| Milli | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月24日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属上涨。鲍威尔发表简短讲话未提及货币政策，白宫和美联储的对抗令美联储独立性问题继续受到 关注。近期宏观情绪积极,商品亢奋轮动上涨,贵金属跟随,金银比仍有向下空间。美国关税政策截止日前 市场不确定性仍强,风险情绪易反复,贵金属宽幅震荡为主,不宜追涨。 ★关税 -- 1美国财长贝森特:8月1日对所有国家来说都是一个"较为硬性的最后期限"。欧盟贸易谈判与 俄乌制裁谈判分开进行。日本的谈判进展非常顺利。②加拿大安大略省省长：电力出口税仍在考虑之中。③ 韩国考虑做出痛苦让步,以避免被美国全面征收关税。④特朗普:与菲律宾达成贸易协议,将对菲律宾征收 19%的关 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The global platinum supply is highly concentrated with low elasticity, and there is a supply - demand imbalance in the market [1][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Global Platinum Supply Pattern 1.1 Global Platinum Supply Concentration and Elasticity - South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output decreased by 4% year - on - year to 120 tons, accounting for 71% of the global total. Zimbabwe and Russia each accounted for 11%, and other countries' total output accounted for only 8% [1] - Long - term trends, under - performance of new projects, mine depletion, and shutdowns have continuously restricted supply, resulting in insufficient output elasticity of major global platinum - producing countries. In 2024, factors such as power outages and production restructuring led to a decline in global platinum output [1] - In 2024, global platinum production was 195.9 tons. Global mined platinum output decreased by 567 kg to 155.9 tons, and the proportion of recycled platinum was 20.4%. The global platinum recycling volume increased by 3% year - on - year to 39.97 tons. It is expected that in 2025, global mined platinum output will decrease by 4% year - on - year to 150.1 tons [4] 1.2 Platinum Global Balance - The main consumers of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. China's demand accounts for 26% of the global total, with industrial demand being the largest. Western Europe and North America account for 20% and 18% respectively, with automotive catalyst demand being the largest. Japan accounts for 9%, mainly in automotive catalysts and jewelry. India's industrial demand is small, but its automotive catalyst and jewelry demand are increasing, and its future demand is expected to exceed Japan's [6] - In 2024, global platinum group metal demand decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 198 tons, with a global platinum supply shortage of 1.98 tons. Automotive industry platinum demand decreased by 3% to 63.4 tons, jewelry demand decreased slightly by 0.3 tons to 38.3 tons, industrial demand remained flat at 63.4 tons, and hydrogen energy demand increased slightly by 0.3 tons to 2 tons [11] - The global platinum balance sheet shows trends in mine production, recycling, total demand, and supply - demand differences from 2017 to 2025f [13]

安如泰山 信守承诺 铂把系列(三):全球把金供需格局 点有成金 1 、全球锂金供需格局 1.1 锂金供应集中度高、弹性差 USGS数据显示，俄罗斯、南非、加拿大、美国是全球把金的主要供应国，2024年俄罗斯和南非的贺金产量 分别占全球总产量的43%和41%，加拿大和美国铝金产量分别占9%和5%，其他国家把金总产量占比近2%。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 图 2:2024年全球把矿产量结构 图 3: 全球把金矿产量与回收量 1.2 锂金全球平衡 其他国家, 世 100 80 俄罗斯, 60 43% 40 20 南非,41 0 俄罗斯 南非 图 1: 全球把矿主产国供给弹性差 资料来源:USGS、国投期货 资料来源:USGS、国投期货 Heraeus的金年刊数据，2024年全球把金总产量同比增0.7吨至25.6吨，其再生比例为28.5%。具体看，2024 年全球肥金矿产量同比增0.6%至183.4吨，2025年Impala Canada产量下降和Stillwater重组拖累下，预计纪金 矿产量同比下降5%至174.8吨。2024年纪金回收量同比仅下降0.6%至73.1吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Platinum and palladium are important members of the platinum - group metals (PGMs), with high demand in practical applications. Their resource distribution is concentrated, and the supply chain has an "oligopoly" structure, which is easily affected by various factors [1][14]. - The platinum - group metal industry chain includes upstream mining, mid - stream processing and recycling, and downstream terminal applications and investment. Each link has its own characteristics and development trends [14]. - The demand for platinum and palladium in different terminal applications varies. For example, palladium is more common in gasoline engine exhaust treatment, while platinum is superior in diesel engine exhaust catalysts. The application of platinum and palladium in emerging industries such as hydrogen energy is expected to grow [41][48]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Variety Overview 3.1.1 Natural Properties - Platinum (Pt) and palladium (Pd) are silver - white metals, belonging to the platinum - group metals (PGMs) along with ruthenium, rhodium, iridium, and osmium. Platinum has a crustal content of five - hundred - millionths, and palladium has a crustal content of one - hundred - millionth [1]. - Platinum has a high melting point, good ductility, excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, high density, and is chemically inert. It is mainly used in industrial catalysts, jewelry, electronics, etc. Palladium has a relatively lower melting point, can adsorb gases like hydrogen, is corrosion - resistant, and is mainly used in the catalyst field [2][4]. 3.1.2 Distribution and Classification of Platinum - Group Resources - Platinum - group metals exist in nature in the form of natural elements and complex ores. Platinum deposits are generally related to ultramafic rocks and can be formed through magma action, hydrothermal processes, and exogenous deposition [5]. - Platinum - group metal ores can be divided into primary deposits and exogenous sand deposits. The primary deposits can be further divided into vein platinum deposits mainly composed of platinum - group metals and copper - nickel - type deposits hosted in ultrabasic rocks [5]. - Global platinum - group metal resources are mainly concentrated in five regions: South Africa's Bushveld Complex, Russia's Norilsk - Talnakh region, the US's Stillwater Complex, Zimbabwe's Great Dyke, and Canada's Sudbury [11]. 