FICC周报 | 2025-06-22 伊以事件扰动持续，关注后续进展 市场分析 国内5月经济仍待夯实。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累 财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需 求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，6月20日新华社发布后续以旧换新国补将继续下达。面 对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码的可能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议 在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解 决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于7月9日到期的关税延后政策，6月12日特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间 表存在灵活性。欧盟也表示预计延期谈判。 美联储按兵不动，维持联邦基金利率目标区间4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。决议声明略掉关于失业率和通 胀风险更高的措辞，今年利率预测中位值不变、仍预计两次25基点降息，但利率点阵图显示，预计不降息者较上 次增三人至七人。鲍威尔称，预计未来数月通胀压力将因关税显著上升， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom [1][2][4]. - For polysilicon, recent spot transactions are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking [4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, downstream demand was mainly for essential needs, spot market transactions were average, and the futures market oscillated within a range. The spot price stabilized. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 441 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract 2509 on the previous Friday was 7390 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase from the last trading day of the previous week. The total open interest of industrial silicon futures was about 577,000 lots [1]. - **Supply**: This week, industrial silicon supply continued to increase. The number of open furnaces in Xinjiang increased significantly, decreased in the Northeast, and remained stable in the Southwest. The total number of open furnaces increased by 5. The weekly output of sample manufacturers reached 36,600 tons, a 1655 - ton increase from the previous week. It is expected that the output in June will increase to about 350,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Overall market demand remained weak this week. The polysilicon production increased slightly to 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. The overall operating rate of the organic silicon industry remained at 70.29%, with little change, and the weekly DMC output was 49,000 tons, a slight increase of 1400 tons. The aluminum alloy industry's demand for industrial silicon was mainly based on needs, and the order volume decreased slightly. In May 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,700 tons, an 8% decrease month - on - month and a 22% decrease year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 272,400 tons, a 10% decrease year - on - year [2]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the statistical inventory of the silicon metal industry was 784,500 tons (including registered warehouse receipts), showing a slight decrease. The port inventory was 131,000 tons, the delivery inventory was 428,000 tons, and the factory inventory of sample enterprises was 225,500 tons. As of May 20, there were 54,623 registered warehouse receipts, equivalent to 273,115 tons of physical goods. The total supply - demand inventory may still increase, but the statistical inventory decreased slightly due to changes in the inventory structure [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: Electricity prices in some northwestern regions and the southwestern flood season decreased, and the prices of silica and silicon coal on the raw material side were unstable. The overall cost support was weak. Although the cost decreased due to the reduction in raw materials and southwestern electricity prices, most enterprises still faced significant cost pressure and were in a loss - making state, except for self - supplied power production enterprises [3]. Strategy - Overall, the supply side of industrial silicon has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom. It is recommended to focus on whether there are policy impacts at the price bottom. If the price rebounds, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises can sell - hedge at high prices [4]. Polysilicon Spot Market - **Price**: According to SMM statistics, this week, the price index of N - type polysilicon was 34 yuan/kg. The price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 33 - 36 yuan/kg, the mainstream price of mixed feedstock dropped to about 33 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type granular silicon was 31.5 yuan/kg. The price of polysilicon continued to decline. The main contract 2507 of polysilicon dropped significantly during the week, and the closing price on Friday was 31,700 yuan/ton, a 5.92% decrease from the previous week. The total open interest was 181,500 lots [4]. - **Supply**: Currently, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads. After the resumption of production in some bases, the weekly output increased. This week, the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. In June, some southwestern bases resumed production, leading to an increase in supply. However, there may be some production cuts in the northwest in the future, and the total supply in July may not change much. Currently, the price is low, and manufacturers face significant cost pressure, so the supply is uncertain [4][5]. - **Demand**: This week, the silicon wafer output was 12.9 GW, a 1.50% decrease week - on - week. The price of N - type 18X silicon wafers was 0.88 - 0.92 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210RN silicon wafers was 1.07 - 1.3 yuan/piece. The price continued to decline, and the prices of second - and third - tier small factories were lowered. The market sentiment was still weak. The silicon wafer production plan in June did not change significantly, and some first - tier enterprises intended to cut production, but the amplitude was limited. The terminal demand was weak [5]. - **Inventory**: According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory also decreased slightly. The latest polysilicon inventory