1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the PVC futures market showed a downward - oscillating trend with a narrowing decline. The cost - driven force was insufficient due to the continuous decline in coal prices and the low position of calcium carbide prices. Although the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali was acceptable, it was difficult to have a negative feedback on the PVC operating rate from the profit side. The report suggests continuing to focus on the implementation of domestic macro - stimulus policies, the rhythm of demand recovery, and the speed of inventory depletion. The mid - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the 2509 contract should pay attention to the support around the 5000 integer mark. If there are further policies exceeding expectations and the building materials sector improves, there may be opportunities for bargain - hunting [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quarter - View and Strategy - **Market Review**: In Q1, the PVC futures market oscillated downward. In January, it oscillated widely due to multiple factors; in February, it oscillated narrowly due to inventory accumulation and weak supply - demand; in March, it weakened again due to the under - expected demand recovery and the weakness of the black building materials sector [5]. - **Supply**: The PVC plant operating rate first increased and then decreased in Q1, with an end - of - quarter rate of 79.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71 percentage points. The overall output increased slightly. The maintenance loss first decreased and then increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation of spring maintenance and the rhythm of new production capacity [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of downstream products first decreased and then increased seasonally in Q1, with an end - of - quarter comprehensive operating rate of 48.91%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57 percentage points, at the lowest level in history. Hard products performed the weakest. The real estate was in a weak recovery rhythm and was difficult to effectively drive domestic demand. Overseas, attention should be paid to the impact of India's anti - dumping on PVC powder exports [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory first increased and then decreased seasonally. At the end of Q1, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 80.53 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.56%, and the enterprise inventory was 44.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01%. The overall inventory was in the depletion process, but the absolute quantity was still at a relatively high level [5]. - **Viewpoint**: The cost - driven force was insufficient. It was difficult to have a negative feedback on the PVC operating rate from the profit side. Continue to focus on domestic macro - stimulus policies, demand recovery, and inventory depletion [5]. - **Strategy**: Treat it as weakly oscillating in the mid - term. Pay attention to the support around the 5000 integer mark for the 2509 contract. There may be bargain - hunting opportunities if there are further policies exceeding expectations [5]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - **PVC Contract Spreads**: In Q1, the 1 - 5 spread declined slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread also narrowed slightly. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintained a contango pattern, indicating that the reality was weaker than expected. The 9 - 1 spread was narrowly sorted, and the negative basis of the main contract narrowed slightly [12][13]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity and Output**: As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 27.82 million tons. From January to February 2025, the cumulative domestic PVC output was 3.973 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79%. The effective production capacity of calcium carbide - based PVC was 20.15 million tons, accounting for about 72.4%, and the cumulative output from January to February was 2.9452 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53%. The effective production capacity of ethylene - based PVC was 7.67 million tons, accounting for about 27.6%, and the output from January to February was 1.0278 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [16][19][22]. - **Operating Rate and Maintenance**: The PVC operating rate first increased and then decreased in Q1, with an end - of - quarter rate of 79.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71 percentage points, at a neutral level in recent years. The maintenance loss first decreased and then increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation of spring maintenance. At the end of Q1, the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.89%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 74.35%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.03 percentage points, at a low level in the same period, and its operating rate fluctuated greatly [25][27]. - **Imports**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative PVC imports were 39,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.19%. The import volume of plastics and their products in China was 3.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.24% [30]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 3.4024 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.78% [34]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of downstream products first decreased and then increased seasonally in Q1, with an end - of - quarter comprehensive operating rate of 48.91%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57 percentage points, at the lowest level in history. Hard products performed the weakest, and the pipe operating rate was 47.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5 percentage points. At the end of Q1, the operating rate of profile enterprises was 42.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.68 percentage points; the operating rate of film soft products was 70.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.32 percentage points [37][40]. - **Exports**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 610,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.36%, mainly sold to India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc., with over 50% exported to India. The cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 693,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.52%, mainly sold to the United States, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, and Australia [41][42]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: In January - February 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 9.8% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The construction area, new construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate all showed year - on - year declines. With the support of "stabilizing the real estate market" policies, the real estate market may have a "small spring" in March. In terms of infrastructure, the full - caliber and narrow - caliber (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water) infrastructure investment growth rates in January - February were 10.0% and 5.6% respectively, with an increase of 3.4 percentage points and a decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared with December last year [45]. 3.5 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory first increased and then decreased seasonally. At the end of Q1, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 805,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.56%; the small - sample social inventory (21 companies) was 469,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.42% [47]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: At the end of Q1, the enterprise inventory was 440,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01%. The PVC standard warehouse receipts decreased from the high level in Q1, and attention should be paid to the re - registration of warehouse receipts later [52]. 3.6 Valuation - **Lancoke and Calcium Carbide**: In Q1, the Lancoke price oscillated and declined to the lowest level in history, and the calcium carbide price first decreased and then increased but was still at the weakest level in the same period. The calcium carbide production profit generally recovered, which was mainly affected by power restrictions in some areas and PVC demand [56]. - **Ethylene and Vinyl Chloride**: In Q1, the ethylene price first increased and then decreased with small fluctuations, and the vinyl chloride price oscillated and declined slightly. Both were at the weakest levels in recent years [59]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine**: The liquid caustic soda price first increased and then decreased with large fluctuations, and the liquid chlorine price first decreased and then increased due to the disturbance of market expectations and weak reality [62]. - **PVC Profit**: In Q1, the production profit of calcium carbide - based PVC first narrowed the loss and then expanded it again, and the loss of ethylene - based PVC continued to expand. The production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali oscillated upward [65][68].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 2月回笼现金9 5 3 8亿元 20250316 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 审核：黎照锋交易咨询号：Z0000088 周度观点及策略 周度观点 2月社融增量为2.23万亿元，同比多增7374亿元，社融增速为8.2%，较上月提高0.2个百分点。新增人民币贷款1.01万亿元，同比少增4400亿 元，各项贷款增速较上月回落0.2个百分点至7.3%。 政府债支撑社融回升：2月政府债券净融资额同比多增约1.1万亿元，政府债券余额同比增长18.1%至83.47万亿元，占社融规模存量的20%， 较上月占比提高。2月用于化解地方债务的置换债券发行近8000亿元，超过去年全年的三分之一，有助于各地纾解资金链条，减轻经济包袱， 支持地方腾出更多资金用于保障民生、支持创新等，增强经济发展的内生动能，也增大了未来信贷增长的潜能。 企业信贷需求不足：企业短贷、中长贷同比分别少增2000亿元、7500亿元，是2月新增 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 央行再度增持黄金 贸易顺差创新高 20250309 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 审核：黎照锋交易咨询号：Z0000088 周度观点及策略 月度观点 截至2025年2月末，我国黄金储备量达到7361万盎司，相较于1月末的7345万盎司，增长了16万盎司。值得注意的是，央行已连续四个月稳步 扩大黄金储备规模。展望后续，鉴于我国国际储备体系中黄金储备占比相对较低，预计央行将持续增持黄金，这仍会是未来一段时间内的重 要趋势。 截至2025年2月末，我国外汇储备规模达32272亿美元，较1月末增加182亿美元，升幅为0.57%。主要经济体宏观政策调整、经济数据表现， 以及主要央行货币政策预期等多重因素交织影响，致使美元指数出现下跌，全球金融资产价格呈现涨跌不一的态势。在汇率折算及资产价格 波动等综合因素的作用下，当月外汇储备规模实现上升。我国经济具备坚实基础、多元优势、强大韧性与巨大潜能，这些积极因素 ...

交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 20250302 作者：黄秀仕 0769-22110802 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观月报 建筑业景气度回暖 2025年2月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.2%，比上月增长1.1%，制造业景气水平明显回升。 具体而言，生产指数攀升至52.5%，较上月大幅上升2.7个百分点；新订单指数达到51.1%，较上月上升1.9个百分点，二者均升至扩张区间， 彰显出制造业产需状况得到明显改善。从行业维度来看，有色金属冶炼及压延加工、通用设备、电气机械器材等行业表现强劲，其生产指数 和新订单指数均处于54.0%及以上的较高水平，产需释放极为迅速。然而，纺织服装服饰、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工等行业的表现则不尽人 意，两个指数均低于临界点，行业供需呈现偏弱态势。纺织服装服饰行业受市场需求变化、成本上升以及竞争加剧等多重因素影响，市场需 求增长乏力；石油煤炭及其他燃料加工行业则可能因能源结构调整、环保政策等因素，面临着一定的发展压力。 主要原材料购进价格指数为50.8%，较上月上升1.3个百分点，表明制造业原材料采购价格总体水平 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 社融统计口径变化 20250216 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 审核：黎照锋交易咨询号：Z0000088 周度观点及策略 周度观点 国民经济核算 GDP同比 图：实际GDP同比（%） | | 2022年9月 | 2022年12月 | 2023年3月 | 2023年6月 | 2023年9月 | 2023年12月 | 2024年3月 | 2024年6月 | 2024年9月 | 2024年12月 | 近五年当季同比走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDP季度同比 | 4 | 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.4 | | | 农林牧渔业 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.5 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 央行再度增持黄金 美非农数据疲软 20250209 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 审核：黎照锋交易咨询号：Z0000088 周度观点及策略 周度观点 2025年1月份，春节效应影响下，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.5%，环比上涨0.7%。 食品烟酒类价格同比上涨0.6%，影响CPI上涨约0.16个百分点。食品中，畜肉类价格上涨2.5%，影响CPI上涨约0.08个百分点，其中猪肉价格 上涨13.8%，影响CPI上涨约0.17个百分点；鲜菜价格上涨2.4%，影响CPI上涨约0.05个百分点；粮食价格下降1.4%，影响CPI下降约0.03个百 分点。其他用品及服务、教育文化娱乐、衣着价格分别上涨5.4%、1.7%和1.1%，医疗保健、居住价格分别上涨0.7%和0.1%；生活用品及服务、 交通通信价格分别下降1.1%和0.6%。 2025年1月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.3%，降幅与上月相同， ...

Economic Growth - In December, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with 34 out of 41 major industries showing growth[4] - The automotive manufacturing industry saw a significant increase of 17.7% in December, while new energy vehicles surged by 43.2%[4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,217.7 billion yuan in 2024, marking a growth of 3.2% compared to the previous year[6] Currency and Trade - On January 24, 2025, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate rose significantly, reaching a peak of 7.2370, an increase of 462 points from the previous trading day[5] - China's exports in December 2024 increased by 10.7% year-on-year, while imports grew by 1.0%, resulting in a trade surplus of 104.84 billion USD, up 40.3%[5] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced the issuance of 60 billion yuan in central bank bills, tightening offshore RMB liquidity[5] - The total social financing scale for 2024 was 32.26 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.32 trillion yuan from the previous year[6] Real Estate Sector - In 2024, national real estate development investment fell by 10.6% year-on-year, with residential investment down by 10.5%[6] - The new construction area of commercial housing decreased by 12.9% in 2024, with residential sales area declining by 14.1%[6]

Economic Performance - In 2024, China's GDP reached 13,490.84 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year[3] - The quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.3% in Q1, 4.7% in Q2, 4.6% in Q3, and 5.4% in Q4[3] - The industrial value added for 2024 increased by 5.8% compared to the previous year[3] Trade and Exports - In December 2024, China's exports grew by 10.7% year-on-year, up from 6.7% in the previous month, indicating a "grab export" effect[3] - The trade surplus for December 2024 was $10.484 billion, a 40.3% increase year-on-year[3] - For the entire year, exports increased by 5.9% while imports rose by 1.1%[3] Investment Trends - Total fixed asset investment in 2024 was 514,374 billion yuan, a 3.2% increase from the previous year[4] - Real estate development investment fell by 10.6% in 2024, with residential investment down by 10.5%[4] - Infrastructure investment (excluding utilities) grew by 4.4%, with water management investment up by 41.7%[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales for 2024 totaled 487,895 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% increase year-on-year[4] - In December 2024, retail sales reached 45,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year[4] - The sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 12.3% in 2024, indicating strong demand in basic and upgraded consumer goods[4]

展望 2025 年，随着宏观经济的持续复苏，整体经济环境不断向好，居民收入水平将稳步增长，这无疑会为住房消费升级提供坚实的支撑。 房地产市场有望在调整中逐步趋稳，一线城市核心地段高端住宅需求有望提升，带动价格温和上涨，成交量或因政策优化而小幅回暖。新一 线城市在产业发展带动下，房地产市场将更注重品质与配套，价格逐渐企稳，成交量有望保持稳定增长。三四线城市则需加快产业导入与人 口集聚，以消化库存为首要任务，房价止跌企稳后，市场交易逐步恢复正常节奏。 年度观点 2024年中国进出口保持稳定增长态势。据海关统计，前11个月，中国货物贸易进出口总值达39.79万亿元人民币，同比增长4.9%。其中，出 口额为23.04万亿元，同比增长6.7%；进口额为16.75万亿元，同比增长2.4%。从贸易方式来看，一般贸易和加工贸易均呈现增长态势，一般 贸易进出口额为25.5万亿元，增长3.7%，加工贸易进出口额为7.22万亿元，同比增长3.6%。出口结构上，以电动汽车、光伏产品和锂电池为 代表的 "新三样" 成为出口新增长点。机电产品出口额占出口总值的近6成，达到13.7万亿元，同比增长8.4%。其中，自动数据处理设备 及其零部 ...

Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The Central Political Bureau and the Central Economic Work Conference have indicated that China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2024, aligning with previous supportive monetary policy stances[5] - Market expectations for a loose monetary policy have risen, leading to a rapid decline in long-term interest rates, with the 30-year government bond yield dipping below 2%[5] Economic Indicators - In November 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while it fell by 0.6% month-on-month; the average CPI increase from January to November was 0.3% compared to the previous year[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.5% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[7] Credit and Financing - In November, new RMB loans amounted to 580 billion yuan, significantly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 945 billion yuan, and a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan[9] - Total social financing (TSF) for November was 2.34 trillion yuan, also below the expected 2.59 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.197 trillion yuan[9] Trade Performance - In November, China's exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year to $312.31 billion, while imports fell by 3.9% to $214.87 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $97.44 billion[11]