3.2 Platinum - Group Metal Industry Chain 3.2.1 Upstream Mining - The platinum - group metal supply chain has an "oligopoly" structure. Most of the raw material supply and smelting are in the hands of a few integrated mining and smelting producers [14]. - In 2024, the global PGMs resource was estimated to exceed 100,000 tons, and the reserves exceeded 81,000 tons. South Africa's PGMs reserves were 63,000 tons, accounting for nearly 80% of the global total [21]. - The production of platinum and palladium mines is facing bottlenecks due to factors such as resource oligopoly, declining ore grades, rising mining costs, and strict environmental policies. In 2024, the global palladium mine production was 190 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.65%, and the platinum mine production was 170 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.02% [25]. 3.2.2 Platinum - Group Material Supply and Recycling - Global precious metal multinational groups such as Umicore, Johnson Matthey, Heraeus, and Tanaka dominate the platinum - group metal material processing and recycling fields [30]. - As high - grade resources become scarce, secondary resources of platinum - group metals are becoming increasingly important. However, domestic recycling enterprises face fierce competition, and the supply of secondary resources is becoming increasingly tight [30]. 3.2.3 Terminal Applications - **Automotive Exhaust Catalysts**: Palladium is more common in gasoline engine exhaust treatment, while platinum is superior in diesel engine exhaust catalysts. The choice of platinum - group metals in catalysts depends on catalytic effect, cost - effectiveness, availability, and exhaust emission standards [41]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is more suitable for high - end jewelry markets due to its high density, good ductility, and chemical stability. Palladium has limited use in jewelry due to its hardness and tendency to darken [45]. - **Other Industrial Applications**: Platinum and palladium are widely used in chemical industry, glass manufacturing, electronics, medical, hydrogen energy, and other fields. Their application in emerging industries such as hydrogen energy is expected to grow [46][48]. 3.2.4 Investment Channels - Platinum can be invested in through physical products (platinum bars, platinum coins), financial products (platinum futures contracts, platinum ETFs), and platinum - related stocks. The investment demand for platinum is increasing, especially in the context of high gold prices [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The market is gradually returning to rationality after being stimulated by macro news, and each chemical product is affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends [2][3][4] - Different chemical products have different investment opportunities and trends, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and policy trends [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly lower. The market lacks fundamental support for upward movement, and the spot market supply - demand support is weak [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts closed lower. Polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene price has a small upward shift, but the price increase space is limited due to weak demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene followed the external market sentiment and oscillated lower. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures main contract faced technical pressure and oscillated lower. The macro - positive support weakened, and the spot trading was poor [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rose and then fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and the demand for upstream PX was dragged down. The processing margin of PTA has room to repair [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated lower. The downstream demand was weak, and the supply increased. The supply advantage will weaken [4] - Short fiber followed the raw materials to rise and then fall. The demand is expected to pick up in the medium - term. Bottle chip inventory is stable after production reduction, but the profit repair drive is limited [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures main contract oscillated and corrected. The port unexpectedly destocked, and the domestic main - producing area enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance [5] - Urea futures opened high and went low. The domestic downstream demand is weak, but the export is advancing, and the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fell from a high. The spot trading volume was mediocre, the demand was in the off - season, and the supply increased. The short - term price may follow the overall sentiment [6] - Caustic soda fell from a high. The spot performance was average, the high - price goods sales slowed down, and the impact of macro factors is large in the short - term [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell. The inventory decreased, the spot price rose, and the supply was high. The short - term is more affected by macro - sentiment [7] - Glass fell from a high. The industry continued to destock, the profit slightly recovered, and the short - term is expected to follow the macro - sentiment [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium are important members of