Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for soybeans is neutral [4] - The investment strategy for peanuts is also neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - The upward momentum of soybeans is insufficient, and peanut oil mills' procurement remains cautious [1] - The domestic soybean market is in a supply - surplus situation, and if there is concentrated grain sales later, prices may face downward pressure [2] - Peanut demand has no obvious improvement, and the market procurement is generally cautious [6] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2601 contract yesterday was 4055.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 21.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.52% [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 + 25, a change of + 21 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] - Market situation: Northeast new - season soybeans are stable, but due to the decline in futures prices, some farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, and the market supply has increased slightly. Downstream traders purchase on - demand, and the overall acquisition rhythm is rational [2] - Price trend: Domestic soybean prices have insufficient upward momentum, with some areas slightly adjusting downwards and some remaining firm. It is expected that soybean prices will be temporarily stable in the short term, with slight adjustments in some areas [3] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2601 contract yesterday was 7812.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 12.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.15% [4] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 7950.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 + - 12.00, a change of - 12.00 from the previous day [4] - Market situation: The overall supply of peanuts in the country is limited, the demand has no obvious improvement, oil mills' acquisition enthusiasm is not high, and market procurement is cautious [5][6] Group 5: Market Risks - For soybeans, if enterprise acquisition intensity weakens later, prices may adjust downwards, and rising freight costs compress trade profits [3] - For peanuts, the risk is the weakening of demand [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for asphalt trading strategies, it suggests a cautious and bearish stance, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is in a weak state. The futures price of the main contract has declined, and the spot price has also dropped in some regions. The cost - side support is insufficient due to the weak and volatile crude oil prices, and the market sentiment is under pressure because of the pessimistic outlook for future demand [1]. - Excluding the fluctuations in the crude oil end, the fundamental driving force of asphalt itself remains bearish [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 4th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3,193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton or 2% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 206,960 lots, a decrease of 892 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 174,057 lots, a decrease of 89,247 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast region, 3,406 - 4,750 yuan/ton; Shandong region, 3,130 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China region, 3,350 - 3,520 yuan/ton; East China region, 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions decreased yesterday, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral trading: Cautiously bearish, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 12 - month futures contract for shipping has a strong price increase expectation, and the valuation keeps rising. Shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep freight rates at a high level for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The 12 - month contract trading will focus on the rhythm of price increase expectations and actual implementation of price increase letters. The price of the second half of December may reach around 3000 dollars/FEU, and the valuation ceiling of the 12 - month contract may be around 2100 - 2200 points. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of flights expectation [4][5] - The decline of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" is conducive to promoting the recovery of Sino - US trade, driving the demand recovery of the US - bound routes, and providing some support for the European route prices [3] - The strategy for futures trading is that the 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of November 4, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 69023.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 37617.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1593.70, 1190.00, 1411.00, 1485.00, 1135.00, and 1909.90 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - On October 31, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1344 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2647 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3438 dollars/FEU. On November 3, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1208.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1267.15 points [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November 2025, the average weekly capacity of China - European base ports is 286,000 TEU, and the capacities of Week 45/46/47/48/49 are 310,700/273,000/296,500/270,000/299,900 TEU respectively. In December, the average weekly capacity is 322,900 TEU, and the capacities of Week 50/51/52/53 are 336,400/299,400/335,600/320,400 TEU respectively. There are 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 6 TBNs in December [3] - As of October 31, 2025, 218 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.784 million TEU. 67 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.008 million TEU; 11 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 236,320 TEU [6] 4. Supply Chain - Not provided with specific summarized information in the content 5. Demand and European Economy - Not provided with specific summarized information in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has poor sentiment, and steel prices continue to decline. The iron ore market has weakening demand expectations, and prices are oscillating downward. The coking coal and coke market has average sentiment, and prices are oscillating downward. The动力煤 market has prices rising, with short - term upward momentum [1][3][5][7]. Summary by Commodity Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main contract of rebar closed at 3044 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3265 yuan/ton. The overall spot steel trading was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9.27 tons. The trading volume in the East China region decreased significantly, while that in the North and South increased slightly [1]. - Supply and demand logic: The cost of rebar still provides support, and there is a possibility of more favorable policies. The profit of hot - rolled coil is better than that of rebar, so the output is relatively high. As steel mills have profits, the willingness to cut production is low. In November, the number of planned maintenance and production cuts by steel mills increases, and there are occasional environmental protection restrictions in the North [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 146.1 tons, a 12.99% increase from the previous period; the forward - looking spot trading volume was 72.2 tons, a 22.57% decrease [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The arrival volume of iron ore this week increased significantly by 58.6%. The overall iron ore valuation is neutral, the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening and generally loose, and the ore price is under downward pressure. However, supported by downstream restocking demand, there is no clear trend in the short term. With steel mills' loss - driven production cuts, the resilience of iron ore demand has weakened, and the price faces correction pressure [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The black commodity sector oscillated weakly, and the closing prices of coking coal and coke futures both declined slightly. The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal continued to rise to a high level, and the trading atmosphere was average, with downstream players mainly in a wait - and - see mode [5]. - Logic and view: For coking coal, due to safety inspections, the supply in some producing areas has not fully recovered, and the overall output is low, with the supply shortage pressure not significantly alleviated. On the demand side, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, but the expectation of a new round of coke price increases has risen, and the inventory - building willingness of some enterprises has increased. For coke, affected by the rising coal price, coke enterprises are still operating at a loss, and some have maintenance plans, so the supply has contracted to some extent. On the demand side, the price of finished steel has declined recently, and the profit of steel mills has shrunk significantly, but the market's expectation of rising raw material prices has increased, and the procurement plan has increased compared with before, providing some support for the coke price [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating [6]. - Coke: Oscillating [6]. 动力煤 Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the producing areas, the coal price is still strong. Affected by safety inspections, the supply is tight. Downstream procurement is active, and the inventory of coal mines is decreasing. Miners believe that due to safety inspections and heating demand, the supply - demand mismatch will continue, and the price is difficult to decline in the short term. At ports, affected by the rising upstream prices, the quoted prices are firm, but downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand and is resistant to high - priced coal. Although railway transportation has increased and port inventory has accumulated, the accumulation rate is low. With the continuous price increase of upstream coal mines, the arrival cost has risen, so there is a shortage of low - priced coal resources, and the price will continue to rise in the short term. In the import market, the price is also strong, and the price difference between domestic and imported coal is still large, so imported coal still has an advantage [7]. - Demand and logic: Affected by the situation in the producing areas, the price will oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern, but with the approaching of the winter heating season, attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. Strategy - No strategy provided [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Both apple and红枣 investment ratings are neutral [4][8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Apple market: The apple futures price dropped significantly yesterday. The market is in the late stage of transaction, and the prices show a clear polarization. The new - season late - Fuji has a low commodity rate this year, and the warehousing work is slow. It is expected that the warehousing volume will be lower than last year due to continuous rainfall [1][3][4] - Red date market: The red date futures price also dropped significantly yesterday. The spot prices in different production areas vary. The procurement in the sales areas is mainly on - demand. The market game intensifies as the red dates are about to be harvested. Attention should be paid to the changes in purchase prices and actual production [5][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8861 yuan/ton, a change of - 243 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 2.67%. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commodity late - Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The warehousing work in late - Fuji production areas continues. In Shandong, the price of general goods is slightly weak, while the price of high - quality goods remains stable. In Gansu, the warehousing work is coming to an end, and in Shaanxi, it is gradually carried out. The overall market shows a polarization, and attention should be paid to the warehousing volume and structure [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price dropped significantly yesterday. The warehousing progress varies in different production areas. The price polarization is obvious, with high - quality goods having stable prices and poor - quality goods having chaotic prices. The warehousing work in the western region is slow, and the rhythm in Shandong is also slow [3] Strategy - Neutral. After entering November, due to continuous rainfall, the warehousing volume of new - season Fuji is expected to be lower than last year [4] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 9695 yuan/ton, a change of - 585 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 5.69%. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - The mainstream prices of red dates in different production areas vary. In some areas, the raw material procurement is almost over. In the Hebei market, the new - season red dates are in limited supply, and the downstream customers purchase on - demand. It is expected that the spot price will fluctuate slightly in the short term [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price dropped significantly yesterday. The spot prices in different production areas vary. The procurement in the sales areas is mainly on - demand. The purchase enthusiasm of merchants in Xinjiang has decreased significantly, and the price in the Hebei market has dropped slightly [7] Strategy - Neutral. As the red dates are about to be harvested, the futures price has dropped significantly, and the market game has intensified. Attention should be paid to the changes in purchase prices and actual production [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, port inventory has rebounded again, indicating weak downstream提货 demand. Styrene is in the maintenance period, and the start - up rates of caprolactam and phenol are still low. On the supply side, the domestic pure benzene start - up rate has bottomed out and rebounded [3]. - For styrene, short - term maintenance continues, but port arrivals are still available. The decline in port inventory is due to a short - term increase in downstream提货, but the start - up of ABS is consolidating at a low level, and the start - up of PS has further decreased. The inventory pressure of the three major hard rubber products is still high, and the continuous performance of downstream提货 remains to be observed. The port basis of styrene has rebounded slightly, and low - level transactions have improved [3]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Figures related to pure benzene basis and futures price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread are presented [8][13][16] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Figures related to naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB Korea, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, styrene FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and styrene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China are presented [19][22][31] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Start - up Rate - Figures related to pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene start - up rate, styrene East China port inventory, styrene start - up rate, styrene East China commercial inventory, and styrene factory inventory are presented [37][39][42] IV. Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures related to EPS start - up rate, EPS production profit, PS start - up rate, PS production profit, ABS start - up rate, and ABS production profit are presented [48][50][53] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures related to caprolactam start - up rate, phenol - ketone start - up rate, aniline start - up rate, adipic acid start - up rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - ketone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit are presented [57][60][69] Market Data Pure Benzene - Main basis: - 33 yuan/ton (+53) [1] - Port inventory: 12.10 million tons (+3.60 million tons) [1] - CFR China processing fee: 99 US dollars/ton (+2 US dollars/ton) [1] - FOB Korea processing fee: 81 US dollars/ton (+1 US dollar/ton) [1] - US - Korea spread: 72.4 US dollars/ton (+0.0 US dollar/ton) [1] - East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread: - 65 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [1] - Downstream production profits: caprolactam - 1855 yuan/ton (+15), phenol - ketone - 553 yuan/ton (-75), aniline 1098 yuan/ton (+48), adipic acid - 1215 yuan/ton (-37) [1] - Downstream start - up rates: caprolactam 86.05% (-2.84%), phenol 78.00% (+0.00%), aniline 78.57% (+2.09%), adipic acid 58.00% (+2.20%) [1] Styrene - Main basis: 46 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton) [1] - Non - integrated production profit: - 444 yuan/ton (-49 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] - East China port inventory: 179,300 tons (-13,700 tons) [1] - East China commercial inventory: 109,800 tons (-11,200 tons), in the inventory reconstruction stage [1] - Start - up rate: 66.7% (-2.5%) [1] Downstream Hard Rubber - EPS production profit: 314 yuan/ton (+59 yuan/ton) [2] - PS production profit: - 36 yuan/ton (+9 yuan/ton) [2] - ABS production profit: - 38 yuan/ton (+106 yuan/ton) [2] - EPS start - up rate: 62.24% (+0.27%) [2] - PS start - up rate: 52.00% (-1.80%) [2] - ABS start - up rate: 72.10% (-0.70%) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell and hedge BZ and EB at high prices [4] - Basis and inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [9] Group 2: Core Views - The domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum remain stable. Overseas, an accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant caused a production cut of about 200,000 tons, and high power costs continue to pressure overseas operations. Consumption shows good growth, and if the social inventory reduction goes smoothly, there is potential for aluminum prices to rise [6]. - Guinea's bauxite supply pressure persists, and the alumina market has an oversupply situation. Although the market activity has increased due to electrolytic aluminum plants' procurement, the spot price is difficult to rise, and the current price is undervalued [7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On November 4, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount was -10 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,290 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount was -160 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount was -150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,555 yuan/ton, closed at 21,465 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,370 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 211,680 lots, and the open interest was 256,161 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 4, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, a change of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 64,194 tons, a change of -75 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 552,575 tons, a change of -2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: On November 4, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,000 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,010 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 318 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,790 yuan/ton, closed at 2,770 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton or -0.54% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,798 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 193,593 lots, and the open interest was 420,282 lots [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On November 4, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 21,120 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 120 