农产品周报 | 2025-10-12 关税战再次升级，板块跟随宏观波动 国内方面， 受9月下旬及国庆假期期间降温降雨影响，棉花采摘较预期有所推迟，采摘进度已近1/4，但前期籽棉 水分偏高，轧花厂严控超水籽棉。棉农基本顺价交售，随着近期籽棉水分降低，机采棉收购价涨至6.1-6.2元/公斤 左右。 市场分析 宏观方面，中美贸易战在2025年10月再度升级，双方采取强硬措施互相施压：美国威胁自11月1日起对中国商品加 征100%额外关税，中国则实施稀土出口管制、对美船舶征收特别港务费等措施。国际方面，美国联邦政府已停摆 超一周，受此影响本周美棉生长周报、出口装运以及USDA月报等数据均暂停发布。由于此前USDA对于中国等增 产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球棉市供需格局预计仍将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶 段性供应压力增加，而美棉出口签约表现不佳，需求端压力仍存。中长期需关注美棉减产预期的落地情况以及美 棉出口目标的实现情况。国内方面，棉花去库速度持续偏快，商业库存降至同期低位。不过节前籽棉已经陆续开 秤，轧花厂收购心态较为谨慎，前期抢收预期落空，籽棉收购价在6.0-6.2元/公斤左右，整体套保压力 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-10-10 市场流动性概况 2025-10-09，股指板块成交7953.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+12.80%；持仓金额14088.84亿元，较上一交易日变动 +5.81%；成交持仓比为56.36%。 国债板块成交3438.36亿元，较上一交易日变动-17.58%；持仓金额7841.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.11%；成交 持仓比为43.61%。 基本金属板块成交3884.32亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.99%；持仓金额5216.10亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.97%；成 交持仓比为77.91%。 贵金属板块成交4302.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-14.96%；持仓金额5224.37亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.70%；成 交持仓比为106.62%。 能源化工板块成交3065.12亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.89%；持仓金额4082.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.13%；成 交持仓比为63.38%。 农产品板块成交2887.47亿元，较上一交易日变动+23.44%；持仓金额5222.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.59%；成 交持仓比为48.20%。 黑色建材板块成交1723 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The market is worried about China's soybean supply in Q1 2026 due to the lack of a Sino - US trade consensus. Argentina's zero - tariff policy on agricultural product exports may intensify export competition between North and South America, leading to price drops in both international and domestic markets. Currently, the domestic downstream soybean supply is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates, which pressured domestic soybean meal prices down in September. Attention should be paid to policy changes as US soybean harvesting accelerates and Brazil's new - season soybean sowing progresses smoothly [3] - In the domestic corn market, the cooler weather this year is conducive to corn storage. New - grain listing and farmers' selling enthusiasm and acquisition situation need attention. As new - season corn has not been massively listed, supply in North and South China is tight, keeping prices firm. However, corn prices may enter a seasonal decline as new - grain supply increases [5] Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2939 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2435 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.58%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 51, up 9; in Jiangsu, it was 2900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 39, down 1; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 29, down 1. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 195, up 16 [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2138 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.23%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2430 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-1.54%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of C11 + 42, down 115; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CS11 + 130, up 28 [4] Market Information - Brazil: In September, Brazil's soybean exports were 734.1 million tons, higher than 610.6 million tons in the same period last year, with a daily average export of 33.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.2%. Brazil's corn exports in September were 756.3 million tons, compared to 642.1 million tons in September last year, with a daily average export of 343,776 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.8%. The corn export value reached 1.53 billion US dollars, and the average export price was 202.4 US dollars/ton, a 4.0% increase from the same period last year [2][4] - US: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of old - crop soybeans in the US was 316 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 323 million bushels and 342 million bushels in the same period last year. As of the week ending October 2, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 768,000 tons. As of the week ending October 3, 2024, it was 1.626 million tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 3.031 million tons, compared to 3.555 million tons in the same period of the previous year [2] Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: Due to the lack of a Sino - US trade consensus, there are concerns about China's soybean supply in Q1 2026. Argentina's policy may intensify competition and lead to price drops. Currently, the domestic supply is sufficient, and oil - mill operating rates are high, pressuring prices down in September. Future policy changes need attention [3] - Corn: The cooler weather is good for storage. New - grain listing and acquisition need attention. Supply in North and South China is tight now, but prices may decline seasonally as new - grain supply increases [5] Strategies - For both soybean meal and corn, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3][4][5][6]

Group 1: Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices are rising [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have significantly declined [2] - Non - ferrous: Copper prices are rising [2] Midstream - Chemical: PX operating rate has declined, while urea operating rate is rising; PX operating rate was at a high level [2] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly recovered [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights is at a three - year high due to holidays [2] Group 2: Industry Events Production Industry - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued 4 announcements to implement export controls on items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - On October 9, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027, adjusting the technical requirements for pure - electric passenger cars and plug - in (including extended - range) hybrid passenger cars [1] Service Industry - China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October this year [1] Group 3: Key Data - On October 9, the spot price of corn was 2237.1 yuan/ton, down 2.12% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.3 yuan/kg, down 12.93%; the spot price of palm oil was 9598.0 yuan/ton, up 4.03%; the spot price of cotton was 14764.2 yuan/ton, down 0.84%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, down 3.47%; the spot price of copper was 85823.3 yuan/ton, up 7.20%; the spot price of zinc was 22140.0 yuan/ton, up 1.45% [33] - For non - ferrous metals, on October 9, the spot price of aluminum was 20970.0 yuan/ton, up 1.34%; the spot price of nickel was 124000.