Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port inventory has further accumulated to a historical high. In November, the arrival pressure remains high. The delayed announcement of winter maintenance in Iran is the main driver of the recent decline in methanol prices. There are now expectations of Iranian plant maintenance, and the market's expectation of the delayed implementation of Iranian winter maintenance has regained optimism [2]. - Inland inventory has rebounded again. Mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. Coal - based methanol production has further increased in November, and inland inventory has been rebuilt from a low level. Inland MTO demand has declined, and attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Traditional downstream industries are also under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the basis between methanol in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][11] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows figures on the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, among others [26][27][28] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - It includes figures on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate, the inland factory sample inventory, and the operating rate of methanol production in China [33][34][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides figures on price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, and the price difference between Taicang and southern Shandong [38][44][46] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - It shows figures on the production gross profit of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [45][50][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to be oscillating upward [7] - Arbitrage: None at present [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The actual freight - booking prices in the second half of the month are gradually being reported, and the freight rate center may rise slightly again [1] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the overall valuation support is constantly rising. Shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep freight rates at a relatively high level for the next - year long - term agreement negotiation [4] - The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [5] - The reduction of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" is conducive to promoting the recovery of Sino - US trade, which will drive the demand on the US route to pick up and support the European route prices to some extent [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of November 6, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 69,438.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 47,681.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1601.00, 1178.00, 1414.20, 1484.00, 1140.00, and 1848.20 respectively [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes of different shipping companies show price increases in the second half of November and December. For example, HPL's 11 - month second - half - month shipping schedule quote increased from 1185/1935 in the first half of November to 1935/3135, and the December first - half - month shipping schedule quote is 1935/3135 [1] - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on October 31 was 1344 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2647 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3438 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on November 3 was 1208.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1267.15 points [5] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports was 286,000 TEU, and in December, it was 322,900 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 6 TBNs in December [3] - As of October 31, 2025, 218 container ships with a total capacity of 1.784 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 67 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 1.008 million TEU) and 11 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 236,320 TEU) were delivered [6] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors: The Israeli Defense Minister instructed the Israeli army to divide the area near the Israeli - Egyptian border into a closed military zone and adjust the rules of engagement [2] - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US will also suspend the implementation of its 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. In response, China will also suspend its counter - measures against the US for one year [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The reduction of the 10% fentanyl tariff is helpful for the recovery of Sino - US trade, which will drive the demand on the US route to pick up and support the European route prices to some extent [3] - The shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rates at a relatively high level in the fourth quarter to prepare for the next - year long - term agreement negotiation [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - The LPG market has a relatively loose fundamental situation. The supply is abundant, with overseas supply remaining high in the Middle East and North America, and domestic supply slightly decreasing due to maintenance but still remaining sufficient. The demand improvement is limited, with marginal improvement in combustion - end demand and insufficient growth momentum in deep - processing demand. The weak performance of the ether - post - carbon - four market may potentially suppress the market [1]. 3. Summary of Related Content Market Analysis - On November 6, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4240 - 4370 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3630 - 4050 yuan/ton; North China market 4270 - 4450 yuan/ton; East China market 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4560 - 4730 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4070 - 4100 yuan/ton; South China market 4400 - 4460 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of December 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 538 and 537 dollars/ton respectively, down 10 and 9 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4197 and 4189 yuan/ton respectively, down 80 and 73 yuan/ton. In South China, the prices of propane and butane were 532 and 531 dollars/ton respectively, down 11 and 10 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4150 and 4143 yuan/ton respectively, down 88 and 80 yuan/ton [1]. - In the spot market, prices in East and South China rose, while other regions remained stable. Overall sales were okay, supply was abundant, and procurement was cautious. The external market price fell again, and the market continued to fluctuate weakly [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance and wait and see in the short term [2]. - Inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options: No strategies recommended [2].

