农产品日报 | 2025-08-15 早熟果上货量增加，红枣下游陆续备货 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约8123元/吨，较前一日变动-35元/吨，幅度-0.43%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-523，较前一日变动+35；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.50元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+877，较前一日变动+35。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场整体走货一般，目前陕西渭南、山西运城等已上市早熟品种质量整体不佳。库存富士行 情维持稳淡，山东产区客商拿货积极性一般，成交氛围不旺，目前价格表现混乱，85#果压价明显。早熟方面来看， 纸袋嘎啦大面积脱袋等待上色，陕西铜川以南上量交易，价格两极分化，好货价格坚挺，差货以质论价。山东产 区鲁丽、金都红、奶油华硕有序交易，整体量不大，客商采购积极性尚可。销区市场需求不佳，应季水果冲击依 旧明显。陕西渭南合阳纸袋嘎啦70#起步一般货参考价3.5-3.7元/斤附近，极好货参考价4.2-4.3元/斤附近，实际以质 论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-15 库存增加，现货市场流通充足 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-1.50美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22510元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-50元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22490元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-70元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22500元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-60元/吨。 期货方面：2025-08-14沪锌主力合约开于22600元/吨，收于22480元/吨，较前一交易日-190元/吨，全天交易日成交 78030手，全天交易日持仓80798手，日内价格最高点达到22640元/吨，最低点达到22430元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-08-14，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.92万吨，较上期变化1.00万吨。截止2025-08-14，LME 锌库存为77450吨，较上一交易日变化-1025吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish. For arbitrage, it is recommended to hold off. For options, the strategy is to short put at 77,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current low domestic TC price makes copper prices prone to rise and difficult to fall. Combined with the increased market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the strong performance of precious metal prices, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips for copper operations, with the suggested buying range between 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [8] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 14, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,290 yuan/ton and closed at 78,950 yuan/ton, a -0.54% decline from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,760 yuan/ton and closed at 78,940 yuan/ton, a 0.01% decline from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market remained strong. SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,320 - 79,550 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 - 280 yuan/ton to the current contract, and an average premium of 210 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 10 yuan from the previous day. Considering the approaching delivery date and downstream stocking demand on Friday, the spot premium is expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: In the US employment market, the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than expected. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week dropped to 1,953,000, also lower than expected. US PPI in July increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years. The stronger - than - expected employment and inflation data may put downward pressure on copper prices [3] - **Mine End**: Australia's second - largest gold miner is seeking to increase its investment in copper, with the potential to raise the proportion of copper business revenue to 40% from the current 25% [4] - **Smelting and Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of cathode copper by 24 domestic sample enterprises was 7.1346 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.78%. In July, the output was 1.0751 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.84% and a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. An Indian copper smelter with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons has applied to LME to become a listed copper delivery brand [5] - **Consumption**: The rapid construction of AI data centers may further tighten the global copper market, potentially leading to a supply shortage of 6 million tons by 2035. The copper demand in this industry is expected to average about 400,000 tons per year in the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tons in 2028 [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 875 tons to 155,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,634 tons to 24,434 tons. On August 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.256 million tons, a change of - 60,000 tons from the previous week [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate of the PA alliance has declined, and Maersk has lowered its PSS. The freight rates of OA and PA alliances are following the downward trend. The 8 - month contract freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously being revised downward, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the 12 - month contract's risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on the 10 - month contract when the price is high [1][3][4][5]. - In terms of strategies, the main contract is expected to be weak in oscillation, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies in various alliances have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price has increased, while HPL's price remains stable. Some companies in the MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also have specific price quotes for different time periods. Maersk has lowered its PSS for the Far East - Nordic region to 50/100 [1]. - **Geopolitical Aspect**: China emphasizes the importance of maintaining the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promoting the political settlement of the Yemen issue [2]. II. Shipping Capacity - **Weekly and Monthly Shipping Capacity**: From August to October, the weekly and monthly average shipping capacities of China - European base ports show certain fluctuations. There are also empty sailings, TBNs, and additional ships in different months. For example, in August, there are 4 empty sailings in the OA alliance, and Maersk and the OA alliance have added several additional ships [3]. III. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously being revised downward, which brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on August 11, 18, and 25. The shipping company's prices have entered a downward cycle [3]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normal years see the freight rate in October 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to the price follow - up of other shipping companies after Maersk's freight rate drops, and the additional ships announced by HPL in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract when the price is high, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [4][5]. - **December Contract**: The regular seasonal pattern of high freight rates in the fourth quarter still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [5]. IV. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts of the container shipping index for European routes are provided, including EC2602, EC2604, etc. [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) are given on different dates [6]. V. Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU. As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [6]. VI. Strategy and Risk - **Strategy**: The main contract is expected to be weak in oscillation, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. - **Risk**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and American economies, a significant drop in oil prices, etc. Upward risks include the recovery of the European and American economies, supply chain problems, etc. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The downstream start - up of EB has rebounded. The port inventory of pure benzene continues to decline slightly, the futures premium narrows, the import pressure does not increase further, but the downstream demand drops from its peak, and the subsequent inventory removal amplitude of pure benzene is small with a still high absolute inventory value. For styrene, the port inventory enters the seasonal decline cycle, the downstream start - up rises rapidly, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream procurement before the peak season [1][3] Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 49 yuan/ton (+18), the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 10 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton), and the spread between BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period should be reverse - arbitraged when it is high [1][4] - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 67 yuan/ton (+19 yuan/ton), and the spread between EB2509 - 2510 inter - period should be reverse - arbitraged when it is high [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 188 dollars/ton (+3 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 171 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 76.8 dollars/ton (+3.