Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into their price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and investment suggestions based on current market conditions and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there is still downside potential for oil prices this year. Short - term support exists due to geopolitical factors, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose, while low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to widen further [22] - **Asphalt**: The poor shipment volume falsifies the construction rush demand expectation, and the market is bearish with significant pressure on prices [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG shows a narrow - range oscillation and is relatively strong among oil futures. The decrease in supply and the increase in demand support the LPG market [24] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday swings. They lack a strong driving force and may continue to consolidate. Attention should be paid to the $4150/ounce resistance level for international gold prices [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, Shanghai copper showed a position - reducing oscillation. The upward momentum of the copper market is declining, and short - term trading strategies such as buying put options are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated slightly stronger. Attention should be paid to the resistance around the November 2024 high of 21,800 yuan [5] - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and it is expected to operate weakly with limited rebound space [6] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open. Low inventory supports the external market, and Shanghai zinc is expected to follow the external market to make up for the increase [8] - **Lead**: The external market rebounds strongly, and the domestic market is supported by rigid demand and is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,600 yuan [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is affected by over - supply, and the price is expected to be weak [10] - **Tin**: Affected by news from Indonesia, the short - term upward momentum is strong, and short - selling above 290,000 yuan is recommended [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: It shows a slight correction and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to improved demand and reduced inventory [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price drops significantly, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support at the lower edge of the range [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price declines slightly, and the short - term is expected to oscillate after the center of gravity rises [14] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [16] - **Coke**: The downstream acceptance of the fourth - round price increase is poor, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [18] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates weakly, with strong support at the bottom [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates weakly, and it is judged to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [20] Chemicals - **Benzene and Its Derivatives**: Benzene is weak, styrene maintains a tight supply - demand balance but is under price pressure, and polypropylene, plastic, and propylene have weak supply - demand support [27][28][29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to run at a low level due to high supply and low demand, while caustic soda runs weakly [30] - **PX and PTA**: They oscillate, with a bearish outlook in the short - to - medium term and an expected inventory build - up for PTA [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply growth pressure is large, and a bearish view is maintained [32] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good spot pattern but weakening demand, while bottle - chip demand fades with processing margin pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybeans is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Vegetable oil boosts the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Palm oil is in a high - inventory situation, and its price is oscillating [38] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The shortage of rapeseed in coastal areas supports rapeseed oil prices. Short - term observation is recommended [39] - **Corn**: The futures price oscillates at a high level, and the supply is expected to be loose, with limited rebound height [41] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The spot price drops slightly, and the futures price may rebound seasonally, with attention paid to the supply release rhythm [42] - **Eggs**: The far - month futures price rises, and the near - month price is weak. Observation is recommended [43] - **Cotton and Sugar** - **Cotton**: The price oscillates, with new - cotton cost providing support and demand being average [44] - **Sugar**: The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output estimate [45] - **Fruits and Others** - **Apples**: The price oscillates widely, and a bearish operation idea is maintained due to inventory pressure [46] - **Timber**: The price runs weakly, with low inventory providing support [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The price rises, and the short - term upward space may be limited. Long positions should be held cautiously [48] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares are weakly sorted, and futures contracts decline. Attention should be paid to the stability of the RMB exchange rate and domestic policy signals. A mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing is recommended [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillate upward, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The reduction of shipping prices by shipping companies suppresses market sentiment. The downward space of the December contract is limited, and attention should be paid to cargo volume improvement and the adjustment of the 02 - contract delivery rules [21]

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆ [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight precious metals rose. The US government shutdown negotiation made positive progress and is expected to restart soon. Although it weakens the impact on the economy, it is conducive to the release of phased liquidity. After the official data is restored and announced, the market will continue to weigh the economic and Fed policy prospects. Precious metals currently lack a strong driving force and may continue to build a high-level shock platform. The international gold price is concerned about the resistance around $4,150 per ounce [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs US Temporary Appropriation Bill Progress - The US Senate voted to pass the temporary appropriation bill and submitted it to the House of Representatives for review. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill at 5 am Beijing time on Thursday [1] Fed Officials' Views - Fed Governor Milan believes that the possibility of the end of the government shutdown has not significantly changed the outlook. A 50-basis-point interest rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25-basis-point cut should be made. Fed's Musalem thinks the labor market is close to full employment and is currently cooling down. The space for further policy easing is limited, and caution must be exercised. Fed's Daly says there is no inflation pressure from labor costs, and policymakers need to keep an open attitude towards further interest rate cuts [2] Trade Negotiations - Foreign media said that Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the tariff rate will be reduced to 15%. Trump responded that he is discussing an agreement to reduce tariffs with Switzerland, and the figures are not yet determined. Trump also said that he is close to reaching a trade agreement with India, which is very different from past agreements [2] China's Gold Production and Consumption - According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, in the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons compared with the same period in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%. In addition, the production of imported raw material gold was 121.149 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.94%. The total production of domestic and imported raw materials was 392.931 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.60%. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.72% [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ななな [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: 女女女 [1] Core Views - The overall supply of the chemical industry is relatively loose, and short - term demand release cannot provide continuous driving force. The cost and macro - aspects lack clear guidance [2]. - Different chemical products face various supply - demand situations and price trends, with most products under downward pressure or in a state of uncertainty [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene demand has improved temporarily, but overall supply is abundant, and short - term demand cannot drive continuously. Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. Domestic supply of polyethylene increases, and demand shows weakness. For polypropylene, supply pressure increases, and demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price is weak, with a small decline in East China spot and stable Shandong quotes. There are short - term consolidation and medium - term negatives. Benzene - styrene maintains a tight supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply - demand, and the price is under pressure [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices decreased. PX supply rises, PTA load drops, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Ethylene glycol supply has growth pressure, and demand is expected to weaken. Short - fiber demand may decline, and bottle - chip demand fades [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol price continues to fall, with high expected arrivals in November and weak downstream demand. Urea price drops, with a weak supply - demand situation and a high probability of price decline in the short term [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC price drops, with weak cost support, high supply, and low demand. Caustic soda fluctuates, with good liquid chlorine prices, but high inventory pressure [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash price weakens slightly, with cost increases and high - pressure supply in the long term. Glass price drops, with cost increases, reduced profit, and low - inventory replenishment sentiment [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are generally weak, with limited support from cost and macro - aspects. Each sub - sector faces different supply and demand situations, and short - term market trends vary [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures rose first and then fell, closing below the 5 - day moving average. Propylene demand improved temporarily, but overall supply was loose. Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. Domestic supply of polyethylene increased, and demand weakened. For polypropylene, supply pressure increased, and demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices continued to be weak, hitting a new low. There was short - term consolidation, and medium - term negatives included high imports and falling demand. The main contract of styrene futures closed down. Although supply increased slightly, demand was good, but there were concerns about future supply - demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fell. PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load increased slightly. There was an expectation of industry减产 for PTA, and it was expected to accumulate inventory. Ethylene glycol supply pressure was large, and demand was expected to weaken. Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to decline. Bottle chip demand faded, and there was long - term over - capacity [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures prices continued to fall. With high imports and weak demand, it might be under pressure in the short term, but with low valuation. Urea prices also fell. Domestic supply - demand was loose, and prices were likely to decline [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices continued to decline due to weak cost support, high supply, and falling demand. Caustic soda fluctuated. Although liquid chlorine prices were good, there was still high inventory pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices weakened slightly. Cost increased, and there was a long - term supply pressure. Glass prices fell. Cost increased, profit narrowed, and there was weak demand [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: None - **Hold**: Soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, egg [1] - **Sell**: None Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, with some in high - level oscillations, some rising or falling, and the future trends depend on multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand, and international trade