| 《八》 国控期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月23日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | な女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落,SC09合约跌0.12%。上周我们观察到强现实因素对油价的支撑减弱,并将市场评级队偏强 调整为中性震荡,本周月差、现货升贴水及裂解进一步印证了这一判断。8月1日前美国对巴西、欧盟、加拿大 和墨西哥的对等关税上调仍有不确定性,相关利空风险大于俄乌、伊核相应的地缘风险,油价或转为承压震荡 为主；随着8月底、9月初伊核、俄乌谈判最终期限的临近，8月地缘博弈或再次加剧，届时原油市场有望再度获 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: ★☆☆ for rebar, ★☆★ for hot-rolled coil [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall situation of the black metal market is complex, with different trends in each sub - sector. The "anti - involution" concept dominates the market, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and macro - level expectations. Attention should be paid to policy changes on both supply and demand sides [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Rebar: In the off - season, demand is weak, production continues to decline, and inventory accumulates slightly at a low level. Hot - rolled coil demand has resilience, production continues to fall, and inventory drops slightly. Iron - water production rises and remains high, and the market's negative feedback pressure is low under the low - inventory pattern. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively high. The market is affected by "anti - involution" and shows volatile fluctuations. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The supply side has increased global shipments compared to the previous period and is stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals have declined from a high level, and port inventories are stable with no obvious short - term inventory accumulation pressure. The demand side has high iron - water production in the short term as steel mills have high profit ratios and low motivation for active production cuts. The market sentiment is improved by macro - level factors, but the current price is high, and there is a risk of increased price fluctuations [3] Coke - The price is volatile during the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, and coking profits are meager. Coking daily production has increased slightly after a continuous decline. Overall inventory has decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness has increased. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - water level remains high in the off - season. The "anti - involution" has limited impact, and the futures price is at a premium, with a possible short - term upward trend [4] Coking Coal - The price hit the daily limit at the end of the day. Affected by policy documents, the futures price has risen significantly. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction market has improved, and the transaction price has continued to rise. The terminal inventory has increased, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month. The production - end inventory has continued to decline significantly, and inventory reduction is likely to continue in the short term. The "anti - involution" impact is gradually emerging, and the futures price is at a premium, with a possible short - term upward trend [6] Silicon Manganese - The price has declined during the day. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, and the weekly production recovery rate is slow. The spot manganese ore price has risen following the futures price. Affected by "anti - involution", the market has increased expectations for demand - side policies, and the price follows the rebar trend with a relatively small increase [7] Silicon Iron - The price has declined during the day. Iron - water production has risen above 242. Export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand has decreased marginally. Overall demand is acceptable. Supply has increased slightly, market transactions are average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has declined. Affected by "anti - involution", the price follows the rebar trend but has relatively weak upward momentum [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caipo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - In the agricultural product market, different varieties have different market trends and influencing factors. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance. For some products, the market is in a state of shock or waiting for the situation to become clear, while for others, specific investment ideas are proposed [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Douyi) - Domestic soybeans showed a trend of rising first and then falling today, but the price is still in a rebound state. A two - way auction will be held this Friday with a reserve price of 4,200 yuan/ton and a planned auction volume of 39,000 tons. Spot prices are relatively stable. In the next week, there will be more showers in Northeast China and northern North China, with cumulative precipitation 40% - 80% higher than the same period of the year, which is beneficial for soil moisture increase but may cause short - term waterlogging risks. For imported soybeans, the weather risk in the US soybean producing areas in the next 6 - 10 days is relatively low [2] Soybean & Doupo - The US Treasury Secretary said that China and the US will meet in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday and Tuesday to discuss key issues such as the extension of the tariff "truce". As of the week ending July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, slightly lower than the previous week. In the next two