Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View of the Report - The rebound of the urea futures market is mainly due to short - term profit - taking by short sellers. The spot market remains dull, and the previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate at low levels. However, the current valuation of urea is low, and further short - selling is not recommended. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On October 14, it was 1597.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan (-0.81%) from October 13 [1] - UR05: On October 14, it was 1671.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan (-0.42%) from October 13 [1] - UR09: On October 14, it was 1707.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan (-0.18%) from October 13 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule Urea) - Shandong: On October 14, it was 1550.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.31%) from October 13 [1] - Shanxi: On October 14, it was 1460.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan (0.69%) from October 13 [1] - Henan: On October 14, it was 1540.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.32%) from October 13 [1] - Hebei: On October 14, it was 1590.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.27%) from October 13 [1] - Northeast: On October 14, it was 1620.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan (-0.61%) from October 13 [1] - Jiangsu: On October 14, it was 1560.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.96%) from October 13 [1] Spreads - Shandong Spot - UR01: On October 14, it was - 121.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00 yuan from October 13 [1] - 01 - 05 Spread: On October 14, it was - 74.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan from October 13 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite Coal Price (Henan): On October 14, it was 1000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Anthracite Coal Price (Shanxi): On October 14, it was 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price (Shandong): On October 14, it was 2900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price (Henan): On October 14, it was 2500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Melamine Price (Shandong): On October 14, it was 5084.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Melamine Price (Jiangsu): On October 14, it was 5100.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan (-1.92%) from October 13 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1606 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1616 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1592 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1597 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1602 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 321992 lots. [1]

| 贵金属日评20251015:美联储越发接近停止缩表或支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-10-13 | 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-14 | 收盘价 | 11. 42 | 838. 98 | 927. 56 | 64. 58 | 874. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 555171.00 | 226548.00 | 328, 623. 00 | 446705.00 | 108. 466. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包重 | 228459.00 | 256876.00 | 239996.00 | -11,537.00 | -28, 417. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 72183.00 | 70728.00 | 70728.00 | 1, 455. 00 | 1, 455. 00 | 上海黄 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariff re - imposition, expectations of future Fed rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be weak first and then strong. The report suggests waiting for the price to fall before laying out long positions [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data 1. Shanghai Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai copper inventory was 36,295 tons, an increase of 3,405 tons from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi average price was 86,668.945, the SMM premium copper open - discount - average price was 100, the Shanghai copper basis was 1,580, and the trading volume was 210,984 lots, a decrease of 80,438 lots from the previous day [1] 2. London Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,598.5, a decrease of 203.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 153, a decrease of 56.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 54.87, a decrease of 171.91 from the previous day [1] 3. COMEX Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the total COMEX copper inventory was 342,280, an increase of 2,755 from the previous day; the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.998, an increase of 0.15 from the previous day; the open interest was 187,566 lots, a decrease of 14,265 lots from the previous day [1] 4. Price Ratio and Premium Data - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9643, an increase of 0.08 from the previous day; the SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) - average price was 110, and the SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) - average price was 53, a decrease of 1 from the previous day [1]

| | /吨,成交1237490手,持仓1051360,缩量增仓。交易日内合约均有成交; | | --- | --- | | 资讯 | 国外资讯：据卓创资讯，美国财政部海外资产控制办公室（OFAC）新增13家中国企 | | | 业SDN列名，并且同期制裁多艘船舶，其中7艘为经常往返于中东的船舶，加上之前 | | | 已经被制裁的4艘，截至目前11艘船舶被美国国务院制裁,占到总体中东某国运力的 | | | 12%附近。 | | | 【多空逻辑】 | | | 我们对甲醇的判断是低位震荡,做多仍需等待。从估值上看,甲醇价格相对偏高,主 | | | 要是指相对于上游煤炭及下游聚烯烃价格偏高;从驱动上看,甲醇短期向上驱动也有 | | | 限，主要是当前港口库存压力偏高，下游补库驱动暂时不足。展望后市，我们认为库 | | 小结 | 存转折点或在11月中旬左右，后续的可能驱动主要在于供应端的可能减量，如伊朗 | | | 的限气预期等。整体来看我们认为甲醇做多仍需等待。 | | | 【交易策略】 | | | 观望。 | | | (观点评分:0) | | | 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料,本公司对这些信息的准确 ...

