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聚烯烃日报:需求跟进偏慢,盘面窄幅波动-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core View - The downstream demand is in the transition period between the seasonal peak and off - peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend, while those of plastic weaving and BOPP films are flat month - on - month. The overall demand follows up slowly. Multiple PE plants are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate decreases slightly, with the supply pressure expected to ease slightly. New PP production capacity is being released. The upstream production inventory increases slightly, the inventory in the middle - stream decreases, and the downstream rigid demand procurement increases. With the arrival of the peak demand season in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is weakly consolidating, the profit of PDH - made PP is slightly in the red, and the maintenance volume of PDH plants increases [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyze the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include the production profit of LL (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based and PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [16][19][27] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Compare the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [26][33][34] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Analyze the import and export profits of LL and PP, including LL import profit, LL price differences in different regions, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and price differences of PP homopolymer injection molding in different regions [39][52][59] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - Cover the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, and PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP films, injection molding, as well as the production gross profits of PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP films [56][63][70] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Include the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [72][76][81]
新能源及有色金属日报:市场成交相对偏低,铅价维持震荡格局-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:28
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] 2) Core View The peak - season demand for lead is not obvious, and the supply - demand pattern has been generally weak. This pattern may not change significantly in September. Under the background of the Fed's interest rate cut, lead prices may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On September 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$48.13/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price dropped by 75 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. Lead prices in different regions and prices of related products like lead scrap also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Futures**: On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,895 yuan/ton and closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 45,315 lots, an increase of 14,839 lots. The position was 50,467 lots, an increase of 766 lots. During the night session, it closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close. The lead market had weak supply and demand, with weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm and light trading [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 10, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week. As of September 11, the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, a decrease of 2,325 tons from the previous trading day [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Maintain a neutral view. Due to the unclear peak - season demand and the supply - demand pattern that is difficult to change in September, but with the Fed's interest rate cut, the lead price may be volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to trade within the range of 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Suspend operations [5]
新能源及有色金属日报:观望情绪较浓,镍不锈钢价格小幅震荡-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, is easily affected by macro - sentiment, with an unchanged supply surplus pattern, high inventory, and limited upside potential [3]. - The stainless - steel price shows signs of stopping decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive decline in inventory and rising material costs, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,500 yuan/ton and closed at 120,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 75,006 (- 25,275) lots, and the open interest was 81,612 (775) lots [1]. - The Shanghai nickel 2510 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern, with the closing price down 90 yuan from the previous trading day. The net short position of the main contract decreased, and the technical side presented a pattern of "20 - day moving average suppression but cost - line support". The trading volume shrank significantly, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment [1]. - The nickel ore market remained in a wait - and - see state, with rising freight rates and firm prices. Philippine mines had firm quotes, and shipments were slightly delayed due to rainfall. Domestic iron plants' profits remained in the red, and nickel ore procurement was cautious. In Indonesia, the supply was loose, and the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to rise by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,700 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was generally average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 22,304 (- 295) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 221,094 (3,024) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel price will mainly fluctuate, and the trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 10, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,915 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,463 (+ 5,951) lots, and the open interest was 123,168 (- 4,171) lots [3]. - The stainless - steel main contract showed a weakly volatile pattern. Affected by the weakening of the black market, the price once fell below 12,900 yuan/ton at night. It strengthened during the day session and finally stabilized above 12,900 yuan/ton. The open interest increased slightly, and the long - short game intensified [3]. - The futures market was weakly volatile, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. The trading was consistently light, but the hot - rolled supply was tight, and the inquiry and trading were better than those of cold - rolled products. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,200 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 290 - 590 yuan/ton [3]. - According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 952.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - The trading strategy for stainless - steel is neutral for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].
