Group 1: Report Abstract - Guinea's political regime is stabilizing, and the probability of policy - related risk events is decreasing. The partial resumption of Axis Mine indicates that Guinea still aims at resource export. Without considering cost - related mine production cuts, Guinea's bauxite shipment volume could reach about 180 million tons in 2026. Assuming no domestic alumina production cuts, the consumption of imported ore in 2026 will be 215 million tons. With a slight increase in ore supply from other countries, the bauxite supply is expected to remain in surplus [2]. - When the bauxite price drops to $65 per ton, alumina enterprises won't cut production due to losses. Even if all loss - making mines in Guinea shut down, the bauxite inventory will still be at a safe level. When the price drops to $60 per ton, 67 million tons of loss - making capacity in Guinea will stop production, and the alumina supply will still be in surplus by 2 million tons throughout the year. If alumina production is cut to achieve supply - demand balance, the bauxite price in Guinea will drop to $55 per ton or lower, and the corresponding alumina futures price will be 2250 - 2300 yuan per ton [2][3]. Group 2: Guinea Event Review - Axis Mine Resumption as a Policy - Oriented Signal - In May 2025, Guinea revoked the mining licenses of many companies, and Axis Mine was forced to stop work. In July, the mining license was to be granted to Shunda Mining, but in August, the agreement was annulled. In August, a new mining company N.M.C was established to take over the mining rights of EGA - GAC. In September, the resumption expectation of Nimba Mining SA was strengthening, and it might resume mining in October. In September, a mining enterprise union in Guinea submitted a strike notice. In November, Nimba Mining started bauxite barge shipment. In December, GIC was allowed to resume operations, and Nimba Mining planned to resume mining and set an export target [8][9]. Group 3: Guinea Bauxite Shipment Volume Projection - In 2024, Guinea's total bauxite shipment volume was 145.86 million tons, and China imported 110.2 million tons from Guinea, accounting for 75%. In 2025, Guinea's shipment volume is expected to reach 160 million tons, with China's import accounting for 90%. In 2026, without considering cost - related production cuts, Guinea's shipment volume could reach about 180 million tons, with the supply increment mainly from Axis and the former GAC mines [10][11]. Group 4: China's Bauxite Consumption Analysis - From January to October 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 171 million tons, of which 127 million tons were from Guinea, accounting for 74.2%. The annual import volume is expected to be 200 million tons, with 145 million tons from Guinea and 55 million tons from other countries. In 2025, the consumption of imported bauxite in China is expected to be 180 million tons, with a supply surplus of 11.7%. In 2026, China's imports are expected to reach about 230 million tons. If domestic alumina production doesn't decline, the consumption of imported ore in 2026 will be 215 million tons, and the bauxite supply will still be in surplus [13][14]. - According to cost calculations, when the CIF price drops to $65 per ton, 30 million tons of capacity in Guinea will face losses; when it drops to $60 per ton, the loss - making capacity will expand to 67 million tons [14]. Group 5: Summary - Guinea's political regime is stabilizing, and the probability of policy - related risk events is decreasing. The partial resumption of Axis Mine indicates the country's focus on resource export. The reality and expectation of alumina supply surplus remain unchanged. When the bauxite supply is in surplus, the alumina price will fall, squeezing the smelter's profit and then pushing down the bauxite price until bauxite production is cut. After bauxite production cuts, the alumina price still needs to fall to squeeze the production space of alumina enterprises until alumina production is cut to reverse the surplus situation [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. The market is influenced by factors such as macro - policies, inflation, fiscal and financial conditions, and global trade uncertainties. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of 0.10% and a year - on - year change of - 2.20% [9]. - Social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%; M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, down 0.20% with a decline rate of 2.44%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, up 0.20% with a growth rate of 0.41% [10]. - The US dollar index is 98.40, up 0.19 with a growth rate of 0.19%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0390, up 0.001 with a growth rate of 0.02%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, unchanged with a decline rate of 0.07%; DR007 is 1.44, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.45%; R007 is 1.51, unchanged with a decline rate of 0.31%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.63, unchanged with a growth rate of 0.00%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, unchanged with a growth rate of 0.00% [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.43 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 112.14 yuan respectively. The price changes are 0.01%, 0.06%, 0.10%, and 0.63% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.084 yuan, - 0.076 yuan, - 0.053 yuan, and - 0.228 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year [2]. - In November, the overall financial data was weak. The credit was still supported by bills and short - term loans. The medium - and long - term financing needs of residents and enterprises continued to decline, and the loans increased significantly less year - on - year. The social financing growth rate remained at 8.5%, mainly hedged by corporate bonds and off - balance - sheet financing [2]. - On December 17, 2025, the central bank conducted a 46.