Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in the short term due to stricter safety inspections and planned shutdowns of some mines. The import volume of coking coal is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The demand for coking coal is under pressure as coke enterprises' production is restricted. The coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended. [17][22][62] - The supply of coke is gradually tightening due to the approaching military parade and the implementation of production restrictions in some regions. The demand for coke is high in the short term but is expected to face production restrictions in the future. The coke futures market is under pressure, and short - term operations are recommended. [42][58][62] Summary by Directory 1. Double - Coking Market Review - It presents the weekly market review of double - coking main contracts, but specific review content is not detailed in the provided text. [8] 2. Coking Coal Fundamental Overview Coking Coal Production - In July, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons. From January to July, the output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. As of August 29, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 75.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17%. The supply of coking coal remains tight in the short term. [17] Coking Coal Import - From January to July 2025, China imported 62.4453 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 7.98%. The monthly import volume of US coking coal has been zero, and the import volume of Australian coal has increased slightly year - on - year but accounts for a relatively small proportion. Since August, the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a high level, and the import volume of coking coal is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. [22] Port Inventory - The total coking coal inventory of six ports was 2.7535 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,600 tons. [25] Coke Enterprise Inventory - The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coke enterprises was 8.1987 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,700 tons. Coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is at a relatively high level, and procurement has become more cautious. [30] Steel Mill Inventory - The coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 8.1185 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand, and the in - plant coking coal inventory remains flat. [33] 3. Coke Fundamental Overview Coke Supply - In July, China's coke output was 41.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 291.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of sample coke enterprises was 72.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47%. Coke supply is gradually tightening. [37][42] Coke Enterprise Inventory - As of this Friday, the total coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 398,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons. The real demand of blast furnaces for raw materials is at a high level, and downstream procurement is based on demand. Inventory has stopped decreasing and has slightly accumulated week - on - week. [46] Port Inventory - As of this Friday, the total port coke inventory was 2.1209 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,300 tons. Port inventory fluctuates within a narrow range. [50] Steel Mill Inventory - The coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 610,070 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,800 tons. Blast furnace operation remains at a high level, and the momentum for inventory increase is slowing down. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand. [53] Coke Demand - From January to July 2025, the national pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. In July, the pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons. [58] 4. Double - Coking Future Outlook - For coking coal, the supply is tight in the short term, and the demand is under pressure. The futures market fluctuates at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended. For coke, the supply is tightening, and the demand is expected to face production restrictions in the future. The futures market is under pressure, and short - term operations are recommended. [62]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market continues to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the stabilization of demand. The operation suggestion is to wait and see for the time being [35] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main pulp futures contract SP2511 searched for the bottom downward, rebounded slightly on Friday, and the overall trend was weak [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of August 28, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,677 yuan/ton, down 1.13% from last week, and the decline rate increased by 0.49 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,190 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from last week, changing from rising to falling [11] - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to July**: In July 2025, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7652 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 613.56 US dollars/ton. From January to July, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 6.5% and 3.4% respectively compared with the same period last year [16] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of August 28, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0468 million tons, down 0.14% from last week, and the decline rate narrowed by 1.45 percentage points [19][35] - **European Commodity