石油沥青日报 | 2025-09-23 台风天气抑制需求释放，沥青市场情绪偏弱 市场分析 1、9月22日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2511合约下午收盘价3401元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌0.7%；持仓236341 手，环比增加4241手，成交167401手，环比减少12441手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3756-4086 元/吨；山东，3480—3770元/吨；华南，3470—3540元/吨； 华东，3550—3650元/吨。 沥青供需两弱格局延续，但局部供应增量强于需求端。具体来看，随着油价下跌，炼厂利润边际修复，沥青装置 开工率与产量一度提升。考虑到中小型炼厂仍受制于原油配额紧张、消费税抵扣比例下滑等因素，产能释放受到 限制，因此沥青整体产量增长空间有限。需求方面，进入9月份，受制于资金与天气因素，终端消费改善幅度有限， 旺季特征不明显，区域存在分化。北方地区的赶工需求为市场提供一定支撑，相比之下南方需求表现更弱，本周 台风天气形成新的阻力。整体来看，目前沥青基本面表现一般，盘面或维持弱势震荡运行。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 | 图1：山东重 ...

市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.21%，报2784元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.68%，报3382 元/吨。 油价维持区间震荡运行的状态，中期平衡表存在供过于求的预期，短期则面临地缘的不确定性因素较多，对燃料 油价格方向指引有限。 燃料油日报 | 2025-09-23 盘面震荡运行，整体市场压力有限 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油市场近期边际改善，虽然供应仍相对充裕，库存较高，但压力相比前期已 有所缓和，市场结构持稳运行。9月份中东高硫燃料油出口明显回落，但随着欧佩克持续增产，且夏季结束后国内 发电需求下滑，未来中东燃料油供应还有增长空间，可能需要船燃与炼厂终端的需求来形成对冲。 低硫燃料油方面，近期尼日利亚Dangote炼厂由于RFCC装置停工而增加低硫燃料油出口，局部供应压力增加，但 同时西区套利船货量下滑，国产量维持中低位，低硫燃料油当前市场压力有限。此外，新加坡成品供应存在偏紧 状况，低硫燃料油市场结构支撑仍存，但上行驱动不足。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 低硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁 ...

化工日报 | 2025-09-23 EG主港库存持稳略增，市场弱势整理 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4240元/吨（较前一交易日变动-17元/吨，幅度-0.40%），EG华东市场现货价 4342元/吨（较前一交易日变动-10元/吨，幅度-0.23%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）93元/吨（环比+1元/吨）。 周一，乙二醇港口库存较上周同期持稳略增，需求未见好转，EG价格震荡偏弱市场弱势整理。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-70美元/吨（环比+2美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-228元/吨（环比 -25元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为46.7万吨（环比+0.2万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为38.4万吨（环比+2.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数8.3万吨，周度港口库存持稳略 累；本周华东主港计划到港总数7.3万吨，到港量中性偏低，副港计划到港量2.3万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位持稳，海外近期乙二醇海外供应损失依旧较多，沙特仍有两 套以上装置处于停车或低负荷运行状态， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of October, and attention should be paid to the actual transaction prices during this period [1]. - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to Maersk's first - week quotation in the second half of October. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The freight rate center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. HPL and CMA have attempted to raise prices in the second half of October. If the price increase in the last week is successful, the final three - phase settlement price will correspond to a spot price of approximately $1450/1450/1950/FEU, equivalent to about 1130 points in SCFIS; if the price increase fails, the final settlement price may be below 1000 points [4]. - The December contract is far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Ship companies may adjust supply to keep freight rates high during the fourth - quarter holiday season. However, there are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. If US - bound ships are redirected to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices. The trading rhythm of the December contract is expected to involve first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this cycle until delivery. Given the frequent rhythm changes, investors can try with a light position [5][6]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate weakly, and for arbitrage, it is advisable to short the October contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes decreased from Week 40 to Week 41; HPL - SPOT's price increased in the second half of October and the first half of November. Some companies' prices remained stable in the first half of October, while CMA attempted to raise the price for the Shanghai - Antwerp route in the second half of October [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas has drafted a letter to US President Trump, requesting a 60 - day cease - fire in exchange for the immediate release of half of the hostages in Gaza. The letter is expected to be delivered this week [2]. 3.2 Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Weekly and Monthly Average Capacity**: The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports was 272,600 TEU in October and 285,200 TEU in November. There were 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. - **Ship Deliveries**: 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 62 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 935,000 TEU and 8 ships over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [7]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 22, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 85,743 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 65,644 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., are provided [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 19, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1052/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $1636/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $2557/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1254.92 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1193.64 points [7]. 3.4 Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to short the October contract [8].

