Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Shanghai tin market fluctuated slightly with a weekly decline of 0.29%. On May 9, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 260,000 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations in futures prices and little change in basis [11]. - In March, refined tin production rebounded, while imports of tin ore from January to March 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance to 17,500 tons, a 0.4% decrease from the previous guidance [11]. - Demand recovered in March. Policies supporting consumer goods replacement and AI technological breakthroughs strongly supported tin demand. However, trade disputes in the second quarter affected demand. Currently, macro - demand expectations dominate the market, and policy fluctuations due to trade disputes cause significant swings in demand expectations [11]. - The ore end remains tight, and processing fees are weak. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of ore - end disturbances [11]. - LME inventory increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and social inventory decreased week - on - week, which is conducive to inventory reduction [11]. - Due to the repeated macro - trade dispute policies causing large fluctuations in demand expectations and the short - term recovery of the ore end putting pressure on prices (which has already been reflected in prices), short - term trading is recommended for now. The weekly reference range is 245,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton. Later, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, disturbances in Myanmar and Congo mines, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data verification [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai tin market had a small - scale shock last week, with a 0.29% weekly decline. The spot price of 1 tin on May 9, 2025, was 260,000 yuan/ton, and the basis changed little [11]. - **Supply**: Refined tin production increased in March, and imports of tin ore from January to March 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year. Alphamin cut its production guidance [11]. - **Demand**: Demand recovered in March but was affected by trade disputes in the second quarter. Macro - demand expectations dominate the market, and policy changes lead to large fluctuations in demand expectations. The central bank introduced ten policy measures [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ore end is tight, processing fees are weak, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased slightly, SHFE inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory decreased week - on - week [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term trading is recommended for now, with a weekly reference range of 245,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton. Later, focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [11]. - **Influence Factors**: Production has a bearish impact as the ore - end supply eases; downstream demand is bearish due to trade - affected demand expectations; inventory is neutral as it is being depleted; imports and exports are bullish as net exports are stable; market sentiment and cost - profit are neutral; the macro situation is neutral with no new policies [12]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided [14]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - The report shows graphs of SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no in - depth analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of May 8, 2025, SHFE inventory was 8,334 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease. As of May 7, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,755 tons, a slight week - on - week increase. As of May 2, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 9,782 tons, a week - on - week decrease [27][31]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of May 8, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees remained weak [35]. 3.6 Supply - **Production**: In March 2025, refined tin production was 14,670 tons, an increase after the Spring Festival. Domestic tin ore production in February was 4,926.35 tons, a seasonal decrease [39]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In March 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 62.98%, a slight increase [43]. - **New Capacity**: New tin - mining projects in China, Namibia, Peru, Australia, Morocco, and Myanmar are expected to be put into production from 2024 to 2026, with a total planned capacity of 37,400 tons/year [45]. 3.7 Demand - In March 2025, China's automobile production was 3.0445 million units, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%; electronic computer production was 50.194 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%; PVC production in April 2025 was 1.955 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; mobile electronic communication production in March 2025 was 136.7933 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; air - conditioner production in March 2025 was 33.7118 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%; refrigerator production in March 2025 was 9.3835 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%; washing - machine production in March 2025 was 11.0021 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; color TV production in March 2025 was 17.932 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; solar - cell production in March 2025 was 78.444 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; integrated - circuit production in March 2025 was 419.71999 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [51][55][58][61][64]. 3.8 Imports and Exports - From January to March 2025, China imported tin ore of 9,842 tons, 8,745 tons, and 8,322.5 tons respectively; imported tin of 2,334 tons, 1,869 tons, and 2,100 tons respectively; and exported refined tin of 2,131 tons, 2,373 tons, and 1,714.6 tons respectively [68]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table - The table shows the supply - demand balance of tin from 2017 to 2025E, including China's production, overseas production, global supply, China's demand, overseas demand, global demand, and global supply - demand balance. In 2025E, the global supply - demand balance is - 0.95 million tons [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro**: In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates, and a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [8]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota for nickel ore provides sufficient raw material for smelters, but there is uncertainty about whether the quota in Indonesia can increase as scheduled. In April 2025, China's ferronickel production decreased slightly, while Indonesia's ferronickel production continued to decline from a high level. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises increased slightly, and the output in March increased slightly month - on - month. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel production was 36,450 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: In March, the demand for stainless steel recovered, but the domestic stainless steel inventory was still high, exceeding 1 million tons among 78 sample enterprises. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries declined, and the output of ternary materials rebounded from a low level in March. In April, demand was expected to be affected by trade disputes [8]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, as did the SHFE inventory. The social inventory of refined nickel was 42,806 tons, a decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the RKAB approval quota in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters. However, there is uncertainty about the increase of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, and policy risks remain. The Indonesian government has raised the privilege use fee for nickel resources, increasing supply - side costs. Recently, macro - trade frictions have greatly affected demand expectations, and Shanghai nickel will fluctuate [8]. - **Strategy**: Due to the repeated macro - trade dispute policies in the short term, short - term trading is recommended for the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mine end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产业链结构 (Industrial Chain Structure) - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [10] 3.2期现市场 (Spot and Futures Markets) - The report presents the LME nickel premium and discount (spot/3 months, in US dollars per ton) and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (in yuan per ton) [12] 3.3供应端 (Supply Side) - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore declined significantly. In December 2024, China imported 36.5763 million tons of nickel ore, a 21.7% year - on - year decrease. In January, February, and March 2025, imports were 911,900 tons, 1.146 million tons, and 1.535 million tons respectively [20]. - **Nickel Pig Iron**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel production was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In March 2025, the output was 152,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase in supply. In 2024, domestic ferronickel production was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In April 2025, the output was 21,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease in supply. From January to March 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 929,000 tons, 909,000 tons, and 1.013 million tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.4%, 23.4%, and 60% respectively. In March 2025, the nickel pig iron inventory was 19,800 tons [23][26]. - **Refined Nickel**: With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand in 2024. In April 2025, the total domestic refined nickel production was 36,450 tons, and the apparent consumption in March 2025 was 29,837.1 tons [31]. - **Nickel Imports and Exports**: From January to March 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, and 219,000 tons respectively, showing a decline from a high level. From January to February 2025, China's exports were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, and 16,000 tons respectively [34]. 3.4中间品 (Intermediate Products) - **Wet - Process Intermediates**: According to MYSTEEL research, in March 2025, the output of Indonesian MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) was 37,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase [39]. - **High - Grade Nickel Matte**: The growth rate of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production was relatively under pressure this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In January, February, and March 2025, the output was 26,300 tons, 21,200 tons, and 16,700 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned production capacities for intermediate products from 2025 to 2027, and the long - term supply concern for intermediate products is relatively limited [43]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In 2024, the output of nickel sulfate was 386,100 nickel tons, a 0.44% year - on - year increase. In March 2025, the output was 34,571.6 tons, with a month - on - month increase. From January to February 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, and 18,380 tons respectively [46]. 3.5需求端 (Demand Side) - **Stainless Steel Demand**: In 2024, the release of stainless steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In April 2025, the stainless steel output was 3.5025 million tons, recovering to a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,061,548 tons, a month - on - month increase [50]. - **Cathode Material Demand**: In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From the perspective of the power battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20% in terms of both output and installed capacity. In 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand still has inertia. In March 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 60,800 tons, rising from a low level [54]. 3.6库存端 (Inventory Side) - **Social and Bonded - Area Inventory**: As of May 2, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 42,806 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [61]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of May 7, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease. As of May 8, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 23,564 tons, also a slight month - on - month decrease [65].

1 主要观点 2 期现市场 3 库存端 4 供给端 5 需求端 观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货橡胶周报 ——宏观需求收缩预期强烈 20250420 黎照锋 交易咨询号：Z0000088 从业资格号：F0210135 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 u 宏观：特朗普关税讹诈之下市场忧虑深度衰退。贸易战程度虽然难以预料，但总体利空全球经济已不能避免，而且我国地产周期下行。 年初房地产数据差于预期，对市场情绪造成打击；政治局和政府工作报告要求稳住股市和楼市，但房地产方面要求严控增量而且周期较长， 预料实物工作量持续受限。 u 供应：对于2025年的产量，虽然大周期产能拐点已经到来，但惯性仍在；从天气预期来看，历史上厄尔尼诺后如果次年拉尼娜，那再下 一年增产的概率较大（2017和2021均大幅增产），从国家气候中心获悉，最新海温监测结果显示，赤道中东太平洋海温已进入弱拉尼娜状 态。预测显示，拉尼娜状态将维持到春季中后期；但是，这种统计上的增产也有可能归因于价格高企之后的生产积极性激励，因为厄尔尼 诺后通常导致生产问题从而价格走高，2024年就是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year at constant prices, with a 1.2% quarter-on-quarter increase compared to Q4 2024. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.5%, 5.9%, and 5.3% respectively [4]. - The added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. In March, it increased by 7.7% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.8 percentage points compared to January - February [4]. - The added value of the service industry increased by 5.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. In March, the service industry production index increased by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to January - February [4]. - In Q1 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.0 percentage point compared to the whole of last year. Excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 8.3% [4]. - In Q1 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. In March, it increased by 5.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to January - February [5]. - In Q1 2025, the national surveyed urban unemployment rate averaged 5.3%. In March, it was 5.2%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous month [5]. - In Q1 2025, the per capita disposable income of national residents was 12,179 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.5% year-on-year, and a real increase of 5.6% after deducting price factors [5]. - In Q1 2025, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 10.3013 trillion yuan, a 1.3% year-on-year increase. Exports were 6.1314 trillion yuan, a 6.9% increase, while imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, a 6.0% decrease [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly growth rates from 2022 - 2025 are presented, showing trends in different industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, industry, construction, and services [7]. - Contribution rates of different industries to GDP growth are provided, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, industry, construction, and various service - related sectors [13]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The added value of large - scale industrial enterprises showed different growth rates in different industries and time periods. For example, in March 2025, it increased by 7.7% year-on-year [4][21]. - Different industries such as coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and农副食品 processing had varying year-on-year growth rates of added value in different months [21]. Main Output of Large - Scale Industry - Output data of various industrial products from 2024 - 2025 are presented, including energy products (e.g., crude oil, coal), industrial raw materials (e.g., ethylene, chemical fiber), and finished products (e.g., automobiles, smartphones) [23]. Industry Electricity Consumption - Electricity consumption growth rates of different industries from 2023 - 2024 are provided, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, mining, and manufacturing [31]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - In January - February 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 910.99 billion yuan, a 0.3% year-on-year decrease. Different industries had different profit growth or decline situations [34]. - The profit situation of different industrial categories (mining, manufacturing, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) in January - February 2025 is presented, with mining