Chemical Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July**: In July 2025, the consumption of European chemical pulp was 814,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.07%; the inventory of European chemical pulp was 683,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.65%. The inventory days were 26 days, an increase of 3 days compared with the same period last year [23] - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange**: No specific analysis content provided - **Different Performance of Operating Rates of Downstream Pulp Types**: Wastepaper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of August 28, the weekly operating load rate of double copper paper increased by 1.31 percentage points; the weekly operating load rate of double offset paper increased by 0.17 percentage points; the operating load rate of white cardboard decreased by 1.56 percentage points compared with last week; the operating load rate of household paper decreased by 0.32 percentage points compared with last week [28] 3. Outlook for the Future - The inventory of major Chinese regions and ports decreased slightly, and the decline rate narrowed. The external quotation of imported hardwood pulp has a rising expectation, and some spot traders in some regions have a certain sentiment of supporting prices due to cost pressure. However, the profit improvement of downstream paper mills is poor, the acceptance of high prices is limited, and they mainly purchase at low prices. The pulp market transaction is not prosperous, and the spot price is slightly weak. The recent market has been running weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the stabilization of demand and wait and see for the time being [35]

Report Title - High-level operation, awaiting guidance from the new season of apples —— Guoxin Futures Apple Weekly Report, August 31, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The apple futures main contract AP2510 rose strongly this week. Cold storage inventory is lower than the same period last year, with concentrated supply in Shandong. The destocking rate is high and the export volume in July increased month-on-month. New season apple bagging numbers are slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase price of early-maturing apples in the northwest is higher than last year, which may support the opening price of late-maturing Red Fuji. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the operation suggestion is to take a bullish view on the fluctuations [8][36] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the apple futures main contract AP2510 rose strongly [8] 2. Supply-side Situation - As of August 28, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apples in the country were 353,500 tons, the lowest in the past five years. Shandong had 236,200 tons and Shaanxi had 82,400 tons [13] 3. Demand-side Situation - As of August 28, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 2.68%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.38 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 2.22 percentage points, with a destocking rate of 95.79%. In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 53,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 44.95% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.39%. The export volume is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. As of August 29, the mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable, but the number of cold storage merchants was small, the transaction was average, and the shipment speed was slow [18][21][32] 4. Outlook for the Future - Pay attention to the production performance of the new season of apples. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the operation suggestion is to take a bullish view on the fluctuations [36]

港口库存达历史高位水平 甲醇震荡走弱 --国信期货甲醇周报 1 行情回顾 2 甲醇基本面分析 3 后市展望 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 甲醇期现货价格及价差走势 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 2024-01-01 2024-01-22 2024-02-12 2024-03-04 2024-03-25 2024-04-15 2024-05-06 2024-05-27 2024-06-17 2024-07-08 2024-07-29 2024-08-19 2024-09-09 2024-09-30 2024-10-21 2024-11-11 2024-12-02 2024-12-23 2025-01-13 2025-02-03 2025-02-24 2025-03-17 2025-04-07 2025-04-28 2025-05-19 2025-06-09 2025-06-30 2025-07-21 2025-08-11 港口基差 市场价:甲 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated August 31, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core View - The report states that the market is at the bottom range and will continue to fluctuate. The US market anticipates Fed policy easing with over 80% probability of a September rate - cut. In China, macro - policies will continue to exert force. The refined nickel market has a supply surplus, the nickel ore market is calm with ample supply, the nickel sulfate price is weak, and the stainless - steel market has a slightly improved profit and demand expectation but weak reality and slow de - stocking. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [2][36] Group 3: Market Review - This part shows the trend of the main price contracts of the domestic and foreign nickel futures markets through a chart of nickel futures closing prices (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [7][8] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Upstream - It presents the China's nickel ore port inventory through a chart of China's imported nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines on a monthly basis, with the inventory range from 0 to 6 million tons [12][13] Midstream - **Electrolytic nickel price**: A chart shows the price of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [15][16] - **Nickel sulfate price**: A chart shows the average price of nickel sulfate in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [17][18] - **Ferronickel import volume and price**: Charts show China's monthly ferronickel import volume (ranging from 0 to 1 million tons) and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel (ranging from 0 to 1,800 yuan/nickel) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025 [19][20] Downstream - **Stainless - steel price**: A chart shows the closing price of stainless - steel futures (continuous) from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Stainless - steel futures positions**: A chart shows the stainless - steel futures positions from 0 to 400,000 lots [23][24] - **Wuxi stainless - steel inventory**: Charts show the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel inventory, both ranging from 0 to 800,000 tons [25][26] - **Power and energy - storage battery production**: Charts show the monthly production of power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production of power and energy - storage batteries in China, both ranging from 0 to 140,000 MWh [28][29] - **New - energy vehicle production**: A chart shows the monthly production of new - energy vehicles in China, ranging from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [30][31] Group 5: Future Outlook - In the US, on August 29, Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the September meeting and expected further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. In China, the Politburo meeting on July 30 stated that macro - policies should continue to exert force. The Shanghai nickel market showed a fluctuating upward trend this week. The refined nickel market has a supply surplus, the nickel ore market is calm with ample supply, the nickel sulfate price is weak, and the stainless - steel market has a slightly improved profit and demand expectation but weak reality and slow de - stocking. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the international oil and fat market declined significantly, with domestic oils following suit. The bullish sentiment in the oil market cooled, and bulls left the market. In the protein meal market, CBOT soybeans oscillated at a high level, while the domestic continuous meal market weakened. The supply concerns for soybean meal in the long - term have slightly eased [6][72]. - Looking forward to the future, in the protein meal market, the US soybean production area faces low - temperature and drought conditions, and the domestic oil mills' operating rate remains high with slow inventory reduction. In the oil market, international crude oil drags down US soybean oil, and palm oil is under pressure. The domestic oil market may further decline in the short term [137]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans oscillated at a high level this week. After a decline on Monday, they oscillated narrowly in the following days. The good - rate of US soybeans continued to rise, increasing the expectation of a bumper harvest and pressuring the market. The new - year export sales of US soybeans reached a new high, but the absence of Chinese buyers restricted the increase. The domestic continuous meal market weakened, with the opening rate of oil mills slightly increasing and soybean meal inventory rising steadily. Under the pressure of oil mills to urge提货 at the end of the month, the trading was weak, and bulls left the market [6]. 3.1.2 US Soybean Export - As of the week ending August 21, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 382,806 tons. The total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season has reached 96.6% of the revised annual export target, with a year - on - year increase of 11.5% [11]. 3.1.3 North American Market - US Soybean Planting Progress - As of August 24, 2025, the average good - rate of US soybeans in 18 states was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4% [22]. 3.1.4 North American Weather - In the Midwest, sporadic heavy rains maintained local excessive soil moisture, while dry weather in many other areas led to a decline in surface soil moisture. In the west, hot and dry weather was conducive to crop maturity. In the prairie region, precipitation was limited, and the temperature varied widely [26][32]. 3.1.5 Domestic and International Oilseed Markets - The low - temperature weather in the Midwest will continue until the end of August and early September. A bulk carrier rented by Bunge is expected to transport Argentine soybean meal to China. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts have been adjusted. China needs to purchase a large amount of soybeans by the end of this year, but it faces challenges. The soybean processing margins in South America have declined, and the processing volume forecasts in Argentina have been adjusted [35][36][38]. 3.1.6 Soybean - Port Inventory and Pressing Profit - This week, the domestic spot and futures pressing profits declined. As of the end of this week, the inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 6.8244 million tons, and it is expected to be 5.04 million tons by the end of next week [47]. 3.1.7 Soybean - Import Cost and Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans for November shipment is 4,665 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans is 4,058 yuan/ton. The Brazilian premium has slightly declined this week [50]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal - Soybean Operating Rate and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the end of the 34th week (August 23), the average operating rate of domestic major soybean oil mills was 64.78%, an increase of 0.24% from last week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.058 million tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from last week [55]. 