Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is oscillating weakly [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of steel remain weak, and steel prices are oscillating. The output of building materials continues to decline, the inventory accumulation rate is higher than in previous years, the downstream replenishment demand is significantly weakened, the demand shows no obvious improvement, and the peak - season demand is limited. The profit of plate mills does not strongly drive production cuts, and the inventory of plates has increased significantly during holidays. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the main contract 2601 of rebar closed at 3,103 yuan/ton, and the main contract 2601 of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,285 yuan/ton [1][4] Supply - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 2.4154 million tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from last week and an increase of 84,600 tons compared with last year. The actual output of the five major steel products this period was 8.6331 million tons, a decrease of 37,600 tons from the previous period. Among them, the rebar output was 2.034 million tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons from the previous period; the hot - rolled coil output was 3.2329 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period [1][21] Consumption - According to Mysteel data, the total apparent demand for the five major steel products this period was 7.3545 million tons, a decrease of 1.6937 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.4601 million tons, a decrease of 950,600 tons from the previous period; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 2.9009 million tons, a decrease of 336,400 tons from the previous period [1][24] Inventory - According to Mysteel data, the total inventory of the five major steel products this week reached 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons from the previous week. The rebar inventory this week was 6.5964 million tons, a weekly increase of 573,900 tons; the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.129 million tons, a weekly increase of 190,200 tons [1][29] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend. Pay attention to the inventory situation after the holiday and the support of raw material costs. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Cost - end**: This week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. After the National Day, China's import demand slowed down while US exports increased, and Middle - East exports also rose, leading to an oversupply situation. The re - fermentation of the China - US tariff war on Friday caused a sharp drop in crude oil prices [1]. - **PX**: China's PX operating rate was 87.4% (up 1.0% week - on - week), and Asia's was 79.9% (up 0.8% week - on - week). China's PX load has recovered to a relatively high level, and overseas restarts and capacity expansion have weakened the Q4 supply - demand outlook and support [1]. - **PTA**: China's PTA operating rate was 74.4% (down 2.4% week - on - week), and the spot processing fee was 199 yuan/ton. The increase in maintenance plans has narrowed the inventory accumulation in the near - term, but the new device commissioning in December may lead to high inventory pressure. Demand improvement needs to be observed [2]. - **PF**: The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber operating rate was 94.3% (down 1.1% week - on - week). After the holiday, the load decreased slightly. The short - term supply - demand situation is better than the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to remain high [3]. - **PR**: The bottle - chip factory operating rate (based on maximum capacity) was 72.4% (+0.4%), and the inventory was 16.8 days (up 2.1 days week - on - week). The processing fee rebounded to around 500 yuan. The short - term load change is limited, and the supply - demand pressure is large after the new device commissioning [4]. - **Strategy**: - **Single - side**: Consider short - hedging PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies. - **Cross - variety**: Go long on PF processing fees at low levels: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. - **Cross - period**: Reverse spread PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - The report presents various price and spread charts, including TA, PX, PF, and PR contract price trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as processing fees and other related data [8][10][11][12][16] PX and PTA Supply - China's PX load and Asia's PX load are shown, along with PTA load data from China, South Korea, and Taiwan, reflecting the supply situation of PX and PTA [46][47][52] Inventory - It includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and the inventory data of PTA and PX warehouse receipts, showing the inventory status of related products [55][60][63] Demand - Charts show the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the operating rates of various downstream industries such as weaving, texturing, and dyeing, reflecting the demand situation [65][69][71] PF Supply - Demand - Inventory - It presents the load of polyester staple fibers, factory inventory days, and the operating rates and profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, showing the supply - demand - inventory situation of PF [87][91][93] PR Supply - Demand - Inventory - It shows the load of polyester bottle - chips, factory inventory days, and processing fees and export profits, reflecting the supply - demand - inventory situation of PR [106][108][110]

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 矿端扰动减弱，短期消费支撑价格 市场分析 现货市场 价格方面：碳酸锂期货本周维持震荡运行，主力合约2511本周五收于 72740元/吨，本周跌幅为0.08%，持仓量为 221919吨。SMM电池级碳酸锂均价73,550元/吨；工业级碳酸锂均价71,300元/吨，现货价格基本持平。现货成交稍 有好转，但多数观望为主。截至本周五，所有合约总持仓 68.17万手。截至本周五，碳酸锂当日仓单 42379 手， 仓单数量较多。 供应端：据 SMM 统计，周度产量小幅增加，周度总产量 2.06 万吨，环比增加 119 吨，其中辉石产碳酸锂 13064 吨，环比增加 75吨，云母产碳酸锂2695 吨，环比减少145 吨，盐湖产碳酸锂 2904 吨，环比增加 141 吨，回收产 碳酸锂 1972吨，整体来看，供应端仍保持较高水平。 消费端：据百川数据，磷酸铁锂产量环比降低0.04%，三元材料环比增加0.48%。钴酸锂环比增加0.12%，锰酸锂环 比增长5.64%。下游排产维持增量预期。终端动储双增，下游需求维持高位，但节后下游散单采购需求较弱，多观 望市场走势，仅少数刚需采购， ...

