Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The investment performance in October was still weak, with further declines in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate, indicating poor domestic demand. However, exports maintained strong resilience, with the advantage of trading volume for price still intact [9] - The steel industry is currently in a production - cut phase. Since steel profit per ton has not suffered significant losses, production reduction has been slow, and inventory depletion of products like hot - rolled coils has slowed down. Production may still have room to decline [9] - With insufficient driving forces and intensified long - short battles, the short - term fluctuation range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 and valley - electricity cost. Prudent operation is recommended [9] Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price and Output - Last week, domestic steel spot prices were consolidating. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3160 yuan, and the price of hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan [7] - On November 13, the total output of five major steel products decreased by 22.36 tons. The factory inventory of five major products decreased by 12.61 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 13.61 tons. The apparent demand was 860.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.31 tons [7] - As of November 14, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive cost of rebar was 3181 yuan, with a profit of about - 21 yuan; the profit of hot - rolled coils was about 22 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - electricity cost of rebar was about 3262 yuan, and the valley - electricity cost was about 3131 yuan. The flat - electricity profit of rebar was about - 202 yuan, and the valley - electricity profit was about - 71 yuan [7] Scrap Steel - As of November 13, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [8] - The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage point. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 50.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 24.1 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 tons, an increase of 0.3% [8] - The average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 tons, a decrease of 3.6%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 492.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.58 tons, an increase of 1.4% [8] Other Data - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023 [18] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 711 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared with the same period in 2024; the cumulative crude steel output was 818 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% compared with the same period in 2024 [18] - The PMI in October 2025 was 49% [22] - From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In October, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 8.91% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 6.67% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 23.22% year - on - year [26] - From January to October, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6,529.39 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The completed floor area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9% [29] 2. Main Variety Basis and Spread - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar shrank [39] 3. Supply Long - Process Supply - As of November 14, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.99 percentage points or 1.13%. The average daily pig iron output was 236.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 tons or 1.14% [42] Short - Process Supply - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - furnace plants was 34.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage point. As of November 14, the iron - scrap price difference was 35.6 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan [45] Rebar Production - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 2 million tons, a decrease of 85,400 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 1.7191 million tons, a decrease of 73,800 tons; the short - process output was 28,090 tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons [57] 4. Demand Building Materials Transactions - Data on building materials transactions in the northern, eastern, and southern regions are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [60][62][63] Cement Mill Operating Rate - The average operating load of national cement mills was 37.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.46 percentage points, and the decline rate widened by 0.18 percentage points. Market demand mostly decreased, showing strong off - season characteristics [68] Real Estate Sales - Data on the sales area of 30 - city commercial housing are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70] Rebar Inventory - This period, the original sample factory inventory of rebar was 1.6042 million tons, a decrease of 64,200 tons; the social inventory was 4.1575 million tons, a decrease of 99,500 tons; the total inventory was 5.7617 million tons, a decrease of 163,700 tons [74] Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Demand - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 313,660 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons. The apparent demand was 313,590 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,100 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 900 tons, the social inventory decreased by 200 tons, and the total inventory increased by 700 tons [77] Plate Demand - As of November 14, the cold - hot price difference in the Shanghai area was 610 yuan/ton [84] Export Situation - As of November 14, China's FOB export price was 440 US dollars, and the export profit was - 23.3 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 3.3176 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 399,100 tons or 13.7% [87]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Myanmar's Wa State tin mine is resuming production slowly, which leads to a tight supply - demand expectation. However, multiple Fed officials' hawkish stance on a December rate cut may put pressure on tin prices, causing an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices [1] - On the supply side, the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Indonesia, along with a significant drop in domestic tin concentrate processing fees, indicate a tight supply - demand outlook. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased (or remained flat) compared to last week [1] - On the demand side, the daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month. The new energy vehicle and AI sectors bring optimistic demand expectations, but high tin prices lead to less downstream just - in - time procurement [1] - In terms of inventory, the refined tin inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, China's tin ingot social inventory, and the LME's refined tin inventory have all increased compared to last week [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Tin Market Data - On November 14, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai tin spot was 298,140 yuan, a decrease of 6,690 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 151,802 lots, a decrease of 47,866 lots. The open interest was 43,594 lots, a decrease of 7,253 lots. The inventory was 8,699 tons, an increase of 234 tons [1] - The SMM No. 1 tin average price was 296,000 yuan, a decrease of 3,900 yuan. The Shanghai tin basis was - 2,140 yuan, an increase of 2,790 yuan. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai tin was - 890 yuan, an increase of 1,440 yuan [1] London Tin Market Data - On November 14, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) was 36,860 US dollars, a decrease of 205 US dollars compared to the previous day. The spread between the LME tin futures 0 - 3 - month contract was - 87.5 US dollars, a decrease of 102.8 US dollars. The spread between the 3 - 15 - month contract was 131 US dollars, a decrease of 36 US dollars [1] - The global LME tin inventory was 3,065 tons, with no change. The registered LME tin warrants were 2,950 tons, with no change. The cancelled LME tin warrants were 115 tons, with no change. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.04, a decrease of 0.14 [1] Trading Strategy - Lightly short the main contract on rallies. Pay attention to the support levels around 260,000 - 270,000 for Shanghai tin and 33,000 - 35,000 for London tin, as well as the resistance levels around 300,000 - 310,000 for Shanghai tin and 38,000 - 40,000 for London tin [1]

| 贵金属日评20251117: 多位美联储官员放鹰使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-10 | 收盘价 | 953. 20 | 17.22 | 961. 22 | 935. 98 | -8. 02 | | | | | 成交量 | 307687.00 | 307850.00 | 320688.00 | -163.00 | -13,001.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 113597.00 | 124239.00 | 136657.00 | -23, 060. 00 | -10. 642. 00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 90426.00 | 89616.00 | 0. 00 | 810. 00 | 90426.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | 947. ...

