1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ (Indicates a bias towards a long position, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor) [5] - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Indicates a clearer long - position trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [5] - LPG: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations. Different energy products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude oil - Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. Brent 10 contract still closed up 2.84%, and SC09 contract rose 2.92%. US July non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and data for May and June were significantly revised down. OPEC + 8 voluntary production - cut countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This week, after the oil price correction, it is temporarily regarded as oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before the August 12 deadline [2] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures. The fuel oil series trended lower, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread continued to decline. The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the bunker fuel demand in Fujeirah has been weakening month - on - month since June. The crack spreads of FU and LU are expected to continue the weak trend [2] Asphalt - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared with July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months. Demand recovery in South China was delayed, and northern demand was also weak. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The BU trend mainly follows the direction of crude oil, but the fluctuation range is limited [3] LPG - The Middle East CP was significantly lowered, but the spot discount shrank. The chemical profit margin stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end. The PDH operating rate is still rising, and domestic demand has bottom - level support. The supply side is relatively loose, and refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The downside space of the spot is relatively limited after the rapid decline [4]

| | | | VA SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年08月04日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 锰硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面下探回升。淡季建材需求疲弱，螺纹表需环比下滑，产量稍有回落，库存低位有所累积。热卷需求、产量均有所回 升，库存继续小幅累积。铁水产量回落，整体维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大。从下游行业看，地产投资继续 大幅下滑，基建增速放缓，制造业景气程度放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，出口维持相对高位 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a detailed interpretation of the draft contracts for platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX), covering contract specifications, trading rules, margin systems, position limits, delivery methods, and quality standards. It highlights the innovative features of the GFEX's contract design, such as the inclusion of sponge and powder forms in delivery and the introduction of the factory warehouse system, which aim to better serve industrial enterprises and enhance the function of futures in serving the real economy [3][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Contract Specifications - **Trading Variety**: Platinum and palladium [3] - **Trading Unit**: 1,000 grams per lot [3] - **Delivery Unit**: 1,000 grams [3] - **Quotation Unit**: Yuan (Renminbi) per gram [3] - **Minimum Price Fluctuation**: 0.05 yuan per gram [3] - **Daily Price Limit**: 4% for general months and 6% for delivery months (subject to exchange announcements) [3][4][5] - **Contract Delivery Months**: February, April, June, August, October, and December [3] - **Trading Hours**: Monday to Friday, 9:00 - 11:30 AM and 13:30 - 15:00 PM, plus other trading hours specified by the exchange [3] - **Last Trading Day**: The 10th trading day of the contract month [3] - **Last Delivery Day**: The third trading day after the last trading day [3] - **Delivery Grade**: As specified in the "Detailed Rules for Platinum and Palladium Futures and Options Business of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange" [3] - **Delivery Location**: Designated delivery warehouses by the exchange [3] - **Minimum Trading Margin**: 5% of the contract value [3] - **Delivery Method**: Physical delivery [3] - **Trading Codes**: Platinum - PT; Palladium - PD [3] - **Listing Exchange**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange [3] Margin System - **Three - stage Gradient Margin**: 5% from contract listing to the 10th trading day before the month preceding the delivery month, 10% from the 10th trading day to the last trading day of the month preceding the delivery month, and 20% in the delivery month [6][7] Position Limits - **Three - stage Position Limits**: Different limits are set for general months, the period starting from the 15th trading day of the month preceding the delivery month, and the delivery month. For example, for non - futures company members, etc., in general months, if N > 6000 lots, it's 10%×N lots; if N ≤ 6000 lots, it's 600 lots [8][9][10] Delivery - **Delivery Forms**: In addition to ingots, sponge and powder forms of platinum and palladium are included in delivery. Sponge can be delivered through the factory warehouse system [11] - **Delivery Quality Standards**: The purity of platinum and palladium delivery items should be no less than 99.95%. Different impurity element requirements are set for domestic and imported products, as well as for different forms [16][17][18] - **Delivery Methods**: Rolling delivery and one - time delivery are available [21] Options - **Contract Specifications**: Similar to futures contracts in terms of trading unit, quotation unit, etc. The last trading day is the 5th trading day of the month preceding the delivery month of the underlying futures contract [25] - **Strike Price**: Covers a range of 1.5 times the daily price limit of the previous trading day's settlement price of the underlying futures contract, with different strike price intervals for different price ranges [27] - **Exercise Style**: American style [27] - **Position Limits**: Non - futures company members, etc., have a limit of 600 lots for the sum of long call and short put positions, and long put and short call positions in a certain month's option contracts [29]