Industry Overview Key Events - China-led industrial 5G international standard officially released, filling the gap in the international standard of industrial 5G [1] - The State Council approved the "Land and Space Plan for the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle (2021 - 2035)", with specific targets for cultivated land, ecological protection, urban development, and water use by 2035 [1] - In the first three quarters, the advertising business revenue of top advertising enterprises and institutions reached 1388.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. Internet advertising maintained rapid growth, with a revenue of 712.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, accounting for 81.2% of the total advertising release revenue [1] Market Conditions - **Upstream**: Prices of iron ore and rebar declined; international oil prices and liquefied natural gas prices dropped slightly [3] - **Midstream**: PX operating rate was at a high level; power plant coal consumption remained stable; asphalt operating rate increased slightly [3] - **Downstream**: Commercial housing sales in first, second, and third-tier cities continued to decline; domestic flight frequencies increased slightly, and the film box office was in the off-season [3] Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On November 6, the spot price of corn was 2152.9 yuan/ton, up 0.27% year-on-year; the spot price of eggs was 6.2 yuan/kg, up 0.81% year-on-year; the spot price of palm oil was 8760.0 yuan/ton, down 0.66% year-on-year; the spot price of cotton was 14826.2 yuan/ton, down 0.22% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.1 yuan/kg, up 1.46% year-on-year [34] - **Nonferrous Metals**: On November 6, the spot price of copper was 85936.7 yuan/ton, down 2.36% year-on-year; the spot price of zinc was 22476.0 yuan/ton, up 1.08% year-on-year; the spot price of aluminum was 21376.7 yuan/ton, up 0.90% year-on-year; the spot price of nickel was 120750.0 yuan/ton, down 1.21% year-on-year; another spot price of aluminum was 17318.8 yuan/ton, up 0.28% year-on-year [34] - **Black Metals**: On November 6, the spot price of rebar was 3133.0 yuan/ton, down 2.05% year-on-year; the spot price of iron ore was 792.2 yuan/ton, down 3.51% year-on-year; the spot price of wire rod was 3305.0 yuan/ton, down 1.78% year-on-year; the spot price of glass was 14.0 yuan/square meter, up 1.30% year-on-year [34] - **Non-metals**: On November 6, the spot price of natural rubber was 14616.7 yuan/ton, down 0.90% year-on-year; the China Plastic City price index was 776.9, down 0.08% year-on-year [34] - **Energy**: On November 6, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 59.6 US dollars/barrel, down 1.46% year-on-year; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 63.5 US dollars/barrel, down 2.16% year-on-year; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 4288.0 yuan/ton, down 1.15% year-on-year; the coal price was 824.0 yuan/ton, up 1.85% year-on-year; the spot price of PTA was 4561.1 yuan/ton, up 0.19% year-on-year [34] - **Chemicals**: On November 6, the spot price of polyethylene was 7011.7 yuan/ton, down 1.34% year-on-year; the spot price of urea was 1597.5 yuan/ton, down 1.39% year-on-year; the spot price of soda ash was 1203.6 yuan/ton, down 0.71% year-on-year; the national cement price index was 136.7, down 0.36% year-on-year [34] - **Real Estate**: On November 6, the building materials composite index was 111.8 points, down 1.55% year-on-year; the national concrete price index was 90.9 points, down 0.15% year-on-year [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - PE continues its weak pattern due to high supply, limited demand support from downstream sectors like agricultural film, and a lack of significant macro - level boosts. The cost support from oil - based production is weakening, and inventory clearance under high supply remains challenging [2]. - PP remains in a weak pattern in the short term, with its upward movement suppressed by supply - demand factors and weak cost support. However, as PDH profits are currently low, attention should be paid to upstream device production cut dynamics and macro trends [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to the plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, and PP East China basis [8][9] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit from crude oil and PE capacity utilization are presented. The PE operating rate is 82.6% (+1.7%), and the PE oil - based production profit is 288.7 yuan/ton (+41.3) [17][1][20] - PP production profit from crude oil, PDH - based PP production profit, polypropylene capacity utilization, and PP weekly output are shown. The PP operating rate is 77.8% (+0.7%), the PP oil - based production profit is - 351.3 yuan/ton (+41.3), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 121.6 yuan/ton (-46.7) [20][1][21] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures related to HD injection - LL East China, HD hollow - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, and LD East China - LL are provided [30][33] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit, LL export profit, and various price differences related to LL import and export are presented. The LL import profit is - 12.7 yuan/ton (+57.1) [45][1][53] - PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and various price differences related to PP import and export are shown. The PP import profit is - 284.1 yuan/ton (+34.1), and the PP export profit is - 7.0 dollars/ton (+1.1) [60][1][52] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, packaging film operating rate, and PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate, BOPP film operating rate, and injection molding operating rate are presented. The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.8% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.5% (+0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.5% (+0.9%) [66][1][65] - PP downstream plastic weaving production profit and BOPP production profit are also shown [72] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures related to PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, and PE port inventory are provided [77][80] - PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory are presented [86][83] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [4] - Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [4] - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4]

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17 cents to settle at $59.43 per barrel, a decline of 0.29%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 14 cents to settle at $63.38 per barrel, a decline of 0.22%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed down 1.32% at 454 yuan per barrel [1] - In October 2025, Russia's oil and gas revenues decreased by 26.6% year-on-year from 1.2118 trillion rubles (about $14.9 billion) in the same period last year to 888.6 billion rubles (about $10.9 billion), but increased by 52.6% from the previous month. From January to October, oil and gas revenues decreased by 21.4% to 7.498 trillion rubles (about $92.5 billion) [1] - Nigerian media reported that Nigeria has lost up to $300 billion due to oil theft. The Senate committee investigating the losses recommended that the government set up a special court to prosecute oil thieves and use state funds to reduce pipeline damage [1] - India's largest private refiner, Reliance Industries, is seeking to sell some Middle Eastern oil cargoes to domestic and international buyers. It bought millions of barrels of crude oil from the Middle East last month after US sanctions on Russia [1] - The CEO of energy giant Gunvor said the oil market has become more stable, and oil and gas will continue to grow. Sanctions on Russia and Iran are causing record-high oil storage on ships, preventing a global supply glut [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - There are differences in views on seaborne cargoes. According to Kpler data, more than half of the current seaborne cargo is compliant crude oil, mainly from the Middle East, the US, and Latin America. Due to high freight and demand issues, the physical premium of crude oil from West Africa and Latin America continues to decline, which may lead to a contango structure in the near-term forward curve and stimulate onshore and floating storage [2] Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish configuration in the medium term. The strategy is to buy far-month contracts and sell near-month contracts to short the Brent spread [3] Group 4: Figures - Figures include the price trend of crude oil futures, the comparison of crude oil futures and domestic refined oil prices, the comparison of crude oil futures and US Treasury yields, the comparison of crude oil futures and copper prices, the comparison of crude oil futures and gold prices, and China's refinery profits [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage strategy: Suspended [7] - Option strategy: short put [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the tight supply at the mine end and the continuously low TC prices remain unchanged. Overseas smelters are exploring new processing fee pricing logics, and China's non - ferrous metal supply association has proposed setting an upper limit on some non - ferrous metal smelting capacities. The positive factors on the demand side are mostly at the expected level, and actual consumption may not be outstanding. The November strategy is mainly to buy hedging on dips, with the buying range recommended between 85,500 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton. Selling hedging can be considered when the price approaches 89,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On November 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 85,550 yuan/ton and closed at 86,320 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 86,320 yuan/ton and closed at 85,690 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Market**: SMM's spot electrolytic copper was quoted between 85,660 and 86,330 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 30 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The market transaction briefly recovered, but overall it was still weak [2] - **Important Information**: The U.S. federal government shutdown led to the suspension of official inflation data release, causing concerns among some Fed officials about monetary policy. Some Fed officials are hesitant about further interest rate cuts due to high inflation and lack of data [3] Mining End - Kenadyr Metals Corp.'s Adelita copper - gold - silver project obtained all necessary permits and a 20 - year mining license. The first - phase exploration will start in November [4] - LundinMining's Q3 2025 production data showed copper output of 87,353 tons, gold output of 37,763 ounces, and nickel output of 2,724 tons. The company is promoting multiple growth plans to achieve its strategic goals [4] - The border between Zambia and Tanzania reopened, restoring the flow of copper - related goods on an important trade corridor [4] Smelting and Import - The U.S. Pumpkin Hollow restarted to strengthen supply - chain security, aiming to reduce the country's dependence on copper imports [5] - Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production forecast to 1.31 - 1.34 million tons but still plans to exceed last year's output. It aims to produce 1.7 million tons by 2030 [5] Consumption - Shandong Province's plan focuses on breaking through key technologies in high - performance copper alloys and other fields, and promoting the R & D and industrialization of high - end copper products [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 75 tons to 134,475 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,332 tons to 43,893 tons. On November 6, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 203,300 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous week [6] Data Table - The table shows various copper - related data such as prices, premiums, inventories, and spreads from different time points including November 7, 2025, November 6, 2025, October 31, 2025, and October 8, 2025 [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The glass market is in a situation where the supply - demand contradiction is large, with high inventory levels. Although there is some de - stocking, the long - term demand is not optimistic due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the sluggish real - estate industry. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [1][2]. - The纯碱 market also has supply - demand contradictions. High inventory continues to suppress prices, and there is a pressure to reduce inventory throughout the year. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [1][2]. - In the silicon - manganese market, the supply - side pressure has eased, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the black - goods sector in the long run [3][4]. - In the silicon - iron market, there is a pattern of high production, high inventory, and weak demand. The weak fundamental situation is difficult to reverse, and the price is expected to follow the sector in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated, and the spot price was stable with mainly rigid - demand purchases. This week, the float - glass enterprise operating rate was 75.92%, a 0.43% decrease from the previous week, and the factory inventory was 63.136 million heavy cases, a 4.03% decrease [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda - ash futures market oscillated upwards, and the downstream mainly replenished inventory at low prices. This week, the soda - ash output was 746,900 tons, a 1.41% decrease, and the inventory was 1.7142 million tons, a 0.72% increase [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction is large. Although inventory has decreased, it remains at a high level, and the market share of glass factories is squeezed by spot - futures traders. The long - term demand is not optimistic, and attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand contradiction exists. The downstream rigid demand has resilience, and supply is expected to increase further. High inventory suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and costs [1]. Strategy - Glass: Weak and volatile [2]. - Soda Ash: Weak and volatile [2]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The silicomanganese futures contract rose slightly, and the spot market oscillated. The supply - side pressure eased. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,580 - 5,620 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures contract rose slightly, and the spot market had little change. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,700 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicomanganese: The de - stocking of steel - mill inventory did not meet expectations, and the spot inventory continued to accumulate. Although production decreased, it remained at a high level, and the price is expected to follow the black - goods sector in the long run [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Enterprises have high production and high inventory, and demand is expected to weaken. The weak fundamental situation is difficult to reverse, and the price is expected to follow the sector in the short term [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to experience range - bound and weak oscillations. Supply is abundant due to the resumption of maintenance and new production capacity, while demand shows only a slight improvement in downstream开工率 with average purchasing sentiment. Exports are facing challenges such as the expected anti - dumping tax in India and weakening order volume. Inventory levels are high, and futures prices are under pressure [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda remains stable with a slight increase in the price of 50% caustic soda. Supply is increasing with the resumption of production in some plants, and demand from the alumina industry is affected by environmental control, while non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. However, the potential commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price in the next two months [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,630 yuan/ton (- 8), the East China basis is - 60 yuan/ton (- 2), and the South China basis is - 10 yuan/ton (- 2) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,570 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,620 yuan/ton (- 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+ 60), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 100 yuan/ton (- 48), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 763 yuan/ton (- 40), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 545 yuan/ton (+ 16), and the PVC export profit is 4.0 dollars/ton (+ 2.4) [1]. - Inventory and operating rate: The PVC factory inventory is 33.8 tons (+ 0.4), the PVC social inventory is 54.5 tons (- 1.0), the PVC calcium carbide - based operating rate is 80.17% (+ 3.70%), the PVC ethylene - based operating rate is 77.23% (- 1.27%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.28% (+ 2.19%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.4 tons (+ 13.9) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,343 yuan/ton (+ 40), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 157 yuan/ton (- 40) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 845.8 yuan/ton (+ 39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 73.78 yuan/ton (- 30.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 862.03 yuan/ton (- 117.20) [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.48 tons (- 2.78), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (+ 0.17), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.80% (+ 0.50%) [2]. - Downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 85.86% (- 0.41%), the dyeing and printing operating rate in East China is 68.06% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.60% (- 0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply: Maintenance has resumed this week, and new production capacity is gradually being put into production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased, but purchasing sentiment is average [3]. - Export: Exports are trading volume for price, and export orders are weakening. India is expected to impose anti - dumping taxes in November, and an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers has been launched [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is high. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, putting pressure on the futures price [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply: There are both new maintenance enterprises and production resumptions, and the operating rate is increasing. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity launch of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Orders from Shandong alumina are stable, but the operating rate of some alumina enterprises in Hebei has decreased due to environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken, but the potential commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has slightly decreased, and the national liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased this week [3]. Strategy - **PVC** - Single - side: Range - bound oscillations [4]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4]. - Inter - variety: None [4]. - **Caustic Soda** - Single - side: Range - bound oscillations [5]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: Wait - and - see; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Urea spot low - price transactions improved after manufacturers lowered prices, but the sustainability is general. With new capacity coming online, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains loose. The fourth - quarter gas - based plant maintenance is expected to start in December. This week, production and sales are in a weak balance, and urea inventories in factories have slightly increased. The news that urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of 600,000 - ton export quotas has improved the year - end export outlook, which is expected to support the spot market. Keep an eye on spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][7][8] 2. Urea Production - The report shows the weekly urea production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][23][26] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report provides information on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, and relevant price differences and export profits, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][29][32] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [42][43][44] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of Hebei urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract positions, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [47][49][51]