农产品日报 | 2025-07-10 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7743元/吨，较前一日变动+85元/吨，幅度+1.11%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+457，较前一日变动-85；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1857，较前一日变动-85。 近期市场资讯，苹果山东产区库内一般质量货源价格小幅回落0.1-0.3元/斤，优质货源价格稳定，降价后整体走货 依旧不快，客商寻货积极性不高，部分果农略有急售情绪。目前大荔、万荣等产区早熟果正常收购，价格稳定。 陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。山西万荣产区华硕、 光果嘎啦陆续上市收购，华硕70#以上青果参考价2.4元/斤，20%以上红度参考价2.8-3元/斤附近，以质论价。山东 栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.8-3.3元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.7-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3. ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - After the OPEC meeting's production increase was confirmed, crude oil prices remained firm, and the spot fundamentals were decent. The market expected that OPEC's actual production increase would be far less than the quota. With demand in the peak season, the pressure from new supply was limited. Thus, the unilateral prices of FU and LU were supported by the cost side, and there was limited downside in the short term [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market structure was weak recently, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads declining, indicating relatively abundant spot supply. The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil might decline year-on-year, and Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil shipments had increased significantly. The high-sulfur fuel oil crack spread might need further adjustment to attract incremental demand, and the market structure would find new support after full adjustment [1]. - In the short term, the supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil was limited, but there was no shortage expectation. From June, domestic low-sulfur fuel oil production might gradually recover from a low level, and Brazil's supply to the Asia-Pacific region had also increased. In the medium term, the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry would gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil. Overall, the low-sulfur fuel oil market lacked a continuous upward driver [2]. - Currently, the market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil was slightly stronger than that of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the structural contradiction had not completely reversed, and there was no room for a significant increase in the high-low sulfur spread [2]. 3) Strategy Summary - **Cross-variety**: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - **Cross-period**: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - **Futures-spot**: None [3] - **Options**: None [3] 4) Market Data Charts - Charts related to Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap near-month contracts, and near-month spreads, as well as domestic fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures contract closing prices, index closing prices, near-month contract prices, near-month spreads, and trading volume and open interest are provided [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The weather in the US soybean producing areas remains favorable, with temperatures in July being temporarily lower and sufficient precipitation. Multiple institutions expect the US soybean production to continue rising, leading to significant supply pressure [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,678.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a环比 increase of 34 yuan or 0.39%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,920.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 26.00 yuan or 0.33%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 88.00 yuan or 0.92% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,730.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 110.00 yuan or 1.28%, with a spot basis of P09 + 52.00, a环比 increase of 76.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,100.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 180.00, a环比 increase of 36.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,640.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 90.00 yuan or 0.92%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 130.00, a环比 decrease of 2.00 yuan [1] Market News - BMI predicts that after a 1.6% year - on - year decline in the 2024/25 season, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to partially recover in the 2025/26 season, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons. However, domestic consumption in Malaysia in the 2025/26 season is expected to drop 2% from 39 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 38 million tons. StoneX analysts believe that the production outlook for US soybeans continues to improve due to good weather. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed, Argentine soybean oil, etc., have different price adjustments. Import soybean premium quotes also show some changes [2] Group 4: Charts Information - The report includes 30 charts related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial PPI is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations in the upstream [1] - The implementation of employment - policy tools in the service industry should be monitored [1] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - In June 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with urban areas up 0.1%, rural areas down 0.2%, food prices down 0.3%, non - food prices up 0.1%, consumer goods prices down 0.2%, and service prices up 0.5%. The national consumer price in the first half of the year decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, the national industrial producer's ex - factory price decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the industrial producer's purchase price decreased by 4.3% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month [1] 3.1.2. Service Industry - The General Office of the State Council issued a notice to further increase the support for stable employment policies, emphasizing strengthening political responsibility, tracking policy implementation, improving policy tools, strengthening fund supervision, and conducting employment impact assessments [1] 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have rebounded [1] - Chemical: The price of PTA has declined [1] 3.2.2. Mid - stream - Chemical: The PX operating rate has seasonally declined slightly and is at the median level in the past three years [2] 3.2.3. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [2] 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spread of the electronics industry has slightly rebounded recently [3] 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical have different degrees of changes from last year to this week, with specific data shown in the table [49] 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various products in industries such as agriculture, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different degrees of year - on - year changes, with specific data shown in the table [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has eased, and the black market has shifted from a volatile to a stronger trend. The steel market is facing weak demand during the off - season, which suppresses steel prices. The iron ore market shows a short - term rebound but a long - term supply - demand loosening pattern. The coking coal and coke market has tightened supply, leading to upward price movements. The thermal coal market has short - term price fluctuations and a long - term supply - loose situation [1][3][5][7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3063 yuan/ton and 3190 yuan/ton respectively. The spot steel market has general transactions, with rebar being weak and prices remaining stable. The national building materials transaction volume is 8.9 tons. The steel production and demand have decreased, and the total inventory has increased. The hot - rolled coil production has slightly increased, consumption has decreased, and inventory has slightly increased. The export of plates remains high, but there are concerns about future consumption. The market sentiment has been boosted by the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, but the lack of speculative demand and off - season weak demand will continue to suppress steel prices [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore has a slight increase, with the main 2509 contract closing at 736.5 yuan/ton, a 0.68% increase. The spot price of imported iron ore in Tangshan Port has a slight increase, and the market trading sentiment is not good. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports is 94.2 tons, a 5.71% decrease from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume is 156.0 tons. The global iron ore shipment has temporarily declined, and the molten iron production has decreased but is still at a relatively high level. In the short term, the iron ore price has rebounded, and the discount on the futures market has been significantly repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The prices of coking coal and coke in the futures market have increased. The spot price of coking coal in the main production areas is stable, and the terminal procurement is on - demand. The import market is stable and strong. The supply of coking coal has tightened, and the industry inventory is at a low level. The demand for coke has certain support, and the port inventory has been decreasing. Policy expectations also support the market [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect a volatile market, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of thermal coal in the main production areas is volatile. The procurement of chemical and large - scale terminal users is stable, and the port market is stable. The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the trade volume has decreased. The port inventory is declining, and the high - quality supply has a firm price. The high temperature in the south has increased the power demand, and the price has a certain support. The high - calorie Australian coal has a price inversion, while the low - calorie Indonesian coal has a cost - effective advantage. In July, the coal production capacity is gradually released, and the demand is expected to increase in the short term. In the long term, the supply is loose [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-10 关税本身对铜供需暂时不会有根本性改变 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-09，沪铜主力合约开于 79590元/吨，收于 78400元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.53%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 78,340元/吨，收于 78,330 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.74%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日铜市呈现震荡下行态势，现货升水收窄至20-120元/吨，均价70元/吨，较前日下跌15元。受美国 拟加征50%铜关税消息影响，沪铜夜盘冲高至80300元后回落，日间持续走低至78750元，最终收报78940元/吨，隔 月价差扩大至360元。现货市场交投有所回暖但整体仍显谨慎，常州地区平水成交，上海市场压价明显，俄罗斯等 非注册品牌贴水达160元/吨。预计在月差走扩和看跌情绪影响下，今日升水将继续承压。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，今日凌晨，美联储6月会议纪要显示官员对降息看法分化，因官员们在关税对通胀的影响方面观 点不一，大致分为三派：年内降息但排除7月（主流阵营）、全年按兵不动、主张下次会议立即行动。关税政策方 面，欧盟表示目标是在8月1日 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-10 现货保持稳定，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2947元/吨，较前日变动+12元/吨，幅度+0.41%；菜粕2509合约2586元/吨，较前 日变动+10元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2850元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-97， 较前日变动-12；江苏地区豆粕现货2780元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-167，较前日变动-12；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2780元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-167，较前日变动-12。福建地区菜粕现货价格2590 元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM09+4，较前日变动+0。 近期市场资讯，巴西外贸秘书处数据显示，7月初巴西大豆出口步伐相对去年同期放慢。1-4日，巴西大豆出口量为 191.8万吨，日均出口量为47.9万吨，同比降低2.0%；去年7月份全月出口1125.0万吨。1-4日，巴西豆粕出口量为23.0 万吨，去年7月全月出口203.2万吨。官方数据显示，2024/25年度乌克兰油菜籽出口量仅为314万吨，较上年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of India's tender import price and volume has boosted the futures and spot prices of urea. The urea production remains at a high level, with the downstream in the peak agricultural demand season and the industrial demand falling short of expectations. The export quota is gradually released, leading to an increase in port inventory and a decrease in upstream enterprise inventory [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [8][9][15] 2. Urea Production - It shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes information on production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [17][20][21] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Data on the FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - sized urea in China, the CFR price of large - sized urea in China, the difference between the FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea and the FOB price of China minus 30, the difference between the CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia and the FOB price of China, urea export profit, and disk export profit are provided [25][30][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - It contains data on the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, the number of days of pending orders, and the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei [45][40][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Information on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract is presented [43][46][49]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-10 氧化铝的过剩需要等待从量变到质变 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20660元/吨，较上一交易日上涨60元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日持平于-60元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20550元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨10元/ 吨至-160元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20640元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日持平于-70元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-09日沪铝主力合约开于20510元/吨，收于20515元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨20元/ 吨，涨幅0.1%，最高价达20575元/吨，最低价达到20455元/吨。全天交易日成交102569手，较上一交易日减少 7014手，全天交易日持仓250099手，较上一交易日减少4627手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-07，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存47.8万吨。截止2025-07-09，LME铝库存390800 吨，较前一交易日增加6450吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-09 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3110元/吨，山东价格录得3100元/吨，广西 ...

港口持续累库 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 甲醇日报 | 2025-07-10 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润668元/吨（-3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1963元/吨（-3），内蒙北线基差191元/吨（-2），内蒙南线1980元/吨（-40）；山东临沂2280元/吨（+0），鲁南 基差108元/吨（+1）；河南2165元/吨（-10），河南基差-7元/吨（-9）；河北2185元/吨（+0），河北基差73元/吨（+1）。 隆众内地工厂库存356900吨（+4620），西北工厂库存228000吨（+4500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单221240吨（-12010）， 西北工厂待发订单100000吨（-10400）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2385元/吨（-17），太仓基差13元/吨（-16），CFR中国277美元/吨（-3），华东进口价差-32元/ 吨（-1），常州甲醇2400元/吨；广东甲醇2400元/吨（-15），广东基差28元/吨（-14）。隆众港口总库存718900吨（+45240）， 江苏港口库存395000吨（+62000），浙江港口库存175500吨（- ...