Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The market for ethylene glycol and related products shows complex trends. The supply and demand situation is influenced by factors such as production capacity utilization, inventory levels, and market transactions. The price of ethylene glycol and related products fluctuates, with some products showing small increases or decreases, and the market is in a state of adjustment and change [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Spot Prices**: On November 7, 2025, the spot price of East China ethylene oxide was 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of methanol was 2,095 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia brown coal (Q3500) was 290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the main contract of GCEED was 3,942 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; the closing price of the nearby contract of GCEED was 3,848 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the settlement price of the nearby contract of GCEED was 3,848 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of East China diethylene glycol was 0 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day; the CFEI diethylene glycol index was 4,010 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price difference between the far - and near - month contracts of GCEED on November 7, 2025, was - 96 yuan/ton, compared with - 54 yuan/ton previously; the basis was 68 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Product Index Prices**: On November 7, 2025, the CFEI polyester fiber index was 8,525 yuan/ton, up 0.29%; the CFEI polyester staple fiber index was 6,330 yuan/ton, up 0.08%; the CFEI bottle - grade chip index was 5,740 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [1] Production and Operation Conditions - **Production Capacity Utilization**: On November 7, 2025, the load rate of polyester plant in the coal - based ethylene glycol industrial chain was 59.57%, unchanged; the load rate of textile machinery in Zhejiang in the PTA industrial chain was 72.28%, unchanged [1] - **Profit Situation**: On November 7, 2025, the after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas device was - 144.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.91 yuan compared with the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The market supply is relatively abundant, and the supply - demand relationship is in a state of adjustment. The trading volume and price of ethylene glycol and related products are affected by various factors such as market expectations, production costs, and downstream demand. The market presents a trend of narrow - range fluctuations, and investors need to pay attention to market information and price changes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate present a pattern of strong supply and demand. However, there is an expectation that the power demand may peak and weaken at the end of the year. The downstream market is adopting a wait - and - see attitude towards high prices, leading to a sluggish spot market. It is expected that the game between bulls and bears will intensify, and the price fluctuation risk of lithium carbonate will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, and the operating range is expected to be between 71,000 and 91,000 [6][96] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, with a weekly decline of 0.07%. The trading volume decreased to 3.47 million lots (-180,000), and the open interest decreased to 491,000 lots (-194,000). The basis was at a discount of 1,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In October, China's lithium spodumene production was 7,350 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, while lithium mica production was 7,700 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5%. In September, the import volume of lithium concentrate reached 520,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In August, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China reached 128,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6% [13][17][21] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In November, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 30,164 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [26] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In September, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [31][33] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 45%, with a scheduled production of 29,970 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In September, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [40] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 88,990 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. In November, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 341,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 46% [43] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 19,234 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. In September, the import volume increased while the export volume decreased [44] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In November, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 49%, with a scheduled production of 92,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. In September, the export volume increased slightly [53] 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In November, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, with a scheduled production of 11,990 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, with a scheduled production of 13,585 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 75% [58] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In November, the scheduled production of electrolyte was 210,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 28.0%. In September, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [63] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In September, the production of power batteries was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. The loading volume was 76 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.4%. Last week, the production of ternary power cells was 7.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, and the production of lithium iron phosphate power cells was 22.41 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% [66][67] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a month - on - month increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The sales volume was 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [72] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In November, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries was 55.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 31.2%. In September, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.0%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.34 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 46.3% [78] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In September, the production of Chinese smartphones was 122.75 million units, a month - on - month increase of 22.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The production of Chinese micro - electronic computers was 30.98 million units, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [81] 3.5 Cost - The prices of lithium ore, lithium spodumene concentrate, and lithium mica all decreased. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by 17 US dollars per ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 60 yuan per ton [86] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 3,405 tons. Structurally, the inventory of smelters decreased by 1,336 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,280 tons, and other inventories decreased by 790 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 740 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 663 tons [91][92] 3.7 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the fundamentals show strong supply and demand, but there are concerns about end - year demand weakening. The game between bulls and bears will intensify, and price fluctuations will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, with an expected operating range of 71,000 - 91,000 [96]

