Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propene, plastic: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Pure benzene, styrene: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle chips, methanol, soda ash: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Urea, PVC, glass: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Caustic soda: ★★★★, not clearly defined in the star - rating description but presented in the table [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows mixed trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price movements. Some products are in a weak position due to factors like increased supply and weak demand, while others have signs of improvement in trading volume or short - term support [2][3][5] Section Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propene futures dropped to a new low for the year. Producers want to stabilize the market, and downstream purchases increased with better trading volume [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures were weak. Polyethylene faced post - holiday inventory build - up, and price cuts couldn't boost sales significantly. Polypropylene will have more supply due to new capacity and less maintenance, with poor downstream orders and high inventory [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene market declined, with larger drops in the unified benzene disk and spot prices. High imports are a major pressure. The benzene - styrene futures fell, with cost support weakening, but short - term supply - demand improved slightly [3] Polyester - PX supply decreased due to maintenance, while PTA supply is expected to increase. The polyester industry has a weak outlook with potential inventory build - up for PTA. Ethylene glycol inventory continued to rise, and its price depends on raw materials. Short - fiber had good inventory reduction and was bullish in the short - term. Bottle chips' demand will weaken with the cooling weather and face long - term over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports at coastal areas may slow down, but port inventory is still affected by high planned arrivals. Domestic production is high, and demand is weak, with short - term policy - driven market fluctuations and long - term price increase expectations [6] - Urea futures are in a narrow range. Supply is abundant due to weather - affected demand, but exports may support prices, and the market will continue to oscillate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC supply decreased slightly but remained high. Domestic demand was stable, and exports were good in September but may face policy pressure. It may trend weakly [7] - Caustic soda production decreased due to maintenance, and inventory dropped. Downstream demand is uncertain, and short - selling should be cautious due to high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply was high despite a small production decline. Downstream demand growth was limited, and it's advisable to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass prices continued to fall with inventory build - up. Supply was high, and demand was weak. The decline may be limited at low valuations, and selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The commodity market may fluctuate in the short - term due to uncertainties such as Trump's trade policy, Sino - US trade negotiations, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical situations. The precious metals sector has strong potential, while other sectors have different trends [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance Review - The commodity market declined by 1.14% last week. Only the precious metals sector rose by 10.76%, while the non - ferrous, agricultural products, black, and energy - chemical sectors fell by 1.07%, 1.52%, 1.66%, and 3.43% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased with a narrowing margin, and the precious metals and energy - chemical sectors had significant volatility increases. The overall market scale increased, with only the non - ferrous sector having net capital outflows, mainly concentrated in Shanghai copper [2][6]. - Among specific varieties, gold, silver, and soybean No.1 had the highest gains of 10.9%, 10.53%, and 2.03% respectively, while glass, crude oil, and fuel oil had the largest declines of 9.28%, 6.34%, and 5.54% respectively [6]. 2. Outlook for Different Sectors Precious Metals - The uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations strengthens the sector's hedging properties. Powell's statement that balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months strengthens the expectation of monetary easing, leading to a significant rise in the sector. The actual overall position of gold is at a low level, with potential for further growth. Short - term fluctuations may intensify [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The Fed's October Beige Book shows weakening consumer spending and a labor shortage. Domestically, the economy continues to improve. The raw material supply is tight, and inventory increases, with overall supply and demand remaining relatively loose. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, waiting for a clear macro - environment [3]. Black Metals - The apparent demand for rebar has recovered significantly after the holiday but is still weak year - on - year. Production continues to decline, and inventory has decreased. The high - level hot metal has slightly declined, and downstream carrying capacity is insufficient. With the contraction of steel mill profits, the pressure for steel mills to cut production increases, and the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain strengthens. The price of coking coal may be prone to rise and difficult to fall. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, with coking coal and coke relatively stronger [3]. Energy - Oil prices continued to decline last week. The US refinery utilization rate dropped sharply, causing crude oil inventory to increase by 352,400 barrels more than expected. The three major institutions' October reports raised the supply - demand surplus for this year and next year by 210,000 barrels per day and 460,000 barrels per day respectively. The easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation and Sino - US trade games have increased market risk - aversion. Oil prices may continue to be weak in the short - term [3]. Chemicals - For polyester products, the industrial chain may continue to be weak due to weak oil prices and weakening demand expectations. For building materials, PVC domestic demand is stable, but exports face policy pressure, and cost support is not obvious. Glass has high intermediate inventory pressure and continues to be under pressure [4]. Agricultural Products - The sales progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, and China has not purchased US new - season soybeans, putting pressure on US soybean prices. Domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, and soybean meal inventory is high. If Sino - US trade relations do not improve, soybean meal may fluctuate downward. The pattern of strong oil and weak meal may continue [4]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs had significant gains, with most having a weekly return rate of around 11%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 21.8244 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.76%. The trading volume increased by 204.56%. Other commodity funds such as energy - chemical, agricultural product, and non - ferrous metal ETFs had different performance trends [38].

