黑色建材日报 | 2025-10-21 市场成交偏弱，钢价震荡下行 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾不减，玻碱弱势下行 市场分析 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱产线检修和库存变化、玻璃产线点火及产区供给扰动等。 双硅：企业维持亏损，供给压制价格 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡偏弱，日内成交活跃。现货方面，下游采购情绪谨慎，市场成交重心下移。 供需与逻辑：玻璃供给维持低位回升趋势，中游贸易库存高企且投机需求同步走弱，去库压力加大。伴随消费旺 季即将结束，且个别产线仍存复产预期，预计玻璃需求或将进一步走弱，持续关注玻璃产线变动情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡运行，成交活跃。现货方面，市场成交整体一般，下游采购情绪谨慎，低价刚 需成交为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾依旧不减，供应处于高位且仍存在增长预期。需求端保持韧性，去库压力贯穿全年， 持续关注纯碱供应变化及下游需求情况。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 硅锰方面，昨日锰硅期货主力合约震荡上涨，现货方面，硅锰市场表现尚可，周初市场观望情绪浓，6517北方市 场价格5630-5680元/吨，南方市场价格5650-5700元/吨。 逻 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3] - With increasing production schedules and slower - than - expected demand recovery, stainless steel prices are forecasted to stay in a weak oscillation, but recent policy guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the results of China - US trade talks need to be observed [5] Market Analysis of Nickel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 120,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 68,844 (- 7,491) lots, and the open interest was 58,658 (- 1,803) lots [1] Influence of Macro Data - China's macro data for the first three quarters showed that the GDP in Q3 was 3.545 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% (previous value: 5.2%), and other data indicated a situation of "strong supply and weak demand", causing Shanghai nickel prices to oscillate weakly [1] Nickel Ore Situation - The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. The Eramen mine in the Philippines launched a new tender. In the Philippines, the shipping volume from the Surigao mining area decreased, while northern mines started to load and ship. Downstream iron plants, with reduced profits, were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel ore market remained abundant. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium was + 26, with a premium range of + 25 - 27. Due to the approaching rainy season, Indonesian factories had low enthusiasm for raw material procurement despite production pressure [1] Spot Market - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,868 (- 174) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,476 (- 54) tons [2] Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [3] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,595 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,780 (+ 7,866) lots, and the open interest was 198,194 (- 4,171) lots [3] Influence of Macro Data - The real estate investment growth rate widened by 1 percentage point to - 13.9%, and the overall industry was still at the bottom - building stage. The recovery of stainless steel demand remained a long - term task [3] Spot Market - The market trading continued the light situation of the previous week, and prices remained basically stable. Under the pressure of sales, there were occasional lower quotes. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 390 - 690 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 938.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Neutral - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [5]

甲醇日报 | 2025-10-21 周初内地价格继续回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润605元/吨（-43）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2010元/吨（-43），内蒙北线基差344元/吨（-37），内蒙南线2050元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2295元/吨（-23），鲁 南基差229元/吨（-17）；河南2160元/吨（-5），河南基差94元/吨（+1）；河北2210元/吨（+0），河北基差204元/吨（+6）。 隆众内地工厂库存359900吨（+20500），西北工厂库存223000吨（+19000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单228910吨 （+113670），西北工厂待发订单136730吨（+73530）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2275元/吨（+3），太仓基差9元/吨（+9），CFR中国261美元/吨（-3），华东进口价差-10元/吨（+1）， 常州甲醇2355元/吨；广东甲醇2255元/吨（+0），广东基差-11元/吨（+6）。隆众港口总库存1491360吨（-51870）， 江苏港口库存773000吨（-20000），浙江港口库存2 ...

