I. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On Hold [8] - Options: Short Put [8] II. Core Viewpoints - The tight supply at the mine end and the continuously low TC prices remain unchanged. Overseas smelters are exploring new processing fee pricing logics, and the China Non - Ferrous Metals Supply Association has proposed setting upper limits on some non - ferrous metal smelting capacities. The positive factors on the demand side are mostly at the expectation level, with actual consumption not being very impressive. The November strategy is to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, and sell - hedging can be considered when the price approaches 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Key Data (1) Futures Quotes - On November 5, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 85,000 yuan/ton and closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing. The night - session main contract opened at 85,550 yuan/ton and closed at 85,900 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon closing [1]. (2) Spot Situation - According to SMM, the average spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 25 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a transaction price range of 85,190 - 85,480 yuan/ton. The copper price decline stimulated downstream point - pricing demand, but overall market transactions were still light. It is expected that the premium will stabilize today after short - term restocking [2]. (3) Important Information Summary - **Economic Data**: In the US, the ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding the expected 30,000. The overall labor demand is slowing, and salary growth is stagnant. The US ISM Services PMI in October rose 2.4 points to 52.4, a new eight - month high. In the Eurozone, the October Services PMI final value was 53%, better than the initial value of 52.6%, driving the Composite PMI to a new high since May 2023. German services recovered strongly, while French services contracted for 14 consecutive months [3]. - **Mine End**: The Canadian government plans to set up a C$2 billion (about US$1.4 billion) critical minerals sovereign fund, allocate hundreds of millions of Canadian dollars for mining expenditure, and expand exploration tax credits. The budget deficit is expected to reach C$78.3 billion by March 31, 2026. The budget is yet to be approved by Parliament [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: The US Pumpkin Hollow restarted to strengthen supply - chain security. Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production forecast to 1.31 - 1.34 million tons, but still aims to exceed last year's output. The company emphasizes the production growth of its mines and believes it won't affect the 2030 target of 1.7 million tons [5]. - **Consumption**: Yingtan City promotes the high - quality development of the copper - based new material industry cluster. China plans to build 1,000 large - scale AI data centers in the next five years [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 300 tons to 133,975 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,414 tons to 42,561 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 200,100 tons, with a change of 17,500 tons from the previous week [7]. 2. Strategy - **Copper**: The strategy is to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the recommended buying range of 85,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton. Sell - hedging can be considered when the price approaches 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [8]. - **Options**: Short put [8]. 3. Data Tables - **Price and Basis Data**: It includes spot premiums of different - grade copper, LME (0 - 3), inventory of different exchanges, warehouse receipts, LME注销仓单占比, and various spreads and arbitrage ratios [27][28][29][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, most treasury bond futures closed lower the previous day. Overall, the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral trading, with the decline of repo rates and the fluctuating prices of treasury bond futures, the 2512 contract is neutral; in the arbitrage trading, attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract; in the hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - side traders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.30%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of 0.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.30% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan or 0.79%; M2 year - on - year growth was 8.40%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points or 4.55% compared to the previous period; the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points or 1.61% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 100.16, a decrease of 0.05 or 0.05%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1310, with no change; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, an increase of 0.01 or 0.57%; DR007 was 1.44, an increase of 0.01 or 0.81%; R007 was 1.53, an increase of 0.02 or 1.49%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, a decrease of 0.01 or 0.40%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a decrease of 0.40% [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Markets - The overview includes multiple figures such as the closing price trend of the continuous main contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the trend of the settled funds of each treasury bond futures variety, the proportion of positions held in each treasury bond futures variety, the net position proportion of each treasury bond futures variety (top 20), the long - short position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety (top 20), the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [13][16][19]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - It involves figures such as the trend of Shibor interest rates, the trend of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [23][24]. 4. Spread Overview - This part contains figures showing the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures, including 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, and 2*TS - 3*TF + T, as well as the cross - term spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety [28][32][33]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures of the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [35][39][46]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures are the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It covers figures such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [55][57]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62][67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are both rated as cautiously bullish [9][10] - For arbitrage, the strategy is to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - For options, the strategy is to hold off [10] Core View - The U.S. economic data is warming up, and precious metals continue to fluctuate. The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the demand for gold investment may slightly weaken, but the logic of gold as a substitute for U.S. dollar assets remains valid in the medium to long term. Both gold and silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [2][9][10] Market Analysis - In the U.S., the ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, far exceeding the expected 30,000, and the previous month's data was revised to a decrease of 29,000. The overall labor demand is still slowing down, and wage growth remains stagnant. The ISM services PMI in October rose 2.4 points to 52.4, reaching an eight - month high [2] - In the Eurozone, the final services PMI in October was 53%, better than the preliminary value of 52.6%, pushing the composite PMI to 52.5, the highest since May 2023. Germany's service industry recovered strongly, while France's service industry contracted for 14 consecutive months [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 915.42 yuan/gram, closed at 912.26 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 916.38 yuan/gram, up 0.45% from the afternoon close [3] - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,230 yuan/kg, closed at 11,276 yuan/kg, a change of 0.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 805,726 lots, and the open interest was 244,274 lots. The night - session closed at 11,381 yuan/kg, up 0.93% from the afternoon close [3] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 5, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.159%, up 7.78 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.534%, up 2.21 BP from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On November 5, 2025, in the Au2512 contract, the long position decreased by 1,632 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 339 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 463,600 lots, a change of 2.10% from the previous trading day [5] - In the Ag2512 contract, the long position decreased by 8,927 lots, and the short position decreased by 10,617 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,390,882 lots, a change of 2.82% from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,038.63 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,168 tons, a decrease of 22 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 5, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 805.96 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 80.90, a change of - 0.70% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.60, a change of 2.10% from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On November 5, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,552 kg, a change of - 7.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 508,790 kg, a change of - 22.85% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kg [8] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish, the Au2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 900 yuan/gram - 950 yuan/gram [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, the Ag2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,100 yuan/kg - 11,600 yuan/kg [10] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: Hold off [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term upward space is limited due to factors like potential increase in hedging positions and weak downstream demand, but long - term prospects are optimistic considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption [2][3] - For sugar, the 25/26 global sugar market may be in a bear cycle with an oversupply pattern. Before the end of the year, it is expected to fluctuate, and there may be new lows next year [5][6] - For pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and the price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (+0.59%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,627 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: In the 2025/26 season, the cotton - planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil is expected to be 1.46 million hectares (21.9 million mu), a year - on - year reduction of 5.7%, while the output is expected to be 2.62 million tons, a slight increase of 2.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, but the actual purchase volume of US cotton by China is unclear. The release of key data is postponed, and the short - term upward space of the outer market is limited due to supply pressure and weak export performance [2] - Domestic: The new - year cotton market starts with low inventory, but the supply is supplemented. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, but the short - term upward space of cotton prices is limited due to potential hedging positions and weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. In the short term, there is a possibility of a callback, while in the long term, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] - Market Information: The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 season in India (excluding the amount used for ethanol production) is 34.35 million tons, and the net production (after excluding ethanol usage) is 30.95 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Supply surplus pressure has pushed the price below 15 cents. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined in the short term, the long - term rebound momentum is limited due to overall northern hemisphere production increases [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The impact of typhoons has subsided, and there is a strong expectation of domestic sugar production increase. However, the price has fallen near the production cost line, and the downward space is limited due to stricter syrup control policies [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. It is expected to fluctuate before the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5360 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton (+1.36%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Market Information: The spot price of imported wood pulp was basically stable, with only minor adjustments [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions are not good, and the overall supply pattern remains loose [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the United States and domestic demand weakness are the core factors suppressing pulp prices. During the peak season, downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core View of the Report The current market shows a situation where spot prices of lithium carbonate have slightly declined, and the futures market is oscillating. With continuous inventory reduction and a change in the basis after a significant drop in the futures price, both the spot and futures markets are supported by the consumer side. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mine production resumes, the inventory may shift from reduction to accumulation, leading to a potential decline in the futures market [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On November 5, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 78,440 yuan/ton and closed at 79,140 yuan/ton, a -0.45% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 515,731 lots, and the open interest was 453,260 lots, down from 457,374 lots the previous day. The current basis is 1,800 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,830 lots, a change of 340 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 78,700 - 82,300 yuan/ton, a -400 yuan/ton change from the previous day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 77,900 - 78,700 yuan/ton, also a -400 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 925 US dollars/ton, a -20 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Lithium salt plants are operating at a high utilization rate, with both spodumene and salt - lake production ends maintaining over 60% utilization. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November will remain at the same level as in October [1]. - **Demand**: The power market for new energy vehicles (both commercial and passenger) is growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight [1]. - **Company News**: On November 5, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. reported that its 40,000 - ton lithium salt project is in the trial - operation stage, and the annual production target of 3,000 tons is expected to be exceeded. Its subsidiary, Lan Ke Lithium Industry, has a total production capacity of about 40,000 tons after technological upgrades [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [3]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies are provided [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the zinc price correction, the spot discount was repaired, and downstream rigid demand remained. The raw material inventory days of smelters decreased, and the procurement demand for ore was strong due to winter storage needs, leading to a significant decline in TC and compressed smelting profits. The expected supply growth rate declined in November, and if TC continued to fall, supply pressure was expected to ease. The LME warehouse receipts remained at a low level, the spot premium was still high, the export window remained open, and the warehouse receipt risk was not alleviated. Domestic social inventory did not accumulate for a long time, and the accumulation amplitude was lower than expected. Micro - data gradually changed from bearish to bullish, while the macro - environment remained positive. [5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium was $138.78 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,500 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 75 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,480 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,480 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,605 yuan/ton, closed at 22,650 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day). The trading volume was 100,837 lots, and the open interest was 112,477 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,685 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,505 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 5, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 161,700 tons, a change of 300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 34,000 tons, a change of 175 tons from the previous trading day. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - EG continues its weak trend under high supply pressure. The main EG futures contract closed at 3,914 yuan/ton (+13 yuan/ton, +0.33% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,982 yuan/ton (-13 yuan/ton, -0.33% compared to the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was 71 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$57/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and that of coal-based syngas EG was -818 yuan/ton (down 94 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 562,000 tons (up 39,000 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 499,000 tons (up 16,000 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. With more arrivals planned this week, inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - Overall, on the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and domestic supply is abundant. Overseas, there are still many supply losses, and the import outlook remains unchanged. On the demand side, the downstream polyester market has moderately improved with the cooling weather, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - For trading strategies, it is advisable to cautiously short on rallies for hedging. Given high supply, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and port inventory is expected to gradually rise. An inverse spread strategy can be adopted for EG2601 - EG2605, and there is no cross-variety strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents graphs of the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and the spot basis in East China, with data sources from Longzhong and CCF [5][6]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Graphs show the gross profit of ethylene-based, coal-based syngas, naphtha-integrated, and methanol-based ethylene glycol production, as well as the total load and syngas-based load of ethylene glycol. Data sources include Flush, Longzhong, and CCF [9][13][15]. International Price Differential - A graph shows the international price differential between US FOB and Chinese CFR for ethylene glycol, with data from Longzhong [16][18]. Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Graphs display the production and sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct-spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips. Data sources are CCF [17][19][22][26]. Inventory Data - Graphs present the inventory at East China ports, Zhangjiagang Port, Ningbo Port, and other ports, as well as the inventory days of MEG raw materials at Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at East China ports. Data sources include Longzhong and CCF [28][29][32][37].