weeks, there will be slightly less rainfall in the US soybean producing areas, and high - temperature weather is expected in the central and southeastern regions, bringing some uncertainties to the new - season US soybeans. Before the tariff and weather issues are clear, the Doupo market should be treated as a shock market [2] Douyou & Palm Oil - Today, the domestic palm oil main contract strengthened again, with a slight increase in positions and a price increase. The Douyou main contract mainly reduced positions, and the price fluctuated. Indonesia's GAPKI data showed a decline in the ending inventory in May due to increased export demand and decreased production. Although Malaysia's MPOA data showed a production increase, palm oil still performed strongly. Considering the long - term development trends of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's entry into the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips for Douyou and palm oil is maintained [3] Caipo & Caiyou - The Caixin market continued the pattern of strong Caipo and weak Caiyou, with a slight decline in positions. The weather in the Canadian rapeseed producing areas has improved, putting pressure on the rapeseed futures price. The supply side depends on the weather in July and August, with a relatively low probability of extreme risks. The rapeseed inventory of domestic coastal oil mills is still at a low level, and rapeseed imports are still cautious. The demand for Caipo has slightly improved, while Caiyou is in the off - season, and its inventory is still high, which may intensify the downward trend of the oil - meal ratio. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5] Corn - Recently, the auction of imported corn by Sinograin had a low transaction rate. As of the week ending July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, and the corn continued to grow well. The domestic corn market currently has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly [6] Live Pigs - Affected by the news of a symposium held by the Ministry of Agriculture for 18 leading pig enterprises, the live pig futures market rose sharply today, with an increase of 20,000 lots in positions, and multiple far - month contracts hit the daily limit. The driving force for the rise comes from policy expectations. The spot market is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the potential supply of the live pig market is sufficient. Attention should be paid to policy guidance [7] Eggs - The peak - season contracts of egg futures rose slightly, the off - season contracts were relatively weak, and the far - month contracts for next year were strong. Spot prices generally increased today. The egg spot price has entered the seasonal rebound stage, but attention should be paid to the pressure of cold - storage eggs leaving the warehouse. The price of small eggs is weak, and the pressure of newly - hatched chickens is increasing. The peak - season contracts still have support below, the off - season contracts are expected to be relatively weak, and the far - month contracts are expected to rise after capacity reduction. In the long - term, the egg price cycle has not bottomed out [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Adjusted from bullish to neutral and oscillatory [1] - Precious metals: Wide - range oscillation, not advisable to chase the uptrend [2] - Copper: Resistance at the upper integer level, cautious trading [3] - Aluminum: Short - term high - level oscillation, resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - Cast aluminum alloy: More support compared to aluminum prices [5] - Alumina: High - level operation, beware of correction risks [6] - Zinc: Temporary wait - and - see, inclined to short above 23,000 [7] - Tin: Hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [9] - Polysilicon: Temporary wait - and - see [10] - Industrial silicon: Expected to oscillate upward [11] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The futures market is expected to remain strong [12] - Iron ore: Short - term upward trend, but note increased volatility [13] - Coke: Likely to maintain the uptrend in the short term [14] - Coking coal: Likely to maintain the uptrend in the short term [15] - Manganese silicon: Follow the rebar trend, with a relatively small increase [16] - Ferrosilicon: Follow the rebar trend, with relatively weak increase [17] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Short - term wide - range oscillation [18] - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil: FU is resistant to decline, LU follows crude oil [19] - Asphalt: BU cracking margin is expected to be supported [20] - Liquefied petroleum gas: The futures market runs weakly [21] - Urea: Expected to oscillate upward in the short term [22] - Methanol: The sustainability of the increase remains to be seen [23] - Pure benzene: Monthly spread band - trading, long in the short - to - medium term, short in the fourth quarter [24] - Styrene: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to change in the short term [25] - Polypropylene and plastic: Market sentiment improves, but fundamentals remain weak [25] - PVC and caustic soda: PVC follows the overall sentiment in the short term, caustic soda is affected by macro factors [26] - PX and PTA: Wait for downstream demand to recover [27] - Ethylene glycol: Short - term long - position allocation, beware of pressure at previous highs [28] - Short - fiber and bottle - grade chips: Consider long - position allocation for short - fiber in