Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of industrial silicon and polysilicon prices is insufficient. The industrial silicon market may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, and the polysilicon market may experience short - term adjustments [1]. Summaries by Related Content Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.68% to 9,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.58% to 9,650 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 0.57% to 8,695 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon: N - type dense material decreased by 2.20% to 44.5 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material decreased by 1.60% to 46 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material decreased by 1.14% to 43.5 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 43 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 4.05% to 43,850 yuan/ton [1]. - Other products: Some silicon wafer prices decreased significantly, while battery and component prices remained mostly unchanged. Organic silicon prices showed slight changes, with DMC increasing by 0.46% to 10,850 yuan/ton [1]. Market Fundamentals - Industrial silicon supply: Northern large - scale factories have production cuts with no resumption news, and the southwest production area is about to enter the wet season with a slow resumption of production. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the supply may decrease [1]. - Industrial silicon demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, with some planned to resume production in July. The organic silicon industry has strong intentions to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - Polysilicon supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production cuts, with some new capacity to be put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, approaching 110,000 tons in July [1]. - Polysilicon demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Although the trading atmosphere has improved, the terminal market is still weak due to the over - drawn demand in the first half of the year [1]. Industry News - Shanxi Province Energy Bureau plans to abolish 352,052 kilowatts of new energy projects, including photovoltaic and wind power projects, to optimize grid access and resource allocation [1]. - Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Development and Reform Commission abolished 449.3 MW of new energy projects in 9 projects to optimize resource allocation and improve project construction quality and efficiency [1].

| G | M | E | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 新 | 单 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the contradictions in the crude oil market are not prominent, and the oil price is in a volatile and oscillating process. Seasonal demand supports the prices of refined oil and crude oil, and the expectations of tariff negotiations and geopolitical situations are relatively relaxed, making it difficult to determine the direction of oil prices. In the medium and long term, the view in the semi - annual report is maintained, with a cautious bullish outlook. The improvement of macro and policy expectations, including the successful passage of the US tax - cut bill and China's "anti - involution" policy, boosts the sentiment of commodity bulls. Although the crude oil market is still in the OPEC+ production - increasing cycle, the new round of fiscal expansion brought by the tax - cut bill may support the long - term economic improvement, and it may be better to look for opportunities to go long on dips [5][67]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Range - bound and Volatility Regression**: After the geopolitical conflict subsided, crude oil trading returned to fundamental and macro factors. The macro factors were positive while the fundamental factors were negative, resulting in a three - week oscillating process with a volatility regression. As of July 17, the WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $66.31 per barrel, Brent crude oil at $69.65 per barrel, and the SC crude oil futures active contract at 516.8 yuan per barrel [5][10]. - **Continued Oscillation of Calendar Spreads**: The calendar spreads of crude oil continued to oscillate [11]. - **Brent Fund Net Long Positions Returned to a Neutral to High Level**: As of the week ending July 8, the WTI fund net long positions were 145,697 lots, a decrease of 28,936 lots from the previous week. The Brent fund net long positions were 217,832 lots, an increase of 51,322 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, the net long positions of gasoline increased by 2,676 lots, diesel by 12,369 lots, and heating oil by 6,534 lots [16]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: The production - increasing expectations are gradually being realized. At the July 5 meeting, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August and is expected to approve another significant production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September. By then, the voluntarily cut production of about 2.2 million barrels per day by OPEC+ will be fully restored. In June, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.235 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day. The main contributor to the increase was Saudi Arabia, with a month - on - month increase of 173,000 barrels per day, while Iran's production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day [20]. - **United States**: The daily crude oil production is oscillating at a high level. As of the week ending July 11, the weekly US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.407 million barrels per day. The Trump administration's new bill aims to increase shale oil production in the long term, but the short - term willingness to increase production is still restricted [26]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: The overall demand is declining, and there is a risk of a weak peak season. As of the week ending July 11, the demand for refined oil products decreased. The demand for gasoline was 8.489 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 670,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 294,000 barrels per day; the