Workflow
Hua Tai Qi Huo
icon
Search documents
新能源及有色金属日报:现货成交清淡,碳酸锂盘面高位震荡-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:20
Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is good, with consumption support and continuous inventory reduction, but the market may fall if consumption weakens and mines resume production [4] - The lithium business of some companies has shown different trends. For example, the third - quarter performance of Yahua Group has improved significantly, while Tianqi Lithium has achieved a turnaround in net profit despite a decline in revenue [2][3] Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 was 82,240 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 82,900 yuan/ton, a 0.80% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 659,421 lots, and the position was 506,882 lots, up from 488,803 lots the previous day. The basis was - 2,390 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warrants was 2,7525 lots, a change of 190 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 77,500 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 76,400 - 77,500 yuan/ton, both up 650 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 955 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of spodumene and salt lake ends both above 60%. The total output of lithium carbonate in October is expected to continue to rise and may break the historical record [1] - The demand side is strong. The new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger fields, and the energy storage market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand, continuously driving the demand for lithium - battery materials [1] Company Performance - Yahua Group's Q3 2025 revenue was 2.624 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.97%; net profit was 198 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 278.06%. The revenue in the first three quarters was 6.047 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.07%; net profit was 334 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 116.02%. The company's lithium business performance improved in Q3, and it has sufficient orders in Q4 [2] - Tianqi Lithium's Q3 2025 revenue was 2.565 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 29.66%; net profit was 95.4855 million yuan, turning a profit year - on - year. The revenue in the first three quarters was 7.397 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 26.50%; net profit was 180 million yuan, turning a profit year - on - year [3] Strategy - Short - term range operation. Observe the inflection points of inventory and consumption, and sell hedging at high prices when appropriate [4] - There is no strategy for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]
石油沥青日报:基本面维持疲软,市场驱动有限-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of asphalt remain weak and market drivers are limited. Crude oil price rebound is blocked, leading to an adjustment in the asphalt market and increasing the cautious sentiment in the spot market. The abundant supply of local refineries in Shandong continues to pressure the asphalt spot prices in Shandong and surrounding areas. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation state, waiting for important macro - events [1] Market Analysis - On October 29, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3,274 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 196,026 lots, a decrease of 1,242 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 173,766 lots, an increase of 7,144 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,406 - 4,750 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,200 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China: 3,360 - 3,580 yuan/ton; East China: 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot prices in North China and Shandong decreased, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [1] Figures - Figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest) are presented, with the unit of yuan/ton [3][10][5][7] - Figures related to asphalt futures (index closing price, main contract closing price, near - month contract closing price, near - month spread, unilateral trading volume and open interest, main contract trading volume and open interest) are presented, with the unit of yuan/ton or lots [3][23][20][24] - Figures related to asphalt production (domestic weekly production, independent refinery production, production in Shandong, East China, South China, North China) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][32][30][38] - Figures related to asphalt consumption (road consumption, waterproof consumption, coking consumption, ship - fuel consumption) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][39][40] - Figures related to asphalt inventory (refinery inventory and social inventory according to Longzhong) are presented, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][41]
尿素日报:厂内库存去库,现货情绪降温-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot trading weakened after the previous week's simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, awaiting a driving force. Some regions are in the process of autumn fertilization for agriculture, and the production of autumn fertilizers for compound fertilizers is coming to an end. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased as some previously shut - down devices have resumed production. Currently, the compound fertilizers for winter wheat are mainly for inventory clearance, and the sales sentiment has improved with the clearing weather. The operation of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased this week. Inner Mongolia still has the highest inventory in the country. In November, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast will gradually start production. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast and the national off - season storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are still export windows. Urea exports reached 1.37 million tons in September, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. There are both container loading and departure at ports, and the inventory is being depleted. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was $402/ton on the west coast and $395/ton on the east coast. The current urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent urea export dynamics [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][8][13][16] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [24][25][28][30] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures involve urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [32][34][38][40][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Relevant figures are compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [49][50][51] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume [54][56][59]
