化工日报 | 2025-12-24 据隆众资讯了解，目前半钢四季胎市场货源相对充足，市场以消化前期库存为主，出货节奏放缓；个别规格存在 缺货情况，但需求疲软压制市场进货情绪，商家操作趋于谨慎。半钢雪地胎渠道货源储备充足，当前处于终端去 库阶段，需等待降雪频次增加以进一步释放替换需求。整体来看，市场成交平淡，价格呈弱势运行态势。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14950元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14520元/吨，较前 一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1845美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1765美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10950元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral [4] - For the spread between MA2605 - MA2609, the strategy is to widen the spread when it is low [4] - For the spread between LL2605 - 3*MA2605, the strategy is to narrow the spread when it is high [4] Core Viewpoints - The delayed unloading pressure at ports has started to materialize, and there is pressure for inventory accumulation at Jiangsu ports [2] - After the winter maintenance of Iranian plants was concentrated, a 1.65 million - ton/year Iranian plant restarted on Monday, and the situation of the plants is fluctuating [2] - Although the Iranian plants are operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance still needs further confirmation [2] - The MTO maintenance at Ningbo Fude is dragging down port demand [2] - Coal - based methanol production is still operating well, and there is seasonal winter maintenance for southwest gas - based methanol production [3] - The new MTO plant, Lianhong Phase II, is operating stably [3] - Among traditional downstream industries, acetic acid production has a slight increase but remains at a low level, MTBE production remains at a high level, and formaldehyde production has a slight decline [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Figures show methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - term spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][13][19] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures present Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads between different regions (Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [24][28][29] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - Figures display methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [31][39] IV. Regional Price Spreads - Figures show regional price spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [37][44][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production profits of traditional downstream industries such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [46][56]

1、12月23日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价2977元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨8元/吨，涨幅 0.27%；持仓204742手，环比下跌12429手，成交242206手，环比下降124436手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2850—3190元/吨；华南，2750—2950元/吨； 华东，3000—3150元/吨。 虽然近日原油价格出现反弹，叠加南美地缘局势升温，但沥青现实基本面仍偏弱，制约了市场上涨动力。现货方 面，昨日华北地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，山东以及华东地区沥青现货价格跌幅明显，其余地区沥青现货价格大 体企稳。沥青终端需求整体表现疲软，市场资源较为充裕(尤其是华南地区），部分主营炼厂本周继续下调沥青结算 价格。往前看，南方地区过剩矛盾仍有待时间消化，原料端收紧风险则是潜在的上行驱动，市场多空因素交织， 现实与预期博弈下，底部反弹需要等待更明确的信号。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号明确，可尝试左侧逢低多配置 跨品种：无 石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-24 市场资源充裕，现实基本面仍偏弱 市场分析 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene market faces continuous supply pressure and weakens in a volatile manner. The overall propylene production remains high, and the supply pressure persists. Although the overall downstream operation has slightly increased, the cost pressure restricts the demand recovery, and the demand support is limited. Recently, the cost - end support has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the shutdown of PDH plants in the future [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5,632 yuan/ton (-15), the spot price in East China is 5,850 yuan/ton (-75), the spot price in North China is 5,810 yuan/ton (-80), the basis in East China is 218 yuan/ton (-60), the basis in North China is -114 yuan/ton (-118), the operating rate is 74% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 202 US dollars/ton (-9), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 50 US dollars/ton (-4), the import profit is -320 yuan/ton (+4), and the in - plant inventory is 46,560 tons (+600) [1] - **Propylene Downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 37% (-2.62%), and the production profit is -80 yuan/ton (+80); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 76% (+0%), and the production profit is -276 yuan/ton (-30); the operating rate of n - butanol is 78% (+9%), and the production profit is 336 yuan/ton (+100); the operating rate of octanol is 82% (+5%), and the production profit is 545 yuan/ton (+58); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 79% (+0%), and the production profit is 372 yuan/ton (+28); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 81% (+0%), and the production profit is -466 yuan/ton (+91); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 76% (-4%), and the production profit is -902 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall propylene production remains at a high level. The short - term loss and maintenance of PDH are not obvious, and some integrated enterprises stop PP production and release propylene. The commercial sales volume of propylene may continue to increase, and the supply pressure persists [2] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operation has slightly increased. Among them, the operating rate of butanol - octanol has increased the most due to the restart of maintenance plants, while the operating rate of phenol - acetone has decreased significantly. Due to serious profit inversion, the main PP powder plants have reduced production or stopped production, and the operating rate of the main downstream PP powder has continued to decline. The operating rate of propylene oxide remains stable. In the future, the cost pressure on the downstream will still restrict the demand recovery, and the demand support for propylene is limited [2] - **Cost Side**: The international oil price has rebounded recently, and the price of propane in the overseas market has also increased. Recently, the cost - end support has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the shutdown of PDH plants [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. As the supply and demand remain loose and the downstream support weakens, the market will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term. Wait for marginal plant maintenance [3] - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided

市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-23，尿素主力收盘1721元/吨（+23）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1680 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1720元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1710元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差：-1 元/吨（-33）；河南基差：-41元/吨（-33）；江苏基差：-11元/吨（-33）；尿素生产利润141元/吨（-10），出口利润824 元/吨（-22）。 供应端：截至2025-12-23，企业产能利用率80.69%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.97 万吨（-5.45），港口样本 库存量为13.80 万吨（+1.50）。 需求端：截至2025-12-23，复合肥产能利用率39.37%（-1.25%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.55%（-3.31%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.24日（-0.70）。 尿素日报 | 2025-12-24 市场交投氛围好转 本周环保限产逐渐恢复，尿素企业及下游工业开工均有小幅提升。近期尿素现货受下游开工小幅恢复及市场宏观 氛围影响，成交好转，主流生产企业待发增加，预计价格小幅上行。供应端四季度气头检修1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The destocking cycle of styrene has ended, and the basis has weakened again. Overseas gasoline crack spreads are weak, reducing the support of overseas gasoline blending for pure benzene. Although the peak of pure benzene arrivals in China has passed, there is still some arrival pressure, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The downstream styrene start - up has bottomed out and rebounded, while the non - styrene start - up is still poor. Styrene port inventories have rebounded again, entering the pre - holiday inventory accumulation cycle, and the downstream start - up has decreased again in the off - season [1][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 100 yuan/ton (+34), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 135 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). Styrene's main basis is 71 yuan/ton (+61 yuan/ton) [1] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 126 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton), and FOB Korea processing fee is 119 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton). Styrene's non - integrated production profit is - 190 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), with an expected gradual compression [1] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 27.30 tons (+1.30 tons). Styrene's East China port inventory is 139,300 tons (+4,600 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 84,550 tons (+2,250 tons). Pure benzene's downstream operating rates vary: caprolactam is 69.20% (- 5.37%), phenol is 76.00% (- 3.50%), aniline is 61.35% (- 14.59%), and adipic acid is 59.60% (+0.40%). Styrene's operating rate is 69.1% (+0.8%) [1] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 186 yuan/ton (+70 yuan/ton), PS production profit is 36 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 892 yuan/ton (+57 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 51.81% (- 1.96%), PS operating rate is 54.50% (- 3.80%), and ABS operating rate is 70.10% (- 0.43%) [2] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 350 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit is - 902 yuan/ton (+25), aniline production profit is 789 yuan/ton (+178), and adipic acid production profit is - 1018 yuan/ton (+0). Caprolactam operating rate is 69.20% (- 5.37%), phenol operating rate is 76.00% (- 3.50%), aniline operating rate is 61.35% (- 14.59%), and adipic acid operating rate is 59.60% (+0.40%) [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: None - Basis and inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high - Cross - variety: Short BZ2603 and long PX2605 [4]

流动性日报 | 2025-12-24 市场流动性概况 2025-12-23，股指板块成交5074.60亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.48%；持仓金额13152.63亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.74%；成交持仓比为38.60%。 国债板块成交4488.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+18.46%；持仓金额8094.01亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.35%；成交 持仓比为56.34%。 基本金属板块成交6099.80亿元，较上一交易日变动-22.04%；持仓金额7177.67亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.03%；成 交持仓比为93.99%。 黑色建材板块成交2080.38亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.30%；持仓金额3177.18亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.48%；成 交持仓比为59.15%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 流动性日报 贵金属板块成交9672.34亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.39%；持仓金额5691.61亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.79%；成 交持仓比为237.33%。 能源化工板块成交5029.42亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.10%；持仓金额4458.15亿元， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance of the first batch of L3-level highway autonomous driving vehicle special license plates in Beijing marks that China's autonomous vehicles have progressed from testing and demonstration to formal mass production, leading the way into the L3-level autonomous driving era, which is a milestone event in the automotive intelligentization process [1]. - The central government emphasizes the role of central enterprises in infrastructure construction, supply - chain autonomy, and technological self - reliance [1]. - The state has issued a notice to improve the kindergarten fee policy, including standardizing fee items and clarifying the principles for setting fee standards [2]. 3. Summary by Industry Directory Upstream - Energy: International crude oil prices have corrected, and liquefied natural gas prices have continued to decline [3]. - Chemical: The prices of PTA and urea have rebounded recently, while the price of polyethylene has declined [3]. Midstream - Chemical: The operating rate of chemical products has declined [4]. - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants has increased [4]. - Infrastructure: It is the off - season for asphalt construction [4]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have warmed up at the end of the year [4]. - Service: The number of domestic flight schedules has declined [4]. 4. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price (7/1) | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2365.7 yuan/ton | 0.85% | | | Spot price of eggs | 5.6 yuan/kg | - 4.62% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8600.0 yuan/ton | - 0.02% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15210.0 yuan/ton | 2.30% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 20.2 yuan/kg | - 0.44% | | | Spot price of copper | 80235.0 yuan/ton | 2.25% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22258.0 yuan/ton | 0.56% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of aluminum | 20786.7 yuan/ton | 1.14% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121700.0 yuan/ton | 1.64% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17018.8 yuan/ton | - 0.07% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3069.0 yuan/ton | - 0.07% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of iron ore | 726.6 yuan/ton | 0.48% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3252.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.9 yuan/square meter | 0.22% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 13928.3 yuan/ton | 2.88% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 826.7 | - 0.79% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 65.1 dollars/barrel | - 4.96% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 66.7 dollars/barrel | - 6.63% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4056.0 yuan/ton | 2.17% | | | Coal price | 726.0 yuan/ton | - 0.27% | | | Spot price of PTA | 5081.7 yuan/ton | - 0.63% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 7503.3 yuan/ton | - 0.90% | | Chemical | Spot price of urea | 1829.0 yuan/ton | 1.39% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1325.0 yuan/ton | - 1.85% | | | National cement price index | 137.2 | - 0.43% | | Real Estate | Building materials comprehensive index | 110.7 points | - 0.22% | | | National concrete price index | 96.7 points | - 1.58% | [38]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View The report focuses on whether overseas markets can re - enter the destocking cycle. Despite the closure of the export window due to overseas centralized delivery, the fundamentals remain bullish, with low zinc valuation and optimistic consumption expectations [4]. Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$33.43/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 100 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,020 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 15 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,990 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 23, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,030 yuan/ton and closed at 23,090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 133,845 lots, and the open interest was 93,107 lots. The highest price was 23,100 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,940 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of December 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 124,500 tons, up 0.23 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 98,975 tons, down 275 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Overseas inventory has slightly declined. Attention should be paid to whether actual consumption can support overseas markets to re - enter the destocking cycle after centralized delivery. In the spot market, downstream buyers purchase on demand, social inventory has stopped falling, and spot premiums are performing well. - The import window for zinc ore has opened, and domestic mine TC has stopped falling. After smelters' active winter storage, the enthusiasm for zinc ore procurement has decreased. - The comprehensive smelting loss of smelters has widened, and maintenance in December has increased, reducing supply pressure. - The consumption end remains strong. Although the export window has closed, the fundamentals are still bullish, zinc valuation is low, and consumption expectations are optimistic [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-24 氧化铝现货报价缓慢下调 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21870元/吨，较上一交易日变化-60元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21710元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-330元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21790元/吨，较上一交易日变化-70元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-245元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-23日沪铝主力合约开于22115元/吨，收于22195元/吨，较上一交易日变化-45元/吨，最 高价达22205元/吨，最低价达到21980元/吨。全天交易日成交209413手，全天交易日持仓301815手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存60.0万吨，较上一期变化2.2万吨，仓单库存76089 吨，较上一交易日变化1吨，LME铝库存519600吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-23SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2720元/吨，山东价格录得2650元/吨，河南价格录得 2740元/吨，广西价格录得2 ...