was 262,000 tons, a 4.7% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.74 GW, a 3.1% decrease month - on - month. This week, the warehouse receipts changed little, with a total of 2600 lots, equivalent to 7800 tons. After the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game weakened [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon changed little. The estimated tax - free cash cost of granular silicon could be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton. The tax - free cash cost of rod - shaped silicon varied among enterprises, ranging from 30,000 to 45,000 yuan/ton, and the cash cost at the supply - demand balance point was about 32,000 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Overall, recent spot transactions of polysilicon are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of joint production cuts and policy disturbances. The strategy is range - bound operation, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For caustic soda: Cautious short - selling hedging [3] - For PVC: Neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong has been continuously decreasing, and the market remains weak. Although the plant - level inventory has decreased, it is still at a high level. The futures are deeply in contango, and the spot price is falling. In the short term, it follows the basis repair logic, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profit in the later stage [1][2][3]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC has increased due to the rise in the price of upstream raw material ethylene driven by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. However, the supply - demand fundamentals have not significantly improved. The supply pressure is large, and the domestic demand is weak. Although the export is increasing in the short term, there are uncertainties in the Indian import anti - dumping policy [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Caustic Soda Price & Spread - As of June 20, 2025, the SH main contract closing price of caustic soda futures was 2,256 yuan/ton (-32), the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 275 yuan/ton (-31). The spot price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton (-20), and that of 50% liquid caustic soda was 1,330 yuan/ton (-50) [1]. II. PVC Price & Spread - As of June 20, 2025, the main contract closing price of PVC futures was 4,903 yuan/ton (+3), the East China basis was - 113 yuan/ton (+17), and the South China basis was - 23 yuan/ton (+27). The spot price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 4,790 yuan/ton (+20), in South China was 4,880 yuan/ton (+30). The spot price of ethylene - based PVC in East China was 5,000 yuan/ton (+50), and in South China was 4,920 yuan/ton (+0) [5]. III. Cost - Profit - **Caustic Soda**: As of June 20, 2025, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 837.83 yuan/ton (-62.50), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 205.03 yuan/ton (-62.50), the single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,540.15 yuan/ton (-62.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **PVC**: As of June 20, 2025, the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 493.98 yuan/ton (+17.77), the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was - 640.42 yuan/ton (-79.88), and the export profit of PVC was - 10 US dollars/ton (-1) [5]. IV. Caustic Soda Supply - The caustic soda operating rate was 81.20% (+0.30%), and the weekly output was 79.28 tons (+0.23). Recently, there are both plant overhauls and restarts in Shandong, and the overall operating rate has increased slightly month - on - month. In the later stage, there are plans to put into production new capacities in Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase [1][2]. V. Liquid Chlorine Price and Liquid Chlorine Downstream - As of June 20, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 1 yuan/ton (+0). The operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and dichloromethane have increased, and the weekly output of chloroform has also increased [2]. VI. PVC Supply - The upstream calcium carbide average operating load was 63.10% (+1.51%), the PVC operating rate was 78.62% (-0.63%), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 80.43% (-1.34%), and the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 73.81% (+1.22). The loss due to shutdown and overhaul was 12.57 tons (+0.37). Although the overall operating rate has decreased month - on - month, the output is still at a high level, and there are plans to put into production new capacities from June to July, so the supply pressure is still large [5][6]. VII. Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The operating rate of the main downstream product, alumina, was 80.74% (-0.13%), the weekly output was 171.50 tons (-0.30), and the port inventory was 6.80 tons (+1.80). The operating rates of non - aluminum downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, white cardboard, and broad - leaf pulp have shown different degrees of decline or increase [1]. VIII. PVC Downstream Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream was 44.31% (-1.49%), among which the operating rates of PVC pipes, profiles, and films have all decreased. The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.79 tons (+0.96). The domestic demand is weak, but the export orders have increased month - on - month, and the Indian BIS standard policy has been postponed, which supports the short - term export demand [5][6]. IX. Caustic Soda & PVC Inventory Data - **Caustic Soda**: The domestic liquid caustic soda plant - level inventory was 36.65 tons (-3.88), and the flake caustic soda plant - level inventory was 2.85 tons (+0.00) [2]. - **PVC**: The PVC plant - level inventory was 40.16 tons (+0.51), and the social inventory was 35.51 tons (+0.03), including 31.23 tons in East China (+0.01) and 4.28 tons in South China (+0.02) [5].

