Workflow
Hong Yuan Qi Huo
icon
Search documents
有色金属周报:镍与不锈钢弱势延续-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 09:32
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait-and-see stance, with an expected price range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [4][94] - Stainless steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton [5][120] 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supply side shows stable nickel ore prices, decreased arrivals last week, and port inventory reduction. Domestic iron mills' losses have widened, leading to reduced production schedules, while Indonesian iron mills' production schedules have increased, and nickel iron inventory has accumulated. Domestic refined nickel production schedules have decreased, and export profits have expanded. On the demand side, ternary material production schedules have increased, while precursor production schedules have decreased. Stainless steel mills' production schedules have decreased, mainly due to reduced production of the 200 series. Alloy electroplating demand is stable. In terms of inventory, pure nickel social inventory increased last week, while bonded area inventory decreased. Overall, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure remains high, and the valuation of pure nickel is low. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][94] - Stainless steel: From a fundamental perspective, stainless steel mills' production schedules have decreased, mainly due to reduced production of the 200 series, while the production schedule of the 300 series is basically flat, and the terminal demand for stainless steel is weak. The cost-side support continues to weaken, with nickel pig iron and high-carbon ferrochrome prices falling. In terms of inventory, the total inventory has increased, while the 300 series inventory has decreased. Overall, the demand is weak, the loose fundamental pattern is difficult to change, and the cost continues to weaken. Therefore, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [5][120] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 0.99%. The trading volume of SHFE nickel decreased to 546,500 lots (-46,200), and the open interest increased to 121,900 lots (+9,400). LME nickel also declined by 1.35% weekly, and its trading volume increased to 37,500 lots (+7,200) [11] - The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained unchanged, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China also remained stable [20] - In September, the export volume of Philippine nickel ore decreased, and China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [25] - Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased by 415,000 tons month-on-month, and the port inventory of nickel ore decreased by 220,000 wet tons [27] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron increased by 150 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium of nickel pig iron to scrap stainless steel widened [32] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports reached 1.085 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 24.2% and a year-on-year increase of 47.2%. Imports are expected to decline in October [36] - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [44] - Nickel pig iron inventory has accumulated [46] 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel decreased [50] - The export profit of electrolytic nickel has expanded [54] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased, while exports decreased [58] 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of the 300 series was basically flat [63] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.7% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year. Imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [67] 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price decline of pure nickel was greater than that of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [72] - In November, the production schedule of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and increased by 20.4% year-on-year, while the production schedule of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month-on-month and 39.8% year-on-year [76] - In November, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month-on-month and 23.4% year-on-year [78] - In September, the production of new energy vehicles reached 1.617 million units, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% and a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. The sales volume reached 1.604 million units, a month-on-month increase of 15.0% and a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [84] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory increased [85] - Last week, the bonded area pure nickel inventory decreased by 200 tons, while the six-region social total inventory increased by 1,029 tons [90] 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel by purchasing nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP externally decreased. The cost advantage of producing electrowinning nickel through MHP integration is significantly higher than that through nickel matte integration [93] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of high-nickel pig iron and high-carbon ferrochrome decreased, and the cost-side support weakened [101] - The profit of the 200 series of stainless steel decreased, the loss of the 300 series widened, and the loss of the 400 series decreased [105] 2.3 Fundamental Aspects - In November, stainless steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of the 300 series was basically flat [109] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.7% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year. Imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [112] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory has increased. The inventory of the 200 series has increased, the 300 series has decreased, and the 400 series has increased [118] 2.5 Market Outlook - Nickel: Hold a wait-and-see stance, with an expected price range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure remains high, and the valuation of pure nickel is low. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [94] - Stainless steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, the loose fundamental pattern is difficult to change, and the cost continues to weaken. Therefore, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [120]
