| 甲醇日评20250925:关注低多机会 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 指标 | 2025/9/23 | 单位 | 2025/9/24 | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 2351.00 | 2343.00 | 8.00 | 元/吨 | 0.34% | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | 2379.00 | 0.17% | 2375.00 | 4.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2342.00 | 2337.00 | 5.00 | 0.21% | | | | | 2255.00 | 2235.00 | 20.00 | 0.89% | 太仓 | 元/呼 | | | | | 元/吨 | 山东 | 2340.00 | 2360.00 | -20.00 | -0.85% | | | | | 元/吨 | 广东 | 2260.00 | 2255.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | 期现价格 | 甲醇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the Fed's hawkish future interest - rate cut path, disruptions in overseas copper mines are leading to an expected supply - demand imbalance, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be more likely to rise than fall [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,960, up 40 from the previous day; trading volume was 51,727 hands, down 11,472; open interest was 172,444 hands, down 850; inventory was 27,419 tons, down 308; the basis was 85, down 5; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,045, up 35 [2] - **London Copper**: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,320, up 326.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was - 31.37, up 41.74; the 3 - 15 month contract spread was - 67.22, up 93.07; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.7481, down 0.25 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.8275, up 0.18 from the previous day; the total inventory was 318,229, down 56 [2] 3.2 Important Information - A fatal mudslide occurred at the Grasberg mine of Freeport McMoRan's Indonesian subsidiary. Freeport expects to resume production to pre - accident levels by 2027 at the earliest, and the copper and gold production in 2026 may decline by about 35% compared to pre - accident estimates [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: The accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the 2026 copper and gold production by about 35%. There are disruptions in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, a tight supply - demand expectation for copper concentrates and scrap copper, a decline in processing fees for refined copper or anode plates, and an increase in the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October [2] - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season is leading to a recovery in demand in some copper processing industries [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week, while the COMEX copper inventory increased [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to take long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support levels around 77,000 - 79,000 and resistance levels around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper; support levels around 9,600 - 9,900 and resistance levels around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper; support levels around 4.3 - 4.5 and resistance levels around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is in high - level consolidation. The supply side has potential disturbances, and the short - term silicon price may maintain high - level consolidation, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. For polysilicon, the price is also in high - level consolidation, and it is difficult for the spot price to rise further in the short term due to high downstream raw material inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.06% to 9,020 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and the start - up rate in the southwest region has steadily increased. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, some silicon material plants have复产 plans, organic silicon supply has tightened and then recovered, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt interval operation and continue to hold out - of - the - money put options [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Data**: N - type dense material fell 0.29% to 51 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material fell 0.28% to 52.5 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material fell 0.30% to 50 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 49.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.23% to 51,380 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are still reducing production, and some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output. On the demand side, trading volume has increased significantly, inventory has decreased, but terminal demand pressure is large, and component price increases face resistance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Industry News - On the evening of September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. started the annual routine maintenance of its first - phase polysilicon production line, and its third - phase project is ready for shutdown and maintenance. This is expected to have a positive impact on product quality and production stability, and will not have a major impact on overall supply [1]. - On September 23, the winning bid results of the first - batch photovoltaic module procurement framework (third tender) of a technology company from 2025 - 2026 were announced, with winning bid prices ranging from 0.71 - 0.76 yuan/W [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots and the closing price of the main lead futures contract decreased slightly. The supply of lead is temporarily tightened, with no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, rising processing fees, and reduced production in the secondary lead sector. Demand from the terminal market is weak, and it is expected that the lead price will remain in high - level consolidation in the short term, with limited upside potential [1]. - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased slightly, while the closing price of the main zinc futures contract increased slightly. The supply of zinc is increasing, with sufficient raw material reserves in smelters and improved production enthusiasm. Demand has slightly improved but was affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the expected interest rate cut support the zinc price, and the downside space of Shanghai zinc is expected to be limited in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead** - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the closing price of the main futures contract was 17,065 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 11.13% to 43,329 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.49% to 61,071 lots; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,002.50 dollars/ton, up 0.18% [1]. - **Supply**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, and the start - up rate fluctuates slightly. In the secondary lead sector, due to raw material and loss factors, the start - up rate is less than 30%, and the supply is temporarily tightened [1]. - **Demand**: The terminal market shows no significant improvement, and dealers mainly digest inventory. Production enterprises produce according to sales. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises [1]. - **News**: A small secondary lead smelter in South China has resumed production, mainly for long - term order delivery. On September 23, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 42.13 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 953 lots to 160,598 lots [1]. **Zinc** - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,750 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,860 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 12.45% to 109,733 lots, and the open interest increased by 1.07% to 141,867 lots; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,922.50 dollars/ton, up 1.14% [1]. - **Supply**: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, and the output shows an obvious increasing trend [1]. - **Demand**: Demand has slightly improved but was affected by typhoon weather, causing some enterprises in South China to shut down for about two days. The export window for zinc ingots may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - **News**: The zinc output of Antamina Mine is expected to increase by 67% this year to 450,000 tons, offsetting a 12% decrease in copper output. On September 23, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 43.16 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 493 lots to 216,077 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [1]. - **Zinc**: Try to go long at low prices with a light position [1].

