Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In August, industrial production improved with the national above - scale industrial added value growing 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month, and 6.2% year - on - year from January to August. The decline of PPI narrowed, and CPI decreased year - on - year but was flat month - on - month. Core CPI increased for four consecutive months. Domestic consumption is expected to continue to recover in Q3 [3]. - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 0.5%, and a month - on - month decline of 0.20% in August. The third - industry investment was dragged down by real estate, but the investment structure continued to optimize [4]. - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 323906 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.6%, and 39668 billion yuan in August, with a year - on - year growth of 3.4%. The consumer market is recovering, but the demand foundation needs to be consolidated. In the real estate market, both investment and sales were under pressure from January to August [5]. Summary by Directory Growth: Steady Uptick - In August, the national above - scale industrial added value grew 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month, and 6.2% year - on - year from January to August. The equipment and high - tech manufacturing industries outperformed the overall level. Some product outputs increased significantly. However, external uncertainties remain [11]. Inflation: Month - on - Month Recovery - In August 2025, the national PPI decreased 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The pressure on energy and raw material supply and demand eased marginally, some external - demand industries improved, and new - quality productivity industries and consumption - upgrade demand supported price increases. However, factors such as weak downstream demand and international input still restrict the full recovery of PPI, which is expected to continue a mild recovery [21]. - In August, CPI decreased 0.4% year - on - year and was flat month - on - month. Core CPI increased 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for four consecutive months. Food prices were the main drag, while non - food prices and service consumption showed positive trends. Domestic consumption is expected to continue to recover in Q3 [45]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to August 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 0.5%, and a month - on - month decline of 0.20% in August. The second - industry investment grew rapidly, while the third - industry investment was dragged down by real estate. Investment growth varied by region. Overall, the investment structure is optimizing, but the real estate market still drags down the overall investment [59]. Production: Continued Growth - From January to August 2025, the national above - scale industrial added value grew 6.2% year - on - year, with a 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month growth in August. The manufacturing industry maintained growth, and high - tech manufacturing outperformed. New kinetic energy products grew rapidly, and foreign trade also increased. However, the foundation for the continuous recovery of the industrial economy needs to be consolidated [63]. Consumption: Slowing Growth - From January to August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 323906 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.6%, and 39668 billion yuan in August, with a year - on - year growth of 3.4%. The consumer market showed the characteristics of stable growth in commodity consumption and resilience in service consumption. Online consumption grew rapidly. Overall, the consumer market is recovering, but the demand foundation needs to be consolidated [74]. Real Estate: Both Investment and Demand Under Pressure - From January to August, national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decline of 12.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased, and sales were weak. The real estate market still faced downward pressure, but inventory reduction policies had some effects. The demand - side confidence needs to be restored [86]. Appendix - In August, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. Industrial production, services, market sales, fixed - asset investment, foreign trade, etc. all showed certain growth, and employment and prices were generally stable. However, there were still many external uncertainties, and the economy faced challenges [103].

股指期权日报 | 2025-09-15 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期权成交量 2025-09-12，上证50ETF期权成交量为160.39万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为194.49万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为231.13万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为16.61万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为216.49万张；上证50股指期权成交量为4.90万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为21.88万张；中证1000期权总成交量为38.00万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.45，环比变动为-0.09；持仓量PCR报0.85，环比变动为-0.06； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.38，环比变动为-0.08；持仓量PCR报1.14，环比变动为-0.15； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.45，环比变动为-0.08；持仓量PCR报1.26，环比变动为+0.02 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报0.47 ，环比变动为+0.10；持仓量PCR报1.18；环比变动为-0. ...

