Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: On October 15, the nickel market showed a weak fundamental situation with inventory pressure, but the valuation was at a low level. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2]. - Stainless steel: On October 15, the stainless - steel market had a loose fundamental situation, with inventory accumulation and a loosening cost support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Nickel - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121,010 yuan/ton, 120,900 yuan/ton, 121,330 yuan/ton, and 121,550 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 83,761 hands (-26,323), and the open interest was 68,681 hands (-4,426). LME3 - month nickel official price was 15,210 dollars/ton, up 0.10% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price was 122,300 yuan/ton. Nickel bean average price was 123,550 yuan/ton. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price was 123,500 yuan/ton. 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) average price was 121,450 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,558 tons (+1,531). LME nickel registered warehouse receipts were 240,486 tons (-240,486), and cancelled warehouse receipts were 0 tons (-6,270). The total LME nickel inventory was 246,756 tons (+3,498) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August 2025, global refined nickel production was 323,300 tons, consumption was 273,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 49,900 tons. From January to August 2025, global refined nickel production was 2,549,400 tons, consumption was 2,244,300 tons, with a supply surplus of 305,100 tons [2]. Stainless Steel - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,345 yuan/ton, 12,525 yuan/ton, 12,560 yuan/ton, and 12,660 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 113,216 hands (-37,540), and the open interest was 193,490 hands (+3,239) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price was 13,550 yuan/ton. 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) average price was 12,500 yuan/ton. 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) average price was 25,300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory decreased. The 300 - series social inventory last week was 619,400 tons (+33,900) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report [1] Core View - The report's view on methanol is that it will experience low-level fluctuations, and it's necessary to wait before going long. Methanol prices are relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short-term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment drive. The inventory turning point may occur around mid-November, and the subsequent possible driving force lies in potential supply reductions, such as the expected gas restrictions in Iran. Overall, it's advisable to wait before going long on methanol [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2,298 yuan/ton on October 15, 2025, up 1.06% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2,311 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; MA09 closed at 2,269 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The spot price in Taicang was 2,310 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Spot Prices**: Prices in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,305 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it rose 2.5 yuan to 2,270 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, it dropped 7.5 yuan to 2,072.5 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it dropped 17.5 yuan to 2,060 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 12 yuan/ton on October 15, up 1 yuan from the previous day [1] 2. Cost and Profit - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal prices in Baotou, Datong, and Yulin increased, with the largest increase of 2.10% in Yulin. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit was 312.20 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan from the previous day; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 165.20 yuan/ton, up 30.20 yuan. Northwest MTO profit remained unchanged at - 502 yuan/ton, while East China MTO profit dropped 142 yuan to - 1003.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.49% [1] - **Downstream Profit**: Acetic acid profit was 554.53 yuan/ton, down 5.21%; MTBE profit was 480.20 yuan/ton, down 9.43%; formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged [1] 3. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: Methanol's main contract MA2601 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2,275 yuan/ton and closing at 2,298 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 736,803 lots, and open interest was 1,038,960 lots, showing a decrease in both volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese enterprises to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships, with 11 ships sanctioned in total, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity from a certain Middle - Eastern country [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The price of Shanghai copper may be weak first and then strong due to the uncertainty of whether China and the US will impose additional tariffs, the expectation of future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - On October 15, 2025, the closing price was 85,800, up 1,390 from the previous day; the trading volume was 125,819 lots, down 85,165 from the previous day; the open interest was 175,899 lots, down 11,667 from the previous day; the inventory was 44,531 tons, up 8,236 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was - 565, down 2,145 from the previous day [1] 2. Shanghai Copper Basis or Spot Premium and Discount - SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price on October 15, 2025 was 85,235, down 755 from the previous day; SMM flat - water copper opening premium and discount - average price was 70, up 50 from the previous day; SMM premium copper opening premium and discount - average price was 130, up 30 from the previous day; SMM wet - process copper opening premium and discount - average price was 0, up 45 from the previous day; SMM Guixi copper opening premium and discount - average price was 150, up 20 from the previous day; EQ copper opening premium and discount: average price was - 90, up 15 from the previous day; SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium - average price was 369.43, up 0.12 from the previous day; SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) - average price was 45, unchanged from the previous day; SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) - average price was 52, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3. Spread (Near - month and Far - month) - On October 15, 2025, the spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous - 1 was - 150, down 140 from the previous day; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - 1 and Shanghai copper continuous - 2 was - 50, down 80 from the previous day; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - 2 and Shanghai copper continuous - 1 was 60, down 30 from the previous day [1] 4. London Copper - On October 15, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,576, down 22.