新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-20 消费端存在不确定性，碳酸锂盘面或继续探底 市场分析 2025年6月19日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于59740元/吨，收于60060元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.13%。当 日成交量为167377手，持仓量为307261手，较前一交易日增加376手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳390 元/吨。所有合约总持仓598148手，较前一交易日增加15808手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少84329手，成 交量282439，整体投机度为0.47。当日碳酸锂仓单29957手，较上个交易日减少10手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月19日电池级碳酸锂报价5.99-6.1万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0万元/吨，工 业级碳酸锂报价5.835-5.935万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0万元/吨。 本周最新统计库存增长1352吨至13.49万吨，主要是上游及其他环节库存增加较多。周度产量也小幅增长891吨至 1.85万吨，以锂辉石生产产量有所增长。 策略 整体来看，消费端有转弱迹象，不分电池厂订单有所降低，供应端维持高位，库存开始累库，整体表现较弱，若 消费 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with potential for policy - related disturbances. For trading, a range - bound operation is recommended, and upstream producers are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. The polysilicon futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and a range - bound operation is also recommended [3][7] Market Analysis and Strategy for Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On June 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly oscillating. The main contract 2509 opened at 7385 yuan/ton and closed at 7470 yuan/ton, a change of 35 yuan/ton (0.47%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 310357 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 55179 lots, a decrease of 441 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1] - On June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 55.9 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons from the previous week. The inventory in social general warehouses was 13.1 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons, and that in social delivery warehouses was 42.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons [1] - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10200 - 10800 yuan/ton, with an average price significantly lower than the previous week. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was 10400 - 10800 yuan/ton. Due to the weakening cost support and sluggish off - season demand, DMC enterprises started to cut prices to sell goods, and downstream enterprises' purchases increased [2] Strategy - In the recent days, the industrial silicon futures market has been oscillating. Although the statistical inventory has slightly decreased, the total inventory is still expected to slightly increase. The inventory structure has changed. There is a possibility of increased production of polysilicon, but the supply of industrial silicon is also expected to increase. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to policy disturbances [3] - For trading strategies, a range - bound operation is recommended, and upstream producers are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Market Analysis and Strategy for Polysilicon Market Analysis - On June 19, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 33000 yuan/ton and closing at 32720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 27613 lots (30435 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 57380 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [4] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory slightly increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 26.20, a decrease of 4.70% compared to the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 18.74GW, a decrease of 3.10%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 24500.00 tons, an increase of 2.94%, and the output of silicon wafers was 12.90GW, a decrease of 1.53% [5] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.90 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.26 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.05 yuan/piece [5] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W [6] Strategy - In the recent two days, the near - month contracts of polysilicon futures have significantly declined, while the far - month contracts have been relatively strong. On one hand, it is affected by the increased supply and weak consumption of near - month contracts. On the other hand, according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association's meeting, there will be greater - scale production cuts in the third quarter, and the start - up ratio is expected to decrease by 10% - 15%. Policies to control "below - cost sales" have been implemented. The market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [7] - For trading strategies, a range - bound operation is recommended. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, the refined nickel market is in a pattern of oversupply with relatively sluggish spot trading. The short - term may end the weak oscillation stage, and the mid - to long - term maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies [2][3] - For the stainless steel variety, the short - term may find a phased low around 12400, and the mid - to long - term also maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On June 19, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 118,550 yuan/ton and closed at 118,890 yuan/ton, a 0.46% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 88,477 lots, and the open interest was 75,358 lots [1] - The main contract 2507 oscillated upwards, ending a five - day losing streak. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous trading day. The green column area of the daily MACD did not continue to expand. There was a top - divergence phenomenon at around 123,000 on the 60 - minute line on June 6. The spot market prices of mainstream brands increased, and the premium was relatively stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,765 (- 374.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 203,598 (- 522) tons [2] - **Strategy** - The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 118,000 - 119,000. Short - term operations are advised to be postponed to avoid systematic risks, and the mid - to long - term maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies. The strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On June 19, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,490 yuan/ton and closed at 12,575 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 121,673 lots, and the open interest was 179,438 lots [3] - The main contract oscillated upwards, closing with a positive line. The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day. The green column area of the daily MACD did not expand further and was close to turning red. The spot market prices in Foshan were mostly flat compared to the previous trading day, and the market confidence had not recovered. The nickel - iron price was expected to be weak in the short term. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 12,850 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 315 - 615 yuan/ton [4] - **Strategy** - The 60 - minute line of the stainless steel main contract formed a double - bottom structure at 12,440. Wait for a rebound to break through the previous high of 12,635. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500. Short - term operations are advised to be postponed to avoid systematic risks, and the mid - to long - term maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The cotton market is in a state of shock, with the domestic market having a tightening supply - demand expectation in the later part of this year, but the new - year planting area is increasing and the demand is in the off - season. The international market is affected by the USDA report and weather conditions, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle, with the 25/26 season's supply changing from shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is dragged down by the weak external market [5][6] - Pulp: The pulp market has a loose supply pattern, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6][7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,775 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan's exports: In May 2025, textile and clothing exports were 1.531 billion US dollars, down 1.75% year - on - year and up 25.42% month - on - month [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil's ports: As of the week of June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar was 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.8539 million tons, down 56,500 tons (1.94%) from the previous week [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,254 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian needles was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Imports: China's pulp imports in May 2025 were 3.016 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [6] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - Macro: Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, but the macro - environment is still uncertain [2] - International: The USDA report adjusted down the global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, and the ending stocks decreased. The US cotton - growing areas have improved drought conditions [2] - Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is accelerating the destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [2] Sugar - International: Although energy prices support the international sugar price, the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India and Thailand has put pressure on the price [5] - Domestic: The domestic sales data is good, but the supply pressure is increasing due to the weakening of the external market [6] Pulp - Supply: The long - term contract price of Arauco has been continuously lowered, and the domestic imports have increased. The port inventory is at a high level [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak. The papermaking industry is in the off - season [7] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the cotton price to fluctuate in a range in the short term [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral - to - bearish strategy, and focus on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the pulp price to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-20 成材持续去库，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪扰动，钢价震荡运行 风险 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2986元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3103元/吨。现货方面，根据钢联数据显示，螺纹本 周产量较上周有所上升，库存、需求略微下降；热卷产量和消费上升，库存小幅下降。昨日，全国建材成交9.01 万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，随着建材进入消费淡季，建材产销存持续回落，由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季弱需 求将持续压制钢材价格；热卷方面，目前板材利润优于建材，产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退 坡后影响板材消费，虽然出口略有下滑，但是短期仍保持高位。整体来看，钢材目前供需矛盾不大，后期关注中 美关税谈判和内需刺激政策。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求维持韧性，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主港铁矿累 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-20 英国央行维持利率不变 特朗普继续向美联储施压 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，英国央行将利率维持在4.25%不变，投票比例显示内部分歧加大。交易员预计该行今年还会再降息50个基 点。此外，在地缘方面，以色列国防部长称，消灭哈梅内伊是此次行动的目标之一。而白宫则表示，特朗普与伊 朗谈判"有很大"机会，其将在两周内决定是否攻击伊朗。此外，昨日特朗普再度抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，称其 是美国的耻辱，并表示美联储应该降息250个基点。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-19，沪金主力合约开于 786.50元/克，收于 781.24元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.53%。当日成交量为 190490手，持仓量为 161031手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于783.10 元/克，收于 784.06 元/克，较昨日午后收盘下 降0.11%。 2025-06-19，沪银主力合约开于 9012元/千克，收于 8819元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 746980手，持仓量 387527手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,811 元/千克，收于 8,814 元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 下降 ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-20 EB开工进一步回升，PS库存压力仍存 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存15.30万吨（+0.40万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费158美元/吨（+9美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费141美元/吨（+9美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差45.8美元/吨（-3.9美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-45元/吨（+5元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差341元/吨（+24元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润255元/吨（+49元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存66300吨（-13700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存45000吨（-13100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率79.0%（+5.2%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润131元/吨（+11元/吨），PS生产利润-419元/吨（-39元/吨），ABS生产利润45元/吨（-65 元/吨）。EPS开工率53.63%（-1.84%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.40%），ABS开工率63.97%（-0.11%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 目前主要芳烃系品种主要驱动在最上游的原油端，关注地缘冲突进展及 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-20 市场流动性概况 2025-06-19，股指板块成交5693.34亿元，较上一交易日变动+17.12%；持仓金额9864.78亿元，较上一交易日变动 +2.20%；成交持仓比为57.10%。 国债板块成交2540.85亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.28%；持仓金额8742.82亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.82%；成交持 仓比为29.27%。 基本金属板块成交1859.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.64%；持仓金额3868.02亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.90%；成 交持仓比为67.16%。 贵金属板块成交4591.87亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.23%；持仓金额4557.51亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.77%；成 交持仓比为119.19%。 能源化工板块成交7503.48亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.89%；持仓金额4063.85亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.91%；成 交持仓比为122.49%。 农产品板块成交2905.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.91%；持仓金额5740.24亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.79%；成交 持仓比为44.37%。 黑色建材板块成交1774.4 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-20 中东地缘风险尚未缓解，EG偏强运行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4539元/吨（较前一交易日变动+68元/吨，幅度+1.52%），EG华东市场现货价 4547元/吨（较前一交易日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）80元/吨（环比-8元/吨）。 上周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，地缘冲突影响下原油价格大幅上行，乙二醇成本端推动明 显。周二阿曼湾三条游轮相撞起火，同时伊朗EG装置停车面进一步扩大，因安全保证停车中，共涉及135万吨产能， 后续恢复进度等待政府通知，乙二醇盘面偏强运行，继续关注中东地缘冲突演变，以及港口发货影响。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-39美元/吨（环比+4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为227元/吨（环比 +77元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为61.6万吨（环比-1.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为53.7万吨（环比-2.7万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.8万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-20 聚酯负荷坚挺，地缘情绪下价格偏强运行 市场要闻与数据 近期原油价格走势偏强，成本支撑PX/PTA价格，主要驱动依然来自于地缘冲突。中东局势当前仍较为紧张，关注 时态进一步发展。 据CCF数据，周四聚酯负荷92%（较上周+1.1%），减产计划下聚酯负荷不降反升，需求端依然坚挺。 市场分析 成本端，近期油价在中东冲突加剧下暴力拉涨，上周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，近期关注 地缘变化，如果伊以冲突对能源设施的破坏加剧，甚至对霍尔木兹海峡产生影响，则油价面临进一步的上行风险。 如果事态控制在一定程度内，则地缘溢价可能会再度回落。 汽油和芳烃方面，近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤，在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限，今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面，3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复 情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN255美元/吨(环比变动-3.50美元/吨）。 ...