有色金属周报-锌 原料与需求相搏弈，沪锌高位震荡 2025年11月10日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美国参议院就结束政府"停摆"达成一致，流动性 | | | | | 风险或有所减弱，宏观避险情绪略有好转。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋松有所收紧。近期内外比价虽然有所修复，但 | | | | | 进口锌矿亏损仍在2,000元/金属吨左右，国内炼厂持续抢 | | | | | 购国产锌精矿，国内TC持续下滑，进口矿报价则较为混乱， | | | | | 部分贸易商继续下调TC报价。据SMM消息，贸易商与炼 | 在外盘及板块带动下，沪锌震荡 | | | | 厂成交了12月发运的Antamina锌精矿，成交TC为90美元/ | 上行，加之矿端有所收紧，TC | | | | 干吨左右，货量1万吨，近期另有部分富含锌矿成交于80- | 持续下滑，锌价下方支撑稳固， | | | | 90美元/干吨，货量 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The short - term judgment of methanol is low - level oscillation. The absolute price and relative valuation of methanol are already relatively low, so it is not recommended to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive of methanol is limited due to high expected imports and insufficient downstream restocking power. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the expected gas restriction of inland gas - to - methanol, and the increase in option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased from 2125 yuan/ton to 2112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%; MA05 decreased from 2226 yuan/ton to 2213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%; MA09 decreased from 2230 yuan/ton to 2228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [1] - Methanol spot prices (daily average): In some regions, such as Shandong, it increased from 2172.50 yuan/ton to 2185.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58%, while in other regions like Guangdong and Shaanxi, there was no change [1] - Price differences: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 18.00 yuan/ton [1] 2. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Datong Q5500 increased from 672.50 yuan/ton to 690.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.60%; Yulin Q6000 increased from 670.00 yuan/ton to 680.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49% [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: There was no change in Hohhot and Chongqing [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - to - methanol profit decreased from 125.50 yuan/ton to 112.90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.04%; natural gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged at - 1100.00 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Some downstream products like acetic acid and MTBE saw profit increases, with acetic acid increasing from 391.99 yuan/ton to 410.56 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.74%, and MTBE increasing from 383.68 yuan/ton to 407.28 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15% [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic futures prices: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2122 yuan/ton, closing at 2112 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 915,795 lots and an open interest of 1,390,818 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1] - Foreign information: In other regions of the Middle East, there were different price ranges for ship cargo negotiations, and the CFR China price was in the range of 235 - 248 US dollars/ton [1] 5. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On November 7, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $59.75 per barrel, up 0.54%; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $63.63 per barrel, up 0.39%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan was $581.75 per ton, up 1.04% [1] - The spot price of isomeric xylene in FOB South Korea was $693.50 per ton, up 0.14%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR China's main port was $825.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - **PTA** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,664 yuan per ton, down 0.51%; the settlement price was 4,652 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - The closing price of CZCE TA's near - month contract was 4,616 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 4,608 yuan per ton, up 1.54% [1] - The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,574 yuan per ton, up 0.73%; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,572 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $620.00 per ton, up 0.98% [1] - The near - far month spread was - 44 yuan per ton, an increase of 38 yuan; the basis was - 92 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan [1] - **PX** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,780 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the settlement price was 6,758 yuan per ton, up 0.99% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX's near - month contract was 6,786 yuan per ton, up 0.98%; the settlement price was 6,786 yuan per ton, up 0.98% [1] - The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,502 yuan per ton, up 0.45%; the spot price of p - xylene in CFR Taiwan, China was $826.00 per ton, down 0.12%; the spot price of p - xylene in FOB South Korea was $801.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - The PXN spread was $243.25 per ton, down 2.80%; the PX - MX spread was $131.50 per ton, down 1.50%; the basis was - 278 yuan per ton, an increase of 69 yuan [1] - **PR** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,726 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 5,724 yuan per ton, up 0.92% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PR's near - month contract was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.53%; the settlement price was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.53% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the market price in the South China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [1] - The basis in the East China market was 14 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 64 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1] - **Downstream** - On November 7, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,525 yuan per ton, up 0.29%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, up 0.37% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,050 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, up 2.24% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,330 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,620 yuan per ton, up 