Group 1: Metals Price and Premium Information - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 78,420 with a daily increase of 90, and the SMM flat - copper premium is 155 with an increase of 5 [1] - The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,480 with a daily decrease of 40, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 30 with a decrease of 10 [1] - The average price of alumina (Shanxi) is 3240 with no change, and the average FOB price of Australian alumina is 377 dollars with no change [1] - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,700 with an increase of 150, and the premium of SMM 1 lead ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 50 with no change [1] - The average price of recycled refined lead is 16,725 with an increase of 125, and the refined - scrap price difference is - 25 with an increase of 25 [1] - The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,170 with a decrease of 130, and the premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 15 with an increase of 15 [1] - The average price of SMM 1 tin is 265,800 with an increase of 1200, and the premium of SMM 1 tin to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 630 with a decrease of 80 [1] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) is 253,800 with an increase of 1200, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.49% [1] - The average price of 1 imported nickel is 120,500 with an increase of 550, and the average premium of 1 imported nickel to the SHFE nickel contract is 350 with no change [1] - The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 122,500, and the average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the SHFE nickel contract is 2350 with an increase of 100 [1] - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon (Xinjiang) plus 800 (considering regional and quality factors) is 9800 with a decrease of 250, and the premium of 553 silicon spot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1385 with an increase of 40 [1] - The average price of 421 silicon (Kunming) is 10,200, the average price of polycrystalline silicon dense material is 0, the average price of granular silicon is 0, and the average price of N - type polycrystalline silicon material is 47 [1] - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,350 with no change, and the premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1910 with a decrease of 740 [1] - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,250, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2100 with no change [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Xiao Jing is the chief analyst focusing on copper and tin, with a qualification number of F3047773 and an investment consulting number of Z0014087 [1] - Liu Dongxia is a senior analyst focusing on aluminum, alumina, and gold, with a qualification number of F3062795 and an investment consulting number of Z0015311 [1] - Wu Jiang is a senior analyst focusing on nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with a qualification number of F3085524 and an investment consulting number of Z0016394 [1] - Sun Fangfang is a middle - level analyst focusing on lead and zinc, with a qualification number of F03111330 and an investment consulting number of Z0018905 [1] - Zhang Xiurui is a middle - level analyst focusing on industrial silicon, with a qualification number of F03099436 and an investment consulting number of Z0021022 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil price is expected to be volatile and strong after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1]. - For precious metals, maintain the idea of buying on dips in the volatile trend [2]. - For copper, hold short positions [3]. - Aluminum is expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For casting aluminum alloy, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy if the futures spread widens [5]. - For alumina, short on rebounds based on the recent high of 3500 yuan [6]. - For zinc, continue the idea of short on rebounds [7]. - For lead, it is advisable to hold long positions with the support of 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - For nickel, look for opportunities to short [9]. - For tin, hold short positions at high levels [10]. - For lithium carbonate, try light - position long positions in the short term [11]. - For polysilicon, it is likely to have a wide - range shock in the range of 46,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to position control [12]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [13]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, pay attention to the off - season demand承接 ability [14]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate mainly [15]. - For coke, the downside space is relatively small in the short term [16]. - For coking coal, the downside space is relatively small in the short term [17]. - For ferrosilicon manganese, pay attention to the support at the 5800 level [18]. - For ferrosilicon, it follows the trend of ferrosilicon manganese, and the power cost may decline again [19]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold existing short positions [20]. - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spreads are weak [21]. - For asphalt, the unilateral trend follows the oil price with limited fluctuation space [22]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, it runs at a low level overall [23]. - For urea, the short - term market is weak and volatile [24]. - For methanol, pay attention to the impact of macro policies [25]. - For pure benzene, conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - For styrene, the price continues to run weakly [27]. - For polypropylene, plastic, and propylene, the prices are prone to fall and difficult to rise [28]. - For PVC and caustic soda, PVC is expected to be volatile and weak, and caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [29]. - For PX and PTA, the mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the price continues to decline [31]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term, and the processing margin of bottle - chip is restricted [32]. - For glass, it runs weakly [33]. - For rubber, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [34]. - For soda ash, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [35]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, the market is initially treated as a shock [36]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, maintain a long - on - dips strategy [37]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38]. - For domestic soybeans, the market is initially treated as a shock [39]. - For corn, the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [40]. - For live pigs, it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies [41]. - For eggs, the futures contracts after 2026 are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 2025 [42]. - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43]. - For sugar, the sugar price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. - For apples, pay attention to the price change of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45]. - For timber, maintain a long - biased strategy [46]. - For pulp, the price may return to low - level oscillations, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - For stock index futures, maintain an increased allocation of the technology - growth sector and pay attention to opportunities in the low - level consumer sector [48]. - For treasury bond futures, it may enter a repair phase, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [49]. Summaries by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. Brent's October contract still rose 2.84%, and SC09 rose 2.92%. OPEC + decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU crack spreads continued to decline, and the market fundamentals were weak [21]. - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. The demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory removal was weak [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP dropped significantly, the supply was loose, and the price was at a low level [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, and precious metals rebounded [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The London copper closed down. Pay attention to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The inventory increased, and it was under pressure in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and it was recommended to short on rebounds [7]. - **Lead**: The price dropped, and it was advisable to hold long positions with support [8]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and it was recommended to short [9]. - **Tin**: The London tin rose. Hold short positions at high levels [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply and demand were relatively balanced, and pay attention to the support at 5800 [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: It followed the trend of manganese silicon, and the power cost might decline [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season, and the short - term market was weak and volatile [24]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the supply was sufficient. Pay attention to macro policies [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price was weak, and it was recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to be weak [27]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The prices were prone to fall and difficult to rise [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC was expected to be volatile and weak, and caustic soda was under pressure at high levels [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The mid - term processing margin had a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term, and the processing margin of bottle - chip was restricted [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: It ran weakly, and the inventory increased [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans were under pressure, and the market was initially treated as a shock [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Maintain a long - on - dips strategy [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price was in a shock, and pay attention to the weather [39]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [40]. - **Live Pigs**: The futures price may have peaked, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [41]. - **Eggs**: The futures contracts after 2026 are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 2025 [42]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. - **Apples**: Pay attention to the price change of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45]. - **Timber**: The demand improved, the inventory was low, and maintain a long - biased strategy [46]. - **Pulp**: The price may return to low - level oscillations, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market was volatile. Maintain an increased allocation of the technology - growth sector and pay attention to opportunities in the low - level consumer sector [48]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It may enter a repair phase, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [49]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route decreased slightly. The主力 EC2510 contract was deeply discounted, and it is recommended to hold short positions [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish view with limited trading operability [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bearish view with limited trading operability [1] - Zinc: ★★★, showing a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish view with limited trading operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish view with limited trading operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, showing a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as mine accidents, tariff policies, and seasonal demand changes. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3][4] - Short - term and medium - term price trends vary for each metal, and investors should adjust their strategies according to market conditions and price levels [3][9][11] Summary by Metal Copper - Friday, Shanghai copper's MA60 moving average closed positive. There was a casualty accident at Chile's Codelco mine, and the market is evaluating Trump's tariff policy. Hold short positions [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated today, with a 20 - yuan spot discount in East China. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. Shanghai aluminum positions fell below 600,000 lots. Cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations, with the Baotai spot price down 100 yuan to 19,500 yuan. The scrap aluminum market had tight supply, and the aluminum alloy profit was negative. Consider going long on AD and short on AL if the price difference on the futures market widens. Alumina's industry profit has recovered, with operating capacity reaching a new high and total inventory increasing. Trade alumina short near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [3] Zinc - The 08 contract entered the delivery month, and the futures - spot price difference became zero. The TC of zinc concentrate continued to rise in August, and smelters were actively operating. The term structure flattened. The demand side provided insufficient support for prices. In August, SMM's zinc social inventory decreased from an increase, and short - sellers were cautious about re - entering the market. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] Tin - Shanghai tin fell below the M40 moving average. The spot tin price was 265,500 yuan, with a 620 - yuan premium over the delivery - month contract. It is expected to fall towards the MA60 moving average and 262,000 yuan. Hold high - level short positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened lower and oscillated, performing better than other anti - involution varieties. The market trading was active. In August, the anti - involution adjustment was approaching the end, and the futures price was at a discount to the spot price. The total market inventory remained high, and traders were positive. The output of the mid - stream decreased by 3% month - on - month. Try short - term long positions with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures oscillated downward. Affected by the polysilicon position - limit policy and inspection notice, the market sentiment cooled down. The spot price continued to fall by 100 yuan/ton. Large factories may resume production in early August, and the supply pressure still exists. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon's intraday fluctuations intensified and finally closed sharply lower. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an energy - saving inspection notice for polysilicon. The PS2509 main contract is affected by multiple factors and is likely to oscillate widely in the range of 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to position control [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - Overnight, the annual rate of the US core PCE in June rebounded to 2.8%, slightly higher than expected, and the monthly rate of 0.3% met expectations. The weekly initial jobless claims remained at a low level of 218,000. With recent geopolitical risks stable, tariff negotiations becoming clearer, and the risk of economic recession decreasing, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment suppresses the performance of precious metals, and the volatile adjustment may continue. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that rate cuts will depend on data, and attention is focused on the US non - farm payrolls guidance tonight [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Tariff News - US President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday night to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners, raising the tariff level to the highest in more than a century. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7 instead of August 1, providing a window for countries to negotiate for lower tariffs. The White House hopes to reach more agreements with countries before August 7 [2] - The US Treasury Secretary is frustrated with India. The tariff rate for Malaysian goods will be announced soon. India hopes to sign free - trade agreements with several countries. The US - Mexico tariff agreement will be extended by 90 days, and Mexico will continue to pay 25% fentanyl tariffs, 25% auto tariffs, and 50% steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs. Trump excluded 45% of Brazil's exports to the US from the 50% tariff [2] Gold Demand Report - In the second quarter of 2025, the total global gold demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,249 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In value terms, the total global gold demand soared by 45% year - on - year to a new record of $132 billion. Gold ETF investment was the key driver, with an inflow of 170 tons in Q2, compared with a small outflow in Q2 2024. The total global gold ETF demand in the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020 [2] - The total investment in gold bars and coins in Q2 also increased by 11% year - on - year to 307 tons. Chinese investors led the world, with a 44% year - on - year surge in demand for gold bars and coins to 115 tons. Indian investors continued to increase their holdings, with a demand of 46 tons in Q2. The Western market showed a differentiated trend: the net investment demand in Europe more than doubled to 28 tons in Q2, while the demand for gold bars and coins in the US halved to 9 tons [2] - Global central banks continued to buy gold, but the pace slowed down. They added 166 tons in Q2 2025. Despite the slowdown in the purchase growth rate, global central bank gold purchases remained at a significantly high level. 95% of surveyed central banks expect global central bank gold reserves to further increase in the next 12 months [2] - Gold jewelry demand continued to shrink, with consumption volume decreasing by 14% year - on - year in Q2, approaching the low level during the 2020 pandemic. The demand for gold jewelry in China and India decreased by 20% and 17% year - on - year respectively. However, in value terms, global gold jewelry consumption still rose to $3.6 billion in Q2 [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [2] - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and policy, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. The Brent 10 contract rose 2.84%, and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. OPEC +'s production increase in September can only partially hedge risks and demand. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU cracks continued to decline. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the crack spreads are also weak [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and inventory destocking was weak. The price follows the crude oil direction with limited fluctuation [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, and the domestic market was under pressure. The price was running at a low level [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was far below expectations, the dollar fell, and precious metals rebounded. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended in the fluctuating trend [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper fluctuated and closed down. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly at night. The macro - sentiment was repeated, and the inventory increased. It may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate [4] - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was recommended to be shorted on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The price continued to decline. There was support at the bottom. It is recommended to hold long positions [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The upstream price support weakened, and the inventory was at a high level. Look for opportunities to short [9] - **Tin**: LME tin rose. Pay attention to the domestic supply - demand game. Hold high - level short positions [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand was relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to the support at 5800 [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply increased slightly, and it followed the trend of manganese silicon [19] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened lower and fluctuated. The futures price was at a reasonable level. Try to go long with a light position in the short - term [11] - **Polysilicon**: The price fluctuated sharply and corrected. The PS2509 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 46000 - 47000 yuan/ton [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price fluctuated downward. The supply pressure remained, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13] - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season. The short - term market was expected to fluctuate weakly [24] - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the domestic supply was sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of macro - policies [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price weakened. There was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter, and monthly spread band - trading is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to run weakly [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene was expected to be relatively abundant, and the price was easy to fall but hard to rise. Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC continued to weaken, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda ran weakly [29] - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and there was a driving force for processing margin repair in the medium - term [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline, and the supply was expected to increase [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: The prices followed the raw materials down. There was an expectation of improved demand for short - fiber in the peak season [32] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel price fell. The demand was weak, and the "anti - involution" cooled down. The short - term price was under pressure [14] - **Iron Ore**: The price fell last week. The supply and demand changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices declined. The supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the prices were affected by policy expectations [16][17] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The "anti - involution" commodities continued to correct. The US soybean was under pressure, and the market was expected to fluctuate [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: There was a risk of increased adjustment in the short - term. A long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium - term [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is expected to consolidate. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term [38] - **Soybean No.1**: The price fluctuated and corrected. Pay attention to the weather in the US and Northeast China [39] - **Corn**: The corn futures price continued to fluctuate weakly. The US corn was under pressure, and the domestic market focused on the supply in the circulation link [40] - **Live Pig**: The futures price continued to correct. It is recommended for the industry to hedge at high prices [41] - **Egg**: The spot price fell. The 26 - year - later futures contracts are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 25 [42] - **Cotton**: Both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. The downstream demand was weak, and a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar fluctuated. The domestic sugar production had uncertainties. The price was expected to fluctuate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [44] - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. Pay attention to the price of early - maturing apples and the new - season output estimate [45] - **Timber**: The futures price fluctuated. The supply - demand situation improved, and a long - biased strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price fell. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route index is expected to decline significantly this week. It is recommended to hold short positions [20] - **Stock Index**: A - shares fluctuated lower. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short - term [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is affected by factors such as weak downstream demand, high iron - water production, and "anti - involution" policy expectations. Different varieties show different trends and characteristics, and short - term volatility is large. The market needs to pay attention to the overall trend of the commodity market and the demand - bearing capacity in the off - season [2][3] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market showed a weak shock today. This week, the apparent demand for thread weakened, production declined slightly, and inventory accumulated. The demand and production of hot roll increased, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. With high iron - water production and low inventory, the market feedback pressure is small. However, downstream demand is weak, and the market is under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was mainly in shock today. Similar to steel, the apparent demand for thread weakened, and inventory accumulated. With high iron - water production and low inventory, the market feedback pressure is small. But due to weak downstream demand and no super - expected policies on the demand side, the market is under short - term pressure [3] Coke - The coke price declined today. The fifth round of price increase in coking was proposed with an accelerated pace, but the profit is still meager. The daily coking production decreased slightly, and the overall inventory continued to decline slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness is good. Affected by policy expectations, the price volatility is large in the short term, and the downward space is relatively small [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price declined today with increased volatility. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction market improved, and the terminal inventory increased. The total inventory of coking coal decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. Affected by policy expectations, the price volatility is large in the short term, and the downward space is relatively small [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price showed a narrow - range shock today. With high iron - water production, the weekly production of silicomanganese continued to increase, but the rate was lower than expected, which supported the price. Manganese ore prices increased slightly this week, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continues to decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 5800 level [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price showed a narrow - range shock today. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand is okay. The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the market trading level is average. The on - balance - sheet inventory declined in a fluctuating manner. Ferrosilicon mainly follows the trend of silicomanganese, and its power cost may decline again after the peak electricity - consumption period [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a weekly overview of futures price and volume data, including information on various commodity categories such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures. It presents the weekly closing prices, weekly price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes for each futures variety. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Futures Price and Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 770.72 with a weekly decline of 0.85%, and silver at 8,918.00 with a 5.05% decline [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 78,400.00, down 1.07%; nickel at 119,770.00, down 3.69%; aluminum at 20,510.00, down 1.20%; tin at 264,950.00, down 2.63%, etc. [3]. - **Black Metals**: Industrial silicon closed at 8,500.00, down 12.60%;螺纹钢 at 3,203.00, down 4.56%; iron ore at 783.00, down 2.43%, etc. [3]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Crude oil closed at 527.90, up 2.92%; PVC at 5,015.00, down 6.66%; LPG at 3,965.00, down 2.03%, etc. [3][7]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean meal closed at 3,010.00, up 1.60%; soybean oil at 8,274.00, up 1.60%; palm oil at 8,910.00, down 0.29%, etc. [3][10]. - **Financial Futures**: IC closed at 6,104.00, down 1.80%; IF at 4,029.60, down 2.10%; IM at 6,542.80, down 0.95%, etc. [4]. Year - to - Date Price Changes - Some commodities with significant year - to - date increases include gold (24.79%), silver (19.38%), and red dates (18.57%), while those with significant decreases include industrial silicon (- 22.62%), natural rubber (- 19.70%), and 20 - day rubber (- 18.48%) [12]. Weekly Average Open Interest Changes - The open interest of tin, international copper, glass, red dates, and lead increased significantly [14]. Weekly Precipitated Capital Changes - The capital attention of gold, soybean oil, asphalt, copper, and rapeseed oil increased [15].