Group 1: Investment Ratings - Apple strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date strategy: Neutral to bearish [8] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm in the short term, and the price of ordinary goods will remain stable. The market should focus on the inventory volume in Shandong and Shanxi and the shipping speed in the western region [2][3] - Red dates: The new red dates are expected to be listed intensively, and the inventory pressure is high. The future market trend depends on the actual consumption at the consumer end [7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of Apple 2601 contract was 9438 yuan/ton, a change of - 132 yuan/ton or - 1.38% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of Red date 2601 contract was 9270 yuan/ton, a change of + 80 yuan/ton or + 0.87% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - Western出库 work continues, with more buyers in western warehouses. Ground transactions are ending, mainly in Shanxi paper - wrapped film area and western towns of Shandong Qixia. The quality of ground goods is declining, and fruit farmers are selling at market prices [2] - The price of high - quality apples in the west is expected to remain stable and firm, and the price of ordinary goods will remain stable [2] Red dates - The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is uneven. The acquisition in Ruoqiang, Hetian and Qiemo is basically over, while that in Aksu and Alar is accelerating. The market adheres to the principle of pricing by quality [6] - The spot price in the sales area is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term [6] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The futures price showed a downward trend yesterday. The western出库 work is advancing, and the warehouse transactions in Gansu and Shaanxi are active. The ground transactions are ending, and the inventory volume is lower than last year [3] - The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed by citrus [3] Red dates - The futures price rose slightly yesterday. The acquisition progress in the main production areas is uneven, and the enterprises' acquisition enthusiasm is average [7] - The acquisition enthusiasm in the sales area has weakened, and the inventory is accumulating. The quality of new dates is better than last year [7] Group 6: Charts - There are multiple charts related to apple and red date prices, futures contracts, yields, consumption, inventory, and shipment volume, with data sources from Steel Union and Huatai Futures Research Institute [10]

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-18 下游装置集中重启带动需求回升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5913元/吨（-4），丙烯华东现货价5900元/吨（+25），丙烯华北现货价5845元/吨（+40）， 丙烯华东基差-13元/吨（+29），丙烯华北基差-45元/吨（+53）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR148美元/吨（-8），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR60美元/吨（-1），进口利润-279元/吨（+25），厂内库存47190吨（-2630）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率44%（+0.59%），生产利润-115元/吨（-40）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+1%），生产利润310 元/吨（+58）；正丁醇开工率83%（-3%），生产利润-186元/吨（-25）；辛醇开工率69%（-2%），生产利润-280元/吨 （-28）；丙烯酸开工率75%（+3%），生产利润561元/吨（-18）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+1%），生产利润-242元/吨（-31）； 酚酮开工率67%（-9%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 局部PDH装置检修提振叠加下游装置重启带来需求 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-18 策略 目前碳酸锂信息面影响较多，乐观的需求刺激支撑价格上行，但矿端可能的复产带来的供应回升需要保持关注。 盘面上看，近期成交量逐步放大，市场炒作情绪浓厚，持仓量增加明显，多空博弈进一步加强。短期来看，市场 维持强势，但考虑到碳酸锂期货价格弹性较大，追高需谨慎。 消息及资金情绪扰动，碳酸锂期货强势涨停 单边：短期观望为主，关注库存与消费拐点及矿端复产情况，择机逢高卖出套保 市场分析 2025-11-17，碳酸锂主力合约2601开于87700元/吨，收于95200元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化9.00%。当日成 交量为1366919手，持仓量为562954手，前一交易日持仓量516778手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5390元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单26953手，较上个交易日变化-217手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价84200-88100元/吨，较前一交易日变化1000元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价83300-84300元/吨，较前一交易日变化1000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1080美元/吨，较前一日变化25美元/吨。