| 碳酸锂日评20250925:低位震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) 2025-09-24 | | 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-17 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 收盘价 72680.00 | | 73420.00 | 73500.00 | -740.00 | | | 收盘价 72880.00 连一合约 | | 73660.00 | 73640.00 | -780.00 | | | 连二合约 收盘价 72860.00 | | 73580.00 | 73820.00 | -720.00 | | | 连三合约 收盘价 72860.00 | | 73580.00 | 73800.00 | -720.00 | | | 收盘价 72880.00 | | 73660.00 | 73640.00 | -780.00 | ~ | | 砖酸包期货 成交堂(手) 345221.00 活跃合约 | | 497857.00 | 343863.00 | -152.636.00 | | | (元/吨) 持仓堂(手 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract of urea futures. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply - side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - aged production facilities (old facilities over 20 years account for about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity); on the demand - side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, given the easing relationship between China and India. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea prices is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On September 24, UR01 closed at 1673 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.90% from September 23; UR05 closed at 1724 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.64%; UR09 closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.63% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it was 1610 yuan/ton with no change; in Shanxi, 1490 yuan/ton with no change; in Henan, it dropped 10 yuan to 1610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; in Hebei, 1650 yuan/ton with no change; in Northeast China, 1660 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu, 1620 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 114 yuan/ton on September 24, down 11 yuan from September 23. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 51 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [1]. 3.3 Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream Costs**: The price of anthracite coal in Henan was 1000 yuan/ton with no change, and in Shanxi, it was 880 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2930 yuan/ton with no change, in Henan, it was 2520 yuan/ton with no change. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5017 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu, it was 5200 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 3.4 Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1662 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1658 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1673 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 300119 lots [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The market trend is generally stable, but there are fluctuations in different sectors. The supply and demand relationship is complex, with some products showing weak demand and wide supply gaps. Investment decisions should be made carefully, considering factors such as market trends, product prices, and enterprise operations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Conditions**: The market shows a mixed trend, with some products experiencing price declines and others remaining stable. The trading volume and price of some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policy [1][2] - **Product Prices**: The prices of various products, including polyester, ethylene glycol, and other chemicals, fluctuate. For example, the price of ethylene glycol is affected by factors such as raw material costs, production capacity, and market demand [1][2] - **Enterprise Operations**: Enterprises face challenges such as supply and demand imbalances, cost pressures, and market competition. Some enterprises adjust their production plans and marketing strategies according to market conditions [2] - **Investment Suggestions**: Investors are advised to make decisions carefully, considering factors such as market trends, product prices, and enterprise operations. They should also pay attention to risks such as market fluctuations and policy changes [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - As of September 23, 2025, the spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $597.50 per ton, up 0.31% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 22, 2025, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $846.00 per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 24, 2025, the ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,300 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the spot price of methanol MA was 2,250 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the closing price of DCE EG's主力合约 was 4,212 yuan per ton, down 0.66% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,214 yuan per ton, down 0.82% [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the closing price of DCE EG's near - month contract was 4,200 yuan per ton, down 3.18% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,139 yuan per ton, down 4.59% [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the market price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China was 4,280 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of MEG was 4,290 yuan per ton, down 1.04% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the near - far month price difference was 75 yuan per ton, down from 89 yuan per ton; the basis was 78 yuan per ton, down from 95 yuan per ton [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,400 yuan per ton, down 0.23% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.35% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,525 yuan per ton, with no change; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,900 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. Operating Conditions - As of September 23, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 62.62%, up 0.42 percentage points; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 65.72%, up 0.72 percentage points; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 58.14%, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the load rate of polyester factories in the PTA industrial chain was 89.00%, with no change; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.55%, with no change [1]. Cash Flow - As of September 22, 2025, the external - market cash flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $120.46 per ton, down from - $119.50 per ton; the external - market cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol was $137.90 per ton, up from $135.90 per ton [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the after - tax gross profit of MTO - based MEG was 1,518.45 yuan per ton, up 46.46 yuan per ton; the after - tax gross profit of coal - based MEG was 278.32 yuan per ton, down 59.73 yuan per ton [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rates remain restrictive, and the future rate - cut path needs to balance employment and inflation. The market expects the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 to decrease from 3 to 2, which may lead to short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium to long term [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Gold Market - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 855.44, with a change