Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices are expected to face pressure due to supply-side pressure and the potential disappointment of consumption peak season expectations, but may show a relatively weak trend even when other non-ferrous metals are strong, with caution needed regarding overseas inventory impacts [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$28.26 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 180 yuan/ton to 23,080 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 80 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 190 yuan/ton to 23,030 yuan/ton, with a premium of 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 160 yuan/ton to 23,010 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 25, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,085 yuan/ton, closed at 23,065 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 125,213 lots, and the open interest was 93,322 lots. The intraday high was 23,095 yuan/ton, and the low was 22,910 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,700 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 106,875 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventory is increasing and is about to exceed the average level of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the consumption peak season, the domestic inventory build-up is expected to continue, and the current inventory build-up is accelerating. If the consumption peak season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side pressure restricts the rebound height of the propylene market. The overall propylene production remains high, and the supply is loose. Demand recovery is limited due to cost pressure on downstream industries. Although the cost - side support has strengthened recently, the short - term rebound of the market driven by sentiment may be limited [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure involves various data such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and contract spreads (PL01 - 03, PL03 - 05). The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5772 yuan/ton (+14), the East China basis is 78 yuan/ton (-14), and the North China basis is - 260 yuan/ton (-75) [1][7][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 75% (+1%). Different production methods have different profit situations, such as PDH production, MTO production, and naphtha cracking production. The import profit is - 388 yuan/ton (+7) [1][21][24] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Different downstream products have different capacity utilization and profit changes. For example, PP powder capacity utilization is 37% (-0.20%) with a production profit of 25 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 74% (-2%) with a production profit of 372 yuan/ton (+230); etc [1] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The propylene plant - level inventory is 46010 tons (-550), and there is also data on PP powder plant - level inventory [1][68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - Lead prices are oscillating at a low level. The continuous decline in inventory and production cuts in secondary lead provide support, but the spot market is weak at the end of the year. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Hedging operations can be carried out by buying or selling within this range [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On December 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$37.81/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells increased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,325 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,215 yuan/ton and closed at 17,315 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 55,100 lots, a decrease of 12,922 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 56,328 lots, a decrease of 210 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with a high of 17,345 yuan/ton and a low of 17,205 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,265 yuan/ton, basically flat compared to the afternoon close. The SMM 1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures oscillated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. With the continuous decline of lead prices, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stockpiling at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally weak spot market [2] Inventory - On December 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 18,000 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to trade within the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton by buying or selling for hedging. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4][5]

化工日报 | 2025-12-26 EG供应回升下仍承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3818元/吨（较前一交易日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%），EG华东市场现货价 3635元/吨（较前一交易日变动+37元/吨，幅度+1.03%），EG华东现货基差-8元/吨（环比+5元/吨）. 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-94美元/吨（环比+16美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-949 元/吨（环比+97元/吨）。 风险 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副 港到港量3万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.8万吨，副港到港量2.7万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡略 累。 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，EG装置变动超预期 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着合成气制装置重启，国内乙二醇负荷再度回升至7成以上，1~2月高供应和需 求转弱下累库压力仍大，合计在50万 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-26 年底挺价意愿渐强，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11460元/吨，较前交易日变动-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.17%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.74元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+280，较前交易日变动-40；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.91元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH03+450，较前交易日变动+10；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.89元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH03+430，较前交易日变动+120。 据农业农村部监测，12月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.26，比昨天下降0.07个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.16，比昨天下降0.08个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.44元/公斤，比昨天上升0.5%；牛肉65.88 元/公斤，与昨天持平；羊肉62.76元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；鸡蛋7.32元/公斤，比昨天下降1.5%；白条鸡17.67元/ 公斤，比昨天下降1.0%。 市场分析 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-26 油脂驱动乏力，盘面震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8542.00元/吨，环比变化+54元，幅度+0.64%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7824.00 元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.77%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8981.00元/吨，环比变化+1.00元，幅度+0.01%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8500.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.24%，现货基差P05-42.00，环比变化 -34.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8190.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y05+366.00， 环比变化-80.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9630.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现货基差 OI05+649.00，环比变化+49.