有色金属周报:高位回落风险较大-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 09:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of lead products such as SMM1 lead ingots, Shanghai lead main - contract, and London lead have shown an upward trend. The lead market has both supply and demand increasing, but high lead prices suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. This week is the week before the delivery of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract, and some hidden inventories will become visible. There is a risk of the lead price rising and then falling. Attention should be continuously paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on refinery operations in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.15% to 17,250 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main - contract closing price increased by 0.17% to 17,420 yuan/ton, and London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose by 0.99% to 2,045 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text, only historical basis data charts are presented [11]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Raw Material - Lead Concentrate**: The tight supply pattern of lead concentrate has not been alleviated, with domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees (TC) declining. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee dropped to 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee dropped to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The refinery profit is acceptable, with a profit of 162.5 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) as of October 31 [22][27]. - **Raw Material - Scrap Batteries**: As of November 7, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. With the continuous increase in secondary lead production, it is expected that the price of scrap batteries will rise in the future [42]. - **Primary Lead**: The primary lead operating rate increased slightly to 67.57%. The weekly production of some major smelting enterprises remained stable, while some enterprises had production changes due to maintenance or production resumption. The total weekly production is expected to increase from 49,800 tons to 50,450 tons [28][33]. - **Secondary Lead**: The secondary lead operating rate increased by 7.3 percentage points to 50.7%. The weekly production reached 5.97 tons last week. The supply of scrap batteries is relatively stable, and most refineries have sufficient raw materials, with the operating rate returning to a high level in the past six months [54]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Battery Enterprises**: The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 69.22%. Some previously maintained enterprises resumed production last week, and the lead ingot trading improved. However, due to the high lead price increasing battery costs and the general terminal consumption, dealers' inventory building is limited, and battery enterprises mainly produce according to sales [62]. 3.4 Import and Export Analysis - As of October 31, the refined lead export loss was about 3,000 yuan/ton. As of November 10, the import profit was - 418.79 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [71]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Lead Ingot Inventory**: As of November 10, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 3.27 tons, and the inventory of primary lead's main delivery brand factories was 8,900 tons, showing an increase. High lead prices inhibited downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and inventory accumulated due to delivery and position transfer [81]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of November 7, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.86 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 20.22 tons, showing a decrease [84]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the data of primary lead production, secondary lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory from July 2024 to August 2025 [85].
有色金属周报:工业硅、多晶硅上方承压-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 09:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon supply is tightening, with demand mainly for rigid procurement. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and weak demand and high inventory are the main factors restricting price increases. Short - term silicon prices are expected to range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The "purchase and storage platform" for polysilicon has not been implemented, and the market has become desensitized. With weak demand and high inventory risks, polysilicon spot prices have declined, and the high premium in the futures market lacks support. Short - term prices are expected to consolidate, and previous long positions should protect profits [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - Petroleum coke prices have slightly increased, while silica, electrode prices have remained stable. With the southwest region entering the dry - season, power costs have significantly increased [3]. - In September, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 was - 1,029 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 252 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 665 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 267 yuan/ton [36]. 3.1.2 Supply - In Sichuan, as it enters the normal - water period and electricity prices rise, most manufacturers have stopped production. In Yunnan, due to the dry - season and increased costs, most businesses have stopped production. In the north, the start - up rate is slowly increasing, but a factory in Xinjiang reduced production last week. The overall supply is expected to fall below 400,000 tons in November, a decrease of about 12% [3]. - On November 7, the number of open furnaces decreased by 37 week - on - week, mainly in Sichuan and Yunnan, and slightly in Xinjiang [37]. 3.1.3 Demand - Some polysilicon manufacturers are under maintenance, and production is expected to decline. Organic silicon enterprises that previously cut production have gradually resumed, increasing the demand for industrial silicon, but purchases are mainly for rigid replenishment. The silicon - aluminum alloy industry has no plans to increase or decrease production, and the start - up rate is relatively stable [3]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Except for some southwest silicon enterprises that have reduced production, most manufacturers are in normal production. Due to low prices, silicon enterprises are reluctant to sell, and inventory continues to accumulate [3]. 