Hua Tai Qi Huo

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中国6月通胀数据分化,政策效果待观察
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The passing of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase in the first half of the year to a policy phase of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten." In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited market inflation trading [3]. - The inflation trading this round is not smooth. Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency, while in China, it is the supply - side. Further details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. - Attention should be paid to corresponding commodity sectors. Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, a Politburo meeting in China is awaited. In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the CPI turned positive year - on - year, with the core CPI rising 0.7% year - on - year, driven by industrial consumer goods. The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - Since July, policies to address low - price and disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. The low base of PPI in the second half of 2024 may boost the year - on - year PPI reading in the second half of this year [2]. - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2]. Macro - inflation Trading - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US may increase the US government's debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, leading to a shift in US policies. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has re - heated market inflation trading [3]. - Overseas, the US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. However, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and although the "Big Beautiful" bill has passed, Treasury bond issuance will still absorb market liquidity [3]. - In China, the core of inflation trading is on the supply - side. The 2025 Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is different from the 2015 one, and more details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [4]. - The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 (previously $66). The price of agricultural products has limited fluctuation in the short term due to the absence of weather disturbances [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Chinese government supports enterprises in stabilizing employment positions, including expanding the scope of special loans for stabilizing and expanding employment, increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance refunds for enterprises, and allowing enterprises in difficulty to apply for deferred payment of social insurance premiums [7]. - In June, China's CPI turned positive year - on - year after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened in June, but prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery [7]. - Trump has determined that tariffs will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US plans to talk with China in early August [2][7]. - COMEX copper futures maintained a 9.6% increase, and Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The investigation of the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [7]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low, and the three - year inflation expectation remained stable at 3% [7]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by more than 700,000 barrels last week. The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026 [7]. - Trump has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia. He is also considering supporting a new bill for severe sanctions against Russia [7][8].
走货压力略大,猪价震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:34
农产品日报 | 2025-07-10 走货压力略大,猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14265元/吨,较前交易日变动-10.00元/吨,幅度-0.07%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格15.01元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.04元/公斤,现货基差 LH09+745,较前交易日变动-30;江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.30元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤,现货基差LH09+1035,较前交易日变动+10;四 川地区外三元生猪价格14.38元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤,现货基差LH09+115,较前交易日变动+20。 据农业农村部监测, 据农业农村部监测,7月9日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.90,比昨天上升0.16个点,"菜篮 子"产品批发价格指数为112.98,比昨天上升0.19个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.53元/公斤,比昨天 上升0.1%;牛肉63.44元/公斤,比昨天下降0.2%;羊肉59.55元/公斤,比昨天上升0.7%;鸡蛋7.02元/公斤,比昨天 上升1.0%;白条鸡17.02元/公斤,比昨天上升0 ...
农产品日报:天气扰动仍存,板块整体回升-20250710
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:34
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the domestic cotton price is supported in the short - term but restricted in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, and the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [5] - The pulp market has supply pressure and weak demand, and the price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (+0.33%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,163 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of July 6, the budding rate was 48%, 3 percentage points slower than last year; the bolling rate was 14%, 4 percentage points slower than last year; the good - excellent rate was 52%, 7 percentage points higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year. The 25/26 global cotton market is in a loose supply pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate following the macro - market sentiment [2] - Domestic: The cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, supporting the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand is weak, restricting the upward space [2] Strategy - Adopt the idea of shorting far - month contracts on rallies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,779 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.56%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [3] - Forecast: The estimated sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of June in Brazil's central - southern region was 44.24 million tons, down 9.7% year - on - year; the sugar production was 2.95 million tons, down 9.8% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar: The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing the price in the long - term. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is at a low level. But the import profit is high, and the import volume is expected to increase, restricting the upward space [5] Strategy - Expect a range - bound and weak - oscillating pattern in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,106 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.39%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with sporadic fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import volume increased in the first half of 2025, and the domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure exists [6] - Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the global and domestic pulp demand is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [6] Strategy - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [7]
市场氛围一般,缺乏利好
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:34