showing a decline, manufacturing an increase, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water a significant increase [38]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of February 2025, the finished - product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.37 trillion yuan, a 4.2% increase, with an improvement in the inventory situation compared to December last year [43]. - Inventory data of large - scale industrial enterprises in different industries and time periods from 2024 - 2025 are provided, showing trends in different industrial chains [45]. Price Index CPI - In March 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Different categories of consumer goods had different price changes [48]. - CPI data of different consumer goods categories from 2024 - 2025 are presented, including food, clothing, housing, and transportation [49]. PPI - In March 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with different price changes in production and living materials [55]. - PPI data of different industries from 2024 - 2025 are provided, such as mining, raw materials, and processing industries [55][58]. Real Estate - Data on the price indices (year - on - year and month - on - month) of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities from 2015 - 2025 are presented, showing different trends in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities [62][64].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油周报 市场情绪平复，基本面支撑油价 20250420 黄秀仕 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：美国上周商业原油库存增加，尽管原油出口量大幅增加，而馏分油和汽油库存下降。当周美国商业原油库存增加51.5万桶，至4.429亿桶，此前市场预期为增 加50.7万桶。美国战略石油储备(SPR)增加30万桶，至3.970亿桶。美国汽油库存减少200万桶，至2.34亿桶，此前市场预期为减少160万桶。美国当周包括柴油和取 暖油的馏分油库存减少190万桶，至1.092亿桶，为自2023年11月以来的最低水平，此前市场预期为减少120万桶。当周美国库欣的原油库存减少654,000桶。美国原 油净进口量减少204.5万桶/日，至90.1万桶/日，四周均值为200.4万桶/日。 ◆ 供应：关税政策对供应端影响较小，中国减少美国原油进口可能促使中东、俄罗斯等产油国填补市场空缺，改变国际原油供需格局。上周美国原油产量维持不变在 1350万桶/日水平，比去年同期增长30万桶/日。根据OPEC+最新补偿计划，从4月到2026年6月期间减产30.48万桶/日，每月减产量将从1 ...

交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 审核：黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 需求分化 成本支撑减弱 20250420 黄桂仁 周度观点 供应：上周PVC上游开工率77.35%，环比增加0.68个百分点，同比增加4.17个百分点，处在同期中性位。主要 是乙烯法装置开工率上升，预计本周供应仍将小幅增加。 需求：上周下游制品综合开工率小幅走低。主要是硬制品开工率维持低位，地板类企业受关税影响出口，软 制品开工尚可。 库存：上周社会库存（41 家）72.52万吨，环比降低3.74%，同比降低16.95%。企业库存41.12万吨，环比降 低8.97%，同比增加4.60%。厂库社库均有去库，但总体看库存仍有压力。 观点：电石价格周度环比大幅回落，乙烯价格偏弱，成本驱动偏空。总体看短中期供需两弱，盘面空头趋势 暂未改变，但仍受外围影响波动。 策略：操作方面稳健型暂观望，激进型少量空单持有，可持有虚值看涨期权保护，2509合约压力参考5150- 5200。 产业链结构 周度观点及策略 产业链结构 期现 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Hualian Futures PTA Weekly Report: Demand Affected by Tariff War, Cost Drivers Strengthening" [2] - Report Date: 20250420 [2] - Researcher: Huang Guiren [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has rebounded in the short - term, and cost drivers have strengthened. Overall, supply is at a high level, there is differentiation among different product lines on the demand side, and inventory is shifting downstream. Attention should be paid to the development of external tariff issues [6]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - Operation strategy: Aggressive investors should hold short positions lightly. For options, use a small number of call options for hedging. The resistance level of the 2509 contract is around 4450 [5]. 2. Supply - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 76.74%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 4.97 percentage points year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. Sichuan Energy Investment carried out scheduled maintenance, and there were few changes in other devices. This week, Fujian Baihong is expected to restart, and production may increase [6][20]. - Last week, PTA production was 133.85 tons, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week and an increase of 8.68% year - on - year. From January to February 2025, China's cumulative PTA imports were 0.52 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30%. As domestic self - sufficiency rate gradually increases, imports are further reduced and can be basically ignored [24]. 3. Demand - In March 2025, the actual PTA consumption was 6.0177 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.62% and a year - on - year increase of 9.30%. Last week, the average polyester operating rate was 91.09%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.42 percentage points year - on - year, generally at a relatively high level in the same period [28]. - Last week, the weekly polyester industry output was 1.5588 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.41% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. As of April 17, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.94%, a decrease of 2.31 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 16.55 percentage points year - on - year. Terminal textiles are significantly affected by tariff issues, new orders are limited, and market transaction pressure has increased [30]. 4. Inventory - According to Longzhong Information, last week, the PTA industry inventory was about 4.4583 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%. The PTA factory inventory was 4.36 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week and a decrease of 0.95 days year - on - year [52]. - Last week, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 9.4 days, a decrease of 0.85 days from the previous week and an increase of 1.47 days year - on - year [53]. 