油脂日报:印尼B50生柴计划存变数,油脂价格震荡走弱-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is uncertain, causing the prices of edible oils to fluctuate and weaken [1] - The prices of the three major edible oils fluctuated and declined yesterday. The MPOA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month. The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan due to opposition from the mining association suppressed palm oil prices [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,842.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 116 yuan or - 1.29% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,132.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 50.00 yuan or - 0.61%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,525.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 205.00 yuan or - 2.11% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,690.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 170.00 yuan or - 1.92%, with a spot basis of P01 + - 152.00, a change of - 54.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,280.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 80.00 yuan/ton or - 0.96%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 148.00, a change of - 30.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 170.00 yuan or - 1.69%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 375.00, a change of + 35.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information Argentina's Soybean Sales - As of the week ending October 22, Argentine farmers sold 1.115 million tons of 2024/25 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 22.3379 million tons. Local oil mills purchased 665,700 tons, and the export industry purchased 449,300 tons. They also sold 38,100 tons of 2025/26 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 214,500 tons. Local oil mills purchased 34,500 tons, and the export industry purchased 3,600 tons. The total soybean sales for the week were 1.1927 million tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 63.1325 million tons. As of October 22, the cumulative export sales registration of 2024/25 - season soybeans was 4.818 million tons, and that of 2025/26 - season soybeans was 0 tons [2] China's Soybean Purchase from the US - On October 29, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said that China made its first purchase of soybeans from the US this harvest season, after zero imports from the US in September. The spokesman referred specific questions to the relevant Chinese authorities [2] International Commodity Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was $516/ton, up $7/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was $527/ton, up $7/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was $1,163/ton, up $7/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was $1,159/ton, up $9/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was $1,140/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was $1,120/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was $489/ton, up $3/ton; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (December shipment) was $480/ton, up $5/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was $489/ton, up $1/ton. The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (December shipment) was 240 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import soybean premium for the US West Coast (December shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (December shipment) was 240 cents/bushel, down 6 cents/bushel [2]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:苯乙烯港口库存压力持续-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, port inventory has slightly declined, but low downstream开工 rates of styrene, CPL, and adipic acid have dragged down demand, leading to a continuously weak port basis. Domestic pure benzene开工 has also decreased, and the impact of previous sanctions on some refinery loads can be resolved by switching crude oil resources [3] - For styrene, despite short - term maintenance, port inventory has not been reduced, and there is still pressure. New device startups such as Jihua and Guangxi Petrochemical have had an impact. Downstream开工 has changed little, but提货 is average, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three major hard rubbers is still high, so the port inventory pressure of EB persists [3] Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The report mentions figures related to the basis of pure benzene and EB, including the basis of pure benzene futures contracts, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, and the spread between consecutive contracts of pure benzene and EB [8][11][16] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Information on production profits and internal - external spreads of pure benzene and styrene is provided, such as styrene non - integrated device production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, and import profits of pure benzene and styrene [19][22][30] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory,开工 Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 8.50 million tons (- 1.40 million tons), and its开工 rate has declined. Styrene port inventory is still under pressure, with East China port inventory at 193,000 tons (- 9,500 tons), and its开工 