Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price has rebounded from the low level recently, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the downward pressure on the unilateral prices of FU and LU from the crude oil end will continue [1] - The current fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors, and the overall contradiction is limited. The cracking spread of high-sulfur fuel oil has shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding after a sharp correction [1] - The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase due to changes in the maintenance status of refineries. The short-term market pressure may be limited, but the overall supply is abundant, and the valuation will be continuously suppressed [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 2.14% at 2,483 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.42% at 2,999 yuan/ton [1] - The improvement in processing profit has boosted the demand from downstream refineries, and fuel oil can be used as a supplement if there is a problem with the supply of diluted bitumen. The shipments from Russia and Iran decreased again in December, and drone attacks and sanctions remain constraints on supply [1] - Due to changes in the maintenance status of refineries (Azur and Dangote), the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase. Azur Refinery's CDU unit and desulfurization unit have restarted or are expected to restart. Kuwait is expected to ship the first batch of low-sulfur fuel oil cargo on December 27, with an expected export volume of 47,000 tons in December [2] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - No strategies are proposed for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, and options [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current price of lithium carbonate is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. There is a phenomenon of divergence between futures and spot markets, and the short - term increase is too large, so the risk of a callback should be vigilant [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 23, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 113,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,360 yuan/ton, with a 5.67% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 731,003 lots, and the open interest was 671,573 lots, up from 668,829 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 18,060 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 16,651 lots, a change of 240 lots from the previous day [2] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 96,400 - 102,600 yuan/ton, a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 95,100 - 98,600 yuan/ton, also a change of 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,420 US dollars/ton, a change of 35 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - The expectation of the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo continues to ferment. The SMM weekly inventory reduction is less than expected but still supports the strong trend. The total spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventory is 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The overall inventory reduction in December is expected to continue, but the reduction has slowed down [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises. There are no strategies for inter - period and cross - variety operations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PA Alliance's prices are expected to be adjusted gradually in the first half - month, and the EC2602 contract is in a situation where the peak time of freight rates is being speculated. The 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate, while the 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [1][6][9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Price - As of December 23, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1806.60, EC2604 contract is 1158.00, EC2606 contract is 1331.70, EC2608 contract is 1480.00, EC2610 contract is 1052.00, and EC2512 contract is 1606.00. The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate, and the 02 - contract will gradually follow the real - world quotes, with the current speculation point being whether the first half - month of January is the end of this round of freight rate increase [6][8][9] 3.2 Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping alliances and companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes changed from 1580/2540 in the first week of January to 1560/2500 in the second week; HPL's price increased from 1535/2535 in the second half of December to 2135/3535 in the first half of January. Other alliances and companies also have corresponding price changes [1] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 2 - week monthly average capacity is 314,500 TEU, with capacities of 301,000/327,900 TEU in WEEK52/53 respectively. In January, the monthly average capacity is 304,600 TEU, and in February, it is 284,700 TEU. There are also empty - sailings and TBNs in different months and alliances. In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries, with 250 ships delivered and a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU [4][8] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Israel's remarks on building settlements in the Gaza Strip may damage the peace - making efforts and the cooperation intention of Arab countries. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract", including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Not provided in the content other than the potential impact of geopolitical factors on the market and the relationship between supply and demand reflected in the shipping prices and capacity [3] 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: The 12 - contract oscillates, and the 2 - month contract oscillates with a slight upward bias. Arbitrage: None [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is continuously abundant, the demand is in the off - season, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from supply - demand contradiction, although the cost support has increased [3]. - For PP, the supply pressure is expected to be less than that of PE, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited, with the cost support increasing [4]. - The strategy suggests to cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices, to wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations, and to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6296元/吨（+56），PP主力合约收盘价为6158元/吨（+39），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6120元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-96元/吨（-106），LL华东基差为74元/吨（-86），PP华东基差为-38元/吨（-69） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为-55.9元/吨（-117.5），PP油制生产利润为-545.9元/吨（-117.5），PDH制PP生产利润为-714.1元/吨（-84.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为-127.5元/吨（+4.3），PP进口利润为-271.6元/吨（-55.8），PP出口利润为-6.4美元/吨（+7.0） [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply remains high with limited planned maintenance at the end of the year and low maintenance in Q1 next year, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Demand enters the off - season with declining downstream开工率. Inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The cost support has increased, but the supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price [3]. - **PP**: Short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited changes. Supply is still under pressure, but there may be a slow reduction in supply due to potential production cuts. Demand has limited order follow - up, and only BOPP provides some support. Inventory is high. The cost support has increased, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices; wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-24 债市情绪改善，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压 力不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上 更加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-24 EG延续累库，供应回升下仍承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3623元/吨（较前一交易日变动-112元/吨，幅度-3.00%），EG华东市场现货价 3522元/吨（较前一交易日变动-93元/吨，幅度-2.57%），EG华东现货基差-5元/吨（环比-1元/吨），长丝有减产可能， EG加速下跌。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-98美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-974 元/吨（环比+14元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.7万吨（环比-13.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨， 副港到港量3万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.8万吨，副港到港量2.7万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡 略累。 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，地缘变化超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应 ...

