Hua Tai Qi Huo
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关注上游价格分化,中游开工淡季
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:51
Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on the differentiation of upstream prices and the off - season of mid - stream operations, presenting the latest developments in the production and service industries, as well as the trends in upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors [1][3][4][5]. Summary by Section 1. Middle - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The Ministry of Transport plans to launch a special action to improve and upgrade highway service areas next year, with the primary task of enhancing charging service capabilities and promoting the construction and renovation of charging facilities [1]. - **Service Industry**: Beijing relaxes non - Beijing household purchase conditions and supports multi - child family housing needs; the central bank conducts 400 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan this month, and has increased MLF operations for 10 consecutive months [2]. 2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International crude oil prices have recently declined, and liquefied natural gas prices continue to fall; PTA prices have risen significantly, while polyethylene prices have slightly declined [3]. - **Mid - stream**: Chemical product operating rates remain low, power plant coal consumption has increased, and asphalt operating rates for infrastructure have declined [4]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities continue to pick up, while the number of domestic flights has decreased [5]. 3. Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On December 24, the spot price of corn was 2,241.4 yuan/ton (- 0.19% year - on - year), eggs were 6.3 yuan/kg (- 4.26% year - on - year), palm oil was 8,520 yuan/ton (0.71% year - on - year), cotton was 15,217.5 yuan/ton (0.50% year - on - year), and pork was 17.4 yuan/kg (- 0.91% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On December 24, the spot price of copper was 94,853.3 yuan/ton (2.88% year - on - year), zinc was 23,250 yuan/ton (1.14% year - on - year), aluminum was 21,883.3 yuan/ton (0.57% year - on - year), nickel was 130,800 yuan/ton (11.92% year - on - year), and the second - listed aluminum was 17,118.8 yuan/ton (1.86% year - on - year), and rebar was 3,229.3 yuan/ton (0.81% year - on - year) [39]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On December 24, the spot price of iron ore was 810.6 yuan/ton (1.08% year - on - year), wire rod was 3,475 yuan/ton (1.83% year - on - year), and glass was 13.3 yuan/square meter (- 0.75% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - metals**: On December 24, the spot price of natural rubber was 14,983.3 yuan/ton (- 0.77% year - on - year), the China Plastic City price index was 756 (- 0.07% year - on - year) [39]. - **Energy**: On December 24, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 58.4 US dollars/barrel (5.90% year - on - year), Brent crude oil was 62.4 US dollars/barrel (5.87% year - on - year), liquefied natural gas was 3,424 yuan/ton (- 5.47% year - on - year), coal was 802 yuan/ton (- 0.37% year - on - year) [39]. - **Chemical Industry**: On December 24, the spot price of PTA was 4,970.5 yuan/ton (7.44% year - on - year), polyethylene was 6,430 yuan/ton (- 2.82% year - on - year), urea was 1,755 yuan/ton (2.33% year - on - year), and soda ash was 1,225.7 yuan/ton (0.23% year - on - year) [39]. - **Real Estate**: On December 11, the building materials composite index was 115.1 points (- 0.68% year - on - year), and the national concrete price index was 90.4 points (- 0.06% year - on - year) [39].
工业硅持续反弹,多晶硅震荡上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, after the production cut in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. The price of the industrial silicon market is mainly affected by the supply - demand pattern and cost support, showing a slight upward trend. The current valuation is low, and with the influence of Xinjiang's environmental protection policy, the market may have room to rise [1][3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation has recently eased. Silicon material enterprises are reducing production to match the off - season demand in the first quarter, which drives up the unit comprehensive cost. The market is affected by both the anti - involution policy and the weak reality. After the establishment of the platform company, the subsequent production and sales restrictions need to be monitored. The market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On December 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a fluctuating upward trend. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,600 yuan/ton and closed at 8,780 yuan/ton, a change of 145 yuan/ton (1.68%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 213,776 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 23 was 9,175 lots, a change of 156 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton), and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton). The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of - 1.43% from the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 138,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory (including the part not registered as warehouse receipts and the spot warehouse) was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - **Organosilicon**: The quoted price of organosilicon DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. The weekly production of organosilicon fluctuated slightly compared with the previous week. In early December, monomer factories successively reduced production, and the production in December decreased compared with November. The reduction in industrial silicon consumption in December may be around 5,000 tons [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly production of polysilicon was basically stable. The planned production in December was around 114,000 tons, a slight decrease from November, and the change in the demand for industrial silicon was limited [2]. - **Aluminum - Silicon Alloy**: The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that had reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - reduction state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate was expected to be mainly stable and weak [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation. - **Others**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On December 24, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated upward, opening at 58,580 yuan/ton and closing at 59,225 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 0.91% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 131,603 lots (134,949 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 153,313 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [3]. - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 293,000 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00%; the silicon wafer inventory was 21.50 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 7.73%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month change of - 0.40%; the silicon wafer production was 10.67 GW, a month - on - month change of - 12.18% [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. - **Others**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [6].