0.54%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 88.03%, unchanged; the load rate of PTA factories in the PTA industry chain was 77.42%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 89.70%, unchanged; the load rate of bottle chip factories was 76.55%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] - The sales rate of polyester filament was 48.28%, down 21.72 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 46.68%, down 23.29 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 53.72%, down 89.32 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device of South China Ineos was under maintenance, and the restart date was to be determined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device of Southwest Sichuan Energy Investment was planned to be maintained at the end of this week, possibly shut down for 45 days, which remained to be watched [2] Market Analysis - **PX** - This week, the PX price rebounded after a decline, with the absolute price up 0.4% week - on - week to $823 per ton CFR on Friday. The weekly average price remained strong, up 0.2% week - on - week to $820 per ton CFR. The international oil price continued to be weak, and cost - side support was insufficient. The domestic PX supply remained stable, awaiting the realization of the expected changes in PTA devices [2] - Due to the release of sentiment from the news, the PX2601 contract closed at 6,780 yuan per ton (up 1.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 362,800 lots. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, the PX load could still be effectively maintained even if there were fluctuations in the disproportionation or reform operations of domestic factories such as LIDONG and Hengli. The PX operating rate remained at a high level this year. Recently, market disturbances caused by rumors were obvious. Since 8.7 million tons of PTA devices were put into operation this year, it promoted the annual destocking of PX, which had an obvious supporting effect on PX. As the industry entered the off - season, the upstream would be more sensitive to demand - side feedback [2] - **PTA** - Due to device changes, the TA2601 contract closed at 4,664 yuan per ton (up 0.95%), with an intraday trading volume of 926,200 lots. On Thursday, the sales rate of polyester filament at the end of the session was around 228.61%, which was positive for the PTA market on Friday, and cost support remained. The PTA market rose slightly. The spot supply was sufficient, and the spot basis fluctuated within a limited range. Recently, many PTA device maintenance operations were carried out as planned, and the industry had long anticipated this. However, due to the continuously low processing fee, the impact of device maintenance would be aggravated, and there was actually no unexpected reduction. The domestic demand market was running moderately and weakly, but recently, the inquiry atmosphere for foreign trade orders was active, and subsequent orders would increase. In the short term, the overall downstream demand was acceptable. Generally speaking, the supply side could not eliminate the pressure only by short - term maintenance or shutdown [2] - **PR** - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,710 - 5,810 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures showed a warm - biased shock. Most offers on the supply side were raised, and the downstream purchasing willingness was average, mainly for replenishing stocks on a just - in - time basis [2] - Following the cost movement, the PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton (up 0.95%), with an intraday trading volume of 36,100 lots. The supply - side operation was temporarily stable, and the overall market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream end - users were cautious, mainly following up with small just - in - time orders [2]

1. Report Title - The report is titled "Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251110: Domestic Traditional Consumption Off - season Suppresses Aluminum Prices" [1] 2. Price and Market Data 2.1 Alumina - The national average price of alumina on 2025 - 11 - 07 was 2868.57 yuan/ton, showing a change compared to previous days. Different regions in China had varying alumina average prices, such as 2845 yuan/ton in Shanxi and 2975 yuan/ton in Guizhou on 2025 - 11 - 07. The Australian alumina FOB price was 319 dollars/ton on the same day [2] - Alumina futures had a closing price of 2789 yuan/ton on 2025 - 11 - 07, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The basis and spreads between different contract months also fluctuated [2] 2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - The SMM A00 aluminum - semi - cut price was 21440 yuan/ton on 2025 - 11 - 07. The electrolytic aluminum futures closing price was 21600 yuan/ton, with corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The basis and spreads between different contract months also changed [2] 2.3 Aluminum Alloy - The SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) average price was 22550 yuan/ton on 2025 - 11 - 07. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy and related basis and spreads also showed fluctuations [2] 2.4 London Aluminum - The LME 3 - month aluminum futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10930 on 2025 - 11 - 07. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 134625, and the spreads between different contract months also changed [2] 3. Core Views 3.1 Alumina - Domestic bauxite supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the prices of domestic (Guinea and Australia) bauxite have changed, leading to production losses for domestic and imported bauxite - based alumina. Overseas, new alumina production capacity is coming online, while some domestic alumina production capacity is undergoing phased production cuts or maintenance, reducing the supply - demand surplus. The production losses may limit the downward space of alumina prices [2] 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - On the supply side, high production profits have led to high operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum, but the proportion of molten aluminum production has increased. The expected new replacement capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is limited. On the demand side, the operating capacity of the domestic aluminum processing industry has decreased, and the capacity utilization rates of aluminum cables, profiles, sheets, and foils have declined. On the inventory side, both domestic and LME electrolytic aluminum inventories have decreased. Due to the one - year economic and trade agreement between China and the US, the increasing proportion of domestic molten aluminum production, the hawkish expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season, the Shanghai aluminum price may be adjusted [2] 3.3 Aluminum Alloy - The daily full - cost production cost of China's recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21050 yuan/ton, with negative profits, and the capacity utilization rate has remained flat. The social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy has increased, while the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has decreased (increased). Due to the one - year economic and trade agreement between China and the US, the expected tight supply - demand of domestic scrap aluminum, and the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season, the continuous accumulation of aluminum alloy social inventory may lead to an adjustment of aluminum alloy prices [2] 4. Trading Strategies 4.1 Alumina - Temporarily wait and observe, paying attention to the support level around 2600 - 2700 and the resistance level around 2900 - 3200 (view score: 0) [2] 4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Try shorting the main contract with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support level around 20300 - 20600 and the resistance level around 21800 - 22300 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2600 - 2700 and the resistance level around 2900 - 3000 for London aluminum (view score: - 1) [2] 4.3 Aluminum Alloy - Try shorting the main contract with a light position in the short - term, and hold the long position of the previous electrolytic aluminum - aluminum alloy spread cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 20300 - 20600 and the resistance level around 21300 - 21800 (view score: - 1) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the US government shutdown and the expected tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. The end of the US government shutdown may lead to an expansion of the fiscal deficit, and the Fed's halt to balance - sheet reduction or even start of balance - sheet expansion will ease the tightness of monetary liquidity. The partial resumption of production at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is unlikely to change the tight supply - demand outlook. As a result, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when the price drops, and pay attention to specific support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [3]. - For the spread and inventory situation, due to factors such as the tight supply of global copper concentrates, the increase in the operating capacity of the copper processing industry, the hawkish shift in the Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations, and the decrease in the maintenance capacity of domestic copper smelters in November, it is recommended that investors temporarily observe the arbitrage opportunities in the basis and spread of Shanghai copper and LME copper [9][10]. - In terms of the mid - upstream supply, multiple factors such as the performance of overseas mines, the change in scrap copper supply, and the adjustment of smelter maintenance plans will affect the production and import of copper concentrates, scrap copper, blister copper, anode plates, and electrolytic copper in November [27][30][33][37]. - Regarding the downstream demand, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products in the downstream, such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper plates and strips, copper tubes, and brass rods, have generally increased recently. The capacity utilization rates of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper plates and strips, and copper foils in November may increase month - on - month, while those of copper tubes and brass rods may decrease month - on - month [42][55][59][69][75][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - **Spread**: Shanghai copper basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the month - spread is negative and within a reasonable range. LME copper (0 - 3) contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range, (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and within a reasonable range. COMEX copper near - far month contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The spreads between LME copper and Shanghai copper, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper, and COMEX copper and LME copper are positive and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to temporarily observe the arbitrage opportunities [9][10][12]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area and social inventory decreased compared with last week, while the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper increased compared with last week. The non - commercial long - to - short position ratio of COMEX copper decreased month - on - month [18][19]. Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: The production and import of domestic copper concentrates in November may increase month - on - month. The copper concentrate import index is negative and higher than last week. The port copper concentrate inventory in China increased compared with last week [27]. - **Scrap Copper**: The domestic scrap copper production and import in November may increase month - on - month, and the supply - demand outlook is tight. The domestic refined - scrap spread is positive, which may boost the economy of scrap copper [30]. - **Blister Copper**: The domestic blister copper production in November may increase month - on - month, and the import may decrease month - on - month. The weekly processing fees of blister copper in northern and southern China were flat and increased respectively compared with last week [33]. - **Anode Plate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plates increased compared with last week, and the processing fee was flat compared with last week [36]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper production and import in November may increase month - on - month [38]. Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - **Copper Rod**: The capacity utilization rates of domestic refined and recycled copper rods increased compared with last week. The raw material and finished - product inventories of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of domestic copper product enterprises in November may increase month - on - month [42][44]. - **Copper Wires and Cables**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory increased while the finished - product inventory decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [57][62]. - **Copper Enameled Wires**: The order volume and capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory days increased while the finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [61][62]. - **Copper Plates and Strips**: The weekly processing fee decreased, the capacity utilization rate and production increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [63][69]. - **Copper Tubes**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may decrease month - on - month [75][79]. - **Brass Rods**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may decrease month - on - month [78][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The previous trading day's urea futures opened higher and fluctuated. Market news indicated that the fourth export quota for urea had been finalized at approximately 600,000 tons. Although this is not a large amount compared to the current urea supply, it helps alleviate domestic supply - demand pressure. The winter storage of urea will gradually start nationwide in the fourth quarter, and the rebound of urea at a low valuation is in line with previous judgments. The 12 - contract option is about to expire, and it is advisable to consider gradually taking profits on the sold put options [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On November 7, UR01 in Shanxi was 1,667 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan or 1.40% from November 6), UR05 was 1,734 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan or 0.41%), UR09 was 1,753 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan or 0.17%). In Shandong, the futures price was 1,600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan or 1.27%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it was 1,600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan or 1.27%); in Henan, 1,600 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan or 1.91%); in Hebei and Northeast, unchanged at 1,590 yuan/ton and 1,610 yuan/ton respectively; in Jiangsu, 1,580 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.64%) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,900 yuan/ton and 2,500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5,083 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.20%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 5,150 yuan/ton [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 134 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan from November 6), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 67 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan) [1] 3. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,679 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,656 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,667 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,668 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 268,588 lots [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Consider gradually taking profits on the sold put options of the 12 - contract [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are already on the low side, so it is not advisable to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive is limited due to two factors: the winter gas restriction in Iran is less than expected, and the port inventory pressure is difficult to reduce; the raw material methanol inventory of MTO enterprises is relatively high in the past five years, and the downstream replenishment motivation is temporarily insufficient. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the gas - restriction expectation of inland gas - to - methanol, and the rising option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Price Information - **Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA05 closed at 2213 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.58%); MA09 closed at 2228 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.09%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.24%), and in Shandong it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.58%), while in Guangdong, Shaanxi, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, the prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Price Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 18 yuan/ton. The price of some coal types also increased, such as Datong Q5500 increasing by 17.5 yuan/ton (2.60%) and Yulin Q6000 increasing by 10 yuan/ton (1.49%) [1]. b. Cost and Profit Information - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of industrial natural gas in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged. The coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 12.6 yuan/ton (-10.04%), and the natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 1100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit Situations**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-21.48%), while the profit of East China MTO increased by 61 yuan/ton (11.00%). The profits of some downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE increased, with acetic acid increasing by 18.57 yuan/ton (4.74%) and MTBE increasing by 23.6 yuan/ton (6.15%) [1]. c. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2122 yuan/ton, closing at 2112 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 915,795 lots and an open interest of 1,390,818 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: In other regions of the Middle East, the reference negotiation for ship cargoes was - 4 - 2%, the buyers' intended bids were - 4 - 5%, and the sellers' intended offers were - 2 - 2.5%. The CFR China price was in the range of 235 - 248 US dollars/ton [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, and the production of lithium carbonate remains high. High prices have intensified the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. The peak of power demand may be approaching. If the weakening of demand is verified, there is still room for the price to decline. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The report suggests investors to take a wait - and - see approach [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all increased compared to the previous period. For example, the near - month contract closing price was 80,460 yuan/ton, up 2,580 yuan from the previous period [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 810,655 hands (+228,622), and the open interest was 490,951 hands (+18,968) [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 27,332 tons, an increase of 912 tons [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 1,700 yuan, up 780 yuan; the spread between continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was 60 yuan, down 60 yuan; the spread between continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan, up 300 yuan; the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 1,900 yuan, down 1,800 yuan [1] 3.2 Lithium - Related Raw Material Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) all increased [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic), and some types of lithium hydroxide changed slightly. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 100 yuan compared to the previous period, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 4,820 yuan, down 100 yuan [1] - **Other Materials**: The prices of some materials such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate changed little, while the price of cobalt metal increased [1] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 123,953 tons, a decrease of 3,405 tons compared to the previous period. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other sectors all decreased [1] 3.4 Industry News - Australian listed company Clean TeQ Water signed a contract worth about 12.5 million US dollars (about 19.2 million Australian dollars) with Rio Tinto's subsidiary Rincon Mining to provide engineering design, procurement, and supply services for the Rancoin project in Argentina. The project will use Clean TeQ's patented CLEAN - IX mobile lithium ion exchange (MBIX) technology, which is expected to be completed in three years [1] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate increased last week, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials all rose [1] - **Demand**: The production of lithium carbonate products, ternary materials, and power batteries increased last week. In November, the production of cobalt - lithium products increased, while the production of lithium carbonate decreased. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]