| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年08月01日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | 女女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | 女女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | 女女女 | | | 锰硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。 本周螺纹表需走弱，产量稍有回落，库存有所累积。热卷需求、产量均有所回升，库存继续小幅累积。铁 水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，地产投资继续大幅下滑，基 建增速放缓，7月制造业PMI回落至49.3，内需整体依然偏弱，出口维持相对高位。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★☆★ [1] - Apple: Not rated - 20 - rubber: Not rated - Natural rubber: Not rated - Synthetic rubber: Not rated - Log: Not rated Core Views - The market sentiment of various soft commodities is generally weak, with most commodities showing downward trends or lack of clear upward momentum. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for most commodities, while maintaining a bullish view on logs [2][3][6][7]. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract reducing positions and the 01 contract increasing positions at a slower rate. The enthusiasm for long - positions was hit. - In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profits were under pressure. - Warehouse receipts were digested slowly, and there were concerns about their quality. - The anti - involution trading cooled down, and the 9 - 1 spread dropped significantly. - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. - It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of July was moderately bearish. - In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good but may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of the 25/26 sugar production in Guangxi. - US sugar is in a downward trend, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. - As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. The weekly cold - storage apple destocking volume last week was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. - The market is focused on the new - season apple production estimate. There are still differences in the production forecast. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - RU&MR continued to decline, and BR fluctuated weakly. International trade risks increased, and the sentiment in the rubber market weakened. - Global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. - The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased this week, but some plants will be under maintenance in early August. - The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires declined. - Rubber inventories increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.105 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. - Domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. - The price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Log - The futures price fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. - The shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level, and the supply was low. - As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 cubic meters, an increase of 2.72%. - The total log inventory at national ports was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. - The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. It is expected that the futures price will continue to rise, and a bullish trading strategy is recommended [8].

Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short-term view on oil prices is oscillating and bullish, and investors can still focus on the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [2] - The crack spreads of FU and LU are both weak due to the soft fundamentals of the high- and low-sulfur fuel oil markets and the short-term macro and geopolitical support in the crude oil market [2] - The unilateral trend of asphalt follows the direction of crude oil, but the fluctuation range is relatively limited, and the low inventory still provides some support for the price [3] - The LPG market is under pressure overall, with the price running at a low level due to the downward pressure on the overseas market and the increased pressure on the delivery discount of the futures [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 09 contract falling 1.25%. The trade war suppressed market sentiment, but there were still supporting factors for sanctioned oil [2] - Trump advanced the deadline for sanctions against Russia to August 8. Last week, Indian state-owned refineries suspended purchases of Russian oil, and the US issued a new round of sanctions against Iran [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The oscillating and bullish pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, but the futures of the fuel oil series have weakened. The LU2509 contract is temporarily supported at around 3,643 yuan/ton, and the FU and LU cracks continue to decline [2] - The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the demand for ship bunkering lacked support after the peak season. The ship bunkering volume in Fujairah has been weakening month-on-month since June [2] Asphalt - Asphalt performed strongly among oil product futures today. The domestic production volume in August decreased month-on-month compared to July, and the demand recovery was delayed in the South due to typhoon and rainfall [3] - The shipments of 54 sample refineries remained flat month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase since July was stable. The commercial inventory of asphalt has been slow to decline [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, increasing the pressure of oversupply on the overseas market. The chemical profit margin improved after the import cost decreased, and there is still room for an increase in the PDH operating rate [4] - The supply was relatively loose with the overall increase in the arrival volume in July, and the domestic market was under pressure. The strengthening of crude oil recently increased the pressure on the delivery discount of the futures [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined in terms of a standard rating but described as having a weak and volatile short - term market [6] - Methanol: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited trading opportunities on the current market [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with potential for seasonally improved supply - demand in the third - quarter later stage and pressure in the fourth quarter [1][3] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, showing a weakening price trend with supply pressure [1][3] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆, with a weak price trend due to supply and demand dynamics [1][2] - Plastic (assumed to be related to Polyethylene in the context): ☆☆☆, with a weak price trend as supply increases and demand changes little [1][2] - PVC: ☆☆☆, expected to have a weak and volatile short - term price trend [1][7] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a clear bearish trend with long - term supply pressure [1][7] - PTA: ☆☆☆, with a weak market due to supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation [1][5] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, with a downward price trend and weak supply - demand [1][5] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆, with a neutral current situation but positive mid - term expectations [1][5] - Bottle - chip: ☆☆☆, facing long - term over - capacity pressure and limited processing margin recovery [1][5] - Glass: ☆☆☆, with a weak price trend [1][8] - Soda Ash: ★★★, expected to have a weak and volatile short - term price trend [1][8] Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure due to various factors such as supply - demand imbalances, changes in oil prices, and downstream demand fluctuations. Different chemical products show different price trends and market outlooks based on their specific supply - demand situations [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: Futures prices decline. Supply is expected to remain relatively abundant, and demand growth has limited support for prices, making prices more likely to fall [2] - Polyolefins: The main contracts of polyolefin futures fluctuate narrowly. Polyethylene supply increases with the restart of maintenance devices, and demand changes little, resulting in a weak price trend. Polypropylene has increased temporary shutdowns on the supply side, but demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: Futures prices decline slightly due to oil price and external sentiment. Supply increases, and the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, with potential improvement in the third - quarter later stage and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene: The main contract of futures fluctuates narrowly. A new production plan has a negative impact on the market. Supply and demand both increase, but supply pressure is relatively large, leading to a weak price trend [3] Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices decline due to oil price and market sentiment. Supply - demand is imbalanced, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. There is a driving force for margin repair in the medium term, but it depends on downstream demand recovery [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Prices continue to decline. Supply increases, and demand decreases slightly. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation [5] - Short - fiber: Prices follow raw materials down. The current situation is neutral, but new capacity is limited, and there are positive mid - term expectations [5] - Bottle - chip: Prices decline with raw materials. There is long - term over - capacity pressure, limiting the recovery of processing margins [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol: The market price continues to decline slightly. Supply is sufficient, and demand changes little. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [6] - Urea: Prices are weakly volatile. Demand enters the off - season, and production is still relatively abundant. Attention should be paid to macro and export policies [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Prices continue to weaken. Supply is high, and demand is in the off - season, resulting in inventory accumulation and a weak price trend [7] - Caustic Soda: Prices are weakly running. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and prices are expected to be under pressure at high levels [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Prices decline due to policy sentiment. Supply - demand pressure exists, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [8] - Glass: Prices are weakly running. Market sentiment fades, and the market returns to a real - trading situation with inventory accumulation [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Corn: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ (Weak Buy) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (Weak Buy) [1] Core Views - The prices of "anti - involution" commodities continued to decline, and the focus of the market was on them, making agricultural products less attractive. The third - round economic and trade negotiations between China and the US suspended the addition of tariffs, which may be extended for 90 days. The US soybean is likely to have an early - stage high - yield expectation, and the market should be treated as volatile for now [3]. - For soybeans, the domestic soybean contract price showed a volatile correction. In the short term, attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance. The US Midwest has good weather, which is conducive to a high - yield of US soybeans [2]. - Regarding soybean oil and palm oil, the price difference between US and Chinese soybean oil may cause Chinese soybean oil to strengthen in the medium - term. Due to the long - term development of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's entry into the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the prices of domestic and foreign rapeseed products are mainly in a range - bound state. The supply of new - season Canadian rapeseed is affected by weather, and the trade relationship between the US and Canada may affect the export of Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6]. - For corn, the auction results of imported corn were average, and the corn futures continued to run weakly in a volatile manner. The US corn is under pressure, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7]. - For live pigs, the futures prices continued to correct, and the supply is expected to be sufficient in the medium - term. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. - For eggs, the near - month futures prices of eggs continued to fall to new lows, while the far - month futures were relatively resistant to decline. If the egg prices can reduce production capacity through price drops in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The domestic soybean main - contract price showed a volatile correction. The total trading volume of domestic soybean purchase and sale was 40,302 tons, with a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,268 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is a risk of waterlogging in low - lying farmland in Northeast China. The US Midwest has good weather, and there may be a high - yield of US soybeans this year [2]. - The "anti - involution" commodities continued to decline, and the US soybean is under pressure. About 5% of the US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought as of July 29, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans is 70%, at a high level in the same period of history. There may be an early - stage high - yield expectation for US soybeans, and the market should be treated as volatile for now [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price