3.1.9 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Weekly Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 34th week was 1.8992 million tons, slightly higher than that of last week [59]. 3.1.10 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Operating Rate and Pressing Volume - As of the end of the 34th week, the operating rate of domestic major imported rapeseed processing enterprises was 11.01%, a decrease of 0.98% from last week. The pressing volume of imported rapeseed was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from last week [65]. 3.2 Fats and Oils Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Trends - This week, international oils declined significantly. US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil fell from last week's highs. The EPA's approval of small refineries' exemption applications for bio - fuel blending and the decline of international crude oil led to the decline of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil was also dragged down, and domestic oils followed the international market down [72]. 3.2.2 International Oil Information - From August 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports increased year - on - year. Brazil has adjusted the bio - diesel blending ratio, and the demand for bio - diesel has changed. Malaysia is seeking to exempt palm kernel oil from the SST tax, and Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products from September [75][76][77]. 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Weather - Typhoon Kajiki brought abundant rainfall to the Philippines and surrounding areas, and Thailand also had monsoon rainfall. The temperature was close to normal [83]. 3.2.4 Three Major Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Price Trends - The prices of the three major vegetable oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) declined this week, with the overall trend of rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil price difference rebounded from a low level [110]. 3.2.5 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 34th week, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.5924 million tons, a decrease of 23,500 tons from last week. The inventory of soybean oil increased, while that of palm oil and rapeseed oil decreased [94]. 3.2.6 Oil Basis Analysis - The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends. The soybean - palm oil price difference rebounded slightly, and the oil - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseeds also rebounded slightly [110][114]. 3.2.7 Arbitrage Relationships - The oil - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseeds rebounded slightly this week. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated narrowly. The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal continued to decline, the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil rebounded slightly, and the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil declined slightly [114][120][123]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Technical Analysis - For the main contracts, the short - term indicators of soybean meal are bearish, while the medium - and long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term indicators of rapeseed meal are bearish, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term indicators of soybean oil are bearish, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term indicators of palm oil are entangled, and the medium - and long - term indicators are bullish. The short - term indicators of rapeseed oil are entangled, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled [136]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the protein meal market, the US soybean production area faces low - temperature and drought, and the domestic oil mills' operating rate remains high. In the oil market, international crude oil drags down US soybean oil, and palm oil is under pressure. The domestic oil market may further decline in the short term [137].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of increasing theoretical pig出栏量 in the later stage remains unchanged. Starting from September, the month - on - month growth rate of出栏量 will increase, and the supply increment may exceed the seasonal performance of consumption. The industry is expected to enter the seasonal weight - gain stage in September, but the impact on supply will be limited due to the high level of pig出栏量. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound, but overall, the pig supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose, and the operation idea is to be bearish with oscillations [1][18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In August, the live pig spot price failed to continue the rebound at the end of July. It oscillated downward and hit a new low under the background of increased出栏 by the breeding side and weak consumption. The futures showed a trend of first rebounding and then falling. The near - month LH09 contract was most affected by the spot price decline and the premium on the futures, thus performing the weakest [3] 2. Pig Supply - Demand Analysis 2.1 Sow Inventory and Piglet出栏 Data Indicate Continued Increase in出栏 - The national sow inventory reached a low of 39.86 million in May 2024, then rebounded to a high of 40.8 million in November 2024, with an increase of 2.4% from the low to the high. By June 2025, it was 40.42 million, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. The potential supply of commercial pigs from February to September 2025 will maintain an increasing pattern. The number of piglets born by sample enterprises has generally been increasing since November 2024. Therefore, the theoretical出栏量 