流动性日报 | 2025-09-15 市场流动性概况 2025-09-12，股指板块成交8607.32亿元，较上一交易日变动-15.38%；持仓金额13819.36亿元，较上一交易日变动 -1.89%；成交持仓比为61.92%。 国债板块成交4587.95亿元，较上一交易日变动-20.23%；持仓金额7237.56亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.75%；成交持 仓比为64.11%。 基本金属板块成交3585.21亿元，较上一交易日变动+27.67%；持仓金额5237.86亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.58%； 成交持仓比为74.07%。 贵金属板块成交4777.91亿元，较上一交易日变动+34.69%；持仓金额5045.09亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.04%；成 交持仓比为131.45%。 能源化工板块成交3896.22亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.51%；持仓金额4465.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.44%；成 交持仓比为67.68%。 农产品板块成交2781.89亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.69%；持仓金额5532.36亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.02%；成交 持仓比为42.87%。 黑色建材板块成交2832 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report provides a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) for various types of stock index options on September 11, 2025 [1][2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Option Trading Volume - On September 11, 2025, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) had 115.36 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) had 169.68 million contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options had 11.73 million contracts; ChiNext ETF options had 328.33 million contracts; SSE 50 stock index options had 5.37 million contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 stock index options had 11.94 million contracts; and CSI 1000 options had 42.96 million contracts [1]. - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes for each option type is also presented. For example, for SSE 50 ETF options, call volume was 92.00 million, put volume was 68.39 million, and total volume was 160.39 million [21]. Option PCR - The report shows the put - call ratio (PCR) of turnover and open interest for different stock index options. For instance, the turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was 0.54, with a - 0.15 change compared to the previous period, and the open - interest PCR was 0.91, with a + 0.05 change [2][35]. Option VIX - The VIX values and their changes for different stock index options are reported. For example, the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 19.68%, with a + 2.19% change compared to the previous period [3][50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [1][2] - Iron ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [5][6] - Thermal coal: No specific rating [7] Core Views - Steel market is facing continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand, leading to a sideways-downward price trend [1] - Iron ore market shows limited supply-demand contradictions, with production recovering and inventory at a neutral level [3] - Coking coal and coke markets are under pressure from a new round of price cuts, with supply being loose and demand weakening [5][6] - Thermal coal market has a short-term stable price due to recovering supply and increasing demand, while the long-term supply remains ample [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar closed at 3,092 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil at 3,334 yuan/ton. Spot trading was weak, and prices in some regions declined [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Rebar production decreased but inventory increased, and demand showed no significant improvement. Plate production increased as mills resumed operations, with demand remaining resilient and inventory reaching a medium level [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is advised to be sideways with a downward bias, while no cross-period, cross-variety, cash-futures, or options strategies are recommended [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties dropped slightly. Trading volume at major ports reached 1.124 million tons, up 73.46% from the previous day. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 0.1171 million tons, and the profitability rate was 60.17%, down 0.87% [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: This week, iron ore shipments decreased significantly, especially from Brazil. Demand remained resilient, with hot metal production returning to a high level. Port and in-plant inventories increased slightly, while the stockpile at berths decreased, resulting in a neutral total inventory [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is advised to be sideways, and no other strategies are recommended [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures traded within a range, and the closing prices of the main contracts rebounded. Imported coal traders showed low enthusiasm, and purchases were mainly for immediate needs [5] - **Logic and Views**: Coking coal production is gradually recovering, but demand is weak due to the expected price cuts for coke. Coke supply is ample, while demand from steel mills is weakening as their profits shrink. The possibility of a new round of price cuts is increasing [5][6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are advised to be traded sideways, and no other strategies are recommended [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices rose slightly. In Yulin, a few mines raised prices, while most lacked the basis for continuous increases. In Ordos, prices remained stable, and trading was steady. At ports, prices were stable, inventory continued to accumulate, and traders were more cautious. Pre-holiday restocking demand increased, and trading was fair. Imported coal had a price advantage as domestic coal prices strengthened [7] - **Demand and Logic**: Supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and demand from the chemical and metallurgical industries is being released. In the short term, coal prices will remain stable, while in the long term, the supply will remain ample. Attention should be paid to non-power coal consumption and restocking [7] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is recommended [7]

化工日报 | 2025-09-12 新装置提前投产，市场心态承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4302元/吨（较前一交易日变动-17元/吨，幅度-0.39%），EG华东市场现货价 4422元/吨（较前一交易日变动-18元/吨，幅度-0.41%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）106元/吨（环比-11元/ 吨）。隆众资讯9月11日报道：山东一套90万吨/年的乙二醇新装置昨日开始前端投料试车，目前进展顺利，后期关 注工厂出料进展。新装置提前投产，市场心态承压。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-61美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-69元/吨（环比+1 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为45.9万吨（环比+1.0万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为36.3万吨（环比-1.3万吨）。本周华东主港计划到港总数9.3万吨，到港量中性。截 至9月11日，华东主港地区MEG港口库存总量36.32万吨，较周一降低2.36万吨；较上周四降低1.31万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，乙二醇负 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-09-12 服务行业： 1）美国8月消费者价格指数同比增长2.9%，预估为2.9%，前值为2.7%；环比增长0.4%，预期增长0.3%， 前值0.2%。美国上周初请失业金人数为26.3万人，预估23.5万人，前值23.7万人。美国短期利率期货在CPI数据公 布后上涨，交易员对美联储降息的押注更加坚定，认为到2025年底美联储至少会降息两次。2）工业和信息化部办 公厅、民政部办公厅公布智能养老服务机器人结对攻关与场景应用试点项目名单。根据名单，此次试点围绕情感 陪护、康复支持、生活照料、移乘转运、辅助行走等10类应用场景，共包含32个智能养老服务机器人项目，譬如： 智能陪护机器人研发与应用、智能康养外骨骼机器人结对攻关与场景应用。每个项目设有1个牵头单位和若干参与 单位 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）化工：PTA、尿素价格回落。2）农业：鸡蛋价格连续回升。 中游：1）化工：聚酯开工率上行。2）能源：电厂耗煤量提高。 关注服务业下游养老机器人试点 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）第26届中国国际光电博览会（以下简称"光博会"）于9月10日—12日在深圳国际会展中心 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core View of the Report - LPG market sentiment has marginally improved recently, with the external market price rebounding continuously and the PG futures showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. However, the market is currently in a state with support at the bottom but limited upward drivers. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, yet the global oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is still weak. As the LPG price rebounds, PDH profits shrink again, and the device operating rate has dropped to around 70% this week, creating resistance in the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 11, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4530 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3990 - 4260 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4450 - 4620 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4560 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4580 - 4705 yuan/ton; South China market, 4498 - 4690 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of October 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 605 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 585 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4733 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton, and butane was 4577 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 598 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 578 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4678 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, and butane was 4522 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton [1]. - Yesterday, the prices in Shandong and South China dropped, while the mainstream transaction price in the East China civil gas market remained stable with a fair sales atmosphere [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be volatile and upward - trending. There are opportunities to go long on the PG main contract on dips, but the expected upside space is limited. No strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets will continue to show a volatile trend until the interest rate cut is implemented [1] - In the short term, nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside space. For stainless steel, inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [2][4][5] Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,520 yuan/ton and closed at 120,620 yuan/ton, a 0.11% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 87,538 (+12,532) lots, and the open interest was 81,691 (79) lots. The contract oscillated in the range of 120,110 - 120,910 yuan/ton at night and in the daytime, and finally closed slightly up by 140 yuan. The slowdown of the US August PPI year - on - year increase and the decline of core PPI month - on - month strengthened the September interest rate cut expectation, but the market is waiting for the US CPI data, resulting in cautious bullish sentiment and strong wait - and - see attitude [2] Nickel Ore - The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and ocean freight continues to rise. Philippine quotes remain firm, and subsequent mine quotes may rise due to the increase in downstream nickel - iron prices. Shipment is slightly delayed due to rainfall. The new transaction price in the domestic nickel - iron market is 960 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch). Domestic iron plants still have profit losses and are cautious in nickel ore procurement. The supply in Indonesia remains in a loose pattern, and the September (forward) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the domestic trade premium remaining at +24 and the premium range being +23 - 24 [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price oscillates horizontally, downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and spot trading is generally average. The premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remain stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 50 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changes by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume is 22,111 (-193) tons, and the LME nickel inventory is 223,152 (2,058) tons [3] Strategy - Short - term nickel price: mainly volatile, easily affected by macro - sentiment, supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, limited upside space. Unilateral: mainly range operation; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,905 yuan/ton and closed at 12,870 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,848 (-2,615.00) lots, and the open interest was 128,344 (5,176) lots. It oscillated in the range of 12,885 - 12,930 yuan/ton at night and closed slightly up. During the daytime, due to the weakening of black - series futures, it failed to continue the night - session upward trend and finally closed down 45 yuan [4] Spot - Due to the narrow - range oscillation of the futures market, downstream buyers are cautious and mainly purchase on demand. Transactions are dull, and prices remain stable. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 325 - 625 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changes by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4][5] Strategy - Inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound in stainless steel prices. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. Unilateral: neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic policy expectation is rising, and attention should be paid to China's financial data in August and subsequent consumption - related incremental policies [2]. - Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals and policy dynamics, and the "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption [3]. - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and overseas inflation has a smoother upward path [4]. - For commodities, in the domestic market, pay attention to the black and new - energy metal sectors; overseas, focus on precious metals and agricultural products. In terms of strategy, go long on industrial products and precious metals at dips [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising global inflation. China's July export by dollar - terms increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and in August, it increased by 4.4% year - on - year with a slowdown in growth rate. The import growth rate also slowed down. The domestic economic data still faced pressure, but the official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4 [2]. - The government introduced a series of policies, including measures to stabilize the real estate market, promote service consumption, and expand effective investment. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September [2]. - On September 11, A - shares rose significantly, with the ChiNext Index soaring over 5% [2]. US Situation - The US ISM manufacturing index in August continued to contract for the sixth month, with improved new orders and a falling price index. The core CPI in August was in line with expectations and the previous value, and the main driving force for price increases came from cars and services [3]. - The US appellate court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal, and the Supreme Court will quickly hear the case. Trump said that India and the US were continuing negotiations to resolve trade barriers [3]. Fed and Global Central Banks - Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on August 22 turned dovish, paving the way for a September rate cut by the Fed. The US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate in August were worse than expected, and the Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle [4]. - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second time, and traders reduced their bets on the ECB's easing policy [4]. Commodity Analysis - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, precious metals and agricultural products can be considered due to inflation expectations [5]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. The medium - term supply of energy is expected to be relatively loose, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention [5]. - Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental signals. Precious metals have an opportunity for long - term allocation as the Fed is about to restart the rate - cut cycle [5]. Strategy - Go long on industrial products and precious metals at dips in commodity and stock index futures [6]. Important News - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on September 12 to introduce the achievements of fiscal reform and development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [2][8]. - The US Senate Banking Committee approved the nomination of Milan as a Fed governor [4][8]. - The US government appealed against the ruling that blocked the president from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook [4][8]. - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, adjusted inflation expectations, and the euro fell [8]. - South Korean President Lee Jae - myung said that the South Korean stock market was still seriously undervalued and left the capital gains tax issue to the National Assembly [4][8]. - The IEA expects a record - high oil surplus in 2026 due to OPEC+ production increases [8].