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products vary, with the production profit of caprolactam at - 1830 yuan/ton (+15), that of phenol - acetone at - 689 yuan/ton (+0), that of aniline at - 161 yuan/ton (-262), and that of adipic acid at - 1517 yuan/ton (+36) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 328 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton), and the EB - BZ spread should be narrowed when it is high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.60 tons (-1.70 tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different trends, with the caprolactam operating rate at 93.72% (+5.31%), the phenol operating rate at 77.00% (+0.00%), the aniline operating rate at 71.57% (-1.89%), and the adipic acid operating rate at 61.70% (+7.30%) [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 148,800 tons (-10,200 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 69,500 tons (+3,000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 218 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 58.08% (+14.41%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 82 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.70% (+1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 127 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 71.10% (+0.00%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1830 yuan/ton (+15), and the operating rate is 93.72% (+5.31%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 689 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate of phenol is 77.00% (+0.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (-262), and the operating rate is 71.57% (-1.89%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1517 yuan/ton (+36), and the operating rate is 61.70% (+7.30%) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals in July still showed resilience. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, the new orders index fell to 49.4, and non - manufacturing remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, higher than expected. The US July PPI month - on - month soared to 0.9%, the largest increase in three years [1]. - The "reciprocal tariff" situation is complex. The US has adjusted tariff policies, and the current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, which will drag down commodities highly affected by external demand [2]. - For commodities, the domestic supply - side is most sensitive to the black and new energy metal sectors. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The chemical sector's "anti - involution" space and the mid - term supply of the energy sector are also worthy of attention [3]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in July showed mixed performance. The official manufacturing PMI declined, but exports were strong. The US had unexpected non - farm data in July, and the service PMI improved. The "Great Beauty" Act may support subsequent consumption. After the data release, US stock index futures fell, and traders reduced bets on a September Fed rate cut [1]. - The A - share market on August 14 showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with all three major indices closing down, and trading volume reaching 2.31 trillion. Treasury bonds and commodities generally declined [1]. Tariff Policy - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariff" rates for some countries. On August 6, Trump said the US would impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors. The EU's chip exports to the US are subject to a 15% tariff cap. China and the US agreed to suspend the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [2]. Commodity Segments - The black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to domestic supply - side changes. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. The mid - term supply of the energy sector is expected to be relatively loose, with OPEC + accelerating production increases [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations due to the absence of weather disturbances [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, the strategy is to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Key News - The US July PPI annual rate was 3.3%, higher than the expected 2.5%. The monthly rate was 0.9%, much higher than the expected 0.2% [5]. - The A - share market on August 14 had a weak performance, with over 4,600 stocks falling, and the trading volume was 2.31 trillion. Commodity futures also showed a general decline, with some exceptions like caustic soda [5]. - US San Francisco Fed President Daly said a large - scale rate cut in September was unnecessary. Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates [5]. - The "Trump - Putin meeting" is scheduled to start at 22:30 Moscow time on the 15th. The US Treasury Secretary threatened to increase sanctions on Russia if the meeting goes poorly [3][5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg sectors is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - For the pig market, future pig supply is expected to continue increasing, putting pressure on spot prices. The improvement in consumption is uncertain. Although the market believes that pig inventory has been significantly reduced and the expectation for forward contracts has improved, the overall reduction in pig production capacity is not obvious at present and needs continuous attention [2] - For the egg market, egg prices have declined, leading to increased replenishment enthusiasm among food companies and low - price stocking by traders. Tourism and catering consumption remains strong, and consumption demand is on the rise. The spot market is moving smoothly, and egg consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate upward this week, but the impact of cold - storage egg出库 on the spot market needs to be closely monitored [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,900 yuan/ton, a change of - 145.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.03% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 13.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product prices on August 14: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 114.75, up 0.17 points from the previous day; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 115.05, up 0.19 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; beef was 64.91 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; mutton was 59.85 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; eggs were 7.52 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; white - striped chickens were 17.39 yuan/kg, up 0.9% [1] Market Analysis - Future pig supply is expected to increase, and spot prices will continue to be under pressure. The improvement in consumption is uncertain. Although the market believes that pig inventory has been significantly reduced, the overall reduction in pig production capacity is not obvious at present and needs continuous attention [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3,189 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 88.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.69% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.02 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.05 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.62 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On August 14, the national production - link inventory was 0.85 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.05 days, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Egg prices have declined, leading to increased replenishment enthusiasm among food companies and low - price stocking by traders. Tourism and catering consumption remains strong, and consumption demand is on the rise. The spot market is moving smoothly, and egg consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate upward this week, but the impact of cold - storage egg出库 on the spot market needs to be closely monitored [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Maintain a neutral stance on domestic supplies, but keep an eye on cost changes due to low inventories and unexpected overseas operations [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,367 yuan/ton (a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,488 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day, a change of +0.00%), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 82 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton (a decrease of $2/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -59 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton month-on-month). The inventory of the main ports in East China increased this week [1] - In terms of supply, the domestic load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Overseas, the restart of some units has not gone smoothly, and the increase in EG imports has been lower than expected. In terms of demand, the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly alleviated, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory build-up in August, with a lack of sustainability in the increase of port inventories, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,367 yuan/ton (a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,488 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day, a change of +0.00%), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 82 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton (a decrease of $2/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -59 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - In July, there was a concentrated restocking at the terminal, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly alleviated. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 553,000 tons (an increase of 37,000 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 535,000 tons (an increase of 49,000 tons month-on-month). As of August 14, the total inventory of MEG in the ports of East China was 534,500 tons, an increase of 57,100 tons from Monday and 48,800 tons from Thursday of last week [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, with increased rainfall in major production areas, raw material output is expected to be limited, strengthening cost - side support. Domestic imports are expected to remain stable. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and tire factory operating rates are unlikely to rise. Rubber prices are expected to have support at the lower end [5] - For BR, supply may increase slightly, and downstream demand has no highlights. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The downward space depends on the price fluctuation of upstream butadiene. BR may follow the raw material price down, but the strong natural rubber price and continuous tire replacement demand provide some support [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,610 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,755 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import data: In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - Global natural rubber: In June 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to drop 1.5% to 119,100 tons, a 14.5% increase from the previous month; consumption was expected to increase 0.7% to 127,100 tons, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first half of the year, cumulative production was expected to drop 1.1% to 607,600 tons, and cumulative consumption increased 1% to 771,500 tons [2] - Cote d'Ivoire: In the first 7 months of 2025, rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period in 2024. In July, exports increased 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - Heavy - truck market: In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, an increase of about 42% from 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - US tire imports: In the first half of 2025, the US imported 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% increase year - on - year. Passenger car tire imports increased 3% to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased 10% to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased 13% to 132,000; motorcycle tire imports increased 22% to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased 5% to 3.15 million [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 14, 2025, the RU basis was - 1,000 yuan/ton (+60); the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,200 yuan/ton (-40); the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,892 yuan/ton (-71.95); the NR basis was 269.00 yuan/ton (+7.00); whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (unchanged); mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (-20); 3L spot was 14,800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 62.50 Thai baht/kg (-0.20); Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.20); Thai cup lump was 49.80 Thai baht/kg (+0.50); the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 Thai baht/kg (-0.30) [4] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.06% (+0.80%); the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.71% (-0.27%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,277,859 tons (-10,990.00); the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 619,852 tons (-11,918); the RU futures inventory was 176,280 tons (-1,350); the NR futures inventory was 42,235 tons (+2,519) [4] BR - Spot and spreads: On August 14, 2025, the BR basis was - 150 yuan/ton (+75); the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged); the quoted price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton (unchanged); the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,750 yuan/ton (+50); the price of private BR in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (unchanged); the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,103 yuan/ton (+9) [4] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 64.52% (-3.65%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 6,990 tons (-300); the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,450 tons (-700) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is neutral; the recommendation for the PL01 - 02 inter - period is reverse arbitrage; there is no recommendation for cross - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - side start - up has increased slightly month - on - month. Although the maintenance plan of Shandong Zhenhua previously supported prices, the new production capacity of a 280,000 - ton K - COT device in Shandong was released, and the Tianhong PDH device is expected to restart. With the continuous increase in supply, the propylene price continued to be weakly sorted. The downstream start - up showed a mixed trend. The profit of propylene oxide dropped significantly, and its start - up also declined. The start - up of butanol decreased significantly, while the start - up of octanol increased rapidly. The start - up of the main downstream PP increased slightly, but the purchasing enthusiasm was not strong, and the start - up of the PP downstream was also weak. Overall, the downstream demand for propylene provided a small - scale, phased support, but the resilience was still insufficient. Later, attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of the main downstream industries during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The cost of crude oil weakened, and the decline in Saudi CP drove down the propane price, resulting in a downward shift in the cost support for propylene [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the propylene basis in East China and North China, the propylene 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [7][10][13] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It covers figures on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization of the main crude oil refineries [18][25][32] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 3.4 Profit and Capacity Utilization of Propylene Downstream Industries - It includes figures on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][42][56][65] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report has figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67][68]