Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251119: Slightly Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts Support Copper Prices" [2] Report Core View - Overseas copper mines face production disruptions, but the slightly increased probability of a Fed rate cut in December due to weak US employment performance may lead to a sideways consolidation of Shanghai copper prices [3] Data Summary Shanghai Copper Futures - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 86,450, a decrease of 800 from the previous day; the trading volume was 101,029 lots, an increase of 2,940 lots; the open interest was 179,927 lots, a decrease of 15,531 lots; the inventory was 56,965 tons, an increase of 3,909 tons [3] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,510, a decrease of 505; the average discount of SMM flat - water copper was 65, an increase of 35; the average premium of SMM premium copper was 165, an increase of 45 [3] - The average discount of SMM wet - process copper was - 55, a decrease of 60; the average premium of SMM Guixi copper was 205, an increase of 70; the average discount of EQ copper was - 100, a decrease of 70 [3] - The average SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium was 279.72, an increase of 0.17; the average SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) was 32, unchanged; the average SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) was 47, unchanged [3] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 120, a decrease of 110; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 0, unchanged; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 40, an increase of 60 [3] London Copper - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,766.5, a decrease of 68.5; the total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory was 140,500 tons [3] - The spread between the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contracts was - 32.62, a decrease of 32.62; the spread between the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contracts was 110.75, an increase of 110.75 [3] - The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0295, an increase of 0.02 [3] COMEX Copper - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.05, a decrease of 0.08; the total inventory was 381,296 tons, an increase of 7,992 tons [3] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Supply - There are disruptions in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, resulting in a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in January decreased month - on - month [3] Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper plate strips, copper tubes, and brass rods increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rods decreased. The weakening of copper prices led to an increase in new downstream orders [3] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased compared to last week [3] Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions cautiously or stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple Fed officials' hawkish remarks have put pressure on precious metal prices. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped below 40%. Short - term precious metal prices may adjust due to upcoming US economic data and uncertain future expectations. However, factors such as global debt expansion, fiscal deficit growth, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 929.46 yuan/gram on 2025 - 11 - 18, down 23.74 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 307,687.00, and the open interest was 101,723.00, down 29,322.00 from the previous week. The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 930.22 yuan/gram, down 16.28 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 82,068.00, and the open interest was 232,228.00, down 946.00 from the previous week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 11,933.00 yuan/ten - gram on 2025 - 11 - 18, down 418.00 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 1,026,209.00, and the open interest was 233,702.00. The closing price of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 11,970.00 yuan/ten - gram, down 356.00 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 759,026.00, and the open interest was 51,236.00 [1]. - **COMEX International Gold**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 4045.10 US dollars/ounce on 2025 - 11 - 18, down 39.30 US dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 231,322.00, and the open interest was - 12,222.00. The London gold spot price was 4071.10 US dollars/ounce. The SPDR gold ETF holding was 1041.43 tons, down 2.57 tons from the previous week [1]. - **COMEX International Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 50.05 US dollars/ounce on 2025 - 11 - 18, down 0.35 US dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 11,693.00, and the open interest was 70,253.00. The London silver spot price was 52.01 US dollars/ounce [1]. Important Information - Trump's chief economic advisor Hasset said that AI - driven productivity gains may lead to a "quiet period" in the job market, and the Fed should be truly "data - driven" [1]. - Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a December rate cut, while Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a slow - paced policy approach [1]. Trading Strategy - Wait for price pull - backs to enter long positions. For London gold, pay attention to support levels around 3850 - 3950 and resistance levels around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, focus on support around 870 - 890 and resistance around 960 - 1000. For London silver, watch support around 38 - 45 and resistance around 52 - 55. For Shanghai silver, look at support around 10000 - 11000 and resistance around 12400 - 13000 [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core View - Overseas copper mines face production disruptions, but the cautious or non - supportive stance of multiple Fed officials towards a December rate cut may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai copper prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data 1. Shanghai Copper Futures - On November 17, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86,450, down 450 from the previous day; trading volume was 101,029 hands, down 2,627; open interest was 179,927 hands, down 12,366; inventory was 56,965 tons, up 7,135; the basis was 60, down 135 [1] - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 86,510, down 585; SMM flat - copper average premium/discount was 65, up 60; SMM premium - copper average premium/discount was 165, up 50 [1] 2. London Copper - On November 17, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic session) was 10,766.5, down 79.5; LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0, down 3.88; LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0, down 139.44; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0295, up 0.02 [1] 3. COMEX Copper - On November 17, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.9895, down 0.07; total inventory was 384,517, up 5,078 [1] Group 4: Supply, Demand and Inventory Analysis 1. Supply - Multiple overseas copper mines have production disruptions, making China's copper concentrate import index continuously negative, indicating a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation; scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees have widened; copper smelter maintenance capacity in November decreased month - on - month [1] 2. Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper products, copper wire and cable, copper paint packaging, copper plate and strip, copper tubes, and brass rods increased compared to last week, while that of recycled copper rods decreased; lower copper prices led to an increase in downstream new orders [1] 3. Inventory - China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [1] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can try short positions on the main contract at high prices. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upside of the futures market. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the market trading is light, and the downstream is resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.10% to 8,980 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: In the southwest production area, it has gradually returned to the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces in late October, and the operating rate decreased significantly. In the north, the number of open furnaces increased steadily. After offsetting, the industrial silicon output in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production cut situation, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt range - bound operations and continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - **Prices**: N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 increased by 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.85% to 52,210 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production cut situation, and some silicon material factories may have new capacity put into production. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to decrease month - on - month to about 120,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market trading was light, with few new transactions. The downstream was highly resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips with a light position, and continuously monitor the implementation of the silicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The lead price is under pressure above due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved refinery profits, and better supply tightness. The previous short positions should be held, and continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials on refinery operations [1] - The zinc market fundamentals remain weak, and the zinc price may be under short - term pressure. In the medium - term, the fourth - quarter ore supply will tighten, providing some support to the zinc price. The trading strategy is to hold previous short positions and conduct range trading, while remaining vigilant about potential risks [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price Movement**: On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.72% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures also dropped by 0.72% [1] - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise, but it has no substantial impact on refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans. In the secondary lead sector, operations in Anhui recovered and climbed after resuming production, while those in Henan declined due to environmental protection. The terminal market improved, and the demand for lead batteries increased [1] - **Supply - demand Situation**: Downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened at high lead prices, refinery profits improved, and the supply shortage improved [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous short positions [1] Zinc - **Price Movement**: On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.36% compared to the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures dropped by 0.69%. The zinc ingot premium in Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, while that in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, and that in Guangdong decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamentals**: Refineries actively purchased domestic zinc ores, the domestic ore supply was tight, and processing fees were expected to decline. The refinery profit and production enthusiasm improved, and the monthly output was expected to remain around 600,000 tons. The demand was weak, and some downstream operations were affected by cold weather and environmental protection [1] - **Supply - demand Situation**: The zinc market fundamentals were weak in the short - term, and the zinc price may be under pressure. In the medium - term, the tightening of ore supply will support the zinc price [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and conduct range trading [1]

短期供需压力难解，关注预期变动 风险提示：伊朗限气预期变动。 [甲ta醇ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 11 月 18 日 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《甲醇周报20240719：重回起点之后？》 《甲醇周报 20240816：短期震荡寻底， 但不必过度悲观》 《甲醇周报 20240913：抢跑宏观预期反 弹，等待回踩确认底部》 《甲醇周报20241108：短期有回调压力》 《甲醇周报 20241122：利多或已逐步兑 现》 《甲醇周报 20241206：关注回调后的试 多机会》 《甲醇周报 20250317：甲醇估值已不再 便宜》 《甲醇周报 20250402：利多难寻》 《甲醇周报 20250514：等待反弹后的沽 空机会》 《甲醇周报 20250526：向上动力不足, 偏弱震荡为主》 《甲醇周报 20250715：估值偏高，驱动 向下》 《甲醇周报 20250819：偏弱震荡为主》 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait - and - see stance, with an expected price range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][125] Core Views - Nickel: Under macro - level pressure, the supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is rising, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs will keep stainless steel prices running weakly [6][125] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel declined by 2.16% weekly, with trading volume dropping to 450,600 lots (- 95,900) and open interest falling to 112,200 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel fell 1.20% weekly, with trading volume rising to 41,100 lots (+ 3,600) [11] - The basis premium was 1,950 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21] - In September, the Philippines' nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase [26] - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week, and port inventory decreased by 50,000 wet tons [28] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 12 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium to scrap stainless steel widened [34] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month increase and a 47.2% year - on - year increase. Imports are expected to decline in October [39] - In November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization declined, while those in Indonesia increased. Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [47][49] Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the production and capacity utilization of refined nickel declined, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [53][57] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [61] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [66][114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, while imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [70][117] New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely low [75] - In November, the production of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month but increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [79] - In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [81] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [87] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory increased by 3,981 tons [88][93] 1.5 Cost and Outlook - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP - integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over nickel matte - integrated production [98] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to macro - level pressure, loose fundamentals, and rising inventory [99] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures declined by 1.51% weekly, with the basis widening to 1,080 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 490,300 lots (unchanged), and open interest increased to 167,700 lots (+ 110,600) [102] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost support [105] - The profitability of 200 - series stainless steel improved, the losses of 300 - series widened, and 400 - series turned from loss to profit [110] 2.3 Fundamental Analysis - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [117] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased, with inventory of all series (200, 300, and 400) rising [123] 2.5 Outlook - Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to run weakly [125]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the delivery of the SHFE Lead 2511 contract ended, some supplies returned to the spot market. With general downstream consumption and production based on sales, short - term lead prices are expected to face downward pressure. Considering the continuous shortage of raw materials, it may limit the subsequent start - up of smelters. Attention should be paid to the support level around 17,000 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter start - up [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 1.01% month - on - month to 17,425 yuan/ton; SHFE lead main contract closing price rose by 0.43% to 17,495 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.03% to 2,066 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 Basis There is no specific analysis or conclusion about the basis in the content other than presenting some basis - related data charts. 3.3 Raw Material Situation - Domestic lead concentrate processing fees remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fees remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remains unchanged, and with precious metal prices fluctuating at high levels, TC quotes are stable but tend to weaken. Smelter profits are acceptable, and as of November 7, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 163.6 yuan/ton [32]. - As of November 14, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The automotive battery has entered the peak scrapping season, and most large smelters reported sufficient battery arrivals, and the price did not rise with the lead price [46]. 3.4 Primary Lead - The primary lead start - up rate remained flat month - on - month at 67.57%. The production of major deliverable primary lead brands in China had small fluctuations, with some smelters reducing production due to raw material shortages [33]. - The weekly production and maintenance arrangements of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises showed that the total weekly production in the week of November 7 was 50,050 tons, 49,850 tons in the week of November 14, and an expected 50,150 tons this week. Some enterprises in Anhui were under maintenance, while those in Inner Mongolia resumed normal production [38]. 3.5 Recycled Lead - As of November 14, the comprehensive profit of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 361 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was 146 yuan/ton. With lead prices consolidating at high levels and scrap battery prices remaining stable, the profits of recycled lead smelters improved significantly [52]. - As of November 13, the raw material inventory of recycled lead increased to 152,750 tons, and the finished product inventory decreased to 4,400 tons. Due to limited primary lead supplies and firm quotes, some downstream buyers turned to recycled lead, resulting in a reduction in recycled lead finished product inventory [55]. - The recycled lead enterprise start - up rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 48.2%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of recycled lead was 59,400 tons, showing a decline. The start - up in Henan decreased significantly due to environmental protection control, while that in Anhui increased as smelters resumed production. Some smelters said they might stop production for maintenance around late November if the raw material inventory continued to decline [58]. 3.6 Lead Battery - The lead battery start - up rate increased by 1.34 percentage points to 70.56%. The resumption of production of enterprises that previously reduced production due to equipment maintenance or high lead prices drove the continuous increase in start - up. However, in the terminal market, the peak season of the automotive battery market was not prosperous, and dealers purchased according to demand. Some medium - and large - sized enterprises had weak new orders and actively reduced production to destock, so the overall battery start - up had not returned to the level in October [66]. 3.7 Import and Export - As of November 7, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of November 17, the import profit was - 406.85 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [77]. 3.8 Inventory - As of November 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 38,600 tons, showing an increase; the factory inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands was 3,700 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. Due to delivery and position transfer, the factory inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the social inventory increased. With smelters resuming production and the end of the 2511 contract delivery, the decline in factory inventory is expected to slow down [88]. - As of November 14, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 42,800 tons, showing a month - on - month increase; as of November 13, the LME inventory was 222,500 tons, also showing an increase [91]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet showed the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side is tightening with rising costs, providing some support for silicon prices. However, the demand side remains weak, with downstream buyers mainly making rigid purchases, limiting the upside space for silicon prices. It is expected that the short - term silicon price will remain in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [3] - For polysilicon, there is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". Spot transactions of silicon materials are under pressure. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, and investors with long positions should protect their profits. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - The price of petroleum coke has risen slightly, while the prices of silica and electrodes have remained stable. As the southwest production area enters the flat - dry water period, the power cost has increased significantly. [3] - In October, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 was - 917 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 112 yuan/ton, and the average profit of 421 was - 564 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 101 yuan/ton. [38] 3.1.2 Supply - Sichuan has entered the flat - water period with higher electricity prices, and Yunnan has entered the dry - water period. Factories in these two regions have expanded their production suspension scope due to increased costs and no obvious upward drive for industrial silicon prices. The output in the northwest region also decreased slightly last week, and the overall supply shows a contracting trend. It is expected that the output in November will drop to less than 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 12%. [3] - On the week of November 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises decreased by 6 compared with the previous week. [39] 3.1.3 Demand - The production of polysilicon is expected to decline, the organic silicon industry has a relatively consistent expectation of production reduction, and the silicon - aluminum alloy has no production increase or decrease plan with stable operation. [3] 3.1.4 Inventory - Except for some silicon enterprises in the southwest that have reduced production, most silicon enterprises are in normal production. Due to the relatively low price, the silicon enterprises' willingness to ship is low, and the inventory of silicon enterprises continues to accumulate. [3] 3.1.5 Market Outlook - It is expected that the short - term silicon price will maintain a range - bound pattern, with an operating range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro sentiment and the start - up situation of the supply side. [3] 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - Last week's polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 200 tons. As of November 13, the polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons. In October, the polysilicon output was 134,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with September. In November, some manufacturers started to reduce production, and the monthly output may decline to about 120,000 tons. [69] 3.2.2 Demand - The terminal installation rush in the first half of the year over - drafted part of the demand in the second half of the year. The number of domestic bidding projects has decreased, and overseas demand has declined. The component side is under great pressure. With the increase in costs, there is an expectation of price increase for components, but the downstream acceptance is not high. Some component factories have reduced their start - up, and it is expected that the output this month will decline by about 2GW. [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 13, the total polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42GW. As of November 14, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 8,120 lots. [3] 3.2.4 Market Outlook - There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". Spot transactions of silicon materials are under pressure. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, and investors with long positions should protect their profits. Continued attention should be paid to the platform launch and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [3] 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Supply - In October, China's DMC start - up rate was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 percentage points, and the DMC output was 209,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 600 tons. Recently, the previously overhauled devices in Yunnan and Jiangxi have gradually resumed production, and the supply shows an increasing trend. [101] 3.3.2 Price - As of November 14, the average price of DMC was 25,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.87%; the average price of 107 rubber was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.52%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. [108] 3.3.3 Market Outlook - The industry has reached a consensus on production reduction, and the current inventory pressure is not large, so the price has increased. Future attention should be paid to the results of industry meeting consultations. [108] 3.4 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Start - up Rate - On the week of November 13, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 percentage points, and the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 60.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. [116] 3.4.2 Price - As of November 14, the average price of ADC12 was 21,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.93%; the average price of A356 was 22,300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. [119] 3.5 Inventory - As of November 13, the industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 546,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 172,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 600 tons. As of November 14, the number of registered warehouse receipts on the exchange was 45,345 lots, equivalent to 226,700 tons of spot, and the number of warehouse receipts continued to decrease. [130]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation is a result of market consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, prices are supported at low levels. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 increased from 1652.00 yuan/ton to 1662.00 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; UR05 rose from 1727.00 yuan/ton to 1737.00 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; UR09 went up from 1748.00 yuan/ton to 1755.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% increase. [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong decreased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1590.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change; Henan dropped from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.62% change; Hebei fell from 1630.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton, a - 1.23% change; Jiangsu declined from 1590.00 yuan/ton to 1580.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change. [1] - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 930.00 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased from 2980.00 yuan/ton to 3000.00 yuan/ton, a 0.67% increase; the price of melamine in Jiangsu rose from 5150.00 yuan/ton to 5200.00 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase. [1] Key Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, with a high of 1667 yuan/ton, a low of 1641 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1662 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1656 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 254752 hands. [1] Trading Strategy - Sell option profit - taking, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term. [1]