农产品日报:消费有所支撑,猪价维持震荡-20251225
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:50
农产品日报 | 2025-12-25 消费有所支撑,猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11480元/吨,较前交易日变动+65.00元/吨,幅度+0.57%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.80元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.12元/公斤,现货基差 LH03+320,较前交易日变动+55;江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.92元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.06元/公斤,现货基差LH03+440,较前交易日变动-5;四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.79元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤,现货基差LH03+310,较前交易日变动+45。 据农业农村部监测,12月24日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.33,比昨天下降0.19个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.24,比昨天下降0.22个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.35元/公斤,比昨天下降1.0%;牛肉65.86 元/公斤,比昨天下降0.2%;羊肉63.16元/公斤,比昨天上升0.1%;鸡蛋7.43元/公斤,比昨天下降0.7%;白条鸡17.85 元/公斤,比昨天下降0.6%。 市场分析 ...
情绪持续发酵,镍不锈钢反弹延续
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, influenced by Indonesian policy changes, the bullish sentiment is high, and nickel prices are expected to maintain an overall rebound trend. However, high inventory and oversupply in the fundamentals will drag down the rebound strength [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although the weak supply - demand situation has not changed fundamentally, short - term cost support and technical strength provide price resilience. Investors should pay attention to the implementation progress of Indonesian policies and inventory changes to seize the opportunity of oscillating upward [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 24, 2025, the main contract 2602 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,280 yuan/ton and closed at 123,440 yuan/ton, a 3.92% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 386,986 (+190,610) lots, and the open interest was 134,454 (+21,822) lots. It showed a strong and volatile trend with significant capital inflow, driven by the expectation of Indonesian quota contraction and external market, but restricted by high inventory and differences between long and short positions. The continuous weakening of the US dollar increased the attractiveness of commodities, while weak consumption and high inventory limited the rebound strength [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable overall. In China's southern region, 1.3% nickel ore was traded at CIF $39.5. In the Philippines, the 1.3% nickel ore tender at the northern Benguet mine was settled at FOB $33.5, with a price increase. Considering rainfall, the shipping efficiency was fair. Downstream iron plants were still in losses, and their attitude of pressing prices for raw material nickel ore purchases might ease. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in December dropped by $0.11 - $0.18 per wet ton, and the current mainstream premium was +25, with a premium range of +25 - 26, expected to remain flat [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 133,800 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Nickel prices rose significantly, and spot trading was weak. The spot premiums of refined nickel brands decreased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 6,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,621 (-301) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,604 (+216) tons [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range operations [4]. - **Inter - delivery**: None [4]. - **Inter - variety**: None [4]. - **Futures - spot**: None [4]. - **Options**: None [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 24, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,990 (-497) lots, and the open interest was 100,771 (-4,171) lots. It showed a mild rebound with increasing volume and price, and the fluctuation was relatively stable, consistent with the strong continuation of Shanghai nickel's sharp rise the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The futures market weakened, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, mainly purchasing on - demand. Inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 (+75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,025 (+75) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 100 - 350 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 4.00 yuan/nickel point to 893.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Buy on dips [6]. - **Inter - delivery**: None [6]. - **Inter - variety**: None [6]. - **Futures - spot**: None [6]. - **Options**: None [6].
