1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The olefin - polyolefin market has mixed trends. Propylene has inventory and supply - side support, while polyolefin has limited upward drivers [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market shows different situations. Pure benzene has a slight recovery, and styrene has limited upward drivers due to cost and supply - demand contradictions [3] - The polyester industry has a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Different products have different supply - demand and cost situations, and attention should be paid to oil price trends and demand recovery [4] - The coal - chemical industry has different trends in different regions for methanol, and urea is in the off - season with limited demand promotion [5] - The chlor - alkali industry has PVC with supply pressure and a weakening trend, and caustic soda with short - term supply reduction but long - term pressure [6] - The soda - glass industry has soda with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure, and glass with cost support and attention to low - buying opportunities [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures opened higher and fluctuated widely. Enterprises' low inventory and shutdown benefits boosted prices. Downstream demand was mainly rigid [2] - Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene supply changed little, and demand increased slightly. Polypropylene supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2] 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices recovered with the increase of domestic production, decrease of imports, and port de - stocking. It was suggested to conduct monthly spread band operations [3] - Styrene futures closed up, but cost support was weak, and supply - demand contradictions still existed, with limited upward drivers [3] 3.3 Polyester - The polyester industry chain moved up slightly. PTA supply - demand was weak, PX had a positive outlook in the third quarter, and attention should be paid to oil price and demand [4] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded slightly, with increasing industry start - up and expected demand recovery. Medium - term attention was on demand [4] - Short fiber supply - demand was stable, and it was suggested to be long - allocated in the medium - term. Bottle chip orders improved, but capacity over - supply was a long - term pressure [4] 3.4 Coal - chemical - Methanol fluctuated narrowly. Coal price increase compressed profits in the northwest, and there were differences between inland and port supply - demand situations. Attention was on downstream demand [5] - Urea was in the agricultural off - season, with increasing compound fertilizer start - up but limited demand promotion. It was expected to fluctuate in a range [5] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC had supply pressure and was expected to have a weakening trend. Caustic soda had short - term supply reduction but long - term supply pressure [6] 3.6 Soda - Glass - Soda was affected by environmental news, with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure [7] - Glass had cost support, and it was suggested to consider low - buying near the cost [7]

| | | | Million | 国投前货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月12日 | | 棉花, | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ★☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | 女女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，棉花现货主流销售基差暂稳,现货成交一般。棉纱市场气氛一般,交投变化不大。近期郑棉连续下跌之 后,价格有所企稳,棉花库存偏低对于价格仍有支撑,但下游订单偏弱,仍然拖累价格。7月份棉花库寿消化力度尚可,截至7 月底，商业库存为218.98万吨，环比减少64万吨，同比减少58.8万吨。其中新疆疆内棉 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, with unclear implications from the given star description [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend due to positive market sentiment and strong furnace material prices, despite weak domestic demand [2] - The iron ore market is likely to oscillate at a high level as its fundamental contradictions are limited, with improved market sentiment and short - term reduced uncertainty [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have their prices affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility and relatively limited downward space [4][6] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets' prices are influenced by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: Surface demand and production increased, inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil: Surface demand significantly declined, production decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate. Iron water production declined moderately but remained high. Market negative feedback pressure is low. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively high. Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments decreased slightly month - on - month but were stronger year - on - year. Domestic arrivals decreased month - on - month, and port inventories stabilized and increased. Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and blast furnace iron water decreased slightly. Steel mills have high profit ratios and limited motivation to cut production. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - Due to approaching major events, there are expectations of production restrictions in East China coking plants. The sixth round of price increases is proposed. Profits improved, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is good. Prices are affected by policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility [4] Coking Coal - The market has high expectations for coal over - production inspections. Mine production decreased, and the spot auction market improved. Total inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. Prices are affected by policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility [6] Silicon Manganese - Iron water production remained high. Weekly production increased, but the rate was lower than expected. Manganese ore prices increased slightly. The market is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. Prices are affected by policy expectations [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was about 30,000 tons. Supply increased significantly, and inventory increased slightly. Prices follow the silicon manganese trend and are affected by policy expectations [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals declined, and the international gold price still showed strong resistance above $3400 per ounce. Trump clarified the gold tariff rumor, relieving concerns about supply - chain disruptions. The China - US joint statement announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs again today. This week, focus on the US - Russia leaders' meeting and the release of US CPI data tonight. Market sentiment may fluctuate. Be cautious when participating in precious metals at high levels and patiently wait for pull - back opportunities in the volatile trend [1] 3) Summary by Related Content - **Tariff Suspension**: The US will continue to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macao SARs) stipulated in Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended again for 90 days, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff. China will continue to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on US goods stipulated in Tariff Commission Announcement No. 4, 2025. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended again for 90 days, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff. China will also take or maintain necessary measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US according to the Geneva Joint Statement [2] - **Fed Chair Candidates**: The Trump team has included Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan in the list of candidates for the Fed chair, and the chairperson may be announced this autumn [2] - **Trump's Statements**: Trump said the meeting with Putin was a tentative one. The next meeting will be with Zelensky or with both Putin and Zelensky, and there will be changes in the Russia - Ukraine territory [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a partial bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ななな - Alumina: なな女 - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ Core Views - The market is affected by factors such as Sino - US tariff policies, US inflation indicators, and Fed interest - rate expectations. Different metals show various price trends and investment opportunities due to their unique supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiments [2][3][4] - Each metal has its own price characteristics, resistance levels, and trading strategies, which are determined by factors like inventory, production capacity, and downstream demand [3][7][8] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed positive. Spot copper was reported at 79,150 yuan, and the premium of Shanghai flat - water copper widened to 170 yuan. Hold previous high - level short positions [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The spot discount in East China narrowed by 20 yuan to 30 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 23,000 tons compared to Thursday. Consumption remained weak. The peak of aluminum ingot social inventory may occur in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [3] - Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price remained unchanged at 19,800 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor, showing some resilience relative to aluminum prices [3] - The operating capacity of alumina was at a historical high, the total industry inventory increased, and the market was in an oversupply state. Spot transaction prices showed signs of loosening, and spot indices in many places were slightly adjusted downward [3] Zinc - Sino - US tariff extension led to a warm macro - sentiment, and short - sellers reduced their positions, weakening the resistance to the rebound of Shanghai zinc. Downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient, and some traders lowered premiums to sell. There is a phased rebound space for Shanghai zinc, and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded with active market trading. As the domestic anti - involution theme ended, nickel with a relatively poor fundamental situation will return to its fundamentals. Enter short positions actively as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated during the session and closed down at the end, with increased positions in the market. Spot tin was reported at 270,600 yuan, with a real - time premium of 700 yuan to the delivery - month contract. Wait and see or choose to go short - term long at low prices [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened high and went low with active market trading. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons. Pay attention to risk management due to abnormal price fluctuations [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon increased positions and closed down at 8,890 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate with support at the previous low of 8,300 yuan/ton. Pay attention to whether large factories in Xinjiang will resume production on a large scale [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon fluctuated and slightly closed up. The production schedule in August was significantly increased, and inventory would still restrict the increase of its spot price. It is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and do not chase high at the upper limit [11]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年08月12日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价收涨,布伦特10合约涨0.59%。油价经历了上周的连续下跌后,重新等待美俄会谈带 来新的方向指引。三季度以来全球石油累库1.1%，与一季度、二季度的累库速度基本一致,而平衡 表显示四季度供需盈余幅度较前三季度基本翻倍，旺季过后石油市场的累库压力始终存在。本周重 点关注周五美俄领导人会谈,其双向结果均将引发原油较大波动,建议逢低布局SC2510虚值期权的 双买策略。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属回落。特朗普发帖澄清黄金关税传闻，供应链抗动担忧解除。本周美俄领导会谈以及中 美关税政策节点，市场避险情绪可能摇摆，贵金属高位谨慎参与,震荡趋势中耐心等待回调布局机 会。今晚关注美国CPI数据发布。 (铜) 隔夜铜价收阴,智利停工地下铜矿部分复工。中美继续将极高关税搁置90天，市场等待美国通胀指 标。昨日国内现铜报79150元，关注现铜跟调强弱。前期高位空单持有。 隔夜沪铝小幅回调。周初铝锭社库较周四增加2.3万吨，铝棒增加0.4万吨，消费维持淡季表现,不 过铝棒减量趋势缓和，铝锭社库峰值可能在8月出现。沪铝短期震 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is waiting for new direction from the US - Russia talks, and there is inventory accumulation pressure after the peak season. It is recommended to buy SC2510 out - of - the - money options on dips [2]. - For precious metals, due to the clarification of gold tariff rumors and potential market sentiment swings, it is advisable to wait patiently for pull - back opportunities [3]. - In the base metals market, prices show different trends. For example, copper prices are affected by mine resumptions and inflation indicators; aluminum prices are in short - term oscillations; zinc prices are expected to face resistance on rebounds [4][5][8]. - In the energy and chemical market, fuels face inventory and demand issues, while asphalt has limited supply pressure and potential price support [22][23]. - In the agricultural products market, the soybean and bean - related products are affected by weather, trade policies, and inventory conditions, with no clear trend yet [36]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to maintain a risk - preference - positive trend, and the bond market is under pressure but may show signs of stabilization [48][49]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose. After continuous declines last week, the market awaits US - Russia talks. There is inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter. A double - buy strategy for SC2510 out - of - the - money options on dips is recommended [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals and weak demand. Singapore's inventory is high, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to shrink [22]. - **Asphalt**: August production is down. Supply pressure is limited, demand is weak but has repair expectations, and low inventory supports prices. The BU crack spread is expected to be strong [23]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. After Trump clarified gold tariff rumors, market sentiment may swing due to upcoming events. It is recommended to wait for pull - back opportunities [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices closed lower. Some Chilean mines resumed work. The high - tariff issue between China and the US is on hold. It is advisable to hold previous short positions [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum slightly corrected. Inventory increased at the beginning of the week, and consumption is in the off - season. Short - term oscillations are expected, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory is decreasing, and the Fed's September rate - cut expectation is rising. The zinc market is expected to face resistance on rebounds, and short positions are recommended above 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The fundamentals of Shanghai lead lack contradictions. Supply and demand are in a state of offsetting each other. It is advisable to hold long positions around 16,600 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in the mid - to - late stage of a rebound. It is recommended to enter short positions actively as the market returns to fundamentals [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices rose briefly. Low inventory provides support. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions at low prices [11]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea market is in the agricultural off - season. Supply is relatively abundant, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly without new positive factors [24]. - **Methanol**: Coal price increases have compressed the profit of coal - to - methanol in the northwest. Inland inventory is low and decreasing, while coastal inventory is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream restocking [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Oil prices stopped falling, and pure benzene prices oscillated. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in the mid - to - late third quarter, and it is recommended to trade the monthly spread [26]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost support is weak. Although supply decreased and demand increased slightly, the upward price drive is insufficient [27]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is supported, while the supply of polyethylene and polypropylene has limited changes. Overall, the upward price drive is insufficient [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production and weak demand. Caustic soda shows a strong performance in the short term, but there is supply pressure in the long term [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: Affected by Trump's remarks and weather, the market is in low - level oscillations. The US soybean is in good condition, and the soybean meal market is expected to oscillate without a clear trend before the tariff issue is resolved [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is optimistic in the short term, driving the soybean oil market. It is recommended to buy on dips, considering the long - term development of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the US Department of Agriculture's report and China - Canada relations. There may be an opportunity for the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal to widen [38]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures are in low - level oscillations. The market atmosphere is weak, and it may continue to be weak without policy guidance [40]. - **Pig**: The spot price of pigs is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended for industries to hedge on price rebounds [41]. - **Egg**: The egg futures market follows the logic of de - capacity through price decline. Attention should be paid to spot prices, demand in the peak season, and cold - storage egg release [42]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton production is expected to be stable. The domestic cotton inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar market is expected to oscillate due to limited positive factors [44]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price is rising. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Wood**: The wood market's supply - demand situation is improving, and it is recommended to take a long - position approach [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp price is rising. The inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to wait and see or take light long positions on dips [47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares are at a high level with incremental trading. The risk - preference is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure but may stabilize. The yield curve is expected to steepen, and it is recommended to be cautious in taking long positions [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Palm oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Corn: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Live pigs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, policies, trade relations, and supply - demand. Different products have different market trends and investment suggestions [2][4][5][6][7] - For soybeans, pay attention to weather and policy impacts; for bean粕, treat the market as volatile before the tariff issue is resolved; for palm oil and soybean oil, maintain the idea of buying on dips; for rapeseed products, take a neutral strategy in the short term; for corn, it may continue to be weak at the bottom; for live pigs, suggest industry hedging on rallies; for eggs, focus on spot price performance and industry capacity reduction [2][4][5][6][7] Summary by Product Soybeans and Bean粕 - Douyi prices are oscillating weakly. Northeast production areas have favorable water - heat conditions, and policy - end auctions continue. The spread between Douyi and Douer is weak, and negative factors are mostly released. For imported soybeans, pay attention to weather risks in the US [2] - The Dalian bean粕 futures fell about 2% intraday due to Trump's remarks and rebounded at the end. Brazilian bean premiums are rising, domestic fourth - quarter procurement is slow, oil mill crushing rates are stable, and bean粕 inventories are at a high level. Before the tariff issue is resolved, treat the bean粕 market as volatile [2] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Indonesia has set a B50 biodiesel development target for 2026. The MP0B report is more bullish than expected, but the absolute inventory is still large. Palm oil prices have broken through the shock range. Maintain the idea of buying on dips for soybean oil and palm oil, but be cautious about mid - term market sentiment fermentation [2] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The weather window for Canadian rapeseed is narrowing, and the change in production is small. The net long position of funds has declined again. The domestic rapeseed market shows a risk - avoiding attitude. Suggest a neutral short - term strategy for rapeseed products and pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal [4] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to oscillate at a low level. Cofco will conduct another imported corn auction. Without policy guidance, domestic corn may continue to be weak at the bottom under the background of falling US corn prices [5] Live Pigs - The spot and futures markets of live pigs deviated last week. Spot prices continued