1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel variety, the impact of macro - events has basically subsided, nickel prices have returned to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and an unchanged oversupply pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel variety, with eleven consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, the downside space for stainless - steel prices is limited. However, the overall demand recovery is not obvious, and it is expected to show an interval oscillation trend [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,220 yuan/ton and closed at 121,400 yuan/ton, a change of 0.07% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 66,099 (+3,446) lots, and the open interest was 45,068 (-5,353) lots. After the night - session opening, it oscillated slightly around the previous trading day's settlement price. After the day - session opening, stimulated by the news of continued national subsidies over the weekend, it rose slightly to the daily high of 122,110 yuan/ton but then quickly declined, and finally closed with a slight increase of 80 yuan [1] - **Nickel Ore**: A new round of quotations in the nickel ore market has been released. The FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines' CNC mine is 31. Affected by typhoon weather, nickel ore unloading in some coastal areas is blocked. Philippine mines maintain firm quotations. In the shipping aspect, mines in areas like Surigao are not affected. Downstream iron plants are still making losses and maintain a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market remains in a pattern of continuous supply surplus. The domestic trade benchmark price in September (Phase II) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is currently at +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 123,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is average, and downstream buyers mainly purchase as needed. The spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel of various brands are slightly adjusted stably, and some delivery brands show a slight discount. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel remains unchanged at 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains unchanged at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,536 (-307) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 228,900 (+456) tons [2] Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly interval operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 138,615 (+21,690) lots, and the open interest was 130,017 (-4,171) lots. After the night - session opening, it oscillated upward. In the day - session, it further rose close to 13,000 yuan/ton and then slightly declined. The closing price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. Overall, the restart of national subsidies in China has improved the demand expectation for stainless steel, resulting in a relatively strong price trend today [3] - **Spot**: It is currently the traditional consumption peak season, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel has slightly recovered. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand is not obvious, and the monthly stainless - steel production has also increased simultaneously, resulting in the spot price not showing an obvious upward trend. Downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, and the market is filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 340 to 640 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-09-23 现货小幅上涨，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3034元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，幅度+0.66%；菜粕2601合约2528元/吨，较前 日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.24%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M01-14， 较前日变动+10；江苏地区豆粕现货2940元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-94，较前日变动-10；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2960元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-74，较前日变动-10。福建地区菜粕现货价格2700 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM01+172，较前日变动+14。 近期市场资讯，加拿大统计局数据显示，2025/26年度迄今，加拿大油菜籽出口进度偏慢。截至9月7日当周，加拿 大油菜籽出口量4.6万吨，上周为4.7万吨；2025/26年度迄今油菜籽出口量57.5万吨，同比减少60.3%，上周同比减 少53.4%。 市场分析 整体来看，当前中美和谈仍未有最终结果，但传递了一定的积极信号，未来需持续关注。另一 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-09-23 资金面呵护，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 市场面：（6）收盘价：2025-09-22，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.40元、105.77元、107.98元、115.13元。涨跌 幅：TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为0.04%、0.13%、0.20%和 0.22%。（7）TS、TF、T和TL净基差均值分别为-0.012 元、-0.029元、-0.032元和0.048元。 综合来看：受股市强势行情带动，风险偏好回升对债市形成压制，同时美联储进一步降息预期存在、全球贸易不 确定性上升增加了外资流入的不确定性。整体看，债市在稳增长与宽松预期间震荡运行，短期关注月底政策信号。 策略 单边：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡。 套利：关注2512基差回落。 套保：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保。 风险 流动性快速紧缩风险 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report is the second in the series of in - depth studies on chemical plants. It analyzes the upstream - downstream matching of the polyester industry chain and the marginal plants of futures varieties such as PX, PTA, PR, and PF. PTA enterprises with PX or polyester matching account for 91.6% of the production capacity, PX with downstream matching accounts for 82.0% of the production capacity, and polyester with upstream matching accounts for 72.1% of the production capacity. The marginal plants are identified from aspects like old plants, small single - line production capacity or enterprise scale, high production process costs, and long distances for raw material procurement or product sales [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Upstream - Downstream Matching Analysis 3.1.1 Group - Based Upstream - Downstream Matching As of the end of July 2025, China's PX, PTA, and polyester production capacities were 4367, 9171.5, and 8894 tons respectively. The theoretical annual PX gap was 1640 tons, and the theoretical annual PTA surplus was 1567 tons. PTA enterprises with PX or polyester matching accounted for 91.6% of the production capacity, PX with downstream matching accounted for 82.0% of the production capacity, and polyester with upstream matching accounted for 72.1% of the production capacity. The enterprises in the polyester industry chain can be classified into four types: those with complete PX/PTA/polyester matching; those mainly with polyester and PTA matching but little PX matching; those with only PX and PTA matching; and those with relatively single matching [10][11]. 