| | | 甲醇日评20251117: 库存压力仍存,沿海现货偏弱 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/13 | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 2103.00 | -48.00 | -2.28% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2163.00 | 2208.00 | -45.00 | -2.04% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2202.00 | 2231.00 | -29.00 | -1.30% | | | | 太仓 | 元/呼 | 2045.00 | 2067.50 | -22.50 | -1.09% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2180.00 | 2187.50 | -7.50 | -0.34% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 2075.00 ...

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 沪锡日评20251117: 多位美联储官员对12月降息转鹰或施压锡价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-11-13 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-10 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 291 450 298140 沪锡朗货活跃合约 | 286560 | -6, 690.00 | | | 成交量(手) 103936 151802 | 70764 | -47. 866. 00 | | | 持仓量(手) 36341 43594 | 34257 | -7.253.00 | | | 库存(吨) 5932 8699 | 5694 | 234. 00 | | | 沪锡县差 SMM 1#锡平均价 292100 296000 | 285800 | -3. 900. 00 | | | (现货与期货) 沪锡基差 650 -2140 | -760 | 2, 790. 00 | | | 沪锡近月-沪锡连一 550 -890 | -580 | 1, 440. 00 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View - Multiple Fed officials' hawkish remarks have increased the uncertainty of future expectations, causing short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, factors such as global debt expansion, fiscal deficit, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 947.98 yuan/gram, with a daily change of - 10.69 yuan and a weekly change of 14.96 yuan. The trading volume was 45,922, with a daily decrease of 20,686 and a weekly decrease of 5,282. The open interest decreased by 16,690 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 12,351 yuan/ten - gram, with a daily change of - 237 yuan and a weekly change of 632 yuan. The trading volume was 1,026,209, with a daily decrease of 104,492 and a weekly increase of 10,299 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 4,174.50 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 99.60 dollars and a weekly change of - 90.10 dollars. The trading volume was 332,490, with a daily increase of 30,017 and a weekly increase of 148,845 [1]. - **International Gold and Silver**: London gold spot price was 4,071.10 dollars/ounce, down 124.55 dollars from the previous day. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,044 tons, an increase of 3.65 tons from the previous day [1]. 2. Important Information - Fed hawks oppose a December rate cut, and as of last Friday, the market's expectation of a December rate cut has dropped to 40%. The US will release important economic data on November 20 (September non - farm payrolls) and November 26 (Fed - preferred indicator PCB) [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall before placing long orders. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,850 - 3,950 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 870 - 890 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 960 - 1,000 yuan/gram [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the downstream replenishment willingness is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the trading strategy is to conduct range - bound operations. For polysilicon, before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the previous day. The basis (East China 553 - futures main contract) was 330 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton. The average prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply**: Southwest production areas are entering the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, resulting in a significant decline in the operating rate. In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. Although the number of open furnaces in the north increased steadily, the overall supply decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices was limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Conduct range - bound operations. Pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton and continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 price rose 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract was 54,045 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October still increased slightly, and the output in November is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were highly resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position. Pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Other Information - On November 12, the ceremony for the full grid - connection of the 35 - megawatt solar photovoltaic power station equipment project aided by China to Cuba was held. The project includes 7 photovoltaic power stations, which will increase Cuba's clean power supply capacity and save about 18,000 tons of imported fuel annually [1]. - On November 6, the first - phase 102.56 - megawatt power generation unit of the Puxi Photovoltaic Project of the Dadu River Ashui (New Energy) Company under the National Energy Group was successfully connected to the grid, marking the commissioning of the first - phase components of the group's highest - altitude centralized photovoltaic power station [1].

