农产品日报 | 2025-09-11 晚熟富士即将下树，红枣产区降雨减少 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8130元/吨，较前一日变动+97元/吨，幅度+1.21%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-530，较前一日变动-97；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+1470，较前一日变动-97。 近期市场资讯，西部早熟富士交易逐渐上量交易，整体商品率较高，价格高于去年同期，好货价格表现稳硬，客 商采购积极。山东产区红将军仍在上色，库存富士成交尚可，客商拿货多以好货及性价比很高的货源为主。陕西 延安洛川产区早熟富士70#以上市场主流价格4.5元/斤，好货4.7-4.8元/斤，铲园价格4.0-4.1元/斤。 山东栖霞产区果 农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.3-3.0元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.3-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.0元/斤。山 东栖霞产区白果红将军80#起步1.6-1.8元/斤。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价收 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market is difficult to change, but in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the reduction of production capacity and national policy changes. For the egg market, the large supply pressure makes the festival boost weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market on the spot market [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2511 contract yesterday was 13,315 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day. Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 13.48 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.15 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets on September 10 was 19.91 yuan/kg, up 0.3% [1] Market Analysis - The weight - reducing slaughter of group farms has weakened the festival boost this year. The pig production capacity has remained at around 40.5 million heads for about a year, and with the improvement of production efficiency, there is room for capacity reduction in the future [2] Egg Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2510 contract yesterday was 3019 yuan/500 kg, down 41 yuan or 1.34% from the previous trading day. Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.27 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.55 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 3.11 yuan/jin, unchanged. On September 10, the national production - link inventory was 0.48 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.79 days, both unchanged from the previous day [3][4] Market Analysis - High - temperature weather in mid - and early August led to cautious purchasing. Egg prices rose slightly in late August due to downstream stocking for the start of school. In September, school demand recovered, but tourism and catering demand declined. Food - processing demand was strong in mid - and early September but weakened in late September. Overall demand decreased over time [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is under supply pressure, with the futures price of soybeans dropping significantly. This is due to multiple factors including increased production expectations in major global soybean - producing countries, rising port inventories, weak downstream consumption, competition from substitutes, international price transmission affected by Sino - US trade relations, and macro - economic slowdown [1][2] - The peanut market has a slow listing rhythm and weak demand. The short - term effective supply of new peanuts is difficult to increase significantly, and the demand side is still weak, with the slow start of double - festival stocking [3] Summary by Related Content Soybean Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 3911.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.00 yuan/ton (- 1.44%) compared to the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 309, an increase of 57 (+ 32.14%) compared to the previous day. New season soybeans in the Northeast are sporadically on the market, and the market expects prices to decline as new grains are gradually added. The transaction rate of Sinograin's domestic soybean two - way bidding transaction was 100%, with an average transaction price of 4376.9 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions in Heilongjiang remained stable [1] Strategy - Neutral [3] Peanut Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7794.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.18%) compared to the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8460.00 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was PK10 + 606.00, a decrease of 14.00 (- 2.26%) compared to the previous day. The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 4.23 yuan/jin, and prices in various markets were stable [3] - Market Situation: The peanut futures fluctuated narrowly. The short - term effective supply of new peanuts is difficult to increase significantly due to bad weather and low prices suppressing farmers' willingness to sell. The demand side is still weak, and the market is concerned about the purchasing trends of large food factories and oil mills [3] Strategy - Neutral [4] Risk - Demand weakening [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4] Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamental supply - demand pattern is good. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The sharp decline in the market on the day was mainly affected by the expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines. The mid - term supply - demand shows an over - supply cycle, and the market may be weak and volatile after the mine resumes production and consumption support weakens [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 69,040 yuan/ton and closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, with a - 4.87% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 751,480 lots, and the open interest was 340,814 lots (351,340 lots the previous day). The current basis was 3,330 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,101 lots with no change from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,500 - 75,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,600 - 71,800 yuan/ton, both down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 805 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The downstream material factories' price - fixing enthusiasm increased significantly. In September, the market showed simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and the overall supply of lithium carbonate was still tight. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, while that from lithium mica decreased to 15% [1] Strategy - The short - term supply - demand pattern is good. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increases, and that from mica decreases in the short term. The consumption end is in the peak season with good downstream production schedules. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The mid - term over - supply cycle remains unchanged, and the market may be weak and volatile later [2]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the economic policy promotion in the second half of the year, including the mid - level event overview of production and service industries, and the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream situations of the industry. It also provides price index data of key industries [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will carry out a 3 - month special rectification action on network chaos in the automotive industry to improve the handling efficiency of network chaos of automotive enterprises [1]. - **Service Industry**: The National Development and Reform Commission will maintain policy continuity and stability, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations. It will implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, evaluate policy implementation, and promote capacity governance in key industries [1]. 2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices are continuously declining, and egg prices are continuously rising [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The polyester start - up rate is rising, and the coal consumption of power plants is increasing [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities are slightly rising, and the number of international flights is decreasing [4]. 3. Key Industry Price Indexes | Industry | Index Name | Price on 9/10 | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2308.6 yuan/ton | 0.25% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.2 yuan/kg | 10.51% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 9380.0 yuan/ton | - 1.18% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15293.8 yuan/ton | - 1.08% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 19.9 yuan/kg | - 0.65% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | 79776.7 yuan/ton | - 0.73% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22080.0 yuan/ton | - 0.63% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 20693.3 yuan/ton | - 0.24% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121766.7 yuan/ton | - 0.30% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16781.3 yuan/ton | - 0.11% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3139.5 yuan/ton | - 0.48% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of iron ore | 800.1 yuan/ton | 1.32% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3315.0 yuan/ton | - 0.23% | | | Spot price of glass | 14.3 yuan/square meter | 2.67% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 15150.0 yuan/ton | 0.66% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 796.6 | - 0.72% | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 62.6 dollars/barrel | - 4.51% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 66.4 dollars/barrel | - 3.98% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3886.0 yuan/ton | - 0.15% | | | Coal price of coal | 777.0 yuan/ton | - 0.64% | | | Spot price of PTA | 4649.2 yuan/ton | - 2.11% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 7391.7 yuan/ton | - 0.45% | | | Spot price of urea | 1693.8 yuan/ton | - 1.09% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real Estate | Cement price index of the whole country | 130.6 | 0.97% | | | Building materials comprehensive index | 113.2 points | 0.04% | | | Concrete price index of the national index | 92.6 points | - 0.28% | [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, with short - term support for domestic cotton prices but potential pressure during new flower listing. Sugar prices are facing short - term downward pressure but limited downside due to low domestic inventory. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to weak fundamentals [2][5][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,210 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,286 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton [1] - Floods in Pakistan's Punjab province damaged about 35% of cotton crops, with 40 - 50% damage in the largest producing area, Bahawalnagar [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, India's extended tariff exemption supports US cotton. The USDA's August report tightened the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but some production adjustments may be incomplete. US cotton's upside is limited by slow export sales. Domestically, cotton de - stocking is fast, commercial inventory is low, and short - term price support is strong. New - year production increase expectations are high, but there may be early - stage grabbing and later - stage hedging pressure [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term support for Zhengzhou cotton is strong before new flower listing, but there may be pressure during the new flower concentration period [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,535 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.31%). The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,880 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,835 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [3] - Inner Mongolia's first sugar factory is expected to start production on September 8, 4 days earlier than last year, with an estimated output of 70 - 750,000 tons [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar is under pressure due to production increases in Brazil and the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar has been weak due to abundant short - term supply from imports and concerns about syrup policy relaxation [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Domestic sugar prices may bottom - consolidate due to low inventory [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,996 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (+0.52%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,690 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The imported wood pulp spot market was generally stable, with only sporadic price drops [6] Market Analysis - Overseas pulp mill production cuts have not significantly changed the supply pattern. Domestic pulp production capacity is increasing, but high port inventory maintains supply pressure. Demand is weak both overseas and domestically, with low terminal demand and low paper mill operating rates [7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to weak fundamentals [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current market trading volume is approximately 2 trillion yuan, showing a significant