化工日报 | 2025-12-26 下游轮胎开工率涨跌互现，总体表现一般 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15730元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨；NR主力合约12695元/吨，较前一日变动+80 元/吨；BR主力合约11285元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15300元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14800元/吨，较前一 日变动+20元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1880美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11100元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11100元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, while the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. The far - month contracts are under pressure from the potential resumption of the Suez Canal, which may suppress their valuations. The 02 contract's delivery is becoming clearer and will follow real - world quotes more closely. The focus now is on whether the first half of January marks the end of this round of freight rate increases [8][9][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Multiple shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes for the first and second weeks of January are 1585/2550 and 1570/2520 respectively; HPL's quotes for the second half of December and the first half of January are 1535/2535 and 1835/3035 respectively. Other companies like MSC, ONE, HMM, YML, CMA, EMC, and OOCL also have their respective quotes [1][2][3]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Israel will never fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip and will set up a security zone in the Gaza Strip to protect Israeli communities, even after the cease - fire and Hamas disarmament [3]. - **Policy Changes**: The Shanghai International Energy Trading Center plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Trading Center Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract". It will adjust the contract months and the minimum price change [4]. II. Supply and Demand - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly container shipping capacity in December, January, and February is 31.45, 30.46, and 28.47 million TEU respectively. There are empty sailings and TBNs in January and February, mainly from the OA and PA alliances [5]. - **Demand**: Information from various surveys shows that the cargo volume is gradually recovering [6]. III. Contract Analysis - **12 - Month Contract**: The delivery and settlement price of the 12 - month contract is gradually becoming clear, estimated to be between 1600 - 1700 points. The large - scale cargo collection and container dumping from December 8 - 15 may drag down the index on December 22 and 29 [6][7]. - **EC2602 Contract**: The delivery of the 02 contract is becoming clearer, and it will follow real - world quotes more closely. The current focus is on whether the first half of January is the end of this round of freight rate increases. The Maersk quote of 2500 US dollars/FEU is equivalent to about 1750 - 1800 points on the SCFIS [8]. - **Far - Month Contracts**: Due to the high probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026, the far - month contracts are under pressure, and their valuations may be revised downward. The normal SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate from 2017 - 2019 was between 600 - 1200 US dollars/FEU, corresponding to about 600 - 1400 points on the SCFIS [9]. IV. Market Data - **Futures Market**: As of December 25, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 66,466.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 36,322.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [10]. - **Spot Market**: On December 19, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route price was 1533 US dollars/TEU, the Shanghai - US West route price was 1992 US dollars/FEU, and the Shanghai - US East route price was 2846 US dollars/FEU. On December 22, the SCFIS Shanghai - Europe was 1589.20 points, and the Shanghai - US West was 962.10 points [10]. - **Container Ship Delivery**: In 2025, 250 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 21, 2025, 75 ships with a capacity of 12000 - 16999 TEU and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17000 TEU have been delivered [10]. V. Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: The 12 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upstream prices are showing a differentiated trend, with nickel prices rising, egg prices falling, and oil and liquefied natural gas prices dropping. The mid - stream has a low - season for chemical product production, increased coal consumption in power plants, and low asphalt construction rates. The downstream real - estate market is warming up, while domestic flight frequencies are decreasing [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Nickel prices have rebounded significantly, with the price on December 25th at 127,383.3 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 5.79% [2][37]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices declined on the previous day, with the spot price on December 25th at 6.3 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 5.02% [2][37]. - **Energy**: Crude oil prices have corrected, and liquefied natural gas prices have continued to decline. The spot price of WTI crude oil on December 25th was 58.4 dollars/barrel, a year - on - year increase of 4.55%, and the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3,356 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 7.34% [2][37]. Mid - stream - **Chemical Industry**: It is the off - season for chemical product production [3]. - **Energy**: Coal consumption in power plants has increased [3]. - **Infrastructure**: Asphalt construction rates are at a low level [3]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have continued to pick up [3]. - **Services**: The number of domestic flights has decreased [3]. Industry Events - **Production Industry**: On the afternoon of December 25th, four leading silicon wafer companies jointly raised their prices significantly, with an average increase of 12%. The average price increase of various silicon wafer models this week is between 3.3% - 9.8%, mainly due to the large increase in upstream silicon material prices. The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration is soliciting opinions on promoting the supply - demand balance of the e - cigarette market [1]. - **Service Industry**: The People's Bank of China and seven other departments have issued a document to support the construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor, including exploring digital financial international cooperation and promoting cross - border payments using central bank digital currencies [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The macro environment has frequent catalysts, and precious metals continue to show strong performance. With the increase in market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may rise, and the price of gold is expected to be in a volatile and slightly strong pattern. Silver's price is also expected to remain strong due to spot shortages, but the risk of historical high prices should be watched out for [1][8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" integer mark during intraday trading for the first time in 15 months, reaching a maximum of 6.9985. The onshore RMB against the US dollar approached the "7" mark, reaching a maximum of 7.0053. Israel's high - level officials signaled a possible military conflict with Iran again. The Bank of Japan's governor said that it is steadily approaching the 2% inflation target and may raise interest rates if the economic outlook is in line with expectations [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,013.94 yuan/gram, closed at 1,008.76 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it closed at 1,019.60 yuan/gram, up 1.07% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17,630.00 yuan/kg, closed at 17,397.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,313,979 lots, and the open interest was 304,054 lots. In the night session, it closed at 18,131 yuan/kg, up 4.22% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 25, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.63%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On December 25, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long position decreased by 4,521 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 92 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 307,456 lots, a change of - 37.41% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2602 contract, the long position decreased by 15,678 lots, and the short position decreased by 14,342 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 3,355,499 lots, a change of 1.64% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,068.27 tons, an increase of 3.71 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, a decrease of 56 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 25, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 0.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 615.93 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 57.98, a change of 0.63% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 64.27, a change of 0.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On December 25, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 28,920 kg, a change of - 48.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 502,128 kg, a change of - 50.32% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 31,890 kg [7].

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-26 综合来看：受股市行情带动，政治局会议释放宽货币信号，LPR保持不变，同时美联储降息预期延续、全球贸易不 确定性上升增加了外资流入的不确定性。整体看，债市在稳增长与宽松预期间震荡运行，短期关注月底政策信号。 策略 单边：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡。 套利：关注2603基差回落。 套保：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保。 风险 流动性快速紧缩风险 股债翘翘板下，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The fuel oil futures prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed an upward trend at night, with the main contract of high-sulfur fuel oil rising 1.82% to 2,518 yuan/ton and the main contract of low-sulfur fuel oil rising 0.83% to 3,037 yuan/ton [1] - The crude oil price has been oscillating and rebounding recently. The escalation of the situation in Venezuela has increased the sentiment premium, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has stabilized and rebounded recently. The seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers by the US may lead to an increase in fuel oil procurement demand from domestic refineries, but the supply is still abundant, and the significant increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the market [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase. The short-term market pressure may be limited due to the boost in terminal demand at the end of the year and the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel, but the valuation will continue to be suppressed due to abundant supply sources, and there is no shortage expectation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of high-sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.82% at 2,518 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of low-sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.83% at 3,037 yuan/ton [1] - The crude oil price has been oscillating and rebounding recently, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has stabilized and rebounded recently. The seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers by the US may lead to an increase in fuel oil procurement demand from domestic refineries, but the supply is still abundant, and the significant increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the market [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase. The short-term market pressure may be limited due to the boost in terminal demand at the end of the year and the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel, but the valuation will continue to be suppressed due to abundant supply sources, and there is no shortage expectation [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas gasoline crack spreads are weak, reducing support from overseas gasoline blending for pure benzene. Although the peak of domestic pure benzene arrivals has passed, there is still some arrival pressure, with port inventories accumulating further at high levels this week and downstream pick - up remaining weak. Downstream operating rates are starting to recover from the bottom, with the styrene operating rate hitting the bottom and rebounding. Non - styrene downstream products such as phenol, aniline, and adipic acid have also seen an increase in operating rates, while the CPL operating rate has shown weak rebound [1][2]. - Styrene port inventories increased slightly during the week. The styrene operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and it is the end of the previous de - stocking cycle due to the off - season of downstream EPS. However, the temporary short - stop of Bohua affected the expected increase in the EB operating rate. Downstream operating rates rebounded slightly. EPS operating rate in the off - season rebounded slightly, PS operating rate rebounded after inventory reduction, and ABS operating rate continued to be at a low level due to continuous inventory pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include the relationship between pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, pure benzene's main contract basis, pure benzene's spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene's continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, as well as similar data for styrene [7][14][18]. II. Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover the naphtha processing fee, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, and various spreads and import profits of pure benzene and styrene in different regions [22][24][38]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the pure benzene inventory at the East China port, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at the East China port, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [39][42][44]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS in the styrene downstream [52][54][57]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures display the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other pure benzene downstream products, as well as the production profits of related derivatives such as PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [64][68][75]. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [3]. - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high [3]. - Cross - Variety: Short BZ2603 and long PX2605 [3].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - For the spread between MA2605 and MA2609, go long when the spread is low [4] - For the spread between LL2605 and 3*MA2605, go short when the spread is high [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory at Jiangsu ports has rapidly increased. On the one hand, the previously delayed port discharges have been gradually realized. On the other hand, the demand for inland提货 from ports has decreased after the inland market weakened. After the winter maintenance of Iranian plants was concentratedly realized, a 1.65 million - ton/year Iranian plant restarted at the beginning of the week, and the plant situation is fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the duration of the winter maintenance of Iranian plants. Although the operating rate in Iran is at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance still needs to be further realized. In terms of MTO, Ningbo Fude's MTO is under maintenance, and in January, further possible maintenance of Zhejiang's MTO plants should be monitored [2] - The coal - based methanol production has high operating pressure, and the southwest gas - based methanol plants are undergoing seasonal winter maintenance. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operating rate has rebounded from the bottom, the MTBE operating rate is still acceptable, and the formaldehyde operating rate has slightly declined [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis and Inter - period Structure - The report includes figures on methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and the price spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, etc.) [6][7][11][13] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price spreads (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [6][24][28] 3.3 Methanol Operating Rate and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) are presented in figures [6][31][37] 3.4 Regional Price Spreads - Figures show price spreads between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][34][35] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report provides figures on the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][43][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Views - For the粕类 market, the current domestic supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with a slight increase in soybean inventory and high bean meal inventory. The 05 contract price moves weakly in line with the US soybean price due to strong South American soybean production expectations. However, the relatively high import cost of US soybeans provides some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and the growth of new - season South American soybeans [2] - In the corn market, farmers are still reluctant to sell, resulting in a slow grain - selling pace. Traders are cautious in purchasing, while deep - processing enterprises'开机 is stable with a slight increase in inventory and improved purchasing willingness. Feed enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases and mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. All - link inventories are gradually rising but still below historical levels. Future focus should be on alternative grain auctions, and the corn spot price is expected to adjust [4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2760 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+1.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2352 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.34%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 320, down 32 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 270, down 12; in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 280, down 12. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 + 238, up 12 [1] - **Market Information**: As of December 23, the soybean planting progress in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 75.5%, 8 percentage points higher than a week ago, with 95.2% of sown soybeans rated normal to good and 96% of soybean farmland having sufficient/optimal moisture. The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 1.77 billion tons, higher than the previous forecast of 1.76 billion tons [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with soybean and bean meal inventories rising slightly. The 05 contract price moves weakly with the US soybean price due to South American production expectations, but the high US soybean import cost provides support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Neutral [3] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2189 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2601 contract was 2484 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C01 + 111, up 12 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS01 + 136, up 10 [3] - **Market Information**: From December 1 - 19, Brazil's corn exports were 4.426 million tons, compared with 4.266 million tons in December 2024. The daily average export volume was 295,039 tons, a 45.2% year - on - year increase. The export value was 970 million US dollars, compared with 910 million US dollars in December 2024. The average export price was 218.8 US dollars/ton, a 2.2% increase from the same period last year [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a slow grain - selling pace. On the demand side, traders' inventory rises slowly and they are cautious in purchasing. Deep - processing enterprises'开机 is stable, with a slight increase in inventory and improved purchasing willingness. Feed enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases and mostly wait and see. All - link inventories are rising but below historical levels. Future focus should be on alternative grain auctions, and the corn spot price is expected to adjust [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy - Neutral [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views - Glass market sentiment is weak, with production and sales slightly declining and prices remaining volatile; supply contraction is insufficient, demand lacks improvement, and prices are under pressure [1] - Soda ash market sentiment is also weak, with prices in a narrow - range oscillation; production is decreasing but still high, demand is stable, and inventory is being reduced, but price rebound is restricted [1] - For silicomanganese, there is a mix of long and short sentiments, with prices oscillating; production and operating rates are low, but inventory is at a high level, and cost support is weakening [3] - For ferrosilicon, prices are in a narrow - range oscillation; production has significantly decreased, inventory pressure has eased, and fundamental contradictions have been mitigated [3] Group 3: Summary by Product Categories Glass - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and the center of spot market transactions moved down. In late December, some production lines were cold - repaired, and supply contracted. Daily melting of float glass decreased this week, and manufacturer inventory increased month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production decreased slightly, supply contraction was insufficient, rigid demand lacked improvement, and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. With the Spring Festival approaching, rigid demand is expected to further decline, and high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to cold - repair situations and the impact of macro - policies on speculative demand [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. This week, production decreased month - on - month, and inventory was reduced month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production continued to decline but remained at a high level in the same period. Downstream demand was stable, and high - level inventory was being reduced, optimizing the supply - demand contradiction to some extent. However, the expected increase in float glass cold - repair plans and the launch of new soda ash production capacity restrict the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the impact of downstream demand on prices [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: After the release of the five - major steel product consumption data, there was a mix of long and short sentiments in the futures market, with prices oscillating. Spot prices were consolidating at high levels, with the northern market price ranging from 5520 - 5570 yuan/ton and the southern market price from 5620 - 5670 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Enterprises are suffering continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the production reduction is insufficient, resulting in record - high inventory. Port manganese ore inventory continued to rise, and the total manganese element inventory slightly increased, weakening cost support. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support and production changes [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and with the upcoming steel procurement, spot prices were stable. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade ferrosilicon price was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Last week, production significantly declined as enterprises actively adjusted their production rhythms to respond to the decline in demand. Inventory pressure was relieved, and fundamental contradictions were mitigated. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, cost - side changes, and regional policies [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [4]