the platinum group metals (PGMs), with high demand in practical applications. The supply chain of PGMs is in a "pyramid" shape, and the upstream mine resources are highly concentrated. The consumption of platinum and palladium is mainly in the fields of catalysts, jewelry, and other industrial applications, and there are various investment channels [1][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Variety Overview - **Natural Attributes**: Platinum and palladium are silver - white metals, belonging to PGMs and precious metals. Platinum has a crustal content of five - hundred - millionths, and palladium has a crustal content of one - hundred - millionth. Platinum is mainly used in industrial catalysts, jewelry, etc., while palladium is mainly used in the catalyst field [1][2][4]. - **Resource Distribution and Classification**: PGMs are mostly in the form of composite ores. Platinum deposits are related to ultramafic rocks and are formed through tectonic processes. PGM mines can be divided into primary and exogenous sand deposits. The main formation causes include magmatic action, magmatic hydrothermal processes, and exogenous deposition. Global PGM resources are mainly concentrated in five regions, and most of China's PGM deposits are symbiotic or associated ores [5][11]. 3.2 Platinum Group Metal Industry Chain - **Upstream**: The upstream mine resources are highly concentrated. South Africa is the main producer, accounting for nearly 80% of the global reserves. The production of platinum and palladium mines is facing bottlenecks, and the top 5 platinum producers account for 82% of the supply [21][25][26]. - **Material Supply and Recycling**: The platinum - group material industry is technology and capital - intensive. Multinational groups dominate the processing and recycling fields. In China, the recycling capacity of PGMs is expanding, but the secondary resource supply is becoming tight, and domestic enterprises face fierce competition [30]. - **Terminal Applications** - **Automotive Catalysts**: Platinum and palladium are mainly used as catalysts in automobile exhaust purification. Platinum has better performance in diesel engines, while palladium is more commonly used in gasoline engines [32][35][41]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is suitable for high - end jewelry due to its high density, good ductility, and stability. Palladium is less used in jewelry due to its processing difficulty and color change [45]. - **Other Industrial Applications**: In the chemical, glass, electronics, medical, and hydrogen energy industries, platinum and palladium play important roles as catalysts or materials [46][47][48]. - **Investment Channels**: Platinum investment includes physical investment (platinum bars and coins), platinum accumulation plans (PAP), platinum ETFs, futures, forwards, and indirect investment through stocks [50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global platinum supply is highly concentrated with low elasticity, and the output of major producers is insufficient. In 2024, the global platinum output declined, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2025. The demand for platinum in different regions and fields varies, and the global platinum market has a supply - demand gap [1][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Global Platinum Supply Pattern - **Supply Concentration**: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output decreased by 4% year - on - year to 120 tons, accounting for 71% of the global total. Zimbabwe and Russia each accounted for 11%, and other countries accounted for 8% [1] - **Supply Constraints**: Long - term trends, sub - optimal new project implementation, mine depletion, and shutdowns have continuously restricted supply, resulting in insufficient output elasticity of major global platinum producers. In 2024, factors such as power outages in Brazil and Zimbabwe, restructuring in North America, and early production decline in Canada dragged down platinum output [1] - **Production and Recycling in 2024**: The global platinum output in 2024 was 195.9 tons. The global mined platinum volume decreased by 567 kg year - on - year to 155.9 tons, and the global recycled platinum accounted for 20.4%, with the recycling volume increasing by 3% year - on - year to 39.97 tons [4] - **Production Forecast for 2025**: It is expected that the global mined platinum volume will decline by 4% year - on - year to 150.1 tons in 2025 due to the decline in South African output and the restructuring of Stillwater in North America. The catalyst recycling volume is expected to improve significantly, but the US tariff on cars may drag down the US platinum recycling volume [4] 1.2 Platinum Global Balance - **Consumption Regions and Fields**: The main consumption regions of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. China's demand accounts for 26% of the global total, with industrial demand being the largest. Western Europe and North America account for 20% and 18% respectively, with automotive catalyst demand being the largest. Japan accounts for 9%, mainly in automotive catalysts and jewelry. India's industrial demand is small, but its automotive catalyst and jewelry demand are increasing, and it may exceed Japan in the future [6] - **Demand in 2024**: In 2024, the global demand for platinum group metals decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons. Automotive industry demand decreased by 3% to 63.4 tons, jewelry demand decreased slightly by 0.3 tons to 38.3 tons, industrial demand remained flat at 63.4 