Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, IF2506 closed at 3846.2 points, up 37.4 points or 0.01% from the previous week; IH2506 closed at 2693.0 points, down 2.2 points or 0.08%; IC2506 closed at 5561.8 points, down 40.0 points or 0.71%; IM2506 closed at 5872.0 points, down 61.8 points or 1.04% [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.50%, both down 10 basis points from the previous period [6] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of May 25, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.53 times, the quantile was 65.1%, and the PB was 1.76 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.55 times, the quantile was 52.55%, and the PB was 1.31 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.9 times, the quantile was 73.9%, and the PB was 1.2 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.04 times, the quantile was 55.49%, and the PB was 2.03 times [8] 4. Other Data - The equity - bond spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas: one is (1/Index static PE) - 10 - year government bond yield; the other is 10 - year government bond yield - Index static dividend yield [17] 5. Core View - The A - share market's oscillation pattern has changed, showing weak characteristics. The market turnover has decreased, and sector rotation is frequent without sustainability. It is expected that the A - share market may shift from oscillation to weak oscillation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes may underperform the SSE 50 and SSE 300 Indexes. Investors are advised to be cautious, closely monitor macroeconomic data, policy trends, and external market fluctuations. They can consider lightly short - selling the CSI 1000 Index with the 5 - day moving average as the stop - loss point or selling small - cap stock indexes and buying large - cap stock indexes for arbitrage [20]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [1][6][43] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2507 of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated between around 20,010 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 20,300 yuan/ton [3][10] - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price fluctuated between 2,430 - 2,497 US dollars/ton [14] 2. Spot Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 20,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,410 yuan/ton, 20,585 yuan/ton, 20,435 yuan/ton, and 20,400 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium of electrolytic aluminum remained at around a premium of 80 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [17] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In March 2025, the alumina supply - demand surplus was 30,000 tons, compared with a supply - demand gap of 110,000 tons in the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years. In March 2025, the cumulative supply - demand surplus of electrolytic aluminum was 277,200 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at an average level compared to the past 5 years [23] - As of April 2025, domestic imports of bauxite were 20,684,045.16 tons, an increase of 4,225,390.6 tons from the previous month [29] 4. Inventory Situation - As of May 23, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 141,289 tons, a decrease of 14,791 tons from the previous week. As of May 22, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 386,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly to 15.99% [33] - As of May 22, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 36,000 tons, in Wuxi was 150,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 15,000 tons, in Foshan was 228,000 tons, in Tianjin was 21,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 56,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 7,000 tons [33] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The US Supreme Court made a ruling on a personnel appointment and removal appeal case of a federal independent agency, hinting that the status of Federal Reserve board members is special and will be specially protected from being dismissed by the president. The US bond yield curve steepened significantly, with the 30 - year Treasury yield breaking through 5%. The Japanese government bond yield continued to rise, and the 40 - year Treasury yield reached a new high. The global alumina supply - demand continued to be in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum market also showed a supply - demand surplus. China's bauxite imports increased rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased rapidly and was at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly [5][42] 6. Future Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [6][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The price of rubber generally continues to be weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires is negative for rubber, while supply has support, terminal demand is fair, and inventory has slightly decreased [8][87] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 14,530 to 15,115 yuan/ton, with a slight overall decline. As of May 23, 2025, it closed at 14,535 yuan/ton, down 370 points or 2.48% for the week [6][12] 3.1.2 Spot Price - As of May 23, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 20,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,350 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week [18][22] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded. As of May 23, 2025, the basis was 45 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton wider than last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared to last week [27][31] 3.2 Important Market Information - The US manufacturing PMI in May rose to a three - month high of 52.3, and the service PMI reached a two - month high. The new order growth rate was the fastest in more than a year, but manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month, and the employment index declined. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates, and his tax - cut bill passed the House and will go to the Senate. The bill plans to cut taxes by more than 4 trillion US dollars in the next decade, cut at least 1.5 trillion US dollars in spending, and raise the US debt ceiling by 4 trillion US dollars. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts [32] - The Australian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI improved slightly in May, but the service PMI fell sharply. The market increased bets on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates twice this year. The UK's CPI rose in April, and the market reduced bets on the Bank of England to cut interest rates. The Indonesian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% [33][35] - China's economy grew steadily in April. The industrial added value, service production index, and social consumer goods retail all increased year - on - year. The LPR was lowered, and banks cut deposit interest rates. The prices of new houses in first - and second - tier cities were flat in April, and those in third - tier cities declined slightly. China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year in April, and the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in May are expected to increase [36][37] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in Indonesia's main rubber - producing areas increased slightly from the previous month, while that in Vietnam decreased slightly. The production in Malaysia and India decreased significantly, and that in Thailand decreased sharply. China's main producing areas started tapping gradually. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [44] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%, and the cumulative production was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [48][51][54] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - As of May 22, 2025, the开工 rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.22%, down 0.11% from last week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.96%, down 0.13% from last week [57] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88%. The monthly sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 87,667 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [61][64][69] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [72][78] 3.5 Inventory - side Situation - As of May 23, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,270 tons, 230 tons less than last week. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons or 0.96%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons or 0.73% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.34% to 92,100 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.25% to 522,100 tons [85] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber main producing areas are gradually starting to tap. Recently, rainfall has affected tapping work, leading to firm raw material prices and cost support for rubber prices. In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year [86] - Demand: Last week, the开工 rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprises slightly declined. Finished product inventories continued to accumulate and were at a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, China's automobile production and sales increased slightly year - on - year in April but decreased slightly month - on - month. The heavy - duty truck sales increased year - on - year in April but decreased month - on - month, and the cumulative sales from January to April decreased slightly year - on - year. The trade - in policy boosted terminal consumption. China's automobile and rubber tire exports increased in 2025 [86] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [86] 3.7后市展望 - The price of rubber generally continues to be weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in main producing areas, tapping conditions at home and abroad, rubber import situation, demand changes, and inventory changes [8][87] 3.8 Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate weakly this week. It is recommended to wait and see for now. Aggressive investors can consider going long lightly on dips, paying attention to the support around the 14,000 integer mark [10][88]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol had limited improvement, and the futures rebounded due to macro - level support. This week, the fundamentals remain unchanged, with supply likely to decrease, demand expected to be weak, and port inventory likely to rise while enterprise inventory may fall. The improvement in the macro - level due to the easing of Sino - US tariffs may be the main driver for methanol, and a long - position operation can be considered [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures oscillated and rebounded. The weighted methanol closed at 2,298 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 2.64% from the previous week. In the spot market, the overall domestic methanol market rose, but the spot basis in the coastal market declined rapidly, and the atmosphere in the inland market weakened. As of May 19, the methanol prices in different regions showed different trends, with the price in Jiangsu Taicang rising 0.7% to 2,440 yuan/ton, that in Guangdong falling 0.79% to 2,399 yuan/ton, that in Ordos North Line dropping 1.54% to 2,116 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Jining decreasing 3.06% to 2,316 yuan/ton [11] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, domestic methanol production decreased. The number of maintenance cases exceeded restarts, with the output at 1,991,055 tons, a decrease of 66,720 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate at 8.47%, a 4.01% drop [14] - **Downstream Industry**: The olefin industry's operation rate remained low. As of May 15, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 59.78%, up 0.70 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, chlorides, and formaldehyde showed different trends [16][17] - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of May 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 335,800 tons, up 31,900 tons from the previous period, a 10.48% increase, and the order backlog was 273,600 tons, up 35,800 tons, a 15.06% increase. The inventory and order backlog in different regions showed different changes [18] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 483,900 tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons from the previous period, a 13.88% drop. The inventory in different regions showed different trends [26] - **Profit**: Last week, the average profit of domestic methanol samples showed mixed trends. The profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia increased by 18.41% to 244.40 yuan/ton, while the profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei decreased by 22.13% to 316.67 yuan/ton [29] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of maintenance cases will still exceed restarts. It is expected that China's methanol output will be about 1.9706 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.44%, a decrease from last week [31] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry's operation rate will remain low. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, formaldehyde, and chlorides are expected to show different trends [32][33] - **Enterprise Inventory**: It is expected that the enterprise inventory will slightly decrease to 303,200 tons [34] - **Port Inventory**: It is expected that the port methanol inventory will increase this week [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the rebar 2510 contract rose 1.52%. Although the molten iron output decreased slightly, the supply remained at a high level, while the demand faced seasonal decline pressure. Driven by the macro - factors, steel prices rebounded slightly last week. Recently, steel prices are mainly stable and volatile, and there may still be a small rebound space [4][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [9]. Important Market Information - The Chinese side believes that the US practice of imposing 232 tariffs on imported automobiles, steel, aluminum and launching a 232 investigation on imported drugs is a typical act of unilateralism and protectionism, which not only damages the rights and interests of other countries and undermines the multilateral trading system based on rules, but also does no good to the development of its own industries. The Chinese side urges the US to stop the 232 tariff measures as soon as possible [14]. Supply - side Situation - According to Mysteel data, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 84.15%, a decrease of 0.47% month - on - month and an increase of 2.65% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a decrease of 0.33% month - on - month and an increase of 3.19% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 7.36% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 244.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons month - on - month. The overall operating rate of 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan last week was 55.93%, an increase of 13.56% month - on - month, and the section steel capacity utilization rate was 51.68%, an increase of 3.86% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines last week was 89.3%, a decrease of 0.7% month - on - month. The daily average output of raw coal was 200.