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The industrial silicon market has bottomed out and rebounded, while the sentiment in the polysilicon market has subsided. The industrial silicon spot price is basically stable, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after production cuts in the southwest, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. The polysilicon market has poor supply - demand performance, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure [1][3][4][6] Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On December 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated higher. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,600 yuan/ton and closed at 8,780 yuan/ton, a change of 145 yuan/ton (1.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2601 was 213,776 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 22, 2025, was 9,175 lots, a change of 156 lots from the previous day [1] Supply Side - The industrial silicon spot price was basically stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was also 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable. As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of - 1.43% from the previous week [1] Consumption Side - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. The weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable, with an expected production of around 114,000 tons in December, a slight decrease from November. The weekly production scheduling of silicone fluctuated slightly compared with the previous week, with a possible reduction of about 5,000 tons in industrial silicon consumption in December. In November 2025, China's exports of primary - form polysiloxanes of silicone were 47,000 tons, a 15.82% increase from the previous month and a 10.39% increase from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports were 507,600 tons, a 2.28% increase from the same period last year [2] Strategy - The spot price is basically stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. It is recommended to conduct short - term range operations, and there is no suggestion for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On December 23, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 58,580 yuan/ton and closing at 59,225 yuan/ton, a - 0.91% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 131,603 lots (134,949 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 153,313 lots [4] Supply and Inventory - The polysilicon spot price was basically stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 293,000 tons, with a 0.00% change from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 21.50 GW, a - 7.73% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 25,000 tons, a - 0.40% change, and the silicon wafer output was 10.67 GW, a - 12.18% change [4] Product Prices - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [4][5] Strategy - The supply - demand performance of polysilicon is poor, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market realities. After the establishment of platform companies, the intensity of production and sales restrictions needs to be monitored. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct short - term range operations, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. There is no suggestion for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish. PTA and PX 5 - 9 calendar spread is recommended for long position in the 5 - month contract and short position in the 9 - month contract [6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and there is a risk of price retracement when capital reduces positions. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load and capital trends [6] - In the medium - long term, as the period of concentrated PTA capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Data - With the strong rise of PTA, filament factories' losses have intensified. Three mainstream filament manufacturers will implement an additional 10% production cut for POY this Wednesday, and continue the previous 15% production cut for FDY, with supervision and inspection arrangements [2] Market Analysis Cost Side - Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil has rebounded. Venezuela has become the short - term market focus. However, in Q1 next year, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices. Recently, due to overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year, liquidity may disrupt the phased market [3] PX - The PXN was $352/ton two trading days ago (a month - on - month increase of $17/ton). PX units are operating smoothly. With good expectations for the first half of next year, PXN has risen significantly. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, PX operating rates can be effectively maintained even if some refineries' reforming units have operating fluctuations. Recently, the PX calendar spread has strengthened significantly supported by the delivery logic. There will be many PX maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year, and the long - term outlook is good. Meanwhile, with the strong polyester operating rate, PXN has support. In terms of blending for gasoline, the gasoline crack spread has not improved significantly, but the US has started to stockpile aromatics. Attention should be paid to capital trends and changes in downstream polyester load [3] TA - The spot basis of the TA主力 contract is -17 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 146 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the processing fee of the主力 contract on the futures market is 305 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton). Recently, downstream raw material inventories have dropped to a low level, and the replenishment demand of polyester factories at low prices has increased significantly, driving the spot market basis to gradually strengthen. There are many near - term maintenance plans, and India's cancellation of BIS regulations has boosted PTA export demand. Supported by polyester load, the balance sheet will show inventory reduction in December, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January, which is better than previously expected. In the long run, as the period of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [4] Demand - The polyester operating rate is 91.