大豆市场分析 农产品周报 | 2025-10-12 需求清淡，供给压力逐步凸显 风险 市场分析 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，本周豆一主力合约2601收盘价3948元/吨，环比上涨44元，涨幅1.13%。现货方面，巴彦地区食用豆 现货基差A01+267，较上周下跌26；宝清地区食用豆基差A01+247，较上周下跌26；富锦地区食用豆现货基差 A01+187，较上周下跌26；尚志地区食用豆现货基差A01+247，较上周下跌26。 据Mysteel调研显示，国庆期间东北各地新季大豆上市增量，今年大豆蛋白含量偏低，高蛋白货源稀少，优质优价， 企业陆续开始收购。到港预估：Mysteel 农产品根据发船数据对大豆月度到港预估，2025 年9 月巴西大豆对中国 到港859 万吨，阿根廷大豆对中国到港155 万吨，美国大豆对中国到港为0 万吨，共计1014 万吨。 无 本周国产价格震荡，国产大豆现货市场价格以稳为主，低蛋白价格表现弱稳，主因今年蛋白含量偏低，高蛋白货 源较为抢收，市场两极分化。目前南方部分地区因天气影响收割时间或将推迟10 天左右。总体来看，东北地区丰 产预期以及下游需求暂未见明显回暖，短期国产豆价承压运行 ...

油脂周报 | 2025-10-12 中美贸易摩擦再起，油脂行情或波动加大 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，本周收盘棕榈油2601合约9438元/吨，环比上涨210元，涨幅2.28%；本周收盘豆油2601合约8302元 /吨，环比上涨162元，涨幅1.99%；本周收盘菜油2601合约10161元/吨，环比上涨17元，涨幅0.17%。现货方面， 广东地区棕榈油现货价格9440元/吨，环比上涨360元，涨幅3.96%，现货基差P01+2，环比上涨150元；天津地 区一级豆油现货价格8520元/吨，环比上涨230元/吨，涨幅2.77%，现货基差Y01+218，环比上涨68元；江苏地 区四级菜油现货价格10330元/吨，环比上涨50元，涨幅0.49%，现货基差OI01+269，环比上涨33元。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，10月10日(周五)，MPOB报告显示，马来西亚9月棕榈油产量184.12万吨，环比减少0.74%。近两周 （9.26-10.9）国内新增 8 条买船，其中 1 条 10 月，5 条 11 月，2 条 12 月；无新增洗船。截至 10 月 9 日当周连盘棕榈开盘大幅补涨，期价跟随马棕走势， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Sino-US trade war has dragged down the entire chemical sector. For pure benzene, although the port inventory has decreased after the holiday and downstream提货 is okay, there are still doubts about the long - term procurement sustainability of some downstream products, and the concentrated maintenance of styrene in late October will drag down the demand. Overseas, the pressure of South Korean pure benzene being shipped to China has increased, and the driving force for continuous destocking is not strong. - For styrene, the port inventory has slightly accumulated again after the holiday, and the inventory pressure persists. The downstream提货 performance is still average. The supply side has some devices under maintenance, but there are also new device startups. Overseas demand is weak, and the import pressure from Europe and the US to China will increase. Styrene inventory pressure continues. - The strategy includes short - selling BZ and EB on rallies for hedging, and doing reverse spreads on the EB2511 - EB2512 spread on rallies [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and Styrene Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - period Spreads No specific data or analysis content provided other than the figure names, such as "Pure Benzene Main Futures Contract", "Pure Benzene East China Spot Price", etc. [10][11] 2. Styrene Supply - East China styrene arrival volume is 39,200 tons (+ 0.09), and the port提货 volume is 34,800 tons (+ 0.75). - Styrene plant operating rate is 73.61% (+ 2.37%), with East China at 68.07% (+ 2.72%), Shandong at 75.54% (+ 0.43%), and South China at 82.70% (+ 7.62%) [1]. 3. Styrene Downstream Demand - EPS operating rate is 40.74% (- 2.37%), PS operating rate is 54.60% (- 1.70%), ABS operating rate is 72.50% (+ 1.50%), UPR operating rate is 20.00% (- 8.00%), and butadiene - styrene rubber operating rate is 70.40% (+ 0.03%). - EPS sample enterprise inventory is 30,500 tons (- 800), PS sample enterprise inventory is 108,700 tons (+ 19,340), ABS sample enterprise inventory is 251,000 tons (+ 7,400), and butadiene - styrene rubber sample enterprise inventory is 20,500 tons (+ 0) [1]. 4. Styrene Inventory - Styrene East China port inventory is 201,900 tons (+ 4,400), and styrene plant inventory is 193,863 tons (- 9,411) [1]. 5. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - Pure benzene East China port inventory is 91,000 tons (- 15,000). - Pure benzene operating rate is 79.29% (+ 0.55%), and hydro - benzene operating rate is 63.24% (- 0.75%) [2]. 6. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - Non - styrene downstream: Caprolactam operating rate is 96.00% (+ 0.00%), phenol - acetone operating rate is 78.00% (- 1.00%), aniline operating rate is 77.16% (+ 1.12%), and adipic acid operating rate is 66.90% (+ 4.00%). - CPL industry chain: Caprolactam CPL operating rate is 96.00% (+ 0.00%), CPL plant inventory is 50,000 tons (+ 0.00); PA6 operating rate is 78.21% (+ 2.17%), PA6 conventional spinning plant inventory days is 7.00 days (+ 0.00 days); nylon filament operating rate is 78.00% (+ 0.00%), nylon filament plant inventory days is 34.50 days (+ 0.00 days). - Phenol - acetone industry chain: Phenol - acetone operating rate is 78.00% (- 1.00), Jiangyin phenol port inventory is 7,000 tons (+ 1,000), Jiangyin acetone port inventory is 30,500 tons (+ 7,500); bisphenol A operating rate is 74.67% (+ 1.22); PC operating rate is 80.92% (- 2.50), epoxy resin operating rate is 50.89% (+ 1.13). - Aniline industry chain: Aniline operating rate is 77.16% (+ 1.12); polymer MDI operating rate is 96.00% (+ 0.00), polymer MDI plant inventory is 72,000 tons (+ 0.00), pure MDI operating rate is 96.00% (+ 0.00), pure MDI plant inventory is 7,000 tons (+ 0.00). - Adipic acid industry chain: Adipic acid operating rate is 66.90% (+ 4.00); spandex operating rate is 77.50% (+ 0.00), spandex plant inventory days is 50.00 days (+ 0.00); PA66 operating rate is 60.45% (- 0.82); polyurethane elastomer operating rate is 53.50% (+ 1.21) [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - After the holiday, polyolefins experienced significant inventory accumulation, leading to price pressure and a weak trend. The decline in crude oil prices weakened the cost support for polyethylene, and the commissioning of new plants increased supply pressure, driving the downward trend of polyolefins. For PE, the supply is expected to increase significantly, while the downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is also weakening. For PP, it is affected by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, with a supply increase expected and weak demand, and the cost support is also weak [3]. - The recommended strategies are to cautiously short - hedge L, expect PP to fluctuate weakly; conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05; and short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 7037 yuan/ton (-40), and that of the PP main contract was 6722 yuan/ton (-23). The LL spot price in North China was 7000 yuan/ton (+0), in East China was 7100 yuan/ton (-10), and the PP spot price in East China was 6670 yuan/ton (-10). The LL basis in North China was -37 yuan/ton (+40), in East China was 73 yuan/ton (+10), and the PP basis in East China was -42 yuan/ton (-47) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate was 83.9% (+1.9%), and the PP operating rate was 77.7% (+1.1%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit was 542.8 yuan/ton (+157.6), the PP oil - based production profit was -127.2 yuan/ton (+157.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit was -99.0 yuan/ton (-270.1) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit was 10.8 yuan/ton (+52.2), the PP import profit was -547.8 yuan/ton (-73.5), and the PP export profit was 17.5 US dollars/ton (+9.1) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 35.6% (+2.