contraction. The market adjustment trend has not ended, the current index adjustment is insufficient, and it will take time for market risks to be released. During this period, it is not advisable to rush to bottom - fishing, and hedging risks through stock index futures can be considered [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - In China, in August, CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year with the growth rate expanding for the 4th consecutive month. PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and was flat month - on - month, ending the 8 - month downward trend. In the US, in August, PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, turning negative for the first time in four months, and increased by 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.3%. The US Labor Department's Inspector General's Office is launching a review focusing on CPI and PPI information collection and employment data issues [1]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - A - share major indices fluctuated and closed in the positive territory. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to close at 3812.22 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.27%. Sector indices showed mixed performance, with communication, electronics, media, and social services sectors leading the gains, and power equipment, basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and coal sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased to 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs [2][12]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the basis of IH rebounded. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volumes of IH, IF, and IM increased, and the open interests of IF, IC, and IM rose. The specific trading volume and open interest data are as follows: IF trading volume was 130,680 (an increase of 9,016), open interest was 275,475 (an increase of 7,307); IH trading volume was 53,249 (an increase of 550), open interest was 95,887 (a decrease of 93); IC trading volume was 134,597 (a decrease of 3,849), open interest was 247,388 (an increase of 1,732); IM trading volume was 275,094 (an increase of 21,363), open interest was 383,703 (an increase of 3,043) [2][14]. - The basis data of stock index futures are also provided. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 12.96 (a decrease of 2.90), and that of IH was - 1.79 (an increase of 1.44) [39]. - The inter - period spread data of stock index futures are presented. For instance, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 9.60 (a decrease of 2.60), and that of IH was - 1.60 (a decrease of 2.00) [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC fluctuates mainly with macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase, demand remains weak, exports are expected to decline in Q4, inventory is accumulating, and there is still room to compress chlor - alkali profits. The short - term trend is macro - led, and policy progress needs attention [3]. - Caustic soda spot prices are stable with a slight decline. Supply increases, demand from major downstream industries varies, and cost support remains. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment rhythms and Guangxi alumina production start - up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,857 yuan/ton (+10), the East China basis is - 207 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China basis is - 97 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,650 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit is - 14 yuan/ton (+50), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 421 yuan/ton (-22), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 671 yuan/ton (-43), and the PVC export profit is 14.7 dollars/ton (+1.7) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: PVC factory inventory is 31.6 million tons (+0.4), social inventory is 53.3 million tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.65% (+2.41%), the ethylene method operation rate is 72.59% (+3.93%), and the overall operation rate is 76.18% (+2.85%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.1 million tons (-2.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,576 yuan/ton (+7), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 143 yuan/ton (-7) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1,360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 824.5 yuan/ton (-120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 542.53 yuan/ton (-70.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.78 million tons (+0.83), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 million tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.20% (+1.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 84.38% (-1.20%), the dyeing operation rate in East China is 65.63% (+0.90%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 87.10% (+1.08%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Domestic PVC plant overhauls continue to decrease, and supply is expected to increase. With new production capacity coming on - stream, supply remains abundant [3]. - Demand: Downstream product operation rates remain low, with enterprises making rigid purchases. Attention should be paid to downstream raw material replenishment willingness during the peak season. Export orders and deliveries decline, and Q4 export expectations weaken due to Indian policies [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory level is high. Futures warehouse receipts are rising, and hedging pressure suppresses prices [3]. - Profit: There is still room to compress chlor - alkali profits, and supply - demand remains weak. "Anti - involution" affects the market, and the short - term market is macro - led [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The operation rate of chlor - alkali enterprises increases slightly and is at a high level [3]. - Demand: The purchase price of Shandong's main downstream alumina factories is stable, and delivery volume is rising. Attention should be paid to purchase prices and pre - holiday stocking demand. Non - aluminum downstream operation rates increase, with rigid purchases [3]. - Cost: Shandong's electricity price increases slightly in September, and downstream resistance emerges after the reduction of liquid chlorine subsidies. It is expected that liquid chlorine subsidies will increase, and cost support remains [3]. - Profit: Chlor - alkali profits are at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment [4]. - Inter - delivery: Recommend gradually building long positions in the positive