demand for distillates was 3.423 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 245,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 162,000 barrels per day; the demand for jet fuel was 1.627 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 298,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 193,000 barrels per day. The total demand for petroleum products was 19.184 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.679 million barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 246,000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points; the crude oil processing volume was 16.849 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 157,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 79,000 barrels per day [30][39]. - **China**: Consumption improved in June, but the demand outlook for the second half of the year is dull. In June, the crude oil processing volume was 62.245 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.927 million tons, mainly due to the significant increase in the operation rate of major refineries. In the second half of the year, the operation rate of domestic refineries is expected to remain at a relatively low level, affected by tax policy adjustments and the energy demand transformation [43]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: Crude oil inventory is being converted into refined oil inventory. The US crude oil inventory decreased slightly and is currently at a relatively low level in the past five years. As of the week ending July 11, the US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 422.162 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.859 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 18.064 million barrels. The SPR inventory was 402.703 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 300,000 barrels. The refined oil inventory increased overall, with the distillate inventory still at a five - year low [50][55]. - **OECD**: The demand was good in June, and the OECD inventory decreased slightly. In June 2025, the global crude oil supply was 104.9 million barrels per day, the demand was 104.43 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 470,000 barrels per day. The OECD inventory decreased to 2.796 billion barrels at the end of June, a month - on - month decrease of 15 million barrels [62]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The market has been oscillating with a volatility regression in the past three weeks. In the short term, the oil price is oscillating, and in the medium and long term, it is cautiously bullish. The improvement of macro and policy expectations may support the long - term economic improvement, and it may be better to look for opportunities to go long on dips in the crude oil market [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The passage of the US stable - coin related bill and the permission for pension funds to invest in gold and digital currencies, along with the increased probability of the Fed's interest rate cuts, combined with global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks, may make precious metal prices prone to rising and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pull - backs [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing price was 770.92, trading volume was 375362.00, and open interest was 203084.00 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, the closing price decreased by 1.28, and the trading volume increased by 115912.00 [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: Trading volume was 31414.00, and open interest was 208770.00 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, the trading volume increased by 4344.00, and the open interest decreased by 416.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing price was 9109.00 (yuan/kg), trading volume was 906865.00, and open interest was 438247.00 for the futures active contract on 2025 - 07 - 17. The inventory was 1217085.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 14.00, the trading volume increased by 142149.00, and the open interest increased by 7726.00 [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: Trading volume was 281830.00, and open interest was 3331190.00 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, the trading volume decreased by 201968.00, and the open interest decreased by 3094.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures Active Contract**: Closing price was 3345.40, trading volume was 158850.00, and open interest was 292651.00 on 2025 - 07 - 17. The inventory was 37143884.29 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous day, the closing price decreased by 8.80, the trading volume decreased by 73659.00, and the open interest decreased by 4040.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: Price was 3318.50 (USD/ounce) on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, it decreased by 5.30 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures Active Contract**: Closing price was 38.44, trading volume was 44163.00, and open interest was 128633.00 on 2025 - 07 - 17. The inventory was 496688540.88 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 0.31, the trading volume decreased by 11547.00, and the open interest increased by 322.00 [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: Price was 37.76 (USD/ounce) on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, it decreased by 0.12 [1]. Price Ratios - The ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 84.69 on 2025 - 07 - 17, decreasing by 0.17 compared with the previous day [1]. - The ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 87.04 on 2025 - 07 - 17, decreasing by 0.94 compared with the previous day [1]. - The ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 87.90 on 2025 - 07 - 17, increasing by 0.14 compared with the previous day [1]. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 516.80 (yuan/barrel), ICE Brent crude oil was 68.71 (USD/barrel), and NYMEX crude oil was 66.31 (USD/barrel) on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, INE crude oil decreased by 0.60, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 0.94, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.33 [1]. - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 77840.00 (yuan/ton), LME copper spot was 9678.00 (USD/ton), Shanghai rebar was 3133.00 (yuan/ton), and Dalian iron ore was 785.50 (yuan/ton) on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, Shanghai copper futures decreased by 140.00, LME copper spot increased by 41.00, Shanghai rebar increased by 27.00, and Dalian iron ore increased by 12.50 [1]. - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai Inter - Bank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.46, SHIBOR one - year was 1.62, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.4700, US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0100, and US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.4300 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 0.00, SHIBOR one - year remained unchanged, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield increased by 0.01, US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield increased by 0.03, and US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate increased by 0.02 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.6419, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1461, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.3207 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, the US dollar index increased by 0.36, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate decreased by 0.01, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate increased by 0.01 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3516.8255, the S&P 500 was 6263.7000, the UK FTSE 100 was 8972.6400, the French CAC40 was 7822.0000, the German DAX was 24370.9300, the Nikkei 225 was 39901.1900, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3192.2900 on 2025 - 07 - 17. Compared with the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 13.05, the S&P 500 increased by 34.10, the UK FTSE 100 increased by 105.62, the French CAC40 increased by 99.91, the German DAX increased by 361.55, the Nikkei 225 increased by 237.79, and the South Korean Composite Index increased by 5.91 [1]. Important Information - The US House of Representatives passed a stable - coin related bill and will allow pension funds to invest in gold, digital currencies, etc.; the import tariff pushed up commodity prices, leading to a rise in the US consumer - end inflation CPI annual rate in June. However, since the US producer - end inflation PPI annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, the expectation of Powell's early departure and the Fed's interest rate cuts increased, raising the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2%. The eurozone and German (French) manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4/49 (47.8), continuing to rise (lower than expected and the previous value). The eurozone (German) consumer price index CPI annual rate in June was 2% (2%), meeting expectations but higher than the previous value. Lagarde said that the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts were nearing the end, but the market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May to 4.25% and continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK consumer price index CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), higher than expected and the previous value. The UK SPCT manufacturing (services) PMI in June was 47.7 (51.3), higher (higher) than expected and the previous value. However, since the UK GDP in May was - 0.1%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, the expectation of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in August has increased, and it may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and may start to reduce its quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The Japanese (Tokyo) consumer price index core (CPI) annual rate in June was 3.3% (3.1%), meeting expectations but lower than the previous value (lower than expected and the previous value). The Bank of Japan still has the expectation of raising interest rates before the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategies - Due to the passage of the US stable - coin related bill and the permission for pension funds to invest, the increased probability of the Fed's interest rate cuts, combined with global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pull - backs. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 760 and the resistance level around 800 - 850; for London silver, focus on the support level around 35 - 37 and the resistance level around 40 - 43; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8600 - 9000 and the resistance level around 9500 - 10000 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level and enterprise inventory still around 750,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The subsequent turnaround lies in exports. (View score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 17, compared with July 16, UR01 increased by 8 yuan/ton (0.58%), UR05 by 3 yuan/ton (0.17%), UR09 by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%), Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%), and Shanxi remained unchanged [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 17, compared with July 16, Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.55%), Hebei by 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%), Northeast by 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%), and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%) [1]. - **Spread and Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 7 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Important Information The previous trading day, the urea futures main contract 2509 had an opening price of 1733 yuan/ton, a high of 1747 yuan/ton, a low of 1731 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1743 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1740 yuan/ton, and a position of 198,012 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The previous trading day, UR fluctuated within a range and closed at 1743. The supply pressure of urea is large, and the subsequent turnaround depends on exports [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The passage states that the passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US Senate, an increase in the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and a decline in China's domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a rebound in copper prices. It is recommended that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly go long on the main contract at low prices, while paying attention to relevant support and resistance levels [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data 1.