研究所 低位反弹，成本端有一定支撑 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年4月13日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 近期纸浆市场价格偏稳运行，一方面下游原纸企业采购积极性改善欠佳，原纸市场价格持续偏弱运行；另一方面，外盘报价多轮提涨，成本端亦有一定支撑 。 本周纸浆期货主力合约SP2505低位反弹，关注盘面企稳情况。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 国信期货 6 研究所 二、基本面分析：纸浆进口量增加 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年1-2月，我国共进口纸浆638.9万吨，进口金额为3990.3百万美元，平均单价为624.56美元/吨。1月至2 月累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加6.1%、8%。2月针叶浆进口量79.82万吨，环比增加9.74% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - As of April 3, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory is 3.7374 million tons, with an inventory ratio of about 28.29%. The cold storage inventory is lower than the same period last year and at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The remaining tradable goods are mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Shandong. The inventory ratio has decreased by 2.84 percentage points compared to last week and 10.48 percentage points compared to the same period last year, with a destocking rate of 55.52%. During the traditional apple sales season from April to May, terminal demand is expected to be boosted to some extent. The low inventory provides certain support for the market, and short - term operations are recommended to be treated with a bullish - biased shock mentality [13][18][36] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2505, opened higher and showed a relatively strong performance, with certain support from the fundamentals [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of April 3, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory is 3.7374 million tons, with an inventory ratio of about 28.29%. The cold storage inventory is lower than the same period last year and at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The remaining tradable goods are mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Shandong, and there is not much fruit farmer's goods in the northwest region [13] 3. Demand - side Situation - As of April 3, 2025, the inventory ratio has decreased by 2.84 percentage points compared to last week and 10.48 percentage points compared to the same period last year, with a destocking rate of 55.52%. Merchants' holiday stocking has increased the procurement difficulty. From April to May is the traditional apple sales season, and terminal demand is expected to be boosted to some extent [18] - In February, the domestic fresh apple export volume was about 68,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.28% and a year - on - year increase of 26.64%. The cumulative export volume from January to February was about 159,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.85%. Foreign trade orders increased in February, and exports are expected to perform well in the first quarter [21] - As of April 3, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of Grade 1 and 2 fruit farmer's goods for 80 and above was 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin for slice - red apples and 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin for striped apples. The price of merchant's goods was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin for slice - red apples and 4.0 - 5.0 yuan/jin for striped apples. The price of general goods was 2.7 - 2.8 yuan/jin, the price of Grade 3 merchant's goods was 2.2 - 2.4 yuan/jin, and the price of fruit farmer's goods was 1.5 - 2.0 yuan/jin [32]

研究所 延续弱势，需求缺乏提振 第 P 一 a 部 r ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年4月6日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 本周纸浆期货主力合约SP2505延续弱势，大幅回落，已经跌破前低。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 近期纸浆市场价格偏稳运行，一方面下游采浆需求缺乏提振，高价成交受阻；另一方面，外盘报价多轮提涨，成本端亦有一定支撑。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 国信期货 6 研究所 二、基本面分析：纸浆进口量增加 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年1-2月，我国共进口纸浆638.9万吨，进口金额为3990.3百万美元，平均单价为624.56美元/吨。1月至2 月累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加6.1%、8%。2月针叶浆进口量79.82万吨，环比增加9.74%，同比增加1.81%；阔 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic sugar price is expected to continue rising due to the support of fundamentals, with potential upside. The international sugar price is also expected to remain strong due to a tight supply - demand pattern [58] - The operation suggestion is to adopt a short - term bullish approach [59] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 1.49%. ICE sugar futures rebounded, with a weekly increase of 2.78% [9] 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in February was 48.9%, 1.36 percentage points faster than the same period last year [15] 3.1.3 National Production and Sales Situation - Data not elaborated in the summary part 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - From January to February, imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 million tons. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 19 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 5,188 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 6,615 yuan per ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 5,268 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 6,719 yuan per ton [25] 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the industrial inventory in February was 4.9645 million tons, an increase of 795,100 tons compared with the same period last year [28] 3.1.6 ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of ZCE sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 27,410, a decrease of 560 compared with the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 27,410, and the valid forecast was 0 [36] 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of March, the cumulative crushing volume was 617 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94%, and the sugar production was 39.983 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.34% [40] 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.09%, compared with 48.96% in the same period last year [42] 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in February were 1.825 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.44%. In the 2024/25 sugar season, Brazil's cumulative exports were 33.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65% [45] 3.1.10 International Main Producing Areas' Weather Conditions - Rainfall in Brazil's main producing areas increased, alleviating the relatively dry situation compared with the same period. Precipitation in India increased slightly [54][55] 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Domestic sugar prices are oscillating upwards, reaching new highs. It is driven by the strong performance of the international market and supported by domestic fundamentals. The sugar sales progress is faster than the same period, imports are tightened, and the pressure on domestic sugar mills is light, with firm spot prices. There may still be room for sugar prices to rise [58] 3.2.2 International Market - The northern hemisphere is at the end of the sugar - making season, but there is still a dispute over India's production. If India's production is lower than expected, there may be imports in the third quarter. Brazil's production has started, and the initial crushing progress has a significant short - term impact on the market. The overall supply - demand pattern is tight, and international sugar prices are expected to remain strong [58]

供应预期增强 甲醇偏弱震荡 --国信期货甲醇周报 2025年4月6日 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 甲醇基本面分析 3 后市展望 1.1 甲醇期现货价格及价差走势 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 2023-01-01 2023-02-01 2023-03-01 2023-04-01 2023-05-01 2023-06-01 2023-07-01 2023-08-01 2023-09-01 2023-10-01 2023-11-01 2023-12-01 2024-01-01 2024-02-01 2024-03-01 2024-04-01 2024-05-01 2024-06-01 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 港口基 ...

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - The protein meal market is affected by South American soybeans and US policies, with potential supply - demand imbalances in the domestic market and price fluctuations in the futures market [2][141]. - The global oil market, including US soybean oil, Malaysian palm oil, and domestic oils, faces uncertainties such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors [3][142]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Part I: Market Review - **CBOT Soybeans**: In Q1 2025, it first rose and then fell. Factors such as drought in Argentina, USDA reports, and tariff policies influenced its price movements [7]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: It was slightly stronger than CBOT soybeans. It followed the upward trend of CBOT soybeans in January and then showed its own characteristics due to domestic factors like logistics and inventory [7]. - **International Oils**: They fluctuated within a range. US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil were affected by factors such as biodiesel policies, weather, and export data [8]. - **Domestic Oils**: They were stronger than the international market. Different oils had different price trends influenced by import costs, policies, and inventory [8]. Part II: Protein Meal - **South American Soybeans**: Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and exports are increasing. Although some regions had drought, the overall harvest is still expected to be abundant. The premium of Brazilian soybeans is rising [13][14]. - **US Soybeans**: The expected planting area for the new year may decrease. The market is concerned about the planting area report and US tariff policies. In the short - term, CBOT soybeans will continue to oscillate at a low level [22][50]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: In Q2, domestic imported soybeans will arrive in large quantities, and the supply of soybean meal will be abundant. Although the demand from pig and poultry farming remains high, there may be a situation of oversupply, and the spot and basis prices will be under pressure [78]. Part III: Oils - **US Soybean Oil**: In Q2, it still faces demand uncertainties. The export growth space may be squeezed by South American soybean oil, and the biodiesel demand outlook is not optimistic. It is advisable to adopt a range - oscillation strategy [91]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: It enters the production - increasing cycle in Q2, with significant supply growth. However, the export is facing problems, and price cuts may be needed to promote sales. There is a risk of price decline [105][107]. - **Domestic Oils**: In Q2, the differentiation of domestic oils will be prominent. Soybean oil has a demand advantage and may start to accumulate inventory. Palm oil has weak supply and demand, and the price difference with other oils may return. Rapeseed oil has sufficient short - term supply but may accelerate inventory reduction in Q2 [139]. Part IV: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Protein Meal**: The international market focuses on US soybean planting area and tariff policies. The domestic market may face an oversupply of soybean meal. For the Dalian soybean meal market, it is advisable to buy on dips [141]. - **Oils**: US soybean oil should be treated with a range - oscillation strategy. Malaysian palm oil may decline, and domestic oils will show differentiation. Operate by shorting palm oil at high prices and going long on the price differences between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils [142].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp market continues to be weak, but there is some support on the cost side. It is recommended to approach it with an interval oscillation mindset [1][2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The pulp futures trend in Q1 2025 can be divided into three stages: from January 2 to 10, it dropped significantly due to limited new orders from downstream paper enterprises and high - price transaction difficulties; from January 13 to February 5, it rebounded as international pulp mills raised prices; from February 5 to the present, it declined from a high level because of high port inventories and low gross margins in the downstream paper industry [7] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume in January**: Global pulp production is stable at around 180 million tons. In 2022, China's pulp production was about 85.87 million tons, with a 5.01% year - on - year increase. In January 2025, China's coniferous pulp imports were 727,400 tons, a 1.51% month - on - month decrease and a 1.59% year - on - year increase; broadleaf pulp imports were 1.5398 million tons, a 9.29% month - on - month decrease and a 16.49% year - on - year increase. International pulp mills have production cut plans, so the growth rate of pulp imports may slow down [13] - **Foreign Market Quotation Increase**: Suzano announced a price increase for eucalyptus broadleaf pulp in April 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and a $60/ton increase in Europe and the US. Canada also raised the outer - market quotation of bleached coniferous pulp in March 2025. The price increase of international pulp mills supports the bottom price of imported broadleaf pulp [16] - **Inventory Decline in Major Domestic Ports**: After reaching a record high, the domestic pulp port inventory has gradually declined. The weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9593 million tons, a 1.51% decrease from last week, with the decline narrowing by 2.79 percentage points. Except