Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Report Core View - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.84% at 2415 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.22% at 2905 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices rebounded after continuous decline, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the positive progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks is bearish for oil prices. The crude oil end will continue to suppress the unilateral prices of FU and LU [1] - For the fuel oil fundamentals, there are both bullish and bearish factors with limited overall contradictions. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is in the adjustment phase, and the crack spread shows signs of stabilizing after a sharp decline. The US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers may lead to a short - term decline in its crude oil shipments. If the situation does not escalate and domestic asphalt refineries face raw material shortages, the demand for fuel oil procurement may increase, which is an indirect positive for the market [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall market driver is limited. Due to the dynamic changes of the devices, there is room for a partial supply increase. However, the December shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria have not increased significantly, and the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel limits the short - term supply pressure [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.84% at 2415 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.22% at 2905 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices rebounded after continuous decline, but the oversupply expectation remains, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks are bearish for oil prices. The crude oil end will continue to suppress FU and LU prices [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil market structure is adjusting, crack spread shows signs of stabilizing. US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers may affect shipments, and domestic asphalt refineries' raw material shortage may increase fuel oil demand [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil market driver is limited, partial supply may increase, but December shipments from some countries have not risen significantly, and gasoline and diesel diversion limits supply pressure [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The EG basis continued to weaken. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3668 yuan/ton, with a change of +32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +0.88%. The EG East China spot basis was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5 yuan/ton month - on - month. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -91 US dollars/ton, an increase of +4 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -1050 yuan/ton, an increase of +26 yuan/ton month - on - month. The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 84.4 tons (CCF data) or 75.5 tons (Longzhong data), showing an increase [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved, but high supply would resume in January. Overseas supply returned to neutral, and the increase in port inventory could be moderately alleviated. On the demand side, polyester load remained firm with low inventory, but orders showed a marginal decline [2]. - For investment strategies, a neutral stance was recommended for unilateral trading. There was large production capacity release pressure, and the inventory accumulation pressure was still large from January to February [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3758 yuan/ton, a change of +58 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +1.57%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3668 yuan/ton, a change of +32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +0.88%. The EG East China spot basis was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -91 US dollars/ton, an increase of +4 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -1050 yuan/ton, an increase of +26 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. International Spread - The report mentioned the international spread of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR, but no specific data was provided [20]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Polyester load remained firm with low inventory, but orders showed a marginal decline. However, no specific data on downstream sales, production and operating rate was given in the provided text [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 84.4 tons, an increase of +2.5 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 75.5 tons, an increase of +3.6 tons month - on - month. The planned arrival volume at the main ports of East China this week was 11.8 tons, and the arrival volume at secondary ports was 3 tons, which was slightly high overall, and the main ports were expected to have a slight inventory accumulation [1].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 国内现货升贴水持续走强 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-16.47美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-160元/吨至23020元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水90元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-160元/吨至22930元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-20元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-150元/吨至22940元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-17沪锌主力合约开于23005元/吨，收于22970元/吨，较前一交易日-170元/吨，全天交易日成交 120568手，全天交易日持仓59226手，日内价格最高点达到23020元/吨，最低点达到22835元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-17，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.57万吨，较上期变化-0.26万吨。截止2025-12-17，LME 锌库存为97700吨，较上一交易日变化2150吨。 市场分析 国内现货市场随着绝对价格回落交投活跃，下游逢低点价补货，贸易商交投积极，现货升贴水持续修复。海外库 存激增升水转为贴水，中国锌锭出口窗口关闭，但集中交货预计难以持续， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 金属板块集体走高，沪镍不锈钢触底反弹 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-17日沪镍主力合约2601开于112400元/吨，收于113800元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.04%，当日成交量为 139596（-17691）手，持仓量为94065（-11503）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约探底后震荡回升。美联储降息利好已落地，目前整体宏观情绪仍偏谨慎，反弹更多 受到价格触底，以及其他金属品种的带动作用。基本面方面依然疲软。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场维持平静，镍矿价格持稳运行。菲律宾方面北部矿山多履行前期订单出货 为主，矿山挺价为主。游工厂生产计划未有变动，多需年前备库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态或将放缓。印尼方面， 12月(二期)内贸基准价预计走跌0.11-0.18美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+25，升水区间多在+25-26。 印尼矿山雨季到来，镍矿供应减少。但部分铁厂多有减产计划，因此镍矿内贸升水变动空间有限，预计持平。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格118500元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨400元/吨。现货交投一般，金川货源偏 ...