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - On July 17, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,840 yuan, down 140 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 54,262 lots, a decrease of 6,664 lots; the open interest was 153,791 lots, down 6,666 lots; the inventory was 68,127 tons, a decrease of 8,103 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,020 yuan, down 40 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 180 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous day; the spot premium or discount of electrolytic copper in Guangzhou was 65 yuan, up 5 yuan; in North China, it was - 120 yuan, up 20 yuan; in East China, it was - 15 yuan, up 25 yuan [2]. - The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 10 yuan, down 20 yuan; the spread between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 20 yuan, down 10 yuan; the spread between the second continuous and the third continuous contract was 40 yuan, unchanged [2]. 1.2 London Copper - On July 17, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,678 US dollars, up 41 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 122,150 tons compared to before [2]. - The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 58.71 US dollars, up 5.78 US dollars; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 113 US dollars, up 9.23 US dollars. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0430, down 0.05 [2]. 1.3 COMEX Copper - On July 17, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.498 US dollars, down 0.02 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory was 241,814 tons, an increase of 3,550 tons [2]. 2. Company Production - Rio Tinto's copper production in Q2 2025 was 229,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 9%. Its annual production guidance for 2025 is 780,000 - 850,000 tons [2]. 3. Macro and Industry Situation 3.1 Macro - The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold, digital currencies, etc. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the US consumer inflation rate in June. However, the US producer inflation rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The increasing expectation of Powell's early departure raises the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September or December [4]. 3.2 Upstream - The import index of Chinese copper concentrates increased from last week. The port throughput and inventory of copper concentrates in China changed. The restriction on high - quality scrap copper exports in Europe, the Sino - US trade dispute, and the negative or rising spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper affect the scrap copper market, with expected changes in production and import volume in July and tight supply - demand expectations [4]. - Some copper smelters had production adjustments. Glencore's 200,000 - ton SBX copper smelter in the Philippines, the Namibian roweb copper smelter of Zhongkuang Resources, and Glencore's 350,000 - ton anode copper plant in Chile suspended production. The Kaooe Kakula copper smelter in Congo (Kinshasa) may be put into operation in June 2025 with an annual output of 500,000 tons. Several projects in China are in progress or planned [4]. - The weekly processing fee of copper in northern and southern China changed. The planned maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in July may decrease, and the production and import volume of domestic copper in July are expected to increase. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area increased, while the social inventory decreased. The inventory of LME electrolytic copper increased, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased due to shipments to the US [4]. 3.3 Downstream - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and cable in East China decreased. Some refined copper rod enterprises planned to reduce production and inventory in July, but new orders improved slightly. The operating rates of refined and recycled copper rod production, copper wire and cable production, copper strip production, and copper foil production changed, with different trends [4]. - Affected by factors such as the Sino - US trade situation and the traditional off - season, the operating rates of domestic copper enterprises in July may decline, except for copper foil [4]. 4. Trading Strategy - The report suggests that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly go long on the main contract at low prices, paying attention to the support levels of 76,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.2 for US copper, as well as the resistance levels of 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,800 - 10,000 for London copper, and 6.0 - 7.0 for US copper [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Price and Cost Summary - Naphtha CFR Japan spot price on 2025/7/17 was $574.75 per ton, down 1.14% from the previous value [1] - Northeast Asia ethylene price on 2025/7/16 was $821.