1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has entered an interest - rate cut cycle, which may indirectly affect egg prices through inflation expectations. However, China's egg prices are mainly determined by domestic supply - demand relations [8]. - In 2025, the domestic egg market has a core contradiction of oversupply and weak demand. But the supply pressure is expected to ease in the future, and the egg price is expected to stabilize and rebound next year [15]. - The industrial subsidy policies may reduce the breeding cost in the long - term but may also lead to over - capacity expansion, while the environmental protection and epidemic prevention policies are beneficial to the long - term development of the industry [18]. - The egg market in 2025 is characterized by significant supply - demand imbalance. In December, the supply - demand pattern is shifting from loose to tight - balance, and the egg price has fundamental support, but the upside space is restricted [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs International Situation - The global economic growth slows down. The IMF predicts that the global GDP will grow by 3.2% in 2025 and may further slow down to 3.1% in 2026 [8]. - The Fed has cut interest rates, which may lead to inflation expectations and increase the cost of egg breeding, but the impact on China's egg prices is indirect [8]. - The global egg market scale in 2025 is $121.42 billion with a growth rate of 8.9%. Due to the impact of avian influenza, the egg prices in different countries have diverged, and China's exports may increase [11]. Domestic Situation - China's economic situation is generally stable, but domestic demand is insufficient. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 is 101.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, and the annual growth is expected to be about 5.0% [15]. - The continuous low egg price reflects the imbalance between supply and demand of agricultural products in China. Although the impact on CPI is limited, it is regarded as an inflation "wind - vane" [15]. - The domestic egg market has a core contradiction of oversupply and weak demand. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is affected by substitutes. The egg price is low, and the breeding profit is at a five - year low. However, the supply pressure is expected to ease [15]. Macro Policy - There are industrial support policies such as subsidies for farmers using self - bred improved varieties, and financial support policies like loan interest subsidies and policy - based insurance [18]. - Overall, industrial subsidy policies may lead to over - capacity, while environmental protection and epidemic prevention policies are beneficial to the long - term development of the industry [18]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals and Annual Viewpoint Strategy - In November 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, showing a slight decline. In December, the number of newly - opened laying hens will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level [22][49]. - As of December 12, the average price in the main production areas was 3.09 yuan per catty. In the short term, the egg price is under pressure, while in the medium term, the supply - demand expectation has improved [22][36]. - The egg market in 2025 is characterized by supply - demand imbalance. The supply - demand pattern is changing, and the egg price has support but limited upside. The strategy is that the main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, and long positions in far - month contracts and call options can be considered in the medium term [24]. Technical Analysis - In the short term, the JD2603 contract shows a downward - oscillating trend, with the 5 - day moving average in a short - selling arrangement. The K - line may indicate a short - term rebound, but the 20 - day moving average is a strong resistance [103]. - In the medium - term on the weekly level, there is a "double - top" prototype, and if the neck - line support at about 3012 points is broken, the price may fall further [103]. - The support level is 2937 - 3000, and the resistance level is 3150 - 3195 [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon will remain loose, with an expected supply growth rate of about 8% and a demand growth rate of about 5%, and the surplus is expected to further expand. For trading strategies, it is recommended to short SI2601 at high prices, buy put options, or adopt an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [9]. - In 2026, the supply and demand of polysilicon are expected to increase slightly, continue to improve, and basically reach a balanced state. The recommended strategy is to go long on PS2601 at low prices, buy call options, or adopt an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [10]. - The "Short SI2605 + Long PS2605" arbitrage strategy is recommended. When the PS2605 - 5SI2605 spread is in the range of 7500 - 8500, build a position at a ratio of 3 to 1. The reason is that the anti - involution policy is conducive to the spread expansion [43]. Summary by Directory Annual Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - In 2025, the spot and futures prices of industrial silicon showed a pattern of first decline, then rise, and then oscillation. The annual production capacity remained at a high level, with no substantial signs of capacity clearance. In 2026, the supply is expected to remain loose. The demand from polysilicon may decline, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy demand will grow steadily. The cost decreased in 2025, but most silicon plants had limited profit space. The futures inventory is low, while the spot inventory is high. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase by about 8%, and the demand by about 5%, with a continued loose supply - demand pattern [9]. Polysilicon - In 2025, the polysilicon price fluctuated greatly in a "V" shape. The production capacity increased in 2025, but the output decreased significantly due to losses and self - discipline production cuts. In 2026, if the supply - side reform progresses smoothly, the supply may increase slightly with demand. The domestic demand is weak, while the global demand will maintain a moderate growth. The cost decreased slightly in 2025, and the profit improved significantly. The inventory is high. In 2026, the supply and demand are expected to increase slightly and basically reach a balanced state [10]. Cost and Profit - In 2025, the power consumption of industrial silicon decreased, and the prices of raw materials such as silicon coal and electrodes declined, driving the production cost down. The full - cost of industrial silicon in the northwest region is mainly in the range of 7500 - 9000 yuan/ton, and in the southwest region, it is 8500 - 10000 yuan/ton during the wet season and 10000 - 11500 yuan/ton during the dry season, with an overall comprehensive cost of 8000 - 10000 yuan/ton [191]. Industry Chain Diagram - The industrial silicon industry chain involves raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, and silicon ore. Industrial silicon can be processed into organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy, which are further used in various fields such as electronics, construction, and photovoltaic [47]. Industry International Situation - In 2025, the global industrial silicon trade pattern was structurally adjusted. China is the largest producer and exporter, with stable export volume but a decline in the export structure. The overseas production cost is high, and the capacity expansion willingness is low. The green certification requirements of multinational enterprises are increasing, which promotes the industry's transformation to low - carbon production. However, the overall green transformation of the industry still faces challenges [50][52][54]. Industry Domestic Situation - In 2025, the industrial silicon production capacity in China shifted westward, with the northwest region becoming the core production area. The domestic photovoltaic demand showed phased fluctuations and structural differentiation. The environmental protection inspection promoted the industry's transformation to low - carbon and intensive development, accelerating the clearance of small and medium - sized production capacities [57][59][61]. Supply - From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 3.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.39%. The supply pressure was relieved to some extent. In 2026, there is an expectation of supply recovery. The new production capacity in 2025 - 2026 is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and other regions, with a total of 1.88 million tons [73][82]. Demand - From January to October 2025, the cumulative actual consumption of industrial silicon was 2.6612 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.26%. Polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy are the main downstream consumers, accounting for 50%, 30%, and 16% respectively. In the future, the polysilicon demand may decline, the organic silicon demand is weak, and the aluminum alloy demand will grow steadily but with limited impact on the overall demand [117]. Inventory - The high inventory of industrial silicon has been the main factor suppressing the market. The inventory increased slightly in 2025, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly in 2026. The polysilicon inventory is also high, and the inventory - building situation continues [31][10]. Technical Analysis - In the 2025 market, using the fast - line crossing above the slow - line as a buying signal had an accuracy rate higher than 75%. The fast - line is generally defined as the 5 - day moving average, and the slow - line as the 20, 40, or 60 - day moving average [245].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货螺纹钢年报 建筑需求疲软拖累，关注政策扰动供应 20251215 孙伟涛 0769-222110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 宏观：国内坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策。外部环境方面，海外贸易摩擦加剧对出口带来压力，但国内产业优势韧性尚可，出口向中高 端转化。全球降息预期虽受到各方面因素约束，美联储降息扩表仍有利于全球流动性。 u 供应：市场预计2026年粗钢产量进一步压减1.5%–2%，政策导向"支持先进、倒逼落后" ，电炉钢、氢冶金、 高端特钢项目享受差别化减量置换支持。行业反内卷将以减碳提质、绿色转型等形式进行约束 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the Shanghai tin price fluctuated widely from January to October and reached a three - and - a - half - year high at the end of the year, with an annual increase of about 30%. The year - end rally was driven by the triple factors of supply contraction, loose macro - expectations, and the expected explosion of emerging demand. The global tin supply is tight, while the demand in the new energy and semiconductor industries is growing. The price of tin futures is expected to maintain an upward trend in the long term, with support levels around 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton [7]. - The global demand growth rate is expected to be around 3%. The profit will remain low due to tight supply at the mine end and weak processing fees. The LME and SHFE inventories showed a downward trend throughout the year [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Annual Viewpoint and Strategy - **Market**: The Shanghai tin price fluctuated widely from January to October and hit a three - and - a - half - year high at the end of the year, up about 30% year - on - year. The year - end rally was driven by supply contraction, loose macro - expectations, and the expected explosion of emerging demand. In the early part of the year, the price fluctuated widely due to supply disruptions and repeated trade disputes. In the second half of the year, the resumption of tin ore production in the Wa State of Myanmar was significantly slower than expected, and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining and the armed conflict in the Bisie tin mine in the DRC further exacerbated the supply shortage. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December soared to 89.2%, and the semiconductor industry's prosperity continued to recover [7]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the cumulative output of refined tin was 143,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25%. It is predicted that the global refined tin output in 2025 will be about 373,000 tons, only a 1.36% increase from 368,000 tons in 2024, with the growth rate significantly lower than the demand growth rate [7]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative solar energy production was 688.403 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 11.6%; the cumulative integrated circuit production was 386.6 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%; the cumulative automobile production in China was 27.325 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The domestic economy is resilient, and policies continue to support emerging industries. The prosperity of the new energy and semiconductor industries continues to improve. The global demand growth rate is expected to be around 3% [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The supply at the mine end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low [7]. - **Inventory**: The LME and SHFE inventories showed a downward trend throughout the year [7]. - **Outlook**: Photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and the semiconductor industry will support marginal demand in the long term. Mine - end disruptions occur from time to time, disturbing the supply of tin, and the futures price shows high elasticity [7]. - **Strategy**: Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy remains resilient, and the prosperity of the semiconductor and automobile industries generally maintains an upward trend. There are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas, and the mine end is subject to repeated disruptions. In operation, the long - term upward trend logic remains unchanged, with reference support levels around 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton. Later, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the export speed of Indonesia, and the verification of consumption data [7]. Macroeconomic Situation - **GDP**: China's full - year growth target in 2025 is about 5%, and it is expected to be around 4.6% in the fourth quarter. The annualized quarterly growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 3.9%, mainly supported by consumption and AI - related investments. The market generally expects the full - year actual GDP growth rate to be in the range of 2.0% - 2.6% [13]. - **PMI**: In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, remaining below the boom - bust line for eight consecutive months with a slight month - on - month recovery. The US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.6, remaining in the contraction range for 14 consecutive months [17]. - **Monetary Policy**: After the 1 - year and over - 5 - year LPRs were cut by 10 basis points on May 20, 2025, the LPRs have remained unchanged for 6 consecutive months (1 - year LPR: 3.00%; over - 5 - year LPR: 3.50%). China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. On December 10, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% - 3.75% [21]. Technical Analysis Before November, the price fluctuated widely and then broke through. Overall, it showed a bullish trend [29]. Industry Chain and Spot - Futures Market - **Spot - Futures Market**: In 2025, the Shanghai tin price fluctuated widely from January to October and reached a three - and - a - half - year high at the end of the year, up about 30% year - on - year. The year - end rally was driven by the triple factors of supply contraction, loose macro - expectations, and the expected explosion of emerging demand. The basis remained basically stable [40]. Inventory - As of December 5, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 6,683 tons, showing a downward trend throughout the year; the LME total inventory was 3,075 tons, also showing a downward trend throughout the year. The refined tin social inventory was 8,653 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase [49][53]. Cost and Profit As of December 5, 2025, the processing fee for refined tin ore in Yunnan was 11,000 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi it was 7,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees continued to be weak [59]. Supply - **Production**: In October 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,618 tons, returning to normal supply. From January to October, the cumulative output was 143,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25%. The domestic tin ore output in September was 6,263.28 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease. From January to October, the cumulative output was 56,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [66]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In October 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 67.05%, returning to normal [71]. - **Overseas Mines**: The tin ore production of PT Timah in Indonesia decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, and the annual output and export were at a near - four - year low. The Bisie tin mine in the DRC was disturbed in March and November. The resumption of tin ore production in the Wa State of Myanmar was slow, and Yunnan Tin Group in China carried out maintenance [74]. Demand - **Automobile and Electronics**: In October 2025, China's automobile production was 3.279 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 27.325 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The production of electronic computers in October was 2.5633 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 28.7502 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. In the first 10 months of 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 13.015 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in October and November exceeded 50% and 60% respectively [79]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In November 2025, China's PVC production was 2.1281 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 22.3238 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.38%. In October, the production of mobile electronic communications was 14.2735 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 125.1342 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. In October 2025, the production of air conditioners was 1.4204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 23.0344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The refrigerator production in October was 878,800 units, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 8.9959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In October 2025, the production of washing machines was 1.1035 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 10.1078 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The production of color televisions in October was 1.804 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 16.6176 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In October 2025, the production of solar cells was 6.7938 million kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 688.403 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 11.6%. The production of integrated circuits in October was 41.77 million units, a year - on - year increase of 17.7%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 386.6 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% [85][90][94][100]. Import and Export In October 2025, China imported 11,600 tons of tin ore, 526 tons of tin ingots, and exported 1,480 tons of refined tin. In the first 10 months of 2025, China imported a total of 262,000 tons of tin concentrate in physical quantity, equivalent to 43,000 tons of metal, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The cumulative net export of refined tin from January to October was 1,546 tons [106]. Tin Balance Sheet The global tin supply is expected to be 359,500 tons in 2025E and 379,700 tons in 2026E, while the global demand is expected to be 380,000 tons in 2025E and 390,200 tons in 2026E, with supply - demand gaps of 20,500 tons and 10,500 tons respectively [107].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货玻璃纯碱年报 纯碱产能延续扩张，玻璃有望加速出清 20251215 1 观点及策略 2 行情回顾 3 国外经济 4 国内经济 5 基本面分析 6 技术面分析 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 孙伟涛 0769-222110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 玻璃观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 观点及策略 纯碱观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 2026年纯碱市场将延续供需宽松格局，新增产能释放压力与存量产能调整并存。远兴能源二期天然碱项 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has started an interest - rate cut cycle. Although it may indirectly affect pig prices, the domestic pig price is mainly determined by the domestic supply - demand relationship. The current pig market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is in a low - level shock. The short - term price is under pressure, and it is expected that the pig price will pick up in the fourth quarter of 2026 [8]. - The domestic economic situation is generally stable but with insufficient domestic demand. The core contradiction in the domestic pig market is over - capacity and weak demand. The pig price has fallen below the cost line, and the production capacity reduction progress is slow. The industry is in a key game period between short - term price pressure and long - term production capacity clearance [13]. - The government has introduced a series of policies to regulate the pig industry, including reducing the number of sows, controlling secondary fattening, and limiting the slaughter weight, aiming to balance the supply and demand of the pig market [18][20]. - In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of the pig market remains weak, and the pig price lacks upward driving force. The futures market is also in a weak state. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [26]. 3. Summary According to the Directory International Situation - The global economic growth is slowing down. The IMF predicts that the global GDP growth in 2025 is 3.2% (0.2 percentage points higher than that in July), and it may further slow down to 3.1% in 2026. The Fed has started an interest - rate cut cycle, which may indirectly affect pig prices through inflation expectations [8]. - The global pig production has decreased for three consecutive years. In the 2025/2026 period, it decreased by 0.26% year - on - year, and the year - end inventory was about 759.3 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 2.42%. The global pork trade is relatively stable, but the share has shifted, and emerging supply countries have risen [10]. - In major producing countries, the EU has high prices and reduced competitiveness; the US has raised export prices to Mexico; Brazil has obvious cost advantages and increased exports to China [10]. Domestic Situation - China's economic situation is generally stable, but domestic demand is insufficient. The GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.2%, and it is expected to be about 5.0% for the whole year [13]. - Pork has a significant impact on CPI. As the production capacity is gradually cleared, the pig price may stabilize and rise, and the drag on CPI will weaken [13]. - The core contradiction in the domestic pig market is over - capacity and weak demand. The pig price has fallen below the cost line, and the production capacity reduction progress is slow. It is expected that the pig price will pick up in the fourth quarter of 2026 [13]. Macro Policy - In 2025, relevant departments issued a series of policies to regulate the pig industry, including reducing the number of sows, controlling secondary fattening, and limiting the slaughter weight [18]. - The core policy of current production capacity regulation includes adjusting the target number of sows from 4.1 million to 3.9 million, setting a "double 100,000 - head" task for leading enterprises, and implementing provincial - level production capacity adjustment [20]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals and Annual Viewpoint Strategy Fundamental Viewpoint - The number of sows capable of reproduction is the core indicator of pig production capacity. As of October 2025, the number of sows capable of reproduction was 39.9 million, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease, and it has reached the lowest point of the previous cycle. However, the production capacity reduction cycle is being lengthened due to the improvement of production efficiency [23]. - In 2025, the spot price of pigs started high and then declined, reaching a new low. The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the pig price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [23][35]. Strategy Viewpoint and Outlook - The industry is in a key game period between short - term price pressure and long - term production capacity clearance. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to reverse in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level, with a reference range of 11,000 - 12,000. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [26]. Technical Analysis - The LH2603 contract showed a clear downward trend in late September. The MACD had a death cross below the zero - axis, and the KDJ was oversold multiple times. Although there may be a short - term oversold rebound, the medium - term downward trend is difficult to change [137]. - The support level is 11,000 - 11,080, and the resistance level is 11,500 - 12,000 [137].