Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is overall strong with cost support, but domestic demand is weak and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Iron ore follows the strong trend of the black - series, but the price is high and there is a risk of increased volatility [2]. - Coke and coking coal may maintain an upward trend in the short - term, and the impact of "anti - involution" needs policy attention [3][5]. - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon follow the thread trend, with relatively small price increases [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market strengthened today. Thread demand recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production dropped, and inventory increased slightly. High iron - water production and low inventory support steel prices. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are at a relatively high level. The market is optimistic, and the short - term trend is dominated by "anti - involution" [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated. Global shipments are slightly stronger than last year, and domestic arrivals have declined from high levels. Port inventories are stable. In the demand side, the terminal is in the off - season, but steel mills have profits and high iron - water production supports high - level ore handling. The market sentiment has improved, but the price is high [2]. Coke - The coke price rose and then fell. The third round of price increases by coking plants is underway. Coking profits are meager, and daily production has slightly increased. Overall inventory has decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness has increased. The carbon supply is abundant, and the short - term trend is upward [3]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price hit the daily limit. Affected by policy documents, the price has risen significantly. Coal production has decreased slightly, the spot auction market has improved, and terminal inventory has increased. Total inventory has decreased, and short - term destocking is likely to continue. The short - term trend is upward [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price rose and then fell. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, and weekly production recovery is slow. Manganese ore inventory is increasing, which suppresses prices. In the short - term, the inventory is low, and the price is rising slightly following the thread [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fell at the end of the session. Iron - water production has increased, export demand is stable, and secondary demand has declined marginally. Supply has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased. It follows the thread trend with relatively weak price increases [7].

(棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，仍在高位震荡，商品整体偏强。7月上半月棉花库存去化速度有所放缓,截至7月15号，棉花商业库存为 254.24万吨，环比6月减少28.74万吨。国内6月份棉花进口延续偏低的趋势，2025年6月进口3万吨，再创近20年新低，同比降 12.53万吨，环比降0.45万吨；2025年1-6月累计进口46万吨，同比降74.3%，同比降133万吨。下游对于棉花采购仍然谨慎，国 内新年度增产预期较强。统棉纱市场交投一般，价格偏强。宏观上，中美即将在瑞典进行经贸会谈，市场预期偏乐观。操作上 暂时观望或日内操作为主。 | | | | 11/11/2/1 | 操作评级 | 2025年07月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Natural Gas: Changes in the Market Landscape after the LNG Production Tide" [1] - Industry: Natural Gas 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The global LNG market has experienced limited growth in recent years due to project delays and maintenance, but a significant increase in production capacity is expected from 2025 - 2027, which could push prices back to pre - 2022 levels [2][4] - The United States will become the world's largest LNG exporter, but its gas market may face a "long - term bullish, short - term bearish" situation [11][12] - The expansion of LNG supply will suppress gas prices below oil prices in the long run, and the characteristics of the LNG market under long - term contracts will change [18] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global LNG Market Situation - In 2024, global LNG export volume was 544.1 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.45% due to project delays and increased maintenance. Since 2016, the global LNG trade has entered a rapid growth phase, and in 2022, LNG trade volume exceeded PNG trade volume [2] - Global LNG production capacity increased slightly from 631.7 billion cubic meters per year in 2022 to 651.9 billion cubic meters per year in 2024. The Russian Arctic LNG project was affected by sanctions and only showed signs of slow recovery in May 2025 [2] - From 2025, new LNG production capacity will be concentrated in major exporting countries. By the end of 2027, global LNG production capacity will reach 863.6 billion cubic meters per year, an increase of about 230 billion cubic meters per year compared to 2023 [4][5] Production Capacity Changes of Major Exporting Countries - **United States**: It will become the world's largest LNG exporter. By 2029, its LNG export capacity will increase from 11.44 bcf/d in 2023 to 21.89 bcf/d, contributing nearly 106 billion cubic meters per year of export growth [11] - **Qatar**: After the expansion of the North Field in 2026, its production capacity will increase, and the proportion of spot goods may increase significantly after 2026 [5][19] - **Australia**: Its investment is relatively cautious, with limited production capacity expansion in the next three years, and its production capacity proportion will decline from 18.0% to 14.2% [5] - **Canada**: It will become a new LNG exporter, with a new production capacity of 22 billion cubic meters per year in three years, which can reduce the shipping time to Asia and ease market panic [6] - **Russia**: The Arctic LNG project is affected by sanctions, and the possibility of normal export is uncertain. The implementation of the EU's ban on Russian gas may affect the Yamal project [6] United States Natural Gas Market - In 2025, the inventory of US natural gas is higher than the five - year average. Although exports are expected to increase in the second half of the year, supply remains high, and inventory is expected to return below the five - year average in December 2025 [12] - The US natural gas market may face a "long - term bullish, short - term bearish" situation, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to demand adjustment [12] Impact on the LNG Market under Long - Term Contracts - The rapid expansion of LNG supply will suppress gas prices below oil prices in the long run, increasing the motivation for reselling long - term contract goods [18] - The proportion of long - term contracts in the United States is relatively stable, while Qatar may increase the proportion of spot goods after expansion. The contract types of the two countries are different, and the influence of US goods on TTF and JKM prices may increase [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the analysis implies a cautious outlook [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicates a relatively clear bearish trend with investment opportunities [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated in terms of stars, but the analysis shows a lack of clear drivers [3] - Asphalt: Not explicitly stated, but low - inventory support and limited upside are mentioned [4] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆, represents a slightly bearish bias with limited trading operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market in the third - quarter peak season continued the inventory - building trend from the first half of the year, with crude oil inventory decreasing by 0.6% and refined oil inventory increasing by 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure persists under OPEC+ production increase. Oil prices are under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2] - The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia has reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, causing the FU to weaken. The LU follows crude oil with less volatility and under pressure [3] - The asphalt market opened weakly, with low inventory providing support but limited upside before real demand improvement [4] - The overseas LPG market decline has affected the domestic market. Although domestic chemical demand is strong in the short term, the market is mainly weak due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and weakened crude oil support [5] Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - In the third - quarter peak season, the oil market continued the inventory trend, with crude oil inventory down 0.6% and refined oil up 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure exists under OPEC+ production increase [2] - In July, the crude oil market entered a shock - repair period. The factors supporting the market have weakened, and the recent negative risks are greater than the geopolitical positive ones. Oil prices are under pressure, but may be supported by geopolitical factors at the end of August and early September [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU closed slightly up, while FU was relatively flat. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, causing FU to weaken and its cracking spread to decline [3] - The Singapore diesel cracking spread has slightly declined from its high. The LU has no obvious fundamental drivers, follows crude oil, and has less volatility and cracking pressure [3] Asphalt - The asphalt market opened weakly, was supported around 3590 yuan/ton, and recovered some losses at the close [4] - The refinery production in August decreased significantly compared to July. The demand recovery was delayed due to rainfall. The inventory of 54 sample refineries decreased, and the overall commercial inventory declined. Low inventory supports the price, but the upside is limited [4] LPG - The overseas market decline has led to a weakening of the domestic market. Middle - East sales increase and North - American inventory build - up are suppressing the market. There is a possibility of further CP reduction at the end of the month [5] - Domestic PDH has quickly resumed production, with good short - term chemical demand. The refinery supply has slightly decreased. The domestic gas may stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market is loose, and the futures market is mainly weak [5]

Group 1: China's Platinum Group Resources Pattern 1.1 China's Platinum Group Resources are Extremely Scarce and Concentrated - In 2022, China's platinum group metal reserves were 80.9 tons, and the resource reserves have been continuously declining [1]. - China's platinum group metals are mainly distributed in Gansu, Yunnan, Hebei, Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai, with Gansu having the largest reserves of 56.3 tons, accounting for nearly 70% of the country's total [1]. - Over 80% of China's platinum and palladium ore production comes from the sulfide copper - nickel ore in Jinchuan, Gansu [1]. 1.2 China's High Dependence on Imports of Platinum Group Resources - China's platinum and palladium metal reserves are less than 0.1% of the global total, and the platinum group metal ore production is extremely low. In 2024, China produced and sold 4.9 tons of platinum and palladium metals [5]. - The import dependence on platinum and palladium resources is high. In 2024, China imported 104.1 tons of platinum under 3 tax numbers, with 83% being unforged platinum and platinum powder, and 79% through general trade [5][8]. - In 2024, China imported 28.1 tons of palladium under 3 tax numbers, with 94% being unforged palladium. The main trade methods were customs - special - regulated area logistics goods (57%) and general trade (33%) [12]. - The recycling of platinum group metals is important, but in 2023, the recycling volume declined significantly due to policy issues. In 2024, the recycling volume increased, with 11.6 tons of platinum and 20.8 tons of palladium recycled, for a total of 32.4 tons [5]. 