3.1.5 Market Outlook - The oversupply situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged. Weak demand and high inventory restrict price increases. Short - term silicon prices are expected to range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, polysilicon production was 27,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. As of November 6, the inventory was 259,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons. In October, production was 134,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from September. In November, production is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons [68]. 3.2.2 Demand - The upstream demand from the component side is weak, and there is no obvious inventory - building action. The support from the battery - chip side is insufficient, and the silicon - wafer production plan for November has declined [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 6, the total polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory was 17.52GW. As of November 7, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 9,850 lots [3]. 3.2.4 Market Outlook - The "purchase and storage platform" has not been implemented, and the market has become desensitized. With weak demand and high inventory risks, polysilicon spot prices have declined, and the high premium in the futures market lacks support. Short - term prices are expected to consolidate [3]. 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Supply - In October, the DMC start - up rate was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 percentage points, and the output was 209,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 600 tons. Recently, the previously maintained devices in Yunnan and Jiangxi have gradually resumed production, and the supply shows an increasing trend [97]. 3.3.2 Price - As of November 7, the average DMC price was 11,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.36%; the average 107 - rubber price was 11,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; the average silicone oil price was 13,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. In the long - term, prices may continue to weaken due to oversupply [104]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Start - up Rate - In the week of November 6, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.1%, remaining unchanged [112]. 3.4.2 Price - As of November 7, the average ADC12 price was 21,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.70%; the average A356 price was 22,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.38% [115]. 3.5 Inventory - As of November 6, the industrial silicon social inventory (social + delivery warehouse) was 552,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons; the total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 172,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,900 tons. As of November 7, the exchange - registered warehouse receipts were 46,180 lots, equivalent to 230,900 tons of spot [126].
贵金属日评:美国财政部账户现金流出预期支撑贵金属价格-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 04:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The expected cash outflow from the US Treasury General Account, the increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, the provision of liquidity by the Fed through the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRP), geopolitical risks, and the continuous gold - buying by global central banks may support precious metal prices [1] Summary by Relevant Contents Precious Metal Market Data - **Futures and Spot Data**: For gold, on 2025 - 11 - 11, the Shanghai gold futures closing price was 933.02 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 51,204. The spot Shanghai gold T + D closing price was 917.64 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 37,088. For silver, the Shanghai silver futures closing price was 11,719 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 1,015,910. The spot Shanghai silver T + D closing price was 11,480 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 619,304. In the international market, the COMEX gold futures closing price was 4,013.40 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 242,570. The London gold spot price was 4,090.25 dollars/ounce. The COMEX silver futures closing price was 48.23 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 16,720. The London silver spot price was 50.04 dollars/ounce [1] - **Inventory and Position Data**: Gold inventory in Shanghai was 89,616 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai gold T + D was 254,730. The inventory of COMEX gold was 37,729,455.44 (in troy ounces), and the position was 300,451. Silver inventory in Shanghai was 609,978 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai silver T + D was 4,236,766. The inventory of COMEX silver was 479,104,695.08 (in troy ounces), and the position was 96,354 [1] - **Price Difference and Basis Data**: The spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was 1.10, and the basis (spot - futures) was 0.10. For silver, the spread between near - month and far - month futures was 31.00, and the basis was 11.00. In the international market, the spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was - 15.20, and the basis was - 33.15. The spread between near - month and far - month silver futures was - 0.73, and the basis was 0.71 [1] Important Information - The US government shutdown may continue for several more days. After the Senate passed a procedural vote on the temporary appropriation bill, the House's voting time is undetermined. Trump - appointed Fed governor Milan believes that the government shutdown will not affect his view of the US economy and advocates a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 830 - 860, and the resistance level is around 950 - 1,000. For London silver, the support level is around 39 - 42, and the resistance level is around 50 - 55. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9,400 - 10,000, and the resistance level is around 11,600 - 12,400 [1]
沪铜日评:美国政府结束停摆预期或支撑铜价-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 03:10
