1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, with potential for improved US cotton supply - demand. Domestic cotton has a tight supply situation at the end of this season, but new - year production increase expectations limit the upside of cotton prices [2] - For sugar, the adjustment of syrup policy may cause short - term negative sentiment, but the low domestic sugar inventory restricts the continuous decline space [5] - For pulp, the current pulp market fundamentals have no significant improvement, and the short - term pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,010 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,352 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,451 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [1] - Overseas: As of August 29, India's new - year cotton planting area was 10.88 million hectares, a 2.3% decrease from last year. As of August 31, Pakistan's new - year ginned cotton equivalent was about 207,000 tons, a 50.5% increase from two weeks ago and an 8.6% increase from last year [1] Market Analysis - International: India extended the tariff - free period, and the USDA adjusted global cotton production and inventory, making the supply - demand pattern tight. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but the slow export sales limit the upside [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton de - stocking is fast, and the commercial inventory is at a low level. The late - issued and limited - quantity sliding - scale duty quota did not solve the cotton shortage. With the approaching peak season, the domestic cotton price has strong support, but the new - year production increase and future hedging pressure limit the upside [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. In the short term, there is strong support for Zhengzhou cotton prices before the large - scale listing of new cotton. In the medium term, the peak listing period may face pressure, and there may be a decline if the peak season is disappointing [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,533 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-0.52%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,845 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - Overseas: Ukraine's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to drop from 1.8 million tons to 1.5 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugar production forecast has been lowered, and Pakistan's sugar purchase supports prices. However, with the peak crushing season in Brazil and the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere, the upside is limited [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The high import profit and large - scale imports in July, along with expected processed sugar supply in August - September, put pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the possible increase in syrup imports in August [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The syrup policy adjustment may cause short - term negative sentiment, but the low domestic sugar inventory restricts the decline space [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,052 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,715 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some price fluctuations among different pulp types [6] Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, the slow de - stocking at ports and high inventory levels keep the supply pressure high, with hardwood pulp supply being looser [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is increasing. In China, the demand is weak during the off - season, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The planned new paper production capacity has not effectively increased the output due to insufficient terminal demand [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The short - term pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level due to the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil investment rating: Sideways [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil investment rating: Sideways [2] - Cross-variety investment rating: None [2] - Cross-period investment rating: None [2] - Futures-spot investment rating: None [2] - Options investment rating: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical and macroeconomic situation remains unclear, especially the limited progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, leading to many uncertainties in the short term for the crude oil market. The news of OPEC's plan to further increase production caused oil prices to decline again, driving down the FU and LU futures prices [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and rebalancing, with mixed bullish and bearish factors. Supply has tightened due to sanctions on Russia and Iran and drone attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine, while Middle Eastern fuel oil exports are increasing, and domestic refinery procurement demand remains weak [1]. - The low-sulfur fuel oil market currently faces limited pressure, with domestic production at a low level, the overseas market in a mild Back structure, and the spot premium turning negative. In the short term, the market structure is relatively stable but lacks strong drivers. In the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, there is also significant upward resistance [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 2.4% at 2,760 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.21% at 3,412 yuan/ton [1]. - Brent crude oil prices fell below $67 per barrel, driving down the FU and LU futures prices [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil market drivers are limited, with supply tightening and weak demand [1]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable in the short term but faces challenges in the medium term [1]. Group 4: Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil strategy: Sideways [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil strategy: Sideways [2] - Cross-variety strategy: None [2] - Cross-period strategy: None [2] - Futures-spot strategy: None [2] - Options strategy: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, TC prices are continuously declining, and smelter maintenance is increasing. On the demand side, dealer inventory depletion is slow, purchasing意愿 is low, and some enterprises' finished - product inventories are accumulating. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles and Middle - East tariff policies in September, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a trading range between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On September 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.09 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On September 4, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,865 yuan/ton, closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 25,910 lots, a decrease of 4,432 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 50,042 lots, a decrease of 596 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,835 yuan/ton and 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,890 yuan/ton and closed at 16,870 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The lead market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply is affected by falling TC prices and increased smelter maintenance. Demand is weak as dealers have slow inventory depletion and low purchasing意愿, and some enterprises have accumulated finished - product inventories [3] Inventory Data - On September 4, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 4, the LME lead inventory was 251,200 tons, a decrease of 3,350 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Short - term UR01 - 05 positive spread can trade on fluctuations; after the export window period, UR01 - 05 can conduct reverse spread at high levels [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - India's NFL urea import tender received a large amount of supplies at a lower price, and the follow - up award quantity is worthy of attention [2] - The domestic urea spot market has seen improved transactions after price cuts, but the sustainability is weak; agricultural and industrial demands co - exist, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is still loose [2] - Urea production is high, with a decline this week due to more maintenance; coal - based urea profit is acceptable with general cost support [2] - September is the export window period, with continuous exports and increasing port inventories; follow - up attention should be paid to port operations and export dynamics [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - On September 4, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1714 yuan/ton (+0); Henan small - particle ex - factory price was 1710 yuan/ton (0); Shandong small - particle price was 1700 yuan/ton (-10); Jiangsu small - particle price was 1710 yuan/ton (-10); small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong basis was - 14 yuan/ton (-10); Henan basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-10); Jiangsu basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-10) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of September 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.11% (+0.08%); this week, there were many maintenance enterprises, and the production decreased; with new capacity release, the medium - and long - term urea supply - demand is still loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (-10); coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is general [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - India's NFL tender received a large amount of supplies, with the lowest price on the east coast at 462.45 US dollars/ton and on the west coast at 464.70 US dollars/ton, nearly 70 US dollars/ton lower than the previous price; urea export profit was 1186 yuan/ton (+4); September is the export window period, and exports are continuing [2][1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 4, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.08% (-6.14%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.98% (+0.48%); urea enterprise advance order days were 6.41 days (+0.35) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 109.50 million tons (+0.92), and the port sample inventory was 62.09 million tons (+2.09); the export collection rhythm has accelerated, and port inventories are continuously accumulating [1][2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "Oscillating" for unilateral trading, with no ratings provided for inter - period, cross - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the increasing expectation of OPEC production increase, the crude oil price dropped significantly yesterday, weakening the cost support for asphalt and causing the BU futures price to decline. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, with low inventory overall. However, refineries have seen inventory accumulation this week. The market's fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the short - term futures price may fluctuate with the crude oil price [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Market - On September 4, the closing price of the main BU2510 asphalt futures contract was 3468 yuan/ton, a 2.14% decrease from the previous trading day's settlement price. The open interest was 70,861 lots, a decrease of 22,224 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 128,082 lots, an increase of 26,904 lots [1] Spot Market - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3806 - 4086 yuan/ton, Shandong 3480 - 3820 yuan/ton, South China 3490 - 3550 yuan/ton, and East China 3560 - 3800 yuan/ton. The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China increased yesterday, while the price in Shandong decreased, and prices in other regions remained stable [1] Fundamental Analysis - The overall supply - demand pattern of asphalt remains weak, and inventory is at a low level. Refineries have seen inventory accumulation this week because of increased supply after the resumption of production at some major refineries and general terminal demand, which has led to poor purchase enthusiasm among industry players [1] Group 4: Chart Summary Price Charts - There are charts showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest regions, as well as the closing prices of the petroleum asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, and the near - month spread [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest Charts - There are charts presenting the unilateral trading volume and open interest of petroleum asphalt futures and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract [3] Production Charts - There are charts depicting the weekly domestic asphalt production, independent refinery asphalt production, and asphalt production in Shandong, East China, South China, and North China regions [3] Consumption Charts - There are charts showing domestic asphalt consumption in road construction, waterproofing, coking, and ship - fuel sectors [3] Inventory Charts - There are charts displaying asphalt refinery inventory and social inventory according to Longzhong's data [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The PVC market continues to be weak after the weakening of macro - sentiment, with supply pressure and weak demand, and the chlorine - alkali profit still has room for compression. The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight increase, and the non - aluminum downstream start - up rate is increasing. The chlorine - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [3][4]. Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4883 yuan/ton (+5), the East China basis is - 213 yuan/ton (-5), and the South China basis is - 133 yuan/ton (-25). The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The blue charcoal price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 64 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 399 yuan/ton (-176), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 628 yuan/ton (-36), and the PVC export profit is 13.7 US dollars/ton (-4.3) [1]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.2 tons (+0.6), the PVC social inventory is 52.2 tons (+1.4), the PVC calcium carbide - based start - up rate is 77.65% (+2.41%), the PVC ethylene - based start - up rate is 72.59% (+3.93%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 76.18% (+2.85%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (-2.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2593 yuan/ton (-19), the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 126 yuan/ton (+19). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 744.5 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 642.53 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.78 tons (+0.83), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 84.20% (+1.80%) [2]. - **Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 85.58% (-0.20%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 65.63% (+0.90%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 87.10% (+1.08%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market continues to be weak after the weakening of macro - sentiment. The supply side has increased production due to the resumption of many maintenance enterprises and new production capacity. The demand side has low downstream product start - up and weak export. The social inventory is accumulating, and the chlorine - alkali profit has room for compression [3]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight increase. The supply - side start - up rate is slightly rising. The demand - side inventory in Shandong has accumulated due to transportation restrictions, but the subsequent shipment pressure is small. The non - aluminum downstream start - up rate is increasing, and the chlorine - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [4]. Strategy PVC - **Single - sided**: Cautiously bearish. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Go short on the V01 - 05 spread when it is high. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5]. Caustic Soda - **Single - sided**: Cautiously bullish. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread when it is low. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR and suggests to focus on the Sheng Hong PX plant situation [5]. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, oil prices dropped significantly as Brent fell below $67 per barrel again due to OPEC considering further lifting production restrictions. The impact of the latest OPEC news on the oil market is more emotional, and the short - term direction of oil prices is unclear considering uncertainties like Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Naphtha has been strong recently due to supply disruptions and expected demand recovery [1][2]. - In the PX market, after the restart of Idemitsu's maintenance plant in early September and the future restart of Fuhai Chuang, the PX load at home and abroad is expected to rise. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, and the floating price of near - month PX has weakened, but PXN has support at the bottom due to low inventory and new PTA plant demand [2]. - In the PTA market, the actual maintenance volume of Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton PTA plant is less than expected and may restart ahead of schedule, narrowing the destocking range in September. The spot basis has weakened, and the demand recovery is limited with insufficient order connections [3]. - In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (up 0.3% month - on - month). There are signs of demand recovery, but this week's order connections are insufficient, and the weaving and texturing loads have declined. The polyester load is expected to continue to rise steadily in the short term [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 117 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The load has increased as some previously reduced - production plants have resumed, and the overall supply - demand situation has improved with inventory destocking, but there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 425 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan/ton month - on - month). The fundamentals have changed little, and the industry is expected to maintain a 20% production reduction target in September, with limited subsequent load increase and expected small fluctuations in processing fees [4]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [11][12][14] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan CFR naphtha spread, and PTA export profit [27][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operating rates in China and Asia [30][33][36] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing operating rates [48][50][59] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, production profits, and processing fees [70][80][82] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, export profit, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [89][91][104]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw continues, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market is influenced by the stock market, risk preference adjustment, Fed rate cut expectations, and global trade uncertainties. It oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short-term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - Due to the decline in repo rates, Treasury bond futures prices are fluctuating. Traders are advised to focus on the decline of the 2512 basis. For hedging, considering the medium-term adjustment pressure, short positions can use far-month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month-on-month increase and 0.00% year-on-year change, while China's PPI (monthly) has a -0.20% month-on-month and -3.60% year-on-year change [9]. - Economic indicators (monthly updated): Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a 1.04 trillion yuan increase and a 0.24% growth rate; M2 year-on-year is 8.80%, up 0.50% with a 6.02% growth rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, up 0.10% with a 0.20% growth rate [9]. - Economic indicators (daily updated): The US dollar index is 98.29, up 0.13 with a 0.13% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1406, down 0.004 with a -0.05% change; SHIBOR 7-day is 1.44, up 0.00 with a 0.28% growth rate; DR007 is 1.45, up 0.01 with a 0.51% growth rate; R007 is 1.67, down 0.26 with a -13.67% change; the 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.55, up 0.00 with a 0.08% growth rate; the AA-AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, up 0.00 with a 0.08% growth rate [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the closing price trends, price changes, precipitation funds trends, positions ratios, net positions ratios, long-short positions ratios, spreads between government bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance of Treasury bond futures main continuous contracts [12][13][16]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Charts show the trading statistics of interbank pledged repurchase and local government bond issuance [25]. 