relations [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different investment strategies, including waiting for opportunities to go long, short - term waiting and seeing, and expecting limited rebounds [3][6][7] Summary by Commodity Soybean and Related Products - **Soybean**: The price of domestic soybeans is in high - level oscillation. The restart of soybean auction by Sinograin cools the market sentiment, while the purchase by Sinograin warehouses shows the advantage of high - protein soybean prices. The warehouse receipts of domestic soybeans increase with the rebound of imported soybeans. Short - term focus is on policies and market sentiment [2] - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The main contract of soybean meal futures oscillates. US soybeans are in a wide - range oscillation after a strong rise. The import tax rate of US soybeans in China is changed to 13%, but commercial imports still have no price advantage. The supply of soybeans is expected to be basically sufficient in Q4, and there may be inventory reduction in Q1 next year. The sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans is 58.4% as of November 8th. Focus on the USDA November supply - demand report and look for long - buying opportunities after the Sino - US trade eases [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Soybean oil and palm oil follow rapeseed oil to strengthen. The short - and medium - term supply - demand of rapeseed oil is strong, which boosts the price of soybean and palm oil. The high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia needs attention. The loss of the near - end crushing profit of imported soybeans supports soybean oil. The oil - meal ratio shows that soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal this week. The price of palm oil is in a horizontal oscillation, and its supply - demand and the trend of surrounding oils need attention [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The positions and trading volume of domestic rapeseed futures contracts increase, maintaining the trend of strong oil and weak meal. The shortage of rapeseed in coastal areas leads to a more than expected decline in the inventory of rapeseed products, especially rapeseed oil, which supports its price. Supply - side focus is on the arrival time of Australian rapeseeds, the data adjustment of the USDA supply - demand report, and the Sino - Canadian relations. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [6] Corn - The 2601 contract of Dalian corn futures rises by 0.93% with reduced positions. The estimated output of this season's corn is 3 billion tons, a 1.72% increase. The spot price is strong in some areas due to temperature drop and reduced supply. The price of wheat starts to weaken. The high - level supply of grains in the Northeast has not passed, and the rebound height of the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is expected to be limited, and it may continue to operate at the bottom [7] Livestock and Poultry Products - **Pig**: The spot price of pigs decreases slightly, while the futures show a significant increase in positions, and the near - month January contract drops sharply. The high price difference between fattening pigs may slow down the overall slaughter rhythm, and the pig price may have a seasonal rebound. In the long - term, the pig price may have a second bottom - probing next year [8] - **Egg**: The far - month egg futures price rises sharply and breaks through the previous oscillation platform. The reason is the expected decline in the laying - hen inventory due to the sharp decrease in chick replenishment in the second half of this year. The near - month contracts are weak due to the weakening of the spot price. The overall egg price is stable with some provincial declines. Focus on the spot performance and old - hen culling, and wait and see for now [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has cooled down from its upward trend and entered a period of oscillation. The aluminum market shows significant divergence, with the price expected to be macro - led and oscillate strongly. The zinc market presents opportunities for short - term long positions and cross - market reverse arbitrage. The lead market is expected to oscillate in the short term with potential long - term upside. The nickel and stainless - steel market remains under pressure. The tin market may face a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside. The polysilicon market is expected to continue oscillating [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Sentiment**: After reaching a high, copper prices declined and oscillated last week. The market is more concerned about the UK's income pressure, and the probability of interest rate cuts has increased [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak. Domestic refined copper production decreased in October, and consumption is sluggish. The inventory decreased last week [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Codelco lowered its production guidance, and some mines have resumed production [1]. - **Market Trend**: The copper market is dominated by funds. It is recommended to wait and see or use options for trading [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity of alumina increased slightly, and the price is in a weak state [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity is temporarily stable, with new domestic capacity under construction and overseas capacity expected to resume production [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream processing enterprises decreased slightly [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased. The spot premium and discount fluctuated slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: The market is macro - led and oscillates strongly, but the fundamental resonance is limited, and market divergence has intensified [1]. Zinc - **Market Trend**: The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the external market supports the domestic market [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory stopped falling, and the domestic smelter's profit is under pressure [1]. - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption is weak, but traders in the East China region are bullish [1]. - **Market Trend**: Short - term long positions can be considered, and attention should be paid to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. Lead - **Market Situation**: The LME lead inventory decreased, and the external market rebounds, supporting the domestic market [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost has increased [1]. - **Consumption**: The demand for lead - acid batteries is improving [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets are sluggish, with weak trading [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The overall nickel industry is over - supplied, and the market is in a downturn [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The premium of nickel decreased, and the inventory of related products changed slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: The nickel market is in a weak state [1]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The tin price oscillated last week, and the short - term decline attracted buying interest [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin supply is tight, and the overall inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Consumption**: Consumption lacks bright spots [1]. - **Market Trend**: It may be in a tight supply situation in the short term, but the long - term price support is weakening [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises are actively producing, and the battery orders are increasing [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased, and the price of Australian ore increased [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures and spot prices increased slightly [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is shrinking, and demand is weak overall [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price oscillated and declined, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory decreased slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to continue oscillating [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★★ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, with the cost center shifting down due to the decline of furnace materials, and the steel plate is under pressure, mainly in a weak shock in the short term [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, with the supply side showing some fluctuations and the demand side weakening due to reduced steel demand [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are facing pressure from reduced downstream demand and abundant carbon element supply, with prices expected to be relatively strong in a shock [4][6]. - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are affected by the decline in iron - water production, with different supply - demand situations and price trends [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - In the off - season, the apparent demand and production of thread steel and hot - rolled coil both decline, and the inventory situation varies. Iron - water production falls from a high level, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated. The overall domestic demand is weak, and exports have declined from a high level. The demand expectation is pessimistic, and the plate is under pressure [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have declined month - on - month, and domestic arrivals have dropped significantly but are still at a high level, with port inventories continuing to increase. On the demand side, steel demand in the off - season has decreased, and iron - water production has continued to decrease. The market is trading the reality of a marginally looser iron ore supply, and the trend is expected to be volatile [3]. Coke - The price has declined during the day. The downstream acceptance of the fourth - round price adjustment is poor. Coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, with downstream demand for raw materials decreasing [4]. Coking Coal - The price has declined during the day. Mongolian coal imports have increased, and the production of coking coal mines has decreased slightly. The total inventory has increased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as safety inspections in coal - producing areas and reduced downstream demand [6]. Silicon Manganese - The price is weakly volatile. The demand has decreased due to the decline in iron - water production. The weekly production has decreased slightly but is still at a high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The price of manganese ore has shown some fluctuations [7]. Silicon Iron - The price is weakly volatile. The demand from iron - water production has decreased, but the export demand has increased marginally, and the secondary demand has also increased. The supply is at a high level, and the inventory has decreased. Cost factors may lead to a price rebound [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market has cooled down after a surge and entered a period of oscillation. The aluminum and alumina market shows significant divergence, with the overall trend being macro - led and oscillating slightly stronger. The zinc market presents opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage. The lead market is short - term bull - bear balanced and oscillating in a certain range. The nickel and stainless steel market is under fundamental pressure. The tin market may be in a short - term tight situation but is expected to decline in the long run. The lithium carbonate market is in a state of strong supply and demand, with short - term strong oscillations. The industrial silicon market has weak supply and demand but may oscillate slightly stronger. The polysilicon market is mainly influenced by policy expectations and will continue to oscillate [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Price and Sentiment**: Copper prices declined and oscillated last week after hitting a high. The market is more sensitive to demand changes after digesting supply - side news. The probability of interest rate cuts in the UK has increased, and the domestic October household appliance export volume has turned negative [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak. Domestic refined copper production decreased in October, and the expected production increase in December is limited. The downstream acceptance of high tin prices is better than in Q2 last year, and the inventory decreased last week [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Codelco lowered its annual production guidance, and some overseas mines have resumed production [1]. - **Trend**: The copper market is dominated by funds. The upward momentum has decreased. It is recommended to observe or conduct option trading [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity of alumina increased slightly, and the price is running weakly, with the lower limit pointing to the low point in the first half of the year [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity is temporarily stable. There