新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-27 单边：短期观望为主，关注库存与消费拐点及矿端复产情况 主力合约换月，碳酸锂盘面宽幅震荡 市场分析 2025-11-26，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于97740元/吨，收于96340元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化1.45%。当日成 交量为810231手，持仓量为478054手，前一交易日持仓量430223手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5540元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单27050手，较上个交易日变化435手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价90000-95600元/吨，较前一交易日变化750元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价88800-92000元/吨，较前一交易日变化750元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1185美元/吨，较前一日变化65美元/吨。据SMM 数据，碳酸锂期货呈现区间震荡格局，主力合约已切换至2605，期货价格主要波动于9.53至9.99万元/吨之间。下游 材料厂采购意愿在短暂回暖后重归观望，采购仍以刚需为主，市场成交表现清淡。目前，上下游企业正在就明年 的长期协议进行谈判，现阶段主要围绕系数展开博弈。 10月，特斯拉在欧盟的新车 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-27 需求提振不足，猪价延续震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11540元/吨，较前交易日变动+125.00元/吨，幅度+1.10%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格11.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-200，较前交易日变动-135；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 11.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH01-200，较前交易日变动-235；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.57元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01+30，较前交易日变动-125。 据农业农村部监测，11月26日"农产品批发价格200指数"为126.14，比昨天上升0.20个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为128.36，比昨天上升0.23个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.87元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；牛肉66.02 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.3%；羊肉63.20元/公斤，比昨天上升1.0%；鸡蛋7.27元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%；白条鸡17.35 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%。 市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, along with differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and increased global trade uncertainties, the inflow of foreign capital is uncertain. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 trillion yuan increase and a 0.15% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, down 0.20% or - 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% or - 1.61% [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.58, down 0.23 or - 0.23%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0775, down 0.017 or - 0.24%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, up 0.02 or + 1.40%; DR007 is 1.47, up 0.02 or + 1.40%; R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 or - 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with no change in value and a - 0.02% change rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.10, up 0.01 or - 0.02% [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 26, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.37 yuan, 105.74 yuan, 107.85 yuan, and 114.29 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.05%, - 0.22%, - 0.36%, and - 0.86% [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.027 yuan, 0.075 yuan, - 0.109 yuan, and 0.131 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Situation**: From January to October 2025, fiscal revenue showed a mild recovery, with general public budget revenue increasing by 0.8% year - on - year. Tax revenue improved for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragged down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months [2]. - **Financial Situation**: At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality and a return from current to time deposits [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 26, 2025, the central bank conducted 213.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Rates**: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.316%, 1.453%, 1.507%, and 1.519% respectively, and the repurchase rates have rebounded recently [2]. 4. Spread Overview The report provides multiple spread analysis charts, including the inter - term spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [29][36][39]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [38][42][50]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are provided on the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [52][56]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts on the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [59][60]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are presented on the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [66][73]. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase rate falls and the treasury bond futures price oscillates, the 2603 strategy is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - Recently, due to fluctuations in the market's expectations for the Fed's December interest rate cut and geopolitical factors in some regions, copper prices have declined. However, as copper prices fall, downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. With more price-fixing by downstream enterprises, some short-selling hedging positions in the processing sector have been closed, providing support for copper prices at the 85,000 yuan/ton level. Currently, one can buy hedging on dips between 85,000 yuan/ton and 85,500 yuan/ton and sell hedging above 89,000 yuan/ton [9] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 26, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 86,750 yuan/ton and closed at 86,590 yuan/ton, a -0.01% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 87,200 yuan/ton and closed at 87,090 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase from the afternoon close [2] - **Spot Situation**: According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to a premium of 170 yuan/ton against the 2512 contract, with an average premium of 80 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price range was 86,510 - 86,800 yuan/ton. The import loss for the current month narrowed to about 800 yuan/ton, and the inter-month spread was in a C structure of 30 - 60 yuan/ton. It is expected that today's copper price will remain around 86,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is unlikely to rise significantly [3] - **Important Information Summary**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat since the last report in most of the 12 Fed districts. Two districts reported a slight economic decline, and one reported a slight increase. The overall outlook remains unchanged, and some people point out that the risk of economic slowdown in the next few months has increased. In the job market, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April, lower than the expected 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased slightly to 1.96 million [4] Mining - At the 2025 World Copper Conference (Asia), the head of the Chilean Mining Association stated that Chile accounts for 23% of global copper production, and about 55% of its copper is exported to China. Three measures are crucial for boosting the industry in the short term: raising the mining limit for small mines, differentiating medium-sized mining project types, and temporarily increasing production capacity by 20% for 5 years [5] Smelting and Import - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association opposes zero or negative processing fees in the copper smelting industry and calls on the global copper industry to address this "unsustainable structural contradiction." China is curbing overexpansion by halting about 2 million tons of illegal capacity and will prioritize the development of new smelting capacity using scrap rather than imported copper concentrates in the future. Chile's state-owned copper company Codelco has significantly increased the copper supply premium for Chinese and South Korean customers in 2026, which will push up import costs and pressure downstream processing enterprise profits [6] Consumption - In October, China's copper tube imports were 1,155.1 tons, a 41.31% month-on-month increase and an 8.37% year-on-year decrease. Cumulative imports were 15,585.2 tons, a 10.77% cumulative year-on-year decrease. Exports were 25,287.9 tons, a 2.33% month-on-month decrease and an 18.57% year-on-year decrease. Cumulative exports were 309,326.6 tons, a 0.16% cumulative year-on-year increase [7] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 825 tons to 156,500 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by -1,140 tons to 39,825 tons. On November 26, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 180,600 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons from the previous week [8] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. Buy hedging on dips between 85,000 yuan/ton and 85,500 yuan/ton and sell hedging above 89,000 yuan/ton [9] - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: Short put