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 27.94, down 26.93 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 171.49, up 18.49 from the previous day; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1127, up 0.15 from the previous day [1] 5. COMEX Copper - On October 15, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.972, down 0.16 from the previous day; the total inventory was 343,235, up 2,360 from the previous day [1] 6. Key Information and Investment Strategy - **Supply Side**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disruptions, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The expected increase in scrap copper supply has led to a rise in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees. Copper smelters' maintenance capacity in October increased month - on - month [1] - **Demand Side**: The shipping enthusiasm of domestic electrolytic copper spot traders has weakened, resulting in low downstream purchasing sentiment [1] - **Inventory Side**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [1] 7. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly lay out long positions after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The rebound of the urea futures market is mainly due to short - term profit - taking by short sellers. The spot market remains dull. The previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may not be able to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate at a low level. However, the current urea valuation is already at a low level, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Price) - On October 15, UR01 was 1597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan or 0.19% from October 14; UR05 was 1671 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or - 0.12%; UR09 was 1707 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan or - 0.29% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - On October 15, the prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1550 yuan/ton, 1540 yuan/ton, 1590 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, and 1560 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Shanxi was 1460 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.68% from October 14 [1]. Basis and Spread - On October 15, the spread between Shandong spot and UR01 was - 121 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan from October 14; the spread between 01 - 05 was - 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [1]. Upstream Cost - On October 15, the anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - On October 15, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1600 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1611 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1596 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1600 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1604 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 322,686 lots [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that methanol is in a low - level oscillation, and it's necessary to wait before going long. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefins, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and the subsequent driving force may come from potential supply reduction, such as Iran's gas - restriction expectation. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2298 yuan/ton on October 15, 2025, up 1.06% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2311 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; MA09 closed at 2269 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The spot price in Taicang was 2310 yuan/ton, up 1.09% [1]. - Spot prices in different regions: Shandong remained unchanged at 2305 yuan/ton; Guangdong rose 0.11% to 2270 yuan/ton; Shaanxi decreased 0.36% to 2072.50 yuan/ton; Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton and 2280 yuan/ton respectively; Inner Mongolia decreased 0.84% to 2060 yuan/ton [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 1 yuan/ton to 12 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Raw Material Prices - Coal prices: Ordos Q5500 increased 0.95% to 530 yuan/ton; Datong Q5500 increased 1.24% to 610 yuan/ton; Yulin Q6000 increased 2.10% to 607.50 yuan/ton [1]. - Natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit decreased 6.30 yuan/ton to 312.20 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol profit increased 30.20 yuan/ton to - 165.20 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit remained unchanged at - 502 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased 16.49% to - 1003.07 yuan/ton; acetic acid profit decreased 5.21% to 554.53 yuan/ton; MTBE profit decreased 9.43% to 480.20 yuan/ton; formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged at - 268 yuan/ton and 340 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.4. Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2275 yuan/ton and closing at 2298 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 736,803 lots, and open interest was 1,038,960, showing reduced volume and positions [1]. - Foreign information: The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese enterprises to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships, with 11 ships sanctioned so far, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity from a certain Middle - Eastern country [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1].

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20251016：沪铅或有承压；沪锌关注海外结构性风险 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/16 指标 单位 | | | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 16,900.00 | 0.15% | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 沪铅期现价格 | 元/吨 | 17,110.00 | 0.35% | | | 沪铅基差 | | 元/吨 | -210.00 | -35.00 | | | 升贴水-上海 | | 元/吨 | | - - | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 升贴水-LME 3-15 | | 美元/吨 美元/吨 | -44.09 -90.90 | 0.39 -15.10 | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 价差 | 元/吨 | 90.00 | 90.00 | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | | 元/吨 | -20.00 | -10.00 | | | 铅 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | | ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251016：关注供给端变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/16 | 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 8,570.00 | 0.59% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 730.00 | -50.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 51.25 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 元/吨 期货主力合约收盘价 | 50,865.00 | 1.75% | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 基差 元/吨 元/吨 | 385.00 9,300.00 | -875.00 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,250.00 | ...