the medium term [29] - Glass: Follow macro sentiment in the short term, pay attention to capacity reduction in the long term [30] - 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber: Adopt a rebound strategy [31] - Soda ash: Follow macro sentiment in the short term, pay attention to capacity elimination [32] - Soybean and soybean meal: Oscillate before tariff and weather issues are clear [33] - Soybean oil and palm oil: Long - position allocation on dips [34] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: Short - term wait - and - see [35] - Soybean No.1: Follow weather and policy guidance in the short term [36] - Corn: Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate at the bottom [37] - Live pigs: Follow policy guidance, far - month contracts are stronger [38] - Eggs: Seasonal rebound, pay attention to cold - storage egg release [39] - Cotton: Temporary wait - and - see or intraday trading [40] - Sugar: Expected to oscillate [41] - Apples: Temporary wait - and - see [42] - Wood: Temporary wait - and - see [43] - Pulp: Temporary wait - and - see or light long - position on dips [44] - Stock index: Risk preference is expected to be oscillatory and bullish, increase allocation to technology growth [45] - Treasury bonds: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with an increased probability of a steeper yield curve [46] Core Views - The international oil price is affected by factors such as tariffs and geopolitics, showing a trend of first pressure and then potential support [1] - Precious metals are affected by macro - sentiment and policy uncertainty, showing wide - range oscillations [2] - Base metals are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand, and inventory, with different trends [3][4][7] - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international sanctions, with diverse price trends [19][20][21] - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand, with different investment strategies [33][34][35] - Financial products are affected by factors such as economic data, policies, and trade agreements, showing different trends [45][46] Summary by Categories Energy - Crude oil: Overnight international oil prices declined, and the market rating was adjusted to neutral and oscillatory. The impact of tariffs and geopolitics on oil prices is significant [1] - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil: The fuel oil system futures are under pressure, but FU is resistant to decline, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to shrink [19] - Asphalt: The August refinery production plan decreased, and the low - inventory pattern supports the BU cracking margin [20] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Overseas markets are weak, and the domestic market is expected to stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand [21] Metals - Precious metals: Overnight precious metals rose, and they are expected to oscillate widely due to policy uncertainty [2] - Base metals: - Copper: Overnight copper prices rose, and the market is waiting for the US tariff decision [3] - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level, and the cost provides support, but the inventory increase restricts the upward space [4][8] - Zinc: The supply pressure increases, and the short - term support is followed by the risk of a decline [7] - Tin: The price approaches the resistance area, and short positions in far - month contracts are recommended [9] - Alumina: It is at a high level, and the risk of a correction after a sharp increase needs attention [6] - Cast aluminum alloy: It is relatively strong compared to aluminum prices, and the supply shortage provides support [5] Chemicals - Polysilicon: The futures price hits the daily limit, and the cost transfer needs to be focused on [10] - Industrial silicon: Driven by polysilicon, it is expected to oscillate upward [11] - Methanol: Affected by coal production inspections, the sustainability of the increase remains to be seen [23] - Pure benzene: The spot price lags behind, and the monthly spread trading strategy is recommended [24] - Styrene: The supply and demand both increase slightly, and the inventory continues to accumulate [25] - Polypropylene and plastic: The market sentiment improves, but the fundamentals remain weak [25] - PVC and caustic soda: PVC is affected by capacity elimination and upstream news, and caustic soda is affected by macro factors [26] - PX and PTA: The price is under pressure, and the recovery of downstream demand is awaited [27] - Ethylene glycol: It is temporarily strong, but the supply increase may weaken the upward momentum [28] - Short - fiber and bottle - grade chips: Short - fiber may be long - position allocated in the medium term [29] Building Materials - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The steel price oscillates, and the market sentiment is optimistic due to policies [12] - Iron ore: The supply increases, and the demand is stable. The short - term trend is upward [13] - Coke: The price continues to rise, and the inventory decreases slightly [14] - Coking coal: The price hits the daily limit, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [15] - Manganese silicon: The inventory decreases, and it follows the rebar trend [16] - Ferrosilicon: The demand is acceptable, and it follows the rebar trend with a weak increase [17] - Glass: Driven by macro - sentiment, the price rises, and the long - term focus is on capacity reduction [30] Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal: The US soybean good - quality rate declines slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate before the tariff and weather issues are clear [33] - Soybean oil and palm oil: The price oscillates, and long - position allocation on dips is recommended [34] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: The price of Canadian rapeseed declines, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [35] - Soybean No.1: It rebounds strongly, and the short - term focus is on weather and policies [36] - Corn: The US corn grows well, and the Dalian corn futures may oscillate at the bottom [37] - Live pigs: The futures market is strong, and the focus is on policy implementation [38] - Eggs: The price enters the seasonal rebound stage, and the cold - storage egg release needs attention [39] - Cotton: The price rises slightly, and temporary wait - and - see or intraday trading is recommended [40] - Sugar: The price is expected to oscillate due to factors such as production and trade [41] - Apples: The price of new - season early - maturing apples increases, and temporary wait - and - see is recommended [42] - Wood: The price oscillates, and the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [43] - Pulp: The price rises, and temporary wait - and - see or light long - position on dips is recommended [44] Financial Products - Stock index: The A - share market rises, and the risk preference is expected to remain strong. Increase allocation to technology growth [45] - Treasury bonds: The price declines, and the short - term oscillation is expected, with a steeper yield curve [46]

Group 1: Agricultural Crop Growth Rates - Key Point 1: The report presents data on the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, silking, and wax - ripening rates of soybeans and corn, comparing them with 5 - year averages and last year's figures [1] - Key Point 2: Crop growth rate data for soybeans is shown from April 4 to July 18, including sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, and pod - setting rate [1] - Key Point 3: Corn growth rate data is presented from April 4 to July 18, covering sowing rate, emergence rate, silking rate, and wax - ripening rate [1] - Key Point 4: The report also provides historical data on a certain index (not clearly specified) from 2021 to 2025 [1]

安如泰山 信守承诺 丙烯期货上市迎来开门红 化工新品种 7月22日丙烯期货在郑州商品交易所上市交易，首批上市交易的丙烯期货合约为PL2601、PL2602、PL2603、 PL2604、PL2605、PL2606、PL2607。 丙烯期货首日交易情况 两烯期货首日挂牌价6350元/吨,主力PL06合约开盘6550元/吨,较挂牌价高开200点,最高价6708，最低价 6501,收于6613,涨幅4.14%,首日迎来开门红。目内主力PL06合约成交量43897手,持仓量7983手,交投较为活 跃。 资料来源:iFind,国投期货 两烯期货行情研判 能够实现首日大幅度上行收涨,主要是受到石化行业"老旧装置"重新定义这一消息的影响,这一消息引 发了市场又一轮"供给侧改革"的预期，激发了市场交投情绪的高涨。 当前我国丙烯产能在7627万吨/年,20年以上（包含20年）的装置产能在1118万吨/年,占丙烯全部产能的比 例为14.66%。丙烯作为重要的化工原料，发展历程比较久远，老旧装置也相对较多。并且，这几年随着丙烯新 建装置快运扩张，行业盈利下滑明显,呈现了结构性过剩的状态,行业产能优化成为必然的趋势。鉴于丙烯行 业老 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand contradiction in the steel spot market is not significant. Demand shows some resilience despite being weak, and low inventory eases supply pressure. The cost increase drives up the steel price center, and low inventory also increases price elasticity. The steel price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and a bullish trading strategy is recommended, while paying attention to demand changes and supply - side policy implementation [27]. - In the coke market, there is a potential for four rounds of price increases, and additional increases depend on the situation of coking coal. In the coking coal market, the low - point of valuation within the year has been reached, and the future situation depends on the implementation of coal over - production policies and the impact of imported coal [56][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Demand and Inventory - **Rebar**: Affected by hot and rainy weather, rebar demand is weak, and the apparent demand has declined month - on - month. However, the demand is expected to improve month - on - month after August. Production remains at a relatively low level, inventory depletion has slowed down, and the absolute inventory value is still low, which supports the price [6]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Demand remains stable with some resilience. Production has declined from its high, and the inventory is also at a low level [9]. Iron Water Production - Steel mills are profitable, and with low overall inventory, the motivation for blast furnace production cuts is insufficient. Iron water production remains high, strongly supporting the demand for furnace materials. During the off - season, the negative feedback pressure in the market is small, and as the cost rises significantly, the steel price center gradually moves up. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [11]. Industry Conditions - **Construction industry**: From January to June, real estate investment, sales area, and new construction area decreased by 11.2%, 3.5%, and 20.0% year - on - year respectively, remaining weak. Policy stimulus needs to be strengthened. Infrastructure investment continues to play a supporting role, but its growth rate has declined [17]. - **Manufacturing industry**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, rising for two consecutive months but still below 50. With the PPI in the negative range for nearly 3 years, the "anti - involution" expectation has increased significantly. Recently, the prices of major industrial products have rebounded, which may stimulate restocking demand, but the actual performance remains to be seen [21]. Export - From January to June, China's cumulative steel exports reached 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, exports were 9.678 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%. Although exports face some pressure to decline due to tariff policies, the overall level will remain high due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the continued overseas demand [24]. Coke Market Market Contradiction - Currently, iron water production remains at an inverse - seasonal high and is expected to be sustainable. Since June, the cost of coking coal has soared, leading to a significant deterioration in coking plant profits, which are significantly lower than steel - making profits. As a result, there is a temporary shortage of coke supply [49]. Trade and Inventory - Even after two rounds of price increases, the current coke futures price shows a significant premium, which will stimulate trade demand. Port coke inventory has been decreasing, and there is potential for restocking. The continuous reduction of visible coke inventory provides motivation for price increases [51][54]. Market Outlook - Overall, the spot price of coke has increased for the second round. Considering the high - level and resilient iron water production and the poor profitability of coking enterprises, as well as the potential for restocking after the significant reduction of carbon element inventory, there is room for coke prices to continue to rise following the cost of coking coal. It is expected that there will be four rounds of price increases, and additional increases depend on the situation of coking coal [56]. Coking Coal Market Supply - Since July, some previously shut - down coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, but overall production recovery is slow due to heavy rain and mine face changes. In Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, production recovery is limited due to environmental inspections, but it is expected to gradually increase as coal prices rebound. The suspension of Mongolian coal customs clearance during the Nadam Fair has led to a significant decline in port inventory, but the daily vehicle traffic at the Ganqimaodu port has returned to over a thousand, and imports are expected to increase [60][63]. Price and Market Outlook - The price of Mongolian coal has risen in resonance with the futures market. The narrowing price difference between domestic and foreign coal restricts the further rise of coking coal prices. The power coal price is under pressure as daily consumption peaks. Overall, the low - point of coking coal valuation within the year has been reached, and the future situation depends on the implementation of coal over - production policies and the impact of imported coal [62][65][69]. Ferroalloy Market Supply - After the price rebound, ferroalloy production has gradually increased, but at a relatively slow rate, indicating a rational production side. Attention should be paid to whether the supply will expand rapidly to an oversupply situation if the futures price continues to rise [78].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **One Star (Bullish with Limited Operability)**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Live Hogs [1] - **Two Stars (Clear Bullish/Bearish Trend and Market Fermentation)**: None - **Three Stars (Clearer Bullish/Bearish Trend and Investment Opportunities)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Eggs [1] - **White Star (Balanced Trend and Poor Operability, Observe)**: None Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, policy, trade relations, and supply - demand. In the face of uncertainties in tariff and weather issues, the market trends of different agricultural products vary, and continuous attention to relevant factors is required [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans show a volatile and slightly strong rebound. Spot prices are relatively stable, and today's tender procurement had zero transactions. In the next week, there will be more showers in Northeast China and northern North China, which is beneficial for soil moisture but may cause short - term waterlogging. For imported soybeans, in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas, higher - than - normal temperature and precipitation can ease the high - temperature risk. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of the week ending July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than normal, and there will be high - temperature days in the central and southeastern regions. The suspension of Sino - US tariffs is about to end, and China's soybean procurement decision is a market focus. Domestically, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the soybean meal inventory is increasing. Before the tariff and weather issues are clear, the soybean meal market will be volatile [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contracts of domestic palm oil and soybean oil show position reduction and price adjustment. Currently, major domestic industrial products are rising strongly, but palm oil does not follow. The palm oil futures main contract price is near the previous high, with position reduction. In the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas, high temperature and precipitation can ease the high - temperature risk. Short - term data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased and exports decreased in July 1 - 20. Due to the long - term development of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's fourth - quarter production reduction cycle, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, rapeseed meal is strong and rapeseed oil is weak. The stagnant rise and decline of overseas oilseeds and oils are mainly reflected in the oil market. The peak season of aquatic feed demand is coming, and the consumption of East China granular meal has improved. Coastal oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory is low, supporting the short - term rapeseed meal price. The uncertainty of rapeseed imports remains, and there are variables in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The short - term strategy for rapeseed products is to observe, focusing on weather and trade negotiations [6] Corn - Today, Sinograin held an imported corn sales auction with 198,558 tons, and the transaction rate was 27%. As of the week ending July 20, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 74%, in line with expectations. The US corn is growing well. Currently, the domestic corn market has few contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures market continues the upward trend of the January contract leading the rise. The far - month contracts are stronger than the near - month ones. The rise is driven by policy expectations. The spot market is weak. The long - term supply indicators show sufficient potential supply. Attention should be paid to policy guidance [8] Eggs - Egg futures increased positions and slightly declined today. Spot prices are stable in some areas and rising in others. The spot price is in the seasonal rebound stage, but attention should be paid to the pressure of cold - storage egg release. The off - season contracts are affected by insufficient old - hen culling and high production capacity. In the long - term, the egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is optimistic due to the "anti-involution" trend and the rectification of overproducing coal mines, and the industrial products at low levels continue to rise sharply. The market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to policy changes on both supply and demand sides [2]. - The market expectations have improved due to the "anti-involution" and the upcoming important meeting, and the market sentiment has been further strengthened. It is expected that the short-term trend of iron ore will be strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased market volatility [3]. - The coke and coking coal prices have risen sharply, and although the carbon element supply is still abundant, the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The impact of "anti-involution" on these industries is currently limited, and attention should be paid to whether the policies are further implemented. The futures prices are at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [4][6]. - The prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have risen. The inventory of silicon manganese is expected to continue to decline, and the price of manganese ore is under pressure in the long term. The demand for ferrosilicon is generally good, and both follow the trend of thread steel, with relatively small increases [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The demand for thread steel is weak during the off-season, production continues to decline, and inventory accumulates slightly at a low level. The demand for hot-rolled coil remains resilient, production continues to decline, and inventory drops slightly. Molten iron production has increased and remains at a high level. The negative feedback pressure on the market is small under the low-inventory pattern. Domestic demand is still weak, while exports remain relatively high. The market is expected to remain strong [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have increased month-on-month and are stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has declined from a high level, and port inventory has increased slightly with no obvious short-term inventory accumulation pressure. On the demand side, it is the off-season for the terminal, the proportion of profitable steel mills is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the motivation for active production cuts is insufficient. The molten iron production unexpectedly rebounded last week. The short-term trend is expected to be strong [3]. Coke - The price limit up within the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, the coking profit is meager, and the daily coking production has increased slightly after a continuous decline. The overall coke inventory has decreased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders has increased. The carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The futures price is at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - The price limit up within the day. Affected by policy documents, the futures price has risen significantly. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction market has improved, the transaction price has continued to rise, and the terminal inventory has increased. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the production-side inventory has continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue to reduce inventory in the short term. The carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The futures price is at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuated upward within the day. Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level has decreased, the weekly production recovery rate is slow, and both futures and spot demand have improved. It is judged that the inventory will mainly continue to decline. In the long term, the manganese ore inventory is gradually increasing, which exerts great pressure on the price. In the short term, the current inventory level is low, the price support intention of manganese mines has increased, and the spot manganese ore price has risen following the futures price [7]. Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated upward within the day. The molten iron production has increased and returned above 242. The export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand has slightly declined marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon has increased slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance inventory has declined fluctuatingly [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Paper pulp: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] Core Views - For different soft commodities, the market conditions vary. Some are affected by supply - demand relationships, weather, and policies. The overall suggestions are mainly to wait and see, with some opportunities for short - term operations or low - position buying [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today due to the strong overall commodity market and domestic anti - involution policies. The 9 - 1 spread declined. The cotton inventory depletion slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. Downstream procurement is still cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new year. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading and strong prices. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar retreated. In Brazil, heavy rainfall in the second half of June affected the sugarcane harvest, with a year - on - year decrease in the sugarcane crushing volume. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. The overall harvest progress is slow, resulting in large year - on - year decreases in sugarcane crushing and sugar production. In July, rainfall in the main producing areas decreased. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons, and 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, due to the fast sales pace, inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The US sugar trend is downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. New - season early - maturing apples began to be listed, and cold - storage merchants were more active in shipping, causing the price of cold - storage apples to weaken. There are many seasonal fruits with low prices, and the hot weather has led to low apple demand. However, the remaining inventory is not large. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on production is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR all rose. The futures market sentiment was optimistic, and the domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubbers continued to rise. The Asian price of the butadiene tower outlet was stable, while the European price was stable with a slight decline. The price in the Thai raw material market continued to rise. Globally, the natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period. Typhoon "Weipa" entered northern Vietnam, bringing heavy rainfall to some areas in Southeast Asia. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. Jinzhou Petrochemical, Heze Kexin, and Yanshan Petrochemical restarted, and Yihua Rubber and Plastics plans to restart this week. Dushanzi Petrochemical reduced its load, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to rise significantly. Enterprises that had stopped production for maintenance have fully resumed normal production, and the inventory of tire finished products has increased. In terms of inventory, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 634,600 tons this week, with both bonded and general trade inventories decreasing. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 126,000 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene decreased significantly to 20,000 tons. Overall, downstream demand has improved, rubber supply has increased, rubber inventory has decreased, market sentiment is positive, and there are potential policy benefits. The strategy is to expect a rebound [6] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was stable at 5,900 yuan/ton, the price of Russian softwood pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was stable at 4,100 yuan/ton. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.181 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, China's pulp imports were still relatively high year - on - year, with an import volume of 3.031 million tons in June and a cumulative import volume of 18.578 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, the pulp demand is still weak, and downstream buyers tend to bargain. The demand is in the traditional off - season. The pulp valuation is low. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. Last week, the average daily outbound volume at ports rebounded to 60,000 cubic meters. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall destocking is good. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 cubic meters, with the radiation - pine inventory at 2.64 million cubic meters. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, providing some bullish factors on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and there is insufficient momentum for price rebounds. It is recommended to wait and see [8]