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic outlook is basically stable, but there are risks of a slowdown in some areas. The market is worried about the US economic slowdown, and the possibility of interest rate cuts in December has opened up. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will be in a volatile and upward pattern in the near future, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [1][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that economic activity is basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, but some people point out that the risk of a slowdown in economic activity in the next few months has increased. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April, lower than the expected 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose slightly to 1.96 million [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 942.56 yuan/gram and closed at 946.72 yuan/gram, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 947.00 yuan/gram and closed at 949.34 yuan/gram, up 0.28% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 12,081.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,227.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.82% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 1,643,769 lots, and the open interest was 385,232 lots. In the night session, it opened at 12,250 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,450 yuan/kilogram, up 1.82% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 26, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.992%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.517%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On November 26, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by 7,552 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 2,687 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 453,331 lots, a change of 7.60% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai Silver, in the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by 14,304 lots, and the short positions changed by 9,941 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,051,420 lots, a change of 15.48% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,040.86 tons yesterday, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,582 tons, an increase of 70 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 26, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -3.55 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,071.88 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 77.43, a change of -0.79% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 80.65, a change of -0.79% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On November 26, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 57,208 kilograms, a change of -7.39% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 668,376 kilograms, a change of -37.60% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 18,300 kilograms [7]

原油日报 | 2025-11-27 油价维持震荡，市场仍在等待俄乌和谈进展 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所1月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨70美分，收于每桶58.65美元，涨幅为1.21%； 1月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨65美分，收于每桶63.13美元，涨幅为1.04%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.79%， 报446元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 EIA天然气报告：截至11月21日当周，美国天然气库存总量为39350亿立方英尺，较此前一周减少110亿立方英 尺，较去年同期减少320亿立方英尺，同时较5年均值高1600亿立方英尺。美国至11月28日当周石油钻井总数 407 口，前值419口。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 英国财政大臣里夫斯表示将把燃油税上调的冻结期延长至2026年9月。同时，英国政府表示，将允许在现有油 田附近开展新的油气生产活动，不会颁发新的许可证以勘探新的油气田，新的油气价格机制税率将为35%，新的石 油和天然气价格机制将取代能源利润税，该税预计将于2030年4月或更早结束。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、 高盛集团石油研究主管表示，如果乌克兰和 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), providing data on various types of stock index options. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On November 25, 2025, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 1012700 contracts; CSI 300 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 1325100 contracts; CSI 500 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 1723500 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF option was 202000 contracts; ChiNext ETF option was 2947000 contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index option was 23700 contracts; CSI 300 stock index option was 96100 contracts; and CSI 1000 option was 227100 contracts [1]. - The detailed trading volumes of call and put options and total trading volumes of different stock index options are shown in Table 1. For example, the call trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 493100 contracts, the put trading volume was 434800 contracts, and the total trading volume was 928000 contracts [20]. Option PCR - The PCR data of different stock index options are as follows: The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was reported at 1.00, with a month-on-month change of -0.33; the position PCR was reported at 0.80, with a month-on-month change of +0.04. Similar data are provided for other options [2][34]. Option VIX - The VIX data of different stock index options are as follows: The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was reported at 16.13%, with a month-on-month change of -0.54%. Similar data are provided for other options [3][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in oil prices has weakened the cost - side support. For PE, there is supply pressure due to the release of new production capacity and the approaching of the demand off - season, while for PP, the supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term, and the cost - side support shows different trends for different production methods [1][2] - The recommended strategies are to cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, maintain a neutral stance on PP, conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 6762 yuan/ton (- 31), PP main contract at 6317 yuan/ton (- 55), LL North China spot at 6800 yuan/ton (+ 0), LL East China spot at 6900 yuan/ton (+ 0), PP East China spot at 6360 yuan/ton (- 20), LL North China basis at 38 yuan/ton (+ 31), LL East China basis at 138 yuan/ton (+ 31), PP East China basis at 43 yuan/ton (+ 35) [1] - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 82.7% (- 0.4%), PP operating rate was 78.3% (- 1.3%) [1] - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 296.4 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 463.6 yuan/ton (- 54.1), PDH - based PP production profit was - 414.4 yuan/ton (- 21.4) [1] - Imports and exports: LL import profit was - 11.1 yuan/ton (+ 10.3), PP import profit was - 231.8 yuan/ton (- 10.1), PP export profit was 2.8 US dollars/ton (+ 1.2) [1] - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 49.9% (- 0.