will continue to increase [5] 2.2 Feed Sales Data Verify the Increase in Pig Inventory - From October 2024 to January 2025, the sales of piglet feed and nursery feed decreased seasonally, but the decline was significantly lower than in previous years, indicating that piglets were less damaged in winter. The sales of finishing pig feed increased significantly month - on - month in March 2025, earlier than in previous years. The month - on - month increase in finishing pig feed sales from June to July 2025 was similar to that of last year, meaning that the potential出栏 increase in September will be similar to the same period last year [8] 2.3 Secondary Fattening is Restrained, Focus on the Industry's Weight - Gain Rhythm - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in 16 key provinces peaked in May and declined, with the decline accelerating from June to August, reaching the lowest level in the past 5 years. The decline was due to the decrease in the feed - to - meat ratio after the temperature rose and the government's policy guidance. Group pig出栏 showed a stable downward trend, while the average weight of散户出栏 increased. After August, the industry usually enters the stage of seasonally increasing the average出栏 weight, and there is room for the industry's average weight to increase [10] 2.4 Consumption Performance is Average, with Limited Boost to the Market - The national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with last year, and the daily slaughter volume in August increased significantly compared with July, matching the increase in出栏 indicated by the piglet birth data 6 months ago. The fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises has been higher than last year for most of the time in 2025, but it has declined since July, indicating that the overall consumption increment is not obvious. The consumption in August 2025 was weak, and the consumption pressure from September to October will be greater than in previous years [12] 2.5 Feed Costs Decrease, but Pig Price Decline Compresses Profits - Since May 2024, domestic pigs have maintained a profitable state for nearly 14 months. Since August, the pig price has continued to decline, and the national average weight is close to the industry average cost. Although the cost has decreased, the low pig price has worsened the breeding profit [15] 3. Conclusion and Market Outlook - The pattern of increasing theoretical pig出栏量 in the later stage remains unchanged. Starting from September, the month - on - month growth rate of出栏量 will increase, and the supply increment may exceed the seasonal performance of consumption. The industry is expected to enter the seasonal weight - gain stage in September, but the impact on supply will be limited due to the high level of pig出栏量. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound, but overall, the pig supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose, and the operation idea is to be bearish with oscillations [1][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term asphalt market is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern, and prices may continue to be under pressure, considering factors such as loose supply - demand, weak costs, and bearish technical indicators [63] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The main contract of asphalt futures, BU2510, fluctuated downward with a range decline of 0.86% and a range amplitude of 1.80% [6] - Information on Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt basis, Shandong - South China heavy - traffic asphalt spread, and Shandong - Northeast heavy - traffic asphalt spread is presented, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the provided text [9][12][16] 2. Asphalt Fundamentals - **Production Profits**: Shandong refineries' theoretical asphalt production profit was - 346.19 yuan/ton (after deductions for diluted asphalt processing), up 187.28 yuan/ton month - on - month; Hebei refineries' was - 306.66 yuan/ton, up 213.66 yuan/ton month - on - month; Jiangsu's major refineries had a profit of 489.31 yuan/ton [22] - **Price Spreads**: On August 15, the spread between the closing price of the BU main contract and the SC*6.6 main contract was 251.42 yuan/ton, down 6.1 yuan/ton from August 8. On August 14, the spread between the closing price of the BU main contract and the WTI closing price was 158.67 yuan/ton, down 8.79 yuan/ton from August 7 [24][26] - **开工率 and Output**: China's heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate was 32.9%, up 1.2% month - on - month and 6.4% year - on - year. Weekly output was 58.8 tons, up 5.38% month - on - month and 27.00% year - on - year. Shandong's asphalt operating rate was 36.5%, up 2% month - on - month and 4.3% year - on - year, and its weekly output was 23.1 tons, up 7.22% month - on - month and 8.18% year - on - year [29][32][40] - **Output by Ownership**: Weekly output of local refineries was 33.80 tons, up 7.30% month - on - month; CNPC's was 12.00 tons, up 11.11% month - on - month; Sinopec's was 10.30 tons, down 4.63% month - on - month; CNOOC's remained flat [35] - **Demand**: The operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 29.7%, up 2.2% month - on - month and down 0.22% year - on - year; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt was 30.5%, up 1.5% month - on - month and 7.77% year - on - year [44] - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of 104 sample asphalt enterprises was 185.3 tons, down 1.28% month - on - month. The weekly in - factory inventory of 54 sample enterprises was 75.3 tons, up 4.29% month - on - month. In Shandong, the in - factory inventory of 54 sample enterprises was 28.2 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month