Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial products and precious metals are recommended for long - position allocation on dips [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic policy expectations are rising, and the government is trying to implement more proactive macro - policies to cope with the increased external pressure [1] - The inflation outlook in the United States is clearer, with the Fed cutting interest rates and the possibility of further cuts in the future. Different commodity sectors have different trends and investment opportunities [2] - Precious metals are expected to continue to strengthen due to the trends of de - dollarization and the interest - rate cut cycle [2][5] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, with features like "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption". External tariff pressure increased, and the government proposed stable - growth policies. The central bank maintained LPR and conducted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. There were also positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations [1] - The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index has been shrinking for six consecutive months, with improved new orders and a falling price index. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and there are expectations of further cuts. The US Senate rejected short - term spending bills, and there is a risk of a government shutdown. The US promised to support Argentina, causing a sharp rise in Argentine dollar - denominated bonds [2] Commodity Sector Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors; precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is restricted by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, the energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, and agricultural products are affected by tariffs and inflation expectations [2] - Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen despite the "sell - the - fact" situation after the Fed's interest - rate cut. On September 22, spot gold reached a new high of $3720 per ounce, up nearly 8% this month [2][5][6] Strategy - Recommend long - position allocation of industrial products and precious metals on dips in the commodity and stock index futures markets [3]

FICC日报 | 2025-09-23 金融市场重磅发声，科技行情有望延续 市场分析 高层重磅发声。国内方面，国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。央行行长潘功胜介绍，截 至今年6月末，我国银行业总资产近470万亿元，位居世界第一；股票、债券市场规模位居世界第二；外汇储备规 模连续20年位居世界第一。金融监管总局局长李云泽介绍，目前银行业保险业总资产超过500万亿元，5年来年均 增长9%；信托、理财、保险资管机构管理资产近100万亿元；"白名单"项目贷款超过7万亿元，支持近2000万套住 房建设交付。证监会主席吴清介绍，资本市场含"科"量进一步提升，目前A股科技板块市值占比超过1/4；截至8月 底，各类中长期资金合计持有A股流通市值约21.4万亿元，较"十三五"末增长32%，外资持有A股市值3.4万亿元。 外汇局局长朱鹤新介绍，7月末境外机构和个人持有境内股票、债券、存贷款超10万亿元。海外方面，圣路易斯联 储主席穆萨莱姆强调，目前利率水平已处于"略微紧缩与中性之间"，未来进一步降息的空间有限。 指数收红。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收红，沪指涨0.22%收于3828.58点，创业板指涨0. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Argentina's temporary cancellation of soybean export taxes, smooth sowing in South America, and the near - full realization of the US's high - yield expectations have led to a further loosening of the overall soybean supply, which may put pressure on oil prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9360.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +44 yuan (+0.47%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8366.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +38.00 yuan (+0.46%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10143.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +75.00 yuan (+0.74%) [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9260.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +10.00 yuan (+0.11%), and the spot basis was P01 + - 100.00, with a daily change of - 34.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8530.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +20.00 yuan/ton (+0.24%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 164.00, with a daily change of - 18.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10360.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +70.00 yuan (+0.68%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 217.00, with a daily change of - 5.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market News Argentina's Policy - On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, soybean derivatives (such as soybean meal and soybean oil), corn, and wheat until October 31 or until export volume reaches $7 billion, aiming to increase foreign exchange supply and curb the decline of the local currency [2] Brazil's Agricultural Situation - As of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean sowing area for the 2025/26 season reached 0.9% of the expected total area, with significant increases in field operations in Paraná, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, and São Paulo states, at the same level as the same period last year. The Brazilian Oilseed Processing Association (Abiove) expects Brazilian soybean processing enterprises to invest 5.9 billion reais ($1.11 billion) in the next 12 months, which will increase the country's soybean crushing capacity by 8% (about 6 million tons per year) [2] US Agricultural Situation - A US private exporter reported selling 320,068 tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. As of the week ending September 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, compared with 821,809 tons the previous week. The cumulative US soybean export inspection volume for the current crop year was 1,569,777 tons, compared with 1,246,429 tons in the same period last year [2]