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.275%, 1.428%, 1.471%, and 1.541% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific data summary provided in the text, only mentions various spread trend charts such as the inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [37][38][45]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [49][53]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][58]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [63][69]. Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase rate has declined, and the treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price is expected to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the EC2602 contract will follow the real - time quotes. The far - month contracts face the risk of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, which may lead to a downward revision of their valuations. The strategy for the 12 - month contract is to expect it to fluctuate, while the EC2602 contract is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is currently no arbitrage strategy [4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Prices - As of December 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 61,674.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 29,873.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1699.80, 1124.10, 1283.70, 1448.10, 1045.20, and 1632.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Prices - On December 12, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1538 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1780 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2652 US dollars/FEU. On December 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1510.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 924.36 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 3 - week monthly average weekly capacity was 326,000 TEU, and in January, it was 322,700 TEU, and in February, it was 276,700 TEU. There were 4 TBNs in January (all from the OA alliance) and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February (both blank sailings from the OA alliance). In 2025, 250 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched the Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is no specific time for the Gemini east - west route to resume sailing through the Red Sea. The Gaza cease - fire mediation plan is advancing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume operation in 2026, which may increase effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The feedback from various surveys shows that the cargo volume is gradually recovering. The 2026 Spring Festival is one month later than in 2025, and there is uncertainty about whether the time for shipping companies to sign contracts and maintain prices will also be postponed [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range-bound with a bullish bias - Inter-period: Wait-and-see - Inter-variety: None [3] 2. Report's Core View - India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tenders, with an intended purchase of 1.5 million tons. The urea spot price has loosened, and low-price trading has improved, leading to a stronger market trading atmosphere. The daily urea output has slightly decreased, and the current off-season storage procurement has slowed down. The industrial rigid demand has slightly declined, while the melamine plant has resumed production and the rigid demand procurement has increased. With market activities such as off-season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export procurement, the factory inventory has decreased, and the port inventory has increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the start-up rate of compound fertilizers in Northeast China, the raw material procurement rhythm, the national off-season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - Includes charts of Shandong and Henan urea small particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][14][16] 3.2 Urea Production - Includes charts of urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume [19] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start-up Rate - Includes charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal-based capacity utilization rate, and gas-based capacity utilization rate [24][25][27][29] 3.4 Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - Includes charts of urea small particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small particle FOB in China, urea large particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [31][38][40][45] 3.5 Urea Downstream Start-up and Orders - Includes charts of compound fertilizer start-up rate, melamine start-up rate, and pending order days [50][47] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes charts of upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume [51][53][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Capital inflows are emerging, and the market sentiment is stabilizing. The inflow of funds further validates the market participation logic and strengthens the expectation of a long - term and slow - rising bull market. The Shanghai Composite Index generally maintains a box - shock pattern [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Section Market Analysis - **Macro - economy**: In the first 11 months of this year, the national fiscal revenue was 20.