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries, analyzing price fluctuations, production, and sales trends [1][3] Upstream Industry - In the non - ferrous metals sector, nickel and lead prices have declined; in the agricultural sector, pork prices have slightly decreased; in the energy sector, international crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices continue to fall [3] - As of December 17, the prices of some agricultural products such as eggs, palm oil, and pork have decreased, while the prices of corn and cotton have increased; among non - ferrous metals, the prices of zinc and some aluminum products have decreased, while the prices of copper, nickel, and some other aluminum products have increased; in the energy sector, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal have decreased [36] Midstream Industry - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PX and PTA have declined; in the energy sector, the coal consumption of power plants has increased; in the infrastructure sector, the operating rate of road asphalt has decreased [3] Downstream Industry - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have continued to pick up at the end of the year; in the service sector, the number of domestic and international flights has continued to decline [3] Policy and Data - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have issued the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for the Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal in Key Areas (2025 Edition)", aiming to promote the clean and efficient utilization of coal and eliminate backward production capacity [1] - From January to November 2025, the stamp duty was 404.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27%. Among them, the securities trading stamp duty was 185.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 70.7%. In November 2025, the securities trading stamp duty was 22.6 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 24.86% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of 2.26% compared with November 2024 [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For the pig market, pre - holiday stocking supports demand, and farmers are bullish in the short - term. Pig prices show regional differences, with North, East, and Southwest China relatively strong and Northeast China relatively weak. Short - term slaughter volume is expected to increase, supporting pig prices. Post - holiday large - scale farm sales rhythm and the sustainability of consumption support for demand should be monitored [1][2] - For the egg market, pre - holiday sentiment is warming up, and egg prices are stable and slightly increasing. Southern sales areas are following the price increase in production areas. During the winter solstice stocking period, supermarket and food factory demand is high, but overall supply remains high due to low old - hen culling, which may limit price increases [3][4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Pig Market - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2603 contract was 11,435 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (+0.75%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 11.81 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.90 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.25 yuan/kg, unchanged. The national average wholesale price of pork was 17.43 yuan/kg, up 0.2% [1] Egg Market - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 3,092 yuan/500 kg, down 22 yuan (-0.71%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.96 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.10 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.80 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan. On December 17, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.94 days, unchanged, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, down 0.02 days (-1.53%) [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Pig Market - Pre - holiday stocking supports demand, and farmers are bullish in the short - term. Pig prices vary regionally. Short - term slaughter volume increase is expected to support prices, and post - holiday sales rhythm and consumption sustainability should be watched [2] Egg Market - Pre - holiday sentiment is positive, and egg prices are stable and rising. Southern sales areas follow the price increase in production areas. High demand during stocking and high supply may limit price increases [4] Group 5: Strategies - For both the pig and egg markets, the strategy is cautiously bearish [3][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the peak of short - term domestic arrivals has passed, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed, but the absolute inventory level remains high. The domestic start - up rate has decreased due to low profits, and downstream提货 is weak with continuous decline in downstream start - up rates during the off - season [3]. - For styrene, the inventory decline rate at ports has slowed, and the port basis has continued to decline after peaking. The downstream start - up rate is weak during the off - season, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory - holding willingness [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts of pure benzene, as well as EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts of styrene [8][14][15][19] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profit, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profit, and styrene import profit [22][24][29][34][36] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Start - up Rate - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, styrene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][41][43] IV. Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures present EPS start - up rate and production profit, PS start - up rate and production profit, ABS start - up rate and production profit [51][53][56] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures include caprolactam start - up rate and production profit, phenol - ketone start - up rate and production profit, aniline start - up rate and production profit, adipic acid start - up rate and production profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production profit, nylon filament production profit, bisphenol A production profit, PC production profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production profit, pure MDI production profit, and polymer MDI production profit [63][65][76][82][83][86]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-18 持续上涨驱动不足，板块延续震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约13925元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14978元/吨，较前一日变动+10元/吨，现货基差CF05+1053，较前一日变动+30；3128B棉全国均价15144元/吨， 较前一日变动+14元/吨，现货基差CF05+1219，较前一日变动+34。 近期市场资讯，16日2025/26年度印度棉花上市量折皮棉约4.2万吨，包含来自安得拉邦1.6万吨、马哈拉施特拉邦8670 吨及古吉拉特邦5950吨。据悉，16日CCI抛储约7.3万吨，前一日成交量为1972吨。具体来看，S-6竞拍底价稳定在 51500卢比/坎地，折约72.45美分/磅。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，短期ICE美棉仍将承压。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy is neutral, wait for clear bottom signals, focus on left - side buying opportunities on dips, and avoid chasing up [3] Group 2: Core View - On December 17, the afternoon closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract was 3,012 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a rise of 3.58%; the position was 235,465 lots, down 1,592 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 504,034 lots, up 131,674 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 2,820 - 3,270 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,920 - 3,100 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The sharp rise in asphalt futures yesterday was due to the rebound of crude oil prices after continuous declines, which eased the pressure on downstream energy - chemical commodities, and the gradual release of winter storage demand in the asphalt market; potential positive factors may come from raw material disturbances, as the situation in Venezuela has heated up, leading to a marginal tightening of Venezuelan oil shipments and a slight recovery in the discount of diluted asphalt. If the crisis persists, it may drive up the asphalt cost center. Considering the uncertainty of the Venezuelan situation and the current sufficient raw materials for domestic refineries, the rise is more sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the risk of expectation falsification. It is advisable to focus on low - buying and hedging strategies [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The afternoon closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract on December 17 was 3,012 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a rise of 3.58%; the position was 235,465 lots, down 1,592 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 504,034 lots, up 131,674 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 2,820 - 3,270 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,920 - 3,100 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton in East China [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for clear bottom signals, focus on left - side buying opportunities on dips, and avoid chasing up [3] - Cross - varieties: None [3] - Cross - periods: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Charts - There are charts showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the spreads of near - month contracts, the trading volume and positions of asphalt futures, the weekly production of domestic asphalt and the production of independent refineries and in different regions, the consumption of domestic asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and the inventories of asphalt refineries and social inventories [4]

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-18 烧碱山东去库，现货价格小幅上调 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4423元/吨（+24）；华东基差-13元/吨（+6）;华南基差7元/吨（+6）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4410元/吨（+30）；华南电石法报价4430元/吨（+30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格780元/吨（+0）；电石价格2905元/吨（-25）；电石利润-9元/吨（-25）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-1102元/吨（-83）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-520元/吨（-48）；PVC出口利润-3.0美元/吨（-6.7）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存34.4万吨（+1.8）；PVC社会库存51.7万吨（-1.2）；PVC电石法开工率79.13%（-2.96%）； PVC乙烯法开工率76.67%（+4.75%）；PVC开工率78.39%（-0.62%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量64.9万吨（-5.0）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2143元/吨（-17）；山东32%液碱基差107元/吨（+17）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价720元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱 ...