农产品日报 | 2025-07-03 苹果市场交易清淡，红枣关注产区天气 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 中性。当前库存水平处于低位，价格存在底部支撑，预计短期价格仍表现稳定。 风险 产区天气情况、货源质量问题、销区走货情况 红枣观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7744元/吨，较前一日变动+26元/吨，幅度+0.34%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+456，较前一日变动-26；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1856，较前一日变动-26。 近期市场资讯，苹果现货市场整体交易一般，产区冷库客商询价尚可，成交不多，价格维持稳定。西部产区货源 剩余不多，存货商自行发市场为主，交易不多，早熟果藤木、光果晨阳等上市后价格稳定；山东产区仍以发市场 为主，部分货源价格因质量有小幅松动。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起 步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2. ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 "反内卷"拉动氧化铝价格 铝期货方面：2025-07-02日沪铝主力合约开于20610元/吨，收于20635元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨75元/ 吨，涨幅0.36%，最高价达20725元/吨，最低价达到20600元/吨。全天交易日成交146289手，较上一交易日增 加11655手，全天交易日持仓283729手，较上一交易日增加630手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-30，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.8万吨。截止2025-07-02，LME铝库存356625 吨，较前一交易日增加8000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-02 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3075元/吨，山东价格录得3080元/吨，广西价格录得 3180元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得370美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-07-02氧化铝主力合约开于2948元/吨，收于3071元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨130 元/吨，涨幅4.42%，最高价达到3075元/吨，最低价为2931元/吨。全天交易日成交386359手，较上一交易日增 加93491手，全天交易日持仓275495手，较上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation in China shows mixed signals. In May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, and exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. With the approach of the Politburo meeting in July, there is a possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies. In the US, economic data such as retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and ADP employment are weak, increasing the possibility of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The progress of international trade negotiations among various countries is complex, and the "Big Beautiful" bill's passage in the US House of Representatives needs attention. Macro - inflation trading is heating up, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, gold, and black metals are worthy of attention [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, in May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. The third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be released in July, and the 800 billion yuan "Two - Major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. In June, China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all increased slightly, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. The central bank's net investment in the open market on June 26 reached 305.8 billion yuan, and attention should be paid to the possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies in the July Politburo meeting [1]. International Trade Situation - The deadline for the US to suspend tariffs is approaching. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on multiple countries. The EU is willing to accept the US "benchmark national tax" but seeks industry tax exemptions and quotas. The EU trade negotiation representative will go to the US for talks. The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, and Canada has cancelled the digital service tax. The India - US trade negotiation is deadlocked. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5, and the harmonized CPI increased to 2% [2]. US Economic Data and Policy - The US Senate passed the tax - reform "Big Beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives will vote on it. In May, US retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month. The June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, and the ADP employment decreased by 33,000. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Fed's at least two interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed plans to relax key bank capital regulations, and stable - coin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3]. Macro - inflation Trading - From the 2018 tariff review, tariff - adding events first lead to a decline in trading demand and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the US "Big Beautiful" bill's passage and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. Non - ferrous metal sectors with supply constraints and gold are key areas of concern, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations. In the energy sector, the EU will extend sanctions against Russia, and attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6 [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [5]. Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch of "Two - Major" construction projects in 2025. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on Japan. Powell said that without Trump's tariff plan, the Fed would adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. The US House of Representatives will vote on the Trump tax - legislation draft on July 2. US economic data such as manufacturing PMI and ADP employment are weak. Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire in Gaza. US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels last week [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The high-low sulfur spread continues to rebound, but the driving force on the low-sulfur end remains limited. The market has returned to the fundamental-driven logic. The differentiation pattern between high and low sulfur has significantly converged [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are in a stage of marginal weakening, with the spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread continuously declining. However, summer power generation demand is strong, shipping consumption is relatively stable, and the increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio of some domestic refineries is beneficial for the recovery of import demand [1]. - The short-term supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the market structure is stable. But in the medium term, the demand share of low-sulfur fuel oil will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.44% at 2,960 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.56% at 3,596 yuan/ton [1]. - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the crude oil premium has rapidly declined, and the market has returned to fundamental-driven logic [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil's spread structure is in a stage of marginal weakening, with sufficient supply on the spot side and limited positive drivers. OPEC's production increase will drive up the supply of medium and high-sulfur crude oil and fuel oil. After the ceasefire with Israel, Iran's exports show signs of recovery [1]. - The short-term supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, with insufficient supply of Western arbitrage cargoes and low domestic production in May. But in the medium term, the demand share will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally after the end of the refinery maintenance season [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Cross-variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - Cross-period: Short the FU2509-FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

