Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of oil has rebounded recently, and PX/PTA has followed the cost to fluctuate upwards. The demand for polyester shows signs of recovery, but the order connection is insufficient, and the market's expectation for the subsequent demand is moderately pessimistic. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in September. For PX, the fundamentals weakened in August, but the low inventory and the restart of PTA will turn it into a destocking situation again, providing support for PXN. For PTA, there is a destocking situation in the near - term, but there is a stack - up pressure in the fourth quarter. For PF, the short - term supply - demand situation is better than the raw material end. For PR, the processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly, and there is a large supply - demand pressure under the new device production expectation [1][2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The report presents figures related to the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures cover the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][26]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [28][31][33]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include the filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [48][50][60]. 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [69][73][80]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][92][95].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season is clear. With the weak US data and strong interest - rate cut expectations, the consumption at home and abroad is expected to strengthen seasonally. Pay attention to the destocking rhythm [6]. - The supply of alumina continues to increase, resulting in a surplus situation. Although the cost support is relatively strong and the further decline of the futures price is limited, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently little upward momentum [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with its price following the aluminum price. The tight supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum supports the price, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities may be affected by the activity of aluminum alloy [9]. Group 3: Key Data Summaries Aluminum - Spot prices: East China A00 aluminum price is 20950 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Central China A00 aluminum price is 20820 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21140 yuan/ton, the closing price is 21020 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - Inventory: As of September 15, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 63.7 million tons, up 1.2 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory is 75085 tons, up 2616 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory is 485275 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina - Spot prices: On September 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 3015 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2980 yuan/ton, in Henan is 3050 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 3200 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 3220 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 340 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 2916 yuan/ton, the closing price is 2935 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change of 0.44% [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On September 15, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminum is 16200 yuan/ton, the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum is 16400 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation is 20600 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 7.08 million tons, and the in - plant inventory is 6.05 million tons [4]. - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost is 20373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 27 yuan/ton [5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-16 下游需求仍偏弱 但宏观因素使铅价相对抗跌 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-15，LME铅现货升水为-41.16美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16950 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化175元 /吨至16950元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16950元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化200元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-15，沪铅主力合约开于17050元/吨，收于17160元/吨，较前一交易日变化120元/吨，全天交易 日成交58666手，较前一交易日变化-4763手，全天交易日持仓47056手，手较前一交易日变化-5132手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17205元/吨，最低点达到 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the corn market: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views - For the粕类 market, the adjustment in the September report was slightly higher than market expectations, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. Attention should be paid to the situation of new - season US soybeans. In the domestic market, although the increase in Brazilian premiums has supported soybean prices to some extent, the supply is still sufficient and downstream inventory is high. Policy changes between China and the US need to be monitored [2]. - For the corn market, on the supply side, the new - season grain supply is abundant. On the demand side, feed and deep - processing enterprises are cautious about purchasing new - season corn. The situation of new - season corn listing and acquisition needs to be focused on [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - 粕类 - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3042 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2504 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-1.07%) [1]. - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **US Department of Agriculture Report**: For the 2025/26 US soybean season, the planted area was expected to be 81.1 million acres, and the harvested area 80.3 million acres, both up 200,000 acres; the average yield per acre was 53.5 bushels, down 0.1 bushel; the production was 4.301 billion bushels, up 9 million bushels; the export forecast was 1.685 billion bushels, down 20 million bushels [1]. Market News and Important Data - Corn - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2167 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.37%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2443 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.25%) [3]. - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **US Department of Agriculture Report**: For the 2025/26 US corn season, the yield per acre was down 2.1 bushels to 186.7 bushels/acre; the planted area was up to 98.7 million acres; the production was up 72 million bushels to 16.814 billion bushels; the export volume was up 100 million bushels to a record 2.975 billion bushels; the ending inventory was down 7 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels [3]. Market Analysis - 粕类 - The bean meal futures price was weakly volatile. The adjustment in the September report was slightly higher than market expectations, causing a decline in US soybean prices. In the domestic market, the increase in Brazilian premiums supported soybean prices, but supply was sufficient and downstream inventory was high. Policy changes between China and the US need attention [2]. Market Analysis - Corn - **Supply**: Traders had little old - crop corn left, and the price of old - crop corn was firm. New - crop corn was gradually coming onto the market, and traders were trying to buy at lower prices. However, due to the demand from deep - processing enterprises, the price of new - crop corn in Heilongjiang increased slightly. New - season grain supply was abundant [4][5]. - **Demand**: Feed enterprises mainly used their inventory and were cautious about purchasing new - season corn. Deep - processing enterprises also wanted to buy at lower prices. The situation of new - season corn listing and acquisition needs to be monitored [5]. Strategies - For the粕类 market, the strategy is neutral [3]. - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-16 海外升水快速走强 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为30.17美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日0元/吨至22230元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日10元/吨至22190元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-110元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日0元/吨至22210元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-90元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-15沪锌主力合约开于22345元/吨，收于22310元/吨，较前一交易日30元/吨，全天交易日成交97830 手，全天交易日持仓92003手，日内价格最高点达到22365元/吨，最低点达到22255元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-09-15，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为16.06万吨，较上期变化0.64万吨。截止2025-09-15，LME 锌库存为50150吨，较上一交易日变化-375吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供给端增量预期不变。冶炼 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a weak recovery, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market is oscillating between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The stock market's strong performance boosts risk appetite, which suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and rising global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year growth is 8.80% with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 97.32, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 (-0.30%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1213, with a month - on - month increase of 0.005 (+0.07%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 (+0.68%); DR007 is 1.48, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 (+1.76%); R007 is 1.51, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.57, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 (+0.40%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (+0.40%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple figures are presented, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation of funds in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the net open interest proportion of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short open interest ratio of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [14][15][18][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Figures show the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the issuance of local government bonds [27]. IV. Spread Overview - Figures display the inter - delivery spread trend of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [31][36][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][40][48]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [50][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [57][59]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [64][70]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase rate rises, the price of Treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

据农业农村部监测，9月15日"农产品批发价格200指数"为117.94，比上周五下降0.37个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为118.71，比上周五下降0.45个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.88元/公斤，与上周五持平；牛肉 65.66元/公斤，与上周五持平；羊肉61.09元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；鸡蛋8.11元/公斤，比上周五上升2.0%；白 条鸡17.52元/公斤，比上周五上升0.5%。 农产品日报 | 2025-09-16 消费提振有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约13275元/吨，较前交易日变动+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.15%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.32元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH11+45，较前交易日变动-170；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.49元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH11+215，较前交易日变动-210；四川 地区外三元生猪价格12.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.18元/公斤，现货基差LH11-405，较前交易日变动-300。 市场分析 ...