LPG市场反弹后阻力仍存，外盘价格再度下跌。现货方面，昨日国内主流价格下调，下游逢低采购，观望情绪较 强，交投氛围清淡。供应方面，海外供应相对充裕，且存在进一步增长可能；国内商品供应小幅波动，整体维持 充裕。需求方面，近期气温持续下降，燃烧端逢低采购。深加工需求变动幅度有限，PDH开工率维持72%左右。在 10月CP价格下调、进口成本回落后，化工利润有望边际改善，尤其是LPG对石脑油比价优势将刺激裂解装置的部 分原料切换，或为市场提供一定下方支撑。 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 液化石油气日报 | 2025-10-21 市场缺乏利好，供过于求格局延续 市场分析 1、\t10月20日地区价格：山东市场，4050-4090；东北市场，3910-4210；华北市场，4050-4450；华东市场，4155-4260； 沿江市场，4470-4730；西北市场，4100-4200；华南市场，4390-4498。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年11月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷529美元/吨， ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-10-21 国内大规模降温，需求改善乏力 市场分析 1、10月20日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3141元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨4元/吨，涨幅 0.01%；持仓167705手，环比上涨14182手，成交160007手，环比下降3854手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—4086元/吨；山东，3300—3670元/吨；华南，3350—3550元/吨； 华东，3450—3550元/吨。 昨日华北、山东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格继续下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格相对稳定。原油以及沥青期货维持 弱势运行，利空沥青现货市场情绪。就沥青自身基本面而言，供需两弱格局延续，油价大跌后炼厂利润相对可观， 供应端弹性或更大。需求方面，北方地区受冷空气影响，气温明显下降，沥青刚性需求整体表现疲软，市场利好 驱动不足，短期建议观望为主。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Core Viewpoints - For the soybean meal market, the current supply is sufficient, with low - level oscillations. The high export volume from Brazil has put pressure on CBOT soybean prices and increased domestic supply, and the supply is expected to remain loose. Future market focus lies on policy changes and the import situation of new - season US soybeans [1][3] - In the corn market, the new - season corn in domestic northeast and north China regions is being concentratedly supplied. The supply exceeds demand, and the new - grain price is low. Attention should be paid to national policies [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2895 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (+0.94%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2350 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (+1.91%) [1] - Spot: The spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2560 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1] - Overseas Information: As of October 17, Brazilian farmers have planted 23.27% of the expected soybean area for 2025, compared with 9.33% in the same period last year. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated at 18 million hectares, an 8.4% increase from the previous year, and the production is expected to be 51.1 million tons, a 6% increase from 2023/24 [2] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2138 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.99%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2380 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.25%) [4] - Spot: The spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Overseas Information: As of October 13, French farmers had harvested 56% of this year's grain corn crop, up from 37% a week ago, and the excellent - good rate was 60%, down from 62% a week ago [4] Market Analysis Soybean Meal - Although the US Department of Agriculture has not released the latest data, Brazil's good export situation has put pressure on CBOT soybean prices. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the supply is expected to remain loose. Future focus is on policy changes and the import of new - season US soybeans [3] Corn - In the domestic market, the new - season corn in the northeast and north China regions is being concentratedly supplied. The supply exceeds demand, and the new - grain price is low. Attention should be paid to national policies [6] Strategy - The strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7]

特朗普拒绝对乌克兰提供战斧导弹 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌2美分，收于每桶57.52美元，跌幅为0.03%；12月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌28美分，收于每桶61.01美元，跌幅为0.46%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.16%，报438元/桶。 2、 欧洲理事会周一宣布，欧盟成员国能源部长当天通过了在2028年1月1日前逐步停止进口俄罗斯石油和天然气 的提案。欧盟能源部长在卢森堡举行的会议上批准了该计划，根据该计划，欧盟将从2026年1月起逐步停止根据新 合同进口俄罗斯天然气，现有短期合同自2026年6月起终止，长期合同则于2028年1月终止。欧盟希望通过逐步停 止进口俄罗斯油气，切断克里姆林宫为俄乌冲突提供资金的收入来源。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 上海国际能源交易中心公告，同意大连北方油品储运有限公司调增位于大连市保税区新港大连港新港沙坨子 的原油期货交割仓库启用库容的申请，启用库容由10万立方米增加至20万立方米；自公告之日起，大连北方油品 储运有限公司应按增加后的启用库容开展期货交割仓库各项业务，严格执行有关规定，加强管理，确保交割仓库 业务正 ...

策略 尿素日报 | 2025-10-21 尿素9月出口137万吨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-20，尿素主力收盘1600元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1550 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1550元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-50 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-50元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：-40元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润20元/吨（-10），出口利润983元 /吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-20，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-20，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 尿素现货低价成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，再次小幅下调报价。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行 中，复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 氧化铝难见好转，铝出口依旧偏乐观 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20930元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价20810元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-110元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20820元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-100元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-10-20日沪铝主力合约开于20935元/吨，收于20910元/吨，较上一交易日变化-80元/吨，最 高价达20970元/吨，最低价达到20890元/吨。全天交易日成交107222手，全天交易日持仓231673手。 库存方面，截止2025-10-20，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.2吨，仓单库存69947 吨，较上一交易日变化-723吨，LME铝库存487125吨，较上一交易日变化-4100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-10-20SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2875元/吨，山东价格录得2835元/吨，河南价格录得 2895元 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 现货方面：2025-10-20，LME铅现货升水为-41.85美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16925 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/ 吨至17025元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化50元/吨至17050元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-20，沪铅主力合约开于17075元/吨，收于17060元/吨，较前一交易日变化-15元/吨，全天交易日 成交27656手，较前一交易日变化-11986手，全天交易日持仓38195手，手较前一交易日变化-2023手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17155元/吨，最低点达到17055元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于17130元/吨，收于 ...