Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the lead and zinc industry is "Range Strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - For lead, the market has a supply - demand stalemate with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Considering domestic policies to clear out backward non - ferrous metal production capacity and positive market sentiment, short - term lead prices are expected to be strong [1]. - For zinc, the market shows an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with an emerging inventory accumulation trend and weak fundamentals. However, due to strong market bullish sentiment and the policy of clearing out backward non - ferrous metal production capacity, short - term zinc prices are expected to be strong, but the upside space may be limited [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Trade Data - In June 2025, China's lead - acid battery imports were 486,100 units, a 14.73% month - on - month increase and an 8.51% year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 2,783,300 units, a 2.16% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, exports were 18,744,600 units, a 6.69% month - on - month decrease and a 20.53% year - on - year decrease. From January to June 2025, the cumulative exports were 113 million units, a 6.61% year - on - year decrease [1]. Production News - A large recycled lead smelter in North China plans to resume production by early August, affecting July production by about 2,000 tons [1]. Price and Market Analysis - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots rose 0.60% from the previous day, and the closing price of the main lead futures contract rose 0.83%. Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had a minor decline in production due to equipment maintenance. Recycled lead smelters face raw material shortages and high costs, with low overall production. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, which may reduce the drag on lead prices [1]. Zinc Trade Data - In June 2025, the export volume of galvanized sheets was 1.1312 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 6.9232 million tons, a 12.23% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, the import of zinc concentrate was 330,000 physical tons, a 32.87% month - on - month decrease and a 22.42% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import from January to June was 2.5339 million physical tons, a 47.74% year - on - year increase [1]. Price and Market Analysis - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots rose 2.25% from the previous day, and the closing price of the main zinc futures contract rose 2.83%. Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots is increasing, while demand is in the off - season. Although zinc inventory increased due to downstream bargain - hunting, the overall procurement is limited [1]. Lead and Zinc Market Data Price and Basis - Lead: SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 0.60%; futures main contract closing price is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 0.83%; Shanghai - lead basis is - 160 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1]. - Zinc: SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,750 yuan/ton, up 2.25%; futures main contract closing price is 22,925 yuan/ton, up 2.83%; Shanghai - zinc basis is - 175 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - Lead: Futures active - contract trading volume is 44,659 lots, up 38.31%; open interest is 44,870 lots, down 11.29%; trading - to - open - interest ratio is 1.00, up 55.92% [1]. - Zinc: Futures active - contract trading volume is 251,405 lots, up 66.42%; open interest is 133,314 lots, up 14.96%; trading - to - open - interest ratio is 1.89, up 44.77% [1]. Inventory - Lead: LME inventory is 264,925 tons with no change; Shanghai - lead warehouse receipt inventory is 60,059 tons, down 0.04% [1]. - Zinc: LME inventory is 118,225 tons with no change; Shanghai - zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 11,088 tons, down 2.40% [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The short - term policy expectation for methanol is greater than the fundamentals. Although the methanol fundamentals are bearish in terms of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to temporarily exit short positions and wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: MA01 increased from 2434.00 yuan/ton to 2482.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.97%; MA05 rose from 2364.00 yuan/ton to 2406.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78%; MA09 climbed from 2365.00 yuan/ton to 2411.00 yuan/ton, a growth of 1.95% [1]. - Spot prices: In different regions, prices in some areas changed slightly. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 0.52%, while that in Shandong decreased by 0.11%. Some regions like Guangdong and Hubei had no price change [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 49.00 yuan/ton to - 84.50 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 increased by 1.12%, while that of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged, and Yulin Q6000 decreased by 0.49% [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 1.58%, while natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged [1]. - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit increased by 6.70%, while East China MTO profit decreased by 5.15%. Profits of some downstream products like acetic acid, MTBE decreased, while those of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and rose, with an opening price of 2368 yuan/ton, a closing price of 2411 yuan/ton, a rise of 37 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 857,527 lots, and an open interest of 650,630 lots, with increased volume and decreased positions [1]. - Foreign: Two 330 - million - ton methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country reduced their loads to 50%, and another 165 - million - ton plant planned a short - term shutdown for maintenance in the near two days, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating load and daily production [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - Considering the policy expectation and the bearish fundamentals of methanol, it is recommended to temporarily exit short positions and wait and see [1].

