农产品日报 | 2025-09-23 近期市场资讯，西部早熟富士基本结束，其他中晚熟品种陆续交易，采青富士价格高于去年，目前尚未大量上市; 晚熟富士零星脱袋，大面积脱袋或等25号左右山东产区红将军交易至中后期，小单车采购积极性尚可，库存富士 成交放缓，差货价格偏弱，客商拿货多以好货及性价比很高的货源为主。陕西延安洛川产区早熟富士70#以上市场 主流价格3.8-4.1元/斤，一般货3.5-3.7元/斤。中秋王70#以上主流4.2-4.3元/斤，秦脆70#以上主流4.8-5.2元/斤。山东 栖霞产区果农80#以上统货2.1-3.0元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.3-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.0元/斤。广东批发市场苹 果到车量较昨日增加，日内槎龙批发市场到车37车左右，市场山东80#晚富士筐装价格主流3.8-4元/斤，箱装4.5-5.5 元/斤，实际成交以质论价。洛川嘎啦筐装价格小幅回落，70#起步4.0-5.5元/斤，精品果6-7元/斤。前期弘前富士4-4.5 元/斤，好货6-7元/斤。近期到车量较前期略有增量，整体走货一般，好货走货尚可，中转库出现积压。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价微幅收涨，西部早富士交 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][7] Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the pre - festival stocking may provide temporary support for soybean prices, but the upcoming large - scale listing of new soybeans in the Northeast may impact the Guanzhong market, and the supply pressure in the Hubei and Hunan regions is increasing. The market is generally bearish on the future soybean price trend [1][3] - For peanuts, the supply is gradually increasing but not yet in large quantities, the supply of high - quality goods is limited, the traditional festival stocking market is lackluster, the demand from the peanut oil terminal has not increased significantly, and attention should be paid to the price - supporting effect of oil mills' subsequent purchases [4][5][6] Market Analysis Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3912.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan/ton or +0.20% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 308, down 8 or 32.14% from the previous day. The new season soybeans in the Northeast have started to be sporadically listed, with the current purchase price of raw grains between 1.9 - 1.95 yuan/jin, and the price of low - protein tower grains about 2 yuan/jin. The market trading is light, and most grain trading enterprises are waiting to buy after the soybeans are concentratedly listed at the end of this month [1][2] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2511 contract yesterday was 7806.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00 yuan/ton or - 0.36% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8380.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan/ton or +0.60% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK11 + 394.00, up 28.00 or +7.65% month - on - month. The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 4.17 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin [4] Market Information Summary Soybeans - The new season soybeans in the Northeast have started to be sporadically listed, showing the characteristic of "high - quality products at high prices". The market trading is light, and most enterprises are waiting to buy after the concentrated listing at the end of this month. The market is generally bearish on the future soybean price trend. The prices of tower grains in various regions in Heilongjiang remained flat compared with the previous day [2] Peanuts - The new peanut listing areas continue to expand but have not yet been in large - scale supply. The supply of high - quality goods is small. Due to high moisture or large quality differences, traders are cautious in purchasing. Only some oil mills are making small - scale purchases, and the transaction rate is low. The terminal demand for peanut oil has not increased significantly [5][6] Strategy - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][7]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures [9] Group 2: Core Views - After the interest rate cut, non - ferrous commodities generally corrected. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable, domestic consumption is recovering, and exports are good. The social inventory is at a relatively low level and is showing signs of reaching a peak. For alumina, the supply surplus is difficult to resolve, and the current price has cost support. For aluminum alloy, downstream consumption is recovering, but the supply is still excessive, and the spread repair with aluminum prices may face obstacles [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Aluminum Spot - On September 22, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,710 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,755 yuan/ton, closed at 20,745 yuan/ton, a change of - 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,717 lots, and the position was 236,067 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of September 22, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 638,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 70,761 tons, a change of - 1,198 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 513,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On September 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,970 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,940 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,020 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,170 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,175 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,950 yuan/ton, closed at 2,934 yuan/ton, a change of - 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.07%. The highest price was 2,961 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,906 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 311,040 lots, and the position was 317,523 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 22, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,100 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,800 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,341 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 159 yuan/ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bullish [4] Core View of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed a trend of stabilizing and rebounding after a decline. With the upcoming National Day holiday, the downstream restocking enthusiasm may be stimulated. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging in the next week, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.72 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 24,370 lots, a change of - 11,605 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position was 27,432 lots, a change of - 5,311 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,170 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,075 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,190 yuan/ton and closed at 17,165 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters mainly shipped on long - term contracts, and some holders quoted at a discount of 150 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract for ex - factory prices. In Hunan, brand lead smelters also mainly shipped on long - term contracts, with few quotes for scattered orders. Traders quoted at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2510 contract or 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract for ex - factory prices. In Anhui and Jiangxi, holders quoted at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory prices. The lead futures fluctuated slightly lower, smelters' quotes were relatively firm, and downstream battery enterprises made small - scale bargain purchases after the pre - holiday stockpiling, with the trading volume in some markets being rather light [2] Inventory - On September 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 55,000 tons, a change of - 12,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 22, the LME lead inventory was 221,675 tons, a change of 1,375 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Strategy - It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging in the next week, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-23 进口货源持续到港 铜价暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-09-22，沪铜主力合约开于 79950元/吨，收于 80160元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.31%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 80080元/吨，收于 80100 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.07%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日电解铜现货升水小幅回落，SMM1#铜均价80100-80350元/吨，主力合约升水60元/吨（跌10元）。 沪铜早盘冲高80300元/吨后回落，于80080-80160元/吨区间震荡，进口亏损扩大至500元/吨。周末进口集中到货推 高销售情绪（指数3.19），但铜价重返80000元/吨压制采购意愿（指数3.11）。好铜升水100-120元/吨，平水铜成交于 平水至升水20元/吨。预计进口持续到货将抑制升水上行，成交或围绕平水附近展开。 重要资讯汇总： 利率方面，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆强调，目前利率水平已处于"略微紧缩与中性之间"，未来降息的空间有限； 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，他目前不支持进一步降息，因为"通胀已长时间维持在过高水平"；美联储理事 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for industrial silicon; short-term range operation for polysilicon [3][9] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the futures market declined due to the closing of long positions last week. The market is influenced by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies on capacity exit, the market may rise as the valuation is low [3] - For polysilicon, the market is affected by weak reality and strong policy expectations. Recently, it has returned to the fundamentals of warehouse receipt delivery logic, leading to a weak operation. It is still fluctuating within the shock range. If the market corrects significantly, polysilicon can be bought at low prices in the medium to long term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 9,285 yuan/ton and closed at 8,950 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous settlement. The main contract held 285,490 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,802, a decrease of 72 from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. In August 2025, the export volume was 76,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 18%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 491,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] Consumption Analysis - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import volume of primary polysiloxane was 48,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.43%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 373,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.41%. The import volume was 7,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.16%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 63,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.27% [2] Strategy - The spot price increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to subsequent capacity exit policies. If there is policy support, the market may rise [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 significantly corrected, opening at 52,925 yuan/ton and closing at 50,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.63% from the previous day. The main contract held 123,917 lots, and the trading volume was 253,135 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The N-type material was 50.30 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the n-type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg [4] Inventory and Production - The polysilicon inventory was 204,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.80%. The silicon wafer inventory was 16.87 GW, a month-on-month increase of 1.93%. The weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.50%. The silicon wafer production was 13.92 GW, a month-on-month increase of 0.29% [6] Strategy - The polysilicon market is affected by weak