Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be relatively loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month-on-month [1]. - The production suspension of some lithium resource development projects has a limited impact on the overall supply of the domestic lithium carbonate market [2]. - The demand for lithium - related products shows different trends, with some production volumes expected to increase month - on - month [3][4]. - The investment strategy suggests trading appropriate amounts of lithium carbonate futures contracts, paying attention to the support level around 62,000 - 65,000 and the pressure level around 70,000 - 74,000 [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On July 17, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 68,060 yuan/ton, 67,960 yuan/ton, 67,180 yuan/ton, and 67,180 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 826,939 lots, an increase of 348,825 lots compared to the previous day; the open interest was 363,676 lots, an increase of 23,058 lots [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 10,239 tons, a decrease of 416 tons compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - active contract closing price) showed certain changes. For example, the basis was - 3,010 yuan/ton on July 17, a decrease of 1,540 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of various types of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone showed slight increases or remained stable [1]. - **Lithium - Related Products**: The average prices of most lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary precursors remained unchanged, while the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium decreased by 400 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - Side Information - **Production Suspension**: The production line of Golmud Gege Mining Co., Ltd. with a monthly production capacity of about 200 tons of lithium carbonate has been shut down, but the impact on the overall market supply is limited. The company is actively cooperating to improve mining procedures [2]. - **Production Increase Projects**: Some projects such as Guangdong Yihai Lithium's battery - grade lithium carbonate production project and Zangge Mining's Mayum Co Lake project are expected to increase production capacity in the future [2]. Demand - Side Information - **Phosphoric Acid and Phosphoric Acid Lithium**: The monthly average production cost of phosphoric acid and phosphoric acid lithium in China is in a certain range, and the production volume of phosphoric acid lithium is expected to increase month - on - month [3]. Investment Strategy - **Project Progress**: Projects such as Hubei Ruipai New Energy's phosphoric acid iron ultra - pressure electrode material project and Tiancheng Lithium's phosphoric acid iron project are in different stages of progress and are expected to increase production capacity [4]. - **Production and Trade Trends**: The production and trade of various lithium - related products in China show different trends, with some production volumes expected to increase, and the processing fees of some intermediate products rising [4]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Trade appropriate amounts of lithium carbonate futures contracts, paying attention to the support level around 62,000 - 65,000 and the pressure level around 70,000 - 74,000 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side may see a reduction after offsetting increases and decreases, while the demand side has mixed trends. Short - term silicon prices are expected to continue a relatively strong consolidation with amplified fluctuations, and short - term operations are recommended. In the long - term, there is upward pressure on the market [1]. - For polysilicon, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term, but there is a risk of price decline after reaching a high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information** - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained at 9,500 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.69% [1]. - The basis (East China 553 - futures main) was 205 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [1]. - **Market News** - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will limit the daily opening volume of polysilicon futures and the SI2509 contract of industrial silicon futures from July 21, 2025 [1]. - As of July 17, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Northern large factories have production cuts with no resumption news, and the southwest region is about to enter the wet season with a slow resumption of production. Overall, supply may decrease [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts but some will resume production in July; organic silicon enterprises have strong intentions to cut production and support prices but weak demand; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information** - N - type dense material rose 3.41% to 45.5 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material rose 2.75% to 46.75 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material rose 1.15% to 44 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 43 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 45,700 yuan/ton, up 6.42% [1]. - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production cuts, but new production capacity may be put into operation, and the output in July is expected to approach 110,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Although the trading atmosphere has improved recently, the terminal market remains weak [1]. Other Products - **Silicon Wafer Prices** - N - type 210mm wafers rose 23.70% to 1.67 yuan/piece, N - type 210R wafers rose 24.35% to 1.43 yuan/piece, and N - type 183mm wafers rose 25.00% to 1.25 yuan/piece. P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm wafers remained unchanged [1]. - **Battery Cell Prices** - The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - **Component Prices** - The prices of single - crystal PERC components remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices** - The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The price of ethylene glycol (MEG) has been fluctuating within a certain range, with the spot price reaching a high of 4,460 yuan/ton and the basis weakening towards the end of the session. The market sentiment has been somewhat boosted, and the trading volume of futures contracts has increased. However, the downstream polyester industry is still facing pressure, with a decline in the operating rate and a decrease in the demand for raw materials. The restart of some MEG production facilities has been delayed, which may affect the supply in the short term. Geopolitical conflicts may also have an impact on the local loading plans and the market sentiment. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Naphtha CFR Japan**: The price on July 17, 2025, was $574.75/ton, down 1.14% from the previous value. [1] - **Ethylene Northeast Asia**: The price on July 16, 2025, was $821.00/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - **Ethylene Oxide in East China**: The ex - factory average price on July 18, 2025, was 6,450 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - **Methanol MA**: The price on July 17, 2025, was 2,377.50 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - **Lignite in Inner Mongolia**: The pit - mouth price (tax - included) on July 17, 2025, was 290 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - **DCE EG Futures Contracts**: - The closing price of the main contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,372 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous value. - The settlement price of the main contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,367 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from the previous value. - The closing price of the near - month contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,226 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. - The settlement price of the near - month contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,226 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG) in East China**: The market price (mid - price) on July 17, 2025, was 4,440 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. The CCFEI price index for MEG inner - market on July 17, 2025, was 4,440 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous value. [1] - **Near - far Month Spread of MEG**: On July 17, 2025, it was - 141 yuan/ton, down from - 107 yuan/ton previously. [1] - **Comprehensive Operating Rate of MEG**: On July 17, 2025, it was 56.46%, down 0.19% from the previous value. [1] - **Operating Rate of Petroleum - based MEG**: On July 17, 2025, it was 58.73%, up 0.82% from the previous value. [1] - **Operating Rate of Coal - based MEG**: On July 17, 2025, it was 53.17%, down 1.66% from the previous value. [1] - **PTA Industrial Chain Load Rate**: - The load rate of polyester factories on July 17, 2025, was 87.15%, remaining unchanged from the previous value. - The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on July 17, 2025, was 58.02%, down 1.10% from the previous value. [1] - **Cash - flow Situation**: - The after - tax gross profit of MTO - based MEG on July 17, 2025, was 1,650.73 yuan/ton, down 19.34 yuan/ton from the previous value. - The after - tax gross profit of coal - based syngas method on July 17, 2025, was 663.26 yuan/ton, up 28.76 yuan/ton from the previous value. [1] - **Polyester Price Index**: - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on July 17, 2025, was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the previous value. - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on July 17, 2025, was 6,605 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous value. - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY on July 17, 2025, was 6,950 yuan/ton, down 1.42% from the previous value. - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on July 17, 2025, was 5,935 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous value. [1] - **Basis of MEG**: On July 17, 2025, it was 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous value. [1] Important Information - A 150,000 - ton/year syngas - based ethylene glycol production facility in Xinjiang has been facing difficulties in restarting recently. [2] - The price of ethylene glycol has been fluctuating within a certain range, with the spot price reaching a high of 4,460 yuan/ton. The basis of the spot price has weakened towards the end of the session. The negotiation price of some cargoes is around $515 - 520/ton, and some cargoes are traded at around $53/ton. [2] - The trading volume of ethylene glycol futures has increased, and the market sentiment has been somewhat boosted. The downstream polyester industry is still facing pressure, with a decline in the operating rate and a decrease in the demand for raw materials. [2] - Geopolitical conflicts may affect the local loading plans and the market sentiment. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 1, PR view score: 1) [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is mainly driven by cost. PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain has tilted towards the raw material link again [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $67.54 per barrel, up 1.75%; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.52 per barrel, up 1.46% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $574.75 per ton, down 1.14%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $692.00 per ton, down 1.91% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $833.00 per ton, down 0.16%; CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of PTA internal market was 4,728 yuan per ton, up 0.21%; the external market was $620.00 per ton, down 0.16% [1] - CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,742 yuan per ton, up 0.39%; CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,902 yuan per ton, up 0.27% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,935 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; in South China was 6,010 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as DTY, POY, and short - fiber showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - On July 17, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.32%, down 0.66%; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 87.15%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02%, down 1.10% [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 40.00%, down 2.