黑色建材日报:市场情绪不振,钢价区间震荡-20251225
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but there are still expectations of seasonal decline in demand. The high inventory of plates continues to suppress price performance [1]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with prices fluctuating narrowly. The supply of iron ore is relatively sufficient, but due to reduced liquidity of some port supplies, the price remains high. The demand for iron ore is marginally weakening, and there will be downward pressure on prices if port supply liquidity recovers [3]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is in a weak balance, and prices are maintaining an oscillating trend. After the third round of price cuts for coke, the supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the price is still under pressure. The supply of coking coal is tightening, but demand is insufficient, and the fundamentals are weak [5][6]. - The price of thermal coal in the production area has stopped falling and stabilized, while the port price is continuously declining. Near the end of the month, the supply is shrinking, demand is stable, and the price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is still loose [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures oscillated, and according to Steel Valley data, steel inventory decreased yesterday, with hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing faster and demand rising. Building material inventory decline converged, and demand slightly decreased [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of building materials are improving, with off - season consumption maintaining resilience, a slight increase in production, and continuous decline in inventory. With cooling, there are expectations of seasonal decline in demand. Plate production declined, consumption and exports slightly decreased but remained resilient. High inventory continued to suppress plate prices, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar weakened [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1.288 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.51%. The cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 835,000 tons (10 transactions), a month - on - month decrease of 14.80% [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is accumulating, the price remains relatively high, and the supply is relatively sufficient. However, due to reduced liquidity of some port supplies, the price remains high. Some steel mills are reducing production to relieve restocking pressure, and short - term restocking willingness is insufficient. If port supply liquidity recovers, the price will face downward pressure [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated. Some steel mills controlled coke purchases, providing weak support for coke. Some coking coal varieties with inventory pressure saw prices drop by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and overall transactions were average. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port for imported Mongolian coal remained high, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was weakly stable at around 960 - 980 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply - demand and logic: After the third - round price cut for coke, production increased slightly, and pig iron production remained low. The short - term supply - demand of coke was in a weak balance, and the price was still under pressure. The supply of coking coal tightened as some coal mines completed their annual tasks and stopped or reduced production, but downstream demand was insufficient, and the fundamentals were weak [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation; Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, coal prices oscillated. Some coal mines stopped or reduced production after completing annual tasks, and the supply tightened. The market maintained rigid procurement, and the sales of some cost - effective coal mines improved slightly, with a few coal types slightly increasing in price. At the port, the market was still weak. Some rigid demand and short - covering inquiries near the end of the month increased slightly, and the pessimistic sentiment eased slightly. The actual procurement by downstream power plants and end - users was still weak, and short - term prices were weak. The imported coal market was stable, with the demand for medium - and high - calorie coal average and prices weakly stable. The demand for low - calorie coal increased, and quotes rose slightly [8]. - Supply - demand and logic: Near the end of the month, the supply contracted, demand was stable, and the price oscillated. In the long - term, the supply was still in a loose pattern [8]. Strategy - Not provided in the content
市场情绪不振,钢价区间震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:30
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is low, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. Glass prices are oscillating upward with increased production line maintenance, while soda ash prices are oscillating narrowly. The sentiment of waiting and seeing is growing for ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese, and their alloy prices are consolidating [1][3]. - For glass, the supply is contracting due to cold - repairs in some production lines in late December, but the supply contraction is insufficient, the rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is still an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory also suppresses prices. For soda ash, although production has declined, it is still at a relatively high level, and with new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand [1]. - For ferrosilicon manganese, enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. The cost support has weakened. For ferrosilicon, production decreased significantly last week, inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: Futures oscillated upward yesterday, while the market transaction center of spot goods moved downward, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on demand. Some production lines are expected to undergo cold - repairs in late December, leading to a contraction in glass supply [1]. - Soda Ash: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and downstream buyers showed strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, mainly purchasing for rigid demand [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Production is oscillating at a high level, the supply contraction is insufficient, rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to glass cold - repair situations and the impact of macro - policies on speculative demand [1]. - Soda Ash: Production has declined but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. With new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand situations [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and spot prices were consolidating at a high level. Steel tenders are ongoing, with prices in the northern market ranging from 5,520 - 5,570 yuan/ton and in the southern market from 5,620 - 5,670 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Futures maintained narrow - range oscillations yesterday. Steel tenders are imminent, and spot prices are stable. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. Port manganese ore inventories continue to rise, and the total manganese element inventory has slightly increased, weakening the cost support. Attention should be paid to cost support and production changes [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Production decreased significantly last week as enterprises actively adjusted their production rhythms to cope with declining demand. Inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, cost - end changes, and regional policies [3]. Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4]
