Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is represented by three red stars, indicating a more distinct upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, slightly lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. The market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals have formed a high - level oscillation platform. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. For silver, as the US dollar index rebounds, market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise again [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75% - 4.00% range last week, the second cut this year. However, Chairman Powell indicated that another rate cut is not certain. Traders' expectation of a December rate cut dropped from nearly 100% to 65.3%, causing non - interest - bearing gold to lose the support of falling interest rates [2] - The dovish representative, Governor Milan, advocates significant rate cuts, while hawks like Chicago Fed President Goolsbee are concerned about inflation, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid believes that further rate cuts carry high risks [3] - The market has entered a typical "high - level interest - rate" phase. Three uncertainties, including the unclear Fed policy outlook, data vacuum due to the US government shutdown, and China's end of the gold tax - exemption policy, are putting pressure on gold prices. Gold prices still face a risk of further correction in the short term [3] Summary by Related Content Market Conditions of Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals continued to oscillate. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected and the previous value. Precious metals have formed a high - level oscillation platform, and it's recommended to wait and see. For silver, the market risk appetite has weakened, and the gold - silver ratio may rise [2] Fed's Interest - Rate Policy - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% last week, the second cut this year. Chairman Powell said another cut is not certain. Traders' expectation of a December rate cut dropped from nearly 100% to 65.3% [2] - Dovish and hawkish officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Dovish officials advocate significant cuts, while hawkish officials are concerned about inflation and the risks of further cuts [3] Market Risks and Outlook - The market is in a "high - level interest - rate" phase. Three uncertainties are pressuring gold prices, and there is a risk of further short - term correction [3]

Group 1: Metal Price Information - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 86,590, down 250; SMM flat - water copper premium is - 45, down 15 [1] - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21,440, unchanged; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 10, down 10 [1] - Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 2,840, down 5; Australian alumina FOB average price is 318 dollars, down 1 dollar [1] - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 17,250, up 25; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 170, down 45 [1] - Recycled refined aluminum average price is 17,175, up 25; recycled lead average price increase is 25; refined - scrap spread is 75, unchanged [1] - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,580, up 230; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 60, down 30 [1] - SMM 1 tin average price is 285,400, unchanged; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 370, down 240 [1] - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 273,400, unchanged; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan)/SMM 1 tin ratio is 95.80% [1] - 1 imported nickel average price is 120,950, down 200; 1 imported nickel premium to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 400, unchanged [1] - SMM electrowinning nickel average price is 120,600, down 200; SMM electrowinning nickel premium average price is 50, unchanged [1] - 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123,150, down 200; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 2,600, unchanged [1] - Oxygen - through 421 (Xinjiang) average price is 9,050, unchanged; Oxygen - through 421 (Xinjiang) premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,300, down 95 [1] - N - type polysilicon re - feedstock average price is 52.2, down 0.05; N - type polysilicon dense material average price is 51, unchanged [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,900, down 100; Battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 2,180, up 1,680 [1] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78,700; the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200, unchanged [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Chief analyst Dian Shi is responsible for copper and tin, with qualification number F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1] - Senior analyst Liu Dongbo is in charge of aluminum, alumina, and gold, with qualification number F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1] - Senior analyst Wu Jiang is responsible for nickel and stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with qualification number F3085524 and investment consulting number Z0016394 [1] - Intermediate analyst Sun Fangfang is in charge of lead and zinc, with qualification number F03111330 and investment consulting number Z0018905 [1] - Intermediate analyst Zhang Xiurui is responsible for industrial silicon, with qualification number F03099436 and investment consulting number Z0021022 [1]

Overall Key Points - The report analyzes the overnight performance and future trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives [2][3][4] Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% increase in inventory in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory accumulation of upstream crude oil is concentrated in the transit link. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations, and the suspension of production increase in the first quarter of next year reflects the organization's management of the downward risk. However, according to the current production increase path, the market supply-demand surplus in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year still faces marginal expansion. Short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunity of the short-selling portfolio after the geopolitical risk is priced again [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The medium-term supply pattern of high-sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the previous high valuation faces correction pressure. The low-sulfur market has received short-term support, and the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to tighten. The price difference between high and low sulfur is expected to further widen [22] Asphalt - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil and shut down, and the weekly output decreased. The construction in the north is gradually declining, and the construction in the northeast and northwest has gradually stopped under the influence of low temperatures. The south still has the demand for rush construction. Since late October, the year-on-year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has shown a negative growth for the first time, and it is likely to continue the trend of negative year-on-year growth in the future. The decline of the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year-on-year for the first time at the end of October [23] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG contract continued to fluctuate narrowly. The weekly LPG commodity volume decreased slightly, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The improvement of chemical profit has promoted the increase of demand, and the cooling in many places has driven the improvement of combustion demand. The market expects the overall demand to improve. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased slightly, and the port storage capacity ratio increased. The marginal improvement of the fundamental expectation still supports LPG [24] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was slightly lower than expected and the previous value. Recently, many Fed officials have spoken out against a rate cut in December, reflecting internal differences. The US government shutdown is still in the game stage, and the non-farm payroll data this week may not be released. The market is waiting for new drivers, and precious metals have built a high-level shock platform. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell in late trading. The market is evaluating the copper consumption at the end of the year. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for the eighth consecutive month, and the high copper price in China has suppressed demand. However, compared with the second quarter of last year, the spot side has improved its passive adaptability in the environment of "weak supply and demand". At the same time, the domestic social inventory has accumulated to more than 200,000 tons, and there is still a certain space from the critical point of the lagging reflection of supply and demand. After the short-term copper price reached a high, there is a certain risk of correction. Attention should be paid to the support toughness of the MA20 moving average. Some long positions can be held based on the key moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 million tons compared with Thursday. Since October, the domestic inventory and spot performance have been average, and the apparent consumption is basically flat year-on-year. The macro sentiment dominates, and the resonance of the aluminum market fundamentals is limited. In the short term, it fluctuates strongly towards the high point in November 2024, but the upward space is cautiously viewed for the time being [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open, the LME zinc inventory has increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 161,700 tons. The divergence of the inventory between the domestic and foreign markets has temporarily stopped, and the cross-market arbitrage funds have the demand to take profits. The domestic mine TC continues to decline to 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported mine TC also declines synchronously. The short-term rebound momentum of SHFE zinc is relatively strong. Short-term long positions can be participated, and the high rebound range is temporarily seen at 23,000-23,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: On Monday, the SMM lead social inventory slightly increased to 30,200 tons, which is generally low. The correction of SHFE lead is not smooth, and the fundamentals are mixed. The funds are more cautious to enter the market. The raw material overlap between recycled lead and primary lead smelters is increasing day by day. Under the background of winter storage, the smelting capacity is surplus, and the shortage of lead concentrate is intensifying. The price of waste batteries remains high and stable, and the cost of SHFE lead is strongly supported. The refined scrap price difference is 75 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 lead is at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the nearby contract. Downstream enterprises tend to purchase low-priced recycled lead, and the trading of electrolytic lead is slightly sluggish. Affected by the game between cost and demand, SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,300-17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The weak downstream demand dominates the market. Although there are news of stainless steel mills reducing production, the actual implementation still needs to be observed. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high-nickel pig iron is quoted at 926 yuan per nickel point, and the support brought by the rebound of the upstream price is weakening, which may drag down the price level of the entire nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 400 tons to 947,000 tons. SHFE nickel is running weakly, and the center of gravity tends to move down [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, the tin price fluctuated weakly. The tin market lacks clear guidance and mainly follows the rhythm of the copper price. In addition to the interference of the rainy season on the transportation rhythm, the closure of the Dar es Salaam port in Tanzania may also affect the export speed of tin products. The tin price fluctuated at a high level for a long time in October, and the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is generally average, but there is still demand for spot pricing. Last week, the social inventory of SMM and Steel Union continued to flow out slightly. Subjectively, it is recommended to short on rallies or wait for the right-side trading opportunity after a clear break [11] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overnight, the iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, the global shipment volume decreased this period but is still at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, but the Brazilian shipment is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic arrival volume increased significantly this period and reached a new high this year. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased significantly last week, and the profitability of steel mills reached a new low this year, with further production reduction pressure in the future. The progress of the Sino-US trade agreement has alleviated the concern about weak exports, and an important domestic meeting has been held. After the short-term rebound of the iron ore futures, the market tends to realize some benefits. It is expected that the iron ore will fluctuate weakly at a high level [16] - **Coke**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. There is an expectation of a third round of price increase for coking coal. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Currently, downstream enterprises purchase on demand in small quantities, and the inventory increased slightly. The purchasing intention of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coke futures are at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated downward during the day. The market sentiment declined rapidly due to the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting the environmental protection standards, but most of the coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production. It is judged that the price is difficult to continue to decline. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices generally increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory decreased slightly. As the safety inspection team is about to enter the main coal-producing areas, attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, which supports the raw materials. However, the profit level of steel is average, and the pressure to reduce the price of raw materials is strong. The coking coal futures are at a discount to the Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal producing areas. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [18] - **Silicon Manganese**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The weekly output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the production remained at a high level. The silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained at a high level above 2.36 million tons. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of silicon iron remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [20] Group 3: Chemicals Polyolefins - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The market is still dragged down by the demand side, and the bearish expectation of market participants remains unchanged. However, the positive impact of the maintenance of the Binzhou PDH unit will provide a window for bargain hunting and is expected to drive propylene to stop falling to a certain extent. For polyethylene, the number of domestic petrochemical maintenance units decreased, and the capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation, resulting in an increase in domestic supply. The demand for greenhouse films and mulch films weakened, and other downstream industries showed no bright spots. The enthusiasm of factories for raw material procurement was dull, and the overall trading volume was limited. For polypropylene, the impact of new capacity and the weakening of unit maintenance intensity are expected to increase the supply pressure. The downstream operating rate is stable, with rigid demand support, but the downstream profit is limited, and the raw material procurement is cautious. The demand is difficult to release continuously, which still suppresses the market [29] Other Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol futures continued to decline significantly at night. The import supply is expected to remain sufficient, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The profits of most downstream products are not good, and the overall support for the methanol market is insufficient. Some coastal MTO units have maintenance plans in the future, and the demand of traditional downstream industries is expected to enter the off-season as the weather gets colder. The situation of high port inventory and high import supply of methanol is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the weak downstream demand further suppresses the market. The inflection point of port inventory has not appeared, and it is necessary to wait for the substantial implementation of supply reduction and demand improvement [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The chemical products fell overall at night, and the price of general benzene fell below 5,500 yuan/ton again. The arrival volume increased and the提货 volume decreased, and the port inventory increased significantly on Monday. The units restarted this week, and the operating rate of pure benzene increased slightly. The purchasing sentiment for low-price spot goods is good, but there are negative factors such as high import volume and falling demand in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm in the future, and the monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [27] - **Styrene**: The cost support is insufficient, and the improvement of the supply-demand situation is limited. The overall pressure remains. Although new units have been put into operation, the overall supply has still decreased slightly due to the sudden maintenance of individual units. The demand remains stable, and the supply-demand balance continues, but the high inventory structure is difficult to resolve, which keeps the price under pressure [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of calcium carbide decreased, and the cost support weakened. Under the weak reality, PVC is operating at a low level. Enterprises' inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased, but the industry inventory pressure is still large. The maintenance of some enterprises such as Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Tianye Tianneng Production Area, and Hangjin Technology has ended, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. The domestic demand is stable, and the export is mainly on the sidelines due to the Indian holiday and anti-dumping duties. With weak cost support and high supply and low demand, PVC may operate at a low level. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has become negative again, and the profit has narrowed. Some caustic soda enterprises have slightly raised the price, and it is operating strongly during the day. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory pressure is large. The enterprises' maintenance has recovered, and the supply has increased. The profit of alumina has been compressed, and the operating rate has decreased slightly. Currently, the raw material inventory is high, and the replenishment intention is not strong. The non-aluminum demand growth is limited. The supply pressure of caustic soda is high, and the purchasing price of alumina has been lowered again. The downstream demand is average. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level. Further attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine. If the price continues to fall, the caustic soda price may rebound at a low level under the cost support [30] - **PX & PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA closed with a doji at night, and the center of gravity moved down. The units of Wuhua Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua restarted, and the supply of PX and PTA increased. The supply and demand of PX increased simultaneously, the polyester load was stable, and PTA has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Currently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening in the medium term. Under the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation, the reverse arbitrage idea is continued. Attention should be paid to the oil price fluctuation [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased slightly, the port arrival forecast increased, and the inventory increased slightly on Monday. The Zhenhai Refining & Chemical unit is planned to restart, and the supply pressure will be further manifested. The ethylene glycol futures fell with increasing volume and open interest. The demand is expected to weaken in the medium term, and the inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The reverse arbitrage is recommended. Attention should be paid to the possibility of unit production reduction after the benefit decline [32] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly at night. The US soybeans are expected to have better sales due to the easing of Sino-US negotiations and continue to be strong. After the preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino-US-Malaysian economic and trade consultations, President Xi Jinping held a meeting with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, and Sino-US relations may tend to ease. However, as of the time of publication, there is no official policy adjustment. There are already news that China has purchased some US soybeans, but it has not been confirmed through official channels. Currently, the domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the crushing profit has been repaired, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly this week. The atmosphere of Sino-US trade easing is strong, and attention should be paid to the policy adjustment of China's import of US soybeans in the future. According to Jin10 Data, the latest US soybean premium quotation is roughly the same as that of Brazil. A significant reduction in the tariff on US soybeans is needed to resume Sino-US soybean trade. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino-US trade eases [36] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures corrected at night. The new corn in the Northeast continues to be supplied, and the price is stable with a slight

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The oil market is in a state of rapid inventory accumulation, with short - term oil prices expected to fluctuate. The precious metals market is waiting for new drivers and is advised to remain on the sidelines. Copper prices have a callback risk after hitting highs. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term. Other commodities also have their own price trends and influencing factors, and the stock and bond markets are also in a state of shock [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year, but the market supply - demand surplus may still expand. Short - term oil prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after geopolitical risks are priced in [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a supply pattern that is becoming more relaxed, and the previous high valuation faces a correction. The low - sulfur fuel market has short - term support, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is expected to widen further [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The LPG contract continues to fluctuate narrowly. The weekly commodity volume slightly decreases while the arrival volume increases significantly. The demand is expected to improve, and the fundamental improvement still supports the price [24] - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continue to fluctuate. The US ISM manufacturing PMI is slightly lower than expected, and the Fed officials have internal differences on interest rate cuts. The market is waiting for new drivers, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for now [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The London copper price fell at the end of the session. The US manufacturing PMI has been shrinking, and high domestic copper prices suppress demand. There is a risk of a short - term correction after the price hits a high, and attention should be paid to the support of the MA20 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuates. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased, and the apparent consumption is basically flat year - on - year. The short - term trend is slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited [5] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open. The LME zinc inventory has slightly increased, and the domestic social inventory has decreased. The short - term rebound momentum of Shanghai zinc is strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [8] - **Lead**: The SMM lead social inventory has slightly increased. The fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price is weakly operating. The downstream demand is weak, and the price support from the upstream is weakening [10] - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuates softly. The market lacks clear guidance and follows the copper price trend. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies or wait for a clear breakthrough [11] - **Alumina**: The alumina production capacity is at a historical high, the inventory is rising, and the supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. The price is mainly weak, and the rebound space is limited [7] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it is difficult for the cast aluminum alloy to have an independent market and continues to follow the aluminum price [6] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price fluctuates weakly. The global shipment has decreased, and the domestic arrival volume has reached a new high. The iron water production has decreased, and the steel mill profitability is at a new low. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level [16] - **Coke**: The coke price fluctuates downward. There is an expectation of a third price increase. The coking profit is average, and the inventory is almost unchanged. The price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [17] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price fluctuates downward. The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [18] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese price fluctuates. The demand is good, the production has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron price fluctuates. The demand is acceptable, the supply is at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [20] Chemical Commodities - **Methanol**: The methanol price has fallen significantly. The import supply is expected to be sufficient, the port inventory may continue to accumulate, and the downstream demand is weak. It is necessary to wait for the supply to shrink and the demand to improve [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price has fallen. The port inventory has increased significantly, the plant load has slightly increased, and there are medium - term negatives. It is advisable to focus on the port inventory accumulation rhythm and conduct reverse spread trading [27] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is under pressure. The cost support is insufficient, the supply has slightly decreased, the demand is stable, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to resolve [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene market is dragged down by demand, but the PDH device maintenance provides a buying opportunity. The polyethylene supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The polypropylene supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to release continuously [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC price is running at a low level. The cost support is weakening, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable. The caustic soda price is running at a low level, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is average [30] - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices are moving downward. The supply of both has increased, the polyester load is stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is advisable to continue the reverse spread strategy and pay attention to oil price fluctuations [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price has fallen. The production has slightly decreased, the port arrival is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. It is advisable to conduct reverse spread trading and pay attention to the possibility of plant shutdowns [32] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures price fluctuates strongly. The US soybean sales are expected to improve, and the domestic soybean arrival is sufficient. It is necessary to pay attention to China's policy adjustment on US soybean imports and look for buying opportunities on dips [36] - **Edible Oils**: The prices of edible oils are correcting downward. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, the domestic soybean crushing profit is still in a loss state, and the palm oil supply is increasing while the demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply from the origin and the performance of the soybean market [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed meal futures price has risen, and the rapeseed oil price is expected to be relatively weak. The rapeseed meal market is more affected by Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian trade relations [38] - **Corn**: The corn futures price has corrected. The new corn supply in the Northeast is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom [40] - **Hog**: The hog spot price has fallen, and the futures price has hit a new low. The supply pressure in the later period is large, and the pig price is expected to have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [41] - **Egg**: The egg futures price is strong. The vegetable price provides support, the in - production inventory is high, and the far - month contract has a high premium. It is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [42] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen slightly, and the domestic cotton price fluctuates. The cotton acquisition in the north is basically over, and the demand from downstream spinning mills is general. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations [43] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price fluctuates. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new sugar - making season's output forecast. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth [44] - **Apple**: The apple futures price is strong. The high - quality apples are priced high, and the low - quality apples have inventory pressure. It is advisable to wait and see [45] - **Wood**: The wood price is operating weakly. The supply is under pressure, the demand supports the price, and the inventory is low. It is advisable to wait and see [46] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price has risen significantly. The port inventory is high, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is general. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Others - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has a shrinking - volume rebound, and the futures index is mixed. The geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly positive attitude. It is advisable to focus on the technology - growth sector [48] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures price has closed flat. The bond market interest rate lacks downward momentum, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Alumina: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly stated, represented by "文文文" [1] - Zinc and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend [1] - Tin: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market is diverse, with different metals showing different trends and influencing factors [2][3][4] - Market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy expectations all play important roles in determining the price trends of various non - ferrous metals [9][10][11] Summary by Metal Copper - Copper prices reaching new highs are supported by supply - loss themes and high capital allocation interest. There are concerns about high prices suppressing consumption in the medium - and short - term. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, with low processing fees. The closure of the port in Tanzania may slow down copper exports to China in November. There is a risk of short - term correction after reaching a record high, but the MA20 moving average provides strong support [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum price rose. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the apparent consumption was basically flat year - on - year. The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited fundamental resonance. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market. Alumina has a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space [3] Zinc - The zinc ingot export window is open. LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and SMM zinc social inventory decreased. Domestic and imported ore TC decreased. The short - term rebound momentum of Shanghai zinc is strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly, with weak downstream demand. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, and the overall nickel industry chain price may be dragged down. Shanghai nickel is in a weak operation with a downward - moving center of gravity [7] Tin - Tin prices oscillated last week, mainly following the copper price rhythm. The closure of the port in Tanzania may affect tin exports to China. There is still demand for spot tin at rigid - need price points. It is advisable to short at high levels or wait for a clear breakthrough [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillation, with active market trading. The market has strong supply and demand. The total inventory decreased. The futures price is strengthening, and it is expected to be in a short - term strong oscillation [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. Supply has decreased significantly due to the dry - season production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan. The industry has entered a stage of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be firm, but the upward space is limited by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures are firm, with a slight increase. The market is in a game between policy expectations and fundamental reality. The short - term market is driven by sentiment, but there is a significant risk of high - level correction if policies are not implemented or spot prices do not follow [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity currently) [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity currently) [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear downward trend and a suitable investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coking Coal: The rating is not clearly interpretable from the given symbol [1] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: ★★★ (indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity currently) [1] - Ferrosilicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable from the given symbol [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market as a whole is under pressure, with the futures market in a low - level range - bound state. The real estate investment continues to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continue to fall. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the market sentiment is cautious [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be in a high - level and weakly volatile state. Although the supply is still at a high level and the demand is under pressure due to the decline in iron - making water production and low steel - mill profitability [2]. - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level iron - making water production supports the raw materials, but the steel profit is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices [3][5]. - The ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are likely to have narrow - range fluctuations. The demand is relatively stable, and the supply is at a high level [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The futures market continued to decline. The apparent demand for thread improved month - on - month, production increased simultaneously, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot roll remained good, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline [2]. - Iron - making water production declined from a high level, and the downstream's carrying capacity was insufficient. As steel - mill profits declined, the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain still needed to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in places like Tangshan [2]. - From the perspective of downstream industries, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. The overall domestic demand was still weak, steel exports remained high, the demand expectation was weak, the market sentiment was cautious, and the futures market was under pressure to decline [2]. Iron Ore - The futures market declined, and the basis fluctuated recently. On the supply side, the global shipments this period declined month - on - month but were still at a high level in the same period. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, with Brazilian shipments still at a high level in the same period and Australian shipments basically at the level of previous years [2]. - The domestic arrival volume increased significantly this period and reached a new high for the year. On the demand side, the iron - making water production decreased significantly last week, the steel - mill profitability rate reached a new low for the year, and there was further pressure to reduce production in the future [2]. - After the short - term continuous rebound of the iron ore futures market, there was a tendency to realize some positive factors in the market. It is expected that the iron ore will be in a high - level and weakly volatile state [2]. Coke - The price fluctuated downward during the day. There was an expectation of a third round of price increases in the coking industry. The coking profit was average, the daily production decreased slightly, and the coke inventory hardly changed. Currently, downstream customers made small - quantity purchases as needed, and the inventory increased slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness was average [3]. - Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, the downstream iron - making water production remained at a high level, which supported the raw materials. However, the steel profit level was average, and there was a strong sentiment to suppress the raw material prices. The coke futures market was at a premium, and the market had certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3]. Coking Coal - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The market sentiment was affected by the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area after meeting environmental protection standards, and the price dropped rapidly. However, more coal mines facing resource integration had not resumed production, so it was judged that the price was difficult to continue to decline [5]. - The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, the transaction prices generally increased, and the terminal inventory increased. The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts as safety supervision teams were about to enter the main coal production areas [5]. - Overall, the carbon element supply was abundant, the downstream iron - making water production remained at a high level, which supported the raw materials. However, the steel profit level was average, and there was a strong sentiment to suppress the raw material prices. The coking coal futures market was at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the market had certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [5]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - The price fluctuated mainly during the day. On the demand side, the iron - making water production remained at a high level above 236. The weekly production of ferrosilicon manganese decreased slightly, and the production remained at a high level. The ferrosilicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand was still good [6]. - The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted following the futures market. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. The price was likely to have narrow - range fluctuations [6]. Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated mainly during the day. On the demand side, the iron - making water production remained at a high level above 236. The export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand was acceptable [7]. - The ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to be depleted. The price was likely to have narrow - range fluctuations [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Low sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [3] Core Viewpoints - The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter. Despite OPEC+ pausing production increases in the first quarter of next year, the market supply - demand surplus may still expand. Short - term oil prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after geopolitical risks are priced again [1] - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be loose in the medium term, facing a callback pressure on high valuations, while the low - sulfur market has short - term support, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to widen [2] - The asphalt market has multiple fundamental negatives, with a decline in the main contract and a trend of negative year - on - year changes in shipments and an increase in social inventory [2] - The LPG contract continues to oscillate narrowly. The overall demand is expected to improve, with a slight decrease in refinery storage capacity ratio and an increase in port storage capacity ratio [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory increase in upstream crude oil is concentrated in transit, and the surplus pressure will be more obvious in on - shore crude oil inventory [1] - The OPEC+ meeting on Sunday slightly exceeded expectations by pausing production increases in the first quarter of next year, but the market supply - demand surplus may still expand marginally in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The medium - term surplus pressure in the oil market persists, and short - term oil prices will oscillate [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be loose in the medium term due to factors such as full pricing of Russian supply reduction, high seasonal cracking spreads, end of peak power generation demand, and steady OPEC+ production increase, facing a callback pressure on high valuations [2] - The low - sulfur market has short - term support due to the accidental shutdown of part of the Kuwaiti Al - Zour refinery, which is expected to resume by early November. The restart of the Dangote refinery eases the regional supply pressure to some extent. The market also focuses on the progress of fuel oil quota conversion, which may affect the port supply structure [2] Asphalt - The BU futures market rose with crude oil in the morning but then declined due to multiple fundamental negatives, with the main contract closing down 0.58% [2] - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil or shut down, resulting in a week - on - week decrease in production. Construction in the north is coming to an end, while there is still a rush - to - build demand in the south. The year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative since late October, and this trend is likely to continue [2] - The decline in the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year - on - year for the first time this year at the end of October [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG contract continues to oscillate narrowly. The weekly LPG commercial volume has slightly decreased, while the arrival volume has increased significantly [3] - The improvement in chemical profits has promoted demand growth, and the significant cooling in many places has boosted the demand for combustion. The market expects overall demand improvement. The refinery storage capacity ratio has slightly decreased, while the port storage capacity ratio has increased [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★☆ [1] - Urea: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure from demand, with different products facing various supply - demand situations. Positive and negative factors coexist, and investors need to pay attention to specific product trends and relevant influencing factors [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summaries by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had narrow intraday fluctuations. The demand is weak, but the maintenance of Binzhou PDH device may support price stabilization [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. The supply of polyethylene increased due to reduced maintenance and new production, while demand weakened. Polypropylene faced supply pressure from new capacity and reduced maintenance, and demand was limited by low profit [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated around 5,500 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and there are medium - term negatives. The strategy is mainly month - spread reverse arbitrage [3] - Styrene futures were weak. The cost support was insufficient, and the high inventory pressure continued [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. Supply increased, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation. The strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly, but inventory increased. The supply pressure is high, and the strategy is reverse arbitrage [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern but may face inventory accumulation in mid - to late November. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices fell sharply. High inventory and weak demand persisted, waiting for supply reduction and demand improvement [6] - Urea prices oscillated narrowly. Downstream demand increased, and inventory decreased, but the market may continue to oscillate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC was at a low level due to weak cost support, high supply, and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda prices were slightly stronger, but high inventory and weak demand may keep prices low. Attention should be paid to liquid chlorine prices [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to increased supply and reduced demand. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash [8] - Glass prices rose. Inventory is expected to decrease, but cost increase and insufficient orders may limit the rise [8]