rate is 69.3% (- 2.6%) [1][3][34] IV. Styrene Downstream开工 and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 255 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), with an开工 rate of 61.98% (- 0.54%); PS production profit is - 45 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), with an开工 rate of 53.80% (+ 0.00%); ABS production profit is - 192 yuan/ton (+ 48 yuan/ton), with an开工 rate of 72.80% (- 0.30%) [2] V. Pure Benzene Downstream开工 and Production Profits - For pure benzene downstream products, caprolactam production profit is - 1850 yuan/ton (+ 35), with an开工 rate of 88.89% (- 3.52%); phenol - acetone production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (+ 0), with an开工 rate of 78.00% (+ 0.00%); aniline production profit is 1050 yuan/ton (+ 224), with an开工 rate of 76.48% (+ 0.75%); adipic acid production profit is - 1165 yuan/ton (- 23), with an开工 rate of 55.80% (- 3.30%) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Short - term, go long on the spread of pure benzene processing fees (pure benzene - naphtha) [4]
农产品日报:需求渐有起色,猪价震荡运行-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig industry: Cautiously bearish [3] - Investment rating for the egg industry: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the pig industry, the current secondary fattening sentiment is still strong, but it doesn't change the total market supply and will increase future supply. The short - term pig price is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged with large future出栏 pressure [2] - For the egg industry, the overall demand is weak. Although egg sales have accelerated this week, it's short - lived. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is hard to change in the short term [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract was 12,185 yuan/ton yesterday, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.63 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.76 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.33 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On October 29, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 124.30, up 0.48 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 126.16, up 0.57 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 18.03 yuan/kg (unchanged), beef was 66.29 yuan/kg (down 0.5%), mutton was 62.35 yuan/kg (down 0.2%), eggs were 7.37 yuan/kg (down 0.3%), and white - striped chickens were 17.41 yuan/kg (down 1.6%) [1] Market Analysis - Secondary fattening is mainly undertaken by retail investors who prefer large fat pigs, leading to a prominent problem of postponed pig supply. The short - term price is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract was 3,165 yuan/500 kilograms yesterday, up 66 yuan (+2.13%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.89 yuan/jin (unchanged); in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.67 yuan/jin (unchanged) [3] - Inventory: On October 29, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.11 days (unchanged), and the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days (unchanged) [4] Market Analysis - The overall demand is weak. Egg sales have accelerated briefly, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the market is mainly focused on digesting previous inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish, as the number of laying hens in production remains high and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is hard to change in the short term [6]
宏观日报:关注新兴制造业投资增长-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:15
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The central enterprise strategic emerging industry development special fund, initiated by the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council and managed by China National New, was launched in Beijing on the 29th. With an initial scale of 51 billion yuan, it will support strategic emerging industries and future industries [1]. - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30th, and will end the reduction of the overall securities holding scale on December 1st [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Industry Events - **Production Industry**: The central enterprise strategic emerging industry development special fund will focus on areas like artificial intelligence, aerospace, and high - end equipment [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates and will end the "balance - sheet reduction" [1]. B. Industry Data - **Upstream**: Glass prices continued to decline; palm oil prices dropped; liquefied natural gas prices rose [2]. - **Mid - stream**: PX operating rates remained stable at a high level; power plant coal consumption remained stable at a three - year high [2]. - **Downstream**: Second - and third - tier city commercial housing sales declined; domestic flight frequencies recovered [2]. C. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: Corn prices decreased by 1.05%; egg prices increased by 1.65%; palm oil prices decreased by 2.31%; cotton prices increased by 0.34%; pork prices increased by 2.33% [35]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper prices increased by 3.24%; zinc prices increased by 1.76%; aluminum prices increased by 1.11% and 0.40%; nickel prices decreased by 0.20% [35]. - **Ferrous Metals**: Iron ore prices increased by 1.94%; wire rod prices increased by 1.29%; glass prices decreased by 5.33% [35]. - **Non - metals**: Natural rubber prices increased by 1.82%; the China Plastic City price index increased by 0.04% [35]. - **Energy**: WTI crude oil prices increased by 5.08%; Brent crude oil prices increased by 5.02%; liquefied natural gas prices increased by 11.12%; coal prices increased by 1.13% [35]. - **Chemicals**: PTA prices increased by 3.15%; polyethylene prices increased by 0.82%; urea prices increased by 3.50%; soda ash prices increased by 0.53% [35]. - **Real Estate**: The national cement price index increased by 1.47%; the building materials composite index increased by 1.36%; the national concrete price index decreased by 0.19% [35].