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.9% (+0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.3% (+0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.7% (+0.5%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers accumulated significantly. The decline in crude oil weakened the cost support, and the commissioning of new plants increased supply pressure. The supply is expected to increase with the commissioning of a 500,000 - ton LDPE plant and the restart of previously shut - down plants, along with concentrated arrivals of imported resources. The downstream demand in October was less than expected, and the cost support was weakened due to the OPEC+ production increase [3]. - **PP**: After the holiday, the decline of PP was obvious, affected by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. The supply is expected to increase as multiple plants restarted, and the PDH plant profit recovered. The demand was less than expected during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the cost support was weak [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - hedge L; expect PP to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Inter - period**: Conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4]. - **Inter - commodity**: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

黑色建材周报 | 2025-10-12 铁水产量微降，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 本周铁矿石价格持涨运行，截止周五收盘，铁矿石主力2601合约收于795.0元/吨，周环比上涨14.5元/吨，涨幅1.86%。 Mysteel62%澳粉远期价格指数106.7美元/吨，周环比上涨3.35美元/吨，涨幅3.24%。青岛港PB粉价格788.0元/吨， 周环比上涨9.0元/吨，涨幅1.16%。 供应方面：Mysteel统计最新数据显示，本期全球铁矿石发运3279万吨，周环比减少196万吨，其中非主流发运显著 回落。本期45港铁矿石到港量为2609万吨，周环比增加248万吨。 需求方面：Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率84.27%，环比上周减少0.02个百分点，同比去年增加3.48个百分点 ； 日均铁水产量 241.54万吨，环比上周减少0.27万吨，同比去年增加8.46万吨。 库存方面：Mysteel统计，全国45港铁矿石库存总量14025万吨，环比增加12万吨；45港日均疏港量327万吨，环比 减少9万吨。 整体来看：供给方面，本周铁矿石发运高位回落，铁矿石到港量明显回升。需求方面，日均铁水产量均环比回落， 仍处于 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 short at high prices; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost support for propylene has weakened, leading to a decline in its price. Supply is supported by some PDH device maintenance and restart delays, while demand is weak due to price drops and cost pressure. The cost support is weakened by falling international oil prices and propane prices, but the impact of Sino - US trade frictions on propane supply needs attention [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Include figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong market prices [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include figures on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [16][23][25] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Include figures on the differences between FOB in South Korea, CFR in Japan, CFR in Southeast Asia and CFR in China, and propylene import profit [32][34] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Include figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - Include figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [65]

甲醇周报 | 2025-10-12 关注伊朗船货靠港影响 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 港口方面，中美贸易冲突加剧，涉伊船货被制裁风险，后续伊朗船货到江苏主流港口的靠港或受影响，港口短期 提振，关注后续进展。而现实基本面看，库存拐点仍未出现，伊朗开工仍偏高，冬检计划仍未公布，后续到港量 的边际变化主要关注涉伊船货影响程度与中美贸易冲突的进展。中国稀土出口管制后，特朗普扬言要大幅加征对 中国商品关税，中美贸易战升级对化工板块整体拖累，但由于涉伊船货受制裁风险影响，甲醇于化工板块内部跨 品种相对抗跌。 内地方面，煤头甲醇开工率再度回升，内地库存低位回升，对港口支撑有所减弱。传统下游方面，醋酸、MTBE、 甲醛开工均有不同程度回落。 策略 单边：无 跨期：MA2601-MA2605逢低做正套 港口供应方面：海外甲醇开工率73.34%（+0.00%）；中国进口甲醇周频到港量46.05万吨（+7.14），其中华东到港量 40.72万吨（+7.73），华南到港量5.33万吨（-0.59）。 内地供应方面：中国甲醇开工率89.53%（+4.50%），其中煤制甲醇开工率84.16%（+1.04%）、天然气甲醇开工率50.79 ...