分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 [原ta油ble季_r度ep报ort告date] 2025 年 9 月 宏观预期改善或提供反弹动力 风险提示：地缘局势变动，关税政策调整，OPEC+政策调整。 | 一、 | 行情回顾 4 | | --- | --- | | 1、 | 行情回顾：先跌后涨再横盘 4 | | 2、 | 观点回顾 5 | | 二、 | 宏观分析：美国宏观经济存在改善预期 6 | | 1、 | 美联储鸽派托底经济预期 6 | | 2、 | 中长期预期相对较好 8 | | 3、 | 管理基金净多持仓偏低 8 | | | 三、基本面分析：过剩预期或有调整 10 | | 1、 | 供给端：OPEC+实际增产低于计划，美页岩油增产意愿有限 10 | | 2、 | 需求端：需求预期并不差 11 | | 3、 | 库存：美国油品库存压力不大，中国补储缓解过剩压力 14 | | 4、 | 风险：可能的风险在地缘局势变动 15 | | | 四、总结与展望 17 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Overseas copper mine production disruptions lead to a tight supply expectation, but the Fed's hawkish stance on future interest rate cuts may keep copper prices oscillating [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - On September 25, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 82,710, with a trading volume of 334,893 lots, a position of 238,523 lots, and an inventory of 27,662 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 82,505, with a change of -290 compared to the previous day [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 25, 2025, was 10,275.5, and the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was -31.55 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on September 25, 2025, was 4.7885, and the total inventory was 321,056 [2] Important Information - At the Antaike Copper Industry Week conference held in Xiongan, Beijing on September 25, 2025, Chen Quanxun, the former president of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association, put forward five suggestions for the copper industry, emphasizing that the anti - involution of the copper industry should refer to the experience of the aluminum industry and control smelting capacity [2] Long - Short Logic - Supply side: The large - scale wet ore spill at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the 2026 copper and gold production by about 35% compared to pre - accident estimates. Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disruptions, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Tight scrap copper supply - demand expectations lead to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October increases month - on - month [2] - Demand side: High copper prices lead downstream to mainly make rigid purchases [2] - Inventory side: China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week, and COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [2] Trading Strategy - Hold yesterday's long positions cautiously, or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 78,000 - 81,000 and the resistance level around 83,000 - 86,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 10,800 for London copper, and the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

| 贵金属日评20250926:美联储未来降息预期转鹰施压贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-24 | 2025-09-19 | 收盘价 | 854. 72 | -5. 28 | 830. 56 | 24. 16 | 860. 00 | | | | | 成交量 | 270576.00 | 285621.00 | 210003.00 | 60. 573. 00 | -15, 045. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 240177.00 | 26, 452. 00 | 266629.00 | 274765.00 | -8.136.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 8, 205.00 | 65634.00 | 60543.00 | 57429.00 | 5,091.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner in the short - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 25, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $64.98 per barrel, down 0.02% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.42 per barrel, up 0.16%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $676.00 per ton, up 0.52%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, up 0.57% [1] - **PTA**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 1.12%; the settlement price was 4,658 yuan per ton, up 1.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18%; the settlement price was 4,630 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,597 yuan per ton, up 0.81%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,585 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the external price index was $609.00 per ton, up 1.50% [1] - **PX**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 1.09%; the settlement price was 6,640 yuan per ton, up 1.10%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,678 yuan per ton, up 0.69%; the settlement price was 6,470 yuan per ton, down 2.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6,382 yuan per ton. The spot price (CFR China Taiwan) was $813.00 per ton, up 1.12%; the spot price (FOB South Korea) was $796.00 per ton, up 1.02%. The PXN spread was $208.50 per ton, up 1.05%; the PX - MX spread was $141.00 per ton, up 0.84% [1] - **PR**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,840 yuan per ton, up 0.97%; the settlement price was 5,816 yuan per ton, up 1.04%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 1.31%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, up 1.00%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; in the South China market, it was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - **Downstream**: On September 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,475 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 1.44%; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,425 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the price index of polyester chips was 5,755 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [2] Device Information - A 7 - million - ton PX plant in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: Geopolitical and sanctions around Russia are the main factors driving international crude oil prices. The expected pressure of supply glut has not been reflected in the market, and oil prices were stagnant during the Asian session. The CFR China price of PX on September 25 was $817 per ton, and international oil prices continued to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories. The domestic PX operating load was stable, and the demand side was waiting for the implementation of the expected changes in PTA plants. The cost support led to a slight price recovery. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (up 1.61%), with a trading volume of 185,500 lots. The increase in PX supply due to the increase in short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some plant maintenance was obvious, while the demand for PX decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA plant maintenance. The supply - demand situation did not change significantly, and the PX profit would remain low in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The cost support slightly recovered, and the TA2601 contract closed at 4,678 yuan per ton (up 1.74%), with a trading volume of 701,000 lots. The sales of polyester filament on Wednesday evening were around 149% and 175% on Thursday, which was positive for the PTA market. The cost support was strengthened, and there was a strong expectation of PTA plant maintenance due to low processing fees. The leading polyester factories adjusted the production rhythm to stabilize market supply, but the production enterprises faced great pressure to sell at the end of the month. The new orders of weaving enterprises improved, and the shipment speed of grey cloth continued to improve, but the overall inventory pressure in the grey cloth market still existed, leading to the lack of confidence of downstream enterprises in the future market. As the National Day holiday approached, the sentiment in the downstream market was clearly divided, and some enterprises expected the market to improve after the holiday [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of PTA and bottle - chip futures rose, and the supply - side quotation of bottle chips mainly increased, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream terminals was not high, and the trading atmosphere was light. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,840 yuan per ton (up 1.46%), with a trading volume of 28,600 lots. The operating rate of the bottle - chip industry was expected to gradually recover, and the market supply of goods was relatively abundant. The purchasing intention of downstream terminals was not high, and the market trading atmosphere was light [2] Production and Sales and Operating Conditions - **Operating Conditions**: On September 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of PTA plants in the PTA industry chain was 78.12%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.81%, up 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 69.37%, up 0.27 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms was 69.19%, up 1.64 percentage points [1] - **Production and Sales**: On September 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 175.16%, up 94.51 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 88.58%, up 21.54 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 152.51%, up 9.03 percentage points [1]

| | 首说 | 1.美国公布与欧盟关税协议的正式文件。美国正式下调对欧盟汽车关税至15%,自2025年8月1日起生效。（金十数据） | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【多空逻辑】 9月24日,沪線主力合约区间震荡,成交量为107755手（+54856）,特色量为8526手(+4733),伦保涨0.53%。观货市场成交 | | | | 一般。基差升水缩小。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周级矿到浓量增加,港口库存照库;煤铁厂亏损幅度收窄,9月国内排产 | | | | 增加,印尼排产增加,镍铁去库;9月国内电解裂腓产增加,出口盈利扩大。需求瑞,三元群产减少;不锈钢厂排产增加; | | | 媒 | 合金与电镀需求稳定。库存来看,上期所减少,LNE增加,社会库存增加,保税区库存减少。综上,有色金属领铜出现反 | | | | 弹,铜存供应端批动,而铁基本面偏弱并有库存压力,预计银价反弹空间有限。 | | | | 【交易策略】逢高法空。 | | | | 【风险提示】美联储降息预期变化,印尼骚乱升级、菲律宾抗议活动升级 | | 投资集略 | | (观点评分:0) | | | | 【多空逻辑】 | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For lead: Temporarily hold off on trading, take a wait - and - see approach [1] - For zinc: Try to go long at low prices with a light position [1] 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose 0.15%. The supply of lead concentrate imports has no expected increase, and the processing fee is likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the start - up of primary lead fluctuates slightly. The start - up of secondary lead is less than 30% due to factors such as raw materials and losses, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. The terminal market shows no significant improvement, and the peak - season effect is not evident. It is expected that the lead price will remain high in the short term, but the upside space may be limited. [1] - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots rose 0.23% from the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract rose 0.85%. Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply is showing an increasing trend, and the demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3 support the zinc price, and the downside space may be limited in the short term. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: The SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,950 yuan/ton with 0.00% change; the futures main contract closing price is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; the Shanghai lead basis is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 0 - 3 lead premium is - 36.80 dollars/ton, up 3.28 dollars; the futures active contract trading volume is 46,256 lots, up 6.76%; the futures active contract open interest is 62,847 lots, up 2.91%; the LME inventory is 219,550 tons with 0.00% change; the Shanghai lead warrant inventory is 35,584 tons, down 6.75%; the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,009 dollars/ton, up 0.32%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.51, down 0.18% [1] - **Industry News**: A large recycled lead refinery in Inner Mongolia has slow raw material inventory accumulation and plans to resume production after mid - October. Some large recycled lead refineries in Anhui have no pre - holiday resumption plans. On September 24, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.08 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 468 lots to 160,130 lots [1] Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: The SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 21,800 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures main contract closing price is 22,045 yuan/ton, up 0.85%; the Shanghai zinc basis is - 245 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium is 53.93 dollars/ton, down 5.71 dollars; the futures active contract trading volume is 158,280 lots, up 44.24%; the futures active contract open interest is 131,286 lots, down 7.46%; the LME inventory is 43,800 tons with 0.00% change; the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory is 56,583 tons, down 1.35%; the LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,922.50 dollars/ton with 0.00% change; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 7.54, up 0.85% [1] - **Industry News**: Kaz Mineral's zinc concentrate metal output in Q2 2025 was 11,100 tons, and the total in the first half of 2025 was 20,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9%. As of September 25, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 150,400 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from September 18 and 6,600 tons from September 22. On September 24, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 59.64 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 794 lots to 215,283 lots [1]

| 尿素早评20250926:供给压力继续提升 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 单位 | | 9月25日 | 9月24日 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 元/吨 (收盘价) | | 1674.00 | 1673.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% | | UR05 元/吨 民素期货价格 | | 1727.00 | 1724.00 | 3.00 | 0.17% | | UR09 元/吨 | | 1747.00 | 1745.00 | 2.00 | 0.11% | | 山东 元/吨 | | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 山西 元/吨 | 期现价格 | 1490.00 | 1490.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 河南 国内现货价格 | | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | (小顆粒) 河北 元/吨 | | 1650.00 | 1650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View - No information provided in the document. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/9/25 was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41% from the previous value [1]. - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on 2025/9/24 was $841.00 per ton, down 0.59% from the previous value [1]. - The ex - factory price of cycloethane in East China remained unchanged at 6300 yuan per ton [1]. - The spot price of methanol MA on 2025/9/25 was 2255 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - The tax - included pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on 2025/9/25 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of DCE EG主力合约 on 2025/9/25 was 4246 yuan per ton, up 0.28% [1]. - The settlement price of DCE EG主力合约 on 2025/9/25 was 4249 yuan per ton, up 0.52% [1]. - The closing price of DCE EG near - month contract on 2025/9/25 was 4175 yuan per ton, up 0.87% [1]. - The settlement price of DCE EG near - month contract on 2025/9/25 was 4175 yuan per ton, up 0.87% [1]. - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China on 2025/9/25 was 4300 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol (MEG) inner - market on 2025/9/25 was 4305 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The near - far month price difference on 2025/9/25 was 74 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/9/25 was 8475 yuan per ton, down 0.59% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/9/25 was 6850 yuan per ton, down 0.72% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/9/25 was 665 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [1]. - The basis on 2025/9/25 was 59 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/9/25 was 5790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [1]. Operating Conditions - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol on 2025/9/25 was 62.6%, unchanged [1]. - The operating rate of ethylene glycol (petroleum - based) on 2025/9/25 was 65.72%, unchanged [1]. - The operating rate of ethylene glycol (coal - based) on 2025/9/25 was 58.14%, unchanged [1]. - The load rate of polyester factories in the PTA industrial chain on 2025/9/25 was 87.81%, up 0.08% [1]. - The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the PTA industrial chain on 2025/9/25 was 69.19%, up 1.64% [1]. Gross Margin - The after - tax gross margin of MTO MEG on 2025/9/25 was 1519.03 yuan per ton, down 4.66 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The after - tax gross margin of the coal - based synthesis gas method device on 2025/9/25 was 293.81 yuan per ton, up 6.64 yuan from the previous value [1]. External Market - The external market price of naphtha - based ethylene glycol on 2025/9/24 was $130.86 per ton, up $10.40 from the previous value [1]. - The external market price of ethylene - based ethylene glycol on 2025/9/24 was $139.65 per ton, down $3.25 from the previous value [1].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Gold and Silver [1] Report Date - September 25, 2025 [2] Report Author - Wang Wenhu [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The reduction in the expected number of Fed rate cuts in the future may cause short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks, and continuous gold purchases by central banks, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium and long term [4]. Summary by Section Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - US un - paid public debt decreased by $3.3 billion to $3.75 trillion compared to last week. The fiscal deficit in the 2025 fiscal year was $1.97 trillion, an increase of $140 billion from 2024 [11]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $29.2 billion. The Fed's bank reserve balance decreased, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased, and the US Treasury cash account increased. The Treasury plans to increase cash reserves to $850 billion by the end of September [12][14]. - The Fed's rediscount and seasonal loans to commercial banks increased, and the regular financing plan BTFP expired and dropped to $0 [16]. - The implied inflation expectations of US medium - and long - term Treasury bonds increased. The 9 - month consumer one - year and five - year inflation expectations were 4.8% and 3.9% respectively, flat and higher than the previous values [17][18]. - The yields of US medium - and long - term Treasury bonds rebounded, and the yields of medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury bonds increased [19][21]. - The spread between US long - and medium - term Treasury bonds widened, and the OFR financial stress index increased, with credit and stock valuations decreasing, safe assets remaining flat, and volatility increasing [23][27]. Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - The weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases increased, but the weekly rates of commercial and industrial loans and credit card loans decreased [31][32]. - The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales decreased, but consumer spending remained stable [34][36]. - The US MBA mortgage application activity index increased, and the 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates decreased. The total sales of new and existing homes in July increased [37][39]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was lower than expected and the previous value, indicating that the employment market was performing well [40][42]. - The spreads between US and German (Japanese) medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields increased [43][45]. - The euro - US dollar exchange rate weakened, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate strengthened [46]. - The volatilities of the US S&P 500 and gold ETF indexes increased [48]. Part 3: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures increased, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased [54][56]. - The total gold inventories in COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [58][60]. - The domestic - foreign gold futures spread was at a relatively low level, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities [63][65]. - The London - COMEX and Shanghai Gold Exchange - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold basis were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold basis [67]. - The spreads between near - and far - term contracts of COMEX and Shanghai gold were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold monthly spread [69]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures decreased, and the iShare silver ETF holdings increased [71]. - The total silver inventories in COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange increased [72][73]. - The domestic - foreign silver futures spread was within a reasonable range, and investors were advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [74][76]. - The COMEX and Shanghai silver basis were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver basis [78]. - The spreads between near - and far - term contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver near - far - term contract spread [79]. - The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) was between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years, and investors were advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [81]. - The "gold - oil ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) was far above the 90% quantile of the past five years, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities. The "gold - copper ratio" in London and Shanghai (US) was far above (below) the 90% quantile of the past five years, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, high - entry short - selling arbitrage opportunities [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market expects the Fed to reduce the number of interest rate cuts in 2026 from 3 to 2, which may lead to short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium and long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 856.27 yuan/gram, with a change of 6.69 yuan from the previous day and 31.74 yuan from the previous week. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3727.50 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 28.40 dollars from the previous day. London gold spot price was 3761.60 dollars/ounce, and SPDR gold ETF holding decreased by 3.72 tons [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 9811.00 yuan/ten - gram, and the closing price of spot沪银T + D was 9811.00 yuan/ten - gram. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 44.12 dollars/ounce, and London silver spot price was 43.88 dollars/ounce [1] - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 482.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 68.26 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 63.65 dollars/barrel. The dollar index was 97.2351, and major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and UK FTSE 100 had different changes [1] Important Information - Bessent doesn't understand why Powell "backed down" and urges a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year. He is interviewing 11 candidates for the Fed chair. The US Treasury is preparing to buy Argentine dollar bonds and is discussing a 20 - billion - dollar currency swap line. The US officially announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, reducing the EU car tariff to 15% from August 1st [1] Trading Strategy - Some high - cost long positions should take profits at high prices, and then wait for price pull - backs to establish long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3400 - 3500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3840 - 4065 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 880 - 930 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9500 - 9700 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 10500 - 11350 yuan/ten - gram [1]