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 53.00%, up 9.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips was 53.00%, down 10.00% [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal; Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Market Analysis - International crude oil prices showed an interval fluctuation. Although there was a short - term rebound, the supply - demand situation was weak. PTA will have new device put into production in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support [2] - The market is trading on the maintenance expectation of PTA under low processing fees. The downstream polyester operating rate is still higher than that of last year, and the spot basis has strengthened. However, due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season on the demand side, it is difficult to boost prices [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was stable at 5,900 - 6,000 yuan per ton. The supply side's quotations were mixed, with low operating rates but sufficient market supply. Downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was average, and market sentiment was cautious [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic lithium carbonate production and inventory are at high levels, and the supply - demand outlook is loose. However, due to national policy - guided capacity clearance and expectations of automobile consumption stimulus, the prices of domestic and imported lithium concentrates have increased, limiting the downside space for lithium carbonate prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies, and pay attention to the support level around 63,000 - 65,000 and the resistance level around 68,000 - 70,000 [3] - The lithium carbonate basis is negative and the contango is positive, both within a reasonable range. This is due to the expectation of domestic lithium carbonate over - capacity clearance and the continuation of new energy vehicle consumption stimulus policies. However, the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand outlook remains loose, and investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side Lithium Concentrate - Ganfeng Lithium's Mali Goulamina lithium spodumene project phase I with an annual capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate was officially put into production in July. Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine 520,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, with the total capacity reaching 2.14 million tons per year. However, the daily prices of domestic and imported lithium ores have increased, and the domestic lithium concentrate production (import) volume in July may decrease (increase) month - on - month [10][11][13] Lithium Carbonate - The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of domestic lithium carbonate has increased compared to last week. Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 6,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate capacity may be put into production in July 2025, and Zijin Liyuan's 25,000 - ton capacity for producing battery - grade lithium carbonate from crude carbon will be completed and put into production in December 2025. The production volume of domestic lithium carbonate (industrial and battery - grade) in July may increase month - on - month, and the supply outlook is loose [27] - The import window is closed, and the import volume of domestic lithium carbonate in July may decrease month - on - month. The daily theoretical delivery profit of domestic lithium carbonate is negative, causing the inventory of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to decrease compared to last week. The social inventory (of smelters, traders, and downstream) of domestic lithium carbonate has increased compared to last week [30][34] Lithium Hydroxide - The daily cash production cost of domestic smelting (causticizing) lithium hydroxide is 58,700 (67,150) yuan per ton, and the production profit is negative. Yahua Group plans to build a 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line by the end of 2025. The production volume of domestic lithium hydroxide (by smelting and causticizing methods) in July may decrease month - on - month, the inventory (of smelters and downstream) in July may increase month - on - month, and the export volume in July may decrease month - on - month [38][43][48] Demand Side - The production volume of domestic lithium iron phosphate (lithium manganese iron phosphate) in July may increase month - on - month. Hubei Ruipai New Energy's project and Tiancheng Lithium's project, as well as Longpan Technology's project, are expected to contribute to the increase [60] - The production (import) volume of domestic nickel sulfate in July may increase month - on - month. The daily full production cost of domestic MHP/high - grade nickel matte/yellow slag/nickel beans to produce nickel sulfate is 124,100/119,500/126,600/125,200 yuan per nickel ton, and the production profit is negative/positive/negative/negative. The monthly production cost of Indonesian MHP/high - grade nickel matte integrated production of nickel sulfate is 112,000/119,100 yuan per nickel ton, and the production profit is positive [63] - The production volume of domestic lithium cobalt oxide in July may increase month - on - month. The suspension of cobalt exports in the DRC since February 22 and its extension have affected the supply, leading to a decrease in the processing fee of domestic cobalt intermediates and changes in the production of related cobalt products [67] - The production volume of domestic lithium manganate in July may increase month - on - month. The production (export) volume of domestic electrolytic manganese dioxide (lithium manganate type) in July has increased (decreased, decreased) month - on - month [77] - The production volume of domestic ternary precursors in July may increase month - on - month. The monthly processing fee of domestic ternary precursors has decreased month - on - month, the