reality and strong policy expectations. It is currently in a shock range. Attention should be paid to the support level of 50,000 yuan/ton and the spot price. If the market corrects significantly, it can be bought at low prices in the medium to long term [7]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-23 国内消费淡季转旺季，海外持续去库难缓解 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为50.91美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日-40元/吨至21950元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-60元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-30元/吨至21950元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-70元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日-40元/吨至21950元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-60元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-22沪锌主力合约开于21960元/吨，收于22090元/吨，较前一交易日30元/吨，全天交易日成交 140526手，全天交易日持仓130425手，日内价格最高点达到22095元/吨，最低点达到21890元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-09-22，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.70万吨，较上期变化-0.15万吨。截止2025-09-22，LME 锌库存为46825吨，较上一交易日变化-1000吨。 市场分析 国内外走势依旧偏离，内外比值持续阔达，海外库存持续去库，升水走高，仓单风险进一步增加，对价格形成有 利支撑。国内方面，消费呈现较为明显的淡季转旺季的情况，下游 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The current short - term supply - demand pattern of the lithium carbonate market is favorable, with inventory continuously decreasing and the futures market having certain support. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate. However, after the resumption of production at the mining end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 74,580 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 73,420 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.05% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 396,645 lots, and the open interest was 271,624 lots, a decrease of 9,640 lots from the previous trading day. The current basis was 430 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,909 lots, a decrease of 575 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,200 - 74,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 - 72,200 yuan/ton, also an increase of 350 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 833 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and seeing, with the overall market trading activity remaining stable. As it was the peak demand season, downstream material factories had certain inventory - building needs before the National Day and were more willing to purchase at relatively low prices [1]. - In August, China imported 22,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 25%. Among them, 15,600 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 71% of the total imports, and 4,000 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 19%. From January to August, China's cumulative imports of lithium carbonate were 153,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.5% [1]. - In August, China's lithium spodumene imports were about 619,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.5%, equivalent to 56,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). From Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe, the combined import volume accounted for 70.2%, with some showing significant decreases: Australia's imports were 212,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.5%; Nigeria's imports were 105,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6%; Zimbabwe's imports were 118,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84%. Imports from Mali and Brazil increased significantly, with 73,000 tons and 18,000 tons respectively, due to concentrated shipments [2]. Strategy - Futures market: It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate. After the resumption of production at the mining end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline. For unilateral trading, short - term range operations can be carried out, and selling hedging can be done at high prices. There are no strategies for options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures operations [3][4].

板块低位运行，等待新的驱动 农产品日报 | 2025-09-23 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13610元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨，幅度-0.80%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15146元/吨，较前一日变动-52元/吨，现货基差CF01+1536，较前一日变动+58；3128B棉全国均价15224元/吨， 较前一日变动-59元/吨，现货基差CF01+1614，较前一日变动+51。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，9月12日至9月18日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验2.68吨，均为陆 地棉，84.2%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求；累计分级检验12.10万吨，89.1%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。根据美 国商业部数据显示，2025年7月美国的服装及服装配饰零售额(季调)为269.08亿美元，同比增加6.44%（去年同期向 下调整后为252.79亿美元），环比增加1.43%（上月向上调整后为265.29亿美元）。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏弱震荡。国际方面，9月USDA报告调增全球棉花产量和消费量，期初库存和期末库存继续调减， 全球库存创近四年低 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-09-23 美联储内部分歧加剧 降息路径不确定性提升 市场分析 利率方面，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆强调，目前利率水平已处于"略微紧缩与中性之间"，未来降息的空间有限； 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，他目前不支持进一步降息，因为"通胀已长时间维持在过高水平"；美联储理事 米兰表示，除非情况有变，否则将继续力促降息，愿意再次投反对票。地缘方面，法国正式承认巴勒斯坦国；至 此，联合国193个会员国中已有152个国家承认巴勒斯坦国，而联合国安理会五常中只剩美国未承认巴勒斯坦国。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-09-22，沪金主力合约开于831.02元/克，收于846.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.92%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于847.5元/克，收于850.98元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.53%。 2025-09-22，沪银主力合约开于9971.00元/千克，收于10317.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动3.47%。当日成交量 为789654手，持仓量为504051手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于10276元/千克，收于10348元 ...