4. Spread Overview - Charts present the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures, and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [28][35][36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts display the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [42][46][49]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [51][55]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts present the implied yield and Treasury bond yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [58][60]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield and Treasury bond yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [65][71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the strategy is neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with future market trends depending on policy guidance and downstream demand improvement [1] - The peanut market's short - term supply - demand structure is expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to factors such as weather, new peanut quality, and pre - Mid - Autumn Festival downstream stocking demand [2] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures - The closing price of the bean one 2511 contract was 3965.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan/ton (+0.10%) from the previous day [1] Spot - The edible bean spot basis was A11 + 255, down 4 (-32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - The quotes of national standard first - class protein 39% or 41% medium - grain tower grain loading in various regions of Heilongjiang remained unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7778.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day [2] Spot - The average spot price of peanuts was 8440.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan/ton (+0.48%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 + 622.00, up 318.00 (+104.61%) month - on - month [2] Market Information - The national average price of common peanuts was 4.22 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. The prices of Henan Baisha common peanuts and 8 - sieve peanuts were given, and the prices of domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil remained unchanged [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - environment drives the rise in non - ferrous metal prices, with a weak spot market. Supply remains stable, consumption shows improvement, and the inventory build - up rate slows, with expected destocking. Overseas consumption is strong, and there is an increased expectation of interest rate cuts [6]. - Regarding alumina, the adjustment of Xinjiang delivery premium may create arbitrage opportunities. The cost side has support, and although the supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus, considering multiple factors, the price should be treated neutrally [6][7]. - For aluminum alloy, scrap aluminum supply is tight, but production profit has recovered, indicating consumption recovery. The increase in social inventory is due to the transformation of invisible inventory to visible inventory [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On September 4, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,610 yuan/ton, a change of - 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium was - 20 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,470 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 160 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,560 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 70 yuan/ton, a change of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,710 yuan/ton, closed at 20,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 160 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,765 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,525 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,216 lots, and the open interest was 206,617 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, a change of 0.3 tons; the warrant inventory was 59,583 tons, a change of 26 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons, with no change [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: On September 4, 2025, the price of alumina in Shanxi was 3,140 yuan/ton, Shandong was 3,120 yuan/ton, Henan was 3,160 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,270 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 3,280 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 368 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,998 yuan/ton, closed at 2,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 44 yuan/ton or - 1.46%. The highest price was 2,998 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,954 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 279,608 lots, and the open interest was 251,793 lots [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On September 4, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of ADC12 Baotai was 20,300 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 57,900 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 59,000 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,203 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 197 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The macro - environment drives the rise in non - ferrous metal prices, while the spot market is weak. Supply is stable, consumption is improving, and the inventory build - up rate slows, with expected destocking. Overseas consumption is strong, and there is an increased expectation of interest rate cuts [6]. - **Alumina**: A northwest aluminum plant purchased 10,000 tons of alumina at 3,230 yuan/ton, equivalent to a Shanxi ex - factory price of 3,060 yuan/ton. The adjustment of Xinjiang delivery premium by the SHFE may create arbitrage opportunities. The cost side has support, and although the supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus, considering multiple factors, the price should be treated neutrally [6][7]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, but production profit has recovered, indicating consumption recovery. The increase in social inventory is due to the transformation of invisible inventory to visible inventory [7]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side Strategy**: Bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Long - short arbitrage in SHFE aluminum, long AD11 and short AL11, and reverse arbitrage between January and March contracts of alumina [8]