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聚烯烃周报:地缘冲突提振,聚烯烃高位整理-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:43
聚烯烃周报 | 2025-06-22 地缘冲突提振,聚烯烃高位整理 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面,L主力合约收盘价为7415元/吨(-47),PP主力合约收盘价为7242元/吨(-32),LL华北现货为7480 元/吨(+30),LL华东现货为7450元/吨(-20),PP华东现货为7290元/吨(+10),LL华北基差为65元/吨(+77),LL 华东基差为35元/吨(+27), PP华东基差为48元/吨(+42)。 以色列伊朗地缘局势紧张,原油与丙烷价格大幅走高,聚烯烃成本端支撑增强明显。短停检修装置较多,未来预 计陆续开车,短期供应压力不大,镇海炼化4线50万吨/PP装置预计近期投产,未来供应有增加趋势。农膜开工季 节性淡季,需求端持续低迷,预计开工持稳,整体运行负荷处于低位。包装膜开工率同比偏低,塑编开工走低, 终端备货意愿偏低,刚需采购为主。生产企业库存小幅累积,中游贸易商环节库存走低,聚烯烃维持供需两弱格 局,宏观面不确定性较强。 策略 单边:中性。 跨期:无。 风险 宏观政治经济、原油价格波动、下游需求恢复情况 上游供应方面,PE开工率为78.7%(-0.5%),PP开工率为79.6%(+ ...
化工周报:关注地缘冲突演变对成本端的支撑-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:43
化工周报 | 2025-06-22 关注地缘冲突演变对成本端的支撑 核心观点 市场分析 成本端,本周油价受中东地缘升温影响大幅上涨,以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施,而后伊朗导弹 还击,近期关注地缘变化,如果伊以冲突对能源设施的破坏加剧,甚至对霍尔木兹海峡产生影响,则油价面临进 一步的上行风险。如果事态控制在一定程度内,各方寻求和谈,则地缘溢价可能会再度回落。 汽油和芳烃方面,近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤,在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限,今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待,国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足,限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面,3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降,近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复 情况,短流程利润修复下,PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 PX方面,本周中国 PX 开工率85.6%(环比上周-0.2%),亚洲 PX 开工率74.3%(环比上周-1.3%)。本周国内PX 负荷基本持稳,海外方面装置变动相对较多,中东地缘冲突导致伊朗、以色列PX装置停车,沙特Rabigh芳烃装置 重启延后, 海外PX开工下滑相对明显。月底 ...
国债期货周报:政策预期博弈下,国债期货震荡偏强-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:43
国债期货周报 | 2025-06-22 政策预期博弈下,国债期货震荡偏强 市场分析 宏观面:(1)宏观政策:5月7日国新办发布会上,央行宣布落实适度宽松政策,推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施,包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调,同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款,强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制,旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期,推动经济高质量发展;5月10日,中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈,为时两天;5月12日,中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》,声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施,对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ;5月20日,中国人民银行公布LPR下调:1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%,5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%,为近半年首次下调。同日,多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率,涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施,延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。6月20 ...
新能源及有色金属周报:锌锭库存微增,现货升水快速回落-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Report's Core View - Zinc alloy开工率下滑,隐性库存负反馈可能发生,锌锭社会库存小幅增长;TC整体稳定,海外锌矿发运量提升,供给压力不改;消费边际下滑,现货升水大幅回落,锌价上涨缺乏基本面驱动力,社会库存持续增加将形成较大向下压力 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - As of June 20, 2025, the LME zinc price increased by 0.57% to $2,625 per ton compared to last week, and the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.14% to 21,845 yuan per ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$22.95 per ton last week to -$24.65 per ton [1] - As of the week ending June 20, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM remained stable at 3,600 yuan per metal ton compared to last week, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates increased by $2 per ton to $55 per ton. Recent zinc ore tender results in North China were 5,500 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton compared to the previous period, and the New century zinc ore tender result was $40 per dry ton. The zinc ore import window remained closed, but overseas zinc ore departure data increased [1] - Specifically, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 1.46% to 58.6% compared to last week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 4.72% to 55.12%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.08% to 59% [1] - According to SMM statistics, as of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major areas monitored by SMM was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last week; the warrant inventory decreased by 229 tons to 8,743 tons compared to the same period last week; the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 tons to 126,225 tons compared to last week [1] Profit - As of June 19, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises in the industry (excluding by - product income) was -500 yuan per ton, and the profit was about 1,000 yuan per ton after adding by - product income [2] Market Analysis - The operating rate of zinc alloy decreased significantly last week, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur, with a slight increase in the social inventory of zinc ingots. The TC remained stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume continued to increase. Although the room for further increase was limited, the strong trend remained unchanged. There was still smelting profit at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm was high, so the supply pressure remained. The overall consumption showed a marginal downward trend, the spot premium dropped significantly, and there was a lack of fundamental driving force for the zinc price to rise. If the social inventory continued to increase, it would exert significant downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [4]
化工周报:国内负荷快速回升,关注中东地缘进展-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:42
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1]. - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering. The supply - demand structure in June still shows a favorable inventory reduction, but after the warehouse receipts are cancelled and flow out, the available spot in the market will increase. The load will return to a high level in July. Overseas, although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes. Later, the recovery of domestic production and the increase in Saudi supply will largely offset the impact of the shutdown of Iranian plants. On the demand side, the current situation is firm, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the end of June and beginning of July, and the demand outlook is weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [3]. - For trading strategies, the short - term outlook is bullish. Attention should be paid to further developments in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and if the conflict eases, prices may fall. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Price and Spread - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1] Supply - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1] Demand - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Inventory - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]
新能源及有色金属周报:消费端存在不确定性,碳酸锂盘面偏弱运行-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined slightly, and the futures fluctuated narrowly following the macro - sentiment. The overall market situation is affected by factors on the supply, demand, inventory, and profit sides [1][2][3]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak. If the consumer side weakens significantly, there is still room for the lithium carbonate market to decline. However, attention should be paid to the downstream's willingness to accept warehouse receipts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Spot Market - **Price**: The lithium carbonate futures weakened this week. The main contract 2509 closed at 58,900 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.81%. The average price of battery - grade spot was 60,000 yuan/ton, down 1.23% from the previous week, and the average price of industrial - grade spot was 59,000 yuan/ton, down 1.26% from last week. The futures were at a discount of 1,500 yuan/ton to battery - grade lithium carbonate [1]. - **Supply**: The weekly output increased slightly to 18,500 tons, with an increase of 335 tons. The output from different sources all showed a slight increase [1]. - **Consumption**: The output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.92% month - on - month, ternary materials increased by 0.30%, cobalt - lithium decreased by 0.50%, and manganese - lithium decreased by 0.67%. The demand at the battery end is difficult to increase, and the industry chain is in a destocking trend [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry increased. The spot inventory was 134,900 tons, an increase of 1,352 tons from last week. The futures warehouse receipt volume decreased to 30,000 tons [2]. - **Profit**: Lithium ore prices have been relatively stable recently. Enterprises purchasing lithium ore externally have difficulty in making profits and need to cooperate with futures hedging. Salt lake lithium extraction maintains profitability. Recycling material manufacturers are facing losses, and the processing fees of processing enterprises are in a competitive situation [2]. Other Products - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The output this week was 5,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%. The overall supply of the market is stable, but the industry's operating rate remains at a low level [3]. - **Cobalt**: The output of domestic cobalt sulfate is expected to be 1,080 metal tons this week, a decrease from last week, and the operating rate has also declined. The output of cobalt tetroxide is expected to be 2,415 tons, remaining stable compared to last week [4]. Market Transactions - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot transactions were dull, and the basis of spot quotations weakened. Downstream procurement is still mainly based on long - term agreements and customer - supplied materials, and the demand for spot purchases is poor [3]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt salt market is in the off - season of demand, and the demand growth momentum is limited. The downstream purchasing atmosphere is not good, and the market is mainly executing existing orders [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: If the consumer side weakens significantly, the lithium carbonate market still has room to decline. If the market rebounds, upstream enterprises should mainly sell for hedging at high prices [8]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money call options and use bear spread options [8].
新能源及有色金属周报:消费端偏弱,镍不锈钢偏弱震荡运行-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:42
新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-06-22 消费端偏弱,镍不锈钢偏弱震荡运行 镍:宏观情绪偏空,沪镍延续弱势 市场分析 价格方面:截至6月20日当周,纯镍现货价较上周下跌约875元/吨至120625元/吨。金川镍升水2600元/吨,俄镍贴水 扩大至-100元/吨(周降50元),镍豆升水-600元/吨。LME镍0-3贴水-220美元/吨,市场交投情绪较淡。 宏观方面:关税方面,欧盟对华电动车加征15%临时关税(7月15日生效),新能源电池订单环比降10%;印尼政策 方面,镍矿出口税上调5%正式执行,但新增配额对冲短期利空。美联储方面,点阵图预示年内仅降息1次。 供应:精炼镍方面,6月排产34,150吨(环比减少2.6%),但西北大厂仍满负荷运行。镍矿供应方面,印尼6月发货 量增18%至142万湿吨。 消费:新能源电池订单环比降10%,三元前驱体企业开工率降至58%。纯镍现货整体交投情绪较淡。 成本利润:湿法中间品一体化工艺成本微升至10.4-10.9万元/吨,平均利润收窄至1万元/吨;非一体化电积镍工艺 成本12.7-13.1万元/吨,亏损扩至-0.9至-0.3万元/吨。 库存方面: 本周沪镍库存减少389 ...
尿素周报:国际尿素走高,提振市场气氛-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:42
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Inter - period**: None [3] 2. Core View Due to the geopolitical military conflict between Iran and Israel, international urea prices have soared, boosting market sentiment and causing significant increases in both domestic futures and spot prices. The urea industry is operating at a high level of production, with few planned device overhauls, leading to expected increases in production and greater supply - side pressure. The downstream agricultural demand for top - dressing and restocking has increased, resulting in higher pre - sale orders from factories. However, industrial demand remains weak, with the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers continuing to decline and the melamine industry operating at a low level. Urea manufacturers are exporting in an orderly manner, with an increase in the volume of urea gathered at ports, leading to rising port inventories and a downward trend in enterprise inventories. The prices of upstream coal and natural gas raw materials are stable, maintaining a stable cost structure. Currently, the supply - demand situation in the urea market has not been substantially alleviated, and subsequent attention should be paid to downstream demand and market sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the urea main contract is 1730 yuan/ton (- 50); the market price of small - particle urea in Henan is 1820 yuan/ton (- 10); in Shandong, it is 1820 yuan/ton (- 20); and in Jiangsu, it is 1830 yuan/ton (- 10). - **Basis**: The Shandong urea basis is 90 yuan/ton (+ 30); the Henan urea basis is 90 yuan/ton (+ 40); and the Jiangsu urea basis is 100 yuan/ton (+ 40). - **Profit**: The urea production profit is 290.0 yuan/ton (- 20.0), and the export profit is 511.9 yuan/ton (+ 9.6) [1] 3.2 Upstream Supply - **Capacity Utilization**: As of June 20, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate is 88.9% (+ 1.1%). - **Production Forecast**: Urea production is expected to increase due to high - level operation and few planned device overhauls [1][2] 3.3 Downstream Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: The demand for top - dressing and restocking in the agricultural sector has been released, and factory pre - sale orders have increased. - **Industrial Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is 31.8% (- 2.0%), and the melamine capacity utilization rate is 64.3% (- 2.0%), remaining at a low level [1][2] 3.4 Urea Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the enterprise in - factory inventory is 113.6 tons (- 4.1), showing a downward trend. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory is 29.5 tons (+ 5.0), showing an upward trend [1][2]
新能源及有色金属周报:能源危机担忧为时尚早,氧化铝现货价格快速下滑-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] Core Viewpoints - Energy crisis concerns are premature, and the spot price of alumina is rapidly declining [1] - Aluminum consumption shows marginal weakening, and inventory reduction is slowing down, but the absolute inventory is at a historical low. Alumina prices are in a downward trend, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is expanding [6] - The cost of alumina remains stable, while production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is falling rapidly, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making the price