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Multiple copper mines have production disruptions, which may make the Shanghai copper price cautiously bullish. The supply - side has production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper has increased [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shanghai Copper Futures - On November 10, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 86,480, with a volume of 98,089 lots, a position of 204,127 lots, and an inventory of 43,789 tons. The Shanghai copper basis was 55, and the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,535. Compared with November 7, the closing price increased by 540, the volume increased by 6,813 lots, the position decreased by 3,009 lots, and the inventory increased by 395 tons [3] 2. London Copper - On November 10, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,874.5. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0. Compared with November 7, the closing price increased by 179.5, the 0 - 3 - month contract spread increased by 18.22, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreased by 77.98 [3] 3. COMEX Copper - On November 10, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.0995, and the total inventory was 372,304. Compared with November 6, the closing price increased by 0.12, and the inventory increased by 5,885 [3] 4. Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly - position and try to go long on the main contract at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 87,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 10,800 - 11,200. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 [3]
碳酸锂日评:宽幅震荡-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 03:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand are both strong, with repeated news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi. The production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and the high price intensifies the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players, resulting in sluggish trading in the spot market. However, there is an expectation of weakening in power demand, and the game between bulls and bears intensifies. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate widely. Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures increased in price with an increase in positions. The trading volume was 986,569 lots (+175,914), and the position volume was 534,483 lots (+43,532). The trading in the spot market was sluggish, and the basis discount was large [1]. - The prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts and the overall price all increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the near - month contract's closing price increased from 80,460 yuan/ton on November 7 to 84,500 yuan/ton on November 10 [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related products generally showed an upward trend. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 39 US dollars/ton to 966 US dollars/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased by 45 yuan/ton to 1,365 yuan/ton [1]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) increased by 350 yuan/ton to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, coarse - grained) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 75,630 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply side**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials all increased. In November, the planned production of lithium carbonate increased, and the scheduled production decreased [1]. - **Demand side**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production of ternary materials increased. In November, the planned production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the planned production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 27,491 tons (+159 tons), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties all decreased. The total inventory decreased by 3,405 tons to 123,953 tons last week [1]. 3.5 Industry News - In October, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.5% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale volume was 12.058 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.9% [1]. - The Secretariat of Mining and Energy of Salta Province, Argentina, has issued an Environmental Impact Assessment Report for the first phase of the PPGS Jujuy Lake project, marking a key progress for the project. The project plans to submit an application for the Large - scale Investment Promotion System (RIGI) to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026 and has about 15,070 tons of LCE indicated + controlled resources [1].
尿素早评:出口预期再起-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea has strengthened recently because market news indicates that the fourth export quota of urea has been finalized, about 600,000 tons, which helps relieve domestic supply - demand pressure. Also, the fourth - quarter urea winter storage will gradually start nationwide, and the rebound of urea at a low valuation is in line with previous judgments. The 12 - contract put - selling options recommended in the 10.21 report can be considered for gradual profit - taking as the 12 - contract options are about to expire [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1,660 yuan/ton on November 10, down 7 yuan or 0.42% from November 7. UR05 closed at 1,732 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12%. UR09 closed at 1,755 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.11% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices - Spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu increased, with Hebei having the largest increase of 40 yuan or 2.52% to 1,630 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 112 yuan/ton on November 10, up 22 yuan from November 7. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 72 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 50 yuan or 1.72% to 2,950 yuan/ton. The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan or 0.20% to 5,093 yuan/ton. Other downstream prices remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,670 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,670 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,652 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,660 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,661 yuan/ton, and the position was 257,574 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Consider gradually taking profit on the 12 - contract put - selling options [1].