for Changshu Port, the inventory in other regions and ports decreased month - on - month [17] - **Differentiated Performance of Downstream Operating Load Rates**: Global pulp apparent consumption is stable at around 180 million tons, and the supply - demand is basically balanced in the long run. In China, waste pulp consumption accounts for 63% of total pulp consumption. As of March 27, 2025, the operating load rate of domestic broadleaf pulp increased by 1 percentage point, while that of chemimechanical pulp decreased by 3 percentage points [19][23] - **Low Gross Margin of Imported Coniferous Pulp**: In March 2025, the arrival cost was $795/ton. As of March 27, the gross margin of Silver Star pulp was - 1.28%, a 1.19 - percentage - point decrease from last week. It is expected that the gross margin of imported coniferous pulp will remain low [26][27] - **Price Decline of Coniferous and Broadleaf Pulp**: As of March 27, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 6,357 yuan/ton, a 0.97% decrease from last week; the weekly average price of imported broadleaf pulp was 4,660 yuan/ton, a 0.34% decrease. Due to the low gross margin of the downstream paper industry, high - price transactions in the pulp market are still restricted [30] 3. Future Outlook - In terms of imports, the growth rate of pulp imports may slow down due to production cut plans of international pulp mills. The domestic pulp port inventory is decreasing. Downstream paper enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm has declined, but the price increase of international pulp mills pushes up the cost of imported broadleaf pulp, so it is recommended to use an interval oscillation approach [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The low inventory level provides certain support for the apple futures market, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to adopt a bullish bias in trading strategies [1][2][46]. - In April, it is a crucial time for apple inventory reduction. After the festival, as the temperature rises and storage costs increase, the willingness of fruit farmers and merchants to sell may strengthen. With the end of the holiday, the impact of citrus fruits on apples has passed, and apple demand is expected to recover [2][20][41]. - The purchase price of new - season apples was relatively low in the early stage, which may weaken the reluctance - to - sell sentiment of fruit farmers and merchants later, facilitating the inventory reduction process [2][13][46]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In the first quarter, the main contract of apple futures, AP2505, generally showed a pattern of bottom - rebound, which can be divided into two stages. From January 2 to January 10, it was in a downward trend as the number of merchants in Shandong was small, the Spring Festival stocking volume was lower than the same period last year, and the weakening spot price drove the market down. From January 13 to the present, it has maintained a strong trend due to the low inventory level [6]. 2. Apple Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cold - Storage Inventory - As of March 27, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory of apples was about 411,260 tons, a decrease of 1.408 million tons compared with the same period last year, at a relatively low level in the past five years. The low inventory provides support for the market [1][10][45]. - The storage profit of 80 and above first - and second - grade apples in Qixia, Shandong is 0.29 yuan per catty. Merchants have less price - holding sentiment and more price - following sales, which is conducive to inventory reduction [13]. 2.2 Market Sales Performance - The demand price elasticity coefficient of apples is about - 0.34, indicating that apple demand is inelastic to price changes, and only a significant price drop can significantly increase the inventory reduction speed [16]. - As of March 27, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 31.13%, a decrease of 2.47 percentage points from the previous week and 10.28 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 51.06%. The sales in Shandong and Shaanxi are good, and 4 - month is a critical time for inventory reduction [20]. 2.3 Import Situation - China's overall import scale of fresh apples is small, accounting for about 1% of the total output from 2010 - 2020. In February 2025, the import volume was 0.14 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.71% and a year - on - year increase of 54.07%. The import volume from January to February 2025 was 0.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60.09%. It is expected that the import scale will remain at the current level [24]. 2.4 Export Situation - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In February 2025, the export volume was about 68,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.28% and a year - on - year increase of 26.64%. The first quarter is the export peak season, and it is expected that the export volume will remain high, which will help reduce inventory [27][30]. 2.5 Apple Demand - In February 2025, fruit prices rose to a high level. As of March 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was about 7.58 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than the same period last year. The impact of citrus fruits on apples has passed, and apple demand has recovered [35]. 