spread when V01 - 05 is below - 300 [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread on dips [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The release of MPOB data has put pressure on Malaysian palm oil prices. The overall report is bearish as palm oil exports are lower than expected and inventory continues to increase. Additionally, recent actions by US senators against transferring small refinery blending obligations to large refineries may suppress biodiesel consumption, further pressuring overall oil prices [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,244 yuan/ton, a decrease of 242 yuan or 2.55% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 152 yuan or 1.81% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan or 0.82% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan or 1.38%. The spot basis was P01 + 26 yuan, an increase of 112 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.59%. The spot basis was Y01 + 204 yuan, an increase of 102 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.80%. The spot basis was OI01 + 200 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan [1] Malaysian Palm Oil Data - In August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2,202,534 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.18% [2] - Palm oil production was 1,855,008 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.35% [2] - Palm oil exports were 1,324,672 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29% [2] - Palm oil imports were 49,036 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 19.66% [2] - From September 1 - 10, ITS data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports were 476,610 tons, a 1.2% decrease from the same period last month [2] - AmSpec data showed that exports were 415,030 tons, an 8.43% decrease from the same period last month [2] Other Market Information - Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia's 2025 wheat production from 86.1 million tons to 87.2 million tons. The total production of grains and beans is now expected to be 134.9 million tons, up from 130.5 million tons [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) decreased by 18 dollars/ton to 1,146 dollars/ton, and the December shipment price decreased by 26 dollars/ton to 1,142 dollars/ton [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged at 1,070 dollars/ton and 1,050 dollars/ton respectively [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 464 dollars/ton, the US West soybeans decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 444 dollars/ton, and Brazilian soybeans decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 487 dollars/ton [2] - The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (October shipment) remained unchanged at 235 cents/bushel, the US West Coast remained unchanged at 178 cents/bushel, and the Brazilian port decreased by 1 cent/bushel to 297 cents/bushel [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The weaker-than-expected US PPI data reinforces the expectation of the Fed's shift to easing in September, and the market may trade on the expectation of more-than-expected easing. Gold prices are expected to be in a strong oscillatory pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 810 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver has a similar macro logic to gold and benefits from its industrial attributes. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a strong oscillatory pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,600 yuan/kilogram and 10,100 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis - In macro data, the US PPI decreased 0.1% month-on-month in August, turning negative for the first time in four months, with an expected increase of 0.3%; year-on-year, it rose 2.6%, while the expected was to remain flat at 3.3%. This may strengthen the Fed's motivation to cut interest rates at the September meeting [1]. - The US Supreme Court will quickly review the legitimacy of most tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with oral arguments scheduled for the first week of November. The Trump administration can continue to implement relevant tariff policies before the final judgment [1]. - Indian Prime Minister Modi said that India and the US are working to complete trade negotiations as soon as possible, and the negotiations will unleash the "unlimited potential" of the bilateral partnership. He also looks forward to meeting with US President Trump [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai gold主力 contract opened at 834.06 yuan/gram and closed at 833.42 yuan/gram, a change of -0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 836.62 yuan/gram and closed at 835.16 yuan/gram, up 0.21% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai silver主力 contract opened at 9,798.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,796.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 485,859 lots, and the open interest was 212,530 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,803 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,817 yuan/kilogram, up 0.21% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 10, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.051%, down 0.39 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.507%, down 0.23 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On September 10, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 257 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 278 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 525,000 lots, a change of 11.58% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,066,280 lots, a change of -0.10% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 979.95 tons yesterday, an increase of 0.27 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,069.6 tons, a decrease of 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 10, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.06 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -751.75 yuan/kilogram [6]. - The price ratio of the Shanghai gold and silver主力 contracts was about 85.08 yesterday, a change of 0.38% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.58, a change of 1.06% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 10, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 49,162 kilograms, a change of -21.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 566,582 kilograms, a change of 47.34% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 20,082 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 14,880 kilograms [7].