Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased, and the market risk appetite has risen. The domestic economic foundation still needs to be consolidated, and policies are being implemented to promote consumption. Different sectors in the commodity market have different trends, and attention should be paid to potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The full - text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on October 28, aiming to significantly increase economic and other strengths by 2035. The average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5%, boosting market sentiment. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and China officially postponed tariffs on November 5. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a 0.8 decline from the previous month. China's exports in October decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the growth rates of investment, consumption, and industry also slowed down. The State Council executive meeting on November 14 studied "two - major" construction and consumption - promotion policies. On November 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, the ChiNext Index rose more than 2%, and the large - consumption sector strengthened in the late session. Commodities showed mixed trends [2] Fed and US Economy - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has jumped from less than 30% on November 20 to over 70%. Some Fed officials support a December rate cut. In the US, the PPI in September increased by 0.3% month - on - month, the core PPI growth was lower than expected. The US S&P Global Composite PMI in November reached 54.8, the highest in four months. The non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, but the unemployment rate rose and wage growth declined. Data releases for October are affected, and the next Fed chair candidate may influence monetary policy. Japan has a "stock - bond - exchange" triple - kill, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in November fell below the boom - bust line [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, during the inflation expectation game stage, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is still dragged by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations, the energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector and the procurement plan of Chinese agricultural products from the US are worthy of attention. After the short - term adjustment of precious metals, there are opportunities for bargain - hunting [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Important News - Six departments issued a plan to enhance consumer goods supply - demand adaptability and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure by 2027 and form a high - quality development pattern by 2030. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly on November 26, the ChiNext Index rose more than 2%, and the large - consumption sector strengthened. Ukraine's President Zelensky may meet with US President Trump to reach a peace agreement. Kevin Hassett is considered a leading candidate for the next Fed chair. The yields of US 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds changed, and the UK OBR adjusted its economic and fiscal outlook, with traders increasing bets on the Bank of England's interest rate cut [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut industries is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Report Core Views - The rigid demand for high - protein soybeans is stable in the long - term, and the short - term supply shortage has increased market attention. The price of soybeans is expected to remain stable in the short term. For peanuts, the high - price situation in the Northeast has a "no - sale" phenomenon, and the price of oil peanuts is suppressed [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the soybean 2601 contract was 4094.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 14.00 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A01 + 6, a change of + 14 (32.14%) from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: Northeast new - season soybean prices are stable, farmers have limited remaining grain and a strong reluctance to sell, but the trading activity is not high. The prices of high - protein soybeans are stable. Traders are actively purchasing high - protein soybeans with a protein content of over 40% [1][2] Peanut Market - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract was 8176.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 234.00 yuan/ton (+ 2.95%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8240.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 + - 1176.00, a change of - 234.00 (+ 24.84%) from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: The average price of national peanut in - shell rice increased. In the Northeast, farmers' reluctance to sell has driven up prices, but demanders are cautious about high prices. Oil mills have gradually lowered the purchase price of oil peanuts [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Iran's methanol plant shutdowns are increasing, and winter maintenance is being implemented as expected. Attention should be paid to the duration of the maintenance and the progress of subsequent shipments. - The port inventory has started to decline significantly as the window for the port to flow back to the inland has opened, alleviating the port inventory pressure. - The coal - based methanol production in the inland region remains at a relatively high level, and the inventory of inland factories has increased again. The MTO units are in a state of maintenance or low - load operation, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The traditional downstream industries have different operating conditions, with acetic acid operating at a low level, formaldehyde at a low - load in the off - season, and only MTBE at a relatively high operating rate. - The recommended strategy is to cautiously buy and hedge MA2605 on dips, widen the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 on dips, and there is no strategy for cross - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions and the main futures contract (e.g., methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][23]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import spread of methanol in Taicang, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [27][28][29]. III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report includes the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol in China (including integrated units) [36][37][39]. IV. Regional Price Differences - It presents the price differences between regions, such as the price differences between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc. [41][51][53]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - The figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [52][62].

