Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [12] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is weak, and with the recent increase in domestic arrivals, rubber prices have been continuously declining. Although the supply in overseas main - producing areas is in the peak season, domestic arrivals are expected to maintain a certain growth rate, and domestic inventories are likely to further increase. However, due to rainfall disturbances in overseas main - producing areas, raw material prices are firm, and the cost - side support for natural rubber is still strong, which may limit the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand driving force is insufficient, and prices mostly follow the surrounding market sentiment [12] - The main factor driving the recent decline in butadiene rubber prices is the drag from the cost side. The price of its upstream raw material, butadiene, has shown a weak trend due to increased supply and weakened demand. Although the production profit of butadiene rubber has improved recently, offsetting some of the support from the concentrated maintenance of upstream devices, with the resilient downstream demand and the relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,875 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 11,960 yuan/ton, a change of - 240 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,205 yuan/ton, a change of - 155 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,690 US dollars/ton, a change of - 30 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - **Heavy - truck Market**: In October 2025, the wholesale sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. It is expected that after November, the cumulative sales will exceed 1 million vehicles [2] - **Global Natural Rubber**: According to the ANRPC's September 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - **China's Natural Rubber Imports**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - **Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total exports of natural rubber to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. The monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [4] - **China's Rubber Tire Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [4] - **EU Passenger Car Market**: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 4, 2025, the RU basis was - 425 yuan/ton (+ 70), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 475 yuan/ton (- 20), the NR basis was 941.00 yuan/ton (+ 172.00); the price of whole latex was 14,450 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 550 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (- 200) [6] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.00 Thai baht/kg (- 1.00), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40) [7] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [8] - **Inventories**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+ 15,439), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,038,951 tons (- 11,478), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (- 3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+ 2,015) [8] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 4, 2025, the BR basis was - 105 yuan/ton (- 45), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (- 300), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,850 yuan/ton (- 200), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,443 yuan/ton (- 158) [9] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.90% (- 4.81%) [10] - **Inventories**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PE is under pressure due to prominent supply - demand contradictions. High supply, limited demand from sectors like agricultural films, and weak cost - end support lead to continued weak and volatile trends [2]. - PP also faces supply - demand contradictions. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6879元/吨（-9）, PP主力合约收盘价为6560元/吨（-16）. LL华北现货为6870元/吨（-20）, LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50）, PP华东现货为6530元/吨（-50）. LL华北基差为 - 9元/吨（-11）, LL华东基差为71元/吨（-41）, PP华东基差为 - 30元/吨（-34） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为272.7元/吨（-10.7）, PP油制生产利润为 - 387.3元/吨（-10.7）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 109.5元/吨（+42.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为 - 7.0元/吨（-25.8）, PP进口利润为 - 255.7元/吨（+37.1）, PP出口利润为 - 15.8美元/吨（+0.7） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply - side pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and the release of new production capacities. Demand growth may slow down, and cost - end support is expected to weaken. PE will continue weak and volatile [2]. - **PP**: Supply - demand contradictions exist. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE is neutral; PP is recommended to be cautiously shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - term**: L01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices; PP01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [3].