丙烯日报:供应端波动支撑,丙烯现货继续上探-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the maintenance dynamics of upstream PDH units and the resumption of work in downstream industries [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply - side fluctuations support the upward trend of propylene spot prices. On the supply side, PDH maintenance supports the supply, and market trading has improved, leading to a rebound in propylene spot prices. On the demand side, the high propylene price has compressed downstream profits, weakening the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries and suppressing the upward space of propylene. On the cost side, the cost support for propylene is acceptable [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Includes figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Covers figures like the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [33][34][36] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Comprises figures of production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [39][40][42] 5. Propylene Inventory - Includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [63][64]
能耗政策扰动,工业硅盘面偏强运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the futures market is running strongly, mainly influenced by the market's expectations of energy - consumption policies during the association meeting. It is expected to fluctuate widely under the influence of overall commodity sentiment and policy expectations [2]. - For polysilicon, the current fundamentals are average, but the downstream production schedule is better than expected. The recent large decline in the futures market is due to the high settlement price of the previous day and the large increase last week. The futures price decline is to some extent a regression of the basis. The market is affected by both weak reality and strong policy expectations, with large fluctuations in the near - term. If the anti - involution policy progresses well, polysilicon can be considered for long - term low - buying [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was running strongly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8300 yuan/ton and closed at 8665 yuan/ton, a change of 135 yuan/ton (1.58%) from the previous day's settlement price. The position of the main contract 2511 was 278,065 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,045 lots, a change of 90 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in other regions also remained stable [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. The monomer factory's pre - sales orders were relatively sufficient, with little inventory pressure. Downstream enterprises still mainly replenished inventory at low prices, and the support for the market was relatively limited. It is expected that silicone will stabilize in the short term [1]. - **Strategy** - The spot price remains stable, and the fundamentals have little change. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely under the influence of overall commodity sentiment and policy expectations [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 10, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 52,400 yuan/ton and closed at 52,885 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.40% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 137,072 lots (142,980 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 411,979 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.10 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.10 (a month - on - month change of - 0.90%), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.85GW (a month - on - month change of - 6.65%), the weekly polysilicon output was 30,200 tons (a month - on - month change of - 2.58%), and the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW (a month - on - month change of 3.53%) [4]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.28 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.63 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.38 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece) [4]. - The prices of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4][6]. - The mainstream transaction prices of PERC182mm components were 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm were 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm were 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm were 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range operation for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. If the anti - involution policy progresses well, polysilicon can be considered for long - term low - buying [7].
黑色建材日报:市场情绪谨慎,双焦震荡运行-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:26
黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-11 市场情绪谨慎,双焦震荡运行 玻璃纯碱:成本支撑下移,玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面:昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行。截至收盘,主力2601合约跌幅1.5%。现货方面,产销数据尚可,期货升 水现货。供需与逻辑:当前厂库高位小幅波动,玻璃供需矛盾依旧存在。短期盘面升水持续压制价格,谨慎对待 节前的价格波动,后期关注玻璃旺季需求表现。 纯碱方面:昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行。截至收盘,主力2601合约跌幅0.47%。现货方面,采购情绪谨慎,以刚需 成交为主。供需与逻辑:目前纯碱产量维持在高位波动且伴随四季度新增产能落地;纯碱消费存在进一步走弱预 期。叠加目前盘面升水,进一步压制纯碱价格,后期关注新产能投放和下游需求变化。 策略 玻璃方面:震荡偏弱 纯碱方面:震荡偏弱 跨期:无 跨品种:无 风险 宏观政策、玻璃下游需求、纯碱产量和库存变化等。 双硅:产区利润不佳,铁合金震荡运行 市场分析 硅锰方面:昨日硅锰主力合约收于5854元/吨。现货方面,河钢某大厂9月硅锰首轮询价5800元/吨,市场处于观望 状态。成本端,天津港锰矿市场报价坚挺,半碳酸价格34-34.5元/吨度,南非高铁29.5 ...
甲醇日报:港口库存再度快速累积-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:25
甲醇日报 | 2025-09-11 港口库存再度快速累积 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面:Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤415元/吨(-30),内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润750元/吨(+53);内地甲醇价格方面, 内蒙北线2055元/吨(-8),内蒙北线基差282元/吨(-9),内蒙南线2080元/吨(+0);山东临沂2325元/吨(+2),鲁 南基差152元/吨(+1);河南2230元/吨(+0),河南基差57元/吨(-1);河北2265元/吨(+0),河北基差152元/吨(-1)。 隆众内地工厂库存333393吨(+22600),西北工厂库存214500吨(+16500);隆众内地工厂待发订单216985吨(+9615), 西北工厂待发订单113300吨(+8100)。 港口方面:太仓甲醇2232元/吨(-18),太仓基差-141元/吨(-19),CFR中国260美元/吨(-1),华东进口价差-34元 /吨(-15),常州甲醇2430元/吨;广东甲醇2255元/吨(-10),广东基差-118元/吨(-11)。隆众港口总库存1299250 吨(+223290),江苏港口库存671500吨(+124000),浙江 ...
石油沥青日报:装置开工率明显增加,市场情绪偏谨慎-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:25
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - Crude oil price rebounds, driving a slight increase in asphalt futures, but the increase is limited and the short - term direction remains unclear. The demand peak season characteristics are not obvious, and the increase in asphalt supply in some areas suppresses the spot price. If the oil price rebound is insufficient, the upward driving force of the asphalt market is limited [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On September 10, the closing price of the main BU2511 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3450 yuan/ton, up 0.88% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 244,770 lots, a net increase of 2,860 lots, and the trading volume was 150,423 lots, a net increase of 37,975 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: Northeast 3,806 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,470 - 3,820 yuan/ton; South China 3,490 - 3,540 yuan/ton; East China 3,560 - 3,700 yuan/ton [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Sichuan - Chongqing markets decreased, and that in Shandong market increased slightly, while those in other regions remained stable. The utilization rate of production capacity of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 34.9%, a 6.8% increase week - on - week [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic asphalt production (weekly, independent refineries, different regions), domestic asphalt consumption (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]
化工日报:天然橡胶社会库存环比继续下降-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:23
Report Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral [7]. - The rating for BR is neutral [7]. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with decreasing rainfall in major production areas, raw material prices may rise, weakening cost - side support. Despite average downstream demand, tire factory开工率 is expected to rebound this week as it's the traditional peak season. Port and social inventories are currently decreasing but may rise again after downstream stocking [7]. - For BR, some upstream devices are under maintenance, expected to reduce supply. With the rebound of tire factory开工率 and the peak - season effect, demand is expected to improve. The price may rise, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7]. Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1]. Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; Thai 20 - standard rubber was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Indonesian 20 - standard rubber was 1,785 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information Import and Export - In August 2025, China imported 66.4 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), up 7.8% year - on - year. From January to August, the total import was 537.3 tons, up 19% year - on - year [2]. - In the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 1.05 million tons, up 14.4% year - on - year. In August, exports increased 14.8% year - on - year but decreased 8.9% month - on - month [2]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, down 1% month - on - month and up 35% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, up 13% year - on - year [2]. - In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand exported 1.586 million tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), down 5% year - on - year. Among them, standard rubber exports were 919,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; smoked sheet rubber exports were 227,000 tons, up 25% year - on - year; latex exports were 431,000 tons, up 9% year - on - year [2]. - From January to July, Thailand exported 622,000 tons of natural rubber to China, up 7% year - on - year. Among them, standard rubber exports to China were 398,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; smoked sheet rubber exports to China were 65,000 tons, up 306% year - on - year; latex exports to China were 157,000 tons, up 65% year - on - year [3]. - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports were 5.63 million tons, up 5.4% year - on - year, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% year - on - year. From January to July, automobile tire exports were 4.8 million tons, up 4.9% year - on - year, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, up 4.9% year - on - year [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the RU basis was - 880 yuan/ton (+10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 980 yuan/ton (+40), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,428 yuan/ton (+88.02), the NR basis was 538.00 yuan/ton (+30.00); whole latex was 15,100 yuan/ton (+50), mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0), 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,865 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 200 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,700 yuan/ton (+0) [4]. Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.98 baht/kg (- 0.12), Thai latex was 56.00 baht/kg (+0.00), Thai cup lump was 52.55 baht/kg (- 0.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.45 baht/kg (+0.40) [5]. 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 60.74% (- 4.15%), and that of semi - steel tires was 66.92% (- 4.05%) [6]. Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,257,715 tons (- 7,183.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 592,275 tons (- 10,020), the RU futures inventory was 162,230 tons (- 16,410), and the NR futures inventory was 46,569 tons (+907) [6]. 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the BR basis was - 70 yuan/ton (- 130), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,350 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private - owned顺丁橡胶 in Shandong was 11,580 yuan/ton (- 70), and the import profit of顺丁橡胶 in Northeast Asia was - 1,506 yuan/ton (- 50) [6]. 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis顺丁橡胶 was 76.16% (+0.31%) [6]. Inventory - The trade inventory of顺丁橡胶 was 8,210 tons (+950), and the enterprise inventory of顺丁橡胶 was 26,300 tons (+1,650) [6]. Strategy - For natural rubber, due to the expected increase in raw material prices in major production areas, the cost - side support will weaken. Although downstream demand is average, with the rebound of tire factory开工率 in the peak season, demand is expected to improve. Port and social inventories are currently decreasing but may rise after downstream stocking [7]. - For BR, with some upstream device maintenance, supply is expected to decrease. With the rebound of tire factory开工率 in the peak season, demand is expected to improve. The price may rise, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7].
化工日报:EG近强远弱,关注新装置投产时间-20250911
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the ethylene glycol (EG) industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The current situation of EG shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with attention focused on the commissioning time of new plants. The EG market has a short - term suppression from warehouse receipts and a fourth - quarter inventory accumulation expectation, but the low inventory limits the downward space. In September, the spot is tight [1][3] - The supply side in China has the domestic ethylene glycol load returning to a high level, with the syngas load expected to decline in September. Overseas, there are still many supply losses. The import volume from September to October may be revised downwards. The demand side has a slow recovery, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly, with the 9 - month EG balance sheet showing a slight reduction and the main port inventory expected to remain low [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,319 yuan/ton (a change of - 3 yuan/ton or - 0.07% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,440 yuan/ton (a change of - 5 yuan/ton or - 0.11% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 135 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 27 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 61 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 70 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 48 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - The report mentions the international price difference of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), but no specific data is provided [19] Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - The demand for EG is currently recovering slowly, with insufficient order connection. The polyester load is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 44.9 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.1 million tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 37.6 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 3.7 million tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 102,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 93,000 tons, with a moderate arrival volume [1]