流动性日报 | 2025-11-27 市场流动性概况 2025-11-26，股指板块成交5627.78亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.51%；持仓金额12752.85亿元，较上一交易日变动 -2.23%；成交持仓比为43.66%。 国债板块成交5332.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.54%；持仓金额8118.85亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.32%；成交持 仓比为65.94%。 基本金属板块成交4705.19亿元，较上一交易日变动+20.27%；持仓金额5900.43亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.55%； 成交持仓比为91.46%。 贵金属板块成交8017.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+11.85%；持仓金额4457.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.68%；成 交持仓比为240.92%。 能源化工板块成交4538.42亿元，较上一交易日变动+22.72%；持仓金额4548.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.49%； 成交持仓比为87.15%。 农产品板块成交3425.97亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.90%；持仓金额6083.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.66%；成交 持仓比为52.82%。 黑色建材板块成交241 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Weak Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Weak Bias [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: Sideways [7] 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for steel has declined, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly alleviated. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the inventory pressure has been well - relieved under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has significantly narrowed. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory still suppresses plate prices [1]. - The spot supply - demand of iron ore is tight, and ore prices are oscillating upwards. This week, iron ore shipments have slightly declined, port inventories have continued to rise, and the daily average pig iron output has slightly decreased month - on - month. Steel mill profits have continued to decline and triggered production cuts. High supply has not yet been transmitted to ore prices [2]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is becoming more relaxed, and prices are oscillating. The coking coal market has weakened, driving down the sentiment in the coke market. The supply of coking coal has slowly recovered, and its trading has been significantly pressured [3][4]. - The procurement of thermal coal for essential needs is maintained, and coal prices are oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coils closed at 3304 yuan/ton. The spot trading of steel was average yesterday, weaker than the day before [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has narrowed. The supply and demand of plates are strong, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to production cuts and profit changes [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated upwards yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The cumulative turnover of iron ore at major national ports was 1.033 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.95%. The cumulative turnover of forward - looking spot was 1.542 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.55% [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, iron ore shipments slightly declined, port inventories continued to rise, the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, and steel mill profits declined and triggered production cuts. High supply has not yet affected ore prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent iron ore negotiations [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a weak bias for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated yesterday. The coking coal market has weakened, driving down the coke market sentiment. The supply of coking coal has slowly recovered, and its trading has been pressured. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coking coal has slightly increased, and supply - demand contradictions are gradually accumulating. The cost support for coke has weakened, and the market sentiment is weak. Attention should be paid to coking profits and cost changes [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a weak bias for coking coal; sideways for coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are oscillating strongly. The shipments of large stations and power plants are stable, and some coal mines have smooth sales. The supply is gradually tightening, supporting coal prices. At ports, the market sentiment is weak, and downstream procurement demand is cold. The inventory at northern ports has rapidly accumulated, and the pressure on traders to sell has increased. The import coal bidding price has decreased, and the market expectation for January is not good [6]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, there has been more wait - and - see sentiment, and coal prices are oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead ore remains tight, and processing fees are at a low level. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead smelters are both low, with limited supply pressure. On the consumption side, it remains stable, and there are no strong signals of recovery. Due to possible large - order impacts, the lead price dropped significantly during trading, and it is recommended to short on rallies for now [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 26, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.57 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts in different regions also remained unchanged. The lead scrap price differentials and waste battery prices also showed no change [1] Futures Market - On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,065 yuan per ton and closed at 17,065 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,187 lots, down 309 lots from the previous day. The open interest was 49,033 lots, down 3,433 lots. During the night session, the contract closed at 16,845 yuan per ton, down 1.32% from the afternoon close. The lead price in Henan, Hunan, and Yunnan regions showed different pricing strategies, and downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement with a strong wait - and - see attitude and light trading volume [2] Inventory - On November 26, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, down 70 tons from the previous week. As of November 27, the LME lead inventory was 264,975 tons, up 400 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead market presents a situation of weak supply and demand. It is advisable to short on rallies for the lead price for the time being [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. However, as the current price is at a 5 - year low, the downside space is limited [1][2] - For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in low - level oscillations. After the macro - level positive factors fade, there is a risk of price weakening. Similar to nickel, the current price is at a 5 - year low, so the downside space is limited [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,500 yuan/ton and closed at 117,260 yuan/ton, a 0.97% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 176,566 (+60,128) lots, and the open interest was 128,268 (-12,947) lots. The price continued to rebound due to multiple macro - level positive factors, including the Fed's dovish signal, progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the domestic central bank's continuous net injection [1] - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mostly in a wait - and - see state, with prices remaining stable. Philippine mines are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream nickel - iron prices are weak, squeezing iron - mill profits, so they are cautious about purchasing nickel ore. Some iron mills are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium is mainly at +26, with a range of +25 - 26. Overall, domestic trade prices of nickel ore will decline [1] - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,100 