5. Futures Market - Last week, the 1 - 5 spread weakened and was higher than the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly from the previous week and was stronger than the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread showed a slight premium pattern with near - term prices lower and far - term prices higher [13]. - The 9 - 1 spread weakened from the previous week and was lower than the same period last year. The basis increased from the previous week and was stronger than the same period last year [16]. 6. Valuation - PX prices declined. PTA spot processing fees weakened from the previous week and were higher than the same period last year. The futures disk processing fees remained stable from the previous week and were the same as the same period last year [70][74][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the PVC futures market showed a downward - oscillating trend with a narrowing decline. The cost - driven force was insufficient due to the continuous decline in coal prices and the low position of calcium carbide prices. Although the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali was acceptable, it was difficult to have a negative feedback on the PVC operating rate from the profit side. The report suggests continuing to focus on the implementation of domestic macro - stimulus policies, the rhythm of demand recovery, and the speed of inventory depletion. The mid - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the 2509 contract should pay attention to the support around the 5000 integer mark. If there are further policies exceeding expectations and the building materials sector improves, there may be opportunities for bargain - hunting [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quarter - View and Strategy - **Market Review**: In Q1, the PVC futures market oscillated downward. In January, it oscillated widely due to multiple factors; in February, it oscillated narrowly due to inventory accumulation and weak supply - demand; in March, it weakened again due to the under - expected demand recovery and the weakness of the black building materials sector [5]. - **Supply**: The PVC plant operating rate first increased and then decreased in Q1, with an end - of - quarter rate of 79.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71 percentage points. The overall output increased slightly. The maintenance loss first decreased and then increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation of spring maintenance and the rhythm of new production capacity [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of downstream products first decreased and then increased seasonally in Q1, with an end - of - quarter comprehensive operating rate of 48.91%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57 percentage points, at the lowest level in history. Hard products performed the weakest. The real estate was in a weak recovery rhythm and was difficult to effectively drive domestic demand. Overseas, attention should be paid to the impact of India's anti - dumping on PVC powder exports [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory first increased and then decreased seasonally. At the end of Q1, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 80.53 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.56%, and the enterprise inventory was 44.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01%. The overall inventory was in the depletion process, but the absolute quantity was still at a relatively high level [5]. - **Viewpoint**: The cost - driven force was insufficient. It was difficult to have a negative feedback on the PVC operating rate from the profit side. Continue to focus on domestic macro - stimulus policies, demand recovery, and inventory depletion [5]. - **Strategy**: Treat it as weakly oscillating in the mid - term. Pay attention to the support around the 5000 integer mark for the 2509 contract. There may be bargain - hunting opportunities if there are further policies exceeding expectations [5]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - **PVC Contract Spreads**: In Q1, the 1 - 5 spread declined slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread also narrowed slightly. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintained a contango pattern, indicating that the reality was weaker than expected. The 9 - 1 spread was narrowly sorted, and the negative basis of the main contract narrowed slightly [12][13]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity and Output**: As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 27.82 million tons. From January to February 2025, the cumulative domestic PVC output was 3.973 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79%. The effective production capacity of calcium carbide - based PVC was 20.15 million tons, accounting for about 72.4%, and the cumulative output from January to February was 2.9452 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53%. The effective production capacity of ethylene - based PVC was 7.67 million tons, accounting for about 27.6%, and the output from January to February was 1.0278 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [16][19][22]. - **Operating Rate and Maintenance**: The PVC operating rate first increased and then decreased in Q1, with an end - of - quarter rate of 79.