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LPG market is to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the crude oil price showed a strong trend this week, it had limited impact on the LPG market. The external market only rose slightly, while the PG futures market maintained a weak and volatile trend, lacking market drivers [1] - In the spot market, prices in the Northeast region increased to catch up, while prices in other regions remained stable. Downstream buyers purchased based on rigid demand, and the market atmosphere was average, lacking positive stimuli [1] - In terms of supply, overseas supply remained abundant due to OPEC's production increase and high exports from the United States. Domestically, the commercial supply of LPG increased, resulting in sufficient overall supply [1] - In terms of demand, the civil use of LPG was in the off - season, with continuously low demand. In the deep - processing sector, the operating rate of PDH decreased, and there was no driving force for demand improvement [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 9th, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4550 - 4650 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4160 - 4330 yuan/ton; North China market, 4460 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4380 - 4650 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4570 - 4740 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4050 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4570 - 4720 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 571 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton) and 549 US dollars/ton (up 12 US dollars/ton) respectively. In RMB terms, propane was 4497 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton), and butane was 4324 yuan/ton (up 95 yuan/ton) [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 574 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton) and 549 US dollars/ton (up 7 US dollars/ton) respectively. In RMB terms, propane was 4521 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton), and butane was 4324 yuan/ton (up 56 yuan/ton) [1] Strategy - Unilateral trading strategy: weak and volatile; Cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies: none [2]
裕龙石化三线检修,检修损失量增加
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:34
聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-10 裕龙石化三线检修,检修损失量增加 市场分析 价格与基差方面,L主力合约收盘价为7278元/吨(+33),PP主力合约收盘价为7078元/吨(+33),LL华北现货为7180 元/吨(+0),LL华东现货为7270元/吨(+0),PP华东现货为7120元/吨(+0),LL华北基差为-98元/吨(-33),LL 华东基差为-8元/吨(-33), PP华东基差为42元/吨(-33)。 上游供应方面,PE开工率为79.5%(+3.0%),PP开工率为77.4%(-1.9%)。 生产利润方面,PE油制生产利润为94.8元/吨(-71.4),PP油制生产利润为-295.2元/吨(-71.4),PDH制PP生产利润 为250.4元/吨(-49.8)。 进出口方面,LL进口利润为-109.6元/吨(-10.0),PP进口利润为-634.8元/吨(-10.3),PP出口利润为29.5美元/吨(+1.2)。 下游需求方面,PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%(-0.3%),PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%(+0.5%),PP下游塑编开工率 为42.2%(-1.0%),PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60 ...
宏观日报:宏观宽松延续,国债期货大多收涨-20250710
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:34
宏观日报 | 2025-07-10 宏观宽松延续,国债期货大多收涨 市场分析 宏观面:(1)宏观政策:5月7日国新办发布会上,央行宣布落实适度宽松政策,推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施,包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调,同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款,强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制,旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期,推动经济高质量发展;5月10日,中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈,为时两天;5月12日,中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》,声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施,对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ;5月20日,中国人民银行公布LPR下调:1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%,5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%,为近半年首次下调。同日,多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率,涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施,延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2)通胀:5 ...
华泰期货流动性日报-20250710
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the market liquidity situation on July 9, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day for different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Plate Liquidity - On July 9, 2025, data on trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding amount, and trading volume of each sector are presented, along with relevant figures [1][2][5] II. Stock Index Plate - On July 9, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 418.574 billion yuan, a 20.99% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1021.622 billion yuan, a 5.75% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 40.83% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On July 9, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 294.282 billion yuan, a 9.73% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 913.952 billion yuan, a 0.23% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 32.18% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On July 9, 2025, the basic metal plate had a trading volume of 494.873 billion yuan, an 18.22% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 497.411 billion yuan, a 1.89% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 117.72%. The precious metal plate had a trading volume of 460.751 billion yuan, a 61.36% increase; the holding amount was 422.967 billion yuan, a 2.11% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 106.46% [1] V. Energy Chemical Plate - On July 9, 2025, the energy chemical plate had a trading volume of 436.344 billion yuan, a 0.30% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 435.610 billion yuan, a 0.12% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 79.88% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On July 9, 2025, the agricultural product plate had a trading volume of 255.696 billion yuan, an 8.48% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 570.105 billion yuan, a 0.37% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 40.11% [1] VII. Black Building Material Plate - On July 9, 2025, the black building material plate had a trading volume of 195.096 billion yuan, a 28.46% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 365.480 billion yuan, a 0.82% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 51.10% [2]
FICC日报:MSC下半月价格下修,远东:欧洲航线价格依然在寻顶-20250710
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:33
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The price of MSC in the second half of July decreased by 200 USD/FEU to 3000 USD/FEU, while the price of Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam slightly increased by 50 USD/FEU to 3000 USD/FEU. The top of the freight rate may have appeared, and the subsequent focus is on whether other shipping companies will follow suit, especially the PA Alliance [3]. - The 8 - month contract freight rate is likely to peak and decline, with a focus on the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies and the game of delivery. The 10 - month contract is a off - season contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season rules, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation [3][4][5]. - The strategy includes a sideways movement of the main contract in the single - side trading, and a long 12 - short 10 and short 10 strategy in the arbitrage trading [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 10, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 76,890.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 38,843.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1353.40, 1190.80, 1332.50, 2012.50, 1390.00, and 1553.70 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - On July 4, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2101.00 USD/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2089.00 USD/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 4124.00 USD/FEU. On July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2258.04 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1557.77 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU. Among them, 44 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 658,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [6]. - The weekly average capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 4 weeks of July was 294,100 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in August was 305,000 TEU. There were 5 blank sailings in July (4 by the OA Alliance and 1 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 blank sailings in August (both by the OA Alliance) [2]. 4. Supply Chain - The Syrian regime and the Syrian Kurdish armed forces held talks in Damascus, and the Syrian regime welcomed cooperation to defend national unity and territorial integrity [2]. - The rumored Maersk overtime ship MAERSK FREEPOT/5920TEU changed its route from the Far East - Europe route to the Far East - South America East route [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy There is no specific content in the provided text that directly elaborates on demand and European economy other than the potential impact on freight rates from factors such as European economic recovery or decline mentioned in the risk section.
