| 国投期货 SDIC FUTURES | | --- | | MILLE | | | SDIC FUTURES 操作评级 | 2025年04月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ななな | | | 木材 | 女女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ななな | F0285606 Z0003096 | | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载清注明出处 1 教商品日报 【20号胶&天然橡胶&合成橡胶】 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑棉有所下跌,即将迎来五一惊期,商品持仓以减仓为主;国产棉现货交投清波;2024/25北鑫加采4129/29°30B/禁3内较 多纷售基盖在CF09+10 ...

| 《八》国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年04月29日 | | 聚丙烯 | ななな | 塑料 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | PX | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 短纤 | ななな | 瓶片 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 尿素 | 女女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 纯碱 | | ななな | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 伊朗港口爆炸的市场情绪消化后,甲醇盘面回落。周期内进口到港偏低,且港口部分货源倒流向内地,沿海地 区去库幅度 ...

| 11/11/2 | 国投期采 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月29日 | | 黄金 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | 女女女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 白星代表短期多/空趋势处在一种相对均衡状态中,且当前盘面可操作性较差,以观望为主 今日贵金属延续震荡。印度和巴基斯坦之间冲突再度体现地缘乱局,特朗普关税政策前景依然扑朔选离,美 元信用危机和全球政经局势不确定性支撑金价中长期重心上移趋势。本周美国有非农等重要经 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides investment suggestions based on their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market sentiment [1][2][3] - It also emphasizes the importance of risk control, especially around the May Day holiday, due to macro - uncertainties and market volatilities [2][34][35] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: After a period of volatility, the oil price has entered a stable state. Demand growth is limited, and supply risks are weakening. It is recommended to hold a low - cost short - option portfolio to hedge against downside risks [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Russian fuel oil shipments have increased, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory is rising. The gasoline crack spread is strengthening, which boosts the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the strength of the LU contract [20] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas PG market is supported by chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure due to PDH shutdowns and import surpluses. The price is expected to remain volatile [22] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in the global political and economic situation support the long - term upward trend of gold prices. The market may be volatile this week, and position control is necessary [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The power outage in the Iberian Peninsula has raised concerns about European grid security. The refined copper market is expected to remain in surplus. It is recommended to hold short positions above 78,000 yuan for the 2507 contract [3] - **Aluminum**: The inventory of aluminum ingots and bars has decreased rapidly, and the price has rebounded. However, it may face resistance in the 20,000 - 20,300 yuan range [4] - **Zinc**: As the May Day holiday approaches, market sentiment is cautious. The consumption is weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] - **Lead**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The pre - holiday stocking demand has not materialized. The price of nickel is at the end of a rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be monitored [8] - **Tin**: The downstream replenishment demand before May Day is limited. The price is expected to decline, and short positions should be held [9] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The demand is weakening, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is strong in the short term. The price is expected to oscillate, but there may be pressure when iron - water production peaks [14] - **Coke**: The second price increase was rejected, and the inventory is high. The market is paying attention to the evolution of steel exports [15] - **Coking Coal**: The output is gradually recovering, but the inventory is high. The price is expected to be weak [16] - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: The demand for rebar lacks sustainability, while the supply - demand of hot - rolled coil is stable. The market is waiting for the implementation of policies and the strength of peak - season demand [13] Chemicals - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12] - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is weakening. The supply - demand contradiction may become prominent after the agricultural procurement peak [23] - **Methanol**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will enter the off - season. The supply - demand will gradually turn loose [24] - **Styrene**: The cost is not supportive, and the supply - demand contradiction may intensify before the May Day holiday [25] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The demand for both is weak, and the market sentiment is bearish [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The demand for PVC is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The demand for caustic soda is also weak, and the price may be low [27] - **PX & PTA**: The industry supply - demand is improving, but there are potential risks of polyester production cuts. It is recommended to go long on the PTA - crude oil spread [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand is stable, and the price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the trade situation and oil prices [29] Agricultural Products - **Grains** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybean meal will shift from tight to loose after the May Day holiday. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short term but may weaken later [34] - **Corn**: The market is divided, and the price may oscillate downward after the release of grain sources [37] - **Oils** - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The soybean supply will increase after the May Day holiday, and the palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle. Risk control is necessary [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean supply shortage will ease after the May Day holiday. The market is expected to oscillate [36] - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: The US cotton sales data is average, and the domestic cotton demand has challenges. It is recommended to wait and see [40] - **Sugar**: The Brazilian new - season supply is expected to be sufficient, and the impact of drought in Guangxi on sugarcane is expected to be limited [41] - **Apple**: The spot sales are good, and the price may rise. The market is paying attention to the new - season apple production [42] - **Egg**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the long term due to seasonal factors and increasing production capacity [39] - **Pig**: The pig supply is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline [38] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The spot freight rate is expected to be weak, and the 06 contract is under pressure. The 08 contract has policy - related uncertainties [19] - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is oscillating, and the dividend sector has investment value. Attention should be paid to the rotation between consumption and technology - growth sectors [45] - **Treasury Bond**: The short - term over - decline repair of the treasury bond market is mostly completed. The price may oscillate in the next month [46]

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 4 月 28 日 大类资产运行周报（20250421-20250425） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 2.81% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 4.16% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.33% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.13% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.73% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.36% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 1.72% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | -0.15% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250113 -20250117）-美国通胀数据 ...

| /// 国投期货 | | 教商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月28日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ななな | | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑棉有所回落。国产棉现货交投洽谈、基意坚起：2024/25南疆机采3129/29"30B/杂3内较多销售基基在0F09+1300-1400及 以上，少部分同品质低价在0F09+1250上下，内地自提。国内新疆棉花种植,南疆基本结束，北疆种植也证渐进入尾声;国内内 纷数据表现尚 ...

【钢材】 | | | | Millia | ■这部落 | 黑巴至隔日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月28日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日盘面有所反弹。螺纹表需环比下滑，回暖仍相对缺乏持续性，产量基本持平，库存继续下降，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热 卷供需趋稳，库存延续下降态势,铁水产量上升至高位,随着吨钢利润下滑,后期复产将明显放缓。从下游行业看,基建、制 造业有所好转,地产销售、新开工障幅边际收窄,整体依然疲 ...

原油经历贸易战暴跌及修复行情后短期处于相对稳态,重点关注后期供需超预期的变化。上周美国汽油表需大 幅走强,亦有消息称尼日利亚丹格特炼厂渣油催化裂化产汽油装置进入检修,汽油裂解受到提振并带动海外炼 化利润出现修复,关注北美驾驶旺季临近油品需求超预期好转的持续性。供应端俄乌、伊核、巴以均处地缘缓 和大趋势中,5/50PEC+会议亦存在继续加快增产的可能,供给增量、地球风险缓和或成为边际变化氢点，继续 持有低成本偏空期权组合对冲油价下行风险。 【與東簽紙號無裝 俄罗斯上周燃料油发运蛋有所回升,新加坡燃料油库存持续增加,FU裂解转为震荡,后续关注FU裂解到达高位 后强势能否持续;尼日利亚丹格特炼厂20万桶/天的渣油催化裂化产汽油装置进入检修,汽油裂解走强对主产品 低硫燃料油裂解构成提振。今日LU5月令约涨幅高达5.9%. 仓库仓单增加31000吨,关注LU近月强势能否持续。 【沥青】 五一节前市场备货需求增加,周度沥青出货量为44.2万吨,环比上升7.5万吨,同比上升高达17.3万吨。截至4 月24日,样本炼厂库存环比下降7.1万吨至86.2万吨;样本社会阵环比下降1.3万吨至193.5万吨,厂库与社库均 去库。供需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Gold is a relatively certain investment target due to the dual risks of the US dollar's credit and economic prospects, and its medium - to long - term price trend is upward, while short - term fluctuations increase after extreme market performance [1] - The market risk appetite will be relatively pressured before the situation of tariff policies becomes clear, and commodities will maintain wide - range fluctuations [1] - The global economic growth rate is expected to decline in 2025, and almost all countries' economic growth forecasts have been lowered, with the US growth rate dropping to 1.8% [1] - The value of gold allocation is prominent, and global gold ETFs are in a stage of significant increase [1] - Attention should be paid to the central bank's gold - buying data in the World Gold Council's Q1 "Gold Demand Trends" report [1] - During the period around the May Day holiday, pay attention to position control and participate cautiously [1] Summary by Related Content Tariff Policy - Trump will set "fair" tariff prices for different countries, is unlikely to suspend tariffs for 90 days again, and expects a trade agreement to be reached in three to four weeks [1][2] - The US Trade Representative's Office states that Trump will ultimately decide whether to advance alternative measures to cancel or reduce the current 10% tariffs on relevant countries [2] - The US - Japan finance ministers' meeting did not set exchange - rate targets, Japan is considering increasing US corn imports, and Trump says he is close to reaching a trade agreement with Japan [2] Federal Reserve - Harmaak believes that if economic data is clear, the Fed may cut interest rates in June [2] - Waller thinks it will be July to have a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy, and if tariffs lead to a rise in unemployment, the Fed may start cutting interest rates [2] - Kashkari says the frequent announcements from Washington pose challenges to policymakers and everyone [2] Economic Forecast - The IMF's latest "World Economic Outlook Report" predicts that the global economic growth in 2025 will drop from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8%, and the US growth rate will decline by 1 percentage point to 1.8% [1] Gold Market - The price of gold is in a medium - to long - term upward trend, and short - term fluctuations increase after extreme market performance. Key US economic data will be released this week [1] - Global gold ETFs are in a stage of significant increase, and attention should be paid to the central bank's gold - buying data in the World Gold Council's Q1 report [1]