Industry Overview Production Industry - The 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held from September 24th to 26th in Hangzhou with the theme of "Cloud-Intelligence Integration, Carbon-Silicon Symbiosis", featuring three main forums and over 110 aggregated topics focusing on AI, cloud computing, and industrial applications [1] Service Industry - At the press conference, the head of the central bank mentioned that the theme was about the mid - to long - term "14th Five - Year Plan" of the financial industry without short - term policy adjustments; the head of the financial regulatory agency stated that the total assets of the banking and insurance industries exceeded 500 trillion yuan with an average growth of over 9% in five years; the head of the CSRC said that the market value of the A - share technology sector accounted for over 1/4, and the number of tech companies in the top 50 market - value companies increased from 18 to 24; the deputy head of the central bank and head of the SAFE mentioned that cross - border two - way investment and financing were active, with overseas institutions and individuals holding over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits by the end of July [2] Upstream - Black: Wire rod prices have rebounded [3] - Energy: Crude oil and natural gas prices have slightly declined [3] Midstream - Energy: Coal consumption by power plants has remained stable at a medium level [4] - Agriculture: The production of pig products has increased [4] Downstream - Service: The number of domestic flights has increased [4] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 2288.6 | -0.50% | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/22 | 7.8 | 1.56% | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 9372.0 | -0.30% | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 15242.2 | -0.09% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/22 | 19.6 | -1.61% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 80233.3 | -0.95% | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 21942.0 | -1.22% | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 20826.7 | -1.09% | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 122750.0 | -0.81% | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 17081.3 | 0.29% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3167.5 | 1.07% | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 807.4 | -0.06% | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3410.0 | 2.87% | | Building materials | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 9/22 | 14.3 | 2.14% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 14908.3 | -1.49% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | Daily | - | 9/22 | 791.3 | -0.34% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/22 | 62.4 | -0.46% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/22 | 66.0 | -1.42% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 3794.0 | -2.12% | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 784.0 | 1.16% | | Chemicals | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 4626.3 | -0.12% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 7386.7 | 0.11% | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 1655.0 | -0.60% | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/22 | 1262.5 | 0.00% | | Real estate | National cement price index | Daily | - | 9/22 | 133.3 | 1.86% | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 9/22 | 114.8 | 1.48% | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 9/22 | 91.7 | -0.45% | [39]

Group 1: Report's Investment Ratings - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For natural rubber, before the end of September, rainfall in the main producing areas may continue to support rubber costs and limit the decline of rubber prices. The de - stocking in China is expected to slow down. The tire demand is in the seasonal peak season, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, the rubber price is expected to be weak, but the decline is limited [7] - For BR, the upstream operating rate is expected to rise as the overhauled devices restart, and the supply will increase. The demand shows peak - season characteristics, but the raw material demand decreases after the tire factories finish stocking. The supply - demand situation is becoming looser. There are concerns about cost drag, and the price is expected to be weak, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price [7] Group 3: Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12425 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11505 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14850 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1835 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1750 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 4: Market Information Import and Production - In August 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 66.4 tons, an increase of 7.8% compared with the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total imports were 537.3 tons, a 19% increase [2] - In August 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 74 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 584.8 tons, a 10.9% increase [2] - In August 2025, China's output of rubber tire casings was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the output was 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% increase [2] - In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. In August alone, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [2] Sales of Heavy - Duty Trucks and Automobiles - In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [3] - From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, up 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, up 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year, accounting for 45.5% of the total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, 4.292 million vehicles were exported, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, including 1.532 million new energy vehicles, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [3] Group 5: Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 22, 2025, the RU basis was - 865 yuan/ton (- 30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 765 yuan/ton (- 40), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3388 yuan/ton (+ 132.60), the NR basis was 623.00 yuan/ton (- 58.00). The price of whole latex was 14750 yuan/ton (+ 50), the mixed rubber was 14850 yuan/ton (+ 120), the 3L spot was 15200 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1835 US dollars/ton (+ 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+ 0), the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2750 yuan/ton (+ 120) [4][5] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.67 Thai baht/kg (- 0.12), Thai glue was 55.80 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), Thai cup lump was 50.35 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.45 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35) [5] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+ 0.05%), and that of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+ 0.13%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,235,510 tons (- 22,205.00), the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+ 3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (- 1,411) [6] BR - Spot and spreads: On September 22, 2025, the BR basis was - 55 yuan/ton (- 60), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9250 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11450 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11400 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1732 yuan/ton (- 1) [6] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 69.72% (- 3.76%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 7820 tons (- 390), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 25900 tons (- 400) [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of LPG remains relatively loose, and the futures market has significantly corrected. Although the market sentiment has improved with the marginal improvement of fundamentals and the rebound of external prices, the supply - demand pattern has not reversed. Overseas supply is abundant, and China's LPG arrivals and port inventories are high. After the increase in raw material costs, downstream chemical profits are under pressure again, and demand shows signs of a slight decline. The market may enter a range - bound state after adjustment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 22, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4520 - 4570 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3970 - 4330 yuan/ton; North China market, 4350 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4460 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4500 - 4655 yuan/ton; South China market, 4548 - 4750 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 597 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton) and butane at 584 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to 4673 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) for propane and 4572 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB. In South China, propane was 590 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton) and butane was 577 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to 4619 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton) for propane and 4517 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The supply - demand support for propylene has weakened, and the weak trend of oil prices at the cost end has led to a weak operation of propylene. The supply pressure is still relatively large due to the restart of upstream devices and new production capacity. The demand is mainly driven by short - term pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream factories, but it is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost - end support has also weakened [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It involves figures on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][25] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It includes figures on the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