more likely to fall than rise [6] - The supply of scrap aluminum for aluminum alloy is tight, and the smelting loss is at a historically high level. Cost support is emerging, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum price increased by 1.79% to $2,561.5/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 1.06% to 20,465 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$0.42/ton last week to $11.16/ton [1] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable and will maintain a steady and slight increase in the future. The built - in capacity is 45.2 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.15 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,000 tons, and the operating rate is 97.7% [1] - **Demand**: According to SMM data, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 52.5% compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 1.06% to 69.36%, the output of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 0.57 million tons to 372,470 tons, and the average operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 63.2% [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. As of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 342,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from the same period last week [1] - **Profit**: As of June 13, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 17,000 yuan/ton, the immediate production profit was about 3,750 yuan/ton, and the marginal maximum production cost was 18,500 yuan/ton [2] Alumina - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the main alumina contract price decreased by 0.17% to 2,890 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi decreased week - on - week, while the FOB price of imported alumina remained unchanged at $370/ton [3] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, according to阿拉丁 data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 112.92 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.05 million tons, a weekly increase of 400,000 tons, and the operating rate was 82.4% [3] - **Cost**: As of the week of June 20, the quoted price of bauxite on the website remained unchanged at $74.5/ton. The seaborne freight dropped from $27/ton to $22/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the national alumina inventory was 3.84 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 2.826 million tons, a weekly increase of 18,000 tons; the platform and port inventory was 906,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,000 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons [4] - **Profit**: As of June 20, 2025, based on imported ore at $75/ton, the full production cost of marginal high - cost enterprises was about 2,900 yuan/ton, and the production profit was about 350 yuan/ton. The production profit using domestic ore was about 300 yuan/ton. Alumina imports started to incur losses [4] Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: As of June 20, 2025, the Jiangxi Baotai quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [5] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 23,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [5] Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Be neutral on aluminum and cautiously bearish on alumina [7] - **Arbitrage**: Conduct calendar spread arbitrage on aluminum, going long on AD11 and short on AL11 [7]
农产品周报:苹果交投转淡价稳为主,红枣生长关键期波动加大-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:41
市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,本周收盘苹果2510合约7731元/吨,环比上涨146元/吨,涨幅1.92%。据钢联数据,现货方面,山东 栖霞地区80#一二级现货价格8200元/吨,环比上周持平,现货基差AP10+469,环比下跌146元/吨。陕西延安地 区70#半商品现货价格9600元/吨,环比上周持平,现货基差AP10+1869,环比下跌146元/吨。 近期市场资讯,截至2025年6月18日,全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为116.49万吨,环比上周减少10.97万吨,走 货速度较上周基本持平,同比去年同期有所减缓,当前库存仍处于近五年低值。产区方面,周内主产区苹果交投 持续淡稳,季节性淡季影响明显,消暑类水果需求继续对苹果走货形成压制。分产区来看,本周山东产区整体行 情表现稳定,库内交易来看,目前客商数量不多且拿货积极性一般,性价比高的货源拿货为主, 整体走货不快。 现阶段交易集中于栖霞产区,以发市场为主,整体交易清淡。新季苹果套袋基本收尾,剩余少量大户尚未结束。 陕西产区交易仍集中于陕北地区,剩余货源较多,其余产区基本清库。周内主要以客商自行发前期自存货源为主, 库内交易有限,价格合适货源难寻,个别库中出现水 ...