Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a volatile performance. The US announced that the annual CPI rate in July remained flat at 2.7%, lower than expected, but the annual core CPI rate reached 3.1%, a five - month high and higher than expected. After the data release, the market maintained bets on the Fed to restart rate cuts in September. Trump urged rate cuts again. Focusing on the upcoming US - Russia leadership talks, market sentiment is facing fluctuations. In the volatile trend of precious metals, patiently wait for callback opportunities to lay out [1]. Other Summaries Statements from Different Figures on Interest Rate Cuts - Trump: Urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates immediately and considered filing a major lawsuit against Powell. Stated that tariffs did not cause inflation or other problems for the country, and consumers did not even pay these tariffs [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Suggested that the Fed should consider cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September [2]. - Fed nominee Milan: Pleased with the good inflation performance. Whether the nomination can be approved before the September meeting depends on the Senate [2]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin: There may be pressures on inflation and unemployment, and the balance between the two is unclear [2]. - Kansas Fed President Schmid: Tariffs have limited impact on inflation, which is a reason to keep policy unchanged rather than an opportunity to cut interest rates [2]. Expectations for the US - Russia Summit - The White House has downplayed expectations of a peace agreement being reached at the US - Russia presidential summit on Friday and stated that any agreement must involve Ukraine. White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that the meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin will be a "listening tour", and Washington cannot predict any specific results. The goal of the meeting is to better understand how to end the conflict after the meeting [2].

Report Summary 1. Company Background - Valterra Platinum, formerly Anglo American Platinum under Anglo American, was spun off on May 31, 2025, and listed in Johannesburg and London [1]. 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core View - The report presents Valterra Platinum's Q2 2025 production and sales data of platinum - group metals, showing a decline in overall production and sales compared to the same period last year, with varying performance across different mines [2][10][14]. 4. Specific Content Summaries 4.1 2025Q2 Platinum - Group Metal Mine Production - Total PGM (5E + gold) mined metal volume decreased by 9% year - on - year to 769,000 ounces, with platinum and palladium production down 17% and 10% respectively [2]. 4.1.1 Self - produced Mines - Amandelbult mine: PGM production dropped 55% to 70,200 ounces due to floods in February 2025. The annual production is expected to be 450,000 - 480,000 ounces, down from 580,000 ounces in 2024 [2][3]. - Mogalakwena mine: PGM production increased by 1% to 234,300 ounces due to higher concentrator output [4][5]. - Mototolo mine: PGM production rose 2% to 67,500 ounces, benefiting from a seven - day mining shift system and improved ore processing efficiency [5][6]. - Unki mine: PGM production decreased 2% to 53,800 ounces because of low ore grade and unstable power supply [6][7]. - Modikwa mine: Self - produced PGM increased 6% to 38,300 ounces, but the increase was partially offset by lower recovery rates [7][8]. 4.1.2 Purchased Mines - Total purchased PGM decreased 18% to 304,900 ounces. The change in Kroondal's ownership and processing method led to a significant year - on - year decline in purchased PGM. Modikwa mine's purchased PGM increased 6% to 38,300 ounces [8][9]. 4.2 2025Q2 Platinum - Group Metal Refined Production - Refined PGM production decreased 17% to 954,000 ounces year - on - year, mainly due to reduced self - produced ore supply and the exclusion of Kroondal's toll - processing volume. Platinum and palladium refined output decreased 18% and 23% respectively [10][13]. 4.3 2025Q2 Platinum - Group Metal Sales - PGM sales decreased 22% to 981,500 ounces year - on - year. After excluding Kroondal's data in Q2 2024, the decline narrowed to 17%. Platinum and palladium sales decreased 19% and 34% respectively [14][15]. 4.4 2025 Platinum - Group Metal Production Guidance - Valterra Platinum expects to produce about 2 million ounces of mined PGM, purchase 1 - 1.2 million ounces of concentrates, and refine 3 - 3.4 million ounces of PGM in 2025 [16].

