美联储有望重启宽松周期。8月22日鲍威尔在全球央行年会上讲话有所转鸽：认为当前的形势意味着，就业面临的 下行风险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要调整政策立场。明确放弃2020年灵活平均通胀目标框架，强 调"有意让通胀温和超调的思路已不适用"。鲍威尔态度转鸽后为美联储9月降息扫平道路，海外通胀上升路径更顺 畅。美国纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，如果中性利率是1%或略低，现在就处在限制区域。特朗普威胁罢免美联储 理事库克，库克起诉反对；美联储发声称罢免理事需"正当理由"，将遵法院判决。美国参议院银行委员会下周将 针对总统特朗普的美联储（临时）理事提名人Miran举行听证会。美国财长贝森特表示，"肯定"会在秋季知道特朗 普选择的美联储主席，负责房利美和房地美交易事宜的银行将于9-10月左右选定。欧洲央行7月会议纪要显示，官 员认为通胀风险"总体平衡"。欧元区8月CPI年率初值录得2.1%，略高于上月的2%，符合市场预期，支持欧洲央行 继续按兵不动。欧洲主要经济体的长期国债收益率正加速攀升，英国、德国和法国30年期国债收益率均创下自金 融危机以来甚至本世纪以来的新高，投资者对不断扩大的财政赤字和政策不确定性反应强烈 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-03 市场分析 2025-09-02，工业硅期货价格偏强运行，主力合约2511开于8480元/吨，最后收于8470元/吨，较前一日结算变化（95） 元/吨，变化（1.13）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓281480手，2025-09-02仓单总数为50029手，较前一日变化-371 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9000-9200（50）元/吨；421#硅在9300-9500 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8400-8600（50）元/吨，99硅价格在8400-8600（50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、 天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价报价小幅上调，97硅价格也小幅上涨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-10900（-50）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅企业成本压力增加，消费 终端旺季补库一般，预计整体消费持稳。 策略 现货价格小幅波动，短期供需边际好转，但产能过剩及库存压力大，供应端仍有增加预期，工业硅盘面受整体商 品情绪震荡运行。 多晶硅现货报价继续上调，关注价格向下游传导情况 工业硅： 风险 多晶硅： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Maersk has lowered its freight rate to $1700/FEU, and the freight rates of other shipping companies are also following suit. The overall freight rate center in September has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the cargo collection pressure is relatively high. [1][4] - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation as the freight rate center continues to decline. With the release of HPL's two additional vessels in October, it is expected to put pressure on the spot price in October. [4] - The December contract still follows the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons. However, the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. If ships from the US line are diverted to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices. [5] - The main contract of container shipping index futures is oscillating weakly, and it is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different freight rate quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's 37 - week price for Shanghai - Rotterdam is $1175/1970, and the 38 - week price is $1025/1710. [1] - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 2, local time, the Israeli military stated that it would intensify its military operations in the Gaza Strip. [2] - **Blank Sailings and Additional Vessels**: MSC has announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week, with a total of about 59,000 TEU of capacity affected. HPL has announced two additional vessels in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU. [3] 2. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The delivery and settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. In normal years, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rate center has dropped, and short - allocation is relatively safe. [4] - **December Contract**: In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays and shipping companies' preparations for long - term contract negotiations, the freight rate is usually higher. However, the risk is the bottom of the current freight rate decline. [5] 3. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 2, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts vary. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1550.10, and the EC2510 contract closed at 1340.70. [6] - **Spot Prices**: On August 29, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1481.00/TEU, and on September 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1773.60 points. [6] 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU. [7] 5. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract is oscillating weakly. [7] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the October contract when the price is high. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, and suggests paying attention to the situation of Shenghong's PX plant [4]. Core Viewpoints - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue has stalled or regressed, causing oil prices to decline slightly in fluctuations. The crude oil market remains in a multi - short stalemate. Naphtha has shown strength recently due to supply disruptions and expected demand recovery. The profitability of downstream olefins is guaranteed at the bottom as the peak season approaches [1]. - In the PX market, the PXN was 252 dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0.13 dollars/ton). After the restart of Idemitsu's and Fuhai Chuang's plants, the PX operating rate at home and abroad is expected to rise. Although the PX fundamentals have weakened and the floating price of near - month PX has softened, the low inventory provides support to PXN [1]. - For PTA, the spot basis of the main contract was - 49 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton), the spot processing fee was 171 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the futures market was 348 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton). Due to the less - than - expected maintenance of Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton PTA plant, the de - stocking amplitude of the PTA balance sheet in September will narrow. The demand recovery is limited, and the polyester operating rate may not increase as expected [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.3% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3%). There are signs of demand recovery, but the order connection this week is insufficient. The weaving and texturing loads have declined. The polyester operating rate is expected to remain stable and continue to rise in the short term [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit was 91 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 19 yuan/ton). The operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber has increased, the downstream situation has improved, and inventory is being depleted. However, there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment due to falling raw material prices [2]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 377 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14 yuan/ton). The fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. The industry plans to maintain a 20% production cut in September, and the increase in the operating rate is expected to be limited. The inventory pressure has decreased, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of TA's main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PTA's East China spot basis; and the basis of 1.56D * 38mm semi - bright natural white staple fiber [9][10][12]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes the toluene spread between the US and Asia, the spread between South Korea's FOB toluene and Japan's CFR naphtha, and PTA export profit [26][28]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - It displays the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, the total PTA warehouse receipts plus forecasts, PTA warehouse inventory, PX warehouse inventory, and PF warehouse inventory [37][40][41]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - It presents the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, the inventory days of filament DTY, FDY, and POY factories, the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the profits of filament FDY and POY [49][51][60]. 7. PF Detailed Data - It includes the operating rate of polyester staple fiber, the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, the operating rate of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the spread between raw and recycled 1.4D polyester staple fibers, the operating rates of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, the production profit of pure polyester yarn, the processing fee of polyester - cotton yarn, and the available inventory days of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn factories [71][80][84]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report shows the polyester bottle chip load, the inventory days of bottle chip factories, the spot and export processing fees of bottle chips, the export profit of bottle chips, the spread between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and the monthly spreads of bottle chips [90][92][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - After a continuous weak market, the fundamentals of LPG have shown some marginal improvement recently. With the main contract switching to 2510, the pressure of warrant cancellation has eased, and the support for the futures market has strengthened. The increase in the overseas swap price has boosted the arrival price, which is positive for the domestic market. However, the impact of the rising import cost on downstream chemical demand needs attention. The spot prices in Shandong, North China, Northwest China, and the Yangtze River region have increased slightly, while the rest of the regions have remained stable. Overall, the sentiment in the PG futures market has recovered, but the fundamental pattern has not reversed, and the upward space and driving force are still limited [1]. - The strategy for a single - sided position is to be oscillatingly strong. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on the PG main contract at low prices, but the expected space is limited. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On September 2, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4530 - 4610; Northeast market, 3880 - 4210; North China market, 4000 - 4650; East China market, 4450 - 4550; Yangtze River region market, 4760 - 4950; Northwest market, 4550 - 4600; South China market, 4558 - 4630 [1]. - In the first half of October 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 590 dollars/ton and 566 dollars/ton respectively, both up 8 dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4617 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton, and butane was 4430 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 583 dollars/ton and 559 dollars/ton respectively, both up 8 dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4563 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton, and butane was 4375 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Single - sided: Oscillatingly strong. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the PG main contract at low prices, but the expected space is limited. Inter - period: None. Cross - variety: None. Spot - futures: None. Options: None [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The sales pressure in the soybean spot market is gradually increasing, with some traders' price - holding mentality weakening, and soybean quotes in Northeast China moderately decreasing. The market conditions in other main producing areas remain stable overall, and attention should be paid to the impact of new soybean production, quality, and terminal procurement dynamics on prices. For peanuts, the inventory in the circulation link is continuously low, some traders are replenishing at low prices, and the market is concerned about the stocking demand during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day and the new peanut listing progress [2][3] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures - The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +5.