to fall to a new low this year. From a fundamental perspective, the supply of live pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies [6] Eggs - Last week, egg spot prices continued to decline and then stopped falling. The futures market is still trading based on the logic of high - capacity pressure. Focus on spot price performance, peak - season demand, and cold - storage egg出库, as well as industry capacity reduction [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Olefins - Polyolefins: The futures of olefins rose slightly, with some PDH plants restarting and a major Shandong plant planning maintenance, supporting supply. Propylene producers were eager to raise prices. Polyolefins futures remained in a low - level range. PE had limited supply changes and moderate demand growth, with limited upward momentum. PP supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Oil prices weakened, and pure benzene futures fluctuated. The spot price in East China rose slightly, and the far - month price was weak. Downstream备货 willingness improved, and port inventory decreased slightly. Styrene futures were weak, with weak cost support and ongoing supply - demand contradictions [3]. - Polyester: Affected by the weekend's strong filament sales, PX and PTA prices rebounded. PTA supply was still weak, and PX was expected to improve in the third quarter. Ethylene glycol prices rebounded, with increasing production but also expectations of reduced imports and rising demand. Short fiber had stable supply - demand, and bottle chip had low processing margins and long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. - Coal Chemicals: Methanol prices fluctuated narrowly, with expected increases in imports and different inventory trends in coastal and inland areas. Urea prices followed the market sentiment down, with weak agricultural demand and limited improvement from compound fertilizers. PVC was expected to be weak due to high production and low demand. Caustic soda was strong in the short - term but faced long - term supply pressure [6]. - Soda Ash - Glass: Soda ash prices were under pressure, with continued inventory accumulation and high supply. Glass prices were expected to be supported by cost, with improved processing orders but still weak compared to the same period last year [7]. Summary by Sections Olefins - Polyolefins - Futures of olefins rose slightly, with some PDH plants restarting and a major Shandong plant planning maintenance, supporting supply. Propylene producers were eager to raise prices [2]. - Polyolefins futures remained in a low - level range. PE had limited supply changes and moderate demand growth, with limited upward momentum. PP supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Oil prices weakened, and pure benzene futures fluctuated. The spot price in East China rose slightly, and the far - month price was weak. Downstream备货 willingness improved, and port inventory decreased slightly [3] - Styrene futures were weak, with weak cost support and ongoing supply - demand contradictions [3] Polyester - Affected by the weekend's strong filament sales, PX and PTA prices rebounded. PTA supply was still weak, and PX was expected to improve in the third quarter [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded, with increasing production but also expectations of reduced imports and rising demand. Short fiber had stable supply - demand, and bottle chip had low processing margins and long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices fluctuated narrowly, with expected increases in imports and different inventory trends in coastal and inland areas [6] - Urea prices followed the market sentiment down, with weak agricultural demand and limited improvement from compound fertilizers [6] - PVC was expected to be weak due to high production and low demand. Caustic soda was strong in the short - term but faced long - term supply pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were under pressure, with continued inventory accumulation and high supply [7] - Glass prices were expected to be supported by cost, with improved processing orders but still weak compared to the same period last year [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows mixed trends with rising thread demand and production but falling hot-rolled coil demand and production, while inventory accumulates in both. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by "anti-involution" policies with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets also follow the "anti-involution" policy expectations and face pressure near previous highs [2][3][4] By Commodity Type Steel - Thread's apparent demand and production increased, inventory continued to accumulate; hot-rolled coil's apparent demand dropped significantly, production declined, and inventory also continued to accumulate. Iron water production declined slightly but remained high. Downstream industries showed weak domestic demand, while steel exports remained relatively high. Market sentiment was supported by factors such as narrowed PPI decline and marginal relaxation of the Beijing property market [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price rose slightly, and the basis fluctuated recently. Global shipments decreased slightly this period, with a large drop in Australian shipments and increases in Brazilian and non-mainstream country shipments. Domestic arrivals decreased this period but were slightly higher than last year. Terminal demand was weak, and blast furnace iron water decreased slightly. Steel mills had high profit ratios and limited motivation for active production cuts. The market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated upward. The sixth round of price increases improved profits, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory continued to decline, and traders had good purchasing intentions. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream iron water remained at a high level during the off-season. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated upward. Market sentiment was high regarding coal overproduction inspections. Mine production decreased, the spot auction market improved, and terminal inventory remained flat. Total inventory decreased, and production-side inventory continued to decline significantly. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose slightly. Iron water production remained above 240. Weekly production continued to increase but at a slower rate than expected, providing some support to the price. Manganese ore prices rose slightly this week, and it was expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, supply exceeded demand, and on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, and pressure near previous highs should be noted [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. Iron water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly, and secondary demand declined marginally. Supply increased significantly, market trading was average, and on-balance-sheet inventory increased slightly. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, and pressure near previous highs should be noted [8]