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; another spot price of aluminum was 16868.8 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the spot price of rebar was 3174.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [33] - For other metals, on October 9, the spot price of iron ore was 792.2 yuan/ton, down 1.94%; the spot price of wire rod was 3357.5 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the spot price of glass was 15.6 yuan/square meter, up 3.45% [33] - For non - metals, on October 9, the spot price of natural rubber was 14758.3 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the China Plastic City price index was 788.5, down 0.21% [33] - For energy, on October 9, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, down 1.42%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 66.3 dollars/barrel, down 1.25%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3762.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39%; the coal price was 791.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [33] - For chemicals, on October 9, the spot price of PTA was 4564.5 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the spot price of polyethylene was 7348.3 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the spot price of urea was 1583.8 yuan/ton, down 4.31%; the spot price of soda ash was 1262.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national cement price index was 135.4, up 0.44% [33] - For real estate, on October 9, the building materials composite index was 113.0 points, down 1.22%; the national concrete price index was 91.7 points, down 0.02% [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The gap between strong expectations and weak reality in the domestic market has widened. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, with characteristics such as "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption." Meanwhile, external tariff pressure has increased, and the domestic government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies [1]. - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown. The shutdown has affected economic data releases, and there are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts [2]. - In the commodity market, focus on sectors such as gold and non - ferrous metals. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, while the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic pressure increased marginally in August, with weakening economic data and rising external tariff pressure. The government has introduced pro - growth policies, such as the central bank's call for strengthened monetary policy regulation and the planned use of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments [1]. - On October 9, the A - share market had a good start, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3,900 - point mark for the first time in a decade. The non - ferrous metal sector rose, and the semiconductor industry chain was active. The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated downward, and the pharmaceutical and biological sectors adjusted. Treasury bonds rebounded, and commodities such as gold and copper rose [1]. - The US government shutdown entered its second week on October 8, affecting economic data releases. There are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts. US economic data showed mixed performance, with the manufacturing and service PMIs slightly declining in September, while retail sales and new home sales performed well [2]. Commodity Market - The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The non - ferrous sector is still facing long - term supply constraints and is recently boosted by global easing expectations [3]. - OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has come into effect [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term, but still need signals from the fundamentals [3]. - Due to the US government shutdown and continuous central bank purchases, gold is expected to continue to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the game at key points [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Key News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced export controls on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items, which will take effect on November 8, 2025 [5]. - On October 9, the People's Bank of China conducted 1.1 trillion yuan in fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tendered, multiple - price - winning买断式 reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.73%. More than 3,100 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 2.67 trillion yuan [5]. - Most Fed officials said that continued easing this year may be appropriate, and they emphasized the upside risks to inflation. Employment faces relatively high downside risks [5]. - The US dollar against the Japanese yen rose to 153, up 0.2% on the day, for the first time since February [2][5]. - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza officially came into effect at noon on October 9 [3][5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 沪伦除汇比持续走弱，海外宏观成行情主导因素 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20960元/吨，较上一交易日变化240元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-40元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价20960元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-50元/吨至-40元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录20890元/吨，较上一交易日变化240元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-105元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-10-09日沪铝主力合约开于20900元/吨，收于21090元/吨，较上一交易日变化335元/吨，最 高价达21095元/吨，最低价达到20830元/吨。全天交易日成交159723手，全天交易日持仓203280手。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-10-09氧化铝主力合约开于2886元/吨，收于2875元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-8元/ 吨，变化幅度-0.28%，最高价达到2904元/吨，最低价为2848元/吨。全天交易日成交187736手，全天交易日持 仓294498手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-10-09保太民用生铝采购价格166 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the trading data of various index options on October 9, 2025, including trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), to reflect the market conditions of the index option market. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On October 9, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 819,500 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 956,500 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,214,100 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 46,800 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,961,900 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 103,600 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 117,100 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 300,500 contracts [1]. - The detailed one - day trading volume data of index ETF options are as follows: the total trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1,665,600 contracts (896,100 call contracts and 769,500 put contracts); the total trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,612,400 contracts (815,300 call contracts and 797,100 put contracts); the total trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,767,100 contracts (848,500 call contracts and 918,600 put contracts); the total trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 103,600 contracts (68,000 call contracts and 35,700 put contracts); the total trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,961,900 contracts (988,600 call contracts and 973,300 put contracts); the total trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 103,600 contracts (22,600 call contracts and 34,200 put contracts); the total trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 1,900,000 contracts (118,300 call contracts and 71,700 put contracts); the total trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 300,500 contracts (156,400 call contracts and 144,100 put contracts) [21]. II. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.41, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04; the position PCR was reported at 0.86, with a month - on - month change of + 0.06. Similar data for other options are also provided, such as the turnover PCR of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 0.38, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04; the position PCR was 1.18, with a month - on - month change of + 0.10, etc. [2]. - The detailed one - day PCR data of index ETF options are presented in the table, including turnover PCR and its month - on - month change, and position PCR and its month - on - month change for each type of option [36]. III. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 17.76%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.55%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 17.94%, with a month - on - month change of - 1.08%; and so on for other options [3]. - The detailed one - day VIX data of index ETF options are shown in the table, including the VIX value and its month - on - month change for each type of option [52].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - For soybeans, the futures price of the bean one 2511 contract closed at 3975.00 yuan/ton yesterday, up 48.00 yuan/ton (+1.22%) from the previous day. The spot basis of edible beans is A11+245, down 48 (-32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast new grain is increasing during the National Day. Protein content is low due to weather, but overall production is expected to be less affected, with a yield of 350 - 400 jin/mu. Downstream demand is average, and grain traders are cautious in purchasing. The overall supply in the Northeast soybean producing area is loose, with high - quality beans having better prices, but the demand side has not improved, and soybean prices still face long - term pressure [1][2] - For peanuts, the futures price of the peanut 2511 contract closed at 7704.00 yuan/ton yesterday, down 60.00 yuan/ton (-0.77%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts is 8380.00 yuan/ton, down 120.00 yuan/ton (-1.41%) month - on - month. The spot basis is PK11+696.00, up 60.00 (+9.43%) month - on - month. After the festival, the demand from oil mills has weakened, and the supply varies greatly in different regions. The listing pace in the Northeast is accelerating, while that in the North China region is slower due to rainy weather, resulting in large regional price differences [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the bean one 2511 contract was 3975.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +48.00 yuan/ton (+1.22%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A11+245, with a change of -48 (-32.14%) from the previous day. In the Northeast, new grain is increasing, and there are different prices for different protein contents. The downstream demand is average, and high - quality resources are popular [1][2] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract was 7704.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -60.00 yuan/ton (-0.77%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8380.00 yuan/ton, down 120.00 yuan/ton (-1.41%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK11+696.00, up 60.00 (+9.43%) month - on - month. There are price differences in different regions, and oil mills are cautious in purchasing [3] Group 4: Market Information Summary Soybeans - In the Northeast, during the National Day, new grain is gradually increasing. The purchase price of 40 - protein rough grain is 1.9 yuan/jin, 41 - protein is 1.95 yuan/jin, and low - protein is 1.8 - 1.85 yuan/jin. The downstream demand is average, and high - quality resources are popular [2] - The spot prices of different regions in Heilongjiang are stable, such as 2.11 yuan/jin in Harbin, 2.10 yuan/jin in Shuangyashan, etc. [2] Peanuts - The national average price of peanut general rice is 4.19 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from before the festival. There are price differences in different regions and varieties, and oil mills are cautious in purchasing [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has an impact on the shipping market. Hamas' statement about a cease - fire agreement in Gaza war and potential prisoner exchanges affects market sentiment. The 10 - month contract's valuation is becoming clearer, with uncertainty in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the actual implementation of price increases in November, and the overall strategy is to go short on the 10 - month contract and expect the 12 - month contract to be oscillating strongly [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price trends and price increase announcements. For example, HPL and Maersk have issued price increase letters, and the prices of various routes from Shanghai to Rotterdam have shown an upward trend to varying degrees [1][2]. - **Geopolitical End**: Hamas said it had reached an agreement to end the Gaza war, ensure Israel's withdrawal, and exchange hostages and prisoners [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The weekly average container ship capacity from China to European base ports varies by month. In October, the remaining three - week average capacity is 291,100 TEU, in November it is 304,000 TEU, and in December it is 292,500 TEU. There are also empty sailings and TBNs in November and December [3]. 2. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The valuation of the October contract is gradually clear. The current freight rate center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. If the price increases by $500/FEU in the last week, the final delivery settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately $1400/1500/1900/FEU, equivalent to about 1150 - 1200 points on the SCFIS; if the price increase fails, the final delivery settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4]. - **December Contract**: The price increase letter for the November contract is expected to be launched soon. The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, mainly the actual implementation of price increases in November. The shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The current weak demand in the US line may affect the European line if ships are transferred. The trading rhythm of the 12 - month contract is to first trade the price increase expectation, then the actual implementation, and repeat this process until delivery [5]. 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Go short on the 10 - month contract and expect the 12 - month contract to be oscillating strongly. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [8]. 4. Data Information - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of October 9, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 67,360 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 78,064 lots. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on September 26 is $971/TEU, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on October 6 is 1046.50 points [7]. - **Container Ship Capacity**: As of October 6, 2025, 206 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.6494 million TEU. Among them, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 964,000 TEU; 9 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 194,840 TEU [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon remains stable, and the inventory has increased on a weekly basis. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure and weak price transmission downstream. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,650 yuan/ton and closed at 8,640 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous settlement. The main contract held 176,563 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,774, a decrease of 209 from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon and 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in other regions were slightly stable [1]. - As of October 9, the total social inventory of industrial silicon was 545,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from before the National Day. The ordinary social warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 120,000 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 425,000 tons [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was stable at 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC monomer production enterprises' operating rate was about 71%, and most enterprises had pre - sold orders. The stable raw material cost provided strong cost support, and the monomer factories were willing to hold prices [2]. Strategy - In the short term, conduct range operations. For the dry - season contracts, consider going long at low prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 fluctuated widely, opening at 51,280 yuan/ton and closing at 50,765 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 84,987 lots (87,359 the previous day), and the trading volume was 201,311 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.10 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 24.00 (a 6.19% increase), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.78GW (a 3.39% increase). The weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons (-0.10% change), and the silicon wafer output was 12.83GW (-6.89% change) [4][5]. - The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers remained unchanged. The prices of battery cells and components also remained stable [5][6]. - During the National Day, the polysilicon market transactions were light, and there was obvious resistance to high - priced resources. The polysilicon output in October exceeded expectations and was expected to increase by 3,000 - 5,000 tons month - on - month [5]. Strategy - In the short term, conduct range operations, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is suitable to go long at low prices [7].