Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Spot water further expands, downstream high - price fear leads to rigid demand restocking. Under the consumption recovery and domestic supply pressure, the spot water expands compared to the off - season. There is a contradiction between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventory is decreasing while domestic inventory is increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, but overseas factors support the price [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content a) Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $23.01/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,180 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 105 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On September 11, 2025, the opening price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,205 yuan/ton, the closing price is 22,250 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 93,321 lots, and the open interest is 100,442 lots. The highest price is 22,285 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 22,145 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 154,200 tons, with a change of 2,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 50,625 tons, with a change of - 200 tons from the previous trading day [3]. b) Market Analysis - Spot water expands, downstream restocks due to rigid demand. There is a contradiction between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventory is decreasing and there is a risk of cornering the market, while domestic inventory is increasing and the supply pressure is high. In August, zinc ingot production increased by 28% year - on - year [4]. c) Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [5]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.47% at 2,802 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.53% at 3,373 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are in a range-bound oscillation, with geopolitical risks remaining due to the volatile situations in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. However, with OPEC's continuous production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to loosen after the peak season, so the short-term direction of oil prices is unclear, providing limited guidance for fuel oil prices [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the stage of market rebalancing, with current mixed long and short factors. The near-term supply is relatively abundant, and Singapore's inventory is at a high level. As summer ends, demand in the Middle East is expected to decline, but there is still room for export growth. Short-term market contradictions are limited, and high inventories need to be digested. If cracking callbacks stimulate refinery demand, the market will gain new support [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, current market contradictions are limited. Domestic production has increased but remains at a low level. The external market spread structure has weakened marginally, and downstream marine fuel demand is average. With the cracking spread at a medium to low level, the downward space is limited. In the medium term, it still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and excess capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [1] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, downward in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, downward in the medium term [2] - No strategy for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, or options [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]

FICC日报 | 2025-09-12 科技股爆发，股指大涨 市场分析 美国通胀温和降温。国内方面，国务院批复同意，在北京城市副中心、江苏苏南重点城市等10个地区展开要素市 场化配置综合改革试点。此次开展的要素市场化改革为期两年，既涉及土地、劳动力、资本等传统要素，还涉及 技术、数据等创新要素，将着力破除阻碍要素自由流动和高效配置的体制机制障碍。海外方面，美国劳工统计局 公布最新数据，美国8月CPI同比2.9%，持平预期；CPI环比0.4%，略高于预期的0.3%；核心CPI同比3.1%，环比0.3%， 均持平预期和前值。美国上周初请失业金人数增加2.7万人至26.3万人，创2021年10月以来的最高。 股指上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数强势上涨，沪指涨1.65%收于3875.31点，创业板指涨5.15%。行业方面，板块 指数全部收红，通信、电子、计算机、农林牧渔行业涨幅居前，纺织服饰、石油石化、社会服务行业涨幅有限。 当日沪深两市成交金额上升至2,4万亿元。海外方面，美股三大股指齐创历史新高，道指涨1.36%报46108.00点。 期指活跃度提升。期货市场，基差方面，当日股指期货基差大幅上升。成交持仓方面，股指 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The market is still waiting for Trump's next move regarding Russia. The EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia is impending, and there are expectations of an increase in Russian oil exports after refinery attacks. The oil market is influenced by multiple factors including sanctions, OPEC+ production decisions, and inventory levels [1][2] 3. Summary by Section Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the October - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures price dropped $1.30 to $62.37 per barrel, a 2.04% decline; the November - delivery Brent crude oil futures price in London fell $1.12 to $66.37 per barrel, a 1.66% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.45% at 482 yuan per barrel [1] - The European Central Bank forecasts oil prices to be $69.7 per barrel in 2025, $65.1 in 2026, and $65.1 in 2027 [1] - OPEC's monthly report maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day [1] - The IEA reported that Russia's August crude oil and petroleum product sales revenue dropped to one of the lowest levels since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Due to factors like export decline and price discounts, Russia's August oil revenue decreased by $920 million to $13.51 billion compared to July. Oil and fuel exports dropped by 70,000 barrels per day to 7.3 million barrels per day, with crude exports down 30,000 barrels per day and refined product exports down 40,000 barrels per day. Crude production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels per day, meeting OPEC+ quota requirements [1] - The IEA raised the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and the demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. The oil market is affected by potential supply losses from new sanctions and OPEC+ production increases along with growing global oil inventories [1] Investment Logic - The market focus is on Russia. The EU's 19th - round sanctions on Russia are coming, and after Russian refinery attacks, Russian oil exports from western ports may increase by 200,000 barrels per day. The market is observing Trump's next move [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The short - term consumption side of the lithium carbonate market still has support, with the current consumption peak season and downstream rigid procurement needs. The market in September shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and there may be a temporary supply shortage. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate, and may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 70,960 yuan/ton and closed at 71,000 yuan/ton, with a 1.25% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 426,041 lots, and the open interest was 323,456 lots (the previous day's open interest was 340,814 lots). The current basis is 2,130 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,391 lots, a change of 290 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 71,000 - 74,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 70,000 - 71,200 yuan/ton, also a change of - 600 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories' price - setting and trading enthusiasm are still relatively high. As it is the industry's peak demand season, downstream material factories have rigid procurement needs and strong procurement willingness at relatively low prices [1] - Lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lithium mica has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and a temporary supply shortage is expected [1] - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons. The outputs from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes all increased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. The downstream inventory continued to increase, while the inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased significantly, and the downstream restocking willingness is good [2] Strategy - The futures market fluctuates in the short term. With the weakening of mine - end disturbances, the peak consumption season provides some support. The short - term supply - demand pattern is good, and the inventory continues to decline, providing some support to the market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term and may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [3] Trading Recommendations - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and sell - hedging can be carried out on rallies [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5]

油脂日报 | 2025-09-12 USDA报告发布在即，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9330.00元/吨，环比变化+86元，幅度+0.93%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8336.00 元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.97%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9893.00元/吨，环比变化+123.00元，幅度+1.26%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9160.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.19%，现货基差P01+-170.00，环比变 化-196.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8440.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y01+104.00， 环比变化-100.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10090.00元/吨，环比变化+120.00元，幅度+1.20%，现货基差 OI01+197.00，环比变化-3.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，巴西地理与统计研究所（IBGE）在一份报告中称，预计巴西2025年大豆种植面 积为4766.6743万公顷，较上个月预估值上调3.5%，较上年种植面积增加0.2%，大豆产 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [1] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Core Views - The steel market shows continuous inventory accumulation, and steel prices are oscillating. The glass and soda ash markets have inventory changes, and prices are also oscillating. The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, production area losses, and electricity prices, with prices oscillating [1][2][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated. The main 2601 contract rose 0.51%. The weekly start - up rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, up 0.1% month - on - month, and the factory inventory was 61.583 million heavy cases, down 1.467 million heavy cases month - on - month. There is still a supply - demand contradiction, and short - term premium suppresses prices [1] - Soda Ash: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated upward. The main 2601 contract rose 1.26%. The production capacity utilization rate was 87.29%, up 1.07% month - on - month, the output was 761,100 tons, up 9,300 tons month - on - month, and the inventory was 1.7975 million tons, down 24,600 tons month - on - month. High production and new capacity in the fourth quarter, along with premium, suppress prices [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [1] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - Silicomanganese: Yesterday, the main contract of silicomanganese futures closed at 5,838 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot market was stable with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The supply - demand in the industry is still loose, but there are long - term losses in production areas and low manganese ore inventory. Prices follow the sector [2] - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5,626 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot market sentiment was average. The supply - demand in the industry is loose, with long - term losses in production areas and high factory inventory suppressing prices [2] - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of copper is rated as cautiously bullish, and the recommended strategies are long-short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets and calendar spread arbitrage [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, there are certain disturbances in electrolytic copper production, and the pattern of persistently low TC prices is difficult to change. Meanwhile, demand is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly adopt the strategy of buying on dips for hedging. Considering the "Golden September and Silver October" period and relatively low domestic warehouse receipts, the near - month contracts may rise again, so it is not advisable to establish short positions in domestic near - month contracts for arbitrage trading [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,950 yuan/ton and closed at 80,130 yuan/ton, a 0.43% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 80,160 yuan/ton and closed at 80,490 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close of the same day [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper stabilized and rebounded. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,110 - 80,240 yuan/ton, with a premium of 85 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan) over the main contract. The import loss widened to 500 yuan/ton. Due to reduced circulating supply and a 0.12 - thousand - ton inventory decline in Shanghai, the sales pressure eased, and the spot trading sentiment improved. It is expected that the spot premium will remain firm [2]. Important Information Summary - **Economic Data**: The US CPI annual rate in August was 2.9%, the largest increase in 7 months. The monthly rate was 0.4%, the highest since January and higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate was 3.1%, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 6 was 263,000, the highest since the week of October 23, 2021, higher than the market expectation of 235,000. The probability of a 25 - BP interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting was 93.9%, and the probability of a 50 - BP cut was 6.1% [3]. - **Mine End**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals Ltd. about restarting the closed Cobre Panamá copper mine, with discussions expected to start at the end of this year or early 2026. A comprehensive environmental audit of the mine will start in the coming weeks, which will take three to four months to complete [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year to 228,007 tons. In the first seven months of 2025, Peru's copper production was about 1.56 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [4]. - **Consumption**: In August 2025, the domestic output of electrolytic copper foil was 103,600 tons, a 1.97% month - on - month increase. It is expected that in September, the copper foil market will enter the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" period, with prices expected to stabilize and gradually recover. The seasonal stocking demand in the downstream power battery and consumer electronics sectors is expected to increase, which may drive up orders for lithium - ion copper foil and electronic circuit copper foil [4]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 154,175 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 902 tons to 20,028 tons. On September 11, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 144,300 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous week [4]. Strategy - **Absolute Price**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to mainly buy on dips for hedging. - **Arbitrage**: Long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets and calendar spread arbitrage [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - PVC: The PVC market fluctuates mainly with macro - sentiment. The supply is abundant as domestic PVC device overhauls decrease and new production devices increase. Downstream demand remains weak, with low - level开工 of downstream products and mainly rigid - demand procurement. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak due to Indian policies. Social inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price from hedging [3]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply from chlor - alkali enterprises is at a relatively high level. The main downstream in Shandong, alumina factories, has stable purchase prices and increasing delivery volumes. Non - aluminum downstream industries have increased开工, with rigid - demand procurement. Cost support remains, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary according to Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4888 yuan/ton (+31), the East China basis is - 218 yuan/ton (- 11), and the South China basis is - 128 yuan/ton (- 31) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4760 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 14 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 421 yuan/ton (- 22), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 671 yuan/ton (- 43), and the PVC export profit is 9.7 dollars/ton (- 5.0) [1]. - Inventory and开工: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.6 tons (+0.4), the social inventory is 53.3 tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 80.29% (+2.64%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 77.20% (+4.61%), and the overall PVC开工 rate is 79.39% (+3.21%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.1 tons (- 2.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2590 yuan/ton (+14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 129 yuan/ton (- 14) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 824.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 532.53 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 35.68 tons (- 3.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 83.40% (- 0.80%) [2]. - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 84.38% (- 1.20%), the dyeing开工 rate in East China is 65.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 87.77% (+0.67%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: The number of domestic PVC device overhauls continues to decrease, and new production devices are increasing, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream product开工 remains low, with enterprises purchasing only for rigid - demand. The raw material restocking willingness during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season needs attention. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak due to Indian policies [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of PVC continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high. The futures warehouse receipts are increasing, and there is pressure on the futures price from hedging [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The开工 rate of chlor - alkali enterprises is slightly increasing and at a high level in the same period [3]. - Demand: The main downstream in Shandong, alumina factories, has stable purchase prices and increasing delivery volumes. Non - aluminum downstream industries have increased开工, with rigid - demand procurement. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3]. - Cost and profit: The electricity price in Shandong has a slight increase in September, and there is some resistance from downstream after the reduction of liquid chlorine subsidies. It is expected that liquid chlorine subsidies will continue to increase, and cost support remains. The chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment - Inter - delivery: Long V01 and short V05 to capture price fluctuations - Inter - variety: No strategy Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [3] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Views - Apple: The price of apple futures rose yesterday with active trading in the early-ripening Fuji market. As late-ripening Fuji is approaching harvest, attention should be paid to its quality. The sales of high-quality stored apples have slightly improved with stable and firm prices, and the demand for festival stocking in the sales areas is emerging. The overall de-stocking speed of stored apples is still average, and the short-term market is expected to run stably [1][2][3] - Red dates: The price of red date futures rose yesterday. There is a strong expectation of a reduction in the new-season jujube production, but the reduction amplitude may be small compared to previous years. The demand for festival stocking is gradually being released, but the overall trading volume is average. The inventory of red dates is much higher than that of the same period last year. The prices of red date futures and spot goods are in a high-level oscillation state after the increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in the main production areas on the quality of new-season jujube fruits and the demand for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stocking [4][7][8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,252 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton or 1.50% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second-grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi-commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11,225 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton or 1.72% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price closed higher. The early-ripening Fuji market had active transactions. As late-ripening Fuji is approaching harvest, attention should be paid to its quality. The sales of high-quality stored apples have slightly improved with stable and firm prices, and the demand for festival stocking in the sales areas is emerging. Last week, there were prominent quality problems with early-ripening Gala in the western region, such as poor coloring and small fruit size. The prices of high-quality goods were significantly higher than those of the same period last year, and the profit of some merchants purchasing high-quality Gala was low. The cold storage inventory in the Shandong production area was mainly for the rigid demand replenishment of merchants, and the price of the stored goods continued to decline. The early-ripening varieties in the Shandong production area, such as Luli, Jindu Red, Huashuo, and Meiba, were gradually listed for trading, with a small overall volume, and the prices followed the expected pattern of high opening and low closing. The remaining inventory of apples in the Shaanxi production area was limited and gradually entered the later stage. Affected by the quality of early-ripening apples, merchants turned to the stored goods in the warehouse, and the price of high-quality stored goods increased. In the sales area market, the wholesale price was stable with obvious polarization. After the early-ripening apples were listed, the number of trucks arriving at the market increased slightly compared with the previous off-season, still mainly Fuji apples, with an increase in early-ripening Gala. The sales of early-ripening apples were okay, but the profit of merchants was average, the terminal sales speed was not fast, the digestion speed of high-quality goods was okay, and the digestion of poor-quality goods was slow [1][2] Red dates - The price of red date futures rose yesterday. There is a strong expectation of a reduction in the new-season jujube production, but the reduction amplitude may be small compared to previous years. The demand for festival stocking is gradually being released, but the overall trading volume is average. The inventory of red dates is much higher than that of the same period last year. In the 2024 production season, the production of red dates was large with high inventory but poor quality. The de-stocking slope of the inventory of 36 sample points was gentler compared to recent years. There is an over - exhaustion problem with the new-season jujube trees, and the estimated new-season production is 56 - 62 tons, with a strong expectation of a reduction. After entering the sugar - increasing period, the growth situation has not shown unexpected changes. The spot price in the sales area market is firm, but the trading volume has decreased, and the demand shows signs of weakness with light trading. Therefore, the prices of red date futures and spot goods are in a high - level oscillation state after the increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in the main production areas on the quality of new - season jujube fruits. If the subsequent dynamic production assessment is lower than the current expectation, the upward trend of red dates may continue. At the same time, attention should be paid to the demand for Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking [4][7] Strategies - Apple: Maintain a neutral stance. Although the sales of stored apples have improved, the overall de - stocking speed is still average. The short - term market is expected to run stably [3] - Red dates: Maintain a neutral stance. Without disproving the reduction in production, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, due to the continuously high inventory of old dates, attention should be paid to the final production of new dates. If the reduction amplitude is less than expected, the red date price may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [8]