Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. The current methanol valuation is at a relatively low level. It is not recommended to continue short - selling from the valuation perspective. The upward driving force is limited, mainly due to the less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran and high inventory of MTO enterprises [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Profit Data - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2055 yuan/ton to 2029 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.27%; MA05 decreased from 2163 yuan/ton to 2145 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.83%; MA09 decreased from 2202 yuan/ton to 2200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.09% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased, with Shaanxi having the largest decline of 2.06% from 1945 yuan/ton to 1905 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit Situations**: Coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol profits remained unchanged. Northwest MTO profit decreased by 11.60%, while East China MTO profit increased by 15.27%. Acetic acid profit increased by 3.07%, and MTBE profit decreased by 16.99% [1] 2. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened, opening at 2049 yuan/ton, closing at 2029 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1178856 lots and open interest of 1497531, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: In a Middle - Eastern country, 11 methanol plants maintained their existing load, with an average operating load of 76.82%. As of November 16, the total methanol loading volume this month was 575000 tons [1] 3. Market Analysis - The supply expectation has pushed down the spot prices, especially in coastal areas. The upward driving force for methanol is limited due to less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran and high inventory of MTO enterprises [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to a certain extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage - enterprise entry. The low valuation of urea is the result of market consensus on the pressure of oversupply, but the price is supported at a low level. [1] - The trading strategy is to take profit on selling options and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium and long term. [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 rose from 1652.00 yuan/ton to 1662.00 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; UR05 rose from 1727.00 yuan/ton to 1737.00 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; UR09 rose from 1748.00 yuan/ton to 1755.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% increase. [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained)**: Prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu decreased by - 0.63%, - 0.62%, - 1.23%, and - 0.63% respectively, while those in Shanxi and Northeast remained unchanged. [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 0.67%, while that in Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong remained unchanged, and that in Jiangsu increased by 0.97%. [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 20.00 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged. [1] 3. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1667 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1641 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1662 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1656 yuan/ton, and the position was 254752 lots. [1]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20251118：沪铅上方承压；沪锌或有回调 | | | --- | --- | | 2025/11/18 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,275.00 -0.86% | | | 沪铅期现价格 17,355.00 -0.80% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | | 元/吨 -30.00 -20.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 铅 | | | -23.09 1.17 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 | | | 期货活跃合约成交量 手 74,591.00 99.73% | | | 价差 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -55.00 -5.00 | | | 成交持仓 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 74,585.00 94.15% | | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -25.00 -15.00 | | | 沪伦铅价比值 / | | | 成交持仓比 / 1.00 2.88% LME库存 吨 266,125.00 0.00% | | | 库存 | | | 沪铅仓单库存 吨 32, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On November 17, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated at a low level, with trading volume and open interest decreasing, and LME nickel prices falling 1.45%. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals are weak and there is inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate at a low level and test the support around 115,000 [11]. - Stainless steel: On November 17, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range, with trading volume increasing and open interest increasing. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Price and Trading Volume - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased by 330 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 102,915 lots, a decrease of 15,806 lots, and the open interest of the active contract was 107,341 lots, a decrease of 4,908 lots [2]. - LME 3 - month nickel's spot official price, electronic - disk closing price, and on - floor closing price decreased, with trading volume decreasing by 6,785 lots [2]. Inventory - Shanghai nickel inventory was 35,027 tons, an increase of 799 tons. LME nickel registered warrants decreased by 243,738 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5,604 tons [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and import inventory decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, domestic production in November decreased, and Indonesian production increased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in November decreased, and electrolytic nickel import losses widened [11]. - Demand: Ternary material production increased, stainless - steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [11]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level and test the support around 115,000 [11]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Stainless - steel Market Price and Trading Volume - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts showed different changes. The trading volume of the active contract was 137,113 lots, an increase of 17,461 lots, and the open interest was 172,728 lots, an increase of 4,992 lots [2]. Inventory - Shanghai stainless - steel inventory decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventory was 623,200 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons [13]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production in November decreased, and 300 - series production was basically flat [13]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [13]. Cost - High - grade pig iron prices and high - carbon ferrochrome prices decreased [13]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions. If the current price fails to break through the previous low support effectively, take profit and wait and see [13]. Industry News - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the second batch of projects to be promoted by the National Major Projects Office, including the Sisson nickel project, the Matavanie Mountain project, and the Crawford project. The Crawford project has the world's second - largest nickel reserves and resources, with a total investment of 3.5 billion Canadian dollars and is expected to produce 3.5 billion pounds of nickel, 52.9 million pounds of copper, etc. over a 41 - year mining period [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent. The lithium carbonate production remains high, and the high price increases the wait - and - see sentiment. The spot market has few transactions, and the power demand has shown signs of peaking. The game between long and short positions intensifies, and the trading channel is crowded. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely and may fall after a short - term rise [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Volume Data - **Futures Closing Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 95,140 yuan/ton, 95,200 yuan/ton, 94,780 yuan/ton, and 94,780 yuan/ton respectively, with significant increases compared to previous dates [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active lithium carbonate futures contract was 1,366,919 lots (+609,487), and the open interest was 562,954 lots (+46,176) on November 17, 2025 [1]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse inventory was 26,953 tons (-217), and social inventory decreased. Refineries and downstream industries reduced inventory, while other inventories increased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithium carbonate increased to varying degrees [1]. Industry News PMET Resources Inc. submitted the NI 43 - 100 feasibility study technical report for the CV592 spodumene ore body in the Shaalcchurvaanaan project. The project has the largest spodumene resource in the Americas, with an indicated resource of 108 million tons (lithium oxide grade of 1.40%) and an initial inferred ore reserve of 8.3 million tons (grade of 1.26% Li₂O). It also has large resources of pollucite and tantalum [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was flat month - on - month. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and lithium mica decreased, while that from salt lakes and recycling increased [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while that of ternary materials decreased. In November, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide increased, and that of lithium manganate decreased. The production of power batteries decreased last week. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C product shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]. Investment Strategy Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high prices [1].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251118：上方承压 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/18 近期趋势 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 9,080.00 | 0.67% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 270.00 | -60.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 52,655.00 | -2.57% | | 元/吨 | 基差 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | -1,655.00 9,350.00 | 1,390.00 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,250.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. The low valuation of urea is the result of the market's consensus on the pressure of oversupply, but from the perspective of drivers, the urea price is supported at a low level. It is recommended to take profit on the sold options and focus on long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium and long term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On November 14, UR01 closed at 1,652 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or 0.36% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1,727 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.23%; UR09 closed at 1,748 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or 0.34% [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - On November 14, the spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton, 1,480 yuan/ton, and 1,610 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Hebei dropped 10 yuan to 1,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%, while the prices in Northeast and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1,650 yuan/ton and 1,590 yuan/ton respectively [1] Spreads - On November 14, the spread between Shandong spot and UR01 was - 127 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day; the spread between 01 - 05 was - 75 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - On November 14, the anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - On November 14, the prices of 45% compound fertilizer in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,980 yuan/ton and 2,530 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5,093 yuan/ton and 5,150 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1,652 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,657 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,643 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,652 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,649 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Take profit on the sold options and focus on long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium and long term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX oscillated at a high level this week due to the rebound of oil prices and speculation on the blending - oil logic. Rumors about the aromatics arbitrage between Asia and America and blending - oil speculation increased, and the rebound of crude oil prices provided support for PX [9]. - PTA also oscillated at a high level. The recovery of cost support and the lifting of India's BIS certification contributed to this. The stable cost made the polyester raw material end run strongly, and the cancellation of the BIS certification was beneficial to the export expectations of PTA and downstream polyester products [9]. 2.2 Market Outlook Forecast - Crude oil: If there are no unexpected events, the price of crude oil is likely to continue the oscillating and weakening trend as the situations in South America and the Russia - Ukraine conflict remain the focus [10]. - PX: The overall operating rate of PX remains high, and the downstream polyester is at the transition point between peak and off - seasons. The implementation of export orders for downstream TA and polyester needs attention [10]. - PTA: The processing fee is still at a low level. Although the operating rate has declined, there will be no shortage of goods. Attention should be paid to the change in the flow direction of India's PTA imports [10]. - Polyester: The market is transitioning to the off - season. Short - term demand is generally stable, and there is positive news in the export market, but it needs time to be verified [10]. - Weaving: The domestic winter orders have basically ended, and the sales of polyester factories have increased only slightly. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving situation after the Spring Festival [10]. - Overall: PX will oscillate in the range of 6,650 - 6,850 yuan/ton; PTA will oscillate in the range of 4,550 - 4,750 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - **PX Futures**: PX futures oscillated at a high level. On November 14, the closing price of the main contract was 6,806 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (0.38%) from November 7. The settlement price on November 14 was 6,848 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (1.33%) from November 7 [13][15]. - **PX Spot**: The market negotiation and trading volume were average, and the trends of the physical and paper spot markets diverged. From November 10 - 14, the average basis of the main contract was - 238 yuan/ton; the average domestic PX spot price was 6,567.20 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (0.67%) from the previous period [16][18]. 