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons month - on - month, and the raw coal inventory was 606.8 million tons, an increase of 27.0 million tons month - on - month [4][33]. Demand - side Situation - In April 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51.9, a decrease of 1.5% month - on - month; the current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing manager index of Lange Steel was 48.8, a decrease of 3.8% month - on - month [22]. Inventory - side Situation No specific inventory data was provided in the content other than the inventory - related section title. Fundamental Analysis - According to the data of the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) in Australia, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland decreased to 46.6938 billion tons in April 2025 from 50.6610 billion tons in March; the spodumene concentrate exports decreased to 109,789 tons from 143,640 tons in March. Among them, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland to China in April were 41.1047 billion tons, compared with 41.1912 billion tons in March [33]. 后市展望 - Last week, the molten iron output decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a high level, while the demand faced seasonal decline pressure. Driven by the macro - factors, steel prices rebounded slightly last week. Recently, steel prices are mainly stable and volatile, and there may still be a small rebound space [4][34]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to treat the market as stable, volatile and rebounding [5][35].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The MPOB report on palm oil was bearish, while the USDA report was bullish. Due to changes in the US renewable fuel policy, the demand for biodiesel changed, causing significant fluctuations in US soybean oil. With the fast planting progress of US soybeans and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans, the domestic supply of soybean oil will gradually shift from tight to loose. During the palm oil production season, the supply - demand of palm oil is expected to become marginally looser. Recently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory remains high with sufficient supply. As the China - US trade negotiation makes substantial progress, the market's expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations has increased, which may be bearish for the domestic rapeseed market. Recently, market sentiment has been volatile, and it is highly likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate widely driven by trade policies, overseas biodiesel policies, and the supply of oilseeds [9][31][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,330 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [12]. 2. Other Data - As of May 9, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 0.50 million tons to 70.60 million tons. On May 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 0.80 million tons to 32.40 million tons [16]. - As of May 15, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,542,630 tons [19]. - As of May 15, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 444 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20][21]. - As of May 15, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 34 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [23]. 3. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 0.33% to close at 7,754 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 1.24% to close at 7,984 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 0.83% to close at 9,277 yuan/ton [29]. - According to the MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production in April was 1.686 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52%, higher than Reuters' expectation of 1.62 million tons; exports were 1.102 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62%, in line with Reuters' expectation of 1.1 million tons; inventory was 1.865 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.37%, higher than Reuters' expectation of 1.79 million tons. Malaysian palm oil rose 0.26% [29]. - According to the USDA's May supply - demand report, the US soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the soybean output is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The US soybean crushing volume in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the ending inventory of soybeans is expected to be 295 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The inventory - to - use ratio is estimated to be 6.7%, lower than 8.0% in the 2024/25 season, indicating a tightening supply. The report predicts that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season will be 427 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons, mainly contributed by the increase in Brazil's soybean output; imports will be 186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; crushing volume will be 366 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3 million tons; exports will be 188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons. The global ending inventory of soybeans is 124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons. US soybeans fell 0.12% this week [30].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [5][38]. 3) Summary According to the Table of Contents a. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2506 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,835 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [2][9]. - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts fluctuated between 1,963 - 2,004 US dollars/ton [12]. b. Spot Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market was 16,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,780 yuan/ton, 16,770 yuan/ton, and 16,770 yuan/ton respectively. The 1 lead premium/discount was around a discount of - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. c. Supply and Demand Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of March 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 73.7 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. In March 2025, China imported 116.03 thousand tons of lead concentrates, an increase of 14.52 thousand tons from the previous month (a 14.3% increase) and an increase of 48.24 thousand tons from the same period last year (a 71.2% increase) [21]. d. Inventory Situation - As of May 16, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 248,850 tons, a decrease of 1,825 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 49.85% [30]. e. Fundamental Analysis - After the implementation of the mutual tariff reduction between China and the United States, the impact of tariff policy adjustments on lead prices is gradually weakening. The lead spot price has slightly rebounded, and the lead discount has widened. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering from the bottom but remains at a low level. Lead production continues to grow, and the operating rate of lead enterprises is gradually rising. The production of electric bicycles continues to grow, and the demand for lead - acid batteries may increase. The Shanghai lead inventory has increased significantly, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years. The LME lead inventory continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [4][37]. f. Outlook for the Future - The lead price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [5][38].