新能源及有色金属日报:下游采购积极性逐步增加,铅价震荡上行-20250710
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [4] - Option strategy: Sell put options [5] 2. Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and downstream enterprises are gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with spot procurement starting to pick up. It is recommended to mainly use buying hedging on dips for lead products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data - **Spot**: On July 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.04/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 100 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price rose by 100 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells rose by 50 yuan/ton to 10,575 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On July 9, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,190 yuan/ton and closed at 17,175 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 33,005 lots, down 2,644 lots from the previous trading day, and the holding volume was 52,261 lots, up 644 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,280 yuan/ton and a low of 17,125 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,180 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract for ex - factory; in Hunan, smelters' quotes remained at a discount of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract; in Jiangxi, holders' quotes at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory had difficulty in closing deals; in Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 220 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory. The lead price was in a volatile consolidation, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, with regional transactions in the electrolytic lead market being fair [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 9, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the same period last week. As of July 9, the LME lead inventory was 255,100 tons, a decrease of 2,975 tons from the previous trading day [3].
指数冲高回落,传媒行业领涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's letters to 8 countries about tariff hikes and the promise of more such letters this week, along with the strength of tech giants, led to the full - scale rise of the three major US stock indexes [1]. - In China, the year - on - year increase in CPI and the stabilization of core commodity prices support core inflation, but PPI still faces downward pressure, highlighting the need for "anti - involution" policies [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a moderate volume - increasing correction at a key point, digesting previous profit - taking chips. Technically, it maintained a healthy consolidation pattern, which is a typical benign adjustment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: China's CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, turning positive after 4 consecutive months of decline. Core CPI continued to rise, reaching a 14 - month high with a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the same as last month, and by 3.6% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to last month. Trump's tariff hikes on 8 countries range from 20% to 50%, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff starting from August 1st [1]. - **Spot Market**: A - share indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.13% to close at 3493.05 points, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.16%. Media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and commerce and retail sectors led the gains, while non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.5 trillion yuan. The three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.94% to a record high of 20611.34 points [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis trends were divergent, with IH and IF continuing a slight recovery. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously [1]. Strategy - Trump's continued foreign policy offensive and the strength of technology leading stocks drove the full - scale rise of the three major US stock indexes. In China, the year - on - year increase in CPI and the stabilization of core commodity prices support core inflation, but PPI still faces downward pressure, highlighting the need for "anti - involution" policies. The Shanghai Composite Index's adjustment is a benign one [2]. Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][7][9]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.39%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.84%, the SSE 50 Index decreased 0.33%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.31%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.27% [12]. - **Other Indicators**: Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF were 94,888 (an increase of 27,418) and 256,893 (an increase of 13,588) respectively; for IH, they were 46,496 (an increase of 13,708) and 88,094 (an increase of 2,249); for IC, they were 93,001 (an increase of 37,800) and 234,225 (an increase of 13,286); for IM, they were 217,782 (an increase of 81,468) and 347,389 (an increase of 26,607) [15]. - **Basis**: The basis of futures contracts showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 16.05 (an increase of 4.12) [37]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of different contracts also had various changes, such as the "next - month - current - month" spread of IF with a current value of - 18.00 and a change of - 0.40 [43].