3.1.2 PTA - **PTA Futures**: PTA futures rebounded and recovered driven by costs. On November 14, the closing price of the main contract was 4,700 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (0.77%) from November 7. The settlement price on November 14 was 4,712 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton (1.29%) from November 7 [20][22]. - **PTA Spot**: The negotiation atmosphere was generally light, mainly among traders, with individual polyester factories replenishing stocks. The average daily trading volume was 1 - 2 million tons. From November 10 - 14, the average basis of the main contract was - 88 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 579.8 US dollars/ton, up 9.8 US dollars/ton (1.72%) from the previous period. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,597.6 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (1.37%) from the previous period [23][25]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - **Domestic PX Devices**: Many domestic PX devices are operating at different loads. For example, Ningbo Daxie is operating at 70 - 80% of its capacity, and Sheng Hong Refining & Chemical's two 200 - million - ton devices are operating at 95% of their capacity [30]. - **Asian PX Devices**: Devices in different Asian regions have different operating conditions. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia is operating at 55 - 65% of its capacity, and Exxon Mobil in Singapore is operating at 45 - 55% of its capacity [31]. - **PX Operating Rate**: From November 10 - 14, the operating rate was 90.50%, up from 90.17% from November 3 - 7 [33]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - **PTA Device Maintenance**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance. For example, Yisheng Dahua's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device has been shut down since August 8, and Hainan Yisheng's 2 - million - ton device has been under technical transformation since August 15 [35]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate decreased by 1.51%. The spot supply is sufficient, and there are no unplanned PTA device maintenance [36]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions remain high, but oil flow is basically unaffected. On November 14, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 59.39 US dollars/ton, down 0.45 US dollars/ton from November 7; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 64.39 US dollars/ton, up 0.76 US dollars/ton from November 7 [41][43]. - **Naphtha**: After a period of stalemate, the price of naphtha dropped significantly. The average weekly CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 578.09 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit was 76.72 US dollars/ton [46][48]. 3.3.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The PXN margin widened slightly, and the short - process efficiency narrowed. The weekly average PXN was 247.40 yuan/ton, up 2.40% from the previous period. The PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 99.75 US dollars/ton [49][51]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The cash flow is still at a low level. From November 10 - 14, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 183.45 yuan/ton, up from 149.52 yuan/ton last week [52][54]. - **Inventory**: With the implementation of planned maintenance, short - term inventory reduction is expected. As of November 14, the PTA social inventory was 4.044 million tons, down 28,000 tons from the previous week. The average inventory days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 3.97 days, and the raw material inventory days of polyester factories were 6.35 days [57][59][63]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Polyester**: Supported by cost and stable demand, the average weekly prices of polyester products were stable. The average market prices of polyester filament semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 6,580 yuan/ton, 7,915 yuan/ton, and 6,770 yuan/ton, up 1.00%, 1.09%, and 0.97% respectively from the previous period [64][66]. - **Weaving**: The foreign trade market in the weaving industry continued to recover, while the domestic market was seasonally weak in some areas. As of November 13, the operating rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang and Changxing remained stable, while the operating rates of circular looms in Xiaoshao increased slightly, and the operating rates of warp - knitting machines in Haining and Changshu decreased slightly [78][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate present a pattern of strong supply and demand, but the production of power cells has reached its peak, and downstream players are adopting a wait - and - see attitude towards high prices. The spot market has light trading volume, with both trading volume and open interest at high levels, leading to a crowded trading channel and intense long - short competition. There is a high risk of price fluctuations in lithium carbonate, and caution should be exercised against a sharp decline after a peak [6][97] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 7.51%. The trading volume reached 4.9 million lots (+1.43 million), and the open interest reached 516,800 lots (+25,800). The basis was at a discount of 2,210 yuan/ton [8][9] 1.2 Supply Side Lithium Ore - In October, China's lithium spodumene production was 7,350 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%; lithium mica production was 7,700 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5% [13] - In September, the import volume of lithium concentrate increased to 520,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0% [17] - In August, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China increased to 128,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6% [21] Lithium Battery Recycling - In November, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 30,164 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [26] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5% [31] - In September, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [33] Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 45%, and the scheduled production was 29,970 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In September, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [40] 1.3 Downstream Demand Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 89,894 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In November, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 341,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 46% [43] Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 18,884 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. In September, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased [49] Ternary Precursors - In November, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 49%, and the scheduled production was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. In September, the export volume increased slightly [54] Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In November, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the scheduled production was 11,990 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. In November, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, and the scheduled production was 13,585 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 75% [59] Electrolyte - In November, the scheduled production of electrolyte was 210,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 28.0%. In September, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [64] 1.4 Terminal Demand Power Batteries - In October, the production of power batteries was 170.