尿素日报 | 2025-11-06 供应端：截至2025-11-05，企业产能利用率80.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为157.81 万吨（+2.38），港口样本 库存量为11.00 万吨（-10.00）。 需求端：截至2025-11-05，复合肥产能利用率31.04%（+3.33%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为49.98%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.29日（-0.24）。 尿素现货在厂家下调报价后低价成交好转，持续性一般，预计短期震荡。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中，复合 肥秋季肥生产收尾，整体开工率随装置恢复有所提升，当前冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，随天气转晴，走货 情绪转好。三聚氰胺开工小幅提升，刚需采购。随着新增产能释放，中长期尿素供需仍偏宽松，四季度气头检修 预计12月逐渐开始。本周产销弱平衡，尿素厂内库存小幅累库，库存高位仍为内蒙，关注东北复合肥开工率、原 料采购节奏以及全国淡储节奏。尿素目前仍受出口情绪影响，目前尿素出口政策仍有变化，关注后续尿素出口动 态。 策略 单边：区间震荡 跨期：观望 跨品种：无 厂内库存小幅累库 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-11-05，尿素主力收 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand contradiction in the polyolefin market is prominent, with strong supply and weak demand. Both PE and PP are in a weak pattern [1][2]. - For PE, high supply, limited demand from downstream sectors like agricultural films, and weakening cost - end support lead to its continued weak trend [2]. - For PP, supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and with weak cost - end support, it will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6814元/吨（-65），PP主力合约收盘价为6491元/吨（-69）；LL华北现货为6800元/吨（-70），LL华东现货为6920元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6520元/吨（-10）；LL华北基差为-14元/吨（-5），LL华东基差为106元/吨（+35），PP华东基差为29元/吨（+59） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%），PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为247.4元/吨（-25.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 412.6元/吨（-25.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 74.9元/吨（+34.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为 - 69.8元/吨（-62.8），PP进口利润为 - 318.2元/吨（-62.5），PP出口利润为 - 8.1美元/吨（+7.8） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and new capacity coming online. Demand is limited, with the growth of agricultural film demand likely to slow down and packaging film demand being weak. The cost - end support is expected to weaken, and it will continue its weak pattern [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand contradiction persists. Supply is in excess due to new device commissioning and the return of previously maintained facilities. Demand support is limited, mainly from low - price rigid - demand restocking. It will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [3]. - **Inter - term**: Reverse arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. The supply will increase as maintenance work is completed and new production capacities come online, while the demand is moderate, and the export situation is weakening. The high inventory and futures warehouse receipts also put pressure on the price [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply is increasing as new maintenance and capacity increase co - exist. The demand from the alumina sector is stable but affected by environmental control, and non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. However, the potential new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,638 yuan/ton (-32), with an East China basis of -58 yuan/ton (+12) and a South China basis of -8 yuan/ton (+2) [1]. - Spot price: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,580 yuan/ton (-20), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,630 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 740 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -763 yuan/ton (-40), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -545 yuan/ton (+16), and the PVC export profit is 1.6 US dollars/ton (+1.1) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: PVC factory inventory is 33.8 tons (+0.4), social inventory is 54.5 tons (-1.0), the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 76.47% (+4.82%), the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.50% (-0.06%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.09% (+3.35%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 77.4 tons (+13.9) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,303 yuan/ton (-33), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 197 yuan/ton (+33) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 806.6 yuan/ton (+80.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 103.78 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 979.23 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.26 tons (+2.83), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.73 tons (+0.28), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.30% (+3.50%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 85.86% (-0.41%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 68.06% (+0.75%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.66% (+1.05%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply: Maintenance work has been completed this week, and new production capacities are gradually reaching full production. The supply is expected to be abundant [3]. - Demand: The downstream operation rate has increased, but the purchasing sentiment is average. Exports are relying on price cuts, and the export orders are weakening [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute inventory level is high. The high - level futures warehouse receipts also put pressure on the price [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply: New maintenance and capacity increase co - exist, and the operation rate is rising. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Orders from alumina in Shandong are stable, but the operation rate of alumina in Hebei has decreased slightly due to environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased slightly [3]. Strategy - **PVC** - Single - side trading: Fluctuate in a wide range. Consider positive arbitrage between futures and spot [4]. - Inter - period trading: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy [4]. - **Caustic Soda** - Single - side trading: Fluctuate within a range [5]. - Inter - period trading: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy [5].