农产品日报 | 2025-11-05 美豆持续上涨，豆粕宽幅震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3015元/吨，较前日变动-11元/吨，幅度-0.36%；菜粕2601合约2497元/吨，较前 日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.24%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M01+45， 较前日变动+1；江苏地区豆粕现货2970元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M01-45，较前日变动-9；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2980元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M01-35，较前日变动+1。福建地区菜粕现货价格2690 元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM01+193，较前日变动+4。 近期市场资讯，11月3日，美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2025年10月30日当周，美国大豆出口检 验量为96.5万吨，此前市场预估为870-140万吨，前一周修正后为116万吨，初值为106万吨。11月3日，农业咨询机 构AgRural称，截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植率达到预期播种面积的47%，不及去年同期的54%，前一 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-05 华东下游11月液碱采购价下调 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4670元/吨（-10）；华东基差-70元/吨（+10）;华南基差-10元/吨（-10）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4600元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4660元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格740元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-763元/吨（-40）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-545元/吨（+16）；PVC出口利润0.5美元/吨（+4.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.8万吨（+0.4）；PVC社会库存54.5万吨（-1.0）；PVC电石法开工率76.47%（+4.82%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.50%（-0.06%）；PVC开工率77.09%（+3.35%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量77.4万吨（+13.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2336元/吨（-14）；山东32%液碱基差164元/吨（+14）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is weak, leading to a decline in the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets. For industrial silicon, the current low valuation may present an opportunity for price increases if relevant policies are introduced. For polysilicon, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with limited upside potential and expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation [3][7]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,130 yuan/ton and closed at 8,885 yuan/ton, a change of - 210 yuan/ton (- 2.31%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 242,153 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 45,823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. In November, the supply is expected to increase as some maintenance devices resume production, while demand shows no significant change, resulting in an oversupply situation. Although the cost of industrial silicon has been oscillating slightly upward recently, it can only provide short - term support for the price of DMC and cannot drive a substantial price rebound [1][2]. - In October 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons (7.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 17,600 tons (4%). From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 3.4699 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6% [1]. Strategy - The intraday correction was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. Production cuts started in the southwest at the end of October, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is currently oscillating based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If relevant policies on capacity exit are introduced, there may be room for price increases. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 56,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,715 yuan/ton, a 3.91% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 128,876 lots (143,844 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 274,348 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%, and the silicon wafer production was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. In October, the polysilicon production was about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and production is expected to decline [4][5]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with significant inventory pressure. Both supply and demand may decrease starting in November. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. Policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. It is expected that relevant policies will be introduced this year. Without significant improvement in consumer demand, the upside potential of the futures market is limited, and it is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 and 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: In the short - term, the upside of cotton prices is limited due to factors such as potential entry of hedging positions after price increases, weak downstream demand, and concentrated new cotton listing. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and consumption resilience, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases [2][3] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle with an oversupply pattern, limiting the rebound of raw sugar. For domestic sugar, there is an expectation of increased production in the new season, and the price is near the cost line. It is expected to fluctuate by the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [5][6] - **Pulp**: The supply of pulp remains loose with high port inventories, and demand is weak both globally and domestically. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter should be noted [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,640 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,841 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. As of October 31, 2025/26 in Pakistan, the cumulative listed volume of new - season seed cotton in terms of lint was about 688,000 tons, an increase of 3.4% year - on - year [2] Market Analysis - Internationally, Sino - US negotiations have made progress, but the amount of US cotton that China will purchase is unclear. The release of key data is delayed, and there is a short - term supply pressure due to the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the new - season cotton market starts with low inventory, and the supply is supplemented by new cotton. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, but there are factors such as potential hedging positions and weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - In the short - term, there is a possibility of a callback. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5481 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.33%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5680 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Conab estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season would be 4.134 million tons, higher than the previous forecast [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar prices are under pressure from oversupply. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined in the short - term, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle [5] Strategy - The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited by factors such as cost and policies. It is expected to fluctuate by the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5288 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import pulp spot market prices were mostly stable with some fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' production reduction and price increase plans have limited impact on the overall supply pattern, and domestic port inventories remain high. Demand: Consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and domestic demand is the core factor suppressing prices. Even in the peak season, downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. Affected by the Sino - Canadian trade tariff friction, the prices of rapeseed oils were firm. However, the production side of palm oil remained relatively loose. Coupled with the impact of export data, the expectation of inventory accumulation increased, and there were certain uncertainties in the B50 policy, leading to the oscillatory adjustment of oil and fat prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,616.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan or 0.55% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,108.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.00 yuan or 0.02%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,443.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.00 yuan or 0.29% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.58%, and the spot basis was P01 - 116.00, a decrease of 2.00 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,320.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 60.00 yuan/ton or 0.73%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 212.00, an increase of 62.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,790.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.51%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 347.00, a decrease of 23.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market News - Logistics: The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Logistics Prosperity Index for October. In October, the index remained in the expansion range, with sub - indexes such as the business volume index, new order index, and capital turnover index all in the prosperity range. The index was 50.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Although the logistics business volume index had a slight decline, the overall demand remained in expansion [2] - Agriculture: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on autumn sowing in the Huang - Huai - Hai region. The wheat output in this region accounts for about 90% of the national total. Continuous rainy weather has delayed the sowing period and slowed down the progress, posing challenges to the safe overwintering of winter wheat. The meeting emphasized efforts to ensure the sowing of winter wheat and rapeseed, and strengthen support and guarantee for autumn and winter sowing [2] - Overseas Agriculture: As of November 4, Ukrainian farmers had sown 5.9 million hectares of winter crops for the 2026 harvest, accounting for about 90% of the expected planting area. Farmers plan to expand the winter grain sowing area in 2026 to at least 5.43 million hectares, higher than 5.24 million hectares in 2025 [2] - Inventory: As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil was 573,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons or 4.72% from the previous week; the contract volume was 45,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 27.30% from the previous week [2] - Import Price: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was 518 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 528 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1,116 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 26 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,126 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,080 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The U.S. government shutdown has tied the historical record, and the precious metals market continues to oscillate weakly. With the fading of market risk aversion, the demand for gold investment may slightly decline. The gold price is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern, and the silver price is also showing an oscillatory situation. The Fed's interest rate cut path has widened in December, and short-term risk aversion catalysts have weakened [1][8]. Market Analysis - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered the 35th day, tying the longest shutdown record in U.S. history. The Democrats and Republicans have been deadlocked, and the Senate has failed to pass a temporary appropriation bill in 13 votes. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the case of whether Trump's tariff policy is legal this Wednesday, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary will go to the Supreme Court to emphasize the importance of tariffs [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 921.90 yuan/gram and closed at 915.58 yuan/gram, a change of -0.76% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 908.92 yuan/gram, down 0.73% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,455.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,238.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -1.89% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 783,853 lots, and the open interest was 257,090 lots. The night session closed at 11,226 yuan/kilogram, down 0.11% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 4, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.081%, a decrease of 2.91 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.511%, a change of +0.58 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On November 4, 2025, on the Au2512 contract, the long position decreased by 5,262 lots compared to the previous day, and the short position decreased by 2,315 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 332,993 lots, a change of -2.42% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long position decreased by 2,987 lots, and the short position decreased by 365 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 783,853 lots, a change of 4.23% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.78 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,190 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 4, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 4.18 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -825.36 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.47, a change of 1.16% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 81.88, a change of -0.93% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 64,372 kilograms, a change of -4.71% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 659,480 kilograms, a change of 25.52% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to oscillate, and the Au2512 contract's oscillation range may be between 890 yuan/gram and 940 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The price is oscillating, and the Ag2512 contract's oscillation range may be between 11,000 yuan/kilogram and 11,600 yuan/kilogram [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The sharp decline in the lithium carbonate futures market on November 4, 2025, was mainly affected by the expected resumption of production at the mining end of large factories, the inflection point of inventory and consumption in the first - quarter off - season, and the weak overall commodity sentiment. Although the recent inventory has been continuously depleted, providing some support to the market, the upstream hedging willingness is strong at 82,000 yuan/ton, while the downstream procurement willingness decreases. The follow - up focus should be on the consumption and inventory inflection points. If consumption weakens and mining production resumes, inventory may shift from depletion to accumulation, and the market may experience a significant correction [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 82,700 yuan/ton and closed at 78,560 yuan/ton, with a - 4.34% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 975,978 lots, and the open interest was 457,374 lots, compared with 525,184 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 1,040 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 800 lots to 26,490 lots compared with the previous trading day [1]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 79,400 - 82,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 78,100 - 79,300 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 945 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous day. When the futures price dropped below 80,000 yuan/ton, some post - pricing transactions were closed [1]. - In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of spodumene and salt lake ends both above 60%, becoming the main supply sources. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change. In terms of demand, the power market of new energy vehicles in both commercial and passenger segments is growing rapidly; the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, and the supply remains tight [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the inventory and consumption inflection points and choose the opportunity to sell for hedging at high prices [2]. - **Cross - period**: None [3]. - **Cross - variety**: None [3]. - **Spot - futures**: None [3]. - **Options**: None [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory remains high, and the arrival pressure in November is still significant. The overseas supply pressure is large as Iran has not announced winter inspections. Attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the December Fude maintenance plan and the opening of the window for methanol to flow back to the mainland as port prices fall [3] - The mainland inventory is continuously accumulating. Mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. The coal - based methanol start - up rate has further increased in November, and the mainland inventory has been rebuilt from a low level. The demand from mainland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The mainland is also in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the degree of support for the port remains to be observed [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - term structure, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) compared with the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The report includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated ones) [6][35][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - There are figures showing regional price differences, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][40][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][53][59]