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 10 月 20 日 全球主要资产表现 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250721 -20250725）-美日达成贸易协议 权益资 产价格上涨 大类资产运行周报（20250728 -20250801）-非农数据不及预期 权益资 产价格回落 大类资产运行周报（20250804 -20250808）-新一轮关税生效 权益资产 价格上涨 大类资产运行周报（20250811 -20250815）-俄美首脑会晤未达成协议 权益资产续涨 大类资产运行周报（20250818 -20250822）-鲍威尔表态偏鸽 美元指数 偏弱运行 大类资产运行周报（20250825 -20250829）-美联储独立性面临挑战 贵 金属价格收涨 大类资产运行周报（20250901 -20250905）- 8 月非农不及预期 权益资 产整体收涨 大类资产运行周报（20250908 -20250912）-美国通胀数据温和回升 风 险资产上涨 大类资产运行周报（20250915 -20250919）-美联储如期降息 美股周度 收涨 大类资产运行周报（20250922 -20250926）-美国通胀数据符合预 ...

统计局三季度生猪数据点评 ———— 杨蕊霞 投资咨询号：Z0011333 国投期货研究院 2025-10-20 10 月 20 日，统计局公布三季度经济数据。涉及生猪养殖方面，前三季度， 全国生猪出栏 52992 万头，同比增加 962 万头，增长 1.8%，增速较上半年提 高 1.2 个百分点，连续 3 个季度保持增长。猪肉产量 4368 万吨，同比增加 128 万吨，增长 3.0%。三季度末，全国生猪存栏 43680 万头，同比增加 986 万头， 增长 2.3%，环比增加 1233 万头，增长 2.9%。其中，能繁母猪存栏 4035 万 头，同比减少 28 万头，下降 0.7%，环比减少 9 万头，略降 0.2%。 能繁母猪存栏方面，9 月末能繁母猪存栏 4035 万头，同比减少 28 万头， 下降 0.7%，环比减少 9 万头，略降 0.2%。官方数据口径显示，9 月能繁母猪 环比前月下滑，与涌益咨询、上海钢联等咨询机构给出的样本数据趋势一致。由 于猪价持续下跌至低位，仔猪销售及生猪育肥环节目前均陷入亏损，9 月能繁母 猪环比下降，行业开始进入去产能周期。 三季度末，全国生猪存栏 43680 万头，同 ...

| Millio | 国投期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月20日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日金银暂时震荡波动有限。近期黄金飙涨来自于美联储降息预期升温、美联储独立性担忧、美国政府停 摆、贸易摩擦加剧等多重因素的共振，不过趋势性上行的核心依然是特朗普激进政策下美元信用体系冲击以 及全球政治经济格局的割裂。上周鲍威尔在费城的一个经济学会议上表示，自美联储在上月会议以来，经济 前景并未发生太大变化,目前不存在无风险的路径,通胀似乎仍在相当缓慢地持续上升,劳动力市场已显示 出显著的下行风险,未来数月可能停止缩表。此次鲍威尔发言释放偏鸽信号,停止缩表进一步强化宽松周期 预期，美联储本月继续25个基点降息基本板上钉钉。贵金属中长期上涨逻辑稳固，但金银冲向比 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年10月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | 女女女 | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 能 | ななな | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业砖 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 上周内外铜价宽幅震荡，LME周活动结束，责金属加速创高与铜大矿供损风险升温，使市场大多看好铜价。从金 铜比出发，已升至1986 ...

