流动性日报 | 2025-10-30 能源化工板块成交4149.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+17.30%；持仓金额4343.60亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.83%； 成交持仓比为73.49%。 农产品板块成交3608.00亿元，较上一交易日变动+12.58%；持仓金额5627.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.02%；成 交持仓比为57.46%。 黑色建材板块成交2911.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+11.31%；持仓金额3771.90亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.91%； 成交持仓比为76.00%。 市场流动性概况 2025-10-29，股指板块成交6568.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.92%；持仓金额13381.30亿元，较上一交易日变动 +1.76%；成交持仓比为49.05%。 国债板块成交5207.14亿元，较上一交易日变动+25.56%；持仓金额8740.90亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.49%；成交 持仓比为57.55%。 基本金属板块成交4492.52亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.05%；持仓金额6010.61亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.39%；成 交持仓比为79.91%。 贵金属板块成交6430. ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-10-30 港口库存压力持续，内地库存回建 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润615元/吨（+10）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2020元/吨（+10），内蒙北线基差363元/吨（-6），内蒙南线2000元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2225元/吨（+0）， 鲁南基差168元/吨（-16）；河南2085元/吨（+5），河南基差28元/吨（-11）；河北2155元/吨（-10），河北基差158元/ 吨（-26）。隆众内地工厂库存376060吨（+15700），西北工厂库存231300吨（+12300）；隆众内地工厂待发订单215558 吨（-92），西北工厂待发订单113600吨（-6400）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2210元/吨（+3），太仓基差-47元/吨（-13），CFR中国257美元/吨（-3），华东进口价差-33元/ 吨（+6），常州甲醇2315元/吨；广东甲醇2225元/吨（+5），广东基差-32元/吨（-11）。隆众港口总库存1506470吨（-5730）， 江苏港口库存824300吨（-26200），浙江港 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for apples is neutral. It is expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain stable and firm, with a significant polarization [4]. - The investment rating for red dates is also neutral. If the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend may continue; otherwise, it will be in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes [8]. Core Viewpoints - For apples, the current late - Fuji trading in the production areas is active, but the commodity rate this year is low. The price of high - quality goods is supported, while the general goods have a chaotic price. The sales area has weak demand, and after the Frost's Descent, attention should be paid to the storage volume and the sales of medium - and low - grade goods [3][4]. - For red dates, the raw material acquisition in Xinjiang is nearly finished, with obvious price differences based on quality. The new goods in the Hebei sales area are on the market in small quantities, and the downstream purchases cautiously. The short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate slightly. The new - season yield is expected to be between 56 - 62 tons, and the quality is better than last year [7]. Summary by Catalog Market News and Important Data Apples - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9198 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.43% [1]. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late - Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10495 yuan/ton, a change of + 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.48% [5]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Recent Market Information Apples - The overall market of late - Fuji in production areas is stable with a slightly upward trend, and the storage work is in progress. In Shandong, the trading volume is increasing, the price of high - quality goods is stable and firm, and it is a bit difficult for merchants to purchase high - quality goods. In Gansu, the market is stable, and the merchant storage is in the later stage. In Shaanxi, the ordering of high - quality goods is in the middle - later stage, and the price of general goods is chaotic [2]. Red Dates - The acquisition of raw materials in Xinjiang is nearly finished, with prices determined by quality. New goods in the Hebei sales area are on the market in small quantities, and downstream merchants purchase according to demand. The short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate slightly [6]. Market Analysis Apples - The apple futures price declined slightly yesterday. The late - Fuji trading in production areas is active, but the futures market is weak. The price of high - quality goods is supported, while the general goods have a chaotic price. The sales area has weak demand. After the Frost's Descent, the acquisition time is tight, and attention should be paid to the storage volume and the sales of medium - and low - grade goods [3]. Red Dates - The red date futures price increased slightly yesterday. The raw material acquisition in Xinjiang is nearly finished, with obvious price differences based on quality. The new goods in the Hebei sales area are on the market in small quantities, and the downstream purchases cautiously. The new - season yield is expected to be between 56 - 62 tons, and the quality is better than last year [7]. Strategy Apples - Neutral. The supply of late - Fuji will increase this week, but the commodity rate is low. The price of high - quality goods is expected to be stable and firm, with a significant polarization [4]. Red Dates - Neutral. If the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend may continue; otherwise, it will be in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [2] - Coking Coal: Sideways [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [6] 2. Core Views - Steel market sentiment is warming up, and the futures market continues to rebound. However, the improvement of the weak industrial reality is limited, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron ore prices are running strongly, but the overall valuation is high, and there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future, which may put pressure on prices [2]. - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded significantly due to supply disturbances. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight, and the demand for coke remains resilient [3][4]. - The support of rigid demand for thermal coal has weakened, and the coal prices in the production areas continue to decline [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3133 yuan/ton and 3345 yuan/ton respectively. Spot transactions are average, with weak rigid demand and more low - price purchases in the futures - spot market. The basis has shrunk. The inventory of building materials is being depleted, iron - water production is slightly decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious. Short - term macro sentiment has warmed up, and raw material support is strong [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices continued to rise yesterday. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties are strong. Traders' quotes mostly follow the market, and steel mills' purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative spot trading volume at major ports is 95.1 tons, up 6.61% from the previous day; the cumulative forward - looking spot trading volume is 123.0 tons (11 transactions), down 26.26% from the previous day. The current overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the supply is relatively loose at high prices. Although steel mill profits continue to decline, production cuts are limited, iron - water production remains high, and the decline in iron ore demand is slow. There is a possibility of supply - demand weakening in the future [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - sided trading; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. Due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and concentrated working - face changes in the production areas, production has been continuously restricted. An accident in an individual coal mine has intensified market concerns about coal supply in the fourth quarter. The price of imported Mongolian coal fluctuates slightly, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at 1130 - 1150 yuan/ton. Some coke enterprises have initiated the third round of price increases, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased. The market sentiment of coking coal is positive, and the overall inventory is at a medium - low level, with resilient demand [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading of both coking coal and coke; no strategies for spread trading, cross - commodity trading, futures - spot trading, and options trading [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening. Rigid demand from chemical plants and large terminal customers has weakened. After major railway bureaus cancelled railway shipping discounts, the shipping cost of terminals has increased, and the enthusiasm of traders for shipping has declined. At ports, the daily consumption of coastal terminals has decreased, traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and buyers are more hesitant. The import coal market is weakly stable, with imported goods mostly in the hands of traders, and the winning bid prices of power plants are falling [6]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 and corn sectors is "Cautiously Bearish" [4][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the domestic fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic arrival volume is sufficient, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal remains at a relatively high level, with overall supply being relatively loose. Future focuses include the Sino - US negotiation situation and the sowing progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] - For the corn market, on the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has recovered slightly in the Northeast region due to the slightly stronger price, while in the North China region, the risk of bad grain has decreased, and the shipment rhythm of moist grain has slowed down. On the demand side, the inventory of various channels is low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 粕类 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2969 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2373 yuan/ton, a change of - 23 yuan/ton (- 0.96%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 41, a change of + 16 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 - 39, a change of + 6; in Guangdong, it was 2940 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 29, a change of - 4. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 207, a change of + 3 [1] - **Market Information**: As of last Thursday, the planting rate of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans reached 36% of the expected sown area, the same as last year. Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to be 7 million tons. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.061 million tons [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, with sufficient arrivals and high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal. Future focuses are on Sino - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2116 yuan/ton, a change of - 7 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2427 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton (+ 0.12%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 24, a change of + 7; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 123, a change of - 3 [4] - **Market Information**: As of October 25, the planting of the first - season corn in Brazil in 2025/26 was 40.0% completed, compared with 33.2% last week, 36.8% last year, and a five - year average of 39.6% [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast has recovered slightly, and the shipment of moist grain in North China has slowed down. On the demand side, inventory is low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Group 2: Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, but smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous metals sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot - On October 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.54/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 29, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,325 lots, a decrease of 10,850 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 73,518 lots, a decrease of 4,117 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,410 yuan/ton and a low of 17,315 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,360 yuan/ton and closed at 17,360 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 110 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, some smelters with low inventories raised prices for sales, quoting at a premium of 20 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead for ex-factory sales, while traders actively lowered premiums for sales, quoting at a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead. Downstream battery enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, and the trading of scattered goods remained light [2] Inventory - On October 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 224,875 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc price increase still needs to test the sustainability of zinc consumption resilience. Although the micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish and the macro - environment remains positive, the overseas mine inventory is still high. [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $171.09/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,355 yuan/ton and closed at 22,430 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 114,143 lots, and the open interest was 118,849 lots. The highest price was 22,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,320 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 29, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,500 tons, up 0.14 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,200 tons, down 50 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Smelters have strong demand for ore procurement, and TC at the ore end is expected to decline further. Although the import loss of imported ore is still significant, the TC of imported ore has also started to decline. The domestic supply pressure remains, but the smelting profit is compressed. If TC continues to decline, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. [4] - The export window is fully open, and the LME spot premium remains high. However, the uncertainty of delivery restrains the export enthusiasm, and the overseas inventory is difficult to show a trend increase, with the existence of warehouse receipt risk suppression. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, most treasury bond futures closed higher yesterday. Overall, the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.30% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, with a - 0.40% change (-4.55%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, with a +0.40% month - on - month change (+0.81%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 99.13, with a +0.42 month - on - month change (+0.43%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0972, with a +0.000 month - on - month change (+0.00%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.51, with a - 0.02 month - on - month change (-1.18%); DR007 was 1.55, with a - 0.01 month - on - month change (-0.82%); R007 was 1.53, with a +0.02 month - on - month change (+1.49%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, with a - 0.01 month - on - month change (-0.32%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a +0.00 month - on - month change (-0.32%) [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of the treasury bond and treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation of funds in each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc. [15][16][18] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Multiple charts are provided to show the money market funding situation, including the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance situation [28][31] IV. Spread Overview - Multiple charts are provided to show the spread situation, including the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [37][40][44] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of two - year treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, etc. [42][46][54] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of five - year treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, etc. [56][60][61] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of ten - year treasury bond futures, including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, etc. [63][65][66] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of thirty - year treasury bond futures, including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, etc. [70][72][76] Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase interest rates, be cautiously bullish on 2512 [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the basis rebound of 2512 [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC rebounds with macro - sentiment, but supply is ample and demand is average. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies and "15th Five - Year Plan" real estate policies. The PVC market is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and V01 - 05 should be reverse - arbitraged when prices are high [3][4] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a downward trend. There are new production capacities, and demand is affected by environmental control and seasonal factors. The market should be observed, and the impact of new alumina plant procurement needs to be noted [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4775 yuan/ton (+59). The East China basis is - 135 yuan/ton (- 49), and the South China basis is - 55 yuan/ton (- 49) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 740 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 723 yuan/ton (- 10), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 560 yuan/ton (- 8), and the PVC export profit is - 4.6 dollars/ton (- 0.9) [1] - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory is 33.4 tons (- 2.7), the social PVC inventory is 55.5 tons (- 0.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 71.65% (- 3.08%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 78.56% (+2.46%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 73.74% (- 1.40%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 63.5 tons (+8.0) [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises have resumed production, and new production capacities are gradually reaching full production, resulting in an abundant supply [3] - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased, but the trading atmosphere is average. The social inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute inventory level is high [3] - Export: In September, PVC exports were 34.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.94% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative exports were 292.15 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.58%. However, the export of PVC products may be affected by anti - dumping investigations [3] - Futures: The PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures price persists [3] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2361 yuan/ton (+20), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 139 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1250 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 965.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 133.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1034.24 yuan/ton (- 101.01) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.43 tons (+1.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operating rate is 80.80% (- 0.60%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina operating rate is 86.27% (+0.05%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 67.31% (+0.55%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 88.61% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - Supply: New production capacities have reached full production, and there are both new maintenance enterprises and those increasing production. The supply is affected by new capacity releases and maintenance situations [3] - Demand: The alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the unloading efficiency has decreased. The alumina operating rate has been slightly affected by environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid procurement and will enter the off - season [3] - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased [3] - Price support: The expected commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi and ongoing caustic soda tenders may support the caustic soda price in the next two months [3]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is good, with consumption support and continuous inventory reduction, but the market may fall if consumption weakens and mines resume production [4] - The lithium business of some companies has shown different trends. For example, the third - quarter performance of Yahua Group has improved significantly, while Tianqi Lithium has achieved a turnaround in net profit despite a decline in revenue [2][3] Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 was 82,240 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 82,900 yuan/ton, a 0.80% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 659,421 lots, and the position was 506,882 lots, up from 488,803 lots the previous day. The basis was - 2,390 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warrants was 2,7525 lots, a change of 190 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 77,500 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 76,400 - 77,500 yuan/ton, both up 650 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 955 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of spodumene and salt lake ends both above 60%. The total output of lithium carbonate in October is expected to continue to rise and may break the historical record [1] - The demand side is strong. The new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger fields, and the energy storage market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand, continuously driving the demand for lithium - battery materials [1] Company Performance - Yahua Group's Q3 2025 revenue was 2.624 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.97%; net profit was 198 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 278.06%. The revenue in the first three quarters was 6.047 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.07%; net profit was 334 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 116.02%. The company's lithium business performance improved in Q3, and it has sufficient orders in Q4 [2] - Tianqi Lithium's Q3 2025 revenue was 2.565 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 29.66%; net profit was 95.4855 million yuan, turning a profit year - on - year. The revenue in the first three quarters was 7.397 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 26.50%; net profit was 180 million yuan, turning a profit year - on - year [3] Strategy - Short - term range operation. Observe the inflection points of inventory and consumption, and sell hedging at high prices when appropriate [4] - There is no strategy for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]