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货碳酸锂年报 明年一季度需求透支后回暖 20251215 作者：陈小国 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 2 产业链简图 3 产业国际形势 4 产业国内形势 1 年度观点 5 产业链政策 10 技术分析 6 供应 7 需求 8 库存 9 成本利润 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点 2025年度行情回顾 图：收盘价（元/吨）及持仓量、成交量（手） 春节前盘面小幅上 涨主要因为需求表 现超预期，以旧换 新政策延续，市场 情绪乐观 春节后，枧下窝矿区复产，需求回 归平淡，下游新能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term upward trend of stock index remains unchanged, but the growth rate may slow down. The core driving force for the mid - term rise of the stock index is the confirmation of the performance bottom and the profit repair. The significant entry of incremental funds and favorable policies also contribute to the market's upward movement. With the introduction of year - end favorable policies and the stimulation of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the stock index may enter a cross - year layout market from December to January, and the spring market is worth looking forward to. It is recommended to focus on the CSI 500, SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices and buy call options [14]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Annual Viewpoint and Strategy - **Market Review**: In 2025, the market first fluctuated and adjusted, then rose significantly and exceeded the previous year's high, showing an overall upward trend. All four major indices rose, with small and medium - cap stock indices leading the gains. In terms of style indices, growth and cyclical indices had the largest increases, with the former rising over 35%. The stable - style index hardly rose, and the financial and consumer - style indices had relatively low increases. In the Shenwan industry, most industries rose, but some declined. TMT and cyclical sectors such as communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and comprehensive led the gains, with the first two having annual increases of over or close to 80%. Industries with lower increases included real estate, commercial trade, public utilities, building decoration, and banking. Declining industries were food and beverage, coal, and transportation [9]. - **Economic Situation**: In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of sub - items, both supply and demand in the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in November, with new export orders rebounding by 1.7%, which was related to the easing of Sino - US tariffs. Factory prices and raw material purchase prices rebounded after two months of decline [9]. - **Policy Situation**: The Political Bureau set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize and boost the capital market. The State Council issued the new Nine - Article Guidelines to strengthen investor returns. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools. The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually [9]. - **Performance Situation**: A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter. After the implementation of reciprocal relations with the US in April, which increased by 30%, performance declined in the second quarter and showed fluctuations. Performance continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter, and the performance of the four major indices rebounded again in Q3 2025 [9]. 2. Index and Industry Trend Review - The market in 2025 first fluctuated and adjusted, then rose significantly and exceeded the previous year's high, showing an overall upward trend. All four major indices rose, with small and medium - cap stock indices leading the gains. In terms of style indices, growth and cyclical indices had the largest increases, with the former rising over 35%. The stable - style index hardly rose, and the financial and consumer - style indices had relatively low increases. In the Shenwan industry, most industries rose, but some declined. TMT and cyclical sectors such as communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and comprehensive led the gains, with the first two having annual increases of over or close to 80%. Industries with lower increases included real estate, commercial trade, public utilities, building decoration, and banking. Declining industries were food and beverage, coal, and transportation [20][26]. 3. Main Contracts and Basis Trends - The four major indices fluctuated and rebounded, exceeding the previous year's high. Except during quarterly contract roll - overs, the basis was at a reasonable level. In terms of arbitrage among main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH first adjusted and then rebounded, showing an overall upward trend; IH/IF first rose and then fell sharply, with significant fluctuations; IM/IF and IM/IH showed wide - range fluctuations; IM/IC first fluctuated repeatedly and then declined [32][36]. 4. Economic Policy - **Economic Situation** - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of sub - items, both supply and demand in the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in November, with new export orders rebounding by 1.7%, which was related to the easing of Sino - US tariffs. Factory prices and raw material purchase prices rebounded after two months of decline [42]. - Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle (by 1 to 12 months, with an average of about half a year). PPI bottomed out and rebounded in June 2023, weakened after two months, and since March 2024, the decline has been continuously narrowing. From July 2024, the decline of PPI expanded again, and since November 2024, it has been narrowing until it expanded for five consecutive months until March 2025. Since August 2025, the decline has been narrowing, and currently it remains weak. In October 2025, industrial enterprise revenues fell to 1.8%, inventory continued to rise to 3.7%, demand declined, and there was passive inventory replenishment [45]. - China's social financing scale in November 2025 was 248.85 billion yuan, an increase of 15.28 billion yuan compared with 233.57 billion yuan in the same period last year. New RMB loans were 40.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.7 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a 20.63 - billion - yuan decrease in household loans, a decrease of 47.63 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Short - term household loans decreased by 3.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.88 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, and medium - and long - term household loans increased by 1 billion yuan, a decrease of 29 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Government bonds were 120.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6 billion yuan compared with the same period last year [48]. - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling since reaching a high of 12.94% in May 2023 after starting to stabilize and rebound from 10.21% in November 2022. As of November 2025, it has fallen for 30 consecutive months to 5.89% and continues to decline [7][53]. - **Policy Situation** - **New Nine - Article Guidelines**: In April 2024, the "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision, Preventing Risks, and Promoting the High - Quality Development of the Capital Market" (New Nine - Article Guidelines) were issued. It tightened the "entry threshold" and smoothed the "exit channel" by raising the listing standards for each sector and accelerating the clearance of inferior enterprises through stricter delisting indicators. It also strengthened investor returns by strengthening the supervision of cash dividends of listed companies and restricting major shareholders' share - reduction for companies that have not paid dividends for many years or have a low dividend ratio [55][58]. - **Implementation Plan for Promoting the Entry of Medium - and Long - Term Funds into the Market**: It aims to increase the actual investment ratio. For public funds, it is required that the market value of A - shares held by public funds should increase by at least 10% annually in the next three years. For commercial insurance funds, large - state - owned insurance companies are expected to invest 30% of their newly - added premiums in A - shares annually starting from 2025, which means adding at least several hundred billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market each year. The second - batch pilot project of long - term stock investment by insurance funds will be implemented in the first half of 2025, with a scale of no less than 10 billion yuan, and the scale will be gradually expanded. It also extends the assessment period. By implementing a long - cycle assessment, it can effectively smooth the impact of short - term market fluctuations on performance and improve the stability of medium - and long - term funds' investment behavior [61]. - **Political Bureau's Policy Orientation**: The Political Bureau meeting pointed out that efforts should be made to boost the capital market, guide medium - and long - term funds to enter the market, and remove obstacles for funds such as social security, insurance, and wealth management to enter the market. It also emphasized increasing the counter - cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies, ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures, and doing a good job in the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level. It proposed to issue and use ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds, reduce the deposit reserve ratio, and implement significant interest rate cuts. It also aimed to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, control the increment of commercial housing construction, optimize the stock, and improve the quality [62]. - **Central Bank's New Monetary Policy Tools**: The central bank created a structural monetary policy tool to support the capital market for the first time. One is the swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, which allows eligible institutions to use their bonds, stock ETFs, and SSE 300 constituent stocks as collateral to exchange for high - liquidity assets such as treasury bonds and central bank bills from the central bank. The initial scale of the swap facility operation is 500 billion yuan. The central bank also created a re - loan for stock repurchase and increase, guiding commercial banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders for stock repurchase and increase. The initial scale is 300 billion yuan [63]. - **Debt Resolution Measures**: In November 2024, the National People's Congress Standing Committee announced a large - scale debt resolution measure. The total debt resolution scale mainly includes three parts: 6 trillion yuan of local debt limits, all arranged as special debt limits, approved at once and implemented over three years; starting from 2024, 800 billion yuan will be allocated from new local special bonds for five consecutive years to replenish government fund financial resources, with a cumulative replacement of 4 trillion yuan of implicit debt; and 2 trillion yuan of implicit debt from shantytown reconstruction due after 2029 will be repaid according to the original contract. The first two parts will directly increase 10 trillion yuan of local debt resolution funds [64]. - **Accelerating the Building of First - Class Investment Banks and Investment Institutions**: At the Eighth Member Congress of the Securities Association of China, it was proposed that securities companies should shift from price competition to value competition. Appropriate "relaxation" measures will be taken for high - quality institutions to optimize risk - control indicators, expand capital space and leverage limits, and improve capital utilization efficiency. Differentiated supervision will be explored for small - and medium - sized securities companies and foreign - funded securities companies in terms of classification evaluation and business access to promote their characteristic development. Strict supervision will be carried out for a small number of problematic securities companies [65]. - **14th Five - Year Plan**: The 14th Five - Year Plan is a crucial period that connects the past and the future, with multiple strategic goals (such as carbon peaking and reform) to be achieved. A multi - polar trade system is gradually taking shape, and China's voice in global economic and trade fields is expected to further increase. Sino - US competition remains the core variable affecting the global political and economic landscape, and it is becoming "normalized" and "complicated". The reconstruction of the global supply chain has entered the second half, with geopolitics and strategic security as the main lines. China will focus on developing new - quality productive forces and upgrading industries, promoting anti - involution and building a unified national market, and expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption [68]. - **US Mid - term Elections**: In 2026, the US mid - term elections will be held. The schedule includes the primary elections in August 2026 and the main election period from September to November, with November 3rd as the final voting date. The fiscal bill requires that the Trump administration is prohibited from laying off federal government employees before January 30th, which is expected to ease the situation of significant employment reduction. It is expected that fiscal support will continue during the mid - term elections [71]. 5. Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - The core factor affecting the long - term trend of the stock index is the performance of listed companies. Since the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies in the third quarter of last year, the policy effects have gradually been transmitted to the real economy. The first - quarter report of 2025 showed that the performance of A - share listed companies had initially shown signs of stabilization, and the profit bottom was likely to have been confirmed. Although affected by external factors such as "reciprocal tariffs" in the second quarter, performance fluctuated, the third - quarter report data confirmed that corporate profits had returned to an upward channel. The continuous rebound of performance in Q3 2025 strengthened the market's confidence in the start of the profit cycle, providing strong internal impetus for the mid - term rise of the stock index [77][82]. 6. Valuation - The valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is 16.2398, with an upper - limit value of 15.64, and it is at the 83.45th percentile since 2010, indicating a relatively high valuation level since 2010. However, as performance rises, the valuation will decline. The valuation of the ChiNext Index is relatively low [100][102]. 7. Interest Rates - Interest rates are in a downward channel. According to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting forecast, from 2025 to 2028, variables such as real GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation are expected to show certain trends, and the federal funds rate is also expected to decline [88]. 8. Capital Flows - **Overall Capital Inflow**: In 2025, the A - share market is expected to have a capital inflow (including scale growth) of 4.3505 trillion yuan, which is not much different from the increase in non - bank deposits and bank wealth - management scale. Excluding the scale - growth factor, the A - share market is expected to have a net capital inflow of 1.8311 trillion yuan in 2025 (with an expected net inflow of 300 billion yuan from retail investors in the third quarter) [105]. - **Margin Trading and Short Selling**: In 2024, the net inflow of margin trading and short - selling funds was 27.48 billion yuan. As of December 14, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 62.96 billion yuan, indicating active leverage funds [12][109]. - **Private Securities Investment Funds**: The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.7946 trillion yuan this year, with a significant increase of 1.040028 trillion yuan in October. The current total scale is 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly - registered scale this year is 38.6 billion yuan, with registration scales of 7.92 billion yuan in July, 4.28 billion yuan in August, 3.68 billion yuan in September, and 4.29 billion yuan in October [12][113]. - **Insurance Funds**: In the third quarter of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 55.24 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 18.00%, while the SSE 300 Index rose by 17.90% during the same period. In the first three quarters of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 119.3 billion yuan, and after excluding the scale - growth factor, it increased by 75.84 billion yuan. The proportion of stock and fund investment by insurance funds in the total insurance fund balance continued to rise to 14.93% [115][116]. - **Newly - Established Funds**: As of September 30, 2025, the newly - established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion yuan, with 137 billion yuan in the third quarter; the newly - established share of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion yuan, with 53 billion yuan in the third quarter. In 2025, index funds had a net inflow of 104.9 billion yuan, while active equity funds had a net outflow of 444.9 billion yuan, and equity funds had a net outflow of 340 billion yuan [126][130]. - **Other Capital Flows**: In October 2025, the deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 1.8574 trillion yuan again, and the total increase in deposits of non - bank financial institutions this year was 6.6688 trillion yuan. Overall, funds are flowing from the banking system to non - bank channels such as the capital market and wealth - management products. In terms of secondary - market shareholder share - reduction, important shareholders in the A - share market had a net share - reduction of 307.3 billion yuan in 2025. The IPO financing in 2023 was 356.5 billion

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the nickel price showed a weak and volatile trend with a continuously downward - shifting center of gravity. The oversupply fundamentals suppressed the price throughout the year, and the year - end price was in the lowest range of the past five years. In 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and policy changes will affect the bottom - probing rhythm [8][44]. - The supply pattern has changed from tight to loose. Indonesia has become the global nickel supply center. In 2025, the approved nickel ore mining quota in Indonesia reached 364 million wet tons, and the actual supply could reach 300 million wet tons, exceeding the domestic demand of 260 million wet tons. The supply of nickel ore and intermediates increased significantly, and the overall supply continued to expand [8]. - The demand in 2025 was characterized by "dominated by existing volume and limited in incremental volume". The demand in the stainless - steel, nickel - alloy, and battery fields had different performance, but overall growth was limited [8]. - In 2025, the LME nickel inventory, SHFE inventory, and refined nickel social inventory were all at historical highs [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Annual Viewpoint and Strategy - **Market Review**: In 2025, the nickel price was weak and volatile. It rose in Q1 due to supply disruptions, dropped sharply in April because of tariff shocks, and declined rapidly in the second half of the year as the supply increased. It maintained a low - level shock after a small recovery at the end of the year [8][44]. - **Supply**: The supply of nickel ore and intermediates increased significantly. The domestic refined nickel production from January to November 2025 was 369,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%. The nickel pig iron production in Indonesia increased significantly, and the overall supply continued to expand [8]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic stainless - steel production was about 32 million tons, corresponding to a nickel consumption of about 1.95 million tons of metal. The nickel demand in the nickel - alloy field increased steadily, and the domestic battery - related nickel demand was about 430,000 tons of metal [8]. - **Inventory**: The LME nickel inventory, SHFE inventory, and refined nickel social inventory were at historical highs in 2025 [8]. - **Outlook**: In 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and policy changes will affect the bottom - probing rhythm. - **Strategy**: Seize the rhythm and conduct sell - hedging when the price is high. Later, pay attention to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel production, and Indonesian nickel exports [8]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - **GDP**: China's GDP growth target in 2025 was about 5%, and it was expected to be around 4.6% in Q4. The annualized quarterly growth rate of the US GDP in Q3 2025 was 3.9%, and the market expected the full - year growth rate to be between 2.0% and 2.6% [13]. - **PMI**: In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, remaining below the boom - bust line for eight consecutive months with a slight month - on - month increase. The US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.6, remaining in the contraction range for 14 consecutive months [17]. - **Monetary Policy**: After the 1 - year and over - 5 - year LPR were cut by 10 basis points on May 20, 2025, they remained unchanged for six consecutive months. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%. China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [21]. 3.3 Industrial Policy - **RKAB Policy**: In 2026, the RKAB approval cycle in Indonesia will be adjusted from three years to one year. The new policy aims to deal with the impact of falling mineral and coal prices on national fiscal revenue. It may support the price and even drive it upward [26]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - In 2025, the nickel price maintained a weak and volatile trend [29][34]. 3.5 Industrial Chain and Spot - Futures Market - **Industrial Chain Structure**: The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore, wet - process intermediates, nickel pig iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [38]. - **Spot - Futures Market**: In 2025, the nickel price was weak and volatile, and the price spread maintained a low - level shock and was relatively stable overall [44]. 3.6 Supply Side and Intermediates - **Nickel Ore**: From January to October 2025, China's nickel ore imports reached 4.63839 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.53%. The monthly imports fluctuated significantly [52]. - **Nickel Pig Iron**: In 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron production increased significantly, while China's production declined. From January to October 2025, China's nickel pig iron imports were 9.2578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.4% [56][61]. - **Refined Nickel**: From January to November 2025, the domestic refined nickel production was 369,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%. From January to October, the apparent consumption was 323,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40% [65]. - **Nickel Imports and Exports**: From January to October 2025, China's nickel imports were 2.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27%, and exports were 175,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52% [70]. - **Wet - Process Intermediates**: From January to October 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 390,100 tons of nickel metal, a year - on - year increase of 50.6% [77]. - **High - Grade Nickel Matte**: From January to October 2025, Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production was 195,300 tons of nickel metal, a year - on - year decrease of 11.8% due to profit difficulties [82]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: From January to October 2025, China's nickel sulfate production was about 293,600 tons of metal, a year - on - year decrease of about 3.8%, and imports were 211,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.75% [87]. 3.7 Demand Side - **Stainless - Steel Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic stainless - steel production was 33.2428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The apparent consumption was 29.3666 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. Imports decreased, while exports increased slightly [94][99]. - **Cathode Material Demand**: From January to November 2025, China's ternary cathode material production was 843,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 35.5%. The production of new - energy vehicles in the first 10 months of 2025 was 13.015 million, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% [104]. 3.8 Inventory Side - As of December 2025, the refined nickel social inventory, LME inventory, and SHFE inventory were all at historical highs [115][119].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货黄金年报 黄金的中长期上涨逻辑仍在 20251215 段福林 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F3048935 交易咨询号：Z0015600 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 1 年度观点及策略 2 最新政策与消息 3 期现市场 4 通胀、利率 5 美国经济 6 黄金供需平衡表 7 汇率 ＆ 美元指数 8 黄金内外价差 9 黄金基差 10 金银油比价 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 通胀：2022年6月CPI数据创新 ...