油料日报 | 2025-09-16 花生需求不足，价格承压震荡 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3939.00元/吨，较前日变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.51%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+281，较前日变化+20，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.11元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝 清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.07元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22 元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥 化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货价格震荡运行，现货方面，东北地区国产新季大豆高油豆品种零星上市，预计新粮规模上市在20日 以后，当前观望情绪较浓，叠加新粮丰产预期偏强，国产豆价承压运行。 策略 中性 风险 无 花生观点 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2510合约 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - PTA and urea prices in the chemical industry have declined [2] - Egg prices in the agricultural industry have continued to rise [2] Midstream - The PX operating rate in the chemical industry has increased [3] - Coal consumption in power plants in the energy industry has increased [3] Downstream - There has been a slight improvement in the sales of commercial housing in first-tier cities in the real estate industry [4] - The number of international flights in the service industry has continued to decline [4] Key Industry Indicators (as of September 15) Agriculture - Corn spot price: 2300 yuan/ton, -0.31% year-on-year [38] - Egg spot price: 7.7 yuan/kg, 11.30% year-on-year [38] - Palm oil spot price: 9400 yuan/ton, -0.57% year-on-year [38] - Cotton spot price: 15255.7 yuan/ton, -1.05% year-on-year [38] - Average pork wholesale price: 19.9 yuan/kg, -1.09% year-on-year [38] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper spot price: 81000 yuan/ton, 1.39% year-on-year [38] - Zinc spot price: 22212 yuan/ton, 0.38% year-on-year [38] - Aluminum spot price: 21056.7 yuan/ton, 1.84% year-on-year [38] - Nickel spot price: 123533.3 yuan/ton, 0.97% year-on-year [38] Black Metals - Iron ore spot price: 808 yuan/ton, 1.58% year-on-year [38] - Wire rod spot price: 3315 yuan/ton, 0.08% year-on-year [38] - Glass spot price: 14 yuan/square meter, 0.00% year-on-year [38] Others - Natural rubber spot price: 15133.3 yuan/ton, -1.84% year-on-year [38] - China Plastic City price index: 794, -0.49% year-on-year [38] - WTI crude oil spot price: 62.7 dollars/barrel, 1.33% year-on-year [38] - Brent crude oil spot price: 67 dollars/barrel, 2.27% year-on-year [38] - Liquefied natural gas spot price: 3876 yuan/ton, -0.56% year-on-year [38] - Coal price: 775 yuan/ton, -0.51% year-on-year [38] - PTA spot price: 4631.7 yuan/ton, -1.87% year-on-year [38] - Polyethylene spot price: 7380 yuan/ton, -0.07% year-on-year [38] - Urea spot price: 1665 yuan/ton, 2.27% year-on-year [38] - Soda ash spot price: 1262.5 yuan/ton, 0.00% year-on-year [38] - National cement price index: 130.9, 0.75% year-on-year [38] - Real estate building materials composite index: 113.2 points, 0.09% year-on-year [38] - National concrete price index: 92.1 points, -0.86% year-on-year [38] Industry Events Production Industry - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued an initiative to standardize the payment of accounts payable by vehicle manufacturers to suppliers, and many car companies responded positively [1] Service Industry - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notice to deepen the reform of cross-border investment and financing foreign exchange management and improve cross-border investment and financing convenience [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: Domestic new capacity will be concentrated from August to September, domestic existing plants are operating, and the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Downstream pick-up has peaked and declined, and port inventories have also declined. However, the downstream of pure benzene is still weak, with large inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain, and the operating rates of aniline, phenol, and styrene have decreased [1][2]. - Styrene: During the peak season, the downstream pick - up volume remains at a relatively high level, and the port inventory has declined. The plant will be shut down for maintenance in the first and middle of September, and the operating rate will decline, but it will rebound in the second half of September. The operating rates of PS and EPS among the downstream have recovered well, and the operating rate of ABS has also rebounded from a low level but with large inventory pressure [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, as well as EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [8][15][17] II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea price of pure benzene and CFR Japan price of naphtha, non - integrated production profit of styrene, the difference between FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea prices of pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf and CFR China prices of pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam and CFR China prices of pure benzene, import profits of pure benzene and styrene, and the differences between FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China prices of styrene [20][23][34] III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the East China port inventory and operating rate of pure benzene, and the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate of styrene [39][41][44] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [52][55][57] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures display the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, as well as the production profits of PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][69][75] Strategies - Unilateral: None [3] - Basis and Inter - period: Do positive spreads for the EB2510 - EB2511 spread when it is low [3] - Cross - variety: Expand the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread when it is low in the short term [3]