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.9% (+ 0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.2% (+ 0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 62.6% (+ 0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Supply - side device maintenance has increased slightly, but new production capacity is being released, and demand is entering the off - season. Cost - side support from oil - based production has weakened due to the decline in oil prices [2] - PP: The supply - demand situation remains weak in the short term. Although maintenance devices have increased, it has limited impact on the oversupply situation. Demand is also weakening, and the cost - side support for oil - based production has weakened while that for PDH has strengthened [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously sell short LLDPE for hedging, neutral on PP [3] - Inter - period: Reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high [3] - Cross - variety: None [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date investment strategy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current apple futures price has slightly increased, but the warehouse - based trading in the production areas is generally weak. The new - season late Fuji apple's storage volume is more than 10% lower than last year, and the demand side is under pressure. The follow - up should focus on terminal consumption recovery, storage structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchant inventory transfer [1][2][3] - Red dates: The red date futures price fluctuated and closed down. The acquisition progress and prices vary among different production areas. The supply in the sales areas is limited or sufficient, and the new - product prices vary greatly. The market is in a critical transition period, with high inventory pressure and pessimistic future expectations. The future focus will be on the actual consumption situation [5][6][8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 9,491 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan over - 70 semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract was 9,175 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.54% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - The in - warehouse trading of late Fuji is slow, and the overall shipment is average. The outbound speed in the western production areas has slowed down slightly, while the Shandong production area has sporadic outbound shipments, mainly through foreign trade channels. After a round of restocking, the market atmosphere in the production areas has become dull due to slow sales [2] Red dates - The acquisition progress of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is about 50%, and the transfer volume of goods rights is about 30% of the total output. The prices in the production areas have dropped slightly. The acquisition progress varies by region. The sales areas have limited or sufficient supply, and the new - product prices vary due to quality and cost [6][7] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The futures price of apples rose slightly yesterday. The in - warehouse trading in the production areas was generally weak. The new - season late Fuji's storage work was basically completed last week, with the storage volume more than 10% lower than last year. The consumer demand is mainly on - demand procurement, and the sales space is squeezed by citrus [3] Red dates - The futures price of red dates fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The acquisition progress and prices vary among production areas, and the enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is average. The new - product prices in the sales areas vary greatly, and the market is in a critical period of transition. The inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [8] Group 6: Strategies Apple - Be neutral to bullish. The current expectations of storage volume and structure have been reflected in the price. The follow - up should focus on terminal consumption recovery, storage structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchant inventory transfer, and be cautious when chasing high prices [4] Red dates - Be neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the current high - priced new - season spot in the production areas, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price; otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to fall. The near - month contract may still have some room to fall [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Driven by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. There are also differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan increase (0.15%) month - on - month. M2 year - on - year was 8.20%, down 0.20% (- 2.38%) month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.80% (- 1.61%) month - on - month [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.81, down 0.39 (- 0.39%) day - on - day. The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0944, down 0.012 (- 0.16%) day - on - day. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.43, down 0.01 (- 0.97%) day - on - day. DR007 was 1.45, down 0.02 (- 1.10%) day - on - day. R007 was 1.51, down 0.02 (- 1.24%) day - on - day. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.01 (+ 0.44%) day - on - day. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+ 0.44%) day - on - day [10]. 2. Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - **Macro Policy**: On October 27, the central bank restarted open - market Treasury bond trading operations. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached three consensuses. The State Council Tariff Commission announced to continue suspending the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, while retaining the 10% tariff [1]. - **Inflation**: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - **Market Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 25, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.98 yuan, 108.22 yuan, and 115.16 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of 0.01%, 0.00%, - 0.08%, and - 0.33% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.056 yuan, - 0.066 yuan, - 0.088 yuan, and - 0.025 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Situation (January - October 2025)**: General public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months, mainly due to the lack of follow - up force from the front - loaded fiscal efforts in the first half of the year and the weakening of infrastructure expenditures [2]. - **Financial Situation**: At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, with strong government bond issuance and weak corporate and household financing demand. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality and a return from current to time deposits [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 25, 2025, the central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The main repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.316%, 1.433%, 1.540%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation - **Inter - period Spreads of Treasury Bond Futures**: The report mentions various inter - period spreads of Treasury bond futures, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [29][33] - **Implied Yields and Basis Spreads**: It provides information on the implied yields and basis spreads of different - term Treasury bond futures (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) [36][48][55][62]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and IRR**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the TS main contract's IRR and the funding rate [36][37]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: It presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [46]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and IRR**: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the TF main contract's IRR and the funding rate are provided [48]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract are shown [52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and IRR**: The report shows the relationship between the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the T main contract's IRR and the funding rate [55]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract are presented [57]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and IRR**: The relationship between the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the TL main contract's IRR and the funding rate are provided [62][65]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract are shown [68]. Strategies - **Single - sided Strategy**: With the decline in repurchase rates, Treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline in basis spreads [5]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].