and down 40.88% year - on - year, and the social inventory of 70 sample enterprises was 40.1 tons, down 0.50% month - on - month and 35.01% year - on - year [47][49] - **Weather Forecast**: There were forecasts of moderate - to - heavy rain in various parts of China in the next three days [53] 3. Market Outlook - **Supply**: With refineries maintaining stable production, supply is expected to increase next week, and supply pressure may continue to accumulate [62] - **Demand**: The market remains weak with obvious seasonal off - peak characteristics. Although there is a slight improvement in local operations, overall demand recovery is insufficient. Road construction projects will be hindered by heavy rain or high temperatures in the next week, suppressing short - term demand [62] - **Inventory**: The current supply - demand pattern is loose. Factory inventories have significantly increased while social inventories have slightly decreased, indicating low terminal pick - up enthusiasm and poor resource transfer to downstream, with supply pressure shifting to manufacturers [62] - **Cost**: Crude oil prices continued to fall, weakening the bottom support for asphalt prices [62] - **Technical Analysis**: The price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 lacks trend - driving momentum, with a bearish arrangement on the technical chart and obvious suppression from the upper moving averages, continuing the downward trend [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Urea Futures Main Contract Trend**: From August 11th to 14th, the main contract UR2601 of urea futures oscillated downward, with an interval decline of 0.80% and an interval amplitude of 2.72% [7]. - **Urea Futures Basis Situation**: On August 13th, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared to last Wednesday, and it was at a low level compared to the past five years [11]. 3.2 Urea Fundamental Analysis Supply - side - **Urea Production Enterprise Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years [16]. - **Urea Plant Weekly Maintenance Loss**: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea plants was 19.19 tons, a 4.48% decrease compared to the previous period and a 21.83% decrease year - on - year [18]. - **Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea**: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 1.1 million tons, a 2.8% increase compared to the previous period; the weekly output of urea produced from pipeline fertilizer - using gas is 290,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period. The supply pattern remains loose [20]. Demand - side - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Operating Rate**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024 [23]. - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - plant Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 826,500 tons, a 3.26% increase compared to the previous period and a 12.68% increase compared to 2024 [25]. - **Melamine Operating Rate**: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [29]. Inventory - side - **Urea Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period [32]. Cost - side - **Synthetic Ammonia Price**: On August 14th, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase compared to August 7th [38]. - **Coal Market Operation**: With the restorative rebound of the low - end price of anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea plants has strengthened. Currently, the aggregated price of Yangquan anthracite fine coal is 770 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the aggregated price of Jincheng anthracite washed small coal is 900 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged compared to the previous period [40]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Date | Beginning Inventory (kt) | Production (kt) | Total Supply (kt) | Consumption (kt) | Export (kt) | Total Demand (kt) | Ending Inventory (kt) | Supply - Demand Ratio (%) | Price (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 10E | 1437 | 6200 | 7638 | 5200 | 500 | 5700 | 603 | 134 | 1800 | | 2025 - 09E | 1037 | 6300 | 7338 | 4900 | 1000 | 5900 | 1437 | 124.37 | 1750 | | 2025 - 08E | 757 | 6270 | 7028 | 4570 | 1100 | 5670 | 1037 | 123.95 | 1830 | | 2025 July | 931 | 6093 | 7025 | 5890 | 700 | 6590 | 1757 | 106.6 | 1817.22 | | 2025 June | 840 | 6146 | 6986.03 | 6159 | 66.24 | 6225.24 | 931 | 112.22 | 1838.8 | | 2025 May | 865 | 6366 | 7231.22 | 6391.2 | 2.44 | 6393.64 | 840 | 113.1 | 1912.94 | | 2025 April | 805 | 6004 | 6809.42 | 5944.4 | 2.25 | 5946.65 | 865 | 114.51 | 1894.95 | | 2025 March | 1266 | 6219 | 7485.04 | 6680 | 2.3 | 6682.3 | 805 | 112.01 | 1867.78 | | 2025 February | 1499 | 5551 | 7050.34 | 5784.3 | 1.36 | 5785.66 | 1266 | 121.86 | 1776.73 | | 2025 January | 1378 | 5719 | 7097.25 | 5598.2 | 2.65 | 5600.85 | 1499 | 126.72 | 1695.43 | | 2024 December | 1191 | 5463 | 6654.24 | 5275.7 | 2.27 | 5277.97 | 1378 | 126.08 | 1819.64 | | 2024 November | 1135 | 5421 | 6556.1 | 5365 | 2.22 | 5367.22 | 1191 | 122.15 | 1868.4 | | 2024 October | 903 | 5841 | 6744.08 | 5600 | 3.5 | 5612.5 | 1135 | 120.16 | 1900.26 | [44] 3.3 Future Outlook - **Supply - side**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years. Driven by the continuous efforts of the supply - guarantee policy and the release of the efficiency of previous technological improvements, it has become normal for production enterprises to operate at high loads, and the overall supply of urea will continue the loose pattern. In the short term, the high - supply situation is unlikely to change significantly [49]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, it is the traditional off - season for demand. The downstream market generally has a wait - and - see attitude, mainly following up with rigid demand, and has no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024; the panel industry is still in the traditional off - season, and the average operating load rate of melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [49]. - **Inventory - side**: The overall inventory pressure still exists. Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; with the orderly collection of goods at the port, the current port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period. As the preparation and production of autumn fertilizers gradually start, it is expected that the enterprise inventory will first increase and then decrease [49]. - **Cost - side**: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with the increase or decrease of demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In general, the current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The extension of the China-US trade tariff truce has alleviated external trade frictions and boosted domestic market sentiment. The steel mills maintain high production enthusiasm due to good profits, and the steel output remains stable in the short - term despite the frequent news of production restrictions. The supply - demand relationship of building materials is weakening, and contradictions are starting to accumulate. The futures price fluctuates with raw materials and faces upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [7][72][73] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market 3.1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data shows that in July, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and from January to July, it increased by 3.8% year - on - year. From January to July, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also declined. National fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.6% year - on - year from January to July, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year. Policy information indicates that the US extended the tariff truce with China by 90 days, which alleviated trade frictions and boosted domestic market sentiment [7] 3.1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific content provided 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Price Ratio, and Basis 3.2.1 Macro - Currency Price - No specific content provided 3.2.2 Price Ratio - Domestic and Overseas - No specific content provided 3.2.3 Price Ratio - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices of various steel - related products have different trends. For example, the price of rebar HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3,320 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.19%, a monthly change of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 6.07% [22] 3.2.4 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) of rebar fluctuates. For example, on August 14, 2025, the futures main contract was 3189 yuan/ton, the cheapest deliverable was 3300 yuan/ton, and the basis was 111 yuan/ton [26] 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No specific content provided 3.3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (for Various Steel Products) - No specific content provided 3.3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - No specific content provided 3.3.4 Blast Furnace Operation Rate - No specific content provided 3.3.5 Electric Furnace Operation Rate - No specific content provided 3.3.6 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No specific content provided 3.3.7 Weekly Steel Output - On August 15, 2025, the output of steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, and medium - thick plate) was 785.44 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.125530207 and a month - on - month increase of 0.002911282 [46] 3.3.8 Weekly Rebar Output - On August 15, 2025, the weekly rebar output was 220.45 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.003300479 and a year - on - year increase of 0.325058604 [50] 3.3.9 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - On August 15, 2025, the steel mill inventory of steel products was 503.88 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.08458688 and a month - on - month increase of 0.022151899 [53] 3.3.10 Social Inventory of Steel Products - No specific content provided 3.3.11 Social Inventory of Rebar - No specific content provided 3.3.12 Building Materials Transactions - No specific content provided 3.3.13 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - No specific content provided 3.3.14 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - No specific content provided 3.3.15 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions - No specific content provided 3.4 Part 4: Outlook for the Future - The extension of the China - US trade tariff truce has alleviated external trade frictions. In terms of fundamentals, steel mills have high production enthusiasm due to good profits, and the steel output remains stable in the short - term. This week, the supply of five major steel products increased by 0.3% week - on - week, with the rebar output decreasing by 0.3% week - on - week. In terms of demand, the consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.7% this week, with the building materials consumption decreasing by 7.6% week - on - week and the plate consumption increasing by 5.6% week - on - week. The social inventory of steel products increased week - on - week, mainly due to rebar. The supply of raw materials is still subject to disturbances, and the price fluctuations are increasing. The supply - demand relationship of building materials is weakening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [72][73]