尿素日报 | 2025-09-23 低价成交放量，关注节前收单情况 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-22，尿素主力收盘1660元/吨（-1）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1620 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1620元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1630元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-40 元/吨（-19）；河南基差：-40元/吨（-19）；江苏基差：-30元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润90元/吨（-20），出口利润1121 元/吨（-41）。 供应端：截至2025-09-22，企业产能利用率81.21%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为51.60 万吨（-3.34）。 需求端：截至2025-09-22，复合肥产能利用率38.63%（+0.81%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为56.78%（+1.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，现货价格震荡偏弱，关注节前收单情绪。目前 部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥拿货积极性不 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-23 市场情绪趋稳，钢价震荡偏弱 供需与逻辑：宏观方面，弱现实与政策强预期博弈，叠加美联储降息带动风险资产偏好，钢价小幅反弹。基本面 方面，短期下游节前补库带动需求小幅好转，但高库存仍然持续压制钢材价格，产业矛盾进一步积累，关注节前 补库力度及旺季需求表现。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 钢材：市场情绪趋稳，钢价震荡偏弱 市场分析 期现：无 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3185元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3380元/吨。现货方面，今日钢材现货成交整体一般，多数 区域价格呈现小幅上涨，市场投机需求表现尚可，致使整体成交维持相对高位，近期钢厂产量下降，需求有所好 转，供需基本面有所改善。昨日全国建材成交总计114707吨。 期权：无 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：发运小幅回落，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅走弱。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2601合约收于808.5元/吨，涨幅0.37%。 现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格基本稳定，贸易商报价积极性一般，钢厂采购多以刚需为主。供给方 面，本期全球铁矿石发 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The PVC market is volatile with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant, social inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price. The烧碱 market has seen a continuous decline in spot prices, with demand support showing signs of loosening, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm and new alumina plant procurement [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton (-12), with an East China basis of -178 yuan/ton (+12) and a South China basis of -98 yuan/ton (+12) [1]. - **Spot Price**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,840 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide price was 2,890 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+10), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was - 4.5 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate was 76.91% (-3.38%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate was 72.00% (-5.20%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.43% (-3.96%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2,604 yuan/ton (-37), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was - 104 yuan/ton (+37) [1][2]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (-90.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,381.25 yuan/ton (-56.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 37.83 tons (+2.15), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.18 tons (-0.03), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.90% (-1.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The alumina operation rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 65.76% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 89.52% (+1.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Although downstream demand has increased, the export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda has been continuously decreasing. Production may increase slightly, and demand support is weakening. Attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm during the peak season and the start - up rhythm of new alumina plants in Guangxi [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: Go short on the V01 - 05 spread when it is high. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No core viewpoint was presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On September 22, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1546800 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1840300 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 2478700 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 161100 contracts; the trading volume of GEM ETF options was 2011400 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 48000 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 index options was 188700 contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 197900 contracts [1]. - The detailed trading volume data for call, put, and total options of different types are presented in Table 1, such as the total trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1110400 contracts, with 640700 call contracts and 469600 put contracts [20]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.86, with a month - on - month change of - 0.05; the position PCR was reported at 0.73, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03. Similar data for other types of options are also provided, like the turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 0.67, with a month - on - month change of - 0.16; the position PCR was 1.11, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04 [2][34]. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 18.53%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.18%. The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 19.86%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.18%. Similar data for other types of options are presented, such as the VIX of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 26.83%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.55% [3][49].

市场要闻与重要数据 原油日报 | 2025-09-23 伊拉克与库尔德达成初步协议，但恢复出口仍需时日 1、 纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌4美分，收于每桶62.64美元，跌幅为0.06%；11月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌11美分，收于每桶66.57美元，跌幅为0.16%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.38%，报478元/桶。 2、 欧盟计划加大对俄罗斯获取石油美元的施压力度，其下一轮对俄制裁将把目标对准全球石油行业的多个重要 环节。以往针对俄罗斯石油贸易的制裁，对俄罗斯石油供应的影响往往较为有限。冯德莱恩还表示，俄罗斯能源 巨头俄罗斯石油公司和俄罗斯天然气工业石油公司将面临"全面交易禁令"，其他部分企业也将遭遇资产冻结。此 外，欧盟还将新增制裁118艘属于"影子油轮船队"的船只，至此，被欧盟制裁的影子油轮总数已超过560艘。(来源： Bloomberg） 3、 联合国安理会周四否决延长伊朗制裁豁免决议，以4票赞成、9票反对、2票弃权未获通过。若9月27日晚8点前 未达成协议，针对伊朗的制裁将立即恢复。此次投票涉及2015年签署的《联合全面行动计划》"快速恢复制裁机制"， 法国、德国、英国8 ...

供应压力仍存，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 农产品日报 | 2025-09-23 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约12795元/吨，较前交易日变动-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.23%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.81元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH11+15，较前交易日变动-90；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 12.99元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH11+195，较前交易日变动-90；四川地 区外三元生猪价格12.46元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH11-335，较前交易日变动+30。 据农业农村部监测，9月22日"农产品批发价格200指数"为117.96，比上周五上升0.27个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为118.75，比上周五上升0.33个点。截至今日14:00时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.56元/公斤，比 上周五上升0.4%；牛肉65.73元/公斤，比上周五上升0.3%；羊肉61.58元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；鸡蛋8.47元/公 斤，比上周五上升1.6%；白条鸡17.74元/公斤， ...