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71 percentage points, at a neutral level in recent years. The maintenance loss first decreased and then increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation of spring maintenance. At the end of Q1, the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.89%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 74.35%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.03 percentage points, at a low level in the same period, and its operating rate fluctuated greatly [25][27]. - **Imports**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative PVC imports were 39,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.19%. The import volume of plastics and their products in China was 3.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.24% [30]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 3.4024 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.78% [34]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of downstream products first decreased and then increased seasonally in Q1, with an end - of - quarter comprehensive operating rate of 48.91%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57 percentage points, at the lowest level in history. Hard products performed the weakest, and the pipe operating rate was 47.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5 percentage points. At the end of Q1, the operating rate of profile enterprises was 42.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.68 percentage points; the operating rate of film soft products was 70.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.32 percentage points [37][40]. - **Exports**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 610,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.36%, mainly sold to India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc., with over 50% exported to India. The cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 693,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.52%, mainly sold to the United States, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, and Australia [41][42]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: In January - February 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 9.8% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The construction area, new construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate all showed year - on - year declines. With the support of "stabilizing the real estate market" policies, the real estate market may have a "small spring" in March. In terms of infrastructure, the full - caliber and narrow - caliber (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water) infrastructure investment growth rates in January - February were 10.0% and 5.6% respectively, with an increase of 3.4 percentage points and a decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared with December last year [45]. 3.5 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory first increased and then decreased seasonally. At the end of Q1, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 805,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.56%; the small - sample social inventory (21 companies) was 469,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.42% [47]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: At the end of Q1, the enterprise inventory was 440,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01%. The PVC standard warehouse receipts decreased from the high level in Q1, and attention should be paid to the re - registration of warehouse receipts later [52]. 3.6 Valuation - **Lancoke and Calcium Carbide**: In Q1, the Lancoke price oscillated and declined to the lowest level in history, and the calcium carbide price first decreased and then increased but was still at the weakest level in the same period. The calcium carbide production profit generally recovered, which was mainly affected by power restrictions in some areas and PVC demand [56]. - **Ethylene and Vinyl Chloride**: In Q1, the ethylene price first increased and then decreased with small fluctuations, and the vinyl chloride price oscillated and declined slightly. Both were at the weakest levels in recent years [59]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine**: The liquid caustic soda price first increased and then decreased with large fluctuations, and the liquid chlorine price first decreased and then increased due to the disturbance of market expectations and weak reality [62]. - **PVC Profit**: In Q1, the production profit of calcium carbide - based PVC first narrowed the loss and then expanded it again, and the loss of ethylene - based PVC continued to expand. The production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali oscillated upward [65][68].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 2月回笼现金9 5 3 8亿元 20250316 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 审核：黎照锋交易咨询号：Z0000088 周度观点及策略 周度观点 2月社融增量为2.23万亿元，同比多增7374亿元，社融增速为8.2%，较上月提高0.2个百分点。新增人民币贷款1.01万亿元，同比少增4400亿 元，各项贷款增速较上月回落0.2个百分点至7.3%。 政府债支撑社融回升：2月政府债券净融资额同比多增约1.1万亿元，政府债券余额同比增长18.1%至83.47万亿元，占社融规模存量的20%， 较上月占比提高。2月用于化解地方债务的置换债券发行近8000亿元，超过去年全年的三分之一，有助于各地纾解资金链条，减轻经济包袱， 支持地方腾出更多资金用于保障民生、支持创新等，增强经济发展的内生动能，也增大了未来信贷增长的潜能。 企业信贷需求不足：企业短贷、中长贷同比分别少增2000亿元、7500亿元，是2月新增 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 央行再度增持黄金 贸易顺差创新高 20250309 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 审核：黎照锋交易咨询号：Z0000088 周度观点及策略 月度观点 截至2025年2月末，我国黄金储备量达到7361万盎司，相较于1月末的7345万盎司，增长了16万盎司。值得注意的是，央行已连续四个月稳步 扩大黄金储备规模。展望后续，鉴于我国国际储备体系中黄金储备占比相对较低，预计央行将持续增持黄金，这仍会是未来一段时间内的重 要趋势。 截至2025年2月末，我国外汇储备规模达32272亿美元，较1月末增加182亿美元，升幅为0.57%。主要经济体宏观政策调整、经济数据表现， 以及主要央行货币政策预期等多重因素交织影响，致使美元指数出现下跌，全球金融资产价格呈现涨跌不一的态势。在汇率折算及资产价格 波动等综合因素的作用下，当月外汇储备规模实现上升。我国经济具备坚实基础、多元优势、强大韧性与巨大潜能，这些积极因素 ...