Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The oil market may shift to a weaker market dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals due to the weakening geopolitical risk premium and the expected loose supply - demand outlook after the peak season. The fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG markets are all affected by the weakening of the oil market, with different market characteristics and trends [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC09 contract dropping 2.24% during the day. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil, to be implemented in 21 days. But the risk of Russian oil supply has weakened, and the geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased. The supply - demand outlook for crude oil after the peak season remains loose, and the oil market may turn to a weaker trend [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - SC led the decline in the oil product market, and the weakness of fuel - related futures continued. The arrival of fuel oil in the Asian market in August was abundant, and the ship - bunkering demand lacked support. The Singapore inventory remained high, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore continued to decline. The low - sulfur fuel oil market was weak, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price difference continued to shrink [2]. Asphalt - SC led the decline in the oil product market. The asphalt supply - side increase space is currently considered neutral, and the demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation. The asphalt's unilateral trend follows crude oil, and the BU crack spread has rebounded significantly recently [3]. LPG - After the CP was lowered, the spot market was weak. The North American market was under pressure, and the import cost continued to put pressure on the domestic market. The domestic demand has bottom - support, and the LPG futures are running at a low level with the fundamental negatives having landed [4].

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| Millio | > 國投期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月08日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡偏强。美国对等关税正式生效且有所加码、美国经济前景担忧以及降息预期升温推动国际金 价测试近三个月以来运行区间高位重要阻力。有媒体报道一份针对瑞士精炼厂澄清请求的裁定函明确指出, 1公斤和100盎司金条应归入税号710813，而不属于唯一免税的710812税号，部分进口黄金加征关税令伦敦与 纽约金价价差扩大。俄罗斯总统普京和美国总统特朗普将在未来几天内举行会谈将成为影响走势的潜在因 素。贵金属震荡趋势中维持回调买入思路,高位谨慎参与。 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 白星代表短期多/空趋势处在一种相对均衡状态中,且当前 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market may shift to a weaker trend dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals, with geopolitical risk premiums significantly reduced [2]. - For precious metals, maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy during the oscillation period and be cautious when prices are high [3]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and policy impacts, such as holding previous short positions for copper, waiting for short - selling opportunities for zinc, etc. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. After the US announced a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil (to be implemented in 21 days), the supply risk of Russian oil weakened due to positive signals from US - Russia talks. The post - peak - season supply - demand outlook is loose, and the market may turn pessimistic [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: SC continued to fall, and fuel - related futures followed the downward trend. The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals in August, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, while high - sulfur resources are relatively supported [22]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: For coke and coking coal, the prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with high volatility in the short term. Coke is bullish in the short term, while coking coal should be cautiously chased up [17][18]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices dropped, and the market mainly tracks macro - economic indicators. Hold previous short positions [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum slightly declined overnight. The apparent consumption is in the off - season, but the aluminum rod production has rebounded. It will oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The expiration of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The fundamentals are strong overseas and weak domestically. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound. Actively enter short positions [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices oscillated and closed higher. It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [11]. - **Lead**: The supply of refined lead has regional differences. It is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to go long on dips [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Overnight precious metals oscillated strongly. Factors such as the US tariff, economic outlook concerns, and interest - rate cut expectations pushed up the gold price. Maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy [3]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price of carbonate lithium rebounded with increased volume. After the price rebound, look for high - level short - selling positions [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures slightly rose. The supply pressure remains, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures slightly declined. It is expected to oscillate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Urea**: After the policy became clear, the urea market declined. The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [24]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, the methanol market is weak, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory. In the long term, pay attention to the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene futures price is weak. There is an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, and it is advisable to conduct monthly - spread trading [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, while caustic soda is under pressure in the long term [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by weak oil prices, PX and PTA prices declined. Pay attention to the possible valuation repair of PTA [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price oscillated and declined due to port inventory pressure [29]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Consider a long - position strategy for short - fiber in the medium term, while the long - term over - capacity of bottle - grade chips restricts the repair of processing margins [30]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices declined. Pay attention to the subsequent production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places, and the overall market sentiment is cautious [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with attention to policy - driven production - restriction progress [16]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean may have an early - harvest expectation. Before the tariff issue is clear, the soybean meal market will oscillate [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of soybean oil and palm oil is expected to oscillate. Maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil maintains a neutral view, while rapeseed meal futures may oscillate weakly [36]. - **Soybean No.1**: The soybean No.1 price rebounded from a low level. Pay attention to the weather in domestic production areas and policy guidance [37]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom. Pay attention to the supply in the circulation stage [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The live - pig futures price in the near - term is not optimistic, and pay attention to the capacity - reduction logic in the far - term [39]. - **Eggs**: Adopt a reverse - spread strategy on the futures market. The price in the first half of next year is more supported [40]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton has stabilized. Temporarily wait and see or conduct intraday trading [41]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures slightly rose. Temporarily wait and see [42]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Shipping companies are accelerating price cuts. The freight rate is expected to decline rapidly, and maintain a bearish view [21]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures closed down. Maintain an increased allocation to technology - growth and low - level consumer sectors [43]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures oscillated. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [44].