据SMM ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [7]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - Although high copper prices significantly suppress consumption, due to tight supply at the mine end and better - than - expected performance of new energy sectors like photovoltaics in the second half of the year, copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On November 17, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 86,640 yuan/ton and closed at 86,450 yuan/ton, a 0.52% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 86,440 yuan/ton and closed at 86,320 yuan/ton, a 0.10% decline from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - On the previous day, SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at 86,300 - 86,720 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 105 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day. The procurement and sales sentiment in the market declined. Shanghai's procurement index was 3.07 and the sales index was 3.22. Good - quality copper resources were in short supply, with a premium of 80 - 120 yuan/ton for the next - month contract. Flat - grade copper with a discount of 50 yuan/ton was quickly traded [2]. Important Information Summary - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signaled a dovish stance, stating that the downside risk to employment has increased and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that the Fed should cut interest rates again in the December meeting. US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset pointed out that the job market showed "mixed signals" [3]. Mining End - On November 16, a serious accident occurred at a semi - industrial copper mine in southeastern Congo (Kinshasa), where a bridge collapse led to about 30 miners' deaths and many injuries. The official death toll may reach 49, with 20 people in critical condition. The accident was caused by military personnel shooting, which led to miners' panic and a stampede [4]. Smelting and Import - Last week, the Yangshan copper premium continued to weaken. The average weekly price of bills of lading was 45.4 US dollars/ton, a 1.4 - dollar decrease from the previous week. The import window remained closed, with a loss of about 850 yuan/ton. The foreign - trade market was sluggish, but there were two areas of structural activity [5]. Consumption - Sichuan Southwest Copper Co., Ltd.'s Phase II expansion project has completed its main construction and entered the final stage. After full operation, the company's total production capacity will reach 170,000 tons. It is expected to achieve a production value of 1.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter and 4.5 billion yuan for the whole year [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 450 tons to 136,050 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 7,135 tons to 56,965 tons. On November 17, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 193,800 tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the previous week [6]. Strategy Copper - Operators can buy on dips for hedging between 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton, and enterprises with selling - hedging needs can operate between 88,500 - 89,000 yuan/ton [7]. Arbitrage - Put on hold [7]. Options - Short put [7].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-11-18 钢材去库加速，钢价震荡运行 钢材：钢材去库加速，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材期货主力合约震荡偏强运行，现货方面，钢材现货成交表现尚可，价格跟随盘面上涨，低 价投机和期现成交为主，刚需偏少。昨日全国建材成交13.36万吨，钢银数据显示，钢材去库幅度环比增加。 供需与逻辑：建材产销环比回落，库存维持去化，供给受到利润压制，基本面有所缓解。板带材矛盾在于高库存 和高产量，仍然需通过减产来化解基本面矛盾。短期价格维持震荡运行，后续观察冬储博弈及原料支撑情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求预期走弱，铁矿高位震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏强运行，现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报盘积极 性一般，报价多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交75.8万吨，环比下跌25.76%。本期全球矿石发运总量大幅增长， 到港量有所下降。 供需与逻辑：目前铁矿石供给维持高位，库存持续增长，同时伴随着钢厂亏损减产，北方钢厂陆续公布检修计划， 铁 ...

期货研究报告|农产品组专题报告 2025-11-18 11 月 USDA 棉花供需报告解读 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 010-64405663 baixuyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 国内方面，国庆后随着采收进度加快，由于南疆部分区域受脱叶剂效果不佳以及天气 变化影响，出现亩产同比减少和衣分偏低的情况，使得市场对于新棉产量预期下滑， 籽棉收购价也震荡走强，推动郑棉期价一度反弹至 13600 元/吨上方。不过盘面上涨后 面临较强的套保压力，且近期新疆产量预期又再度上升，而国内下游旺季特征并不明 显，中美关税利好影响下订单也仅有零星好转。当前进入纺织行业淡季，内地下游需 求开始呈现偏弱态势，纺企对棉花原料随用随采，需求面支撑不足。不过纺纱利润整 体有所改善，且当前成品库存压力尚可，盘面下行空间预计受限。 ◼ 策略 ...

