有所回落, 最低跌至6602点，随后价格一路上行，最高上 涨至9796点，涨幅为48.38%。 · 24/25季度苹果去库进度较快。销售初期，果农 销售积极性较高，以顺价走货为主，冷库出货 较为顺畅。2023、2024年苹果价格持续下跌， 市场情绪较为悲 ...

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