difference between US and Chinese soybean oil rose and then slightly declined this week. Historically, the price difference usually peaks and then falls in the third quarter. In the medium - term, Chinese soybean oil may strengthen to catch up with the overseas market. A strategy of buying on dips is maintained for soybean oil and palm oil, and attention should be paid to the risk of the oil - strong and meal - weak situation [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The prices of domestic and foreign rapeseed products are mainly in a range - bound state. The initial inventory of new - season Canadian rapeseed is low, and the yield is closely related to weather. The yield forecast by the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture and Agri - Food in late July is 17.8 million tons. The US has raised the tariff on Canadian goods, which may affect the export of Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6]. Corn - Two auctions of imported corn were held by Sinograin today. The transaction rate of US genetically - modified corn was 31% with a volume of 186,200 tons, and that of Ukrainian non - genetically - modified corn was 68% with a volume of 8,600 tons. The corn futures continued to run weakly in a volatile manner. About 7% of the US corn - producing areas were affected by drought as of July 29, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The live - pig futures prices continued to correct, and the performance of related stocks in the breeding industry was in sync with the futures market. The short - term supply decreased, leading to a rise in spot prices. However, the supply is expected to be sufficient in the medium - term, and it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. Eggs - The near - month futures prices of eggs continued to fall to new lows, while the far - month futures were relatively resistant to decline. The spot prices were stable with a weak trend. If the egg prices can reduce production capacity through price drops in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year, and the far - month futures prices have shown some signs of this expectation [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and investors can focus on the hedging value of out - of - the - money call options on crude oil [2] - Precious metals may continue to experience shock adjustments, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm employment guidance [3] - For copper, short positions should be held [4] - Aluminum and related products are under short - term pressure, but casting aluminum alloy has certain resilience in the medium term [5][6] - For alumina, short positions can be considered near the recent high of 3500 yuan [7] - For zinc, short positions on rallies are the general direction, but short - term macro fluctuations need to be watched out for [8] - For nickel and stainless steel, look for opportunities to short sell [10] - For tin, hold short positions at high levels [11] - For lithium carbonate, try short - term long positions with a light position [12] - For polysilicon, it is likely to have a wide - range shock within the range of 45000 - 55000 yuan/ton, and position control is crucial [13] - For industrial silicon, it will continue to be in a shock pattern in the short term [14] - For steel products, the short - term market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the commodity market [15] - For iron ore, the trend is expected to be mainly shock [16] - For coke, the price is affected by steel prices [17] - For coking coal, the further downward space is relatively limited [18] - For manganese silicon, pay attention to the support at the 5800 level [19] - For silicon iron, it follows the trend of manganese silicon, and the power cost may decline again [20] - For the container shipping index (European line), the short - term shock pattern is difficult to break [21] - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread is weak [22] - For asphalt, the price follows the direction of crude oil, and the low inventory supports the price [23] - For liquefied petroleum gas, it operates at a low level [23] - For urea, the short - term market is weakly volatile [24] - For methanol, pay attention to the impact of macro policies [25] - For pure benzene, conduct monthly spread band operations [26] - For styrene, the cost is supported by oil prices, but the supply - demand situation is weak [27] - For polypropylene, plastic, and propylene, the polyolefin futures continue the range - bound pattern [28] - For PVC and caustic soda, PVC is expected to be weakly volatile, and caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [29] - For PX and PTA, the mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30] - For ethylene glycol, the price continues to decline [31] - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term [32] - For glass, the market returns to reality trading [33] - For rubber, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [34] - For soda ash, it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [35] - For soybeans and soybean meal, the market is first treated as shock [36] - For soybean oil and palm oil, maintain a long - position strategy on dips [37] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38] - For soybeans (domestic), pay attention to weather and policy guidance [39] - For corn, the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weakly volatile at the bottom [40] - For live pigs, the futures may have peaked and are likely to decline [41] - For eggs, the 26 - year - later contracts are relatively stronger, and wait for the market to trade the cyclical reversal of egg prices [42] - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43] - For sugar, the short - term price is expected to be in shock, and wait and see [44] - For apples, wait and see the price changes of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45] - For timber, maintain a long - position strategy [46] - For pulp, the price may return to low - level shock, and wait and see [47] - For stock indices, maintain an allocation to the technology growth sector and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - For treasury bonds, the futures may enter a repair stage, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [49] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. Trade wars suppress market sentiment, but there are still supporting factors from sanctioned oil. The geopolitical game window has been advanced, and oil prices are short - term volatile and slightly stronger [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread has further declined. The market fundamentals are weak, and it is affected by the macro and geopolitical support of the crude oil market [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, the supply is loose, and the domestic market is under pressure. The price is at a