Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of natural rubber may fluctuate strongly due to slight inventory reduction and rising tire demand. The price of synthetic rubber may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improvement of the macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and synthetic rubber [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 15060, up 165 from the previous day; the trading volume was 567016 hands, an increase of 128226 hands; the open interest was 216311 hands, a decrease of 1817 hands; the registered warrant volume remained unchanged at 186620 [1]. Natural Rubber Basis - The natural rubber basis on July 22, 2025, was - 85, a decrease of 65 from the previous day. The daily price difference between Tianjin - Shanghai, Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF remained unchanged, while the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily price difference increased by 100 [1]. Natural Rubber Monthly Spread - On July 22, 2025, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of natural rubber was - 50, a decrease of 25; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 5, an increase of 5; the spread between the first - continuous and the third - continuous contract was - 15, a decrease of 15 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 12100, up 105 from the previous day; the trading volume was 121387 hands, an increase of 34371 hands; the open interest was 49351 hands, an increase of 34358 hands; the registered warrant volume was 9850, an increase of 150 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Basis - The synthetic rubber basis on July 22, 2025, was - 341.67, a decrease of 88.34 from the previous day. The price difference between North China - East China and South China - East China of butadiene rubber decreased by 25 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Monthly Spread - On July 22, 2025, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of synthetic rubber was 15, a decrease of 10; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract remained unchanged at 25; the spread between the first - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 40, an increase of 20 [1]. Supply Side - In the coming days, the weather in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia is stable with less precipitation, while there is precipitation in domestic producing areas. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber increased by 0.47% to 63.22%, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 1.6% to 78.79%. The daily after - tax gross profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization process increased by 4.25 yuan/ton, and that of SBS solution coagulation process increased by 70.8 yuan/ton. The after - tax gross profit of butadiene rubber solution polymerization process remained unchanged [1]. Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.67 thousand tons to 212.92 thousand tons; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.12 million tons to 11.37 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased by 123 tons to 12640 tons [1]. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period. As of July 22, 2025, the glue purchase price in Thailand increased by 0.3 baht/kg, and that in Hainan increased by 100 yuan/ton. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, the oil price volatility returns to shock, the price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased, and the weekly inventory of butadiene ports decreased by 3.6 thousand tons to 20 thousand tons [1]. Demand Side - As of July 17, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 0.54% to 65.08%, and that of semi - steel tires in China increased by 3.07% to 75.62%. In June 2025, the retail volume of the national automobile market, passenger car sales, and truck sales all increased compared with the previous month, and the tire matching demand increased [1].

Report Title - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Daily Review 20250723: Natural Rubber Fluctuates Strongly, Synthetic Rubber Fluctuates Strongly [2] Report Author - Wang Wenhu (F03087656, Z0019472), Contact Number: 010 - 82293558 [3] Report Core View - Natural rubber may see prices fluctuate strongly due to slight inventory reduction and rising tire demand, while synthetic rubber may also fluctuate strongly supported by improved macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber at 13800 - 14000 and 15400 - 15600 respectively, and those of synthetic rubber at 11100 - 11400 and 12400 - 12600 respectively [1] Market Data Summary Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 15060, up 165 from the previous day; the trading volume was 567016 lots, an increase of 128226 lots; the open interest was 216311 lots, a decrease of 1817 lots; the registered warrant volume remained unchanged at 186620; the natural rubber basis was - 85, down 65 from the previous day [1] Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 12100, up 105 from the previous day; the trading volume was 121387 lots, an increase of 34371 lots; the open interest was 49351 lots, an increase of 34358 lots; the registered warrant volume was 9850, up 150 from the previous day; the synthetic rubber basis was - 341.67, down 88.34 from the previous day [1] Supply - side Situation - In the future, weather in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia will be stable with less precipitation, while there will be rainfall in domestic producing areas including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Yunnan. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 63.22%, up 0.47% from the previous week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, up 1.6% from the previous week [1] Inventory Situation - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 212.92 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.67 thousand tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 11.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons; the bonded area inventory was 0.197 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12640 tons, a decrease of 123 tons from the previous week [1] Cost - side Situation - Global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, with full tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas. As of July 22, 2025, the glue purchase price in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand was 54.8 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht/kg from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber glue in the Hainan market was 15250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. For synthetic rubber, short - term contradictions in crude oil are not prominent, and oil price volatility has returned to a range - bound pattern. The upstream raw material butadiene price has increased [1] Demand - side Situation - As of July 17, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.08%, up 0.54% from the previous week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 75.62%, up 3.07% from the previous week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217700 vehicles from the previous month; the sales of passenger cars were 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184300 vehicles; the sales of trucks in China were 316000 vehicles, an increase of 24500 vehicles from the previous month [1]

有色金属周报(精炼锡) 江西及国内精炼锡产能开工率连续回升， 国内反内卷政策引导乐观情绪或有缓和 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年07月23日 宏源期货 研究所 沪锡基差为负且处于相对低位，月差为正且基本处于合理区间，而这源于缅甸佤邦和刚果金锡矿逐步复产预期， 国内精炼锡周度运行产能和社会库存量趋增，国内传统消费淡季抑制下游需求预期，建议投资者暂时观望套利机会。 资料来源：WIND，SMM，宏源期货研究所 王文虎 （F03087656，Z0019472） 精炼锡 供给端：缅甸佤邦7月11日开会确定第一批40-50个硐口缴费复采（初期增量不超1万金属吨且需2-3个 月传导期，共计108个硐口），或使国内锡矿7月生产量（进口量）环比减少（增加），叠加国内锡精矿加 工费震荡趋降，或预示国内锡矿供给预期偏紧；中国再生锡7月生产量环比增加；江西及中国（云南）精炼 锡产能开工率较上周升高（持平）；中国精炼锡7月生产（库存）量环比增加（减少）；印尼财政部对采矿 许可证审批受腐败调查影响且或压缩中长期出口配额，使7月出口量或环比减少。 需求端：中国锡焊料7月产能开工率（库存量）环比下降（增加），中国焊带7月进 ...

有色金属周报(电解铜) 美日达成贸易协议关注中美下周谈判， 关注国内"反内卷"政策后续执行情况 2025年7月23日 宏源期货研究所 王文虎 （F03087656，Z0019472） 有色金属周报(电解铜) 国内社会库存初现下降COMEX库存仍在累积， 传统消费淡季来临下游需求疲软 电解铜 宏观：美国参议院通过稳定币相关法案且将准许养老基金等投资黄金、数字货币等资产；进口关税推升商品价格致美国6 月消费端通胀CPI年率有所升高，但因美国6月生产端通胀PPI年率为2.3%低于预期和前值，叠加鲍威尔提前离职预期增大美联 储降息预期，使美联储9/12月降息概率有所升高。 上游：山西运城垣曲县五龙实业旗下洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡，五矿资源MMG旗下Las Bambas和Hudbay 旗下Constancia因非正规矿工暂停封路抗议至7月18日，加拿大Manitoba 北部发生野火使Hudbay Minerals 已经暂停Snow Lake运营和勘探，紫金矿业旗下卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿西侧已于6月初复产但东侧排水或持续至9月（25年计划矿产铜由52-58降 至37-42万吨），铜陵有色旗下位于厄瓜多尔的米拉多铜 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of Fed rate cuts, potential disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It advises investors to hold existing long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740 yuan, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 73,257 lots, down 6,755 lots. The open interest was 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,755 yuan, up 200 yuan, and the spot - futures spread was 15 yuan, up 160 yuan [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: In different regions, the spot premiums of electrolytic copper showed various changes. For example, the Guangzhou spot premium was - 10 yuan, down 25 yuan; the North China spot premium was - 120 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the East China spot premium was 90 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 22, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,888 dollars, up 31 dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (presumably data error in the text), and the previous day's value was 124,850 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22, 2025, was 5.768 dollars, up 0.19 dollars. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Production Forecast**: Nornickel expects this year's copper production to be 343,000 tons, lower than the previous estimate. Anglo Asian Mining PLC's Denirli copper mine in the Fuzuli - Karabakh Economic Region has started production, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - **Export Outlook**: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of some refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. SMM expects the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July [2]. 3.3 Macro - economic Situation The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. The import tariff has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate in US consumer prices in June. However, the US RPP annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The expectation of Powell's early departure and Fed rate cuts has increased, raising the probability of rate cuts in September or December [3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - **Upstream**: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The export (import, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at ports in the world (China) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in July may change (decrease, increase). Some smelters have production issues, while others are starting new projects or expanding production, which may lead to an increase in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper and electrolytic copper in July. The import window for electrolytic copper is closed, and the inventory in China's bonded area remains flat, while the social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has increased [5]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has increased compared to last week. The overall demand is still weak, but the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries has increased. However, due to factors such as the Sino - US tariff issue and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline (decrease, decrease, decrease, increase). The domestic electrolytic copper holders are actively supporting prices, and the supply of deliverable trading brands is tight, while the price of non - standard trading brands is low [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, fluctuations in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740, up 40 from the previous day; the trading volume was 73,257 hands, down 6,755; the open interest was 166,726 hands, up 29,109; the inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 22 was 9,888, up 31 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 124,850 tons, a decrease of 124,850 compared to the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22 was 5.768, up 0.19 from July 18. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 [2]. Information - **Production and Export**: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of many refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the overall demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. In July, with the decline in copper prices, the foreign trade market improved, and SMM expected the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July. The production of Anglo Asian Mining's Denirli copper mine is expected to increase by the end of this year, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - **Macro - economy**: The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill, allowing pension funds and other assets to invest in gold, digital currencies, etc. The import tariff increased the commodity price, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate of US consumer goods in June. The RPP annual rate of US production adjustment in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, increasing the expectation of Powell's early departure and the Fed's interest - rate cut, which raised