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.13% [1] Spot - The basis of edible soybean spot is A11 + 250, a change of - 5 from the previous day, with a change rate of 32.14%. The soybean market prices in Northeast China are stable with a slight decline, and the prices of low - protein sources are under pressure from state - reserve auctions. Some areas are expected to have new grain on the market around September 20 [1] Specific Quotes - In Heilongjiang Harbin, the loading price of standard - grade No. 1 medium - sized tower grain with 39% protein is 2.11 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Heilongjiang Shuangyashan Baoqing, it is 2.10 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; in Heilongjiang Jiamusi Fujin, it is 2.07 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin; in Heilongjiang Qiqihar Nehe, the loading price of standard - grade No. 1 medium - sized tower grain with 41% protein is 2.22 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; in Heilongjiang Heihe Nenjiang, it is 2.19 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Heilongjiang Suihua Hailun, it is 2.20 yuan/jin, unchanged [1] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures - The closing price of the peanuts 2510 contract yesterday was 7790.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.51% [3] Spot - The average spot price of peanuts is 8440.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.12%. The spot basis is PK10 + 310.00, a change of +40.00 from the previous day, with a change rate of +14.81%. The average price of common peanuts in the national peanut market is 4.23 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. The prices of new - season Baisha common peanuts in Henan are around 4.4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the prices for 8 - sieve peanuts are 4.9 - 5 yuan/jin. The prices of old peanuts in the Northeast are stable with a slight decline, and the sales are slow. The delivery of peanut fruits in some producing areas is basically finished, the current operating rate of oil mills is low, and the demand for pressing is small [3] Oil Mill Quotes - A Shandong oil mill's contract price for common peanuts is 8350 yuan/ton, and the procurement contract price for oil - used peanuts is 7700 - 7800 yuan/ton. A Henan oil mill's procurement contract price for oil - used peanuts is about 7300 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, the market has a weak supply - demand situation, with long - term supply pressure and low - level downstream demand. Attention should be paid to macro and cost - end impacts, and there is still room for profit compression in the chlor - alkali industry [3]. - For caustic soda, the spot price is stable with a slight increase. Although there are short - term transportation restrictions, the overall order situation in Shandong is acceptable. The cost support remains, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4888 yuan/ton (- 6), the East China basis is - 218 yuan/ton (+ 6), and the South China basis is - 118 yuan/ton (+ 16) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4770 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 630 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 64 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 399 yuan/ton (- 176), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 628 yuan/ton (- 36), and the PVC export profit is 18.0 dollars/ton (+ 1.2) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC factory inventory is 31.2 tons (+ 0.6), the PVC social inventory is 52.2 tons (+ 1.4), the PVC calcium carbide method operation rate is 75.24% (- 0.83%), the PVC ethylene method operation rate is 68.66% (- 3.78%), and the PVC operation rate is 73.33% (- 1.69%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (- 2.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2665 yuan/ton (- 70), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 54 yuan/ton (+ 70) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 784.5 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 652.53 yuan/ton (+ 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (- 10.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.95 tons (- 1.69), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (- 0.22), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.40% (- 0.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.58% (- 0.20%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 64.73% (+ 0.87%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 86.02% (- 0.20%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC futures price stops falling and rebounds. Attention should be paid to the impacts from the macro and cost ends. The supply side has increased maintenance, and the operation rate has decreased month - on - month. However, many maintenance enterprises will resume this week, and the output may increase slightly. In the long - term, the supply - side pressure is still large. The downstream demand remains at a low level, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. The export signing and delivery volume have decreased month - on - month. Affected by India's PVC import policy, the export is expected to be strong before September and weaken in the fourth quarter. The PVC social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high. The 09 contract has a large warehouse receipt pressure. The chlor - alkali profit still has room for compression, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase. In September 2025, the delivered price of liquid caustic soda orders of alumina enterprises in Guangxi has increased by 100 yuan/ton compared with last month. The chlor - alkali enterprises have increased maintenance, and the operation rate has decreased but is still at a high level in the same period. Affected by transportation restrictions during the parade, orders from other provinces in Shandong have stopped, and the in - province delivery volume may increase. The receiving price of the main downstream alumina factories in Shandong is mainly stable. Non - aluminum downstream has a fear of high - priced goods. As the peak season is approaching, the overall order backlog in Shandong is acceptable, but the external - province delivery has been suspended in the short - term due to transportation. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi. The electricity price in Shandong has increased slightly in September, the price of liquid chlorine is weak, and the cost support remains. The chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level in the same period [4]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Pay attention to macro sentiment. With weak supply - demand, be cautious about shorting at high levels [5]. - Inter - delivery: Reverse arbitrage for V01 - 05 at high levels [5]. - Inter - commodity: None [5]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish [5]. - Inter - delivery: Positive arbitrage for SH10 - 01 at low levels [5]. - Inter - commodity: None [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels - Options: On hold 2) Core View of the Report - Gold prices have hit a new all-time high, with the main logic based on easing expectations and the risk premium due to threats to the Fed's independence. It is expected that the gold price will continue to be in a volatile and upward - biased pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 785 yuan/gram and 835 yuan/gram [8]. - In the current macro - environment, the silver price can benefit from both its financial attributes similar to gold and its industrial attributes in the interest - rate cut cycle, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. However, the silver price is also expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9700 yuan/kg and 10200 yuan/kg [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Tariffs: US President Trump will appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case, claiming that the US was in an economic emergency when the tariffs were introduced [1]. - US economic data: The US ISM manufacturing index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, lower than the market expectation of 49, and remained below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range [1]. - Eurozone inflation: The Eurozone CPI in August rose 2.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI fell slightly to 2.3%. An ECB hawkish official said the ECB should pause rate cuts due to upward inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - Shanghai Gold: On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai gold主力 contract opened at 799.54 yuan/gram and closed at 804.32 yuan/gram, up 0.47% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 804.42 yuan/gram and closed at 813.00 yuan/gram, up 1.08% from the afternoon close [2]. - Shanghai Silver: On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai silver主力 contract opened at 9775.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9824.00 yuan/kg, up 0.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 547,942 lots, and the open interest was 282,718 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9766 yuan/kg and closed at 9836 yuan/kg, up 0.12% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 2, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.261%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.62%, down 0.22 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - Gold: On the Au2508 contract, the number of long and short positions did not change compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 319,990 lots, down 35.47% from the previous trading day [4]. - Silver: On the Ag2508 contract, the number of long positions increased by 2, and the number of short positions decreased by 2. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 968,060 lots, down 36.18% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - Gold ETF holdings increased by 12.88 tons to 990.56 tons compared to the previous trading day. Silver ETF holdings increased by 56.48 tons to 15,366.48 tons compared to the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - Spot - futures spread: On September 2, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 20.32 yuan/gram, and for silver was - 1028.51 yuan/kg. - Gold - silver ratio: The ratio of the prices of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.87, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold - silver ratio was 85.48, up 0.65% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 2, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 51,864 kg, down 19.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 444,734 kg, down 31.93% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,490 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7].

农产品日报 | 2025-09-03 需求略有回暖，猪价震荡调整 生猪观点 据农业农村部监测，9月2日"农产品批发价格200指数"为117.41，比昨天上升0.21个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为118.13，比昨天上升0.25个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.80元/公斤，比昨天下降1.0%；牛肉65.19 元/公斤，比昨天上升1.1%；羊肉60.81元/公斤，比昨天上升1.2%；鸡蛋7.59元/公斤，比昨天下降2.1%；白条鸡17.44 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%。 市场分析 综合来看，虽然本周生猪出栏预计会有所缩量，由于短期的供应节奏调整，可能导致现货价格和近期合约价格会 趋于坚挺。但整体供过于求格局并未改变，对26年的生猪合约影响较小，利于套期保值需求逢高参与。当前的缩 量情况环比六七月底均有所增加，未来需持续关注。 策略 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约13595元/吨，较前交易日变动-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.22%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.02元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.15元/公斤，现货基差 LH11+425，较前交易日变动-120； ...

油脂日报 | 2025-09-03 供需结构稳定，油脂价格震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9422.00元/吨，环比变化+38元，幅度+0.40%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8356.00 元/吨，环比变化+8.00元，幅度+0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9766.00元/吨，环比变化-35.00元，幅度-0.36%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9380.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.75%，现货基差P01+-42.00，环比变化 +32.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8480.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y01+124.00， 环比变化+2.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9900.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%，现货基差OI01+134.00， 环比变化+35.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：棕榈油周度成交环比上涨，但24度及以下棕榈油消费需求有限，上周国内棕榈油库存小幅攀 升，再度回升至近期高位附近。监测数据显示，截止到2025年第35周末，国内棕榈油库存总量为55.8万吨，较上周 的52.0万 ...