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. An accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant caused a production cut of about 200,000 tons, and high power costs continue to pressure overseas operations. Although the social inventory shows a mediocre performance during the peak consumption season, the aluminum water ratio has reached a record high of 77%, indicating good consumption growth, and the real peak consumption season is expected from November to December. With the positive progress of Sino - US negotiations, there are still macro - positive factors, and the decline of aluminum prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the social inventory reduction rhythm [6]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's bauxite supply pressure persists. The alumina spot price is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward alumina due to rich profits and winter storage demand, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The cost of the ore end has decreased, but the alumina smelting loss has not improved. There is no large - scale production cut, and new production capacity is still expected. The current price is undervalued [7][8].

燃料油日报 | 2025-11-05 盘面弱势震荡，高低硫价差继续回升 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.37%，报2731元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌0.87%，报3286 元/吨。 跟随原油端节奏，FU、LU盘面弱势震荡运行，短期趋势不明朗。与此同时，高低硫价差从底部连续回升，反映强 弱格局出现边际变化。其中，高硫燃料油近期基本面有所松动，欧佩克增产及发电终端需求下滑将带动中东地区 出口增长，俄罗斯虽受到乌克兰无人机袭击的影响，但未受损坏的炼厂提高了开工负荷，对燃料油产量形成一定 补充，目前仍需进一步评估俄罗斯供应受制裁的影响。 低硫燃料油方面，随着Dangote炼厂RFCC装置重启，局部供应压力缓解。此外，科威特11月发货量预计将下滑， 主要是阿祖尔炼厂一套20.5万桶/天的CDU装置以及3套5.5万桶/天的渣油脱硫装置因故障检修（预计11月中旬重 启）。整体来看，低硫燃料油市场结构短期具备一定修复条件，高低硫价差短期有望震荡偏强运行，但上方空间或 有限。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 跨品种：逢低多LU2601-FU2601价差 跨期：无 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures [5] Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown has tied the record, putting pressure on global liquidity. The Fed's slow stop of QT and potential liquidity risks in November need attention. The domestic market has positive news, but the economic foundation needs to be strengthened. Commodities should be on the sidelines for now, with a focus on potential breakthroughs in the second half of inflation [2][3][4] Market Analysis - On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released, with clear goals. The average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan may be around 5%. On October 30, the China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus. The October national manufacturing PMI was 49, with a month - on - month value of - 0.8. The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October. On November 4, the A - share market adjusted, with the ChiNext Index down nearly 2% [2] Fed and US Economic Situation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. The short - term funding shortage persists, with the spread between the general collateral rate and the reserve balance rate reaching 0.32%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 67.8%. The US government shutdown continues, and the October ISM manufacturing index fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months. The dollar index broke through 100 on November 4 [3] Commodity Analysis - Commodities should be on the sidelines. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector's medium - term supply is considered relatively loose, with OPEC+ increasing production. The chemical sector's "anti - involution" space for some varieties is worthy of attention. For agricultural products, focus on China's procurement plan and weather expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase [4] Key News - The central bank's net open - market treasury bond trading in October was 200 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 200 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 400 billion yuan. The market adjusted on November 4, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. The US government shutdown entered the 35th day. The dollar index broke through 100. Iraq's prime minister ordered a halt to gasoline, diesel, and kerosene imports [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has an oversupply situation with high inventories, and the nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply from the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [2]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, accumulating inventories, and weakening cost support, and the stainless - steel price is expected to continue the bottom - level oscillation trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 opened at 120,800 yuan/ton and closed at 119,700 yuan/ton, a - 0.99% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 122,871 (+25,519) lots, and the open interest was 118,460 (9,789) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation trend due to macro - factors such as the rising US dollar index, the Fed's hawkish remarks, and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm, with stable prices. There was a supply - demand gap, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. In the Philippines, rainfall and typhoons may cause shipment delays. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,500 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot transaction was okay, and the spot premiums of each brand remained unchanged. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 30,952 (-254) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (0) tons [2]. Strategy - The nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the situation of price rebound needs attention due to the sharp reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading for single - side operations, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,625 yuan/ton and closed at 12,545 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,422 (+3,760) lots, and the open interest was 76,075 (-4,171) lots. It showed a weak oscillation trend, similar to the Shanghai nickel trend, affected by macro - factors and the weakening nickel - iron price [2][3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the continuous decline in futures prices, the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment increased, and the actual transaction was still weak. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets remained unchanged, and the high - nickel pig iron ex - factory tax - included average price decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 921.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The stainless - steel price is expected to continue the bottom - level oscillation trend. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [4].