2.6 Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption - Months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by inventory clearance, new - season apple supply, and festival demand; November and December are driven by new - fruit supply and festival effects [40]. - Months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is a critical inventory - reduction period; August faces challenges such as the impact of seasonal fruits and quality decline; October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples [41]. 3. Future Outlook - On the supply side, the low inventory level provides support for the market. On the demand side, the overall sales speed in the production area is accelerating, and the export is expected to remain at a high level. It is recommended to adopt a bullish bias in trading strategies [45][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International market: Brazilian dry weather is a concern, and there may be significant year - on - year data changes at the beginning of the new crushing season. Indian sugar production estimates vary greatly around 26 million tons, causing short - term market fluctuations. Overall supply depends on Brazil. If there are no unexpected situations in Brazil, international sugar prices will likely remain in the range of 17 - 22 cents per pound in the second quarter [2][29]. - Domestic market: As Guangxi finishes the crushing season, the domestic sugar market is entering the de - stocking phase. Sales progress has improved compared to previous years, and sugar mills face limited pressure. Imports have significantly decreased, and the control of syrups and pre - mixed powders has tightened. With the rise in temperature and the upcoming May Day holiday, sugar consumption will be boosted, so domestic sugar prices are likely to rise rather than fall, with an operating range of 5,800 - 6,400 yuan per ton [2][29][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Domestic: In the first quarter, Zhengzhou sugar prices first declined and then rebounded. In January, due to supply pressure and weak consumption, sugar prices dropped to a low of 5,725 yuan per ton on January 22. Subsequently, driven by the international market and lower - than - expected production in Guangxi, prices rebounded. After a small adjustment, they reached a high of 6,166 yuan per ton on March 21 [5]. - International: International sugar prices fluctuated in the first quarter, ranging from 16.6 to 20.1 cents per pound. They hit a low of 16.61 cents per pound on January 21, then rebounded to 19.98 cents per pound on February 25. After a sharp drop due to large - scale contract deliveries in March, prices recovered to a high of 20.09 cents per pound [5]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - Brazil: The 2024/25 crushing season in Brazil has basically ended. As of March 1, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region was 39.822 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.58%. The current focus is on the weather in the central - southern region. Drought in March has raised concerns about sugarcane yield. Forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season's sugarcane crushing volume vary widely, from 59 million tons to 63 million tons [8][11]. - India: There are significant differences in the estimated sugar production for the 2024/25 crushing season. The NFCSF revised the estimate to 25.9 million tons, while the ISMA estimated 26.4 million tons after adjusting for ethanol production. The production in major sugar - producing states has declined. Whether India can export or even import sugar depends on whether the production reaches 26 million tons, which will affect short - term market fluctuations [14][15][16]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - Production: The estimated domestic sugar production for the 2024/25 crushing season has been revised down by 30 - 400,000 tons compared to the beginning of the season, mainly due to lower - than - expected production in Guangxi. As Guangxi is almost finished with the crushing season, the domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking phase in April [20]. - Sales: As of the end of February 2025, sugar production was 9.7161 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.25%. Cumulative sugar sales were 4.7516 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.75%. The cumulative sales rate was 48.9%, 1.36 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The expected sugar sales volume in March is between 900,000 and 1 million tons, which supports spot sugar prices [22]. - Imports: In February 2025, China imported 20,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 470,000 tons. From January to February, cumulative sugar imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 million tons. The import of syrups and pre - mixed powders also decreased. With the suspension of imports from Thailand and Vietnam, future imports are expected to decline significantly [26][27]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - Conclusion: International sugar prices will likely remain volatile in the short term, and domestic sugar prices are likely to rise. - Operational Suggestions: Adopt a bullish approach for Zhengzhou sugar futures [29][30][31].

行情方面，股市成交额持续维持底量，市场降低至接近 1 万亿水平。在量 价配合上，股市整体预期回落。分化来看，不断有保险资金举牌银行股，高股 息股票延续被长期资金持有。中小盘炒作开始清淡，涨停板家数显著减少。随 着业绩披露，以及股市新规执行，风险暴露的上市公司家数预期增多。市场谨 慎分化。股指 IM 空单持有。 操作建议：股指空单轻仓 国债：利率回落，国债多单轻仓 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：夏豪杰 从业资格号：F0275768 投资咨询号：Z0003021 电话：0755-23510053 邮箱：15051@guosen.com.cn 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货研究咨询部日常报告 晨会纪要 原油：OPEC+进一步减产成疑 油价持续下跌 晨会纪要 20250328 2020 年 02 月 27 日 2025 年 3 月 28 日 股指：股市缩量，股指空单轻仓 分析师助理：张俊峰 从业资格号：F03115138 电话：021-55007766-305163 邮箱：15721 @guosen.com.cn 独立性申明： 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分 ...