monthly production cost of producing ternary precursors from externally sourced raw materials is 79,450 yuan per ton, and the production profit is negative. The supply - demand outlook for domestic ternary precursors in July may be tight [81][83][87] - The production volume of domestic ternary materials in July may increase month - on - month. The monthly processing fee of domestic ternary materials has decreased month - on - month, the monthly average production cost of polycrystalline consumer - grade 5 - series ternary materials is 107,600 yuan per ton, and the production profit is negative. The inventory of domestic ternary material factories has increased compared to last week [92][93][95] - The production (export) volume of domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate in July may increase month - on - month. The daily production profit of producing solid - state lithium hexafluorophosphate from externally sourced lithium fluoride is negative [103][105][107] - The production volume of domestic lithium batteries in July may increase month - on - month, while the export volume may decrease month - on - month. The production (shipment and inventory) volume of domestic energy - storage cells in July may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month, and the production (shipment and inventory) volume of domestic power cells in July may increase (increase, increase) month - on - month [114][118][122] - The production (sales) volume of domestic new energy vehicles in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [124][126]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core View - Domestic lithium carbonate supply in July is expected to be loose, with the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate increasing month - on - month. Due to the clearing of lithium carbonate products from extraction projects and automobile consumption rules, there is upward potential for lithium carbonate prices. It is recommended to hold long positions in light - volume contracts and pay attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Price and Volume**: On July 16, 2025, the closing price of the active lithium carbonate futures contract was 66,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 478,114 lots, a decrease of 285,914 lots, and the open interest was 340,618 lots, a decrease of 1,528 lots. The inventory was 10,655 tons, a decrease of 548 tons [1]. - **Spread and Basis**: The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was 180 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract was 580 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; the spread between the second - consecutive and the third - consecutive contract was 0 yuan, unchanged. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - active lithium carbonate futures contract closing price) was - 1,470 yuan, an increase of 290 yuan [1]. Lithium Spot Prices - Various lithium - related products' prices showed different trends. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 64,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 63,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1]. Supply - side Information - Some lithium carbonate production enterprises in Jiangxi Shanggao and Yichun started maintenance from July 10 for 5 - 10 days, which may affect the production volume by 0.00 tons. The production capacity of Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 1,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate is expected to be put into production in July 2025, and Zijin Mining's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity will be completed and put into production in December 2025. The production volume of industrial and battery - grade lithium carbonate in China may increase month - on - month, but the supply is expected to be loose [4]. - The production volume of lithium hydroxide in China (smelting and causticizing methods) in July may decrease month - on - month, and the inventory may increase month - on - month. The export volume may also decrease month - on - month [4]. Demand - side Information - The monthly average in - production cost of phosphoric acid iron in China with different production processes is 10,600 - 12,900 yuan/ton, and the inventory in July may increase month - on - month. The monthly average in - production cost of lithium iron phosphate is 29,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton [5]. Company News - Panasonic Holdings decided to postpone the full - scale operation of its new US electric vehicle battery factory in Kansas due to Tesla's sales slump [2]. - Savoye announced that the drilling at the 2014 Canadian Quebec Mobilele project ended, with 116 new drill holes showing high - grade lithium mineralization, which is expected to increase resource reserves [2]. - Hubei Wanrun's planned project in Wuhan will automatically terminate after expiration [2]. - Australia's Cabic Company (CC9) successfully raised 100,000 Australian dollars through private placement for asset acquisition [3]. - Ganfeng Lithium's Mali project and Tianqi Lithium's project have achieved production increases [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's rate cuts in July and December has decreased, but due to the slower - than - expected bond - issuing pace of the US Treasury, continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly build long positions on price pullbacks. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Data 3.1 Shanghai Gold - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai gold futures active contract was 772.20 yuan/g, down 3.93 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 769.22 yuan/g [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai gold futures active contract was 259,450.00, and the open interest was 198,270.00; the trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 27,070.00, and the open interest was 221,178.00 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 28,872.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. 3.2 Shanghai Silver - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures active contract was 9,152.00 yuan/ten - gram, down 73.00 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 9,109.00 yuan/ten - gram [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai silver futures active contract was 764,716.00, and the open interest was 333,179.00; the trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 158,680.00, and the open interest was 3,334,284.00 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 1,212,789.00 kg [1]. 3.3 International Gold - **Prices**: The closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 3,354.20 (in US dollars/ounce), and the price of London gold spot was 3,323.80 US dollars/ounce [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of COMEX gold futures active contract was 55,177.00, and the open interest was - 79,249.00 [1]. - **Inventory and Fund Holdings**: The inventory was 36,797,531.57 (in troy ounces), SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 3.15, and iShare Gold ETF holdings were 445.17 [1]. 3.4 International Silver - **Prices**: The closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 38.13 US dollars/ounce, and the price of London silver spot was 37.88 US dollars/ounce [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of COMEX silver futures active contract was 55,710.00, and the open interest was 129,518.00 [1]. - **Inventory and Fund Holdings**: The inventory was 497,181,967.23 (in troy ounces), and the US iShare Silver ETF holdings were 14,819.29 [1]. 3.5 Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 518.20 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 68.71 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 66.64 US dollars/barrel [1]. - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 77,980.00 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,637.00 US dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,114.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 773.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.32%, SHIBOR one - year was 1.62%, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.4600%, and US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0500% [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.2859, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1526, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.3157 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,503.7769, the S&P 500 was 6,263.7000, the UK FTSE 100 was 72.37, the French CAC40 was 7,722.0900, the German DAX was 24,009.3800, the Nikkei 225 was 39,688.8100, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3,186.3800 [1]. 3.6 Macroeconomic Information - **US**: The US Treasury plans to increase cash reserves to 60 billion and 85 billion US dollars by the end of July and September. The number of new non - farm jobs in June was 147,000, the CPI annual rate in June was 2.7%, and the PPI annual rate in June was 2.3%, which reduced the probability of the Fed's rate cuts in September and December [1]. - **Europe**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May, and there is an expectation of 2 - 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is an expectation of an interest - rate hike by the end of 2025 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Overseas copper mines face production or transportation disruptions, but due to the Trump administration's significant tariff hikes on multiple countries and the emergence of the traditional off - season in the domestic market, the global total inventory of electrolytic copper continues to accumulate. As a result, the price of Shanghai copper may still have room to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,980, a decrease of 110 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 60,926 lots, a decrease of 20,740 lots; the open interest was 160,457 lots, a decrease of 9,473 lots; the inventory was 50,242 tons, an increase of 109 tons. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,060, an increase of 65 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 80, an increase of 175 compared to the previous day; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 60, an increase of 55; in North China, it was - 140, a decrease of 30; in East China, it was - 40, a decrease of 40 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 16, 2025, was 9,637, a decrease of 20.5 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 121,000 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 16, 2025, was 5.5185, a decrease of 0.01 compared to the previous day, and the total inventory was 239,435 tons, an increase of 2,981 tons [2]. 3.2 Important News - **Macro - economic**: The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to $500 billion by the end of July and September, raising funds by increasing the weekly standard Treasury bond issuance scale. The number of new non - farm payrolls in the US in June was 147,000, higher than expected and the previous value. The annual CPI rate in June was 2.7%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September/December [2]. - **Upstream**: A blasting fume poisoning accident occurred at the Luojiahe Copper Mine of Wulong Industrial Co., Ltd. in Yuanqu County, Yuncheng, Shanxi, resulting in three deaths. Miners' protests at some mines were suspended until July 18. The China copper concentrate import index was negative and increased compared to last week. The export of high - quality refined copper in Europe was restricted. The domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference was negative, and the import window for refined copper was open. Some smelters had production suspensions or capacity adjustments. The weekly processing fees for copper in North (South) China decreased (increased) [2]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China decreased compared to last week. Some copper rod enterprises planned to reduce production to cut inventory in July, but new orders improved slightly. The capacity utilization rates of copper products such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper wrapping wires, steel strips, and copper tubes showed different trends. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase month - on - month. The traditional off - season and Sino - US trade frictions may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate, production, and import volume of domestic copper enterprises in July [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to hold their previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper around 76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000, London copper around 4,300 - 5,600 and 9,800 - 10,000, and US copper around 5.0 - 6.2 and 6.0 - 7.0 [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Although the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased, mainly due to increased port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 800,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The subsequent turnaround still lies in exports. (View Score: 0) [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 16, compared with July 15, the closing price of UR01 in Shandong increased by 3 yuan/ton (0.18%), in Shanxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.10%), and remained unchanged in other regions. UR05 increased by 4 yuan/ton (0.23%), and UR09 increased by 2 yuan/ton (0.12%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 16, compared with July 15, the spot price in Henan decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.09%), in Hebei decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%), in the Northeast decreased by 40 yuan/ton (-2.21%), and in Jiangsu decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.65%) [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 24 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 1 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 16 compared with July 15 [1]. b) Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1731 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1739 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1726 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1733 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1734 yuan/ton, and the position was 197,633 lots [1]. c) Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated within a range and closed at 1733. The subsequent turnaround of urea prices still lies in exports [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a weak and volatile trend. Considering valuation, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have recovered, but inland downstream profits are still poor and have room for improvement, making methanol relatively overvalued. In terms of drivers, there is a trend of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and inventory accumulation for methanol. If downstream MTO device maintenance is implemented, it will push the methanol price down. Even if it is not implemented, the current high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises makes further inventory - building unlikely, and port inventory is likely to continue to increase, suppressing the spot price in East China. Therefore, it is recommended to short at high prices. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2450, and shorting at high prices is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2434 yuan/ton on July 16, 2025, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2361 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.71%); MA09 closed at 2367 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.80%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices: The spot price in Taicang was 2377.50 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.31%); in Shandong, it was 2262.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan/ton (0.33%); in Guangdong, it was 2390.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.21%); in Shaanxi, it was 2042.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.12%); in Sichuan and Chongqing, it remained unchanged at 2175.00 yuan/ton; in Hubei, it remained unchanged at 2295.00 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1972.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.13%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was -56.50 yuan/ton, up 13.50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: The price of Bujiakesi Q5500 was 437.50 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan/ton (1.16%); the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 502.50 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 was 507.50 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan/ton (1.00%) [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: The price in Hohhot remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, and the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol production profit was 404.50 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan/ton (-1.53%); natural - gas - based methanol production profit remained unchanged at -590.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: The profit of Northwest MTO was 434.20 yuan/ton, up 13.80 yuan/ton (3.28%); the profit of East China MTO was -674.57 yuan/ton, up 28.50 yuan/ton (4.05%); the profit of acetic acid was 314.70 yuan/ton, up 2.21 yuan/ton (0.71%); the profit of MTBE was 107.24 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton (38.84%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at -238.80 yuan/ton; the profit of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 466.00 yuan/ton [1]. 3.4 Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and declined, opening at 2386 yuan/ton, closing at 2367 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 448911 lots and an open interest of 654082, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. All contracts were traded during the trading day [1]. - Foreign information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 270 - 279 US dollars/ton. Recently, a small number of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future were traded with an increase of 1.8%. In other Middle - East regions, the reference transaction price of shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 0.8 - 1% [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - The short - term trend of methanol is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short at high prices. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2450, and shorting at high prices is recommended [1].