贵金属周报-黄金和白银 研究所 王文虎 从业资格证号：F03087656 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472 联系方式：021-51801878 黄金和白银 1、伦敦与美国白银市场开展反向套利行为需要预先持有大量白银现货，促使部分交易员包下部分航班 货舱将美国和中国的白银运往伦敦，这种供给紧张局面随着伦敦白银1个月期租赁利率有所下降或初现缓解。 2、美国和荷兰等国家养老金投资计划改革，引发向黄金和股票等风险资产配置预期，形成对贵金属价 格中期支撑。 3、美国就业表现趋弱引导美联储降息预期升温，美德等全球多国财政主动扩张预期，叠加多国央行持 续购金、地缘政治风险难解，形成对贵金属价格长期支撑。 4、欧洲和英国央行2025年底前或最多降息1次；日本东京9月消费端通胀CPI年率为2.5%低于预期和前值， 叠加日本政府政治局势动荡，使日本央行2025年底前或难加息。 美联储未来降息和停止缩表预期支撑贵金属价格 2025年10月15日 投资策略：预计贵金属价格或易涨难跌，建议投资者前期多单谨慎持有或等待逢价格回落后布局多单为 主，需要警惕伦敦白银现货供给紧张缓解、美国联邦政府停摆危机结束等利空因素，伦敦金关注360 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, along with the uncertainty of whether China and the US will impose additional tariffs, and the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, which may not change the tight supply - demand situation, could lead to wide - range fluctuations in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors mainly wait for price drops to establish long positions, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin at around 260,000 - 265,000 and 290,000 - 300,000 respectively, and those of London tin at around 33,000 - 35,000 and 38,000 - 40,000 respectively [3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both basically within a reasonable range. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, the tight domestic tin ore supply - demand situation, and the resumption expectation of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both basically within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai - London tin price is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in the LME. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [11] - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the social inventory of tin ingots in China, the inventory of refined tin in the LME, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad have all decreased compared to last week [13] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates has been oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [19][20] - Multiple factors such as the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia, the commissioning of a new plant in Namibia, the resumption of mines in Myanmar and Congo, and the suspension of tin ore transit exports in Thailand may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production and import volume of domestic tin ore in October [22] - The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [24] - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has increased (remained flat) compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on its smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase (decrease) month - on - month [28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month. The new tin smelter in the US and the planned production and export increase in Indonesia are the reasons [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month [43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries has increased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to trade in the range of 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations and supply - side start - up conditions [3]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of high - level range - bound trading due to the game between policy - favorable expectations and weak fundamentals. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial policies and macro - sentiment [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1产业链价格回顾 - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract was 8,685 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from September 30. Most spot prices remained unchanged, with only the price of the oxygen - free 553 at Tianjin Port down 0.53% [12]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract on October 10, 2025, was 48,965 yuan/ton, down 4.66% from September 30. Spot prices of various polysilicon types remained unchanged [12]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component Prices**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were generally stable, with only minor price changes in some products [12]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy Prices**: As of October 10, the average DMC price was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the 107 - rubber average price was 11,500 yuan/ton, up 3.14% from the previous period; the silicone oil average price was 12,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The ADC12 average price was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous period; the A356 average price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 1.42% from the previous period [12]. 3.2开炉增加，供给持续增量 - **Cost and Profit of Industrial Silicon**: Driven by anti - involution sentiment and increased demand, the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. The power cost in the southwest production area will gradually increase as it transitions from the wet season to the dry season [3]. - **Supply of Industrial Silicon**: In October, Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning to the dry season, leading to increased costs and production cuts by some enterprises. In contrast, small factories in Gansu and Ningxia have completed raw material stockpiling, and the start - up rate in Xinjiang has increased. Overall, the start - up rate has increased [3]. - **Demand for Industrial Silicon**: The production of polysilicon in October may still have a slight increase, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. However, some organic silicon enterprises have maintenance plans, and the start - up rate has declined. Overall, the demand for industrial silicon remains weak [3]. - **Inventory of Industrial Silicon**: The futures warehouse receipts have fluctuated slightly. After the holiday, downstream enterprises have successively inquired, but some manufacturers' orders have not been delivered, and factory inventories have accumulated [3]. 3.3光伏产业运行平稳，关注终端需求 - **Polysilicon**: In September, the polysilicon output was 130,000 tons, basically the same as in August. The cumulative output from January to September was 941,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 33%. It is expected that the output in October will maintain an incremental trend, with a month - on - month increase of about 3,000 - 5,000 tons. As of October 9, the total polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.78 GW. As of October 10, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 8,140 lots [3]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The market was sluggish during the holiday, with little market trading [80]. - **Battery Cell**: The price was stable [87]. - **Component**: The component installation did not meet expectations, and the price was under pressure. The lifting of the component export tax - refund policy is still undetermined. If the policy is implemented, it may stimulate component export demand in the next few months. The pre - implementation inventory rush of India's "double - anti" policy will also support exports to some extent. Domestically, the front - loaded installation in the first half of the year has overdrawn some demand in the second half, resulting in a decrease in domestic tender and bidding projects, lower - than - expected centralized installation, and a decline in distributed trading volume. The component segment is under great pressure, and there is no obvious restocking action for upstream demand [3]. 3.4支撑有限，有机硅价格大稳小动 - **Start - up Rate**: In September, the start - up rate of China's DMC was 71.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38 percentage points. The DMC output was 210,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,900 tons. Recently, a monomer factory has a maintenance plan, and the start - up rate may decline slightly [108]. - **Price**: As of October 10, the average DMC price was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the 107 - rubber average price was 11,500 yuan/ton, up 3.14% from the previous period; the silicone oil average price was 12,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Due to factory maintenance, the supply has tightened periodically, and the price has increased [114]. 3.5铝合金开工回升 - **Start - up Rate**: In the week of October 9, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points [122]. - **Price**: As of October 10, the average ADC12 price was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous period; the average A356 price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 1.42% from the previous period [125]. 3.6库存维持高位 - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of October 9, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 167,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons. As of October 10, the exchange - registered warehouse receipts were 50,281 lots, equivalent to 251,400 tons of spot [139]. - **Polysilicon Inventory**: As of October 9, the total polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons [74].