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, the same as that in the first 10 months. National tax revenue was 1.648 trillion yuan, a 1.8% increase, and the securities trading stamp tax revenue was 185.5 billion yuan, a 70.7% increase. Overseas, Fed Governor Waller said there is a 50 - 100 basis - point rate - cut space, but no drastic action is needed based on the current economic outlook [1] - **Stock market**: A - share indexes rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.19% to 3870.28 points and the ChiNext Index rising 3.39%. Most sector indexes rose, with communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and basic chemicals leading the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, national defense and military industry, and coal sectors declined. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, Oracle's sharp decline dragged down AI stocks, and the three major US stock indexes closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 1.81% to 22693.32 points [1] - **Futures market**: In the futures market, the basis of the current - month stock index futures contracts will converge tomorrow. The trading volume of the four major stock index futures increased, and the position of IC increased [1] Strategy - Domestically, capital inflows are emerging, and the market is rising. The Shanghai Composite Index maintains a box - shock pattern. The capital inflow validates the market participation logic and strengthens the long - term and slow - rising bull market expectation [2] Macro - economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [1][9][11] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock index performance**: On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.40% to 13224.51 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.39% to 3175.91 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.83% to 4579.88 points, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.25% to 2991.68 points, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.95% to 7137.83 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.49% to 7288.74 points [13] - Other charts include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and trading volume**: The trading volume of IF was 189,590 (an increase of 39,510), the position was 289,623 (a decrease of 628); the trading volume of IH was 74,842 (an increase of 4,636), the position was 94,153 (a decrease of 1,896); the trading volume of IC was 184,831 (an increase of 21,520), the position was 271,976 (an increase of 2,748); the trading volume of IM was 290,120 (an increase of 35,895), the position was 392,878 (a decrease of 9,704) [15] - **Basis**: The basis data of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, including the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [41] - **Inter - period spread**: The inter - period spread data between different contracts (such as next - month minus current - month, next - season minus current - month, etc.) of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided [45][46][47]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - For the apple industry, the current入库量 and入库结构 expectations are reflected in the price. Low - priced citrus impacts apple sales. The market is in a off - season with stable prices, and attention should be paid to terminal consumption recovery,入库结构 differentiation, and pre - holiday trading atmosphere [4] - For the红枣 industry, the supply is abundant due to the superposition of old and new inventories. Although the traditional peak season arrives, downstream merchants purchase as needed, resulting in mediocre sales. High inventory and weak demand may continue to put pressure on prices, and the upward rebound space is limited even if consumption data improves [8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9122 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 7 yuan/ton (- 0.08%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 - 922 and AP05 - 722 changed + 7 from the previous day [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the red dates 2605 contract was 8915 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 50 yuan/ton (- 0.56%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 8.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 - 315 changed + 50 from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market News Apple - The inventory of late Fuji apples is generally stable but weak. The delivery progress in the producing areas is slow, and the enthusiasm of merchants to seek fruit from farmers is average. The terminal consumption is sluggish, and the double - holiday stocking has no obvious atmosphere. It is expected that today's transactions will remain dull and the mainstream prices will be stable [2] Red Dates - The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end, with little remaining supply. The prices in different regions vary according to quality. In the sales areas, the prices are stable, and downstream merchants purchase as needed [6] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price fluctuated narrowly yesterday. The overall transaction in the producing areas was light, and the double - holiday stocking was less than expected. Low - priced citrus squeezed the sales of medium - and low - grade apples. The入库 of new fruits was low, while farmers were eager to sell. The downstream market sales were slow, and the sentiment of some merchants changed from optimistic to cautiously optimistic or slightly pessimistic [3] Red Dates - The red dates futures price declined slightly yesterday. The market supply is abundant due to the superposition of new and old inventories, while the downstream consumption is weak. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and some sellers in the producing areas are reluctant to lower prices. In the sales areas, the prices are stable, and some holders sell at a discount to avoid storage costs. The inventory of 36 sample points is increasing, and the price is under pressure [7] Group 6: Strategy Apple - Maintain a neutral strategy. Focus on the terminal market consumption recovery,入库 structure differentiation, and pre - holiday trading atmosphere. It is expected that the double - holiday stocking may start slightly this week, and the market will remain in an off - season with stable prices [4] Red Dates - Adopt a neutral strategy. With sufficient supply and weak demand, the price may continue to be under pressure. Even if consumption improves, the upward rebound space is limited. Pay attention to the peak - season consumption performance [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautious and bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Short put [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the Fed's interest - rate meeting cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, and copper prices remained strong. The closing out of short hedging positions at the end of the year also pushed up copper prices. However, these factors will gradually fade, so the continuous sharp rise of copper prices may slow down. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the suggested range between 90,500 yuan/ton and 91,000 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 92,210 yuan/ton and closed at 92,820 yuan/ton, up 0.98% from the previous trading - day's closing. The night - session of the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 92,830 yuan/ton and closed at 92,860 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the afternoon closing [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 200 - 100 yuan/ton to the next - month 2601 contract, with an average discount of 150 yuan/ton, 25 yuan lower than the previous day. The spot price range was 92,000 - 92,290 yuan/ton. Sellers were active in shipping, but downstream procurement was weak, and spot premiums continued to decline. The end - of - year consumption is expected to remain weak, and spot premiums may continue to decline slightly [2] Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical - Fed Governor Waller said there is a 50 - 100 basis - point rate - cut space. Trump ordered a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers in and out of Venezuela and labeled the Venezuelan government a "foreign terrorist organization". US and Russian officials are expected to meet in Miami this weekend [3] Mining - On December 17, Fortescue Metals Group will acquire 64% of the outstanding common shares of Alta Copper for C$139 million (about $101 million), aiming for full control. Alta Copper's core asset is the Cañariaco copper project in Peru. The transaction is expected to complete in Q1 2026 [4] Smelting and Import - Qianbi Copper Smelting Co., Ltd. of China Non - Ferrous Metals Group exceeded the planned targets for main product output and total profit from January to November. As of November, copper product output reached 91.53% of the annual target [5] Consumption - In November 2025, China's copper industry prosperity index was 39.7, down 2.0 points from the previous month. The leading index was 73.4, down 2.1 points, and the coincident index was 74.3, down 3.6 points [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 725 tons to 166,925 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 907 tons to 44,877 tons. On December 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 164,500 tons, a change of 15,000 tons from the previous week [5] Copper Price and Basis Data | Category | Project | 2025 - 12 - 18 | 2025 - 12 - 17 | 2025 - 12 - 11 | 2025 - 11 - 18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount) | SMM: 1 Copper | - 150 | - 125 | 30 | 105 | | | Premium Copper | - 125 | - 80 | 80 | 165 | | | Flat - water Copper | - 180 | - 150 | - 10 | 65 | | | Wet - process Copper | - 220 | - 200 | - 50 | 5 | | | Yangshan Premium | 50 | 48 | 48 | 47 | | | LME (0 - 3) | - 10 | - 4 | 0 | 4 | | Inventory | LME | 166,925 | 166,600 | 164,975 | 136,050 | | | SHFE | 89,389 | | 88,905 | | | | COMEX | 412,441 | 410,789 | 401,925 | 345,906 | | Warehouse Receipts | SHFE Warehouse Receipts | 44,877 | 45,784 | 28,931 | 56,965 | | | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipt Ratio | 38.66% | 39.43% | 38.09% | 6.96% | | Arbitrage | CU2604 - CU2601 (Three - month - near - month) | 150 | | 130 | 130 | 80 | | | CU2602 - CU2601 (Main - near - month) | 100 | | 80 | 70 | 120 | | | CU2602/AL2602 | 4.24 | 4.21 | 4.19 | 3.98 | | | CU2602/ZN2602 | 4.04 | 3.99 | 3.98 | 3.85 | | | Import Profit | - 1049 | - 675 | - 946 | - 924 | | | Shanghai - London Ratio (Main) | 7.90 | 7.91 | 7.95 | 8.03 | [24][25][26][27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Core Views - The report analyzes the aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy markets, considering factors such as production, inventory, cost, and consumption. It concludes that aluminum and aluminum alloy prices may have limited downside in the long - term, while alumina faces supply - side pressure [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,750 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened at 21,845 yuan/ton and closed at 21,915 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from the previous period [1][2] Market Analysis - Mozambique's 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be cut in March 2026 due to water and electricity shortages and high power costs. The Fed's December interest rate cut has been priced in, and there are few short - term macro - level positive factors. The social inventory is not smoothly decreasing, and the spot discount is difficult to repair. However, the low inventory level limits the downside of aluminum prices [6] Alumina Price and Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,539 yuan/ton and closed at 2,558 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.95%). The Shanxi price was 2,755 yuan/ton, the Shandong price was 2,685 yuan/ton, etc. The overseas East Australia FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton. The domestic warehouse receipt pressure is not relieved, with over 110,000 tons of January - due warehouse receipts [2] Market Analysis - Some mines in Guinea are resuming production, increasing the price pressure on the ore end. The supply side is unlikely to have large - scale production cuts in the short term, and the supply surplus pattern cannot be reversed. The electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, and the winter storage replenishment expectation is low [7] Aluminum Alloy Price, Inventory, and Cost - profit - On December 17, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 16,900 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 21,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The social inventory was 73,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,100 tons. The theoretical total cost was 21,245 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 145 yuan/ton [3][4][5] Market Analysis - The report has a cautiously bullish view on the aluminum alloy market, but no detailed analysis of market factors is provided in the given text [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [8] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - With the growing expectation of continuous monetary easing and the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 950 yuan/gram and 1000 yuan/gram. Silver has been hitting new historical highs, and the gold-silver ratio has been narrowing. The price of silver is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 14900 yuan/kg and 15900 yuan/kg [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed Governor Waller stated that with a weakening job market and controlled inflation, the Fed still has 50 to 100 basis points of room for interest rate cuts, but no drastic action is needed based on the current economic outlook. Geopolitically, US President Trump ordered a "total and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and labeled the Venezuelan government a "foreign terrorist organization." US and Russian officials are expected to meet in Miami this weekend, and relevant plans are still being formulated [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 972.50 yuan/gram and closed at 979.72 yuan/gram, a 0.85% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 977.00 yuan/gram and closed at 982.48 yuan/gram, a 0.28% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 14,690.00 yuan/kg and closed at 15,512.00 yuan/kg, a 5.77% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,627,068 lots, and the open interest was 388,994 lots. In the night session, it opened at 15,447 yuan/kg and closed at 15,594 yuan/kg, a 0.53% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 17, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.153%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.672%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions increased by 1,825 lots compared to the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 846 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 350,879 lots, a 9.75% decrease from the previous trading day. On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 11,227 lots, and the short positions increased by 13,690 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 2,872,967 lots, a 6.50% increase from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,051.69 tons compared to the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings decreased by 43 tons to 16,018 tons [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.81 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,455.85 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 63.16, a 4.65% decrease from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 67.90, a 0.02% decrease from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On December 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 49,760 kg, a 28.88% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,320,846 kg, a 24.09% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,200 kg [7].

油脂日报 | 2025-12-18 利空因素叠加，油脂持续承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8342.00元/吨，环比变化-68元，幅度-0.81%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7822.00 元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.64%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8950.00元/吨，环比变化-113.00元，幅度-1.25%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8390.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.47%，现货基差P05+48.00，环比变化 +28.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8250.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.36%，现货基差Y05+428.00， 环比变化+20.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9420.00元/吨，环比变化-140.00元，幅度-1.46%，现货基差 OI05+470.00，环比变化-27.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部（USDA）公布数据，民间出口商报告对中国出口销售19.8万吨大豆，对墨西哥出 口销售177055吨玉米，对未知目的地出口销售12.5万吨大豆，均于2025/2026年度交货。美国大豆、玉米 ...