甲醇日报 | 2025-12-19 港口小幅去库，内地成交一般 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润520元/吨（-18）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1925元/吨（-18），内蒙北线基差351元/吨（-36），内蒙南线1930元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2260元/吨（+5），鲁 南基差286元/吨（-13）；河南2135元/吨（+25），河南基差161元/吨（+7）；河北2125元/吨（+0），河北基差211元/ 吨（-18）。隆众内地工厂库存391140吨（+38310），西北工厂库存225800吨（+26800）；隆众内地工厂待发订单220429 吨（+12958），西北工厂待发订单117800吨（+16200）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2155元/吨（+25），太仓基差-19元/吨（+7），CFR中国249美元/吨（+4），华东进口价差-26元/ 吨（-7），常州甲醇2355元/吨；广东甲醇2110元/吨（+15），广东基差-64元/吨（-3）。隆众港口总库存1218818吨（-15552）， 江苏港口库存604025吨（-31075） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The rebound of nickel and stainless steel prices is due to technical oversold repair and improved macro - liquidity, not a substantial improvement in fundamentals. The nickel market has high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern, so nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The stainless steel market faces low demand, high inventories, and a declining cost center, and is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 113,600 yuan/ton and closed at 113,940 yuan/ton, a 1.07% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 97,677 (- 41,919) lots, and the open interest was 85,352 (- 8,713) lots. The Indonesian government's proposed nickel ore production target of about 250 million tons in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB), a significant drop from 379 million tons in 2025 RKAB, promoted the nickel price rebound [1] - In the nickel ore market, there were recent transactions, and prices remained stable. In the Philippines, a 1.4% nickel ore FOB40 transaction was completed at the northern mine Eramen. Shipping efficiency was okay. Downstream factories' production plans remained unchanged, and their price - pressing mentality for raw material nickel ore procurement might ease. In Indonesia, the (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price in December was expected to decline by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/wet ton. The current mainstream premium was + 25, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 26. Due to the rainy season in Indonesian mines, nickel ore supply decreased, but some iron plants had production - cut plans, so the change in domestic trade premium was limited and expected to remain flat [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 119,800 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Jinchuan's supply was tight, and the premium increased. The spot premiums of other refined nickel brands decreased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 350 yuan/ton to 6,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 37,513 (- 748) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 253,998 (+ 690) tons [2] Strategy - With high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern unchanged, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy is mainly range - trading for the unilateral position, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,380 yuan/ton and closed at 12,420 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 101,495 (- 41,522) lots, and the open interest was 133,015 (- 4,171) lots. The slight rebound of stainless steel was due to technical oversold repair and the recovery of raw material nickel prices, but the strength was limited, indicating low market confidence [3] - With the rebound of the futures market, the spot price quotation was repaired, market confidence increased, and the transaction of low - price resources was good. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,650 (+ 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,650 (+ 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 330 - 530 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 884.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless steel is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

油料日报 | 2025-12-19 豆一供紧需弱价格持稳，花生预计稳中趋弱 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4041.00元/吨，较前日变化-49.00元/吨，幅度-1.20%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01+159，较前日变化+49，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北地区大豆基层农户手中存粮较少，普遍存在较强的惜售观望情绪，期待价格进一步上涨， 导致市场上实际可流通粮源较为紧张。受此影响，部分大型加工企业收购价格呈现上涨趋势。同时中储粮入市收 购的政策进一步明确了市场价格的底部区间，为大豆价格提供了有力的底部支撑。在上述因素共同作用下，现货 市场行情表现偏强。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较前一日 平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦 市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.06元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41% 蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall downstream start - up has slightly increased, but the supply pressure persists. The supply of propylene remains in a loose pattern, and the downstream demand support is limited. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and one should wait for marginal device maintenance [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 5770 yuan/ton (+26), the East China spot price is 5925 yuan/ton (-50), the North China spot price is 5955 yuan/ton (-60), the East China basis is 155 yuan/ton (-76), and the North China basis is -22 yuan/ton (-100) [1]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Propylene capacity utilization rate is 74% (+0%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 217 US dollars/ton (+3), and the import profit is -343 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report mentions the import profit of propylene is -343 yuan/ton (-2), but there is no other detailed information on import and export profit [1]. IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder: Capacity utilization rate is 37% (-2.62%), production profit is -155 yuan/ton (+60) [1]. - Epoxy propane: Capacity utilization rate is 76% (+0%), production profit is -276 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - N - butanol: Capacity utilization rate is 78% (+9%), production profit is 146 yuan/ton (+37) [1]. - Octanol: Capacity utilization rate is 82% (+5%), production profit is 540 yuan/ton (+43) [1]. - Acrylic acid: Capacity utilization rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is 376 yuan/ton (+18) [1]. - Acrylonitrile: Capacity utilization rate is 81% (+0%), production profit is -643 yuan/ton (+41) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: Capacity utilization rate is 76% (-4%), production profit is -927 yuan/ton (+25) [1]. V. Propylene Inventory - The propylene plant inventory is 46,560 tons (+600) [1].