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆ (implies a certain upward trend but limited operability) [1] - Doupo: ★★★ (indicates a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Douyou: ☆☆☆ (suggests a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (shows a clear upward trend and good investment opportunities) [1] - Caipo: ★★★ (represents a clear upward trend and appropriate investment chances) [1] - Caiyou: ★★★ (implies a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ (suggests a slight upward trend but limited operability) [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ (indicates a slight upward trend but limited operability) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (implies a slight upward trend but limited operability) [1] Core Views - The overall supply of agricultural products shows different characteristics, with some having sufficient supply and high inventory, while others face supply bottlenecks or are affected by policy and demand factors [2][3][6] - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and global economic factors such as oil prices have an impact on the prices of agricultural products [4] - Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment strategies according to their own supply - demand fundamentals and market environments [3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybeans are strong, with the price continuing to rebound. The state - reserve auction of domestic soybeans was carried out twice this week, with the成交 changing from strong to weak. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is widening. US soybean prices may be pressured by demand [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal M2601 continued to decline with increasing positions. New - season US soybean sales are slow, domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is high. In a high - supply and high - inventory situation, if Sino - US trade does not ease, Dalian soybean meal may oscillate downward. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil continues to expand, and oils are stronger than soybean meal. Global crude oil prices are weak, and there are uncertainties in Sino - US trade. Palm oil has demand expectations in the Indonesian market, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory. Oils are expected to be more resilient in the medium - to - long term [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products declined today and were weaker than competitors. The inventory of domestic rapeseed along the coast is low, and the output of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is limited. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed is approaching, which will relieve supply concerns and put pressure on prices. It is recommended to focus on cross - competitor strategies with rapeseed products as short positions [6] Corn - The main contract of Dalian corn futures C2601 rose and then fell, down - 0.66%. Northeast corn is abundant, and the spot price is weak. In the future, the supply of new corn in the Northeast will increase, and Dalian corn may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs is differentiated, and the overall average slaughter price is stable. Piglet prices are falling, and sow inventory is expected to decline faster. The futures and spot prices deviate, and the futures market is weak [8] Eggs - Eggs continued to be pressured with increasing positions, and the far - month contracts fell more. The spot price rose due to bargain - hunting. However, there is a risk of further decline in egg prices in the medium term [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The mid - term trend of the crude oil market remains under pressure, but short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may shift to weak oscillations [2]. - Precious metals have a solid long - term upward logic but extremely high short - term volatility risks, so it is advisable to reduce positions and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. - For various non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends and trading strategies, such as copper and aluminum showing different price characteristics and trading suggestions [4][5]. - Steel products' market is affected by factors such as demand, production, and trade relations, with a complex trend [13]. - The shipping market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the future trend depends on factors such as the implementation of price increases and geopolitical situations [19]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand situations and corresponding trading strategies, such as fuel oil and asphalt [20][21]. - Agricultural products' market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade relations, and different products show different trends and trading suggestions, such as soybeans and oils [35][36]. - The financial market, including stock indexes and bonds, is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, economic data, and trade relations, and the market trends are complex [47][48]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices continued to decline. The Brent December contract fell 1.21%. The mid - term trend is under pressure due to increased surplus forecasts and geopolitical easing, but short - term downward momentum is weakening [2]. - **Precious Metals**: On Friday, precious metals finally adjusted. Gold prices dropped by $200, and silver was more volatile. The long - term upward logic is solid, but short - term volatility is high [3]. Metals - **Copper**: Last Friday, LME copper recovered intraday losses, showing resilience in low - level buying interest. The market is paying attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Shanghai copper shows strong resilience at the 84,000 yuan level [4]. - **Aluminum**: On Friday night, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The inventory has returned to seasonal destocking, and the short - term trend is to test the previous high resistance [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The Baotai spot price is 20,600 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the industry inventory is high, and it mainly follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory has increased significantly, and the supply surplus is obvious. The price is running weakly [7]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc has low inventory supporting high spot premiums, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The short - term trend is to be under pressure at the $3,080/ton level [8]. - **Lead**: LME lead has a 0 - 3 - month discount of $41.85/ton. The domestic short - term inventory is low, but the rebound space of Shanghai lead is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: Last Friday, LME tin's short - term decline reached below $34,500, and it closed above $35,000. Shanghai tin followed the decline. The inventory decreased last week, and short - term support is at 275,000 yuan [10]. Industrial Products - **Polysilicon**: The market is advancing in line with photovoltaic capacity control policies, but the policy implementation rhythm is uncertain. There is a risk of inventory accumulation if production cuts are not realized [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Xinjiang start - up rate has reached a new high this year, and the downstream demand is stable. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate [12]. - **Steel Products (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On Friday night, steel prices rebounded. The demand for thread has increased, and the production has decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil has also increased, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore futures price weakened. The supply has increased, and the demand may face pressure in the future. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating strongly. The second round of price increases has started. The inventory is decreasing slightly, and the price may be prone to rise [15]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating strongly. The production has increased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. The price may be prone to rise [16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is oscillating. The demand is stable, and the supply is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is oscillating. The demand is fair, and the supply is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [18]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The geopolitical situation is still unstable, and the Red Sea resumption of navigation is uncertain. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the overall trend is expected to oscillate [19]. Energy - Chemical - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil has tightened, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase. The low - sulfur market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention can be paid to short - selling high - sulfur cracking spreads and widening high - low sulfur spreads [20]. - **Asphalt**: The current supply - demand is in a tight balance, but there is an expectation of slight inventory accumulation at the end of 2025 [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The US propane export has decreased, and the inventory situation is mixed. The demand is expected to increase in the traditional peak season, but the actual demand has not increased significantly [22]. - **Urea**: The main contract is oscillating at a low level. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is likely to continue to be weak [23]. - **Methanol**: The import supply may be affected by sanctions, and the inventory situation needs attention [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has declined due to the fall in oil prices. The current fundamentals are okay, but the medium - term trend depends on oil prices and the external market [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is under pressure due to trade conflicts [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand follow - up is limited, so the price support is weak [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate weakly, and caustic soda needs to pay attention to the inventory and demand situation [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PX is temporarily shrinking, and the supply of PTA is expected to increase. The demand is expected to turn weak, and the prices are expected to be weak [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic start - up rate has decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation expectation has weakened. The short - term trend depends on the raw material market [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The sales of new - season US soybeans are slow, and the domestic supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter. If the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates, the supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate downward if the trade relationship does not improve [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of US soybeans needs to be tested under export pressure. The oil - meal price difference is widening, and the oil market is more resilient. Palm oil has production reduction expectations in the fourth quarter, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed inventory is low, and the supply is limited in the short term. But the arrival of Australian rapeseed may relieve the supply pressure [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean futures price is oscillating after a rebound. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is widening [38]. - **Corn**: The Northeast corn price has rebounded slightly, but the supply is expected to be abundant in the future, and the price may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Hogs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weak. The sow inventory is expected to be reduced, and the mid - term price may remain low [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is under pressure, and the spot price has started to decline. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium term [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton has rebounded slightly, and the demand may be weak. The domestic new cotton cost is around 14,000 yuan, and the demand is general [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. The new - season cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, and the price is under pressure [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price is oscillating. The domestic supply may remain low, and the demand is average in the peak season [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has rebounded slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. Attention should be paid to the port inventory [46]. Financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the stock market declined, and the futures index also fell. The market is affected by factors such as US bank credit problems, geopolitical situations, and Sino - US economic and trade relations. The market style may rotate [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price has risen. The domestic interest rate may oscillate widely at a high level, and the bond market is entering a repair stage [48].

