Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The latest US PMI and JOLTS job openings showed better-than-expected performance, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations and mixed closing of the three major US stock indexes. In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded above the boom-bust line, with significant improvements in new orders and production indexes. After the market rally, there is a divergence, which is expected to continue, and large-cap stocks may have a phased catch-up in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Manufacturing industry: In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. The new orders index rebounded slightly above the critical point, and the production index returned to the expansion range, reaching a seven-month high. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49, higher than the expected 48.8 but still in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Job openings in May increased from 7.4 million in April to 7.769 million, far exceeding the economists' expectation of 7.3 million [1]. - Index performance: In the spot market, the three major A-share indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to close at 3457.75 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%. Most sector indexes rose, with the comprehensive, pharmaceutical and biological, banking, and non-ferrous metal industries leading the gains, and the computer, commercial retail, and communication industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 1.5 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, Trump said that he would not consider extending the July 9 deadline for tariff negotiations, might not reach an agreement with Japan before July 9, and Japan might face a 30% or 35% tariff. There were two or three candidates for the Fed chair. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising 0.91% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing down [1]. - Futures market: The basis discount of stock index futures deepened again. In terms of trading volume and open interest, only the trading volume and open interest of IM increased simultaneously [2]. Strategy - The latest US PMI and JOLTS job openings showed better-than-expected performance, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations and mixed closing of the three major US stock indexes. In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded above the boom-bust line, with significant improvements in new orders and production indexes. After the market rally, there is a divergence, which is expected to continue, and large-cap stocks may have a phased catch-up in the short term [3]. Chart Summary Macro Economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the US Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A-share style trends [6][7]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on July 1, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index (+0.39%), Shenzhen Component Index (+0.11%), ChiNext Index (-0.24%), CSI 300 Index (+0.17%), SSE 50 Index (+0.16%), CSI 500 Index (+0.33%), and CSI 1000 Index (+0.28%) [12]. - Also include charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. Only the trading volume and open interest of IM increased, while those of IF, IH, and IC decreased [17]. - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures (futures - spot), with the basis discount of all contracts deepening [38]. - Table 4 shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, with various spreads showing different changes [43]. - Include charts on the open interest, open interest ratio, and foreign capital net open interest of different stock index futures contracts [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-02 参议院通过大而美法案 金价震荡走高 市场要闻与重要数据 当地时间7月1日，美国国会参议院通过全面减税和支出法案（大而美法案），并提交众议院。此外，7月9日的贸易 关税暂停最后期限越来越近，而总统特朗普表示，不考虑延长7月9日关税谈判截止日期。美联储方面，无法断言7 月降息是否为时过早，不排除任何一次会议上采取行动的可能性。经济数据方面，美国5月JOLTs职位空缺意外升 至去年11月以来最高，交易员略微削减美联储降息预期。昨日黄金价格继续呈现震荡走高格局。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-01，沪金主力合约开于 766.18元/克，收于 776.10元/克，较前一交易日收盘 1.11%。当日成交量为 171739手，持仓量为 167465手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 780.80 元/克，收于 777.10 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.84%。 2025-07-01，沪银主力合约开于 8737元/千克，收于 8810元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 342536手，持仓量 264724手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,802 元/千克， ...