1.3 China's Demand for Platinum Group Metals - In 2024, China consumed 64.4 tons of platinum, a year - on - year decline of 3.1%. In the automotive catalyst field, platinum consumption was 16.5 tons, a year - on - year decline of 13.6%. In the industrial field, 29.2 tons of platinum were used, a year - on - year decline of 0.7%. The glass industry became the largest end - use field for platinum in China in 2024 [17]. - In 2023, China's actual demand for palladium was 68.9 tons, a year - on - year decline of 19.4%. In 2024, palladium consumption in the automotive catalyst field decreased by 21.98% to 57.5 tons. Electronic field palladium consumption decreased slightly by 1.2% to 8.5 tons, and chemical field palladium consumption declined by 15.6% to 2.7 tons [23]. Group 2: Global Palladium Production and Recycling Forecast - In 2024, the global palladium production increased by 0.7 tons year - on - year to 25.6 tons, with a recycling ratio of 28.5%. The global palladium ore production increased by 0.6% year - on - year to 183.4 tons in 2024, and is expected to decline by 5% year - on - year to 174.8 tons in 2025 [2]. - In 2024, the palladium recycling volume decreased by only 0.6% year - on - year to 73.1 tons. In 2025, Heraeus expects the annual palladium recycling volume to increase by 5% year - on - year to 76.7 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - PX: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Upward drive but limited operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] Core Views - The chemical market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - emotions. Different chemical products show different price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply pressure in Shandong increased, and prices were weakly sorted. Polyolefin futures rose. PE had improved market sentiment but weak demand and abundant supply. PP prices rose as low - price resources were sold out, and short - term demand was affected by the off - season [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rebounded with improved commodity sentiment. There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. Styrene futures continued to consolidate horizontally. Macro - support was still there but weakened, and spot transactions were poor [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose driven by external sentiment. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and the pressure on upstream raw materials was expected to weaken. Ethylene glycol prices rose, with weak downstream demand and supply recovery. Short fiber prices may be boosted by future demand, and bottle chip had limited profit - repair drivers [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to policy support. Port inventory decreased unexpectedly, and production enterprise inventory decreased slightly. Urea futures were firm. Domestic demand was weak, but exports were advancing, and the short - term trend was expected to be strong [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was strongly running due to anti - involution policies, but demand was weak and supply increased. Caustic soda was also strong. Upstream policies may affect raw material prices, and downstream resistance was high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was strongly running due to anti - involution policies and rising prices. Inventory decreased, and supply was high. Glass touched the daily limit, with continued price increases and inventory reduction. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash can be considered [8]

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 能 | ☆☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | な女女 | | | 多晶硅 | ななな | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜震荡收阳,尾盘短线交投情绪波动大。与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整 数关有阻力。隔夜美盘铜价创高,美 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月24日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价震荡，布伦特09合约收平。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降316.9万桶，成品油方面 汽油库存下降、馏分燃料油库存增加。美日贸易协议达成，美国对日本对等关税比例自初始版本的 25%下调至15%，但美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍有不确定性,相关利空风险短期大于俄乌、 伊核相应的地缘风险，油价或转为承压震荡为主；随着8月底、9月初伊核、俄乌谈判最终期限的临 近,8月地缘博弈或再次加剧,届时原油市场有望再度获得支撑。 【贵金属】 隔夜黄金回落，白银相对平稳。消息称欧美接近达成贸易协议，欧盟官员称基准关税为15%，美方尚 未予以确认。特朗普称将对大部分国家征收15%至50%的简单关税。美国关税政策截止日前市场不确 定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降，贵金属宽幅震荡为主，高位不宜追涨。 【铜】 隔夜铜价高位震荡，美盘铜价创高，美伦价差走扩至3000美元以上，但LME0-3月贴水52美元。美国 对亲密盟友关税在15%附近,对次围国家在19%附近。近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关 阻力强。 (铝) 隔夜 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively neutral short - term trend with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a somewhat bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals prices rose. Powell's speech did not mention monetary policy, and the conflict between the White House and the Fed has drawn attention to the Fed's independence. Recently, the macro - sentiment has been positive, with commodities rising in rotation, and precious metals have followed this trend. There is still room for the gold - silver ratio to decline. Due to high market uncertainty before the deadline of US tariff policies, risk sentiment is volatile, and precious metals are likely to fluctuate widely, so chasing the market is not advisable [1] Summary by Related Topics Tariff Policies - The US Treasury Secretary stated that August 1st is a "relatively firm deadline" for all countries. EU trade negotiations are separate from Russia - Ukraine sanctions negotiations, and Japan's negotiations are progressing smoothly. Canada's Ontario Province is still considering an electricity export tax. South Korea is considering making painful concessions to avoid full - scale US tariffs. Trump reached a trade agreement with the Philippines, imposing a 19% tariff on the Philippines, while the Philippines will open its market to the US with zero tariffs. The US announced details of a trade agreement with Indonesia. The Canadian Prime Minister said that a favorable agreement for Canada with the US is "not on the table" [2] Fed and Monetary Policy - The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates and said there is no sign for Powell to resign, but if he wants to leave early, he can. White House officials plan to visit the Fed headquarters on Thursday. Trump believes Powell will soon leave and that interest rates should be cut by 3 percentage points or more. A fake Powell resignation letter circulated on social media. Fed Governor Bowman emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in monetary policy and its responsibility for transparency and accountability [2]

| Milli | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月24日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属上涨。鲍威尔发表简短讲话未提及货币政策，白宫和美联储的对抗令美联储独立性问题继续受到 关注。近期宏观情绪积极,商品亢奋轮动上涨,贵金属跟随,金银比仍有向下空间。美国关税政策截止日前 市场不确定性仍强,风险情绪易反复,贵金属宽幅震荡为主,不宜追涨。 ★关税 -- 1美国财长贝森特:8月1日对所有国家来说都是一个"较为硬性的最后期限"。欧盟贸易谈判与 俄乌制裁谈判分开进行。日本的谈判进展非常顺利。②加拿大安大略省省长：电力出口税仍在考虑之中。③ 韩国考虑做出痛苦让步,以避免被美国全面征收关税。④特朗普:与菲律宾达成贸易协议,将对菲律宾征收 19%的关 ...