Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Domestic downstream procurement is difficult to improve, and the spot discount continues to widen under rigid - demand procurement. The domestic and foreign contradiction pattern persists, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, but the overseas situation provides favorable price support. [4] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $17.62/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 70 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,060 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 100 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,080 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On September 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,160 yuan/ton and closed at 22,215 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 83,724 lots, and the open interest was 103,054 lots. The highest price was 22,245 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,110 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of September 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 152,100 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 50,825 tons, a change of - 200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Domestic downstream procurement is difficult to improve, and the spot discount continues to widen. The domestic and foreign contradiction pattern persists, with overseas inventory decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with domestic TC slightly decreasing in September. The domestic smelting profit still exists, and the supply pressure is high. In August, zinc ingot production increased by 28% year - on - year. The overseas situation provides favorable price support, with a good macro - environment, supply contraction, and potential squeeze - out risk [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

农产品日报 | 2025-09-11 策略 中性 风险 政策变化 现货保持平稳，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3081元/吨，较前日变动+14元/吨，幅度+0.46%；菜粕2601合约2542元/吨，较前 日变动-8元/吨，幅度-0.31%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-31， 较前日变动-14；江苏地区豆粕现货2980元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-101，较前日变动-14；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2960元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-121，较前日变动-4。福建地区菜粕现货价格2650 元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差RM01+108，较前日变动-2。 近期市场资讯，9月9日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会公布，巴西9月份大豆出口量预计升至743万吨，而前一周预计 为675万吨。9月巴西豆粕出口预计为211万吨，前一周预计为194万吨。9月巴西玉米出口预计达到696万吨，前一 周预计为637万吨。 市场分析 当前美豆生长情况良好，优良率处于历史高位，Profarmer本年度 ...

原油日报 | 2025-09-11 特朗普考虑协同欧盟对俄实施更多二级关税或制裁 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.04美元，收于每桶63.67美元，涨幅为1.66%；11月交货的 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.10美元，收于每桶67.49美元，涨幅为1.66%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.82%，报490 元/桶。 2、 美国能源部长赖特：我们将扩大原油及成品油产量，并增加对欧洲的出口。(来源：Bloomberg） 3、白宫正审议一项计划，要求大型炼油厂承担部分因小型炼厂豁免而减少的生物燃料掺混量。该计划将要求大型 炼油厂补偿50%或更低的豁免生物燃料量，低于生物燃料行业寻求的100%。(来源：Bloomberg） 4、\t欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩：我们需要对俄罗斯实施更多制裁，在当下的制裁谈判中，我们正在考虑加快淘汰 俄罗斯化石燃料，还在考虑对石油暗影船队和第三国实施制裁。（来源：Bloomberg） 5、\t受黑海新罗西斯克港出口量增加推动，俄罗斯原油出口量升至三个月来的最高水平。与此同时，乌克兰无人 机袭击加剧，导致俄罗斯炼油系统大范围受扰，使得更多原油可用于出口。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are oscillating in a range. In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine is unclear, and in the medium term, there is an expectation of oversupply, providing limited guidance on fuel oil price direction [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the stage of market rebalancing, with recent spreads stabilizing and slightly rebounding. There are both long and short factors, with relatively ample near-term supply and high inventory in Singapore. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East is expected to decline. Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in September are currently estimated at 280,000 tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous month [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market contradictions are limited. Domestic production has increased but remains at a low level. The external market structure has made small adjustments, and downstream marine fuel demand is average. In the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and surplus capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fuel oil futures prices: The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil price situation: Crude oil prices are oscillating in a range. In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine is unclear, and in the medium term, there is an expectation of oversupply, providing limited guidance on fuel oil price direction [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals: In the stage of market rebalancing, recent spreads have stabilized and slightly rebounded. There are both long and short factors, with relatively ample near-term supply and high inventory in Singapore. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East is expected to decline. Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in September are currently estimated at 280,000 tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous month [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals: Current market contradictions are limited. Domestic production has increased but remains at a low level. The external market structure has made small adjustments, and downstream marine fuel demand is average. In the medium term, it still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and surplus capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - Multiple figures show the prices, spreads, contract prices, and trading volumes of Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils, as well as Shanghai fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures, with units including US dollars/ton and yuan/ton, and hands [3]