yuan/ton, a 1,300 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the continuous rise in futures prices, the overall trading of refined nickel is average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands are stable or declining. Jinchuan nickel's premium changes by 200 yuan/ton to 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changes by - 100 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,944 (294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,520 (1038) tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,410 yuan/ton and closed at 12,455 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,599 (+1,313) lots, and the open interest was 131,410 (-4,171) lots. The price rebounded by 0.65% and closed above the 5 - day moving average but below the 20 - day moving average, with a weak medium - term trend. The recent rebound is driven by nickel prices and improved macro - level liquidity expectations, but the fundamental situation of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and high inventory and cost collapse are still the main factors suppressing prices [2][3] - **Spot**: Affected by the continuous rebound of futures prices, spot trading has significantly improved today, and the quotes have slightly increased. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,650 (+25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 884.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern may improve during the dry season but still shows a cumulative inventory pattern. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand both weaken, with high inventory pressure and general consumption performance. The futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and are expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On November 26, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,960 yuan/ton and closed at 9,020 yuan/ton, a change of 0.28% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 260,529 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,425 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The Lanzhou Dongjin Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. organic silicon integration project (change) has its total land area changed to 1,667.45 mu. The first - phase product is changed to 400,000 tons/year of industrial silicon blocks, and the second - phase will build a production line for 400,000 tons/year of organic silicon monomers and supporting downstream products [2] - The organic silicon DMC market is stable, with a current mainstream quotation of 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, and downstream enterprises actively follow up, with increased market confidence. It is expected to run steadily and strongly in the short term [2] Polysilicon - On November 26, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side fluctuation, opening at 54,730 yuan/ton and closing at 55,895 yuan/ton, a 2.93% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 143,043 lots, and the trading volume was 330,316 lots [4] - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory at 271,000 tons (a 1.50% change) and silicon wafer inventory at 18.72 GW (a 1.63% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,100 tons (a 1.11% change), and the silicon wafer production was 12.78 GW (a - 2.59% change) [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were provided, with some prices remaining stable and some having slight changes [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price is stable. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and contracts during the dry season can be bought at low prices [3] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [6]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-27 下游供应宽松，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3015元/吨，较前日变动+2元/吨，幅度+0.07%；菜粕2601合约2439元/吨，较前 日变动+8元/吨，幅度+0.33%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+45， 较前日变动+8；江苏地区豆粕现货2980元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-35，较前日变动-2；广东地区豆 粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-45，较前日变动-2。福建地区菜粕现货价格2620元/ 吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM01+181，较前日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周二公布的出口销售报告显示，10月9日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增 78.50万吨，较之前一周减少15%，较前四周均值减少9%，市场此前预估为净增50.0万吨至净增140.0万吨。11月25 日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，巴西11月大豆出口量料触及440万吨，上周预测为471万吨。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about future aluminium consumption, believing that the long - term interest - rate cut cycle remains unchanged. The price decline caused by the current macro - sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity. Attention should be paid to whether the expected decline in social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, but its current valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminium Market Data - **Spot Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminium was 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminium was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Similar price and premium/discount changes were also seen in Central China and Foshan [1]. - **Futures Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai aluminium contract was 21,465 yuan/ton, the closing price was 21,455 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 172,888 lots, and the open interest was 259,056 lots [2]. - **Aluminium Inventory**: As of November 26, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 66,985 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 541,725 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Market Data - **Spot Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,835 yuan/ton, 2,770 yuan/ton, 2,860 yuan/ton, 2,910 yuan/ton, and 2,935 yuan/ton respectively, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main alumina contract was 2,722 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 0.37%. The trading volume was 190,375 lots, and the open interest was 377,215 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Market Data - **Aluminium Alloy Price**: On November 26, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminium was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminium was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, also with no change from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminium Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. - **Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminium**: The 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminium project of Indonesia's Lygend has been completed and put into production, but it is expected to reach full production in October 2026. The power supply in Indonesia may still affect production. The expectation of an interest - rate cut in the US in December has strengthened again, and the aluminium price has rebounded. The trading enthusiasm in the spot market has declined slightly, and the spot discount has widened again. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory - reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The low inventory level has little negative impact on prices [6]. - **Alumina**: There are few transactions in the spot market, and electrolytic aluminium plants have sufficient raw material reserves. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines face short - term environmental protection pressure, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, weakening the sentiment towards prices. The price has fallen below the marginal maximum cash cost, but cost support needs to be tested. The social inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. However, the current alumina valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [7][8].