Report Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Douyi [1] - **Bullish (★★☆)**: Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Douyi [1] - **Not Rated**: Live Hogs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are mainly affected by factors such as Sino-US and Sino-Canadian economic and trade relations, supply and demand, and cost [2][3][4][6] - Different agricultural products show different trends and investment opportunities, and attention should be paid to policy adjustments and market supply and demand changes [3][4][7] Summary by Category Soybean and Related Products - **Soybean**: The price of Douyi is approaching the previous platform high and shows a high-level consolidation state. The purchase price of domestic soybeans is stable, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state [2] - **Soybean Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal has risen, and the inventory has increased slightly. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the policy adjustment of China's soybean imports from the United States and look for opportunities to buy on dips [3] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybean futures has rebounded, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has increased. The crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state. The price of soybean oil is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the supply of the origin and the performance of the soybean market [4] Palm Oil - The palm oil market in Malaysia still faces high inventory pressure, and the production in Indonesia is higher than expected. The export demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term callback [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures price of rapeseed meal has risen significantly, mainly due to market trading on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. It is recommended to maintain a short - term long - position thinking [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, and it benefits from the listing of imported rapeseed oil from Russia [6] Corn - The futures price of Dalian corn is running strongly, but the supply of new corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the import situation of corn, and the price may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs has fallen, and the futures price has hit a new low. Due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the pressure of subsequent slaughter, it is expected that the price of live hogs may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The futures price of eggs is strong, and the far - month contract has hit a new high. The price of vegetables provides support for the price of eggs. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling in the fourth quarter [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Log: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - Overall, different soft commodities have different market conditions and price trends. Some prices are expected to be weak, some are in a state of uncertainty, and some are showing signs of strength or weakness. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant factors such as policies, weather, inventory, and sales, and most commodities are recommended to be on the sidelines for the time being [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zheng cotton rose slightly today, and the spot sales basis of cotton remained stable. The acquisition in northern Xinjiang is basically over, while that in southern Xinjiang is still ongoing, with higher prices in southern Xinjiang. As of November 1st, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. The spot trading last week was average, the downstream pure - cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly, and the market transaction was dull. The new orders of weaving factories were poor, and the stocking willingness was low. Zheng cotton's short - term trend may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the first half of October was neutral, with the cane crushing volume basically the same year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio decreasing month - on - month but still increasing slightly year - on - year. In China, Zheng sugar was relatively strong. There were rumors of syrup import control, providing some support. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. The rainfall in Guangxi since July has been good, and the sugar output in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. It is expected that sugar prices will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. The inventory progress in Shandong is slow, and the initial cold - storage inventory is uncertain. Due to poor quality but high prices, the reluctance to sell is high, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The apple price is high, and there is a lack of positive factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory situation and wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated, NR fell slightly, and BR fell sharply. The futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight increase, while the synthetic rubber spot price decreased. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and China's Yunnan production area is about to enter the mature period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate decreased last week, and some plants had maintenance or planned maintenance. In October, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 93,000 units, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly last week, and the finished - product inventory increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 432,200 tons, while the butadiene rubber social inventory increased to 148,000 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures rose sharply. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream port sample inventory in China was 2.061 million tons, a 0.6 - million - ton increase from the previous period and a 0.3% month - on - month increase. In September, China imported 2.9525 million tons of pulp, a 272,500 - ton year - on - year increase. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is relatively loose, the demand is average, the downstream traditional peak - season expectation is not strong, and the terminal order release is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Log - The futures price is running weakly, and the spot mainstream price is stable. In November, the quotation of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, the domestic spot price remained weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased. The external quotation is still high, and the domestic supply may remain low. The port delivery volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is small. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the text. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The commodity market oscillated last week, closing down 0.27% overall, with only the black sector rising 1.96%, while non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.36%, 0.61%, 0.62%, and 0.97% respectively [1]. - The Fed cut interest rates and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1st, but Powell's stance was hawkish, and geopolitical uncertainties, along with a rebound in the US dollar index, may lead to short - term oscillations in the commodity market [1]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may oscillate at high levels; non - ferrous metals may operate stably; the black sector may face pressure; energy prices may oscillate in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term; the chemical industry may oscillate; and in the agricultural products sector, meal is expected to be stronger than oil in the short term [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Summary - **Overall Market**: The commodity market oscillated last week, closing down 0.27%. The black sector was the only one to rise, up 1.96%, while other sectors declined [1]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were apples, iron ore, and coking coal, with increases of 4.38%, 3.76%, and 3% respectively. The top - losing varieties were methanol, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, with declines of 4.05%, 3.92%, and 3.47% respectively [1]. - **Volatility and Capital**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with most varieties in precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black, and chemical sectors seeing an increase in volatility. The overall market capital scale decreased, with only the black sector seeing an increase in capital, and outflows mainly concentrated in the precious metals sector [1]. 2. Sector - by - Sector Outlook - **Precious Metals**: After a short - term oversell, the sector rebounded last week. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and ended balance - sheet reduction, but Powell's hawkish stance and policy disagreements among officials, along with the US government shutdown in a game stage, may lead to high - level oscillations in the sector [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Sino - US economic and trade relations have eased, but Powell's hawkish stance led to a rebound in the US dollar index, and China's PMI unexpectedly declined. The supply side remains tight, but the terminal is weak, and inventories have slightly increased. The sector may operate stably in the short term due to expected incremental stimulus policies and a suspension of trade frictions [2]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to improve last week, production increased, and inventories continued to decline. Hot metal production decreased significantly, and the steel mill profitability rate reached a new low this year. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be relieved. Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, and there are expectations for safety production assessments in the coking coal main production areas, but steel mills have a strong desire to lower raw material prices. The sector may face pressure in the short term [2]. - **Energy**: US EIA data showed that crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories declined more than expected, supporting oil prices. However, the Fed's negative guidance on a December interest - rate cut, the easing of Sino - US relations, and OPEC +'s decision to increase production in December limit the rebound height of oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester products, downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken in the medium term. With a lack of more positive factors, it may oscillate in the short term. For building materials, the weak reality persists, with rising costs and decreasing inventories, and it may fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: US soybeans are supported by optimistic trade expectations, and meal performance is strong. Palm oil in Malaysia has not shown seasonal production cuts, and with weak export demand, the risk of a decline in oils has increased. Meal is expected to be stronger than oil in the short term [3]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the total scale of gold ETFs decreasing by 2.91% and the total trading volume decreasing by 4.22% [33]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy and chemical ETF had a weekly return of - 0.83%, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a 2.22% return, the non - ferrous metals futures ETF had a 0.20% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a - 0.12% return. The total scale of commodity ETFs decreased by 1.83%, and the total trading volume decreased by 6.43% [33]

| Millio | ■控期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月03日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属延续震荡。上周美联储如期降息25个基点，宣布12月1日起结束缩表，但鲍威尔表态偏鹰，周内 多位官员讲话反对12月降息,体现美联储内部对政策前景分歧严重,市场预计12月降息概率下降至50%附 近。中美贸易谈判顺利结束，双方互降关税在海事物流、关税暂停期、芬太尼等问题上达成基本共识、贸易 紧张局势有所缓和。两国领导人在釜山会晤，同意加强双方在经贸、能源等领域合作,促进人文交流，两国 元首同意保持经常性交往。宏观情绪风险偏好积极,短期贵金属维持调整构筑高位震荡平台，耐心等待企稳 且波动率下降后的参与机会。关注美国政府停摆问题解决进展，非农等重要经济数据大 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The new gold tax policy will increase the tax costs of the gold industry chain to varying degrees, making the gold market more concentrated, curbing the scale of gray chain business, and cooling down speculative behavior in the physical gold industry chain. It will also maintain the activity of futures, TD, ETF and other transactions, and promote the standardized development of the industry [7][8]. 2. Key Points of the New Tax Policy - **Exemption for Certain Transactions**: Members or customers selling standard gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange or Shanghai Futures Exchange are exempt from VAT if no physical delivery occurs. For physical delivery, different VAT policies apply based on investment or non - investment use [3]. - **Investment Use by Member Units**: For member units' investment use, the exchange implements VAT immediate refund, exempts urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharge, and issues VAT special invoices. However, when member units sell to downstream, they can only issue ordinary invoices, and the downstream's tax cost increases as the VAT deduction rate drops from 13% to 0% [3][4]. - **Non - investment Use by Member Units**: For non - investment use by member units, the exchange exempts VAT and issues ordinary invoices. General VAT - paying member units can calculate input tax with a 6% deduction rate. They can issue VAT special invoices when selling processed non - investment gold products [4]. - **Customer Transactions**: Customers are exempt from VAT when purchasing standard gold from the exchange, and the exchange issues ordinary invoices. General VAT - paying customers can calculate input tax with a 6% deduction rate and can issue VAT special invoices when selling [6]. - **Non - exchange Sales**: Selling standard gold without going through the exchange should pay VAT according to current regulations [6]. 