尿素日报 | 2025-12-19 环保问题部分上游减产 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-18，尿素主力收盘1708元/吨（+62）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1680 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1710元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1700元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：2 元/吨（-42）；河南基差：-28元/吨（-52）；江苏基差：-8元/吨（-42）；尿素生产利润180元/吨（+20），出口利润849 元/吨（+1）。 供应端：截至2025-12-18，企业产能利用率80.69%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.97 万吨（-5.45），港口样本 库存量为13.80 万吨（+1.50）。 需求端：截至2025-12-18，复合肥产能利用率39.37%（-1.25%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.55%（-3.31%）；尿素企 印度NFL发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购150万吨（西海岸80万吨东海岸70万吨）。2026年1月2日截标，有效 期至1月16日，最晚船期2月20日。尿素现货低价成交好转，市场交投氛围转强。供应端四季度气头检修12月逐渐 开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market sentiment is cautious, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate. The iron ore market has iron water production declining, and ore prices maintaining a volatile trend. The double - coke market sentiment is rising, with both futures and spot prices showing a small resonance. The thermal coal spot market maintains a downward trend, and the market sentiment is cautious [1][3][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,125 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,277 yuan/ton. The spot steel trading was generally weak, the basis shrank overall, and the national building materials trading volume was 102,203 [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Building materials production increased slightly, inventory continued to decline, and demand remained stable. Plate production declined slightly, but demand resilience remained. Short - term raw material disturbances were frequent, and attention should be paid to environmental protection, seasonal production cuts, demand and de - stocking changes, profit conditions, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price fluctuated. The 2605 contract closed at 777.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 1.63% from the previous settlement price. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading volume was 982,000 tons, a 18.17% increase from the previous day [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The port inventory showed an increasing trend, and the supply was relatively loose. The downstream finished product demand declined seasonally, the inventory pressure increased, the iron water production continued to decline, but the short - term production decline was beneficial to steel prices, and the market pessimism eased. Attention should be paid to the actual production cut rhythm of steel mills and the change in port inventory structure [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [4] Double - Coke - **Market Analysis**: The double - coke market led the rise in the black sector, with significant increases in the closing prices of the main contracts of coking coal and coke. The import volume of Mongolian coal decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The spot market followed the futures market, and the market sentiment improved [4] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply of coking coal increased slightly, but domestic mine production remained low. Downstream coke enterprises had low enthusiasm for replenishing inventory, and steel mills mainly made rigid procurement. Coke production declined slightly due to environmental protection, and demand was limited. In the future, iron water production is expected to decline seasonally, and supply is expected to be changeable due to policy disturbances. Attention should be paid to coking coal supply, warehouse receipt pressure, steel mill profits, and winter storage plans [4][5] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to have a volatile market, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [5] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices continued to be weak, and downstream procurement was on - demand. Some mines' sales improved after price cuts, and a few high - quality mines began to increase prices slightly. At the port, the market decline continued, with only sporadic transactions and strong price - bargaining. The port inventory was high, and the turnover rate was low, with the short - term decline expected to continue. The decline in the imported coal market narrowed, and the advantage of low - calorie coal became prominent [6] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Recently, coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and relatively high inventory. Some mines have completed their annual tasks, and future supply is difficult to improve significantly. In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and replenishment [6] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic inventory de - stocking trend remains unchanged. Short - term consumption resilience limits the depth of zinc price correction, and there is a possibility of re - inflation in the long - term under the interest rate cut cycle [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.57 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,130 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,020 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 15 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,030 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 18, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,000 yuan/ton, closed at 23,030 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 92,275 lots, and the open interest was 52,902 lots. The highest price was 23,105 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,965 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 122,200 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 99,400 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Downstream rigid - demand procurement continues to repair the spot premium. Domestic consumption shows resilience, and social inventory is declining. Overseas inventory has increased sharply, and the premium has turned into a discount. The export window for Chinese zinc ingots has closed, but the concentrated delivery is not expected to last, and the absolute inventory level is still low. The TC of zinc mines continues to decline. High - altitude areas in China have started to reduce production, resulting in a decrease in domestic ore supply. However, smelters' procurement demand and enthusiasm remain high, and the TC of zinc mines is expected to decline slightly. The comprehensive smelting losses of smelters have expanded, and the supply in December may still be lower than expected, with a significant decrease in supply pressure compared to the previous period [5] Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously bullish - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal has not changed, with high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. The overall soybean meal price is mainly in a range - bound movement. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - In the domestic corn market, the grain - selling progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but the effective supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price reaches a relatively high level and holidays approach, the grain - selling progress is expected to accelerate. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and the demand from feed enterprises is rigid [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2747 yuan/ton, a change of - 9 yuan/ton or - 0.33% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2340 yuan/ton, a change of + 9 yuan/ton or + 0.39% [1] - Spot: Tianjin's soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 343, a change of + 9; Jiangsu's was 3020 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 273, a change of - 11; Guangdong's was 3030 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 283, a change of - 1. Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 + 220, a change of + 1 [1] - Market information: Brazil's soybean export volume in December is expected to be 3.57 million tons (previously 3.33 million tons), and the soybean meal export volume is expected to be 2 million tons (previously 1.83 million tons) [1] Group 4: Market News and Key Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2190 yuan/ton, a change of - 16 yuan/ton or - 0.73% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2499 yuan/ton, a change of - 13 yuan/ton or - 0.52% [3] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C01 + 115, a change of + 21; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS01 + 131, a change of + 13 [3] - Market information: As of December 10, the sowing progress of corn in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 59.2% (up from 44% a week ago), and the corn yield is expected to reach a record 61 million tons. The wheat harvest progress was 60.2%, a 15 - percentage - point increase week - on - week [3]

%56789:;<=>?2025-12-19 !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) CPI !"#$%&'()*+,-. ——!"#$%&'(! ■ 34 经济数据短期波动风险，上游价格快速上涨风险 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观数据丨 2025/12/19 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 12 月 18 日晚美国劳工部公布 11 月通胀数字。其中： 同比：CPI+2.7%，预期+3.1%，前值+3.0%；核心 CPI+2.6%，预期+3.0%，前值+3.0%。 &'"( ■ 11 ! CPI "#$%&'() 本次美国 11 月 CPI 整体低于市场预期，通胀显示进一步降温迹象。数据显示，CPI 同 比为 2.7%，略低于市场预期的 3.1%；核心 CPI 同比回落至 2.6%，同样弱于预期。从结 构看，住房通胀明显降温，超级核心服务价格涨幅同步放缓，核心商品与服务环比走 弱，通胀动能边际减弱。不过，由于联邦政府停摆导致 10 月数据缺失、采集周期被压 缩，部 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the provided content. Summary by Directory 1. Option Trading Volume - On December 17, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.3061 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.6464 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.9001 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.0808 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 2.9914 million contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 0.0645 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 0.1825 million contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 0.4433 million contracts [1]. - The table also shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day, such as 0.7279 million call contracts and 0.6419 million put contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, with a total of 1.3697 million contracts [18]. 2. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.77, with a month - on - month change of - 0.51; the open - interest PCR was reported at 1.00, with a month - on - month change of + 0.13. Similar data for other options are also provided, like the turnover PCR of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 0.96, with a month - on - month change of - 0.57, and the open - interest PCR was 1.10, with a month - on - month change of + 0.18 [2]. - The table details the turnover PCR, its month - on - month change, open - interest PCR, and its month - on - month change for various index ETF options [32]. 3. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 13.87%, with a month - on - month change of - 1.19%. For CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), the VIX was 16.05%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.21%. Similar data for other options are presented, such as the VIX of ChiNext ETF options was 27.52%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.16% [3]. - The table shows the VIX and its month - on - month change values for various index ETF options [48].