FICC日报 | 2025-09-11 运价中枢继续下修，马士基WEEK39周报价开出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹38周价格1050/1760，39周报价1550美元/FEU；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价 格935/1535，10月上半月价格935/1535。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. 地缘端： 一名以色列官员表示，以色列对哈马斯在卡塔尔首都多哈的高级政治领导人发动了袭击，在以色列加大 对加沙地带的攻势之际，以色列对该组织的打击进一步升级。以色列官员称，美国总统特朗普已批准对卡塔尔的 哈马斯领导人发动袭击。卡塔尔是美国在该地区的重要合作伙伴，但哈马斯的政治领导人在那里设有办公室和住 所。目前尚不清楚是否有人在袭击中丧生。以色列国防部长卡茨早些时候警告海外的哈马斯领导人，如果该组织 不放下武器，他们将被歼灭。卡塔尔方面表示，这次袭击公然违反了所有国际法，谴责以色列在多哈发动针对哈 马斯官员的"懦弱"袭击。 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2025年9月7日。2025年至今交付集装箱船舶182艘，合计交付运力147.2万TEU。 12000 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-09-11 关注欧元区利率决议和美国8月CPI数据 市场分析 8月全球通胀上升迹象初显。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要 受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币供给超预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资 数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止 跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。中共中央、国务院印发关于推动城市高质量发展的意见。 意见提出，发展组团式、网络化的现代化城市群和都市圈，持续推动城镇老旧小区改造。商务部宣布，将于9月出 台扩大服务消费的若干政策措施。中国8月官方制造业PMI小幅回升至49.4，同样是价格分项驱动景气度回升。中 国8月按美元计价出口同比增长4.4%，增速较7月下降2.8个百分点，主要受高基数和关税影响；8月进口同比增速放 缓2.8个百分点至1.3%，低于预期，主要受大宗商品进口拖累，机电产品进口增速亦小幅回落，反映出国内需求持 续偏弱，需进一步等待企业补库信号释放。中国8月CPI同比转降0.4%，主要是上年同期对比基数走 ...

债基赎回增多，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩 大有效投资。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比减少0.4%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - For cross - period trading, before the export window period, UR01 - 05 positive spread can be used to trade fluctuations; after the export window period, UR01 - 05 short the spread when it is high. Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea spot market has weak domestic demand, with manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders and light trading. The agricultural autumn fertilizer season has started in some areas, and industrial demand from compound fertilizer and melamine is for essential purchases. The industrial demand was relatively weak due to the impact of the parade on factories, but the operating rate will recover. Urea production remains at a high level, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is still loose with the release of new production capacity. Coal - based urea has decent profits, and the cost support is average. The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decrease in urea inventory. We should focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On September 10, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1669 yuan/ton (-14). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1670 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1670 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1650 yuan/ton (-20). The small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The Shandong basis was 1 yuan/ton (+14), the Henan basis was 1 yuan/ton (+4), and the Jiangsu basis was - 19 yuan/ton (-6) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of September 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.11% (0.08%). Urea production remains at a high level, and with the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply - demand is still loose [1][2] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 140 yuan/ton (+0). The coal - based urea profit is decent, and the cost support is average [1][2] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1085 yuan/ton (+6). The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decrease in urea inventory [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 10, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.08% (-6.14%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.98% (+0.48%); the urea enterprise advance order days were 6.88 days (+0.47). The industrial demand was relatively weak due to the parade, but the operating rate will recover [1][2] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 113.27 million tons (+3.77), and the port sample inventory was 62.09 million tons (+2.09). The export is ongoing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the export in August and September may lead to a decrease in urea inventory [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the pure benzene market, new domestic production capacity will be concentrated in August - September, leading to high supply pressure. Downstream, the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain has high inventory pressure, which affects CPL operation. Aniline operation is weak, and there is still inventory pressure in its downstream MDI. Phenol operation has declined again due to the impact of bisphenol A. Only styrene operation is strong, but styrene maintenance may reduce pure benzene demand. This week, port inventory has started to decline, and the performance of downstream industries during the peak season should be monitored [3]. - In the styrene market, downstream提货 is good during the peak season, maintenance has increased, operation has gradually peaked and declined, and port inventory has started to decline. Among EB downstream industries, the提货 volume during the peak season has increased, PS operation recovery is good, and ABS maintains a relatively low inventory load during the production cycle [3]. - The market is starting to pay attention to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on different industries. In the petrochemical industry, further details about the rectification of plants over 20 years old are awaited [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 104 yuan/ton (- 13), and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 25 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) [1]. - The styrene main contract basis is 45 yuan/ton (+ 12 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 136 dollars/ton (- 4 dollars/ton), the FOB Korea processing fee is 118 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 62.6 dollars/ton (+ 11.0 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 372 yuan/ton (+ 14 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 14.40 tons (- 0.50 tons), and the operating rate data is not provided [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 176,500 tons (- 20,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 87,000 tons (- 9,500 tons), and the operating rate is 79.7% (+ 1.7%) [1]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS: The production profit is 211 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 52.52% (- 5.82%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 39 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 61.00% (+ 1.10%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 119 yuan/ton (- 18 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 69.00% (- 1.80%) [2]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1,690 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 90.41% (+ 1.03%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 272 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the phenol operating rate is 75.00% (- 1.00%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is - 99 yuan/ton (+ 117), and the operating rate is 67.96% (+ 0.41%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1,274 yuan/ton (- 1), and the operating rate is 60.00% (- 3.20%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and inter - period: Go long on the spread between EB2510 and EB2511 when it is low [4]. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread between EB2510 and BZ2603 in the short term when it is low [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-11 宏观因素持续主导铝价走势 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20750元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价20630元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-150元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录20710元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-65元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-10日沪铝主力合约开于20750元/吨，收于20790元/吨，较上一交易日变化40元/吨，最 高价达20825元/吨，最低价达到20735元/吨。全天交易日成交93249手，全天交易日持仓196440手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-10，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存63.1万吨，较上一期变化0.5吨，仓单库存64937 吨，较上一交易日变化478吨，LME铝库存485275吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-10SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3030元/吨，山东价格录得3010元/吨，河南价格录得 3070元/吨，广西价格 ...