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 10 - contract down 0.82%. The geopolitical risk premium has significantly diminished, and the post - peak season outlook for crude oil supply and demand remains relatively loose. The oil market may shift to a weaker trend dominated by a pessimistic supply - demand situation [2] Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with a slight upward bias. The official implementation and intensification of US reciprocal tariffs, concerns about the US economic outlook, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed international gold prices to test the important resistance at the upper end of the three - month trading range. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips and be cautious at high levels [3] Copper - Overnight, copper prices declined. The market's reaction to the new round of US tariffs was "mild", and it is mainly tracking macro - economic indicators. Hold previous short positions [4] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. The apparent consumption has fallen during the off - season, but the production of aluminum rods has increased month - on - month. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the industry's profit is poor. In the medium term, it has certain resilience relative to aluminum prices. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities with AL [6] Alumina - Recently, the operating capacity of alumina has reached a historical high, and the industry's total inventory has increased. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downside space is also relatively limited [7] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The fundamentals are strong overseas and weak domestically. The zinc spot import loss has widened. The Shanghai zinc market has rebounded, and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [8] Lead - The supply of lead ingots has significant regional differences. The inventory of lead has decreased slightly. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton in the short term. Consider short - term long positions on dips [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded. The upstream price support has significantly weakened. The overall inventory level is still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound. Actively enter short positions [10] Tin - Overnight, tin prices fluctuated and closed higher. It is expected to be in a volatile market. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate has rebounded with heavy trading volume. The total market inventory has slightly declined. After the rebound, the trading value has decreased. Look for high - level short - selling positions [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher. The supply pressure remains, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 8,500 yuan/ton [13] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures closed slightly lower. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton for the PS2511 contract [14] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The supply is expected to increase seasonally in August, and the demand is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of policy - based production restrictions [16] Coke - The coking industry's profit has improved, and the inventory has continued to decline slightly. The coke price is expected to rise in the short term, but the volatility remains high [17] Coking Coal - The total inventory of coking coal has decreased month - on - month. The coking coal price is significantly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The downside space is relatively small, and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [18] Manganese Silicon - The demand for manganese silicon remains at a high level, and the production rate increase is lower than expected. The price is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [19] Silicon Iron - The overall demand for silicon iron is acceptable, and the inventory has slightly increased. It follows the trend of manganese silicon, and pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [20] Group 2: Building Materials and Chemicals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices declined. The supply - demand contradiction in the spot market is not significant, and the "anti - involution" theme dominates the market trend. Pay attention to the overall trend of the commodity market [15] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil futures are following the downward trend of SC. The low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure in the short term, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price spread continues to narrow [22] Asphalt - The August production plan has decreased compared to July. The asphalt market is under pressure, and the supply increase space is currently neutral. Pay attention to the actual production release of major refineries [23] Urea - The urea market has declined after the policy became clear. The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market focus is on changes in export policies [24] Methanol - The coastal olefin plants' overall operating rate is not high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [25] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene futures price is weak. The market pressure is expected to ease, and there is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter. Consider month - spread band trading [26] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to increased supply and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to face high - level pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and strong supply [27] PX and PTA - Affected by the weak oil price, PX and PTA prices have declined. The PTA industry's operating rate is expected to decrease, and pay attention to the possibility of PTA valuation repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has declined due to port inventory pressure. The supply - demand situation has real - world pressure, and overseas plant disruptions have weakened [29] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin - The short - fiber price has followed the raw material price decline. Consider long positions in the medium term. The bottle - grade resin has low processing margins, and capacity over - supply is a long - term pressure [30] Glass - The glass industry's inventory has increased, and the futures price is weak. The market has returned to real - world trading. Pay attention to the market sentiment and processing orders [31] Natural Rubber and Related Products - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is slowly weakening. The inventory has declined. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [32] Soda Ash - Soda ash is in a weak position. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand from the photovoltaic industry is weak. The futures price is under high - level pressure but is not expected to break the previous low [33] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade tariffs, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has increased. The soybean meal inventory has reached a record high this year. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the soybean meal market is expected to be volatile before the tariff issue is clarified [34] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price of domestic soybean oil has fluctuated significantly. The market is waiting for the guidance of the US biomass diesel policy. Maintain a strategy of long - position allocation on dips for soybean oil and palm oil, and pay attention to market sentiment fluctuations in the medium term [35] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The weather risk for Canadian rapeseed is decreasing, and the domestic rapeseed price is expected to be slightly stronger than the international market. Rapeseed meal may fluctuate weakly, and pay attention to the import prospects of rapeseed [36] Soybean No. 1 - The price of Soybean No. 1 has rebounded from a low level. Pay attention to the weather in domestic soybean - producing areas and policy guidance [37] Corn - The corn futures in Dalian are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom. The new - season corn has a high probability of a bumper harvest, and pay attention to the phased supply in the circulation link [38] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has continued to decline, hitting a new low this year. The futures price of live pigs in the near - term is not optimistic, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity reduction in the long - term [39] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable with a weak trend. The futures market suggests a reverse - spread strategy. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, while the off - season contracts in the second half of this year will be relatively weak [40] Cotton - The US cotton has declined, and the Brazilian cotton export has decreased. The Zhengzhou cotton has stabilized. The new - season Xinjiang cotton has a strong expectation of increased production. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [41] Pulp - The pulp futures have risen slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is still weak. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42] Group 4: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market index futures closed down. The domestic equity market's capital sentiment is generally positive in the medium term. Maintain an increased allocation of technology - growth and low - level consumer sectors [43] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures are oscillating. Short - term multi - variety hedging should focus on the entry timing of curve steepening [44]

| Mille | > 國授期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月07日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡。美联储独立性问题、美国经济前景担忧以及降息预期升温令美元维持偏弱趋势,国际金价 再度测试近三个月以来运行区间高位阻力。美国经济的不断验证可能令市场情绪存在反复,贵金属震荡趋势 中维持回调买入思路,高位区域谨慎追涨。 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 白星代表短期多/空趋势处在一种相对均衡状态中,且当前盘面可操作性较差,以观望为主 免责声明 ★美联储卡什卡利:短期内可能适合降息,今年两次降息是合理的。特朗普:新任美联储理事可能是临时 的,将在2-3天内公布任命。美联储戴利:劳动力市场正在放缓、关税仅造成短 ...

| | | | 11/11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURE | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月07日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。本周螺纹表需、产量均有所上升，库存继续累积。热卷需求大幅回落，产量也有所下滑，库存继续累积。 铁水产量回落，整体维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，关注后期唐山等地限产力度。从下游行业看，地产投资 继续大幅下滑，基建增速放缓，制造业景气程度放缓 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silver investment rating: ☆☆☆ [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. Concerns about the Fed's independence, the US economic outlook, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts have kept the US dollar in a weak trend. International gold prices have tested the resistance at the upper end of the trading range in the past three months again. The continuous verification of the US economy may cause market sentiment to fluctuate. In the fluctuating trend of precious metals, maintain the idea of buying on dips and be cautious about chasing high in the high - level area [1] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Information Fed Statements - Kashkari believes that a short - term interest rate cut may be appropriate, and two interest rate cuts this year are reasonable. Trump says the new Fed governor may be temporary and will announce the appointment in 2 - 3 days. Daly says the labor market is slowing, tariffs have only a short - term impact, and the Fed will cut interest rates soon. Cook warns to be cautious when looking at data, the July employment data is worrying, and significant data revisions may occur when the economy is at a turning point. Hassett says the Fed Council's voting seems to be partisan [2] Tariff News - The Swiss Federal President left the US without progress on a trade agreement. Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, with exemptions for factories built in the US. He also announced a 25% tariff increase on Indian goods, raising the total tax rate to 50%. He threatens to impose 25% tariffs on countries importing Russian crude oil. Apple is said to be largely unaffected by US tariffs on India and has increased its US investment commitment by $10 billion. Japan questions the consistency between the US tariff announcement and the agreement [2] US - Russia Talks - Trump says the US - Russia talks are fruitful, and there is a high possibility of a summit between Zelensky, Putin, and himself. The three leaders may meet face - to - face as early as next week. Rubio says a decision on secondary sanctions against Russia will be made within 24 - 36 hours, and the US and Russian leaders may talk in a few days [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Zinc: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content Core Views - The copper market lacks a clear main line, and it has to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. - The short - term trend of aluminum is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and there is a certain toughness relative to the aluminum price in the medium - term. Alumina is under pressure to oscillate but has limited downside space [2]. - The zinc market has an external - strong and internal - weak fundamental situation. Wait for the opportunity to short above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The downside space of lead is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [6]. - Tin is expected to be in an oscillatory market. Close high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. - After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the value of the game decreases. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and pay attention to the support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon PS2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper oscillated and closed up at the MA60 moving - average line. The copper market lacks a clear main line, and it has to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate strongly. The spot discount in East China widened by 10 yuan to 50 yuan. The inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat compared to Monday, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of Baotai increased by 100 yuan to 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. In the medium - term, it has a certain toughness relative to the aluminum price [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. It is under pressure to oscillate but has limited downside space [2] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The LME zinc inventory continues to decline to 89,000 tons, and the SMM zinc social inventory has risen to 113,200 tons. The fundamental situation is external - strong and internal - weak. Wait for the opportunity to short above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Environmental inspections have affected the production of recycled lead in Anhui. The supply of lead ingots has large regional differences. The social inventory of lead has decreased by 180 tons to 71,100 tons. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [5] Nickel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and the market trading is active. The upstream price support has significantly weakened. The inventory of nickel iron is basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons. It is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated with a decrease in positions during the session. It is expected to be in an oscillatory market. Pay attention to the change of high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plan of large factories and the off - season consumption. Close high - level short positions and wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with increased volume, and the market trading contracted. The total market inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. After the rebound, the value of the game decreases. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, and the spot manufacturers' quotes remained stable. The expected output in August will increase by about 21,700 - 31,700 tons. The downstream demand for polysilicon is expected to increase by about 11,800 - 12,100 tons, while the demand for silicone is expected to increase slightly. The supply pressure still exists. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, and pay attention to the support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly lower, and the trading sentiment declined marginally. The average price of SMM re - feed materials remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability, with a recommendation to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆★, implying a certain bullish trend [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, suggesting a certain bullish trend [1] Core Views - The overall steel market has complex supply - demand relationships. With the "anti - involution" influencing the trading floor, the market sentiment is cautious after sharp fluctuations [2] - Iron ore is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term due to factors such as supply recovery, stable demand, and macro uncertainties [2] - Coke is expected to rise in the short term, with its price being significantly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [3] - Coking coal is likely to see continued destocking in the short term, with high volatility and limited downside space, and caution is advised when chasing up [5] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: This week, apparent demand and production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The overall market sentiment is cautious after sharp fluctuations, and the trading floor is mainly influenced by the "anti - involution" [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Demand dropped significantly, production declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. The overall demand in the downstream industries is weak, and the trading floor is affected by the overall commodity market trend [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are expected to increase seasonally in August, domestic arrivals have increased month - on - month, and port inventories have stabilized with no obvious pressure to accumulate in the short term [2] - Demand: Terminal demand is weak due to weather, but steel mills have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the demand for iron ore replenishment still exists. Future policy - driven production cuts need to be monitored [2] - Macro: There are still uncertainties in overseas trade, and the bullish sentiment from domestic "anti - involution" has cooled down. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level consolidation [2] Coke - Supply: The sixth round of price increase is pending, production has slightly decreased, and overall inventory has continued to decline slightly [3] - Demand: Downstream molten iron production remains high during the off - season, and traders have good purchasing intentions [3] - Market: The price is significantly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and it is expected to rise in the short term with high volatility [3] Coking Coal - Supply: Production has slightly increased, the spot auction market has improved, and overall inventory has decreased month - on - month, with production - end inventory dropping significantly [5] - Demand: Downstream molten iron production remains high during the off - season [5] - Market: The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with high volatility and limited downside space in the short term. Caution is needed when chasing up [5] Silicon Manganese - Supply: Weekly production has been increasing, but the rate is lower than expected. Manganese ore prices have slightly increased this week, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [6] - Demand: Molten iron production remains above 240, and the demand is relatively high. In July, supply exceeded demand, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline [6] - Market: The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [6] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply has slightly increased, and the market trading volume is average, with on - balance - sheet inventory slightly increasing [7] - Demand: Molten iron production has slightly decreased but remains above 240. Export demand is around 30,000 tons, and the secondary demand has slightly declined. Overall demand is acceptable [7] - Market: The price follows the trend of silicon manganese and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [7]