low - level overall [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The US 6 - month core PCE annual rate rebounded, and the economic recession risk decreased. The safe - haven sentiment cooled, suppressing precious metals, which may continue to adjust [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The copper price fell below the MA60 moving average. Trump's tariff on refined copper imports was excluded, and short positions should be held [4] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price continued to decline. The inventory increased, and the short - term is under pressure and volatile [5] - **Zinc**: The macro - optimistic sentiment faded, and the zinc price returned to fundamental trading. The supply - demand pattern of supply increase and weak demand remains unchanged, and short positions on rallies are the main strategy [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel price is volatile, and the upstream price support has weakened. Look for opportunities to short sell [10] - **Tin**: The tin price fell below the MA60 moving average, and short positions at high levels should be held [11] - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: Suppression factors on the manganese ore inventory have been improved. The price bottom is rising, and attention should be paid to the 5800 support level [19] - **Silicon Iron**: It follows the trend of manganese silicon, and the power cost may decline again [20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The futures price dropped significantly. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the short - term market is weakly volatile [24] - **Methanol**: The port is seasonally accumulating inventory, and the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of macro policies [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price is weakly volatile. The short - term is in shock, and monthly spread band operations are recommended [26] - **Styrene**: The cost is supported by oil prices, but the supply - demand situation is weak [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The polyolefin futures continue the range - bound pattern, and the market lacks upward momentum [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to be weakly volatile, and caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [29] - **PX & PTA**: The prices declined. The mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continues to decline, and the supply is increasing [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains** - **Corn**: The futures price is weakly volatile. The US corn has a good growth situation, and the domestic market focuses on the supply in the circulation link [40] - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean has a high excellent - good rate, and the market is first treated as shock [36] - **Oils** - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices are adjusting. Maintain a long - position strategy on dips and pay attention to the weather and policies [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38] - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: The price is falling. The downstream demand is weak, and a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: The US sugar trend is downward, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in shock in the short term [44] - **Apples**: The price is volatile. Pay attention to the price of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45] - **Eggs**: The futures price dropped significantly. The 26 - year - later contracts are relatively stronger, waiting for the cyclical reversal of egg prices [42] - **Live Pigs**: The futures price dropped significantly, and it may have peaked and be likely to decline [41] Building Materials - **Glass**: The market sentiment declined, and the glass price is weakly operating [33] - **Lumber**: The demand is good, the inventory is low, and the price is expected to rise [46] - **Pulp**: The price is falling. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. It may return to low - level shock [47] Financial Products - **Stock Indices**: The domestic equity market has fluctuations in the short term, and the medium - term is relatively positive. Maintain an allocation to the technology growth sector and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price strengthened, and the yield curve is likely to steepen in the short term [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of crude oil is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, and investors can focus on the hedging value of out - of - the - money call options [2]. - Precious metals may continue to experience oscillating adjustments, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls guidance [3]. - Copper short positions should be held as the import tariff on refined copper is excluded, reversing the physical import arbitrage expectation [4]. - Aluminum may continue to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term due to inventory accumulation and weak consumption [5]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are recommended according to their specific supply - demand and market conditions, such as short - selling aluminum oxide, waiting for inventory verification for aluminum, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. Although trade wars suppress market sentiment, there are still supporting factors from sanctions on oil. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spreads of FU and LU are further declining due to weak fundamentals and the support of the crude oil market [22]. - **Asphalt**: In August, domestic production is expected to decline compared to July. Demand recovery is delayed, and inventory reduction is weak. The price trend follows crude oil [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is under pressure due to supply loosening. The domestic market is also under pressure, and the price is generally low [23]. - **Urea**: The futures price has fallen sharply. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the short - term market is expected to be weakly oscillating [24]. - **Methanol**: A coastal olefin plant is under maintenance, and the port is accumulating inventory seasonally. The domestic supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [25]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. Trump's tariff policy affects the import arbitrage expectation, and short positions should be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price is declining. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, and the short - term trend is under pressure [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum. The short - term price is under pressure, but it has certain resilience in the medium term [6]. - **Alumina**: The industry profit has recovered, but the market is in an oversupply state. Short - selling is recommended near the recent high of 3500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The macro - optimistic sentiment has faded. The supply - demand pattern is supply - increasing and demand - weakening. Short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is oscillating. The upstream price support has weakened, and short - selling is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. High - position short positions should be held [11]. Chemical Commodities - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The demand for propylene has increased slightly, but the market is lackluster. Polyolefin futures are in an interval - consolidation pattern [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is weakening, and the short - term price is expected to be oscillating and weakening. Caustic soda is running weakly, and the long - term price is under pressure [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA have fallen. The mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs the recovery of downstream demand [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is declining. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas supply is stabilizing [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: The prices have followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium term, while bottle chips have long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure due to good weather and high excellent - rate. The domestic soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The market is waiting for the result of trade negotiations [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices of both are adjusting. A long - position allocation strategy at low prices is recommended, and attention should be paid to weather and policies [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price is expected to be in a consolidation state. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price is oscillating and weakening. The US corn is growing well, and the domestic market focuses on the supply in the circulation link [40]. - **Cotton**: The price is declining. The downstream demand is weak, and the new - season production in Xinjiang is expected to increase. The operation strategy is to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [43]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar trend is downward, and the Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating [44]. - **Apple**: The price is oscillating. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [45]. - **Wood**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the futures price is expected to rise. A long - position strategy is recommended [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is falling. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level oscillation [47]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market declined, and the mid - term market is expected to be relatively positive. Allocation to technology - growth sectors and low - level consumer sectors can be considered [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price of treasury bonds has strengthened. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short term [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Bean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Sell**: Live pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The overall commodity market in China is experiencing a decline, with anti - involution related varieties falling and market sentiment cooling. Attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance in the short term [2][4] - The Fed's July interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate, and the third round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations suspended the addition of tariffs. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the soybean has a high excellent rate, which may lead to an early bumper harvest [3] - For soybean oil and palm oil, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained, and caution should be exercised regarding the short - term situation of strong oil and weak meal [4] - For eggs, if the egg price can complete capacity reduction through price decline in the second half of this year, there may be a cyclical reversal [9] Summary by Category Soybean - The main contract of domestic soybeans reduced positions and the price pulled back. The market sentiment cooled, and there were policies on two - way purchase and sale. Short - term attention should be paid to precipitation in the Northeast and the weather in the US Midwest [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The commodity market declined. The Fed maintained the interest rate, and Sino - US trade negotiations were the focus. The US soybean has a high excellent rate, and the domestic soybean meal inventory is gradually increasing. The market is expected to be volatile [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean oil and palm oil reduced positions and adjusted. The US soybean oil is in a sideways shock, and the oil - meal ratio is at a historical high. A strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related contracts fell, and the main contract positions declined slightly. Rapeseed meal pulled back 1.3% today. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [6] Corn - The corn futures continued to be weak in a shock. There were corn auctions, and the US corn has a high excellent rate. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures fell sharply. The supply is sufficient in the medium - term, and the probability of a decline after the peak is high. It is recommended for the industry to hedge on rallies [8] Eggs - The egg futures fell, and the off - season contracts broke through the support level. If the egg price can reduce capacity in the second half of the year, there may be a cyclical reversal next year [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - Overnight, the US announced that the annualized quarterly rate of GDP in Q2 rebounded by 3%, exceeding expectations, and ADP employment increased by 104,000, also exceeding expectations and the previous value. After the data release, the US dollar rebounded, and precious metals fell under pressure. The Fed meeting maintained the interest rate as expected, with increasing internal differences. Powell reiterated that rate cuts would depend on data. Recently, geopolitical risks have been stable, tariff negotiations have become clearer, the risk of economic recession has decreased, and the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment has suppressed the performance of precious metals, and the shock adjustment may continue. Attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims and PCE data tonight [1] Summary According to Related Content Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%. Governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated rate cuts. Powell avoided guiding on a September rate cut, stating that the current monetary policy stance is in a favorable position, emphasizing dependence on data. The market's bet on the Fed's full - year rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP [2] Tariff Policies - Trump signed an executive order to suspend the minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods. He set August 1st as a non - extendable deadline, with India to pay 25% tariffs and be fined for purchasing military and energy products from Russia starting August 1st. He also announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products (excluding copper ore and cathode copper) starting August 1st, causing US copper to plummet 18%. An executive order was signed to impose a 40% tariff on Brazil, making the total tariff reach 50% (excluding aircraft and energy sectors) 7 days later. A comprehensive trade agreement was reached with South Korea, with a 15% tariff on South Korea, and South Korea will invest $350 billion and purchase $100 billion worth of energy products. Canada may not end trade negotiations with the US by August 1st, and France is negotiating for tariff exemptions on wine and spirits [2] US Economic Data - The US economic growth in Q2 was 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%. The ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding the expected 75,000, rebounding to the highest growth level since March [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading board, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading board, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by different factors such as tariffs, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic sentiment. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Copper prices declined on Thursday, breaking below the MA60 moving average. Trump excluded refined copper from import tariff hikes, mainly targeting copper processed products, reversing the physical import arbitrage expectation. Hold short positions [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai Aluminum slightly corrected, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by over 10,000 tons compared to Monday, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. The position of Shanghai Aluminum continued to fall from a high to below 600,000 lots, and it may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai Aluminum, with a Baotai spot price of 19,600 yuan. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative, with short - term price pressure but some resilience in the medium term compared to aluminum prices. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy if the price difference on the futures market widens. Recently, the alumina price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, the operating capacity has reached a new high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. Participate in short positions near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [3] Zinc - The macro - optimistic sentiment faded, and zinc trading returned to the fundamentals. Long positions continued to reduce, and the weighted position of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 9,725 lots to 214,000 lots. The SMM0 zinc was quoted at par with the near - month futures contract. After the sharp decline in zinc prices, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to fix prices at low points increased significantly, and the spot trading improved. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased to 103,200 tons. The pattern of increasing supply and weak demand in the fundamentals remains unchanged, and short - selling on rebounds is still the main strategy, but be vigilant against macro - economic fluctuations in the short term [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai Nickel fluctuated, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the anti - involution theme cooled down, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals may return to the fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,150 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel was 100 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened significantly. The nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 967,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Look for opportunities to short [7] Tin - Shanghai Tin declined and broke below the MA40 moving average. The current spot tin price is 265,500 yuan, with a real - time premium of 620 yuan over the delivery - month contract. It is expected that the tin price will decline towards the MA60 moving average and 262,000 yuan. Hold short positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened lower and fluctuated, performing stronger than other anti - involution varieties, and the market trading was active. The platform price is 72,000 yuan, and there is a situation of high - price but no trading in the spot market. The total market inventory continued to rise to a recent high of 143,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 55,000 tons, the downstream inventory slightly increased by 1,600 tons to 43,000 tons, and the trader inventory continued to increase by 1,660 tons to 45,000 tons. Traders are positive, and the sentiment of bottom - fishing in the spot market continues. The latest price of Australian ore has rebounded significantly from a low. The mid - stream production is generally stable, with a 3% month - on - month decline. Technically, the lithium carbonate futures price has returned to a reasonable range, and there is still potential for theme - based trading. Try long positions with a light position in the short term [9] Industrial Silicon - After the introduction of the position - limit policy for industrial silicon futures, the market declined with a reduction in positions. The silicon price has fluctuated sharply recently. The current multi - silicon market sentiment transmission effect has temporarily ended, and industrial silicon may gradually return to the fundamental - driven logic, continuing to fluctuate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined significantly with a reduction in positions under the position - limit policy. The average price of N - type dense material is 45,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type re -投料 is 46,500 yuan/ton. Supported by the full cost, the upward trend of the spot price is expected to stabilize gradually. In the future, the PS2509 main contract is affected by factors such as the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, regulatory control, and supply - demand contradictions. The support level is in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 55,000 yuan/ton. It is likely to fluctuate widely within the range, and there are still fluctuations under policy uncertainties. Pay attention to position control [11]