Market Data Summary - **Commodities**: As of August 8, 2025, among commodities, coking coal had the highest weekly increase of 12.31% at a closing price of 1227.00, while crude oil had the largest decline of -7.22% at 489.80 [2]. - **Equities**: In the A - share market, the CSI 500 rose 1.78% to 6323.50, the SSE 50 increased 1.27% to 2789.17, and the S&P 300 was up 1.23% to 4104.97. Among overseas stocks, the Nasdaq Index climbed 3.87% to 21450.02 [2]. - **Bonds**: Chinese 10 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year government bonds declined by -0.51%, -0.88%, and -1.18% respectively, closing at 1.69, 1.41, and 1.55 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased 0.47% to 1.16, while the US dollar index dropped -0.43% to 98.27 [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, faster growth in July's US - dollar - denominated import and export year - on - year growth rates, and the extension of China - US trade negotiations. Bearish factors were the reduction of 800 million shares in ETFs tracking the S&P 300, and domestic economic deflation pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Out of 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were weak July credit data, expected central bank actions to balance funds, and weak US non - farm data. Bearish factors were potential new government bond supply and short - term equity market rebounds [4]. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were high US refinery operating rates, inventory reduction, and OPEC+ under - production in July. Bearish factors were potential US - Russia talks and downward - revised US non - farm data [5]. Agricultural Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were better - than - expected July MPOB data and increasing biodiesel demand. Bearish factors were large Indonesian palm oil inventories and reduced Indian imports [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were the suspension of China - US tariffs, expected domestic policies to boost demand, and weakening US dollars. Bearish factors were increasing global copper inventories and weak domestic demand [6]. Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved processing orders and policy expectations. Bearish factors were weak spot market transactions and high inventory pressure [6]. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were rising Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US non - farm data, and Chinese central bank gold purchases. Bearish factors were a key technical resistance level and potential Fed policy changes [7]. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved market sentiment on coal over - production checks and high iron - water production. Bearish factors were weak real - estate and infrastructure demand [7]. Core View The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodities, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It provides a comprehensive view of different sectors' supply - demand, policy, and macro - economic factors affecting commodity prices [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading floor operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, similar to aluminum, a balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, also a balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] Report's Core View - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have various price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper closed with a positive trend, with the spot copper price rising to 79,475 yuan. There was a premium in Shanghai and Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference was restored to 1,100 yuan. Due to the lower - than - expected US CPI in July, the dollar weakened. It is difficult for copper prices to effectively break through 79,500 yuan, and short positions are recommended on rallies [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the spot discount in East China narrowing to 20 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream开工 was in the off - season. The peak of aluminum ingot inventory may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising to 19,900 yuan. Alumina's operating capacity was at a historical high, the total industry inventory increased, and the market was in an oversupply state. There was adjustment pressure after yesterday's news hype [2] Zinc - The average price of SMM 0 zinc was 22,560 yuan/ton, with a discount to the near - month contract. Downstream demand was weak, and the term structure of Shanghai zinc was flattening. The domestic refined zinc inventory may continue to rise, and Shanghai zinc is expected to face pressure on rebounds. LME zinc inventory decreased, and the external market was relatively strong, making it difficult to open the import window. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - The refined and scrap lead prices were the same, and the cost support was strong. Consumption had no obvious improvement, and the upward momentum of lead prices was insufficient. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate widely, and long positions are recommended to be held with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme was coming to an end, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamental situation will return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel iron was basically stable, and the inventory of pure nickel and stainless steel decreased, but the overall inventory level was still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short positions are recommended [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed slightly lower at around 270,000 yuan, with a premium to the delivery month. The short - term upward trend was relatively stable. The low inventory in the external market provided support, and the domestic high social inventory had the motivation to reduce. Short - term long positions are recommended at low prices [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the market was active. The trading lacked a clear direction, and the long - liquidation was obvious. The spot price was 81,000 yuan. The downstream inquiry was active, and the spot market transaction improved. The total market inventory decreased slightly, and there was obvious transfer of goods ownership. Risk management should be noted due to abnormal price fluctuations [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon decreased with increasing positions, closing at 8,600 yuan/ton. The self - discipline of production capacity was difficult, and the sentiment was affected by related varieties. The inventory in the delivery warehouse increased significantly, and there was still hedging pressure at high levels. However, the expected increase in polysilicon production provided some demand support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased with decreasing positions, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton. The N - type re - feed price was stable. The production in August was significantly increased, and the inventory increase restricted the spot price increase. The PS2511 contract is expected to operate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and short - selling at the lower end of the range is recommended with caution [10]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年08月13日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价回落，布伦特10合约跌0.9％。上周美国API原油库存超预期增加151.9万桶，馏分油 库存亦录得增长,四季度旺季过后需求回落叠加OPEC+220万桶/天剩余产能完成回归,盈余幅度约 是前三季度的两倍，中期供需宽松压力始终存在。原油市场仍在等待美俄会谈带来新的方向指引， 而谈判的双向结果均将引发油价较大波动,本周暂以震荡行情看待,关注SC10合约虚值期权的双买 机会。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属表现震荡，美国公布7月CP1年率持平在2.7%略低于预期，不过核心CP1年率录得3.1%高 于预期为五个月高位,数据发布后市场维持美联储9月重启降息的押注,特朗普发文再度敦促降息。 聚焦本周美俄领导会谈，市场情绪面临波动，贵金属震荡趋势中耐心等待回调布局机会。 （铜） 隔夜铜价走高，中美延长现行关税政策，且美国7月CPI增幅低于预期，支持9月降息，美元走低， 美股再高。沪铜夜盘再临7.95万，关注今日现货报价。7月国内铜产出再创新高，市场预计8月环降 幅度不大。倾向铜价难有效突破7.95万,逢高空配。 (铝) ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年08月13日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价回落，布伦特10合约跌0.9％。上周美国API原油库存超预期增加151.9万桶，馏分油 库存亦录得增长,四季度旺季过后需求回落叠加OPEC+220万桶/天剩余产能完成回归,盈余幅度约 是前三季度的两倍，中期供需宽松压力始终存在。原油市场仍在等待美俄会谈带来新的方向指引， 而谈判的双向结果均将引发油价较大波动,本周暂以震荡行情看待,关注SC10合约虚值期权的双买 机会。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属表现震荡，美国公布7月CP1年率持平在2.7%略低于预期，不过核心CP1年率录得3.1%高 于预期为五个月高位,数据发布后市场维持美联储9月重启降息的押注,特朗普发文再度敦促降息。 聚焦本周美俄领导会谈，市场情绪面临波动，贵金属震荡趋势中耐心等待回调布局机会。 （铜） 隔夜铜价走高，中美延长现行关税政策，且美国7月CPI增幅低于预期，支持9月降息，美元走低， 美股再高。沪铜夜盘再临7.95万，关注今日现货报价。7月国内铜产出再创新高，市场预计8月环降 幅度不大。倾向铜价难有效突破7.95万,逢高空配。 (铝) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the domestic vegetable oilseed complex (菜系), recommending a long - position trading strategy [15]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has effectively blocked Canadian rapeseed from the Chinese market. While the final ruling may change, significant improvement in China - Canada economic and trade negotiations is needed for Canadian rapeseed to re - enter the Chinese market. This is positive news for domestic vegetable oilseed futures prices, with an expected short - term pattern of strong domestic and weak external markets [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Anti - Dumping Investigation and Preliminary Ruling - On September 9, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce launched an anti - dumping investigation into Canadian rapeseed. On August 12, 2025, it was preliminarily determined that Canadian rapeseed was being dumped, causing material damage to the domestic rapeseed industry, and there was a causal relationship between the two [2]. - Starting from August 14, 2025, importers are required to provide a 75.8% deposit to Chinese customs when importing Canadian rapeseed [4][9]. Policy Interpretation - The deposit is a temporary anti - dumping measure. The temporary anti - dumping measure period is generally no more than 4 months and can be extended to 9 months in special cases. The final anti - dumping tax will be determined by the State Council Tariff Commission based on the final investigation results [7][14]. - The final ruling is expected to be announced by March 9, 2026 at the latest. If the final ruling confirms dumping, there will be a "more refund, less no - supplement" policy. If the final ruling does not levy an anti - dumping tax, the deposit will be refunded [10][11][13]. Impact on the Market - The anti - dumping preliminary ruling has blocked Canadian rapeseed from the Chinese market. The final ruling may change, but significant improvement in China - Canada economic and trade negotiations is needed for Canadian rapeseed to re - enter the Chinese market. This news is positive for domestic vegetable oilseed futures prices, and it is expected that rapeseed trade will shrink after the decline in rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil trade between China and Canada [15].