宏源期货日刊-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view can be extracted from the given data 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Commodity Prices - The price of crude oil on November 11, 2025, was $581.75 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on November 10, 2025, was $41.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China on November 11, 2025, was 6000 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of methanol on November 10, 2025, was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity on November 10, 2025, was 3936 yuan per ton, a 0.20% change from the previous value [1] - The settlement price of the near - month contract on November 10, 2025, was 3848 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of ethylene glycol in East China on November 10, 2025, was 4020 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price difference between near and far - month contracts on November 10, 2025, was 88 yuan per ton, an 8 - yuan change from the previous value [1] - The basis on November 10, 2025, was 67 yuan per ton, a 1 - yuan change from the previous value [1] Industry Operating Conditions - The operating rate of ethylene glycol from oil on November 10, 2025, was 63.4% [1] - The operating rate of ethylene glycol from coal on November 10, 2025, was 66.51% [1] - The operating rate of a certain PTA factory on November 10, 2025, was 89.0% [1] - The operating rate of the textile industry in Zhejiang and Jiangsu on November 10, 2025, was 72.28% [1] Profit Conditions - The after - tax gross profit of a certain oil - based ethylene glycol production on November 10, 2025, was 1423.94 yuan per ton, a 40.3 - yuan change from the previous value [1] - The after - tax gross profit of a coal - based synthetic gas method production on November 10, 2025, was 19.6 yuan per ton, a 35.4 - yuan change from the previous value [1] Price Indexes - The price index of polyester on November 10, 2025, was 8525 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber on November 10, 2025, was 6850 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips on November 10, 2025, was 5750 yuan per ton, a 0.1% change from the previous value [1] Other Information - A coal - based ethylene glycol production unit in Inner Mongolia is expected to start up this month after inspection and maintenance [1]
铅锌日评:沪铅高位整理,沪锌或有回调-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 01:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and the import window is open, improving the supply shortage. Thus, there is significant upward pressure on lead prices. It is recommended to continue holding previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, the back structure of LME zinc has weakened, reducing overseas structural risks. Zinc prices lack continuous upward momentum. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities brought by the rebound of the SHFE - LME ratio. In the medium - term, the mine end will tighten in the fourth quarter, and TC is likely to fall, which may affect the supply side and provide some support for zinc prices. It is advisable to wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.29% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract rose by 0.49% [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The import of lead concentrates has no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, with small fluctuations in primary lead production. The operation rate of recycled lead refineries has recovered to over 50%, increasing supply. The terminal market has improved, and the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is acceptable, increasing demand. However, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Continue to hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.31% compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc main contract fell by 0.22%. The premium of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased to 2,650 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index decreased to 98.37 US dollars/dry ton. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an expected monthly output of about 600,000 tons. The demand side has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1].
工业硅、多晶硅日评:上方承压-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 01:13
Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The silicon market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. The market for polycrystalline silicon has limited willingness for downstream restocking, and there is significant pressure for further price increases in the spot market, potentially leading to a decline [1]. Group 3: Summary of Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon increased by 0.54% to 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon increased by 0.52% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 0.76% to 9,290 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - In October, the southwest production area entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production at the end of October, and the operating rate of silicon enterprises decreased significantly. In the north, the number of furnaces in operation increased steadily. After offsetting, the industrial silicon production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, silicone enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced production or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low levels was limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The silicon market has a situation of weak supply and demand, and the industrial silicon remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. Pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is range operation [1]. Group 4: Summary of Polysilicon Price Changes - The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feed material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Silicon material enterprises continued to reduce production, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the production in October is expected to increase slightly, and the production in November may decline. The polysilicon market transactions were relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is significant pressure for further price increases in the spot market, potentially leading to a decline. For previous long positions, pay attention to profit protection. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, you can try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Group 5: Other Information - According to SMM statistics, the upstream inventory of the photovoltaic cell market is about 6GW, a week - on - week decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 193.4%. Recently, JA Solar signed a cooperation agreement with South Korea's Dabo Group to jointly build a 21MW photovoltaic power station in South Korea's Gangwon - do. The project is expected to be connected to the grid in August 2026 [1].