the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September or December [3]. Investment Strategy - **Upstream**: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The port copper concentrate throughput (inbound, outbound, and inventory) in the world (China) has decreased compared to last week. Although there are some factors restricting the supply of scrap copper, the opening of the refined copper import window and the transit supply from countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand may lead to an increase in the domestic scrap copper production (import) in July. Some smelters have production problems, while some new projects are under construction or expected to be put into operation [5]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared to last week. Affected by the traditional off - season of consumption and the Sino - US tariff issue, the capacity utilization rate and production volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, but the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The passage of the U.S. stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies, the increased expectation of Powell's early departure and subsequent Fed rate - cuts, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks and geopolitical risks, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions on price pull - backs. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different gold and silver markets [1]. 3. Summary by Content a. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On 2025 - 07 - 22, the closing price was 780.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan from the previous day and 7.80 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 49,546.00, an increase of 9,284.00 from the previous day and 22,476.00 from last week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 9368.00 yuan/kg, up 142.00 yuan from the previous day and 259.00 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 537,430.00, an increase of 236,642.00 from the previous day and 53,632.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 3444.00, up 33.70 from the previous day and 91.90 from last week. Trading volume was 217,981.00, an increase of 32,635.00 from the previous day and 37,040.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 39.66, up 0.42 from the previous day and 1.25 from last week. Trading volume was 57,469.00, an increase of 7,611.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 18,727.00 from last week [1]. b. Important Information - **U.S. News**: Trump announced a trade deal with Japan where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will get 90% of the profits. There are also developments regarding Powell's "resignation" and calls for Fed rate - cuts. The U.S. House passed a stablecoin - related bill and inflation data showed mixed trends [1]. - **European News**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, and there are expectations of further rate - cuts by the end of 2025. The eurozone and German (French) manufacturing PMI and CPI data have influenced market expectations [1]. - **UK News**: The Bank of England cut the key rate in May and continued bond - selling. With CPI data and GDP trends, there is an increased expectation of rate - cuts in August and by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan News**: The Bank of Japan raised rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 based on CPI data [1]. c. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Precious Metal Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) showed certain changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 compared to previous days and weeks [1]. - **Other Commodities**: Prices of INE crude, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore also had their respective changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. d. Interest Rates and Stock Indices - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai inter - bank lending rates (SHIBOR), U.S. 10 - year Treasury yields, and inflation - adjusted yields had changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Japanese Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index showed different trends on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Prices - The price of crude oil on July 22, 2025, was $566.38 per ton, up 1.13% from the previous value [1] - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene index was $821.00 per ton on July 22, 2025, with no change from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China was 640.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price of the main contract of methanol futures on July 22, 2025, was 443.00 yuan per ton, up 0.9% from the previous settlement price [1] - The price of the near - month contract of methanol futures on July 22, 2025, was 422.60 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - The intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China was 447.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, with no change [1] Price Indexes - The price index of polyester was 8500.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, with no change [1] - The price index of polyester chips was 6950.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, with no change [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber was 6800.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.15% compared to a certain reference [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips was 5990.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.1% compared to a certain reference [1] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol was 58.76% on July 22, 2025, with no change [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 30.30% on July 22, 2025 [1] - The load rate of the PTA industrial chain factory was 80.18% on a certain date, and that of the Jiangsu - Zhejiang PTA weaving machine industry was 58.02% on July 22, 2025 [1] Other Information - The price of foreign - market oil - based ethylene glycol was $92.03 per ton on a certain date [1] - The after - tax gross profit of a certain production method was 1631.02 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025 [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is expected to fluctuate with costs. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to oscillate. (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Directory Price Information - **Upstream Products**: On July 22, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.31 per barrel, down 2.81% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settled at $68.59 per barrel, down 0.90%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $566.38 per ton, down 1.13%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $715.00 per ton, down 0.35% [1]. - **PTA Products**: CZCE TA main - contract closed at 4,794 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.29%; the settlement price was 4,772 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4,775 yuan per ton, down 0.52%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,772 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, and the outer - market index was $630 per ton, up 0.48% [1]. - **PX Products**: CZCE PX main - contract closed at 6,886 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.35%; the settlement price was 6,852 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene remained unchanged at 6,719 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $276.62 per ton, up 2.66%, and the PX - MX spread was $128.00 per ton, up 2.54% [1]. - **PR Products**: CZCE PR main - contract closed at 5,996 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.20%; the settlement price was 5,980 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,990 yuan per ton, down 0.17%, and in the South China market, it remained unchanged at 6,030 yuan per ton [1]. - **Downstream Products**: On July 22, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,580 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5,990 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. Other downstream product price indices remained unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On July 22, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.74%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 87.01%, up 0.21%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged; and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On July 22, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 105%, up 55 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 48%, up 8 percentage points; and the sales rate of polyester chips was 82%, up 11 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - Macroeconomic sentiment has pressured oil prices downward. Fitch has downgraded the outlook for some US industries in 2025. PTA will have new device put into production in the third quarter, creating a mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support. The future profitability of PX depends on unexpected factors. The unexpected situation of the reforming device has changed the current dull fundamentals, but during the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates after the significant drop in PTA processing fees [2]. Summary - PTA futures rose during the day, while the average spot price fell. The anti - involution expectation is favorable for the commodity market, but the crude oil market was weak during the session. PTA supply is sufficient, and the spot basis has weakened. PTA processing fees are in a low - level range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand during the off - season. In July, polyester factories actually carried out maintenance, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared to June. The macro - impact on the polyester industry chain has weakened, and it has returned to fundamental drivers. The weakening supply - demand expectation has led to a full - line decline in prices. Entering the off - season of textile and clothing, if polyester deepens production cuts in the future, the industry chain contradictions will intensify, making it more difficult for prices to rise. In terms of industry chain profits, the strong driving force of the cost side has caused the profit distribution pattern of the industry chain to tilt towards raw materials again [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA fluctuated higher, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,794 yuan per ton (up 0.38%) and an intraday trading volume of 1.08 million lots; PX prices increased, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,886 yuan per ton (up 0.53%) and an intraday trading volume of 204,600 lots; PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,996 yuan per ton (up 0.33%) and an intraday trading volume of 52,600 lots. In the overnight crude oil market, concerns about potential trade frictions between major oil - consuming countries the US and the EU and the upcoming OPEC production meeting in September led to a third - consecutive - day decline in European and American crude oil futures. The current demand in the polyester industry chain is not optimistic, and it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all oscillate [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the urea price rose on the previous trading day, the supply pressure remains high with daily production close to 200,000 tons and enterprise inventory around 750,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July provides price support, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not supplement, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, UR01 closed at 1,809 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan or 1.63% from July 21), UR05 at 1,815 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan or 1.57%), UR09 at 1,817 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan or 0.28%), and Shandong spot at 1,840 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.55%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained)**: On July 22, prices in Shanxi were 1,720 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 1,850 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.54%), in Hebei 1,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Northeast 1,760 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu 1,840 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: On July 22, the anthracite coal price in Henan was 1,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanxi 820 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Downstream Prices**: On July 22, the compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 2,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). The melamine price in Shandong was 5,007 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan or 0.34%), and in Jiangsu 5,200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] 2. Basis and Spread - On July 22, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was 25 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan from July 21), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 6 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan) [1] 3. Trading Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1,820 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,828 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,782 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,817 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,806 yuan/ton, and the position was 191,764 lots [1]