新能源及有色金属日报:宏观利好金属板块,镍不锈钢小幅反弹-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - policy is favorable for the metal sector, leading to a slight rebound in nickel and stainless steel. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply pattern with high inventory, so the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The demand for stainless steel grows weakly and the cost support weakens, and its price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation trend [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,760 yuan/ton and closed at 121,540 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,262 (-47,034) lots, and the open interest was 109,686 (-5,360) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to the positive macro - policy expectations [2]. - In the nickel ore market, recent transactions have occurred. Indonesia's CIF tender for 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines was settled at 49.5 - 50.5, down 1 dollar month - on - month. The FOB tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from domestic northern mines is expected to be around 43. The shipping season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines is coming to an end, and northern mines are in the tender and shipping stage. The price of downstream nickel - iron is under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in November (Phase I) is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [2]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,100 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot transactions were mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot premiums of various brands increased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 31,433 (48) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,706 (270) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will remain in low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,750 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 93,841 (-3,249) lots, and the open interest was 98,223 (-4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, due to the signs of easing Sino - US friction and the upcoming release of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the main contract of stainless steel also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4]. - The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, but the transactions were still sluggish, and the actual transactions were mainly low - priced goods. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was from 215 to 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by -2.00 yuan/nickel point to 924.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Due to weak demand growth and weakening cost support, it is expected that the stainless steel price will remain in an interval oscillation trend. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].
农产品日报:洛川富士货价混乱,河北红枣特级微降-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 05:26
苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 农产品日报 | 2025-10-29 洛川富士货价混乱,河北红枣特级微降 期货方面,昨日收盘苹果2601合约9238元/吨,较前一日变动+302元/吨,幅度+3.38%。现货方面,山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.75元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP01-1738,较前一日变动-302;陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格4.15元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP01-938,较前一日变动-302。 近期市场资讯,晚富士产区西部入库行情稳定,地面交易随质量下滑成交价格略走低。山东交易上量,好货价格 维持稳硬,客商收购好货略有难度,小单车收购积极,栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤,栖霞80#一二级半主 流参考价3.0-3.5元/斤,统货价格2.0-3.0元/斤,以质论价。甘肃整体行情稳定,客商入库进入后期;陕西产区好货 订购进入中后期,一般货源价格混乱,入库工作陆续开展。目前交易价格来看,陕西洛川产区晚富士70#以上半商 品3.8-4.5元/斤附近,70#以上统货3.4-3.8元/斤,订园价格3.5-3.8元/斤主流。多以质论价。甘 ...
农产品日报:惜售情绪延续,生猪期价宽幅震荡-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 05:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg industry is also cautiously bearish [6] Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, the current second - fattening sentiment is still strong, which is a reproduction link that doesn't change the total supply but will increase future supply. The short - term price is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure remains large, and changes in second - fattening and production capacity need attention [2] - For the egg market, the overall demand is weak. Although egg sales have accelerated slightly this week, the improvement is short - lived. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is hard to change in the short term [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2601 contract yesterday was 12,160 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton (-1.38%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary pigs was 12.67 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.83 yuan/kg, up 0.19 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.23 yuan/kg, up 0.30 yuan/kg. The spot basis and its changes in different regions are also provided [1] - Agricultural product prices: On October 28, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" rose 0.50 points, and the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.58 points. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 18.03 yuan/kg, up 0.4% [1] Market Analysis - Second - fattening mainly by retail investors leads to a significant shift in pig supply. The short - term price is supported, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with large future slaughter pressure [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3099 yuan/500 kg, down 35 yuan (-1.12%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.89 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 2.95 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.67 yuan/jin, down 0.11 yuan. The spot basis and its changes in different regions are also given [3] - Inventory: On October 28, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.11 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, both unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The overall demand is weak. Egg sales have accelerated briefly, but the situation in sales areas is stable. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the market is in a state of digesting previous inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish, as the number of laying hens in production remains high and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change in the short term [6]