轮动继续,股指震荡收涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 06:38
Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US GDP growth rate in Q3 significantly exceeded market expectations, boosting global market confidence and driving the three major US stock indexes to rise for four consecutive days [1][2] - Domestically, the market continues its recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the central area of the box-shaped oscillation. The current market still shows the characteristic of sector rotation, and trading mainlines may gradually emerge [2] Summary by Directory Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the US Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A-share style trends [6][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on December 23, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07% to 3919.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.41%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.20%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.24%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.02%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.22% [13] - The charts also show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures show that the trading volume of IF decreased by 789 to 92029, IH increased by 817 to 37812, IC decreased by 7094 to 96094, and IM decreased by 1632 to 144993; the open interest of IF increased by 7033 to 270424, IH decreased by 761 to 82828, IC decreased by 1024 to 255760, and IM increased by 2002 to 351928 [15] - The basis of stock index futures shows that the basis of IC and IM was slightly repaired [1] - The inter - delivery spread of stock index futures is also presented in the report [40][41][42]
华泰期货股指期权日报-20251224
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 06:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily market situation of stock index options on December 23, 2025, covering option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data of various stock index options [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On December 23, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 101.88 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 135.54 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 7.06 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 206.89 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 stock index options was 7.07 million contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 15.72 million contracts [1] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai 50 ETF options was reported at 0.52, with a month - on - month change of +0.05; the position PCR was reported at 1.02, with a month - on - month change of +0.05. Similar data were provided for other types of options [2] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai 50 ETF options was reported at 12.99%, with a month - on - month change of +0.27%. Similar data were also provided for other types of options [3]
油脂日报:产量预期走低,棕榈底部震荡-20251224
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 05:27
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to lower production expectations. The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. After India increased its import channels for oils this year, the pace of India's palm oil purchases slowed down, and recent export data also slowed. However, with the arrival of the seasonal production - reduction season, the market expects future supply to decrease synchronously, and the overall situation will continue to fluctuate [1][2] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,486 yuan/ton, a change of +72 yuan or +0.86% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,772 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,847 yuan/ton, a change of -17 yuan or -0.19% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton, a change of +150 yuan or +1.81%, and the spot basis was P05 - 56 yuan, a change of +78 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,190 yuan/ton, a change of +30 yuan or +0.37%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 418 yuan, a change of +30 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,400 yuan/ton, a change of +70 yuan or +0.75%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 553 yuan, a change of +87 yuan [1] Market News - As of December 21, the EU's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season (starting in July) reached 6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14%; the total imports of rapeseed were 1.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41%; the imports of soybean meal decreased by 11% to 8.83 million tons, and the imports of palm oil were 1.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9%. The Indonesian Meteorological Agency stated that the rainy season in Indonesia is expected to return to normal in 2026, and the authorities should strive to improve efficiency during the harvest period of major crops such as palm oil. As of December 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 2,148,146 tons [2]
原料价格上涨乏力
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 05:27
化工日报 | 2025-12-24 据隆众资讯了解,目前半钢四季胎市场货源相对充足,市场以消化前期库存为主,出货节奏放缓;个别规格存在 缺货情况,但需求疲软压制市场进货情绪,商家操作趋于谨慎。半钢雪地胎渠道货源储备充足,当前处于终端去 库阶段,需等待降雪频次增加以进一步释放替换需求。整体来看,市场成交平淡,价格呈弱势运行态势。 现货方面,云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14950元/吨,较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14520元/吨,较前 一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1845美元/吨,较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1765美元/吨,较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10900元/吨,较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10950元/吨,较前一日变动+50元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶(含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶)进口量64.36万吨,环比增 加25.98%,同比增加14.69%,2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨,累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的20 ...