注： 以报告当天的路透船期数据为准 ，数据单位： 万桶 2025/8/12 国投期货研究院化工组 庞春艳 Z0011355 王雪忆 F03125010 7月中东地区发运量4129.61万桶，环比增加1.01%；俄罗斯发运量531.8万桶，环比减少52.17%；美国装船量 149.77万桶，环比大幅减少；发运总量较上月减少1076.2万桶，环比下降18.28%。各大区中总到港量最高的地 区为东北亚，到港量为3139.35万桶，环比小幅增加。上月中国石脑油到港量为1303.24万桶，环比增加185.57万 市场概览 桶，其中来自中东地区的进口占比最高，为37.39%，来自南亚、东南亚以及地中海和北非地区的货源进口占比 有所提升，来自中东、俄罗斯的进口量均有所减少。 | | 俄罗斯发运 | 中东发运 | 美国发运 | 东北亚-中国 | 中东-中国 | 俄罗斯-中国 | 国亚-中国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月 | 1111.9 | 4088.3 | 687.18 | 133.09 | 511.17 | 212.29 | 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The multi - short ranking of commodities has changed significantly this week, with the divergence between energy and non - ferrous metals at the two ends increasing. Currently, the relatively strong sectors are non - ferrous metals and black metals, while the relatively weak ones are energy and agricultural products [2]. - The overall signals of different commodities vary. For methanol, the comprehensive signal turns neutral; for float glass, the comprehensive signal is neutral; for iron ore, the comprehensive signal turns bearish; for Shanghai lead, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Commodity Overall Situation - The divergence within the non - ferrous metals sector has increased. The time - series momentum factor of the non - ferrous metals sector remains high, but the position factors of varieties such as zinc and aluminum have declined, and the cross - sectional momentum divergence has expanded. The time - series momentum of the energy sector has dropped significantly [2]. Methanol - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.01%, the demand factor increased by 0.15%, the inventory factor rose by 0.12%, the spread factor weakened by 0.11%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal turns neutral [4]. - Fundamental factors: The import arrival volume has increased significantly, making the supply side bearish; the capacity utilization rates of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and MTBE plants have decreased, making the demand side neutral to bearish; the inventory of domestic methanol production enterprises has continued to decrease, making the inventory side bullish; the methanol futures 9 - 1 spread and the import profit factor have both released bearish signals, making the spread side neutral [4]. Float Glass - Strategy net value: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.32%, the spread factor increased by 0.39%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The capacity utilization rate of float glass is flat month - on - month, keeping the supply side neutral; the transaction volume of commercial housing in third - tier cities has increased slightly, making the demand side neutral; the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased, with the inventory side remaining bullish but the strength weakening; the spot price of the domestic float glass market has continuously released bearish signals, making the spread side bearish; the pre - tax gross profit of float glass made from steam coal and pipeline gas has declined, but the factor contribution is low, making the profit side neutral [7]. Iron Ore - Strategy net value: Last week, each factor remained unchanged. This week, the comprehensive signal turns bearish [7]. - Fundamental factors: The arrival volumes at Rizhao Port and Tianjin Port have increased significantly, strengthening the bearish feedback on the supply side; the daily average consumption of steel enterprises has decreased, with the demand side turning to bearish feedback but the signal remaining neutral; the inventory of imported trade ore at ports has accumulated, strengthening the bearish feedback on the inventory side; the spot price center has risen, and the freight rate from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao has increased slightly, maintaining the bullish feedback on the spread side [7]. Shanghai Lead - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor weakened and decreased by 0.23%, the synthetic factor weakened by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The price of SMM imported lead concentrates has gradually increased, making the supply side turn to bearish feedback; the LME inventory and SHFE futures warehouse receipts have both decreased, making the inventory side turn to bullish feedback; the average weekly near - far month spread of LME lead has expanded, making the spread side signal turn neutral [7].

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The oil market has a continuous inventory build - up pressure after the peak season, and different energy products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Investment strategies vary according to the specific conditions of each product [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Since the third quarter, global oil inventories have increased by 1.1%, similar to the first and second quarters. The supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is expected to double. After the geopolitical risk concerns eased last week, the market focused on the supply - demand bearish expectations. A double - buy strategy for out - of - the - money options of SC2510 is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals and weak shipping demand. Singapore's fuel oil inventory remains high. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected third - batch quota release and cost weakening. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by sanctions on Russia and Iran [3] Asphalt - In August, the profit difference between coking and asphalt has increased steadily, and refineries' willingness to switch to producing residue may rise. Supply pressure is limited, demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices. The BU crack is considered strong recently [4] LPG - The overseas export market is loose, but the recovery of East Asian chemical procurement provides support. Import volume has increased in early August. The refinery gas price has room to decline. The market is in a low - level oscillation after initially fulfilling the bearish expectations [5]