新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-26 中东局势反复，铝价或维持震荡 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20530元/吨，较上一交易日下跌10元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至130元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20360元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 持平于-30元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20420元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌5元/吨至30元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-25日沪铝主力合约开于20300元/吨，收于20355元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨25元/ 吨，涨幅0.12%，最高价达20360元/吨，最低价达到20240元/吨。全天交易日成交117377手，较上一交易日减 少19256手，全天交易日持仓254015手，较上一交易日增加3930手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.4万吨。截止2025-06-25，LME铝库存337900 吨，较前一交易日减少2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-25 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3110元/吨，山东价格录得3120元/吨， ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Views - The market has returned to normal, and the EG price is oscillating. The EG main contract closed at 4323 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 4396 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.43%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot basis in East China was 81 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The domestic supply is gradually recovering, and overseas supply is also expected to increase. The demand is currently strong, but the demand is expected to be weak due to the concentrated maintenance plans of several large bottle - chip manufacturers in early July [2]. Directory Summary Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4323 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 4396 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.43%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot basis in East China was 81 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 68 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars/ton. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 95 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text. Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - No specific data provided in the given text. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 62.2 tons, up 0.6 tons. According to Longzhong data, it was 53.7 tons, down 2.7 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 7.7 tons, and the port inventory was stable. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 6.2 tons, which is relatively small, and the port inventory may decline again [1].

油脂日报 | 2025-06-26 巴西生柴政策变化，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8344.00元/吨，环比变化+18元，幅度+0.22%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7984.00 元/吨，环比变化+34.00元，幅度+0.43%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9476.00元/吨，环比变化-96.00元，幅度-1.00%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8460.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.24%，现货基差P09+116.00，环比变 化-38.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8170.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y09+186.00， 环比变化-24.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9660.00元/吨，环比变化-90.00元，幅度-0.92%，现货基差 OI09+184.00，环比变化+6.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据巴西国家能源政策委员会（CNPE）官员，巴西将生物柴油在柴油中的强制掺混比例从14% 上调至15%，将汽油中乙醇强制掺混比例从27%上调至30%。据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来 西亚6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views - The PVC market remains in a weak supply - demand situation, with the supply surplus unchanged and cost - side support weak, while the caustic soda market faces increasing supply pressure and lack of positive drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,871 yuan/ton (+27), the East China basis was - 141 yuan/ton (-27), and the South China basis was - 41 yuan/ton (-17) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,830 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 494 yuan/ton (+18), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit was - 1.0 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory was 40.2 million tons (+0.5), social inventory was 35.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate was 79.62% (-0.83%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate was 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall PVC开工 rate was 76.74% (-0.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.8 million tons (+1.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,279 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 159 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,446 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 783.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 111.28 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,233.53 yuan/ton (-50.51) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 36.65 million tons (-3.88), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.85 million tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda开工 rate was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate was 80.74% (-0.13%), the dyeing and printing East China开工 rate was 60.73% (-0.63%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate was 80.80% (+0.24%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The supply - demand pattern remains weak, with the supply surplus unchanged due to high production and expected new capacity in 6 - 7 months, and the cost - side support is weak. The downstream demand is weak domestically, while the export is increasing, but the sustainability of exports is uncertain [3] Caustic Soda - The supply pressure is expected to increase due to planned new capacity, the market trading is weak, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is shrinking. The demand of the main downstream alumina is increasing, but the non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The factory inventory is still high, and the caustic soda market lacks positive drivers [3] Strategy - PVC: Adopt a cautiously bearish approach and continue to monitor macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali still has room to compress, with the market remaining under pressure [4]

股指期权日报 | 2025-06-25 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-06-24，上证50ETF期权成交量为161.82万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为134.02万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为177.74万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为6.56万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为162.69万张；上证50股指期权成交量为4.58万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为8.90万张；中证1000期权总成交量为20.20万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.53，环比变动为-0.48；持仓量PCR报1.09，环比变动为+0.10； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.62，环比变动为-0.45；持仓量PCR报0.90，环比变动为+0.06； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.67，环比变动为-0.57；持仓量PCR报1.13，环比变动为+0.11 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报0.85 ，环比变动为-0.68；持仓量PCR报1.01；环比变动为+0.05； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.61，环比变动为-0.57 ；持仓 ...

期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13610元/吨，较前一日变动+145元/吨，幅度+1.08%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价14767元/吨，较前一日变动-13元/吨，现货基差CF09+1157，较前一日变动-158；3128B棉全国均价14883元/ 吨，较前一日变动-11元/吨，现货基差CF09+1273，较前一日变动-156。 近期市场资讯，据中国棉花信息网对全国棉花交易市场18个省市的154 家棉花交割和监管仓库、社会仓库、保税 区库存和加工企业库存调查数据显示，截止6月15日全国棉花商业库存312.69万吨，较5月底减少33.18万吨，降幅 9.59%。其中新疆疆内棉花库存为197.86万吨，较5月底减少28.92万吨；内地库存77.93万吨，较5月底减少5.36万吨； 进口棉保税库存为36.9万吨，较5月底增加1.1万吨。 农产品日报 | 2025-06-25 棉价震荡反弹，纸浆大幅下挫 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。宏观方面，中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过此次谈判中 并没有明显利好中国对美出口的协议达成，宏观环境不确定性仍强，需关 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-25 供需博弈，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13940元/吨，较前交易日变动-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.29%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.70元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.02元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+760，较前交易日变动+20；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.95元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1010，较前交易日变动+170；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-190，较前交易日变动+40。 据农业农村部监测， 据农业农村部监测，6月24日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.72，比昨天上升0.12个点，"菜 篮子"产品批发价格指数为112.74，比昨天上升0.14个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.29元/公斤，比昨 天上升1.0%；牛肉63.72元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；羊肉59.69元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.33元/公斤，比昨 天下降0.1%；白条鸡17.16元/公斤，比昨天上升1 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-25 产区天气改善，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3037元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%；菜粕2509合约2662元/吨，较前 日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.19%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2940元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-97， 较前日变动+0；江苏地区豆粕现货2850元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09-187，较前日变动-10；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2880元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-157，较前日变动+0。福建地区菜粕现货价格2640 元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差RM09-22，较前日变动-15。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部出口检验报告显示，截至6月19日当周，美国大豆出口检验量19.3万吨，上周为22.3万 吨，去年同期35万吨。2024/25年度迄今美国大豆出口检验量4562万吨，同比增长10.6%，达到全年出口目标的90.6%。 截至6月22日当周，美国大豆播种工作完成96%，上周96%，上年同期96%，五年均值97%。大豆优良率为66% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The credit spreads of the entire industry have recently declined slightly, but there are risks such as unexpected economic policies and global geopolitical conflicts [3]. - Upstream: International oil prices dropped significantly yesterday, and egg prices have recently rebounded [3]. - Midstream: The operating rates of polyester, PTA, and urea in the chemical industry have seasonally declined, while the PX operating rate has remained stable [3]. - Downstream: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights has periodically decreased [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the entire industry have recently declined slightly [3]. 3.2 Upstream - **Energy**: International oil prices dropped significantly compared to the previous day [3]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices have recently rebounded [3]. 3.3 Midstream - **Chemical Industry**: The operating rates of polyester, PTA, and urea have seasonally declined, while the PX operating rate has remained stable [3]. 3.4 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a near - three - year low [3]. - **Service Industry**: The number of domestic flights has periodically decreased [3]. 3.5 Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries have generally declined. For example, the credit spreads of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry decreased from 56.87BP last week to 56.12BP this week; the chemical industry decreased from 50.48BP to 47.16BP [47]. 3.6 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: The spot price of eggs increased by 4.46% year - on - year to 5.9 yuan/kg on June 24, while the spot price of corn was 2345.7 yuan/ton, up 0.43% year - on - year [48]. - **Energy**: The spot price of WTI crude oil was 68.5 dollars/barrel on June 24, down 4.54% year - on - year; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 71.5 dollars/barrel, down 2.39% year - on - year [48]. - **Chemical Industry**: The spot price of PTA was 5114.0 yuan/ton on June 24, up 1.37% year - on - year; the spot price of urea was 1804.0 yuan/ton, down 0.88% year - on - year [48]. - **Real Estate**: The cement price index nationwide was 137.8 on June 24, down 1.95% year - on - year; the building materials composite index was 111.0, down 0.75% year - on - year [48].

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-25 伊朗冲突放缓，甲醇价格大幅回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润720元/吨（-18）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2015元/吨（-18），内蒙北线基差236元/吨（+108），内蒙南线2060元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2305元/吨（-73）， 鲁南基差126元/吨（+53）；河南2240元/吨（-25），河南基差61元/吨（+100）；河北2220元/吨（+0），河北基差101 元/吨（+125）。隆众内地工厂库存367350吨（-11770），西北工厂库存237000吨（-100）；隆众内地工厂待发订单274780 吨（-27310），西北工厂待发订单149500吨（-17500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2640元/吨（-100），太仓基差261元/吨（+25），CFR中国302美元/吨（-4），华东进口价差89元 /吨（+27），常州甲醇2490元/吨；广东甲醇2465元/吨（-135），广东基差86元/吨（-10）。隆众港口总库存586400吨 （-65800），江苏港口库存293500吨（- ...