0，PTA观点评分：0，PR观点评分：0）。 参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本 免责声明： 宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不 保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供 | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/22 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/7/21 | 美元/桶 | 67.20 | 67.34 | -0.21% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/21 | 美元/桶 | 69.21 | 69.28 | -0.10% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/21 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a situation where the upward momentum is insufficient. Although there are signs of a rebound in futures and spot prices, the selling pressure on the futures surface increases as the price rises, and the follow - up may enter a consolidation stage [1]. - The polysilicon market has also seen a continuous upward trend in the disk since the end of June, but as the previous long - positions gradually take profits and leave the market, the disk may adjust in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - **Industrial Silicon Spot Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.65% to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) increased by 1.04% to 9,750 yuan/ton. Different regions and grades of industrial silicon prices all showed varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Prices**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 6.50% to 9,260 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon Spot Prices**: The prices of N - type dense materials, N - type re - feeding materials, N - type mixed materials, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged [1]. - **Polysilicon Futures Prices**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 4.13% to 45,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: The prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm silicon wafers increased, while the prices of P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm remained unchanged [1]. - **Battery Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm increased by 0.75% [1]. - **Component Prices**: The prices of single - crystal PERC components remained mostly unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1]. Industry News - SynVista plans to build its first energy storage manufacturing plant in Southeast Asia in Malaysia, with an expected annual production capacity of 5GWh by the end of 2025 [1]. - In June 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume was 340,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume was very small, with a cumulative import volume of 5,200 tons from January to June, a year - on - year decrease of 62% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Industrial Silicon Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, northern large - scale factories have production reduction plans and no restart information, while the southwest region is about to enter the wet season, with power costs decreasing and enterprise start - up rates gradually rising, but the restart speed is slow, and the supply may decrease after offsetting. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, some silicon material factories plan to restart production in July, which will bring some demand increments; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined, and the overall start - up rate has decreased, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - **Polysilicon Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, and some may have new production capacity put into operation, and the output is expected to increase slightly, with the output in July approaching 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, and although the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed the increase due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the terminal market is still weak due to the over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1].

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天然与合成橡胶日评20250721: 天然橡胶震荡偏强 合成橡胶震荡偏强 | HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | 2025-07-10 | 2025-07-18 | 2025-07-17 | 收盘价 | 14810 | 14405 | 14665 | 145.00 ~ | | | | | 成交量(手) | 69,268.00 VV V | 天然橡胶 | 471429 | 402161 | 461226 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量(手) | 217638 | 219169 | 216558 | -1.531.00 ~ V V ~~~~~ | | | | 注册仓单量 | 186980 | 188740 | -340.00 | 186640 | 天然橡胶基差 | -130 | 15 | -140 | 155.00 -VV | | | | | | ...

| 甲醇日评20250721:短期政策预期大于基本面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 変化值 | 2025/7/17 | 2025/7/18 | 指标 | 单位 | (绝对值) | (相对目) | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2434.00 | 2438.00 | -4.00 | -0.16% | | | | | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2364.00 | -0.04% | 2365.00 | -1.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2365.00 | 2373.00 | -0.34% | -8.00 | | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2385.00 | 2387.50 | -0.10% | -2.50 | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2265.00 | 10.00 | 0.44% | | | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2385.00 | 15.00 | 0.63% ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250721:短期政策预期大于基本面 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 单位 7月18日 7月17日 | | | | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1718.00 | 2.00 | 0.12% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1731.00 | 1730.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% | | (收盘价) | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1745.00 | 1743.00 | 2.00 | 0.11% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1800.00 | 10.00 | 0.56% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1690.00 | 1680.00 | 10.00 | 0.60% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1800.00 | 10.00 | 0.56% | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, it is currently in a situation of both supply and demand being weak with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and the expectation of the peak season support lead prices. Considering domestic policies guiding the clearance of backward capacity in non - ferrous metals, market sentiment is positive, and short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong [1]. - For the zinc market, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation trend is becoming apparent, showing a weak fundamental situation. However, due to strong market bullish sentiment and the news of clearing backward capacity in non - ferrous metals, short - term prices of Shanghai zinc are expected to be relatively strong, but the upside space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.72%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 1.84%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 2.84%, and the open interest decreased by 2.64%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.33% [1]. - **Industry News**: From July 11th to July 17th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 65.82%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 37.9%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points; and the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.96%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries including non - ferrous metals [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and raw materials are in short supply, resulting in some smelters reducing or halting production. The demand side is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchases are expected to improve [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.95% from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract increased by 0.75%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) increased by 3.16%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 2.34%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 94.89%, and the open interest increased by 72.51%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.75% [1]. - **Industry News**: From July 11th to July 17th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 59.12%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 51.95%, a decrease of 1.99 percentage points; and the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.32%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points. In May 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate output was 120,800 metric tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, and the total output from January to May was 579,200 metric tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. As of July 17th, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate is expected to improve, and the limitation on smelter production due to raw material shortages has weakened. On the demand side, although downstream purchases increased slightly when zinc prices fell during the week, the overall weak terminal demand situation remains, and overall purchases are limited [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently in a weak fundamental situation. PX supply has no positive support, and with the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工. The fundamentals are moving towards weakness. - PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Although PTA processing fees are in a low - range, unplanned device overhauls are difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season. - Polyester bottle - chip supply is abundant, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious. The entire polyester industry chain follows cost fluctuations, and it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - WTI crude oil futures settlement price (continuous) was $67.34 per barrel on July 18, 2025, down 0.30% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $69.28 per barrel, down 0.35%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $576.38 per ton, up 0.28%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $705.50 per ton, up 1.88%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $839.00 per ton, up 0.74% [1]. - **PTA** - CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,744 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 0.64%; settlement price was 4,752 yuan per ton, up 0.93%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,781 yuan per ton, up 0.99%. The CCFEI price index for domestic PTA was 4,782 yuan per ton, up 1.14%, and the outer - disk index was $622.00 per ton, up 0.32% [1]. - **PX** - CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,810 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 1.01%; settlement price was 6,808 yuan per ton, up 1.40%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,667 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. The spot price (CFR Taiwan, China) was $840.00 per ton, up 0.72%, and the FOB South Korea price was $815.00 per ton, up 0.74% [1]. - **PR** - CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,930 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 0.47%; settlement price was 5,938 yuan per ton, up 0.75%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 0.25%, and in the South China market was 6,030 yuan per ton, up 0.33% [1]. - **Downstream** - The CCFEI price index for polyester staple fiber was 6,630 yuan per ton on July 18, 2025, up 0.38%. The index for polyester chips was 5,850 yuan per ton, up 0.86%, and for bottle - grade chips was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 0.25% [2]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2]. Important Information - PX spot price increased by 0.2% week - on - week to $839 per ton CFR by Friday, but the weekly average price decreased by 0.8% to $839 per ton CFR. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to improve depends on unexpected factors [2]. - On July 18, the PX CFR China price was $839 per ton. The oil market on the cost side was strong, a reforming device in East China reduced its load, and with new PTA production capacity in trial operation on the demand side, the expectation of tight supply and demand increased, and the market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [2]. Transaction Strategy - PTA fluctuated higher, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,744 yuan per ton (up 0.76%), and the daily trading volume was 1.29 million lots. PX price increased, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,810 yuan per ton (up 0.43%), and the daily trading volume was 283,200 lots. PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,930 yuan per ton (up 0.61%), and the daily trading volume was 58,400 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2].