期货研究报告|股指及商品策略专题 2025-11-17 股指、贵金属观点与策略 研究院 联系人 汪雅航 wangyahang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03099648 投资咨询号：Z0019185 蔡劭立 0755-23887993 caishaoli@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 高聪 021-60828524 gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 股指：近期有关部门发布"十五五"规划一些细分领域的指导文件，权益市场长期运行主 线正逐步清晰，长牛行情的趋势无需质疑。短期来看，我国十月经济数据仍在磨底阶段， 中日关系紧张，美国流动性危机尚未过去，受上述海内外多重因素影响，指数呈宽幅震 荡消化态势，市场操作难度依然较高，建议继续通过股指期货进行风险对冲。 黄金：2025-11-14 当周，贵金属延续震荡走势。利率路径方面，美联储内部存在显著分 歧：多名美联储理事释放偏鹰信号；而与此对应的是，美联储理事米兰表示，近期的经 济数据支持了美联储 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-11-17 市场流动性概况 2025-11-14，股指板块成交6491.48亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.99%；持仓金额13272.51亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.03%；成交持仓比为48.47%。 国债板块成交3818.33亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.89%；持仓金额8469.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.50%；成交持 仓比为43.76%。 基本金属板块成交4456.69亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.30%；持仓金额6285.70亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.88%；成 交持仓比为77.35%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 流动性日报 贵金属板块成交9528.06亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.09%；持仓金额4768.19亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.51%；成交 持仓比为261.87%。 能源化工板块成交4594.09亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.26%；持仓金额4595.99亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.25%；成 交持仓比为86.33%。 农产品板块成交3169.38亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.21%；持仓金额6051.76亿元，较上一 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current inventory of lithium carbonate is continuously decreasing, and consumption has certain support. The resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production in the future. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and the mine end resumes production, the inventory may change from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the market may decline at that time [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 13, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 86,500 yuan/ton and closed at 87,840 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.39% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,106,011 lots, and the open interest was 536,514 lots. The previous day's open interest was 528,966 lots. The current basis was -3,370 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 27,508 lots, a change of -779 lots compared to the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,100 - 86,600 yuan/ton, a change of 1,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,500 - 82,500 yuan/ton, a change of 900 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,050 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with the operating rates of both the spodumene end and the salt lake end maintained above 60%. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change [2]. - In the demand aspect, both commercial and passenger new - energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight [2]. - As of November 13, 17 mainstream automobile brands have launched a purchase tax support plan [2]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production increased by 11 tons to 21,545 tons. The total inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons. The consumption end has strong support recently [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude in the short term. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5].

Industry Overview Upstream - Prices of aluminum and copper in the non - ferrous metals sector have rebounded; international oil prices and liquefied natural gas prices are fluctuating [2] Midstream - In the chemical industry, PX prices are rising, while the operating rates of PTA and polyester are low; power plant coal consumption has decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally increased slightly; in the service industry, the film box office is in the off - season, and the number of domestic flights has seasonally increased slightly [3] Macroeconomic Events Production Industry - China is designing a new rare - earth export licensing system, and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out export control work on rare - earth related items in accordance with laws and regulations [1] Service Industry - In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan. At the end of October, M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%; M0 balance was 13.55 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates positive signals such as increased business activity and improved consumer demand [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2161.4 yuan/ton | 0.40% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.5 yuan/kg | 1.25% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8710.0 yuan/ton | 0.11% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14819.5 yuan/ton | - 0.29% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.1 yuan/kg | - 0.60% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 87301.7 yuan/ton | 1.59% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22618.0 yuan/ton | 0.63% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 21933.3 yuan/ton | 2.60% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121150.0 yuan/ton | - 0.03% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17606.3 yuan/ton | 1.51% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of rebar | 3133.0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 794.7 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3302.5 yuan/ton | - 0.08% | | | Spot price of glass | 14.0 yuan/square meter | - 1.06% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14883.3 yuan/ton | 1.82% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 772.0 | - 0.58% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 58.5 dollars/barrel | - 1.86% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 62.7 dollars/barrel | - 1.28% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4206.0 yuan/ton | - 1.91% | | | Coal price | 834.0 yuan/ton | 1.21% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4591.6 yuan/ton | 0.67% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6988.3 yuan/ton | 0.02% | | | Spot price of urea | 1630.0 yuan/ton | 2.03% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1214.3 yuan/ton | 0.89% | | Real estate | Cement price index | 136.4 | - 0.16% | | | Building materials composite index | 112.3 points | 0.42% | | | Concrete price index | 90.8 points | - 0.14% | [38]