FICC周报 | 2025-06-22 成交平稳，银行板块再度活跃 市场分析 金融举措推动开放。宏观方面，6月18日至19日，2025陆家嘴论坛在上海举行，央行、金融监管总局、证监会、外 汇局等部门发布多项金融举措，助力高水平开放。央行将推出8项政策举措支持上海国际金融中心建设，包括设立 数字人民币国际运营中心、"先行先试"结构性货币政策工具创新等；金融监管总局将支持外资机构参与更多金融 业务试点；证监会将在科创板设置科创成长层，同时推出6项更具包容性、适应性的改革措施；外汇局将在全国实 施支持科研机构吸引利用外资、扩大科技型企业跨境融资便利等政策。海外方面，美国与欧盟正接近达成一项涵 盖多领域的互惠贸易协议，包括数字监管、环境政策及产业合作等领域。协议草案拟为美国科技企业提供监管合 规宽限期，以配合欧盟《数字市场法》实施进程，同时深化在造船业、关键矿产等战略产业的协作机制。但因未 纳入关税条款，协议最终落地仍存变数。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数周度收跌，上证指数收盘跌0.51%收于3359.9点，创业板指跌1.66%。行业方面， 板块指数跌多涨少，仅银行、通信、电子行业收红，美容护理、纺织服饰、医药生 ...

农产品周报 | 2025-06-22 内外糖价止跌企稳，郑棉期价延续震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，截止周五收盘，棉花2509合约13495元/吨，环比上周持平。现货方面，新疆地区棉花现货价格14764 元/吨，环比下跌21元/吨。现货基差CF09+1269，环比下跌21。全国棉花现货加权均价14879元/吨，环比上涨 37元/吨，现货基差CF09+1384，环比上涨37。 国际方面，据USDA，截止6月12日当周，2024/25美陆地棉周度签约1.89万吨，周增38%，较四周平均水平降23%， 同比降56%；其中越南签约1.12万吨，土耳其签约0.36万吨，中国取消0.13万吨；2025/26年度美陆地棉周度签 约6.23万吨，同比增长146%，其中越南1.79万吨、萨尔瓦多1.64万吨、洪都拉斯1.04万吨；2024/25美陆地棉周 度装运4.64万吨，环比减13%，较四周平均水平降24%，同比增3%，其中越南装运1.12万吨，土耳其装运0.95万 吨。 国内方面，据海关统计数据，2025年5月我国棉花进口量4万吨，环比（6万吨）减少2万吨，减幅33.9%；同比（26 万吨）减少22万吨，减 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Directory 1. Option Trading Volume - On June 19, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.1514 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.1973 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.8946 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.0729 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1.1365 million contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 0.0346 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 0.1010 million contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 0.2726 million contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the previous day [19] 2. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 1.16, with a month - on - month change of +0.28; the open interest PCR was reported at 0.87, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03. Similar data for other options are also provided [2] - The table presents the turnover PCR, month - on - month change, open interest PCR, and month - on - month change of various index ETF options on the previous day [32] 3. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 14.36%, with a month - on - month change of +0.14%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 14.98%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.38%. Similar data for other options are also given [3] - The table shows the VIX and month - on - month change values of various index ETF options on the previous day [46]

Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing well, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demands from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price should be treated with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -31.32 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On June 19, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,925 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,967 lots, an increase of 1,410 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 33,907 lots, a decrease of 6,147 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,965 yuan/ton and the lowest point at 16,760 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On June 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of June 19, the LME lead inventory was 287,425 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Treat the lead price with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-20 生柴政策支撑，油脂偏强震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8538.00元/吨，环比变化+20元，幅度+0.23%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8152.00 元/吨，环比变化+68.00元，幅度+0.84%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9691.00元/吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.12%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8760.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.11%，现货基差P09+222.00，环比变 化-30.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8330.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元/吨，幅度+0.97%，现货基差Y09+178.00， 环比变化+12.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9870.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.30%，现货基差 OI09+179.00，环比变化-18.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美湾大豆(7月船期)C&F价格467美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；美西大豆(7月船期)C&F价 格462美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；巴西大豆(8月船期)C&F价格467美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The spot market remains weak, with downstream buyers still reluctant to buy at high prices and the spot premium showing a downward trend. The cost of domestic zinc ore is stable, and the import window for zinc ore is closed. The supply side has stable smelting profits and a long - term high - growth supply expectation. Consumption is unexpectedly strong, with an increase in the zinc alloy operating rate and only a slight increase in social zinc ingot inventory, possibly due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" effect. Short - term energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis should be watched out for [1][3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: LME zinc spot premium is -$30.04/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 210 yuan/ton to 21,990 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 220 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 210 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,945 yuan/ton, closed at 21,865 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 114,481 lots, a decrease of 9,214 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 87,639 lots, a decrease of 9,589 lots from the previous day. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,800 - 22,020 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the same period last week. The LME zinc inventory was 127,475 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Cost**: The TC of domestic zinc ore is stable, the import window for zinc ore is closed, domestic ore has an advantage over imported ore, and the TC of imported ore in the third quarter overseas is still rising [3] - **Supply**: Smelting profits remain stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged [3] - **Consumption**: Consumption is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy operating rate is increasing, and the slight increase in social zinc ingot inventory may be due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" effect. Short - term energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis should be watched out for [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [5] Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic long - term contract price is still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. Downstream refined copper rod enterprises report a continuous decline in orders, and there is significant uncertainty in future demand. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous downward pressure on the Fed's interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Market - On June 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,310 yuan/ton, a 0.70% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,160 yuan/ton and closed at 78,250 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Market - In the morning of the previous day, spot copper holders started to lower the premium. The mainstream flat - copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and the prices of some brands in Shanghai and Changzhou markets dropped to around a premium of 350 yuan/ton, then were pressed to a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton for transactions. The mainstream flat - copper was still quoted at a premium of 380 - 400 yuan/ton with tight supply. Good - quality copper was quoted at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton. In the second trading session, some sources were at a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low price stimulated downstream purchases, and the market's purchase and sales sentiment indices increased. Spot copper merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to lock in profits [2] Important Information - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4.25% with increasing internal divergence. Traders expect a 50 - basis - point rate cut this year. Geopolitically, Israel aims to eliminate Khamenei, while the White House says Trump has a "great" chance of negotiating with Iran and will decide on attacking Iran in two weeks. Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and called for a 250 - basis - point rate cut. Domestically, three departments held a video conference on new - energy vehicle safety management, emphasizing no "involution - style" competition [3] - **Mine End**: Troilus Gold reached an agreement with Germany's Aurubis AG for the concentrate purchase of its Quebec copper - gold project. The final agreement is expected to be signed simultaneously with the $7 - billion overall debt - financing plan announced in March 2025. The project was an old mine that produced nearly 70,000 tons of copper from 1996 - 2010. It is estimated to produce an average of 135.4 million pounds of copper equivalent per year over a 22 - year mine life [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The Kutch copper smelter in Gujarat with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons started processing ore this week after multiple delays due to raw - material shortages. It aims to reach full - capacity production as soon as possible, which may take 18 months, and a full - capacity operation would require about 1.6 million tons of copper concentrate supply per year [4] - **Consumption**: In May 2025, China's copper product output was 2.096 million tons, a slight increase from April and a multi - year high for the same period. From January to May, the output was 9.537 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase. In the off - season, the operating rates of copper tubes and rods declined, but cables performed well [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,025 tons to 103,325 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,198 tons to 44,816 tons. On June 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.459 million tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week [4] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5]