3. Impact on the Gold Industry - **Industry Concentration**: The new policy encourages gold investment product trading around exchanges and member units, making the gold market more concentrated and the gold flow more transparent [7]. - **Price Impact**: The tax cost increase at the raw material end of gold jewelry will be transmitted to downstream, leading to a significant theoretical increase in the purchase price of end - consumers. The purchase price of gold bars is less affected, but the subsequent circulation is restricted, and the sales pressure of non - member units increases sharply [7]. - **Investment and Speculation**: The policy cools down speculative behavior in the physical gold industry chain, restrains physical liquidity, and maintains the activity of futures, TD, ETF and other transactions. Ordinary people's participation in gold ETF, gold accumulation and other investments through regular channels is not affected and becomes more cost - effective [8]. - **Recycling Market**: Recycling agencies may lower the recycling price due to increased operating costs [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From October 24th to October 31st, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected. With Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks, the uncertainty of a December dollar interest rate cut increased. Globally, stocks rose while bonds and commodities declined. In China, stocks were divided, bonds rose, and commodities declined. Overall, as macro - expectations are fulfilled, the market is entering a "quiet period" with potentially narrower price fluctuations of major asset classes [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Global Major Asset Performance 1.1 Global Stock Market Overview - From October 24th to October 31st, market sentiment fluctuated. Global stock markets were divided. US stocks continued to rise due to better - than - expected corporate earnings. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index rebounded from a weekly low [8]. - In the Asia - Pacific region, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 1.08% weekly, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.11%, and the Hang Seng Index fell - 0.97%. In the Americas, the MSCI US rose 0.77%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.71%. In other markets, the Saudi All - Share Index rose 0.38%, and the Israeli TA125 rose 1.88% [11][12][13]. 1.2 Global Bond Market Overview - From October 24th to October 31st, although the Fed cut interest rates as expected, there were significant differences within the committee regarding a December interest rate cut. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds increased. The 10 - year US bond yield rose 9BP to 4.11%. The bond market declined weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > government bonds > credit bonds [14]. 1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From October 24th to October 31st, differences in the dollar interest rate cut within the year increased, and the dollar index rose weekly. Major non - dollar currencies against the dollar had mixed performance, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated. The dollar index rose 0.80% weekly [15]. 1.4 Global Commodity Market Overview - The OPEC+ meeting met expectations, and international oil prices were weak weekly. Precious metal prices fluctuated at high levels and declined weekly. Most agricultural product prices rose, and non - ferrous metal prices had mixed performance [19]. 2. Domestic Major Asset Performance 2.1 Domestic Stock Market Overview - From October 24th to October 31st, A - share major broad - based indexes lacked further upward momentum and had mixed performance. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 performed poorly. In terms of sectors, basic chemicals and new energy led the gains, while communications and banks performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.11% weekly [22]. 2.2 Domestic Bond Market Overview - From October 24th to October 31st, the central bank's net open - market operation injection was 14008 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively loose, and the bond market was strong weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [25]. 2.3 Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the black sector led the gains, and the chemical sector performed poorly [26]. 3. Major Asset Price Outlook - As macro - expectations are fulfilled, the market lacks clear short - term guidance and is entering a "quiet period". The price fluctuations of major asset classes may narrow [3][29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - As of the week ending October 31, index futures rose, with this week showing differentiation. IH2511 decreased by 0.89%, while IC2511 and IM2511 increased by 1.47% and 1.31% respectively. The basis of large - and small - cap index futures showed differentiation last week, reflecting investors' trading divergence. The valuation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is in the high historical quantile range [1]. - From the high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for index futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator 9 points, the valuation indicator 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator 9 points. For treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator 8 points [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy increased by 0.92% last week, with the gain coming from opening a long position in IC on Wednesday and closing it intraday. In the long - term, the PMI unexpectedly declined, which has a negative impact on IF and IM. In the short - term, the real estate and consumption data remain weak, the exchange rate is in a low range, and the capital situation remains relatively loose, showing a short - term low - level rebound [1]. - In terms of positions, IC and IM increased marginally, while IF and IH remained neutral. The overall market risk appetite decreased compared to the beginning of the week, and the overall comprehensive signal is in a neutral oscillation. For treasury bond futures, the capital situation remains loose, the market risk appetite is conducive to bond market recovery, the stock - bond seesaw effect is significant, the position factor rebounded, but institutions are still cautious about allocation, and the comprehensive signal is above neutral [1]. Summary by Related Content Macro - fundamental High - frequency Factor Scores - **Economic Momentum**: The blast furnace operating rate and PTA operating rate increased by 1.37%, while the refinery operating rate in Shandong decreased by 1.18%, and the all - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.02%. The operating rate of downstream looms for polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased by 6.46%. The index futures score was 7, and the treasury bond futures score was 0 [2]. - **Inflation Indicators**: The vegetable basket product wholesale price index increased by 1.20%, while the coking coal index decreased by 0.91%. The market price of 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.57%. The South China Styrene Index decreased by 0.08%. The CIF price of liquefied natural gas in China remained unchanged. The compound fertilizer index increased by 2.61%. The settlement price of natural rubber decreased by 0.88%. Both index futures and treasury bond futures scored 8 [3]. - **Liquidity**: DR007 increased by 3.13%, while DR001 decreased by 0.28%. The weighted average of GC001 decreased by 3.13%, and that of GC007 decreased by 5.85%. SHIBOR overnight increased by 0.08%, and SHIBOR 1 - week increased by 1.77%. The US dollar index increased by 0.80%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit yield (AAA) for 1 - month remained unchanged. The index futures score was 9 [4]. - **Index Valuation**: The price - earnings ratio (TTM) decreased by 3.33%, the price - sales ratio (TTM) decreased by 1.60%, the dividend yield (last 12 months) increased by 0.72%, and the price - cash - flow ratio (operating cash flow TTM) increased by 6.28%. The index futures score was 10 [5]. - **Market Sentiment (Index)**: The margin trading balance increased by 1.19%, the short - selling balance increased by 0.63%. The net purchase amount of northbound funds was unchanged at - 67.75, and the selling amount was unchanged at 494.16. The trading volume of A - shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 23.53%. The treasury bond futures score was 9 [6]. - **Market Sentiment (Bond)**: The yield to maturity of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds decreased by 3.51%, the S&P 500 Volatility Index increased by 6.54%. The credit spread (median) of all industrial bonds remained unchanged. The trading volume of the Shanghai Treasury Bond Index decreased by 3.79%. The treasury bond futures score was 8 [7]. Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes index futures and treasury bond futures. The goal is to use a multi - strategy model to allocate contracts in the financial futures market for stable net value growth. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital flow, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. The position is calculated based on institutional long and short positions [16]. Prediction Signals - According to the short - term model, the prediction signals for IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF were 0.51, 0.51, 0.52, 0.53, 0.53, and 0.52 respectively. The position indicators were all 0. According to the long - term model, the signals were 0.52, 0.51, 0.52, 0.53, 0.5, and 0.51 respectively. The comprehensive signals were 0.53, 0.51, 0.53, 0.52, 0.52, and 0.51 respectively [17]. Last Week's Situation - From October 27 to October 31, 2025, the signals for IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF were mostly 0, except that IC had a signal of 1 on October 29 [19]. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - variety Arbitrage Strategy - **Strategy Introduction**: The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factors use the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, which decomposes the interest - rate term structure into level, slope, and curvature. The signals are divided into three types: '1' (the spread may decrease), '0' (the spread trend is uncertain or oscillating), and '-1' (the spread may increase). The trend regression model is used to filter signals, and trades are made when there is resonance. In practice, a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 is used to adjust the 10 - 5Y spread [20]. - **Market Quotes and Trading Signals**: From October 27 to October 31, 2025, the N - S model and trend regression model signals for TF and T were mostly 0, except that the N - S model signal for TF and T was - 1 on October 28 [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of the crude oil market is bearish, while short - term attention should be paid to the intensity of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the geopolitical risks in Venezuela [2]. - For precious metals, the short - term market sentiment is fluctuating, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after the volatility decreases [3]. - In the copper market, the volume - price potential of Shanghai copper remains, and long - positions should be held based on 86,000 [4]. - The aluminum market is driven by positive macro - sentiment, and Shanghai aluminum will continue to run strongly in the upward channel since May [5]. - Alumina is in a pattern of oversupply, and it will mainly operate weakly with limited rebound space [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy will continue to follow the aluminum price and is unlikely to have an independent market [7]. - For zinc, a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy has a good profit - loss ratio, and Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [8]. - The lead market is a combination of long and short factors, and it is expected to fluctuate between 17,000 and 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Nickel prices are running weakly with a downward - moving center of gravity [10]. - For tin, it is advisable to short - sell on rallies, and the right - side trading should refer to the 20 - day moving average [11]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. - The short - term trend of polysilicon depends on the fermentation of policy news, and it is recommended to take a light - position and follow - the - trend strategy [13]. - The price center of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate upwards, but the amplitude is limited [14]. - Steel prices will mainly oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [15]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - The coke price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17]. - The coking coal price is also more likely to rise than to fall [18]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, attention should be paid to the impact of the Sino - US leaders' negotiations [19][20]. - The container shipping index (European line) market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is an important observation period for spot freight rates [21]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to pay continuous attention to the low - level layout opportunities of the high - sulfur and low - sulfur price spread [22]. - The asphalt market has weak "peak - season" demand, and the medium - and long - term de - stocking is expected to slow down [23]. - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil cracking [24]. - The urea market will maintain low - level operation in the short term [25]. - Methanol is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - For pure benzene, a calendar - spread reverse arbitrage strategy is recommended [27]. - Styrene prices may continue to run weakly [28]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene prices are still under pressure [29]. - PVC may fluctuate with the overall macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - For PX and PTA, a reverse arbitrage strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to the impact of energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and its price will follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in mid - to - late November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - Glass prices have limited downward space, and it is advisable to hold short - term out - of - the - money put options [34]. - For natural rubber, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - For soda ash, a short - selling strategy on rallies should be adopted in the long term [36]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of soybean imports from the US after the Sino - US trade relaxation [37]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, attention should be paid to the supply of palm oil and the guidance of Sino - US soybean trade [38]. - For rapeseed and rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal prices may be boosted by oilseed futures prices, while rapeseed oil may continue its weak trend [39]. - For soybean No.1, attention should be paid to the performance of imported soybean trade and the policy guidance of domestic soybeans [40]. - Corn prices in Dalian may continue to run weakly at the bottom [41]. - Pig prices are likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [42]. - For eggs, it is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels in the fourth quarter [43]. - Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - For sugar, attention should be paid to the subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [45]. - Apple prices are expected to remain high in the early sales stage, and attention should be paid to the subsequent warehousing situation [46]. - For timber, low inventory strongly supports the price, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48]. - In the stock index market, the market style should focus on the technology - growth sector, and the layout should be based on the direction of technological innovation and industrial upgrading [49]. - The yield curve steepening of treasury bonds is expected to come to an end [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices declined slightly, with Brent's December contract down 0.94%. The eight voluntary - production - cut countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [2]. - **Precious Metals**: On Friday, precious metals fluctuated. The Fed's internal disagreement on policy prospects, Sino - US trade relaxation, and the US government shutdown are affecting market sentiment [3]. - **Copper**: On Friday, domestic and foreign copper prices recovered some losses. The volume - price potential of Shanghai copper remains [4]. - **Aluminum**: On Friday, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. Macro - sentiment is positive, but the fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited resonance [5]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 is 20,800 yuan. It will follow the aluminum price [7]. - **Zinc**: The LME plans to limit near - month positions. The upside resistance of zinc at the 3,050 - dollar mark is large [8]. - **Lead**: The supply pressure of lead is increasing, but the cost support is still strong [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are running weakly, with the center of gravity moving downwards [10]. - **Tin**: Last week, domestic and foreign tin prices fluctuated. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure at high levels. The futures price is rising, and the market is actively trading [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price has risen significantly, driven by the planned capacity storage of leading enterprises [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production in Xinjiang has increased slightly, while that in Yunnan has declined due to the dry season [14]. - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices fell on Friday night. The demand for thread and hot - rolled coil is improving, but the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price rebounded last week. The supply is high, and the demand support is weakening [16]. - **Coke**: The coke price rose and then fell during the day. There is an expectation of a third price increase [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price rose and then fell during the day. The overall inventory has increased slightly [18]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: The demand for both is supported by high iron - water production. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' negotiations [19][20]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". This week is an important observation period for spot freight rates [21]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost. The high - sulfur market has a multi - factor intertwined pattern, and the low - sulfur market is weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The demand in the north is decreasing, and the commercial inventory is de - stocking faster [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The weekly commodity volume has decreased slightly, and the arrival volume has increased significantly [24]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are fluctuating narrowly. The market sentiment is boosted by industry meetings [25]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures price has fallen significantly. The port inventory pressure is large [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Last week, the price of pure benzene declined. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - **Styrene**: Styrene prices may continue to run weakly due to weak cost support and inventory concerns [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene has increased slightly. The prices of polypropylene and plastic are under pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PX and PTA is increasing. A reverse arbitrage strategy should be continued [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol follows the external market, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in mid - to - late November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - **Glass**: Glass prices have limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the improvement in Shahe's spot market [34]. - **Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber**: Demand is slowly recovering, and it is advisable to pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures price is falling. A short - selling strategy on rallies should be adopted in the long term [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The price of Dalian soybean meal contract 2601 continued to be strong on Friday night. Attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of soybean imports from the US [37]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the supply of palm oil and Sino - US soybean trade [38]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may continue its weak trend [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of soybean No.1 is slightly rising. Attention should be paid to the trade of imported soybeans and domestic policies [40]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures prices declined slightly on Friday night. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [41]. - **Pig**: Pig prices are likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [42]. - **Egg**: Egg prices are fluctuating. It is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising, and Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate in the short term [44]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - **Apple**: Apple prices are expected to remain high in the early sales stage [46]. - **Timber**: Timber prices are supported by low inventory [47]. - **Pulp**: Pulp prices are fluctuating narrowly. The port inventory is high, and the demand is general [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares showed structural differentiation. The market style should focus on the technology - growth sector [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures are fluctuating strongly. The yield curve steepening is expected to end [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of the crude oil market is bearish, while short - term attention should be paid to the intensity of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the geopolitical risks in Venezuela [2]. - For precious metals, due to the internal policy differences of the Fed, trade easing signals, and the US government shutdown situation, the short - term market sentiment is volatile, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after the volatility decreases [3]. - The copper price has potential, and long - positions can be held with a support level of 86,000 [4]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is strong, and the upper resistance is the high point in November 2024 [5]. - Alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space and mainly weak operation [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market for the time being [7]. - LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with both long and short factors coexisting [9]. - The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin prices are expected to be short - sold on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the focus is on inventory reduction and policy increments [12]. - The short - term trend of polysilicon depends on policy news, and it is advisable to go long with a light position and pay attention to policy signals [13]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise with a limited increase, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream polysilicon production cuts in November [14]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [15]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand for both is acceptable [19][20]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - For fuel oil, there are opportunities to layout the low - level spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt has weak demand in the "peak season", and the medium - to - long - term de - stocking slowdown has limited support for prices [23]. - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. - Urea prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - For pure benzene, it is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX and PTA are expected to continue the reverse spread strategy, and attention should be paid to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and prices may follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - Glass prices are expected to have limited downward space, and it is advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - For natural rubber and synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - Soda ash is expected to be short - sold at high prices in the long term and fluctuate with the upstream and macro - sentiment in the short term [36]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, pay attention to the supply of palm oil and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks and continue to be weak [39]. - For soybean No.1, pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - For live pigs, there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - For eggs, look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - For sugar, pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apple prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. - Wood prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - For stock indices, focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude oil: Last week, international oil prices declined slightly, with Brent December contract down 