| | | | | 铅锌日评20251015：沪铅或有承压；沪锌关注海外结构性风险 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/15 | | 指标 单位 | | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 元/吨 | 16,875.00 | -0.30% | | | 沪铅期现价格 | | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 17,050.00 | -0.26% | | | | | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -175.00 | -5.00 | | | | | 升贴水-上海 | 元/吨 | | - - | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -45.35 | -7.13 | | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 美元/吨 | -69.40 | 5.80 | | | 价差 | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | - | -5.00 | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 元/吨 | -10.00 | 5.00 | | | 铅 | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 元/吨 | - ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251015：或有压力 | | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/10/15 指标 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,300.00 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,520.00 -3.24% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 780.00 285.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 51.25 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 49,990.00 2.56% | | 基差 元/吨 1,260.00 -1,250.00 | | 元/吨 9,300.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,250.00 0.00% | | 9,350.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 元/吨 | | 不通氧553#（四川）平均价格 元/吨 8, ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold [5][95] - Stainless Steel: Sell on rallies [6][121] Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals are loose, with large inventory pressure and reduced market risk appetite. However, the nickel valuation is low. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [5][95]. - Stainless Steel: The fundamentals are weak, with inventory accumulation and loose cost support. It is expected that stainless steel will fluctuate weakly [6][121]. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel rose 0.49% weekly after surging and then falling. The trading volume reached 289,900 lots (+65,000), and the open interest reached 77,800 lots (+1,700). LME nickel fell 1.41% weekly, and the trading volume was 41,000 lots (+14,800) [11]. - The basis premium was 1,040 yuan/ton [13]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ore remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21]. - In August, the nickel ore export volume from the Philippines increased, and China's nickel ore imports reached 6.35 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.8% and a year-on-year increase of 28.7% [26]. - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume increased by 180,300 tons month-on-month, and the port inventory increased by 670,000 wet tons [28]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 3 yuan/nickel point, and the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 50 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and scrap stainless steel widened [32]. - In August, China's nickel pig iron imports were 874,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.6% and a year-on-year increase of 67.4%. The import volume is expected to increase slightly in September [35]. - BF profit contracted, but the operating rate increased; RKEF losses widened, and the operating rate decreased [39]. - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [43]. - Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [45]. 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased [49]. - The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded [53]. - In August, both the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [57]. 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In October, the stainless steel production schedule increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased [63][110]. - In August, the stainless steel export volume increased by 7.6% month-on-month and decreased by 8.2% year-on-year; the import volume increased by 60.5% month-on-month and 17.7% year-on-year. The import and export volumes are expected to decline in September [67][113]. 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price of pure nickel fell, the price of nickel sulfate rose, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel expanded. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [72]. - In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month-on-month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% and year-on-year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively [77][79]. - In August, the production and sales volumes of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of 11.9% and 10.5% and year-on-year increases of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively [85]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, the SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. The Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social total inventory increased by 2,866 tons [86][91]. 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of preparing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP increased. The cost advantage of MHP integrated preparation of electrowinning nickel over nickel matte integrated preparation is obvious [94]. 1.5 Market Outlook - Nickel - Strategy: Hold - Operating Range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton - Logic: The supply side shows flat nickel ore prices, increased arrival volume, and port inventory accumulation; domestic iron mills' losses widen, production schedules decrease, while Indonesian iron mills' production schedules increase, and nickel pig iron inventory accumulates; domestic refined nickel production schedules increase, and export profits expand. The demand side shows increased production schedules of ternary materials and precursors, increased stainless steel mill production schedules, and stable alloy electroplating demand. The inventory side shows increased pure nickel social inventory and flat bonded area inventory [5][95]. 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures fluctuated within a range, falling 0.04% weekly. The basis widened to 1,110 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 159,300 lots (-132,100), and the open interest was 53,400 lots (+14,400) [99]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome fell, and the cost support weakened [102]. - The 200 - series stainless steel turned from profit to loss, the 300 - series losses widened, and the 400 - series losses narrowed [106]. 2.3 Fundamentals - In October, the stainless steel production schedule increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased [110]. - In August, the stainless steel export volume increased by 7.6% month-on-month and decreased by 8.2% year-on-year; the import volume increased by 60.5% month-on-month and 17.7% year-on-year. The import and export volumes are expected to decline in September [113]. 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic stainless steel social inventory accumulated, and the inventories of the 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series all increased [119]. 2.5 Market Outlook - Stainless Steel - Strategy: Sell on rallies - Operating Range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton - Logic: The fundamentals show increased stainless steel mill production schedules, decreased 300 - series production schedules, and weak terminal demand. The cost support is loose, and the inventory accumulates [6][121].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View After the holiday, refinery production resumed, and downstream industries also restarted, leading to an increase in both supply and demand in the lead market. However, due to pre - holiday inventory preparation by downstream enterprises and general terminal demand, most enterprises adopted a production - to - order model. As a result, lead ingot transactions were average, and with the addition of imported supplies, there was a high risk of lead ingot inventory accumulation, which might put pressure on prices. The price was expected to operate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and there was a need to be vigilant against price pullbacks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.74% to 16,925 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 1.18% to 17,140 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.44% to 2,014.5 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: The provided content shows the basis trends from 2022 - 2025, but specific analysis is not given [14]. 3.2 Primary Lead Supply - **Raw Material Tightness**: The tight supply of lead concentrates remained unchanged. Domestic mines had completed fourth - quarter output pre - sales and suspended quotes. After the holiday, the ore trading market was not active. With the cooling weather, the output of some mines might decline. Meanwhile, refineries were still highly motivated to produce due to high precious metal prices. The processing fees for lead concentrates were likely to fall rather than rise. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at - 110 US dollars/dry ton [2][31]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of primary lead remained unchanged at 68.47% compared to the previous period. The total weekly output of major domestic primary lead smelting enterprises in the week of October 10 was 51,550 tons, with some enterprises resuming production after maintenance [32][37]. 3.3 Secondary Lead Supply - **Waste Battery Price and Refinery Profit**: As of October 10, the average price of waste batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of secondary lead refineries remained stable. As of October 13, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 45 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 259 yuan/ton [43][50]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: As of October 9, the raw material inventory of secondary lead refineries increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 5.6 percentage points to 34%. The weekly output of secondary lead reached 44,300 tons [53][56]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - **Lead Battery Operating Rate**: The operating rate of lead batteries increased by 6.58 percentage points to 61.71%. After the holiday, downstream operations resumed as expected, but the terminal market showed little change compared to before the holiday. The new orders for electric bicycles were acceptable, but the replacement demand was average. The automotive battery market did not have a strong peak season, especially the export sector [64]. 3.5 Import and Export As of October 10, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,800 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 530.58 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window was closed. With the increase in the Shanghai - London ratio, the import window might open in the future [73]. 3.6 Inventory - **Social and Factory Inventory**: As of October 9, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 36,900 tons, showing inventory reduction; the factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands was 10,700 tons, a week - on - week increase. Before the holiday, refineries mostly carried out maintenance, and downstream enterprises stocked up, leading to a reduction in social inventory. During the holiday, refinery production resumed, and factory inventory accumulated [87]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of October 10, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 39,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease; the LME inventory was 237,000 tons, showing an increase [90].

[甲ta醇ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 10 月 14 日 做多仍需等待 风险提示：制裁政策变化，伊朗限气预期。 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《甲醇周报20240719：重回起点之后？》 《甲醇周报 20240816：短期震荡寻底， 但不必过度悲观》 《甲醇周报 20240913：抢跑宏观预期反 弹，等待回踩确认底部》 《甲醇周报20241108：短期有回调压力》 《甲醇周报 20241122：利多或已逐步兑 现》 《甲醇周报 20241206：关注回调后的试 多机会》 《甲醇周报 20250317：甲醇估值已不再 便宜》 《甲醇周报 20250402：利多难寻》 《甲醇周报 20250514：等待反弹后的沽 空机会》 《甲醇周报 20250526：向上动力不足, 偏弱震荡为主》 《甲醇周报 20250701：择机做多 MTO 利润》 《甲醇周报 20250715：估值偏高，驱动 向下》 《甲醇周报 20250723：短期政策 ...

免责声明:宏源规价有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的物货经营机构。已具备规货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料。本公 司时这些信息的准确性和完整世不作任何保证。也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、特论称建议 仅供参考。不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行规模投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。（风险提示：आ市有风险 人市需谨慎! 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据来源:SMM W 镍与不锈钢日评20251013:偏弱震荡 | 较昨日变化 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-09 | 2025-09-25 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 121980.00 | 124260.00 | -2,280.00 | 122680.00 | -11 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...