期货研究报告|纯苯专题 2025-07-03 纯苯下游格局 研究院化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 摘要 华泰期货纯苯上市专题系列之四：纯苯下游格局。分为横向对比分析及纵向自身分 析。 横向对比的分析，第一是纯苯下游苯乙烯、己内酰胺、酚酮、苯胺、己二酸五大品种 的下游需求占比及基础介绍；第二是按照外采纯苯比例加权后的纯苯下游需求占比， 找出对纯苯需求边际影响更大的品种；第三是列出五个品种的年度产能增速，对比 5 个品种的投产周期；第四是分析纯苯需求分地区占比，且各地区下游占比分析，特别 是定价主要集中地的华东的下游需求占比分析，还 ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-07-02 纸货交割结束后，回到累库现实 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存17.70万吨（+0.60万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费166美元/吨（-4美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费149美元/吨（-4美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差79.7美元/吨（+10.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-70元/吨（+0元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差525元/吨（-173元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润168元/吨（-81元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存98800吨（+13800吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存31300吨（-35000吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率80.1%（+1.1%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润-22元/吨（-17元/吨），PS生产利润-422元/吨（+133元/吨），ABS生产利润351元/吨（+134 元/吨）。EPS开工率59.72%（+6.09%），PS开工率57.40%（-1.30%），ABS开工率66.00%（+2.03%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 纯苯方面，韩国后续发往中国压力仍大；国产开工高位回落，下游C ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The absolute price of zinc has declined significantly, and the spot market premium has not improved significantly. The supply is relatively abundant, and the zinc price is weak despite the new low of the US dollar index. The supply pressure remains high, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur. The deviation between the macro - positive and the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back, and attention should be paid to the change of social inventory [3] Summary by Related Content Spot and Futures Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$18.75 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 210 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, and its spot premium rose by 25 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 240 yuan/ton to 22,250 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,210 yuan/ton, and its spot premium increased by 35 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [1] - On July 1, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,255 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 178,683 lots, an increase of 17,759 lots, and the position was 134,433 lots, a decrease of 5,753 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,105 - 22,420 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 117,475 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The supply in June increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the expected output in July is still as high as 590,000 tons. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the finished product inventory of smelters and zinc alloy inventory have increased significantly. The alloy operating rate has started to decline, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur [3] - The TC of the ore end has further increased, the smelting profit has expanded, and the smelting enthusiasm has been further enhanced, so the supply pressure remains [3] - After the absolute price increase, the spot market trading has become more sluggish, and the spot premium has quickly declined [3]

流动性日报 | 2025-07-02 市场流动性概况 2025-07-01，股指板块成交4106.63亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.21%；持仓金额10034.62亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.21%；成交持仓比为40.50%。 国债板块成交3200.69亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.61%；持仓金额8820.22亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.85%；成交 持仓比为36.65%。 基本金属板块成交2443.06亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.17%；持仓金额4165.17亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.71%； 成交持仓比为101.08%。 贵金属板块成交3018.92亿元，较上一交易日变动-29.62%；持仓金额4323.91亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.23%；成 交持仓比为73.66%。 能源化工板块成交3830.54亿元，较上一交易日变动-17.67%；持仓金额3926.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.32%； 成交持仓比为81.19%。 农产品板块成交2502.53亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.80%；持仓金额5479.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.40%；成交 持仓比为41.71%。 黑色建材板块成交210 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - With the approach of the peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has been stimulated by rising prices, showing a "buying on the rise" pattern. The improvement of macro - sentiment and the spill - over of risk sentiment will benefit lead prices. Therefore, for the SHFE lead 2508 contract, it is advisable to conduct long - hedging on dips in the range of 16,800 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On July 1, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.57 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 1, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 31,387 lots, a decrease of 934 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 51,411 lots, an increase of 3 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,220 yuan/ton and a low of 17,090 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,170 yuan/ton, a 0.20% increase from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On July 1, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 1, the LME lead inventory was 270,075 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, conduct long - hedging on dips in the range of 16,800 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at 16,500 yuan/ton [4]

油料日报 | 2025-07-02 花生现货实际交易量不大，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4127.00元/吨，较前日变化-14.00元/吨，幅度-0.34%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+153，较前日变化+14，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周一，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘互有涨跌，呈现近弱远强的趋势，其中基准期约收 高0.3%。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌3.50美分到上涨3.50美分不等，其中7月期约下跌3.50美分，报收1024.25美分/蒲 式耳;8月期约下跌3.50美分，报收1029.75美分/蒲式耳;11月期约上涨2.25美分，报收1027美分/蒲式耳。隔夜美农发 布两份重要报告，种植面积报告及季度库存报告。USDA 将 2025 年美国大豆种植面积调整为 8338 万英亩，低于 3 月的 8349.5 万英亩，也低于分析师约 8365.5 万英亩的平均预估。本次预估的大豆种植面积将较 2024 年的 8705 万英亩减少 4.2%。6 月 1 日的大豆库存总量为 10.08 亿蒲式耳，高于市场预期的 9.8 亿蒲式耳，较去年同期增长 3. ...