0.94%. Voluntary - production - cut 8 countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [2]. - Fuel oil & low - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has a mixed situation, and the low - sulfur market is weak. There are opportunities for low - level spread layout between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt: Northern construction is gradually stopping, and the "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, with limited medium - to - long - term support [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. Metals - Copper: Last Friday, copper prices recovered some losses. The Shanghai copper has potential in terms of volume and price [4]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum continued to be strong last Friday, and the short - term trend is upward [5]. - Alumina: It is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the aluminum price and has no independent market [7]. - Zinc: LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below [8]. - Lead: Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [9]. - Nickel & stainless steel: The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin: It is advisable to short - sell on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Carbonate lithium: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to de - stocking and policy increments [12]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has risen significantly, and the short - term trend depends on policy news [13]. - Industrial silicon: The price is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream production cuts [14]. - Iron ore: The supply is high, and the demand support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke & coking coal: Prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon & ferrosilicon: Affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand is acceptable [19][20]. Chemicals - Urea: Prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol: It is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stabilize [26]. - Pure benzene: It is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to inventory accumulation [27]. - Styrene: Prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene & plastic & propylene: Prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC & caustic soda: PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX & PTA: Continue the reverse spread strategy and pay attention to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol: Expected to continue to accumulate inventory and follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber & bottle - chip: Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & soybean meal: Pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - Soybean oil & palm oil: Pay attention to palm oil supply and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed & rapeseed oil: Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks [39]. - Soybean No.1: Pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn: Prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - Live pigs: There is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - Eggs: Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - Sugar: Pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apples: Prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. Others - Container shipping index (European line): In a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - Wood: Prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp: Prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - Stock indices: Focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures: Expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon futures price has significantly strengthened recently, driven by the improved third - quarter performance of photovoltaic listed companies, the demand resilience shown by the September domestic photovoltaic installation volume, and the rising expectation of state reserve purchase [1] - The spot market has limited ability to push up prices due to the high inventory and slow inventory clearance under the pattern of weak supply and demand [2] - The polysilicon market is in a game between policy expectations and industrial reality, with uncertainties in capacity policies and industrial production cuts, and the short - term trend depends on policy news [3] Summary by Related Topics Factors Driving the Strengthening of Polysilicon Futures Price - The improved third - quarter performance of photovoltaic listed companies has enhanced the secondary market's expectation of the industry's "anti - involution" effect, and the sentiment has spread to the futures market [1] - In September, the domestic photovoltaic installation volume reached 9.66GW, showing demand resilience with a 31.25% month - on - month increase, and the expectation of the year - end installation peak season supports market confidence [1] - The expectation of state reserve purchase has risen again, and the statements of leading polysilicon enterprises in the media have promoted the market's optimistic sentiment towards capacity regulation [1] Situation of the Spot Market - After the National Day, the polysilicon trading was generally dull, with the quotation generally stable and locally loose. The lower limit of the N - type re -投料 transaction price dropped slightly to 49,500 yuan/ton, and the upper limit remained at 55,000 yuan/ton [2] - In October, the polysilicon production cut was less than expected, with the monthly output expected to increase by about 4,000 tons, and the industry inventory remained at a high level [2] - In November, although there is an expectation of production cuts in the southwest region due to the dry season, the downstream silicon wafers may also cut production simultaneously due to the association quota constraints. The inventory clearance is expected to be slow, and the ability to push up the spot price is limited [2] Uncertainties and Future Trends in the Polysilicon Market - The market is in a game between policy expectations and industrial reality, with uncertainties in whether capacity policies will be implemented as scheduled and whether industrial production cuts will be weakened by high prices [3] - The short - term trend depends on the fermentation of policy news, with the futures price being easy to rise and hard to fall. However, if the expectations are disappointed or the spot price fails to follow the rise, the risk of a high - level correction will significantly increase [3] - It is recommended to operate with a light position and follow the trend, and pay attention to policy signals and the production plans of leading enterprises [3]