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, and provides short - to medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, geopolitical factors, and policy expectations [2][3][4] - Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - US summit, the US government shutdown, and Sino - US trade frictions have significant impacts on the market, causing price fluctuations and uncertainties [2][3][44] - Many commodities face challenges such as high inventory, weak demand, and supply - demand imbalances, which affect their price trends [37][38][40] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight futures prices declined. Geopolitical risks decreased, and Sino - US trade frictions and inventory increases put pressure on the market. The medium - term outlook is bearish [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors affected prices. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Saudi's price forecast increased. In the traditional peak season, demand expectations are strong, and the market is gradually recovering from the low level [24] - **Asphalt**: Inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is tight. There is a slight inventory accumulation expectation at the end of 2025, and the support may weaken in the later Q4 [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver reached new highs. The US government shutdown and expected interest rate cuts support the long - term upward trend, but short - term volatility risks are high [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily, affected by trade tensions and inventory changes [4] - **Aluminum**: It is running strongly in the short term, testing the previous high resistance. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable [5] - **Zinc**: LME inventory is low, and the decline has slowed. The domestic market has support at the bottom but lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [8] - **Lead**: It is in a low - level and weak oscillation. The cost has strong support, and it is expected to fluctuate within a specific range [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are weak, and the fundamentals of stainless steel are poor. The market is affected by macro - factors and inventory changes [10] - **Tin**: High - position short positions can be held. There are resistance levels at certain price points [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds, and the market trading is light. It is in a low - level oscillation, waiting for a clear trend [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rises slightly, and the spot is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to production and cost factors [13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rebounds, driven by policy expectations. There is a risk of a callback due to high inventory and uncertain policies [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is in a recovery stage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating upward. The supply is abundant, and the downstream demand provides support. The market is affected by safety inspections and trade frictions [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. The demand is stable, and the supply is at a high level. They are affected by external trade frictions [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak [25] - **Methanol**: The import supply in coastal areas has slowed down, and the inventory in production enterprises has increased. It is necessary to pay attention to port inventory and trade disputes [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The current fundamentals are good, but the price may be dragged down by falling oil prices. The industry valuation is low [27] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is uncertain due to high inventory and trade conflicts [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The downstream is cautious in purchasing [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export is under pressure. Caustic soda demand has improved, and the price decline is limited [30] - **PX & PTA**: PX supply is temporarily reduced, and PTA supply is expected to increase. The overall demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is at the bottom of the range, and the market is affected by oil prices and trade relations [32] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand has improved, and bottle - chip has a good spot market but faces long - term over - capacity pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate downward if the Sino - US trade relationship does not improve [37] - **Edible Oils**: The market has certain resilience. Palm oil has a production reduction cycle, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory. It is recommended to buy at low prices after the price bottoms out [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The inventory is decreasing slowly, and the trade relationship between China and Canada needs attention [39] - **Soybeans**: The price of domestic soybeans is strong, and the price of imported soybeans may be affected by demand [40] - **Corn**: The price is at the bottom and is expected to gradually approach the bottom [41] - **Pigs**: The futures price is at a low level, and the spot price is rebounding. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the market has support in the medium - term [42] - **Eggs**: The spot price rebounds, and the futures price declines. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [43] - **Cotton**: The price is oscillating. The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The demand is weak in the peak season [44] - **Sugar**: The international supply is sufficient, and the domestic production expectation is good. The price is affected by weather and production in different regions [45] - **Apples**: The price is oscillating. The supply is stable, and the inventory may be higher than expected, so the price faces pressure [46] - **Wood**: The supply is low, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is small. It is recommended to wait and see [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The price is affected by inventory and overseas quotations [48] Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price is oscillating. The actual implementation of price increases needs to be observed [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is oscillating with volume contraction. The style may rotate, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium - term [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price rises, and the yield curve steepening may end. The market is expected to enter a repair stage [50]