研究报告 橡胶周报 多空交织趋势不明，胶价维持区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 19 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14555-15310 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格冲高回落，维持区间震荡，总体小幅 上涨。 截至 2025 年 5 月 16 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14905 元/吨，当周上涨 285 点，涨幅 1.95%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格冲高回落，维持低位 震荡，总体小幅上涨。 展望后市，从宏观面来看，上周中美两国互相大幅降低关 税水平，市场情绪有所回暖。从基本面来看，天气扰动主产区 割胶工作，成本支撑有所增强。天然橡胶进口增加明显。需求 方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均明显回升，企业出货表现不佳， 成品库存持续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The A - share market is expected to continue its trend of oscillating upward or having a strong oscillation. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust their position allocations, and reasonably control their position levels to seize market opportunities and cope with potential market fluctuations [22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - Last week, IF2505 closed at 3840.2 points, up 88.2 points from the previous week with a decline of 2.35%. IH2505 closed at 2683.6 points, up 56.4 points with a gain of 2.15%. IC2505 closed at 5702.4 points, up 112.2 points with a gain of 2.01%. IM2505 closed at 6056.2 points, up 150.8 points with a gain of 2.55% [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to April decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [5] - In April 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. From January to April, the average PPI and purchase price index for industrial producers decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period of the previous year [8] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of May 10, the PE of the CSI 500 index is 28.8 times, the quantile is 66.27%, and the PB is 1.77 times. The PE of the SSE 300 index is 12.44 times, the quantile is 50.2%, and the PB is 1.3 times. The PE of the SSE 50 index is 10.84 times, the quantile is 70.98%, and the PB is 1.19 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 index is 40.58 times, the quantile is 61.57%, and the PB is 2.05 times [11] 3.4 Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas: Formula 1 (reciprocal of price - earnings ratio): Equity - bond yield spread=(1/Index static price - earnings ratio) - 10 - year treasury bond yield; Formula 2 (dividend yield): Equity - bond yield spread = 10 - year treasury bond yield - Index static dividend yield [19] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - In the previous trading cycle, the A - share market showed an oscillating upward trend. Sino - US trade negotiations were held over the weekend. Next week, attention should be paid to the impact of these negotiations on the market and investment opportunities derived from them [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, maintaining a low - level oscillation. In the short term, rubber prices will continue to be under pressure due to weak demand expectations affected by the trade war and a supply - demand imbalance, but the downside space is limited. The market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas, rubber import, demand changes, and inventory changes [7][84] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber fluctuated between 14,600 - 15,060 yuan/ton. The futures price reached a high and then fell back, maintaining a low - level oscillation with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 9, 2025, the main contract RU2509 closed at 14,620 yuan/ton, up 65 points or 0.45% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of May 9, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,300 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly. As of May 9, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 20 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [27] Important Market Information - The US economic data was relatively strong last week, and the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. In China, the expansion pace of enterprise production and business activities slowed down, and three departments issued a package of financial policies, but the market reaction was mediocre [7][84] - In April, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay. The trade - in policy continued to be promoted, stimulating the continuous strengthening of the auto market [7][84] - The trade deficit in the US in March increased by 14% month - on - month, reaching a record 140.5 billion US dollars. The export of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and beef was severely impacted [33] - The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [33] - The labor productivity in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.8% year - on - year in annualized quarterly terms, and the unit labor cost jumped by 5.7%, the largest increase in a year [33] - The three - department financial policy includes a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy interest rate, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [34] - In April, the CPI in China increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year; the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [35] - The second - hand housing transaction volume in key cities increased year - on - year in April. The auto market continued to strengthen, and the price war pressure was relatively reduced [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly from the previous month; the production in the main producing areas of Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in the main producing areas of Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in the main producing areas of Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China started tapping gradually and the output was increasing. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [42] - As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; the cumulative output was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [46][49] - As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of May 8, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47% from the previous week [55] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; the monthly sales volume was 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97% [59][62] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - duty truck sales volume was 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [67] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [70] - As of March 31, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from the previous week [81] - As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons or 0.12%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the total social inventory of light rubber in China was 530,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [81] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38% [81] Fundamental Analysis - From the supply side, the main natural rubber - producing areas around the world are gradually starting tapping. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China in April 2025 was 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative import volume from January to April was 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The supply side exerts certain pressure on rubber prices [83] - From the demand side, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased significantly last week. The finished product inventory is at a historical high, and the market performance is weak. In the terminal auto market, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China in April increased by 9.4% year - on - year and decreased by 19% month - on - month; the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks from January to April was flat year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay [83] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly, and the inventory level is still high [83]