tons, and hydrogen energy demand increased slightly by 0.3 tons to 2 tons, accounting for 1% [11] - **Global Platinum Balance Table**: The table shows the changes in mine production, recycling, total demand, and supply - demand balance of global platinum from 2017 to 2025f. The supply gap is expected to widen in 2025 [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the current market, advising waiting and seeing [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the current market, recommending waiting and seeing [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The futures prices of various soft commodities show different trends. The prices of cotton, sugar, apple, and timber are in a state of shock or correction, while pulp is rising, and 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber are falling. The market sentiment and fundamentals of each commodity vary, and the operation suggestions are mainly waiting and seeing, with some commodities having the option of intraday operation or buying at low prices [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today with sharp fluctuations. The 9 - 1 spread also decreased. The inventory depletion rate slowed down in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. In June 2025, the cotton import was 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. Downstream cotton procurement remains cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new year. The cotton yarn market has average trading and strong prices. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the details of Sino - US trade. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region in the 25/26 season is 72 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. However, most international consulting companies believe that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil will remain above 40 million tons. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, the sugar import was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons; the import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although there is an increase in production in Guangxi this year, due to the fast sales rhythm, the inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. However, the US sugar trend is still downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is relatively limited. It is expected that the sugar price will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. New - season early - maturing apples began to be supplied to the market. The price of 65 apples in Yuncheng area increased by 0.2 - 0.3 yuan per catty year - on - year, and traders are bullish. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. The western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period this year, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. The flower quantity in the producing areas is sufficient this year, but there are still differences in the yield estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all declined in a fluctuating manner. The sentiment in the futures market was divided. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber spot price continued to rise. The Asian price of the external butadiene port increased while the European price was stable. The supply of global natural rubber is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there are strong winds and rains in the Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. The demand side shows that the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to rise significantly. The inventory of tire finished products increased. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 634,600 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,600 tons. The strategy is to rebound [6] Pulp - Today, pulp continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,950 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,480 yuan per ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,150 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.181 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, the pulp import was still high year - on - year. The pulp supply is relatively loose, the demand is still weak, and downstream buyers tend to bargain. The pulp valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [7] Timber - The futures price corrected. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 cubic meters. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the log shipment volume from New Zealand will remain low, and there is certain positive news on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the price lacks the driving force to continue to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

安如泰山 信守承诺 铂把系列(三):全球把金供需格局 点有成金 1 、全球锂金供需格局 1.1 锂金供应集中度高、弹性差 USGS数据显示，俄罗斯、南非、加拿大、美国是全球把金的主要供应国，2024年俄罗斯和南非的贺金产量 分别占全球总产量的43%和41%，加拿大和美国铝金产量分别占9%和5%，其他国家把金总产量占比近2%。 其他国家, 世 100 80 俄罗斯, 60 43% 40 20 南非,41 0 俄罗斯 南非 图 1: 全球把矿主产国供给弹性差 资料来源:USGS、国投期货 资料来源:USGS、国投期货 Heraeus的金年刊数据，2024年全球把金总产量同比增0.7吨至25.6吨，其再生比例为28.5%。具体看，2024 年全球肥金矿产量同比增0.6%至183.4吨，2025年Impala Canada产量下降和Stillwater重组拖累下，预计纪金 矿产量同比下降5%至174.8吨。2024年纪金回收量同比仅下降0.6%至73.1吨，新车销售低迷，欧、美、日汽车催 化剂回收偏低，中国汽车"以旧换新"补贴导致旧车报废增加对冲了部分减量。2025年中国补贴政策推动下， ℃金回收量有望进一步提升，但 ...

| 《八》 国控期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月23日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | な女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落,SC09合约跌0.12%。上周我们观察到强现实因素对油价的支撑减弱,并将市场评级队偏强 调整为中性震荡,本周月差、现货升贴水及裂解进一步印证了这一判断。8月1日前美国对巴西、欧盟、加拿大 和墨西哥的对等关税上调仍有不确定性,相关利空风险大于俄乌、伊核相应的地缘风险,油价或转为承压震荡 为主；随着8月底、9月初伊核、俄乌谈判最终期限的临近，8月地缘博弈或再次加剧，届时原油市场有望再度获 ...