are new domestic production capacity plans, and overseas production capacity is expected to resume in 11 - 12 months [1]. - **Demand**: The domestic downstream processing leading enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased slightly. The spot premium and discount fluctuated within a narrow range [1]. - **Trend**: The market is macro - led and oscillating slightly stronger, but the fundamental resonance is limited, and the market divergence has intensified [1]. Zinc - **Trend**: The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the external market is strong, supporting the domestic market. The domestic market is testing the pressure level [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory has stopped falling, and the domestic smelter's profit is under pressure, with an increasing expectation of production reduction. There are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [1]. - **Consumption**: The terminal consumption is weak, mainly for rigid procurement. Traders in the East China region are bullish [1]. - **Trend**: It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions and pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. Lead - **Market**: The LME lead inventory has been decreasing, and the external market is rebounding, supporting the domestic market. The long - short confrontation in the domestic market is intense [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME lead inventory decreased, and the supply of lead concentrate is in short supply. The profit of smelters is good, and the supply is expected to increase [1]. - **Consumption**: The demand is improving, with good performance in energy - storage batteries and automobile batteries [1]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,600 yuan/ton in the short term, and it is recommended to participate in short - term long positions at low prices [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: The nickel and stainless steel markets were oscillating at a low level last week, with light trading [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The non - ferrous market is strong externally, but the nickel industry is restricted by over - supply, and the market is sluggish [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The premium of nickel decreased, and the inventory of related products changed slightly. The support of upstream price rebound is weakening [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel market is running weakly [1]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price continued to oscillate last week, and the short - term decline attracted buying interest [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin supply is tight, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply of overseas mines is generally stable [1]. - **Consumption**: There are no obvious bright spots in consumption [1]. - **Trend**: The tin market may be tight in the first half of November, but it is expected to decline in the long run. It is recommended to consider short - selling [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, with active trading and significant capital inflow [1]. - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan, and the price of industrial grade is 200 yuan/ton. The supply adjustment supports the price [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises are actively increasing production, and the battery factory orders are increasing [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased, and the mine - end quotation strengthened [1]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price rose above 9,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased slightly [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. The production of polysilicon is expected to decline, and the supply of organic silicon has increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased, with a significant decrease in the delivery warehouse [1]. - **Trend**: The market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price oscillated and declined, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand are both weak. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is decreasing, and the terminal installation is at a low level [1]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of polysilicon decreased slightly [1]. - **Trend**: The market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, mainly influenced by production capacity regulation expectations [1].

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals rose. The positive progress in the US government shutdown negotiation is expected to restart soon. Although it weakens the impact on the economy, it is beneficial to the release of short - term liquidity. After the official data is released, the market will continue to weigh the economic and Fed policy prospects. Precious metals currently lack a strong driver and may continue to build a high - level shock platform. The international gold price should focus on the resistance around $4150 per ounce [1] Other Key Points US Temporary Appropriation Bill Progress - The US Senate voted to pass the temporary appropriation bill and submitted it to the House of Representatives for review [1] - The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill at 5 am Beijing time on Thursday [1] Fed Officials' Views - Fed Governor Milan: The possibility of the end of the government shutdown has not significantly changed the outlook. A 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25 - basis - point cut should be made [2] - Fed's Musalem: The labor market is close to full employment and is currently cooling. The room for further policy easing is limited. Caution must be exercised [2] - Fed's Daly: There is no inflation pressure from labor costs. Policymakers need to keep an open mind about further interest rate cuts [2] Trade Agreement News - Foreign media said that Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the tariff rate will be reduced to 15%. Trump responded that he is discussing an agreement to lower tariffs with Switzerland, and the figures are not determined [2] - Trump: Close to reaching a trade agreement with India, which is very different from past agreements [2] China's Gold Production and Consumption Data - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons or 1.39% year - on - year. Imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.94%. The total gold production from domestic and imported raw materials was 392.931 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.60% [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.72% [2]