3.1.2 Region - Based Upstream - Downstream Matching The production capacity of the polyester industry chain is concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, Fujian, etc. Except for Shandong having a large surplus of PX for sale, most other regions have PX production capacity gaps or are basically balanced. Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Liaoning have the largest PX gaps. In terms of PTA, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have large PTA production capacity gaps, while Liaoning, Guangdong, and other regions have PTA surpluses [12][15][16]. 3.2 PX Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, China's total PX production capacity was 4367 tons, with an effective operating capacity of 4254 tons. PX production capacity is mainly distributed in Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, etc. The marginal PX plants are identified from aspects such as production time, single - set scale, and production process. Old plants (over 20 years in production), small - scale plants (less than 100 tons), and medium - short - process plants (accounting for 17.4% of the total production capacity) are more likely to be marginal plants [20][23][30]. 3.3 PTA Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PTA production capacity was 9171.5 tons, with 836.5 tons having been shut down for more than half a year. PTA production capacity is mainly distributed in coastal areas such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Fujian. The marginal PTA plants are mainly those with a production capacity of less than 200 tons and put into production before 2020, with a total capacity of 1295 tons, accounting for 14.1% [34][40][41]. 3.4 PR Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PR production capacity was 2168 tons, mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Hainan, and Liaoning. The top four bottle - chip manufacturers account for 78% of the total production capacity. The marginal bottle - chip plants are those that meet one or more of the following conditions: long production time, small plant scale, lack of upstream - downstream matching ability of the group, and high freight costs due to long distances for raw material procurement or product sales. A total of 326 tons of production capacity may be marginal plants, accounting for 15% [44][51][54]. 3.5 PF Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PF production capacity was 968.5 tons, mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian. The top four short - fiber manufacturers account for 46% of the total production capacity. Plants with a production time of over 20 years are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Fujian. Small - scale plants (less than 20 tons) are more likely to be marginal plants. The difference in processing costs between new and old plants is not significant, and the survival of old plants depends more on market dynamic balance [55][57][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The development of biofuel industries in India, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore is driven by the need for energy transition, emission reduction, and enhanced energy security. Each country has distinct development models based on its resource endowment and policy orientation, with biofuels showing significant potential in replacing traditional fossil fuels, but also facing various challenges [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Biofuel Industry Development Background - The energy demand in South and Southeast Asia is rising due to population growth, economic development, and urbanization. To meet emission reduction targets and enhance energy autonomy, countries are turning to biofuels, with different development routes based on their resource endowments [9] Fuel Ethanol Industry Analysis India: E20 Target Achieved Ahead of Schedule, with Controversies and Opportunities - India has become a major global producer and consumer of fuel ethanol, achieving significant economic and environmental benefits. Policy is the core driver, with the E20 target advanced to 2025. However, challenges such as raw material supply and vehicle compatibility remain. The government is promoting raw material diversification and capacity expansion, but corn price increases may cause inflation, and raw material supply is subject to climate and food security risks [11][20][21] Thailand: Accelerated Development of Electric Vehicles, Fuel Ethanol to Gradually Yield - Thailand is a major producer and consumer of fuel ethanol in Southeast Asia, with development driven by policies. However, the rapid rise of electric vehicles is squeezing fuel ethanol demand. In the short term, fuel ethanol still plays a transitional role, but in the long term, the industry may need to explore exports or alternative uses. Raw material supply is affected by weather, and future capacity may need to be digested through new channels [30][31][33] Biodiesel Industry Analysis Malaysia: Blending Policy Implementation Encountered Hurdles, B20 Temporarily Implemented Locally - Malaysia's biodiesel industry, based on palm oil, has been steadily developing under policy promotion but faces challenges such as production fluctuations and shrinking export markets. The B20 and B30 plans have been delayed due to infrastructure and investment issues. The industry relies on domestic palm oil resources, and current production capacity is about 2.7 billion liters, with efforts being made to upgrade facilities and develop HVO [37][38][47] Singapore: Explosive Growth in Demand for Bio - Marine Fuels, Promising Future - Singapore, as the world's largest marine fuel bunkering port, has seen a rapid increase in demand for bio - marine fuels. Policy goals have created growth space for biofuel consumption, and market - driven demand has led to a significant increase in sales. An investment project is under construction to expand production capacity [48][49][52] Sustainable Aviation Fuel Industry Analysis SAF is in the Initial Stage with Great Development Potential - The development of SAF is crucial for the aviation industry to reduce carbon emissions. India, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore have all set SAF blending targets and are taking measures in policy, technology, and capacity building. However, challenges such as high investment and high prices need to be addressed [54][55][56] Impact of Biofuel Development on Petroleum Consumption - The development of biofuel industries in the four countries has effectively replaced traditional fossil fuel consumption. In the fuel ethanol sector, India has achieved significant substitution results, while Thailand's substitution effect may peak and then decline. In the biodiesel sector, Malaysia is steadily replacing traditional diesel, and Singapore's bio - marine fuel demand is growing rapidly. In the aviation sector, SAF is expected to replace a considerable amount of traditional aviation kerosene in the future [61] Summary and Outlook - Biofuels are becoming an important alternative to traditional fossil fuels. The four countries have different development models, with India excelling in fuel ethanol, Thailand facing challenges in ethanol development, Malaysia making progress in biodiesel with implementation bottlenecks, and Singapore having a bright future in bio - marine fuels. All four countries have potential in SAF. In the future, India's ethanol industry has prospects but needs to address challenges, Thailand's ethanol may yield to electric vehicles, Malaysia's biodiesel has potential but needs to solve problems, and bio - marine fuels and SAF will be more important, with Singapore leading in the bio - marine fuel market [67][68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for iron ore is "sideways" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - High iron ore prices lead to relatively loose supply, high hot metal production shows strong consumption resilience, and overall inventory remains at a medium level [2] - Considering downstream pre - holiday stockpiling, iron ore prices will remain volatile in the short term. The supply from Simandou will exert significant pressure on long - term prices. Attention should be paid to the changes in floating cargo volume and pre - holiday stockpiling [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated strongly. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was $106.25/ton, up $0.85/ton week - on - week, a rise of 0.81%. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 799.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, a rise of 0.63% [1][5] Supply - The latest data from Mysteel shows that the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.73 million tons this period, an increase of 8.17 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.62 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons week - on - week [1][8] Demand - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.98%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 5.75 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points week - on - week and 6.29 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 48.91 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.0047 million tons week - on - week and 0.1764 million tons year - on - year [1][10][11] Inventory - Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports in the country was 138.0108 million tons, a decrease of 0.4839 million tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.3917 million tons, an increase of 0.0789 million tons week - on - week [1][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) for various stock index options on September 18, 2025. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On September 18, 2025, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: 110.08 million contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, 153.29 million for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), 216.85 million for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), 8.99 million for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, 317.68 million for GEM ETF options, 9.43 million for SSE 50 stock index options, 18.08 million for CSI 300 stock index options, and 70.83 million for CSI 1000 options [1]. - The detailed trading volume breakdown shows that for SSE 50 ETF options, the call volume was 144.37 million, the put volume was 113.19 million, and the total volume was 257.56 million. For CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), the call volume was 125.62 million, the put volume was 138.57 million, and the total volume was 264.19 million, etc. [21]. Option PCR - The PCR data shows that the SSE 50 ETF option's turnover PCR was 0.87 with a +0.21 change compared to the previous period, and the position PCR was 0.73 with a - 0.06 change. For CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), the turnover PCR was 0.70 with a +0.17 change, and the position PCR was 1.10 with a -0.07 change, etc. [2][29]. Option VIX - The VIX data indicates that the SSE 50 ETF option's VIX was 20.04% with a -0.31% change compared to the previous period. The CSI 300 ETF option (Shanghai market) VIX was 20.57% with a -1.46% change. For example, the GEM ETF option VIX was 39.89% with a -1.13% change [3][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is fluctuating with the macro - environment. Supply is still abundant due to new production, demand shows some improvement but export expectations in Q4 are weak, inventory is high, and there is room to compress profits. The futures price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is falling. Chlor - alkali enterprise operating rates are slightly down. Demand support is loosening, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support still exists, and the profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3] Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4923 yuan/ton (- 50), the East China basis is - 173 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the South China basis is - 103 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1] - **Spot price**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (- 30), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4820 yuan/ton (- 30) [1] - **Upstream production profit**: The semi - coke price is 640 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2840 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is 38 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 502 yuan/ton (- 81), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 672 yuan/ton (- 1), and the PVC export profit is - 8.0 dollars/ton (+ 4.1) [1] - **Inventory and operating rate**: PVC factory inventory is 31.0 tons (- 0.6), PVC social inventory is 53.2 tons (- 0.1), the PVC calcium carbide - based operating rate is 76.91% (- 3.38%), the PVC ethylene - based operating rate is 72.00% (- 5.20%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 75.43% (- 3.96%) [1] - **Downstream orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 68.9 tons (+ 1.8) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures and basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2580 yuan/ton (- 28), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 80 yuan/ton (- 35) [1] - **Spot price**: 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 800 yuan/ton (- 20), and 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1270 yuan/ton (- 30) [2] - **Upstream production profit**: The profit of a single caustic soda variety in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (- 63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 685.8 yuan/ton (- 22.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 259.78 yuan/ton (- 72.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1437.25 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - **Inventory and operating rate**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 37.83 tons (+ 2.15), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.18 tons (- 0.03), and the caustic soda operating rate is 81.90% (- 1.50%) [2] - **Downstream operating rate**: The operating rate of alumina is 85.21% (+ 0.83%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 65.76% (+ 0.00%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.52% (+ 1.75%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Some enterprises are under maintenance, but new production capacity is increasing, and supply remains abundant [3] - Demand: Downstream product operating rates are rising, and enterprises maintain rigid demand procurement. Export orders are increasing, but Q4 export expectations are weak due to Indian policies [3] - Inventory: Social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high [3] - Price: The futures price is under pressure from high - level hedging, and attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution policies [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: The operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises is slightly down, and production may decrease slightly. New production capacity in Tianjin Bohua has reached full production [3] - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but external orders have decreased. High - price sales are difficult, and there is a fear of high prices in non - aluminum sectors. The inventory in Shandong is accumulating, and the market price is falling [3] - Price: The spot price is falling, and cost support still exists. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm before the holidays and the production start - up rhythm of Guangxi alumina [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Inter - commodity trading**: No strategy provided [4] Caustic Soda - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: Consider a long - short spread strategy for SH01 - 05 when the spread is low [5] - **Inter - commodity trading**: No strategy provided [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation pace at ports has slowed down. After the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, the port demand has rebounded, but the subsequent arrival pressure remains high, and the key variable is when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [2]. - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production start - up in the inland has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol factories remains low, and the overall situation is that the inland is stronger than the ports. The window for port - to - inland methanol flow is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices [3]. - Among traditional downstream industries, the high inventory pressure of acetic acid has dragged down its production start - up, the export of MTBE has improved, driving its start - up rate to rise from a low level, and the formaldehyde start - up rate has remained stable. Overall, the start - up rates of acetic acid and MTBE are still low [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 415 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 785 yuan/ton (- 25). Inner Mongolia's north - line methanol price is 2090 yuan/ton (- 25), and the basis is 344 yuan/ton (+ 5); Inner Mongolia's south - line is 2140 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2355 yuan/ton (- 35), Henan is 2200 yuan/ton (- 20), and Hebei is 2310 yuan/ton (unchanged). The inventory of inland factories is 340,480 tons (- 2080), and the inventory of northwest factories is 225,500 tons (+ 4200). The pending orders of inland factories are 233,776 tons (- 16,947), and those of northwest factories are 115,700 tons (- 20,900) [1]. - **Ports**: The price of methanol in Taicang is 2247 yuan/ton (- 35), the basis is - 99 yuan/ton (- 5), CFR China is 264 US dollars/ton (- 1), and the import price difference in East China is - 19 yuan/ton (+ 2). The total port inventory is 1,557,770 tons (+ 7440), with Jiangsu at 787,000 tons (- 17,000), Zhejiang at 286,900 tons (+ 1400), and Guangdong at 303,000 tons (+ 29,000). The downstream MTO start - up rate is 83.81% (+ 2.24%) [2]. - **Regional Price Differences**: The price differences between different regions have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest is 10 yuan/ton (+ 25), and the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is - 393 yuan/ton (- 10) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Ports**: The inventory accumulation rhythm has slowed down. The restart of MTO Xingxing has supported the recovery of port demand, but the subsequent arrival pressure is still large, and the key lies in the Iranian winter inspection plan [2]. - **Inland**: The lowest point of coal - based methanol start - up has passed, but it will not reach a high level until later. The inland factory inventory is low, and the inland is stronger than the ports. The port - to - inland flow window is important for port prices. Traditional downstream industries have different start - up situations, with acetic acid and MTBE start - up rates still low [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: No strategy is provided [4]. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when it is low [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - After the Fed's interest rate cut met expectations, the market returned to fundamental trading. Attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and industry profit conditions. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has slightly improved, while that of plates has weakened, and prices may face pressure [1]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures fluctuated weakly. Spot steel transactions were generally weak, with a significant decline compared to the previous period. Rebar spot prices held firm, and the basis widened. Hot - rolled coil prices generally followed the decline of the futures. The national building materials transaction volume was 87,900 tons. This week, rebar production decreased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. Hot - rolled coil production slightly increased, inventory grew, and apparent demand declined [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Currently, rebar supply has contracted, and demand has recovered from a low level, with a slight improvement in the supply - demand pattern. However, the downstream has not improved, and the peak season remains to be verified. Plate demand has weakened, and the fundamental supply - demand pattern has deteriorated, with prices likely to be under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The global shipment of iron ore has significantly increased, pig iron production has continued to rise, and inventory has slightly declined, remaining at a medium level. Considering the pre - holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience [3]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports slightly declined. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly purchased on a just - in - time basis. The national main port iron ore cumulative trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23.00% decline from the previous day. Forward spot cumulative trading volume was 2.08 million tons (12 transactions), a 115.54% increase from the previous day (with a mine trading volume of 410,000 tons) [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The global shipment of iron ore has significantly increased, pig iron production has continued to rise, and inventory has slightly declined, remaining at a medium level. Considering the pre - holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating volume on arrivals and the pre - holiday restocking rhythm of steel mills [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Before the National Day, downstream restocking led to a significant increase in coking coal and coke inventory. It is expected that coking coal and coke will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. For coke, coke enterprises' production was stable at a high level, and the supply side had no obvious inventory pressure. For coking coal, as the double festivals approached, downstream enterprises began pre - holiday restocking, and coal prices rebounded by 20 - 80 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal in the spot market dropped to 1,000 yuan/ton. Coking coal and coke inventory increased compared to the previous period, indicating strong downstream restocking willingness. Coking coal production growth slowed down, and coke production slightly increased [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, price cuts have been implemented, and supply is relatively stable, while downstream rigid demand remains resilient. For coking coal, pre - holiday restocking demand has been released, and coking coal inventory has continued to decline. Coupled with domestic policy expectations, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile in unilateral trading. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coal demand is improving, and prices are rising. In the short term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the prices of main - producing areas continued to rise. Currently, the stocking demand for chemical and civil use is good, terminal demand has increased, and combined with the increase in the external purchase price of large groups, the transportation demand of surrounding coal yards and stations has been released. Some coal mines have low inventory, and the number of coal - pulling trucks has increased, leading to continuous price increases. In the port market, the sentiment is good, and the transaction price center has moved up. Some traders are more reluctant to sell due to shipping cost support and tight resources, and the prices of some high - quality coal varieties have increased. In the import market, the tender price of imported coal continued to rise, the decline of domestic coal prices narrowed, low - calorie coal prices rebounded, and the price difference between domestic and foreign coal shrank [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Production area supply is gradually recovering, and the daily consumption of thermal coal has decreased. In the short term, prices will fluctuate. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - **Strategy**: Not provided