伊拉克高硫燃料油出口量维持高位 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.37%，报2979元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.03%，报3590 元/吨。 随着中东局势缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，并带动能源板块大幅下跌，目前市场重回基 本面主导的逻辑。 高硫燃料油方面，近日价差结构明显转弱，现货贴水、月差、裂解价差连续走低，反映现货端供应相对充裕，市 场利好驱动不足。目前来看，欧佩克增产将带动中高硫原油与燃料油供应提升。此外，与以色列停火后伊朗出口 有回升迹象，供应压力或开始显现。值得一提的是，伊拉克高硫燃料油出口维持高位，6月份进一步增加。参考船 期数据，伊拉克6月高硫燃料油发货量预计为167万吨，环比5月增加32万吨，同比去年提升70万吨。伊拉克部分货 源可能来自于伊朗，也印证了高硫燃料油供应的增长态势。需求方面，目前夏季发电端需求较为旺盛，航运端消 费也相对持稳。炼厂端需求则需要裂解价差进一步回调来吸引增量，近期国内部分炼厂消费税抵扣比例上调也有 利于高硫燃料油进口需求回升。因此，高硫燃料油市场结构调整充分后将迎来新的支撑。 低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，市场结 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-02 需求淡季，下游刚需采购 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7249元/吨（-12），PP主力合约收盘价为7044元/吨（-26），LL华北现货为7190 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为-59元/吨（-38），LL 华东基差为51元/吨（-38）， PP华东基差为76元/吨（-14）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为76.4%（-2.3%），PP开工率为79.3%（-0.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为378.7元/吨（+19.9），PP油制生产利润为-51.3元/吨（+19.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为274.9元/吨（+6.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-48.2元/吨（+10.1），PP进口利润为-496.8元/吨（-182.2），PP出口利润为23.2美元/吨 （+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（+0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.0%（-1.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of Maersk in the first week of the second half of July remained unchanged, delaying the previous market expectation that the freight rate would peak in the first half of July. The 08 contract has partially repaired the expected difference, and the market is still searching for the peak [1][5]. - The supply and demand of the US route increased simultaneously in the early stage, and the supply recovered rapidly. The freight rates from the US East and West coasts have declined from their highs but are showing signs of stabilization [3]. - Since the current freight rate is likely to be searching for the peak, the off - season EC2410 contract can be sold for hedging at high prices during the freight rate decline [6]. - The trading strategy includes a volatile main contract and a long - December and short - October spread strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 1, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 87,953 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 96,679 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1341.50, 1187.80, 1322.10, 1904.90, 1383.80, and 1538.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Maersk's price for week 29 from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1780/2980; HPL's quotes for the first half of July, the second half of July, and the first half of August are 2035/3235, 2235/3535, and 2235/3535 respectively. Different alliances and shipping companies also have different price quotes [2]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price announced on June 27 was 2030.00 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was 2578.00 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 4717.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on July 1 was 2123.24 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1619.19 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In the early stage of the US route, the supply and demand increased simultaneously, and the carriers actively restored capacity in June and July. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the US East and West coasts was 350,000 TEU in June, 243,400 TEU in May, 359,000 TEU in July, and 299,000 TEU in August [3]. - The monthly average weekly capacity from Shanghai to European base ports was 261,900 TEU in July and 269,900 TEU in August. There were 8 blank sailings in July (5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 blank sailings in August (both by the OA Alliance). The capacity in July decreased compared to the previous week's statistics mainly because the MSC (ALBATROS) route skipped Shanghai from week 28 to week 31, with the previously allocated ship capacity being about 15,000 TEU [4]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors include Iran's indecision on whether to hold nuclear negotiations with the US and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with US President Trump at the White House on July 7 [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is no specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis in the provided text other than the above - mentioned freight rate and capacity information which is also affected by demand and economic factors.

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - The actual sown area of U.S. cotton in the new year is higher than expected, and the supply may not show positive signs. The domestic cotton market has a tight supply-demand situation in the later stage of this year, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off-season [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,187 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The new-year actual sown area of U.S. cotton was 10.12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the supply-side positive factors may not appear, and attention should be paid to the weather and new cotton growth in major producing countries. Domestically, the supply-demand situation is tight in the later stage, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The macro uncertainty still exists, and the continuous upward space of cotton prices is restricted [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply increase expectation in the Brazilian 25/26 sugar season has not changed, and the new-season production in India and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the ICE raw sugar price. However, the downside space of raw sugar is limited [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the first half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil decreased by 21.49% year-on-year, and the sugar production decreased by 22.12% year-on-year [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply pressure has been largely reflected, and the downside space of raw sugar is limited. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar and the substitute import policy [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy, focusing on the Brazilian sugar production estimate and the domestic import rhythm [6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,026 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian needles was 5,085 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The 09 contract is mainly priced by Russian needles and Uzbek needles, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the overseas supply pattern of pure benzene, including regional and national capacity distribution, and the impact factors on benzene supply in different countries and regions through the proportion of different production processes [2]. - It also examines China's import - export situation of pure benzene, highlighting that South Korea is the main source of China's imports, and the demand for gasoline in the United States can affect the volume of China's imports from South Korea [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overseas Pure Benzene Supply Pattern 3.1.1 Overseas Pure Benzene Capacity by Region and Country - Asia has the most concentrated pure benzene production capacity, followed by Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. China ranks first in the world in terms of capacity, and the top three overseas countries are the United States, South Korea, and Japan [2][7]. - China accounts for 30% of the global pure benzene capacity. Northeast Asia (excluding China) accounts for 18%, Europe 15%, North America 13%, and Southeast Asia 12%. Among overseas countries, the United States accounts for 16% of overseas capacity, South Korea 14%, and Japan 9% [7][8][9]. 3.1.2 Overseas Pure Benzene Production Process Capacity Distribution - The main supply source of pure benzene both in China and overseas is reforming, accounting for 49%. Overseas, ethylene cracking accounts for 30% (higher than China's 25%), and toluene disproportionation accounts for about 12% (lower than China's 24%). Overseas toluene demethylation accounts for 6% (higher than China's 2%) [12][13]. - In the United States, catalytic reforming accounts for 56%, ethylene cracking 22%, and toluene disproportionation 15%. In South Korea, catalytic reforming accounts for 43%, and toluene disproportionation accounts for 26%. In Japan, reforming accounts for 38%, and HDA accounts for 16% [16][20]. - In Western Europe, ethylene cracking accounts for 56%, catalytic reforming 29%, and HDA 9%. In Southeast Asia, reforming accounts for 59%, and ethylene cracking 28%. In the Middle East, reforming accounts for 79%, and ethylene cracking has a lower proportion [20][22]. 3.2 China's Pure Benzene Import - Export Pattern and South Korea's Pure Benzene Export Pattern 3.2.1 China's Pure Benzene Import - Export Pattern - China mainly imports pure benzene, and the export volume is negligible. The import dependence has been in the range of 15% - 18% in recent three years [27]. - In 2024, South Korea was China's largest source of pure benzene imports, accounting for 50% of the total imports. Other major sources include Brunei and Thailand, accounting for 12% and 11% respectively [28]. 3.2.2 South Korea's Pure Benzene Export Pattern - South Korea is the world's main exporter of pure benzene. In 2024, China was its main export destination, accounting for 71%, followed by the United States at 19% [35]. - The demand for gasoline in the United States affects the supply of aromatic components in the United States, which in turn affects South Korea's exports to the United States and then China's imports from South Korea [2][35]. - Since the second half of 2024, the total gasoline inventory in the United States has rebounded rapidly. In the first half of 2025, the inventory depletion rate was slow. The price difference between the US and South Korea was low, and South Korea sent more pure benzene to China, resulting in a 63% year - on - year increase in China's pure benzene imports from January to May 2025 [37][38].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-02 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20780元/吨，较上一交易日持平，长江A00铝现货升贴水较上一 交易日下跌30元/吨至20元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20560元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌50元/ 吨至-180元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20690元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌25元/吨至-45元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-01日沪铝主力合约开于20555元/吨，收于20635元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨85元/ 吨，涨幅0.41%，最高价达20640元/吨，最低价达到20505元/吨。全天交易日成交134634手，较上一交易日减 少33203手，全天交易日持仓283099手，较上一交易日增加10693手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-30，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.8万吨。截止2025-07-01，LME铝库存34.5 吨，较前一交易日增加550吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-01 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3075元/吨，山东价格录得3080元/吨，广西价格录得 3180元/吨， ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-07-02 纸货交割结束后，港口基差快速回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润648元/吨（-13）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1943元/吨（-13），内蒙北线基差159元/吨（-16），内蒙南线1960元/吨（-100）；山东临沂2295元/吨（+15）， 鲁南基差111元/吨（+12）；河南2170元/吨（-30），河南基差-14元/吨（-33）；河北2185元/吨（-15），河北基差61元 /吨（-18）。隆众内地工厂库存341550吨（-25800），西北工厂库存205500吨（-31500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单240700 吨（-34080），西北工厂待发订单119500吨（-30000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2535元/吨（-270），太仓基差151元/吨（-273），CFR中国287美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差289 元/吨（-12），常州甲醇2435元/吨；广东甲醇2440元/吨（+0），广东基差56元/吨（-3）。隆众港口总库存670500吨 （+84100），江苏港口库存356500吨 ...

供应压力有限，局部现货价格上涨 市场分析 石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-02 1、7月1日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3562元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨6元/吨，涨幅0.17%； 持仓226856手，环比下降8327手，成交155844手，环比下降9208手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4030元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日西北、华北以及山东市场沥青现货价格均出现上涨，川渝地区沥青现货价格小幅下跌，其余地区沥青现货价 格大体企稳，部分地区主营炼厂上调沥青结算价格。沥青盘面则延续震荡态势，波动率较小。就沥青自身基本面 而言，多空因素交织，缺乏突出矛盾。具体来看，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。原油价格大幅回落后， 炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂生产积极性增强，另外部分企业消费税抵扣比例上调有利于提高开工负荷，但整体 增量并不多，当前沥青供应压力有限。与此同时，天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求缺乏亮点，情绪仍较为 谨慎，整体市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期 ...