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.8%. In October, the installed capacity of power batteries was 84.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1% [67] - Last week, the production of ternary power cells was 7.45 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%, and the production of lithium iron phosphate power cells was 22.4 GWh, remaining flat month - on - month [68] New Energy Vehicles - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.715 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 19.9% [73] Energy Storage - In November, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries was 55.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 31.2%. In September, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.0%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.34 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 46.3% [79] Consumer Electronics - In October, the production of Chinese smartphones was 11.693 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% and remaining flat year - on - year. In October, the production of Chinese micro - computers was 2.422 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [82] 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore increased. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate increased by $79/ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 160 yuan/ton [87] 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 3,481 tons. Structurally, the inventory of smelters decreased by 2,445 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 3,236 tons, and other inventories decreased by 2,200 tons [92] - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 981 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 342 tons [93] 1.7 Market Outlook - The supply of lithium mica mines in Jiangxi remains at a low level, while the production of lithium spodumene increases, and the import volume of lithium ore rises. The weekly production of lithium carbonate remains high, with a decrease in the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica, and an increase in the production from salt lakes and recycling. The import volume of lithium salts will recover, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile will increase, and the recycling sector will maintain stable growth. The production growth rates of new energy vehicles and cell factories have slowed down, with inventory reduction in lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials last week. The scheduled production of energy - storage batteries continues to grow, but the winning bid scale of energy storage has declined. The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica have increased. Overall, the inventory has decreased [6][97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, zinc prices may be under pressure due to factors such as weak consumption and the Fed's hawkish remarks dampening rate - cut expectations. Previous short positions can be held. [3] - In the medium - to - long term, the mine end remains tight, processing fees are likely to fall rather than rise, refinery operations may decline, and combined with export expectations, there is strong support below the zinc price. After a correction, long positions can be considered. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Zinc prices showed an oscillatory decline. The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.66% to 22,420 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract fell by 1.30% to 22,425 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) dropped by 1.70% to 3,014.5 US dollars/ton. [12] 3.2 TC Continues to Fall, Focus on Ingot - End Operation 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of November 14, the inventory of imported zinc ore at Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports decreased by 43,000 tons to 305,700 tons. The CZSPT set the guidance range for the purchase US - dollar processing fee of imported zinc concentrate before the end of the first quarter of 2026 at 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton. [30] - As of November 13, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,398 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. [37] - Both domestic and imported TC for zinc concentrate continued to decline. [38] 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Due to the oscillatory decline of zinc prices and the fall of TC, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 13, the production profit was - 1,338 yuan/ton. It is expected that the zinc ingot output in November will slightly decline to around 610,000 tons. [47] - The import profit window for refined zinc remained closed. As of November 14, the import profit was - 4,292.04 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons. [51] 3.3 Environmental Restrictions Lifted, Galvanizing Operation Rate Rebounds - The galvanizing operation rate increased by 2.46 percentage points to 57.59%. The operation of enterprises affected by environmental restrictions has basically recovered. In terms of demand, the demand in the north is relatively flat, while that in the south is relatively strong, and export orders are relatively stable due to tariff negotiations. [57] - The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased due to high - level oscillatory zinc prices and large - scale enterprises' demand for long - term order goods. The finished product inventory also increased. [60][61] 3.4 Poor Demand, Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Operation Rate Declines - The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.64% to 23,165 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.63% to 23,715 yuan/ton. [70] - The die - casting zinc alloy operation rate decreased by 0.65 percentage points to 50.3%. Some enterprises reduced production due to poor demand. [73] - The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased as enterprises reduced spot purchases and consumed long - term orders at the beginning of the month. The finished product inventory increased as production and shipment slowed down. [76][77] 3.5 Slower Shipment, Zinc Oxide Finished Product Inventory Continues to Accumulate - The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 0.92% to 21,500 yuan/ton. [83] - The operation rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 1.32 percentage points to 56.31%. Some northern enterprises were affected by environmental protection. In the terminal market, the tire factory's purchase of rubber - grade zinc oxide is relatively stable, but there is caution about the future tire export market. [86] - The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises increased as some enterprises received raw material shipments. The finished product inventory slightly increased due to high - zinc - price - induced downstream wait - and - see sentiment and slower shipment. [89] 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Continues to Improve 3.6.1 Inventory Status - As of November 13, the SMM zinc ingot inventory in three locations was 148,800 tons, showing a slight decline. The inventory in the bonded area was 3,800 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. [96] - As of November 14, the SHFE inventory was 100,900 tons, showing an increase. As of November 13, the LME inventory was 39,000 tons, continuing to rise. [99] 3.6.2 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From March to September 2025, the monthly supply - demand balance of zinc showed fluctuations, with some months having a surplus and others a deficit. For example, in September 2025, the supply - demand balance was - 0.20 million tons. [105]