| | | 尿素早评20251117: 价格底部或逐步明朗 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 変化值 变化值 | 单位 | 11月14日 | 11月13日 | | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1652.00 | 1658.00 | -6.00 | -0.36% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1727.00 | 1731.00 | -4.00 | -0.23% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1748.00 | 1754.00 | -6.00 | -0.34% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1600.00 | 1600.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1480.00 | 1480.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the price is under pressure above as downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakens at high prices, while refinery profits improve and supply tightness eases. It's recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, the short - term price may be under pressure due to weak fundamentals, but in the medium - term, the tightening of the ore end in the fourth quarter will support the price, and it's advisable to use range trading. Previous short positions should be held [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On November 17, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,425 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the futures main contract closing price was 17,495 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The trading volume of the futures active contract was 37,346 hands, down 39.18%; the open interest was 38,417 hands, down 11.62% [1]. - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,066 dollars/ton, down 0.43%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.47, down 0.45% [1]. Industry News - From November 7 to November 13, the weekly operating rate of primary lead enterprises was 67.57%, unchanged from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 48.2%, down 2.5 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.56%, up 1.34 percentage points [1]. - On November 14, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons or 0.67% to 222,475 tons, all from Singapore warehouses [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The import of lead concentrates has no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operating rate of primary lead fluctuates slightly. In the secondary lead sector, the operating rate in Anhui rebounds after restart, while that in Henan declines due to environmental protection. The demand side improves, but high prices weaken downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - On November 17, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,420 yuan/ton, down 0.62%; the futures main contract closing price was 22,425 yuan/ton, down 1.39%. The trading volume of the futures active contract was 123,632 hands, up 26.56%; the open interest was 100,153 hands, down 2.71% [1]. - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 3,014.5 dollars/ton, down 0.86%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.44, down 0.53% [1]. Industry News - From November 7 to November 13, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 57.59%, up 2.46 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.65 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.31%, down 1.32 percentage points [1]. - In September 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 127,600 metal tons, down 13% month - on - month but up 25.5% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to September was 1,117,900 metal tons, up 17.5% year - on - year [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Refineries actively purchase domestic ores, and the domestic ore shortage persists, leading to continuous declines in processing fees. The supply side has good profits and production enthusiasm, with monthly production expected to be around 600,000 tons. The demand side is weak, affected by cold weather and environmental protection [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions, and use range trading mainly [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are range - bound, and geopolitical risks remain a potential upward driving force. The downside space for crude oil is limited, with support at $55 for WTI crude oil due to US shale oil cost support, OPEC+ actively adjusting production growth rates to ease crude oil inventory accumulation pressure, and the end of the US government shutdown leading to a low risk of macro - economic recession. [1][4][74] - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long near $55 for WTI crude oil and the opportunity to go long on option volatility brought by geopolitical situation changes. [4][74] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The oil price was range - bound this week with increased amplitude. It dropped significantly due to the bearish OPEC report during the week but then recovered some losses. As of November 13, WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $58.60 per barrel, Brent at $63.11 per barrel, and SC crude oil futures active contract at 449.5 yuan per barrel. [9] - The monthly spread continued to decline with signs of gradual stabilization. [10] - The CFTC持仓 report was postponed. As of the week ending November 4, Brent fund net long positions were 152,761 lots, a decrease of 21,126 lots from the previous period, while diesel net long positions increased by 6,957 lots. [14] 2. Crude Oil Supply - OPEC+ production growth slowed down in October. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased by 106,000 barrels per day month - on - month in October. OPEC production increased by 33,000 barrels per day month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's production growth rate declined, and some countries like Iran and Kazakhstan had production declines. OPEC+ decided to moderately increase production by 137,000 barrels per day on November 2 and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. [20] - US crude oil daily production increased slightly. As of the week ending November 7, US crude oil daily production was 1,386,200 barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous period. The OPEC report revised up the US crude oil production increase in 2025 to 410,000 barrels per day and kept the increase in 2026 at 100,000 barrels per day. [28] 3. Crude Oil Demand - In the US, gasoline and diesel demand rebounded, while jet fuel demand declined from its high due to the previous US government shutdown. As of the week ending November 7, gasoline demand was 9,028,000 barrels per day, an increase of 154,000 barrels per day from the previous period; diesel demand was 4,018,000 barrels per day, an increase of 308,000 barrels per day from the previous period; jet fuel demand was 1,636,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 45,000 barrels per day from the previous period. Diesel crack spread declined after rising, while gasoline crack spread was at a five - year high. US refinery estimated profit slightly declined, still at a moderately high level, and refinery utilization rate increased. [32][41][46] - In China, crude oil processing volume continued to grow. From June to October, China's crude oil processing volume increased year - on - year. In October, it was 63.43 million tons, an increase of 743,000 tons from the previous month and 3.892 million tons from the same period last year. [51] 4. Crude Oil Inventory - In the US, crude oil inventory increased significantly but remained at a low level in the past five years. As of the week ending November 7, US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 427.581 million barrels, an increase of 6.413 million barrels from the previous period; SPR inventory was 410.393 million barrels, an increase of 798,000 barrels from the previous period. Gasoline and diesel continued to draw down inventory, while jet fuel inventory increased slightly. [57][63] - For OECD, the surplus pressure gradually increased. In October 2025, the global crude oil monthly supply was 108.18 million barrels per day, demand was 103.75 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 4.43 million barrels per day. OECD continued to accumulate inventory, with the inventory at the end of October at 2.903 billion barrels, an increase of 250 million barrels from the previous period. [70] 5. Summary and Outlook - The short - term oil price is range - bound, and geopolitical risks are a potential upward driving force. The downside space for crude oil is limited, with support at $55 for WTI crude oil. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - position opportunity near $55 for WTI crude oil and the long - position opportunity for option volatility due to geopolitical changes. [74]