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Ethylene oxide ex - factory average price in East China on 2025/7/18 was 6450 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Methanol MA spot price on 2025/7/17 was 2377.50 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Tax - included lignite pit - mouth price in Inner Mongolia on 2025/7/17 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] Group 4: Futures and Spot Price Summary - DCE EG主力合约 closing price on 2025/7/17 was 4372 yuan per ton, up 0.48% [1] - DCE EG主力合约 settlement price on 2025/7/17 was 4367 yuan per ton, up 0.87% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price on 2025/7/17 was 4226 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - DCE EG near - month contract settlement price on 2025/7/17 was 4226 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Ethylene glycol market price in East China on 2025/7/17 was 4440 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI ethylene glycol internal price index on 2025/7/17 was 4440 yuan per ton, up 0.45% [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/7/17 was - 141 yuan per ton, down 34 yuan [1] Group 5: Operating Conditions and Load Rate Summary - Ethylene glycol comprehensive operating rate on 2025/7/17 was 56.46%, down 0.19% [1] - Petroleum - based ethylene glycol operating rate on 2025/7/17 was 58.73%, up 0.82% [1] - Coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate on 2025/7/17 was 53.17%, down 1.66% [1] - Polyester factory PTA industrial chain load rate on 2025/7/17 was 87.15%, unchanged [1] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms PTA industrial chain load rate on 2025/7/17 was 58.02%, down 1.10% [1] Group 6: Cash Flow and Price Index Summary - Naphtha - based ethylene glycol external cash flow on 2025/7/16 was - 103.92 dollars per ton, up 12.65 dollars [1] - Ethylene - based ethylene glycol external cash flow on 2025/7/16 was 116.65 dollars per ton, unchanged [1] - MTO - based MEG after - tax gross profit on 2025/7/17 was 1650.73 yuan per ton, down 19.34 yuan [1] - Coal - based synthesis gas method after - tax device gross profit on 2025/7/17 was 663.26 yuan per ton, up 28.76 yuan [1] - CCFEI polyester DTY price index on 2025/7/17 was 8500 yuan per ton, down 1.16% [1] - CCFEI polyester staple fiber price index on 2025/7/17 was 6605 yuan per ton, down 0.23% [1] - CCFEI polyester POY price index on 2025/7/17 was 6950 yuan per ton, down 1.42% [1] - CCFEI bottle - grade chip price index on 2025/7/17 was 5935 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - Basis on 2025/7/17 was 68 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is currently affected by factors such as supply - demand mismatch, new device production expectations, and seasonal consumption patterns. PX has strong bottom support due to low inventory, but its future benefit depends on unexpected factors. The supply side of PX lacks positive support, and the downstream start - up has a strong downward expectation. PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor. Polyester products' prices are generally under pressure due to weakening supply - demand expectations. It is predicted that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 17, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $67.54 per barrel (up 1.75%), and that of Brent crude oil was $69.52 per barrel (up 1.46%). The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $574.75 per ton (down 1.14%), and the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $692 per ton (down 1.91%) [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,714 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and the settlement price was 4,708 yuan per ton (unchanged). The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,734 yuan per ton (up 0.25%) [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,742 yuan per ton (up 0.39%), and the settlement price was 6,714 yuan per ton (down 0.12%). The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,686 yuan per ton (unchanged) [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,902 yuan per ton (up 0.27%), and the settlement price was 5,894 yuan per ton (up 0.20%). The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,935 yuan per ton (up 0.17%), and in the South China market was 6,010 yuan per ton (up 0.17%) [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY decreased by 1.16% to 8,500 yuan per ton, the index of polyester POY decreased by 1.42% to 6,950 yuan per ton, and the index of polyester short - fiber decreased by 0.23% to 6,605 yuan per ton [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.32% (down 0.66 percentage points), the PTA factory load rate was 80.59% (unchanged), the polyester factory load rate was 87.15% (unchanged), the bottle chip factory load rate was 71.93% (unchanged), and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02% (down 1.10 percentage points) [1]. Production and Sales - The production - sales rate of polyester filament was 40% (down 2 percentage points), the production - sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 53% (up 9 percentage points), and the production - sales rate of polyester chips was 53% (down 10 percentage points) [1]. Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 3.3 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2]. Important Information - International crude oil prices rebounded after three consecutive days of decline due to low inventory in the peak summer demand season and renewed concerns about Middle East geopolitics. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, but its supply side lacks positive support, and the downstream start - up has a strong downward expectation. The market is trading on the maintenance expectation of PTA under low processing fees, but new device production expectations on the supply side and weak demand in the off - season limit price increases [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA fluctuated lower, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,714 yuan per ton (up 0.13%) and an intraday trading volume of 691,800 lots; PX prices returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,742 yuan per ton (up 0.30%) and an intraday trading volume of 159,700 lots; PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,902 yuan per ton (up 0.34%) and an intraday trading volume of 37,400 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For lead, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] - For zinc, although there is strong bullish sentiment in the market, the supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots is increasing while demand is in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation trend is emerging. Fundamentals are weak, and short - term zinc prices are expected to weaken within a range. Consider shorting on rallies [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day. The closing price of the lead futures main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The basis was - 145 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 27.85 dollars/ton, up 3.17 dollars/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the lead futures active contract was 31,395 lots, down 3.74%. The open interest was 51,951 lots, down 2.73%. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.60, down 1.04% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 270,950 tons, with no change. Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 60,284 tons, up 3.78%. As of July 17, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 6.9 million tons, an increase of 0.79 million tons from July 10 and 0.56 million tons from July 14 [1] Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment failure and maintenance last week, with a slight decline in production. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and the supply of recyclers is limited. Due to raw material shortages or cost inversion, smelters have reduced or stopped production, and the inventory of secondary lead products is increasing. Demand is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may ease [1] Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,040 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The closing price of the zinc futures main contract was 22,130 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The basis was - 90 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 3.20 dollars/ton, up 5.75 dollars/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the zinc futures active contract was 77,512 lots, down 13.36%. The open interest was 67,223 lots, down 14.16%. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 1.15, up 0.93% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 121,475 tons, with no change. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 11,563 tons, down 4.92%. As of July 17, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 0.33 million tons from July 10 and 0.05 million tons from July 14 [1] Fundamental Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The improvement in the tight supply of zinc concentrate is basically realized, and the production restrictions on smelters due to raw material shortages are weakened. The cost - side support is weakened, and smelter profits and production enthusiasm are improving, with an obvious trend of increasing production. Although downstream zinc ingot inventory has increased due to price - fixing at low points, the overall procurement is limited due to weak terminal demand [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of methanol is expected to be weakly volatile. Methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have recovered but inland downstream profits are still poor. In terms of driving factors, there is a trend of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and inventory accumulation for methanol. If downstream MTO device maintenance is implemented, it will push down the methanol price. Even if not, the high raw material inventory of current downstream MTO enterprises makes it difficult for them to have further inventory - building demand, and port inventory is likely to continue to increase, suppressing the spot price in East China. It is recommended to short on rallies. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2450 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: On July 17, 2025, MA01 closed at 2438 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.16%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2365 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.17%); MA09 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.25%) [1]. - **Spot prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed different changes. For example, in Taicang, it was 2387.50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.42%); in Shandong, it was 2265.00 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.11%); in Guangdong, it was 2385.00 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.21%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 50.50 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. b. Upstream Costs - **Coal spot prices**: Coal prices of different varieties increased slightly. For example, the price of Port Shuohuang Q5500 was 440.00 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.57%); the price of Datong Q5500 was 505.00 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.50%); the price of Yulin Q6000 was 510.00 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.49%) [1]. - **Industrial natural gas prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c. Profit Situation - **Methanol production profit**: Coal - based methanol profit was 398.20 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan/ton (- 1.56%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 590.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO profit**: Northwest MTO profit was 404.20 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan/ton (- 6.91%); East China MTO profit was - 701.07 yuan/ton, down 26.50 yuan/ton (- 3.93%) [1]. - **Methanol downstream profit**: Profits of different downstream products showed different trends. For example, the profit of acetic acid was 305.91 yuan/ton, down 8.79 yuan/ton (- 2.79%); the profit of MTBE was 157.24 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan/ton (46.62%); the profit of formaldehyde remained at - 238.80 yuan/ton [1]. d. Important Information - Domestic methanol futures: The main contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2361 yuan/ton, closing at 2373 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 449,450 lots and an open interest of 653,886 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest. All contracts had trading volumes during the trading day [1]. - Foreign information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - month is 260 - 270 US dollars/ton. Recently, a small number of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - month were traded at a premium of +1.7 - 1.8%, and it was heard that a small number of far - month non - Iranian shipments were traded at 270 US dollars/ton. For other regions in the Middle East, the reference trading price of far - month shipments is at a premium of +0.8 - 1% [1].