农产品日报 | 2025-07-03 棉价走势震荡偏强，郑糖跟随外盘小幅回落 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13805元/吨，较前一日变动+60元/吨，幅度+0.44%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15136元/吨，较前一日变动-51元/吨，现货基差CF09+1331，较前一日变动-111；3128B棉全国均价15163元/吨， 较前一日变动-49元/吨，现货基差CF09+1358，较前一日变动-109。 近期市场资讯，印度棉花协会(CAI)最新报告显示，截至2025年5月31日，CAI评估印度棉花2024/25年度棉花平衡 表，与上月评估相比产量上调17万吨，进口上调10万吨，需求下调3万吨，出口上调3万吨，期末库存上调27万吨。 与上一年度比较，期初库存增加2万吨，产量减45万吨，进口增加40万吨，国内需求调减14万吨，出口减少19万吨， 期末库存增加31万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。国际方面，USDA公布美棉新年度实播面积在1012.0万英亩，高于市场预期。目前美棉种 植基本结束，天气表现总体尚可，干旱区域面积占比持续减少，最新一周优良率也明显回升，供应 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-03 PX仍偏强，PTA基差快速下行 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 147 元/吨(环比变动-28元/吨），PTA现货加工费305元/吨（环比变动-18元/吨），主 力合约盘面加工费357元/吨（环比变动-29元/吨），当前PTA自身基本面中性，关注成本和需求支撑。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.4%（环比-0.6%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工呈现下滑趋势，但聚酯表现相对良 性，负荷表现坚挺, 短期长丝负荷预计还能维持,继续关注聚酯库存变化；短纤库存不高，虽然也有减产消息，但 实际执行力度存疑；瓶片方面，华润6.22检修20%已执行，万凯逸盛计划7月初开始检修，还涉及产能170万吨，7 月聚酯负荷预计下降至89%~90%，关注实际兑现情况。 PF方面，现货生产利润179元/吨（环比+16元/吨）。短纤现货偏紧、库存不高，PF自身基本面尚可，但下游对原料 高价位接受能力有限，大多刚需采购为主，，但需求走弱预期，关注成本端支撑。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费327元/吨(环比变动-6元/吨)，随着海运费局部略松动，部分海外客户适量补货，聚酯瓶 片工厂库存小幅下降；负荷方面，华润常州和 ...

市场分析 2025-07-02日沪镍主力合约2508开于120660元/吨，收于121220元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.69%，当日成交量为 69206手，持仓量为74763手。 沪镍主力合约2508震荡上扬，日线收阳线。08主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日基本持平，持仓量对比上个交易 日有小幅减少。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的红柱面积继续扩大，但扩大速度放缓，短周期内回调的概率在增 加。日线在6月23日的117000附近出现底背离现象，中长线上我们预估117000一线是强支撑位。现货市场方面，金 川镍早盘报价较上个交易日报价上调550元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均有所上调。近期精炼镍盘面以偏强震荡为主， 但向上的力度正在减弱，精炼镍现货成交表现一般，基本面供应过剩格局不改，但市场升贴水仍然强硬，因此现 货价对盘面下方有支撑力。其中金川镍升水变化-100元/吨至2500元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至400元/吨，镍豆 升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为21137（0.0）吨，LME镍库存为204102（216）吨。 策略 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 沪镍震荡走强，主力合约触及 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for the plastic in the polyolefin market, the unilateral strategy suggests being cautiously bearish [3]. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic factors have boosted the sentiment in the polyolefin market, leading to a slight increase in polyolefin prices. The sharp decline in international oil and propane prices has weakened the cost - side support for polyolefins. The return of previously shut - down and overhauled plants and the commissioning of new production capacity have slightly increased the supply. Although petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional maintenance season and future maintenance of existing plants will be intensive, it can only relieve some of the pressure from new supply. Upstream inventory is being depleted, but the inventory reduction of middle - stream traders is slow. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, with limited demand improvement, and the willingness of downstream buyers to replenish inventory is low [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7288元/吨（+39），PP主力合约收盘价为7072元/吨（+28）；LL华北现货为7170元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 118元/吨（-59），LL华东基差为12元/吨（-39），PP华东基差为48元/吨（-28） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为76.4%（-2.3%），PP开工率为79.3%（-0.3%）；PE油制生产利润为366.9元/吨（-11.7），PP油制生产利润为 - 53.1元/吨（-11.7），PDH制PP生产利润为253.7元/吨（-41.2） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report does not provide specific content for this part. 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 98.4元/吨（-50.2），PP进口利润为 - 537.0元/吨（-60.2），PP出口利润为28.2美元/吨（+7.4） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（+0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.0%（-1.2%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions that upstream inventory is being depleted, while the inventory reduction of middle - stream traders is slow, but no specific inventory data is provided [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the freight rate has likely been reached, as Maersk's freight rate for the first week of the second half of July remained unchanged, and MSC's freight rate for the second half of July also remained the same as the first half. It is necessary to monitor the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies, especially the PA Alliance [4]. - During the off - season, the EC2510 contract can be sold on rallies for hedging when the freight rate is falling [5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Analysis - **European Routes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 29 is 1780/2980; HPL's quotes vary for different shipping periods. MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also have their own price quotes [1]. - **US Routes**: Earlier, the supply and demand of the US routes both increased, and the supply recovered rapidly. The freight rates on the US East and West routes have fallen from their highs. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 350,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, 359,000 TEU in July, and 299,000 TEU in August. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in week 29 is 1456/1820 (compared to 4296/5360 in the first half of June), and the Shanghai - New York price in week 28 is 3625 dollars/FEU (compared to 6410 dollars/FEU in the first half of June) [2]. II. Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical events such as the Israeli air strikes in Gaza, the situation of the cease - fire agreement draft, and the US and Iran's statements may have an impact on the shipping market, but the specific impact is not elaborated in detail [2]. III. Shipping Capacity - **European Routes**: The monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base ports was 261,900 TEU in July and 269,900 TEU in August. There were 8 blank sailings in July (5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 in August (both by the OA Alliance). The decrease in capacity in July was mainly due to the skipping of Shanghai ports by MSC's ALBATROS route from week 28 to week 31, with a reduction of about 15,000 TEU of allocated shipping capacity [3]. IV. Freight Rate Analysis - **European Routes**: The freight rate top has likely emerged. Historically, the Shanghai - European base port freight rate generally peaked around week 34. In 2024, it peaked in mid - July, and there is a strong game between the August contract expectations and reality. The delivery settlement price of the EC2508 contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th [4]. V. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of July 3, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 83,654 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 63,574 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 at 1325.20, EC2604 at 1174.20, EC2506 at 1310.00, EC2508 at 1883.50, EC2510 at 1367.90, and EC2512 at 1528.00 [5][6]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 27th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2030 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2578 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 4717 dollars/FEU. On July 1st, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2123.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1619.19 points [6]. VI. Container Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [7]. VII. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The unexpected sharp decline in US ADP employment data led to a differentiated reaction in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Party Committee emphasized maintaining capital market stability as the primary task and building a system environment conducive to high - quality market development. On the day, small and medium - cap stocks showed a shrinking adjustment, with a generally controllable correction range but intensified internal differentiation [1][3] Summary by Catalog Market Analysis - Domestically, the CSRC Party Committee emphasized optimizing capital market mechanisms, protecting investors, deepening reforms, promoting opening - up, and maintaining market stability. Overseas, the US June ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, and the service industry employment had the largest decline since the pandemic [1] - In the spot market, A - share indices closed down, with technology stocks correcting. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 3454.79, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.13%. The trading volume of the two markets dropped to 1.4 trillion yuan. In June 2025, 1.65 million new A - share accounts were opened, a 5.84% increase from the previous month, and 12.6 million new accounts were opened in the first half of the year, a 32.77% increase from the same period in 2024. Overseas, US indices had mixed results [2] - In the futures market, the basis discounts of stock index futures converged to varying degrees. The trading volumes of IH and IF increased, and the IF open interest rebounded [2] Strategy - The unexpected decline in US ADP employment data led to a differentiated reaction in the US stock market. The CSRC's emphasis on market stability is conducive to the high - quality development of the market. Small and medium - cap stocks adjusted with controllable declines and intensified internal differentiation [3] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles. All data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][11][12] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on July 2, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.13%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.02%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.70%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.01% [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table of futures open interest and trading volume shows the changes in the trading volume and open interest of IH, IF, and IC. The basis table shows the changes in the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different contracts. The inter - period spread table shows the inter - period spreads and their changes for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [6][44]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating [8] Core Views - Steel: The market has strong speculative sentiment, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. Steel is entering the off - season, with no obvious changes in fundamentals and slightly better de - stocking than seasonal expectations. The inventory of rebar is gradually decreasing, and the plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient due to price advantages, and the price is oscillating at the bottom [1]. - Iron Ore: Affected by market sentiment, the price is oscillating upwards. The overall supply is increasing, and iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market sentiment is positive, and the prices are rebounding. For coke, after multiple price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: With the increase in downstream demand, the price is oscillating upwards. Some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the long term, the supply is still abundant [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3065 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. The market speculative atmosphere is strong, and the futures trading volume has increased. The spot price has risen, and the national building materials trading volume was 12500 tons yesterday [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Commodity futures are generally rising, and steel is entering the off - season. The fundamentals are stable, and de - stocking is slightly better than expected. Rebar inventory is decreasing, and the plate has strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and demand changes in the off - season [1]. - Strategy: Neutral for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Affected by market sentiment, the futures price is oscillating upwards. The price of imported iron ore has risen slightly, and the trading volume of main ports was 1.06 million tons yesterday, a 0.19% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of forward - looking spot was 1.03 million tons, a 33.12% decrease [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume has decreased, but the overall supply is increasing. Iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the iron - making water production in the off - season and industrial policies [3]. - Strategy: Oscillating for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating upwards. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1442 yuan/ton, a 3.15% increase; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 843.5 yuan/ton, a 3.18% increase. The trading atmosphere of imported coal has warmed up [5]. - Logic and Views: For coke, after price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The price is rebounding due to improved market sentiment [6]. - Strategy: Oscillating for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and the supply and output have increased. With the increase in high - temperature days, traders' bullish sentiment may persist, and some stocking demand will be released. The price in the production area fluctuates within 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the inventory is decreasing slightly, the market sentiment is positive, and the transaction price has increased, but high - price transactions are limited. The imported coal market is stable, with high - cost - performance of medium - and low - calorie coal, and active domestic bidding and restocking [8]. - Demand and Logic: In July, some coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the short term, the price is rising slightly. In the long term, the supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. - Strategy: No specific strategy [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bullish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead - acid battery consumption season is approaching, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is stimulated by rising prices with a significant "buy - on - rising" feature. The improvement of macro - sentiment and the spill - over of risk sentiment will benefit lead prices. For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, it is advisable to conduct long - hedging at dips between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On July 2, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 32.45 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,925 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price spread remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton, waste white - shell at 10,175 yuan/ton, and waste black - shell at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On July 2, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,175 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 27,524 lots, down 3,863 lots. The open interest was 51,254 lots, down 157 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,210 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,235 yuan/ton and closed at 17,270 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the afternoon close. Lead prices stopped falling briefly, downstream enterprises replenished stocks due to rigid demand, and the spot trading of primary lead improved compared to the previous day [2] Inventory - On July 2, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week. As of July 2, the LME lead inventory was 268,150 tons, a decrease of 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish. For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, long - hedging can be carried out at dips between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] Option Strategy - Sell put options at 16,500 yuan/ton [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 锌价上方持续受到供给压力 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-18.75 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨10元/吨至22290元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于105元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日持平于22250元/吨。SMM广东 锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至65元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨10元/吨至22220元/吨。 SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于35元/吨。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 期货方面：2025-07-02沪锌主力合约开于22250元/吨，收于22230元/吨，较前一交易日下跌25元/吨，全天交易日成 交128020手，较前一交易日减少50663手，全天交易日持仓129763手，较前一交易日减少4670手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22310元/吨，最低点达到22145元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.06万吨，较上周同期增加0.28万吨。截止20 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - The current spot TC price of copper concentrate remains low, but the mid-year long-term contract price signed by Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is $0/ton, which is better than the current spot price. - Due to the premium of Comex copper price, LME and domestic inventories are continuously flowing to the US market, leading to persistent squeeze pressure. Coupled with the recent increase in risk sentiment, it is favorable for copper prices. - The operation of copper varieties is recommended to focus on buying hedges on dips, with the buying range suggested between RMB 78,600/ton and RMB 79,200/ton. The option strategy is to sell put options at RMB 78,000/ton [8]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at RMB 80,620/ton and closed at RMB 80,540/ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at RMB 80,560/ton and closed at RMB 80,900/ton, up 0.35% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand. Although there is a demand for low-price purchases, the overall situation is not ideal. The supply in Changzhou is tight, and the transaction is better than that in Shanghai. It is expected that the spot premium will continue to be suppressed, but the downward space is limited [2]. - **Important Information Summary** - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, and the Challenger job - cuts reached 47,999, the lowest since December 2024. Interest rate futures almost fully price in a Fed rate cut in September. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. China's National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over RMB 300 billion for the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025 [3]. - **Mine End**: India will send geologists to Zambia for copper and cobalt exploration. Chile's Congress passed the "Investment Project Approval Acceleration Act", which is expected to shorten project approval time by 30% - 70%. Peruvian non - formal miners' roadblocks have disrupted copper transportation [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: From January to May 2025, Russia's exports of basic metals to China increased significantly, with copper exports up 66% year - on - year [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry dropped to 74.01%, and that of copper cable enterprises dropped to 70.18%. Some enterprises faced losses due to rising raw material prices and had to cut production. The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, up 29% year - on - year [6][7]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 625 tons to 93,250 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 324 tons to 25,097 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 30 was 126,100 tons, a change of - 4,000 tons from the previous week [7]. Strategy - **Copper Varieties**: Buy hedges on dips, with the buying range between RMB 78,600/ton and RMB 79,200/ton [8]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell put options at RMB 78,000/ton [8].