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%). Recently, the weaving load has declined rapidly. Since the end of November, domestic orders have weakened rapidly, and grey fabric inventories have started to accumulate rapidly. Although samples for spring - summer orders next year or foreign trade orders have been made one after another, large - scale orders have not been placed yet. It is expected that the operating rate will decline more rapidly from late December. Attention should be paid to the placement of subsequent foreign trade orders. In terms of polyester, the polyester load remains strong, the profit pressure of filament is increasing, but the inventory pressure is acceptable. After the inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased, the load has rebounded. In the short term, the risk of a significant decline in the polyester load is not large, and it is expected to remain around 91%. The decline in the polyester load is expected to occur around January [4] PF - The spot production profit is 142 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 32 yuan/ton). There are no significant changes in the fundamentals of direct - spun polyester staple fiber, and the inventory is at a low level. As raw material prices rise rapidly, the processing margin is under pressure. On the demand side, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn are average, the load has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly [5] PR - The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - chips is 423 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 9 yuan/ton). Polyester bottle - chip factories have raised prices following the increase in raw material prices, and the overall processing range has been compressed to below 500 yuan. In terms of fundamentals, the bottle - chip load remains unchanged, but as the inventory of bottle - chip factories has declined, the load has rebounded. In addition, a new 300,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip plant of Shandong Fuhai has started production. In the future, there is a possibility of an increase in bottle - chip supply. In the short term, the processing range of polyester bottle - chips is expected to be limited, and the market price will fluctuate with raw materials [5] Strategy Unilateral Strategy - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish. In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and there is a risk of price retracement when capital reduces positions. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load [6] Cross - Variety Strategy - None [7] Calendar Spread Strategy - Go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 9 - month contract for PTA and PX [7]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Lead prices are oscillating at low levels, with declining inventories and reduced production of secondary lead providing support, but the spot market is weakening towards the year - end. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,100 yuan per ton. In actual operations, it is currently recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On December 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.89 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan to 1,6875 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin lead spot prices and premiums also changed by 50 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan per ton, while the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells changed by 50 yuan, 25 yuan, and 0 yuan per ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On December 23, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,920 yuan per ton and closed at 16,995 yuan per ton, up 75 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 44,610 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 58,086 lots, a decrease of 1,500 lots. During the night session, it opened at 17,030 yuan per ton and closed at 17,050 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan from the afternoon close. Near the end of the year, some traders stopped trading for inventory checks after selling out their stocks, and downstream buyers mainly consumed inventories or took delivery of long - term contracts, resulting in overall light market trading [2] - **Inventory**: On December 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the previous week. As of December 23, the LME lead inventory was 253,100 tons, a decrease of 2,675 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies. The expected trading range for the main contract is 16,750 - 17,100 yuan per ton [4] - **Options Strategy**: Sell a wide straddle [4]

贵金属日报 | 2025-12-24 哈塞特再次放鸽 贵金属价格延续强势 市场分析 经济数据方面，美国第三季度实际GDP初值年化季环比大幅增长4.3%，远超市场预期的增长3.3%，增速创两年来 最快。消费支出强劲成为增长的最大推手，当季增速大幅加快至3.5%。三季度核心PCE物价指数上涨2.9%。另外， 美国10月核心资本品订单与出货量双双回升。此外，被视为美联储主席热门人选的哈塞特认为，人工智能繁荣在 推动经济增长的同时压低了通胀，美国在降息节奏上远远落后于全球其他央行。 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为1,064.56吨，较前一交易日持平。截止到12月22日，白银ETF持仓为16,599吨， 较前一交易日增加533吨。 贵金属套利跟踪： 期现价差：2025-12-23，国内溢价方面，昨日黄金国内溢价为-12.18元/克，白银国内溢价为-1275.77元/千克。金银 比价：昨日上期所金银主力合约价格比约为61.69，较前一交易日变动-0.09%，外盘金银比价为63.65，较上一交易 日变化0.91%。 基本面： 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-23，沪金主力合约开于999.36元/克，收于1014 ...