Report Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Douyi [1] - **Bullish (★★☆)**: Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Douyi [1] - **Not Rated**: Live Hogs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are mainly affected by factors such as Sino-US and Sino-Canadian economic and trade relations, supply and demand, and cost [2][3][4][6] - Different agricultural products show different trends and investment opportunities, and attention should be paid to policy adjustments and market supply and demand changes [3][4][7] Summary by Category Soybean and Related Products - **Soybean**: The price of Douyi is approaching the previous platform high and shows a high-level consolidation state. The purchase price of domestic soybeans is stable, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state [2] - **Soybean Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal has risen, and the inventory has increased slightly. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the policy adjustment of China's soybean imports from the United States and look for opportunities to buy on dips [3] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybean futures has rebounded, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has increased. The crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state. The price of soybean oil is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the supply of the origin and the performance of the soybean market [4] Palm Oil - The palm oil market in Malaysia still faces high inventory pressure, and the production in Indonesia is higher than expected. The export demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term callback [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures price of rapeseed meal has risen significantly, mainly due to market trading on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. It is recommended to maintain a short - term long - position thinking [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, and it benefits from the listing of imported rapeseed oil from Russia [6] Corn - The futures price of Dalian corn is running strongly, but the supply of new corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the import situation of corn, and the price may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs has fallen, and the futures price has hit a new low. Due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the pressure of subsequent slaughter, it is expected that the price of live hogs may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The futures price of eggs is strong, and the far - month contract has hit a new high. The price of vegetables provides support for the price of eggs. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling in the fourth quarter [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Log: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - Overall, different soft commodities have different market conditions and price trends. Some prices are expected to be weak, some are in a state of uncertainty, and some are showing signs of strength or weakness. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant factors such as policies, weather, inventory, and sales, and most commodities are recommended to be on the sidelines for the time being [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zheng cotton rose slightly today, and the spot sales basis of cotton remained stable. The acquisition in northern Xinjiang is basically over, while that in southern Xinjiang is still ongoing, with higher prices in southern Xinjiang. As of November 1st, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 1.844 million tons. The spot trading last week was average, the downstream pure - cotton yarn followed the price increase weakly, and the market transaction was dull. The new orders of weaving factories were poor, and the stocking willingness was low. Zheng cotton's short - term trend may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the first half of October was neutral, with the cane crushing volume basically the same year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio decreasing month - on - month but still increasing slightly year - on - year. In China, Zheng sugar was relatively strong. There were rumors of syrup import control, providing some support. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. The rainfall in Guangxi since July has been good, and the sugar output in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. It is expected that sugar prices will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. The inventory progress in Shandong is slow, and the initial cold - storage inventory is uncertain. Due to poor quality but high prices, the reluctance to sell is high, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The apple price is high, and there is a lack of positive factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory situation and wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated, NR fell slightly, and BR fell sharply. The futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight increase, while the synthetic rubber spot price decreased. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and China's Yunnan production area is about to enter the mature period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate decreased last week, and some plants had maintenance or planned maintenance. In October, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 93,000 units, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly last week, and the finished - product inventory increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 432,200 tons, while the butadiene rubber social inventory increased to 148,000 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures rose sharply. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream port sample inventory in China was 2.061 million tons, a 0.6 - million - ton increase from the previous period and a 0.3% month - on - month increase. In September, China imported 2.9525 million tons of pulp, a 272,500 - ton year - on - year increase. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is relatively loose, the demand is average, the downstream traditional peak - season expectation is not strong, and the terminal order release is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [7] Log - The futures price is running weakly, and the spot mainstream price is stable. In November, the quotation of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, the domestic spot price remained weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased. The external quotation is still high, and the domestic supply may remain low. The port delivery volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is small. It is recommended to wait and see [8]