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(2月船期)C&F价格1124美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调22美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(4 月船期)C&F价格1058美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调29美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(1 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-26 市场预期偏弱，盘面承压运行 市场分析 1、\t12月25日地区价格：山东市场，4200-4330；东北市场，4100-4300；华北市场，4200-4350；华东市场，4250-4400； 沿江市场，4570-4880；西北市场，4100-4270；华南市场，4470-4530。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷598美元/吨，稳定，丁烷588美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4639元/吨，稳定，丁烷4562元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷591美元/吨，稳定，丁烷581美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4585元/吨，稳定，丁烷4507元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近期LPG外盘价格走势维持震荡偏强，但国内市场氛围相对平淡，昨日局部现货价格走低。其中，山东民用气与 醚后碳四市场主流成交价格继续下跌，区内民用气及醚后碳四出货欠佳，卖方降价刺激出货，下游逢低采买，带 动出货好转。整体来看，当前LPG市场驱动相对有限，多数地区醚后碳四与民用气价格呈现倒挂， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] - Arbitrage: Neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the upward breakthrough of aluminum prices faces difficulties due to the approaching off - season of consumption, increased aluminum ingot arrivals, and expanding spot discounts. In the long term, overseas power costs may lead to potential production cuts, and with low domestic inventory and expected policy easing, the downside of aluminum prices is limited [7] - The alumina spot market price is on a downward trend, with the near - month basis narrowing. The supply - surplus pattern is hard to change, and social inventory will continue to increase [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount is - 170 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,820 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 330 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,880 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount is - 265 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Aluminum Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 22,300 yuan/ton, closed at 22,275 yuan/ton, a change of 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 22,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,060 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 229,349 lots, and the position was 290,474 lots [3] Aluminum Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 617,000 tons, a change of 17,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 76,758 tons, a change of 322 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 521,050 tons, a change of 1,450 tons from the previous trading day [3] Alumina Spot Price - On December 25, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,705 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,630 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,715 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,765 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,800 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 313 US dollars/ton [3] Alumina Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,670 yuan/ton, closed at 2,646 yuan/ton, a change of - 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of - 0.71%. The highest price was 2,678 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,627 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 279,750 lots, and the position was 245,088 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 25, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,100 tons [5] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,499 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 2 yuan/ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - hand side long position on dips. Cross - variety: None. Cross - period: None. Spot - futures: None. Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The asphalt market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with local spot prices rebounding. The market is a mix of long and short factors, showing a north - south divide. The cost side support is strengthening marginally, and the northern winter storage demand is consolidating the bottom signal. However, the actual fundamentals are still weak, especially in the south where there is a large supply of low - priced resources and significant surplus pressure. The local surplus contradiction needs time to resolve, and the risk of raw material supply tightening is a potential upward driver [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25th, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 181,112 lots, down 8,923 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 162,574 lots, down 25,367 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 2,870 - 3,190 yuan/ton; South China: 2,850 - 2,950 yuan/ton; East China: 3,000 - 3,100 yuan/ton. Asphalt spot prices in North China and South China increased yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - hand side long position on dips. Cross - variety: None. Cross - period: None. Spot - futures: None. Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures on various asphalt - related data such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, weekly production, consumption in different sectors (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and refinery and social inventories [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Amid policy expectation swings, focus on high - certainty sectors like non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and make risk plans for potential market adjustments [1][4] - Suggest buying stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Chinese policies emphasize active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with multiple ministries responding. The US will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months. In November, China's foreign trade rebounded, but the economy was still under pressure. On December 25, A - share indices rose, the offshore RMB broke through 7.0 against the US dollar [1] - The Fed restarted a "restrictive" stance, buying $40 billion of short - term bonds in 30 days and cutting rates by 25 basis points. The US economic data showed a mixed picture. There are risks of macro - and fundamental resonance if market sentiment turns cold [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points. The impact of this rate hike was limited due to low foreign ownership of Japanese bonds and stable dollar - yen net long positions [3] Commodity Analysis - In the inflation - expectation game, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Non - ferrous metals have long - term supply constraints. Energy has supply - related issues, and geopolitical factors affect the market. The "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector and agricultural product procurement plans are also worth attention. For precious metals, look for buying opportunities on dips, but beware of short - term silver risks [4] Strategy - Suggest buying stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] To - do News - The Shanghai Composite Index had a 7 - day winning streak. The RMB against the US dollar reached new highs. The volume of pledged repurchase hit a new high. The US will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months [7] - Israel and Hamas had a new dispute, and Zelensky stated that Ukraine would not give up joining NATO [8]