化工日报 | 2025-09-12 轮胎开工率环比回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15905元/吨，较前一日变动-75元/吨；NR主力合约12620元/吨，较前一日变动-95 元/吨；BR主力合约11655元/吨，较前一日变动-65元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15050元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15000元/吨，较前一 日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1860美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1775 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年8月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计66.4万吨，较2024年同期的61.6万吨增加7.8%。1-8月，中国进 口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计537.3万吨，较2024年同期的451.4万吨增加19%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前8个月，科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计105万吨，较2024年同期的92万吨 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the pure benzene market, new domestic production capacity will be concentrated in August - September, leading to high supply pressure. The downstream开工率 has weakened again, and the demand for pure benzene has been affected. The performance of downstream industries during the peak season has fallen short of expectations [3]. - In the styrene market, the downstream提货量 during the peak season is acceptable, but the number of maintenance operations has increased, causing the开工率 to peak and decline, and the port inventory has also started to decline. The downstream开工率 of EB has recovered, but the ABS inventory pressure is relatively large [3]. - The market is starting to pay attention to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on different industries. In the petrochemical industry, further details on the rectification of plants over 20 years old are awaited [3]. 3) Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 110 yuan/ton (- 6), and the spot - M2 spread is - 20 yuan/ton (+ 5) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 44 yuan/ton (- 1) [1]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 132 dollars/ton (- 4), the FOB Korea processing fee is 114 dollars/ton (- 4), and the US - Korea spread is 69.6 dollars/ton (+ 7) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 368 yuan/ton (+ 4), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 14.40 million tons (- 0.50 million tons) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 176,500 tons (- 20,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 87,000 tons (- 9,500 tons), and the operating rate is 75.0% (- 4.8%) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - EPS: The production profit is 196 yuan/ton (- 15), and the operating rate is 61.02% (+ 8.49%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 54 yuan/ton (- 15), and the operating rate is 61.90% (+ 0.90%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 96 yuan/ton (+ 23), and the operating rate is 70.00% (+ 1.00%) [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1,685 yuan/ton (+ 5), and the operating rate is 86.21% (- 4.21%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 297 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 69.00% (- 6.00%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is - 29 yuan/ton (+ 70), and the operating rate is 63.52% (- 4.44%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1,287 yuan/ton (- 13), and the operating rate is 64.20% (+ 4.20%) [1]. 4) Strategies - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and Inter - period: Do a positive spread for the EB2510 - EB2511 spread when it is low [4]. - Cross - variety: Expand the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread when it is low in the short term [4].

油料日报 | 2025-09-12 豆一新季早熟豆上市，花生新米上市需求不旺 大豆观点 市场分析 策略 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2510合约7786.00元/吨，较前日变化-8.00元/吨，幅度-0.10%。现货方面，花生现货均价 8300.00元/吨，环比变化-160.00元/吨，幅度-1.89%，现货基差PK10+414.00，环比变化-192.00，幅度-31.68%。 市场资讯汇总：现货方面全国花生市场通货米均价4.23元/斤，基本稳定，其中，河南白沙通货米4.35-4.5元/斤不等、 8个筛价格4.85-4.9元/斤，大花生通货米4-4.3元/斤不等，以品种、质量论价。山东油厂油料米合同采购报价7800-7900 元/吨，通货米合同采购报价8400元/吨左右，以质论价，成交及到货量较少，以外调为主。 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3945.00元/吨，较前日变化+34.00元/吨，幅度+0.87%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+275，较前日变化-34，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北大豆市场新季大豆零星上市，商品豆不论蛋白毛粮价格2元/斤，芽豆价格2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg sectors is cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market is difficult to change, but in the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the reduction of production capacity and national policy changes [2] - The significant pressure on the supply side of eggs makes the festival boost obviously weak this year, and attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market on the spot market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract yesterday was 13,320 yuan/ton, a change of +5.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a change of +0.04% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 13.50 yuan/kg, a change of +0.02 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 13.65 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 13.15 yuan/kg, unchanged [1] - Agricultural product prices: On September 11, the "200 - Index of Agricultural Product Wholesale Prices" rose 0.11 points, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.13 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 19.93 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; beef was 65.77 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; mutton was 61.17 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; eggs were 7.93 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; white - striped chickens were 17.61 yuan/kg, up 0.2% [1] Market Analysis - The weight - reducing slaughter of group factories has significantly weakened the boosting effect of festivals this year. The pig production capacity has remained at around 40.5 million heads for about a year, and there is room for reduction in the production capacity in the future with the improvement of production efficiency [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2510 contract yesterday was 3044 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of +25.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a change of +0.83% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.27 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.65 yuan/jin, a change of +0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 3.27 yuan/jin, a change of +0.16 yuan [3] - Inventory: On September 11, the national production - link inventory was 0.45 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous day, a decrease of 6.25%. The circulation - link inventory remained unchanged at 0.79 days [3] Market Analysis - High - temperature weather in mid - and early August led to frequent problems of egg storage deterioration, and all links were cautious in purchasing. In late August, downstream stocking drove up egg prices slightly. School demand recovered this month, but tourism and catering demand declined significantly. Food enterprise processing demand was strong in mid - and early September, but the peak production season of food enterprises ended near the Mid - Autumn Festival. Supermarkets and e - commerce still had some pre - festival promotion demand, and overall demand gradually declined over time [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation of strong expectations and weak reality continues, and polyolefins are in weak consolidation. Multiple PE units are under maintenance, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate and a projected slight relief in supply pressure, while new PP production capacity is ramping up. Downstream demand is in the transitional period between the seasonal peak and off - peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rates of downstream sectors such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend, while those of plastic weaving and BOPP films are flat compared to the previous period. Upstream production inventory has slightly increased, mid - stream inventory has decreased, and downstream rigid - demand procurement has increased. With the arrival of the peak demand season in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is in weak consolidation, the profit of PDH - based PP is slightly in the red, and the maintenance volume of PDH units has increased [2] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, as well as the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of LL (crude - oil - based), PP (crude - oil - based and PDH - based), and the operating rates of PE and PP, along with the weekly production and maintenance losses of PE and PP, and the capacity utilization rate of PDH - based PP [22][23][29] III. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - The differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the differences between PP low - melt copolymer, PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China are presented [28][36][37] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The import profits of LL and PP, the export profit of PP to Southeast Asia, and the price differences between LL in different regions (US Gulf FOB - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, Europe FD - China CFR) and PP in different regions (PP homopolymer injection molding in US Gulf FOB - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR) are shown [44][51][54] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The operating rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, winding films, and PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP are presented [63][64][73] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports are shown [75][79][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: On Hold [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The peak - season demand for lead is not obvious, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. In September, this pattern may not change significantly. However, under the background of the Fed's interest rate cut, lead prices may maintain a shock - strengthening pattern. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.17/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to -30.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, waste white shells changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, and waste black shells changed by -50 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On September 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,815 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, a change of 105 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,772 lots, a decrease of 3,543 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 49,603 lots, a decrease of 864 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 16,920 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 16,790 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,860 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the afternoon close. Some downstream battery enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to fear of price drops, and the market transaction was mainly for rigid demand, but there was a slight improvement in some areas [2] Inventory - On September 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 70 tons compared with the same period last week. As of September 11, the LME lead inventory was 232,625 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt demand continues to be weak, and the market atmosphere is dull. The crude oil price fluctuates, with high short - term uncertainty and limited guidance for asphalt price direction. The terminal demand for asphalt is poor, especially in the southern region, with an unobvious peak - season feature. The supply of asphalt spot resources in some areas has increased, suppressing market sentiment. If the rebound of oil prices is insufficient, the upward driving force for the asphalt market is limited [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On September 11, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2511 in the afternoon session was 3,463 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 252,780 lots, a net increase of 8,010 lots, and the trading volume was 186,437 lots, a net increase of 36,014 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,806 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,490 - 3,820 yuan/ton; South China: 3,480 - 3,540 yuan/ton; East China: 3,560 - 3,700 yuan/ton [1] - The asphalt prices in North China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing markets dropped yesterday, while that in the Shandong market rose slightly, and the prices in other regions remained generally stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Oscillating weakly; no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, futures - spot, and options [2] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly production, production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10] Core View of the Report - The CPI data has shown marginal warming, but the weak employment data has left the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September unchanged. It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a similar pattern. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow, and it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The annual rate of the US CPI in August was 2.9%, the largest increase in 7 months; the monthly rate was 0.4%, the highest since January, higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate was 3.1%, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 6 was 263,000, the highest since the week of October 23, 2021, with a market expectation of 235,000. The CME Fedwatch shows that the expectation of a rate cut has not wavered, with a 93.9% probability of a 25BP rate cut and a 6.1% probability of a 50BP rate cut at the September FOMC meeting [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 833.38 yuan/gram and closed at 830.78 yuan/gram, a change of -0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session of the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 829.52 yuan/gram and closed at 829.26 yuan/gram, a -0.18% change from the previous afternoon's close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,803.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,798.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 301,985 lots, and the open interest was 203,343 lots. The night session of the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,777 yuan/kg and closed at 9,886 yuan/kg, a +0.90% change from the previous afternoon's close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 11, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.024%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.50%, a change of -0.41BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Long and Short Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On September 11, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 88 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 39 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 308,441 lots, a change of -41.25% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 660,300 lots, a change of -38.07% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In terms of precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 977.95 tons the previous day, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,069.6 tons, a decrease of 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 11, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was -9.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -865.00 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 84.79, a change of -0.34% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.48, a change of -0.11% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On the previous trading day (September 11, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 36,270 kg, a change of -26.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 304,080 kg, a change of -46.33% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 18,442 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 540 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 815 yuan/gram and 845 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 9,600 yuan/kg and 10,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Before the export window period, conduct positive spreads trading for UR01 - 05 to capture fluctuations; after the export window period, conduct reverse spreads trading for UR01 - 05 at high prices [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has weak domestic demand with manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders and light trading volume. Although the autumn agricultural fertilizer season has started in some areas and there is rigid demand from the compound fertilizer and melamine industries, industrial demand was previously affected by the military parade and is gradually recovering [2] - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. Coal - based urea has decent profits, but the cost support is average [2] - The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, as the bid volume is at a historical high. September is still an export window period, with accelerating export rhythm and declining port inventories. The export volume in August and September is expected to be high, which will lead to a decrease in urea inventories. Focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][6][7][8][15][17] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [18][23] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures involve production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [26][27][29][32] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, the price differences, and the export profit and disk export profit [33][35][38][40][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [49][50][51] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [54][57][61]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-12 铝期货方面：2025-09-11日沪铝主力合约开于20780元/吨，收于20915元/吨，较上一交易日变化130元/吨，最 高价达20920元/吨，最低价达到20750元/吨。全天交易日成交106885手，全天交易日持仓204582手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-11，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.6吨，仓单库存65734 吨，较上一交易日变化797吨，LME铝库存485275吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-11SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3025元/吨，山东价格录得3005元/吨，河南价格录得 3065元/吨，广西价格录得3215元/吨，贵州价格录得3230元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得338美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-09-11氧化铝主力合约开于2923元/吨，收于2945元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化23元/ 吨，变化幅度0.79%，最高价达到2962元/吨，最低价为2923元/吨。全天交易日成交249216手，全天交易日持 仓273311手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-09-11保太 ...