of 8.94 compared to the previous day and 20.36 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 230,847, and the open interest was 260,256. The inventory was 59,013 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The closing price was 830.25 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 53,156 and an open interest of 214,762. The spread (near - month to far - month) was - 3.52, and the basis (spot - to - futures) was - 4.83 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 10,317, with a trading volume of 789,654 and an open interest of 336,864. The inventory was 39,682,786.18 (in troy ounces) [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,783.80 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF holding was 23.77, and the iShare Gold ETF holding was 464.57 [1] Silver Market - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 10,317, with a trading volume of 789,654 and an open interest of 336,864. The inventory was 1,221,428 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: The closing price was 10,275 yuan/ten - gram, with a trading volume of 606,548 and an open interest of 5,348. The spread (near - month to far - month) was - 43, and the basis (spot - to - futures) was - 74 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 44.27 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 75,969 and an open interest of 134,910. The inventory was 526,748,211.09 (in troy ounces) [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 44.33 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holding was 15,469.12, and the PSLV Silver ETF holding was 6,132.75 [1] Other Markets - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was - 9.90 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 67.17 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 62.34 dollars/barrel [1] - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 79,920 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,993.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,155 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 802.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: The SHIBOR was 1.43 and 1.67. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was - 0.03, and the TIPS yield was 1.78 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.2351, the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1013, and the euro - to - RMB central parity rate was 8.3877 [1] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,821.8327, the S&P 500 was 6,656.92, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,223.32, the French CAC40 was 7,872.02, the German DAX was 23,611.33, the Nikkei 225 was 45,493.66, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3,407.31 [1] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to take partial profits on high - cost long positions at high prices and wait for price pull - backs to establish long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,840 - 4,065. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 880 - 930. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 11,350 [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On September 23, the Shanghai nickel main contract oscillated at a low level, with trading volume of 52,899 thousand (-13,200) and open interest of 37,993 lots (-7,075). LME nickel rose 0.83%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. Considering the supply side, nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals increased, and port inventories accumulated. The loss of nickel-iron plants narrowed, domestic production in September increased, as did Indonesia's production, and nickel-iron inventories decreased. In September, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. In terms of inventory, SHFE decreased, LME increased, social inventories increased, and bonded area inventories decreased. With the Fed's interest rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - On September 23, the stainless steel main contract oscillated within a range, with trading volume of 139,017 lots (+402) and open interest of 123,891 lots (-6,126). The spot market saw fair trading at low prices, and the basis premium widened. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventories decreased, and last week's 300-series social inventories were 593,400 tons (-2,900). On the supply side, stainless steel production in September increased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, high-nickel pig iron prices rose, as did high-carbon ferrochrome prices. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost end provides support and inventory pressure is not significant, so prices are expected to oscillate within a range [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 23, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel's near-month, continuous first, continuous second, and continuous third contracts were 120,730 yuan/ton, 120,910 yuan/ton, 121,100 yuan/ton, and 121,340 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared to the previous day. LME 3 - month nickel's spot official price was 15,415 dollars, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,340 dollars, and the on - site closing price was 15,354 dollars, with increases compared to the previous day [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai nickel's trading volume was 52,899 thousand (-13,200), and open interest was 37,993 lots (-7,075). LME 3 - month nickel's trading volume was 5,176 lots (+1,152) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE nickel inventories decreased, while LME nickel inventories increased. SMM China port nickel ore total inventories were 9.71 million wet tons (+180,000), SMM Shanghai bonded area nickel inventories decreased by 600 tons, and SMM pure nickel social inventories increased [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and SHFE nickel active contract closing price was 1,220 yuan/ton (-80). The price spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 23, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel's near - month, continuous first, continuous second, and continuous third contracts were 12,785 yuan/ton, 12,925 yuan/ton, 12,940 yuan/ton, and 12,990 yuan/ton respectively, with slight changes compared to the previous day [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless steel was 139,017 lots (+402), and open interest was 123,891 lots (-6,126) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE stainless steel inventories decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventories were 593,400 tons (-2,900) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis between 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price and active contract was 20 yuan/ton, and the price spreads between different contracts also changed [2]. Market News - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) has imposed sanctions on 25 nickel mining companies in Southeast Sulawesi. A total of 190 general mining licenses were suspended, and the sanctions include a suspension of mining activities for up to 60 days. Once companies submit reclamation plans and necessary guarantees, the sanctions will be lifted [2]. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: Short on rallies [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see [2].