市场流动性概况 2025-09-22，股指板块成交6606.00亿元，较上一交易日变动-34.23%；持仓金额12756.75亿元，较上一交易日变动 -1.69%；成交持仓比为51.52%。 国债板块成交3569.02亿元，较上一交易日变动-37.28%；持仓金额7835.55亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.08%；成交 持仓比为45.72%。 基本金属板块成交3207.65亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.96%；持仓金额4896.81亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.48%；成 交持仓比为81.37%。 贵金属板块成交5089.14亿元，较上一交易日变动+9.72%；持仓金额5376.21亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.04%；成交 持仓比为121.03%。 能源化工板块成交4088.71亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.82%；持仓金额4466.03亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.08%；成 交持仓比为74.75%。 农产品板块成交3093.40亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.61%；持仓金额5647.94亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.32%；成交 持仓比为51.63%。 黑色建材板块成交3397.07亿元，较上一交易日变动+26.95% ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-09-23 台风天气抑制需求释放，沥青市场情绪偏弱 市场分析 1、9月22日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2511合约下午收盘价3401元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌0.7%；持仓236341 手，环比增加4241手，成交167401手，环比减少12441手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3756-4086 元/吨；山东，3480—3770元/吨；华南，3470—3540元/吨； 华东，3550—3650元/吨。 沥青供需两弱格局延续，但局部供应增量强于需求端。具体来看，随着油价下跌，炼厂利润边际修复，沥青装置 开工率与产量一度提升。考虑到中小型炼厂仍受制于原油配额紧张、消费税抵扣比例下滑等因素，产能释放受到 限制，因此沥青整体产量增长空间有限。需求方面，进入9月份，受制于资金与天气因素，终端消费改善幅度有限， 旺季特征不明显，区域存在分化。北方地区的赶工需求为市场提供一定支撑，相比之下南方需求表现更弱，本周 台风天气形成新的阻力。整体来看，目前沥青基本面表现一般，盘面或维持弱势震荡运行。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 | 图1：山东重 ...

市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.21%，报2784元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.68%，报3382 元/吨。 油价维持区间震荡运行的状态，中期平衡表存在供过于求的预期，短期则面临地缘的不确定性因素较多，对燃料 油价格方向指引有限。 燃料油日报 | 2025-09-23 盘面震荡运行，整体市场压力有限 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油市场近期边际改善，虽然供应仍相对充裕，库存较高，但压力相比前期已 有所缓和，市场结构持稳运行。9月份中东高硫燃料油出口明显回落，但随着欧佩克持续增产，且夏季结束后国内 发电需求下滑，未来中东燃料油供应还有增长空间，可能需要船燃与炼厂终端的需求来形成对冲。 低硫燃料油方面，近期尼日利亚Dangote炼厂由于RFCC装置停工而增加低硫燃料油出口，局部供应压力增加，但 同时西区套利船货量下滑，国产量维持中低位，低硫燃料油当前市场压力有限。此外，新加坡成品供应存在偏紧 状况，低硫燃料油市场结构支撑仍存，但上行驱动不足。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 低硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁 ...