Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in iron ore prices is mainly due to the spill - over effect of rising steel prices. From a long - term perspective, the center of ore prices has risen. However, the black sector may face an overall correction, and iron ore prices will follow suit. It is recommended to take profits on long - term contracts after the rebound and pay attention to policy implementation [10][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market**: On July 29, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly, opened lower, rebounded after a slight decline, turned from a loss to a gain, and closed at 798.0 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. Other steel futures also showed different trends, with RB2510 up 1.98%, HC2510 up 2.01%, and SS2509 down 0.12% [7][5] - **Spot Market**: On July 29, the main iron ore foreign market quotes increased by $1.5/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were raised by 5 - 15 yuan/ton [9] - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline; the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract narrowed for 5 consecutive trading days [9] 2. Future Outlook - **Influence of Policies**: The recent black - sector market is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy. Iron ore may experience a decline in demand due to steel mill production cuts, and the recent price increase is mainly due to the spill - over effect of rising steel prices. From a long - term perspective, the center of ore prices has risen [10][11] - **Supply Side**: Last week, Australia's shipping volume rebounded, and Brazil's shipping volume was basically the same as the previous week. The total shipping volume recovered after a seasonal decline. Currently, the weekly shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is around 27 million tons, and the arrival volume last week dropped to 22.405 million tons. Considering shipping schedules, the arrival volume may fluctuate at this level until mid - August [11] - **Demand Side**: Downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and hot metal production has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. Steel mill profitability has increased, and steel mills are maintaining high - volume production. The subsequent production - cut process is expected to be slow, which will support ore prices [11] - **Short - term Forecast**: The current futures price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. In the short term, the ore price has rebounded due to Sino - US negotiations and the Politburo meeting. However, considering the reversal of coking coal trends and the ebbing of anti - involution hype, the black sector may face a correction, and ore prices will follow [12] 3. Industry News - On July 29, China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd. was included in the list of central enterprises directly managed by the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. Zhu Huarong was appointed as the Party Secretary and Chairman of China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd. [13] - On July 28, Jiangxi Province successfully issued the seventh batch of government bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total scale of 27.255 billion yuan, including 14.743 billion yuan in new special bonds [13] 4. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including prices, shipping volumes, arrival volumes, inventory, production, and consumption [19][22][23][28][30][34][39][40]

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 30 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月29日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2508 | 2,188.7 | 1,858.0 | 2,111.0 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The commodity market sentiment declined. The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 22,655 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.35%. The total long and short positions of the top 20 seats both decreased, and the net long positions decreased by 3,447 lots. [7] - The processing fee continued to rise. The imported zinc concentrate index rose to $76.25 per dry ton, and the weekly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate remained flat at 3,800 yuan/ton. With the profits from sulfuric acid and minor metals at a high level year-on-year, enterprises' production enthusiasm was high, and some new zinc ingot production capacities were gradually released. The overall zinc ingot supply remained strong. [7] - In the second half of the year, infrastructure investment may increase the demand for zinc. However, the short-term operating rates of galvanizing and die-casting zinc remained at a low level compared to the same period, and downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices. [7] - The inventory performance was divided between domestic and overseas markets. The domestic social inventory increased by 0.54 million tons to 10.37 million tons, while the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease by 3,350 tons to 112,150 tons. The 0 - 3 spread was 1.95C, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 48.64%. [7] - The spot premium remained basically stable. The Shanghai market had a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the 08 contract, the Tianjin market was at a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market was at a discount of 80 yuan/ton compared to the 09 contract and 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. [7] - The zinc concentrate supply remained loose, and the surplus pressure during the off - season of demand was gradually reflected in the inventory. Although the short - term sentiment declined, the anti - involution was not over, and SHFE zinc oscillated weakly. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: - SHFE zinc 2508 opened at 22,630 yuan/ton, closed at 22,610 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,690 yuan/ton, a low of 22,555 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.31%. The open interest was 20,462 lots, a decrease of 5,070 lots. [7] - SHFE zinc 2509 opened at 22,645 yuan/ton, closed at 22,655 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,725 yuan/ton, a low of 22,580 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.35%. The open interest was 117,616 lots, a decrease of 6,845 lots. [7] - SHFE zinc 2510 opened at 22,665 yuan/ton, closed at 22,675 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,735 yuan/ton, a low of 22,585 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.29%. The open interest was 54,037 lots, an increase of 3,567 lots. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc ingots was strong, and the demand was weak in the short term. The inventory performance was divided between domestic and overseas markets. [7] - **Spot Market**: The spot premium remained stable, and the price difference between regions changed. [7] 2. Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On July 29, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,650 - 22,785 yuan/ton, and the double - swallow brand was traded between 22,730 - 22,855 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc was traded between 22,580 - 22,715 yuan/ton. [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,590 - 22,705 yuan/ton. The local brands had a premium of 5 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot price. [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The 0 zinc was traded between 22,510 - 22,660 yuan/ton, and the 1 zinc was traded around 22,430 - 22,560 yuan/ton. The Huludao brand was priced at 23,120 yuan/ton. [8][9] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,470 - 22,655 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were at a discount of 80 yuan/ton compared to the 2509 contract and a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provided figures on the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE monthly spread, but specific data descriptions were not detailed in the text. [11][13]

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The carbonate lithium futures continued to decline, with the main contract hitting a low of 68,600 during the session. After the first trading session, there was an obvious rebound in the anti - involution theme, and the decline of carbonate lithium narrowed. The spot market was resistant to decline, with the price of electric carbon dropping by 750 to 73,150. The spot was at a premium to the futures, and upstream lithium salt enterprises still showed strong price - holding willingness. There was a significant divergence in the psychological price expectations between upstream and downstream enterprises. The decline of Australian ore was greater than that of spot electric carbon, while the price of lithium mica ore was resistant to decline. The production profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene expanded, while the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica widened. The supply of carbonate lithium was expected to remain at a high level in the short term, and the fundamentals were difficult to support the price. The futures were expected to continue to hype the anti - involution logic, and the short - term support level of the futures was around 68,000 [11]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures dropped, and the decline narrowed after a rebound. The spot market was more resistant to decline, with the electric carbon price dropping by 750 to 73,150. Upstream enterprises had a strong price - holding intention, with a psychological expectation price range of 73,000 - 74,000 yuan, while downstream enterprises preferred to purchase through the futures premium and discount point - price model. Australian ore prices dropped by 65 to 780 US dollars per ton, expanding the production profit of spodumene - using salt plants to 2,489 yuan per ton. High - grade lithium mica prices dropped by 30 to 1,775 yuan per ton, widening the production loss of lithium - mica - using salt plants to 6,968 yuan per ton. The production volume of carbonate lithium from spodumene may further increase, while the production volume from lithium mica depends on the reduction and shutdown of relevant mines in Jiangxi. The short - term supply is expected to remain high, and the futures may continue to hype the anti - involution logic, with short - term support at around 68,000 [11]. 2. Industry News - A study by the University of Hong Kong found that aluminum impurities in the lithium - ion battery recycling process can form super - stable aluminum - oxygen bonds in the cathode crystals, trapping key metals and reducing their leachability, which challenges traditional recycling practices and emphasizes the need to redesign specific solvent processes [14]. - Two major new - energy companies achieved a breakthrough in recycling batteries by producing battery - grade lithium hydroxide from waste electric vehicle batteries. Their innovative process can extract lithium from mixed NMC and LFP black powder on one production line, improving versatility and reducing costs. The produced lithium hydroxide meets the purity standards of cathode manufacturers, which is in line with the EU battery regulations' goals of 50% lithium recovery rate by 2027 and 80% by 2031 [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market remains in an oversupply situation, with the short - term market dominated by macro logic. The overall oversupply pattern is still significant, and the nickel price is expected to be weak. The upstream nickel ore supply is expected to be loose, the support from iron plants and stainless steel is limited, and the battery - grade nickel sulfate price has rebounded. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The main contract of Shanghai nickel, 2509, closed down 0.85% at 121,800, and the total open interest of the index decreased by 3,705 to 174,585 lots. [7] - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the ore price is likely to fall. [7] - The support from nickel iron plants and the stainless - steel market is limited. The cost of nickel iron plants is high, and some Indonesian production lines have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte. The stainless - steel market is weak due to the traditional off - season and high inventory. [7] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continued to rise, reaching 27,370 yuan/ton on the 29th, supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and low inventory of nickel salt plants. [7] 3.2行业要闻 - Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry, considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan. [8][10] - Bulgaria has launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. [9] - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and low silver usage, which can significantly reduce production costs. [9] - Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with a total approved storage capacity of over 1.6 GW. [9]

Report Information - Report Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has cooled down, and aluminum industry chain varieties have entered a shock consolidation phase. Shanghai Aluminum 2509 has a narrow range, closing down 0.22% at 20,605. The total open interest of the index has decreased by 12,072 to 615,012 lots, and the 08-09 premium is reported at 40; the AD-AL negative spread is reported at -510. Alumina has stopped falling, rising 1.01% to 3,307 compared to the previous day [8]. - Bauxite supply remains loose, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August. The ore price has stopped falling and recovered. The alumina futures-spot arbitrage window remains open, and the demand for delivery products supports the spot price. However, the short-term anti-involution trading has temporarily cooled down, and alumina is adjusting at a high level [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened, and the supply of scrap aluminum is short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continues to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD-AL maintains a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector remains light. The absolute high price suppresses terminal consumption, while the aluminum smelting profit is high. One can appropriately participate in shorting at high levels [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai Aluminum 2509 closed down 0.22% at 20,605, with the index total open interest decreasing by 12,072 to 615,012 lots, and the 08-09 premium at 40; the AD-AL negative spread was -510. Alumina rose 1.01% to 3,307 [8]. - Bauxite supply is loose, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension will gradually appear in August. The alumina futures-spot arbitrage window is open, but short-term anti-involution trading has cooled down [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is the off-season for the automotive industry, with weak demand and short scrap aluminum supply. Cast aluminum follows Shanghai Aluminum in a range, and the AD-AL maintains a low negative spread [8]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is sluggish in the off-season, and the operating rate in the aluminum processing sector is light. High prices suppress consumption, while smelting profit is high, and one can short at high levels [8]. 2. Industry News - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, and the canceled agreement covered a mine with about 376 million tons of bauxite [9]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June, exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net import was 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]. - Guinea has revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long-idle mine rights, and the government aims to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid-2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in April, and it has now resumed after consultations with the government [10].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The copper price is expected to face correction pressure, but there are still fundamental supporting factors, and the correction is still a buying opportunity [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper continued to trade below the trend line. Overnight, Chile hoped to exempt copper tariffs, leading to a sharp drop in US copper, and the COMEX - LME spread narrowed to 2542. As August 1 approaches, the market's attention to tariff details and implementation time has increased. The US - EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar and risk sentiment, with a neutral - weak impact on copper prices [10] - The spot copper showed resistance to decline, with the price dropping 50 to 79,025, and the spot premium rising 15 to 110. The near - month contract shifted to a slight contango structure. The LME 0 - 3 contango was 54.34. The LME market continued to be suppressed by US copper tariffs, but the overall intraday decline of Shanghai copper and London copper was limited, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood [10] - There are many macro - level events currently, such as the resumption of trade talks between Chinese and US senior officials, the end - of - month Fed interest - rate meeting, the end - of - month Chinese Politburo meeting, and US non - farm payroll data, increasing market uncertainty [10] 2. Industry News - Due to agricultural exports in Africa, the shipping industry has entered a peak congestion period, with ship bookings delayed until late August. There has been a certain degree of inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper at the Durban and Dar es Salaam ports [11] - Fuye Group plans to establish a subsidiary, Jiangxi Hefang Environmental Technology Co., Ltd., in Jiangxi Hengfeng Economic Development Zone to build a project with an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of recycled electrolytic copper [11] - On July 28, Chilean Finance Minister Mario Marcel said that the 50% tariff on copper has a chance of being exempted [11]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 30 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | --- | 资料来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 1.2 后市展望： 外围市场方面，中美第三轮磋商将在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行，中方在记者会上 表示，坚决反对任何一方以牺牲中方的利益为代价达成交易，关注最终谈判结果。 国内方面，7 月 28 日，上海市经济信息化委印发 《上海市进一步扩大人工智能 应用的若干措施》，其中提到，降低智能算力使用成本，发放 6 亿元算力券，加 强算力调度平台建设，体系化支持企业研发和应用大模型，加快 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - **Contract performance**: - For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3045, the opening price was 3040, the highest price was 3041, the lowest price was 3013, the closing price was 3028, with a decline of 17 and a decrease rate of -0.56%. The trading volume was 519,043, the open interest was 1,326,501, and the change in open interest was 45,129 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3001, the opening price was 2989, the highest price was 2992, the lowest price was 2963, the closing price was 2983, with a decline of 18 and a decrease rate of -0.60%. The trading volume was 1,013,822, the open interest was 1,468,086, and the change in open interest was -92,213 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3035, the opening price was 3027, the highest price was 3029, the lowest price was 3000, the closing price was 3018, with a decline of 17 and a decrease rate of -0.56%. The trading volume was 135,772, the open interest was 620,262, and the change in open interest was -4,598 [6]. - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1015 cents. The new - season US soybeans are growing well. Although the excellent - good rate dropped to 68% in the latest week, it is still at a relatively high level in the past five years. Only 7% of the US soybean - growing areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest is gradually strengthening. The demand also has a certain improvement expectation. The US has reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US. With one week left before the final tariff increase, the market expects that other small countries may also reach agreements to purchase agricultural products from the US, slightly reducing the previous concerns about US soybean exports. Overall, US soybeans may still fluctuate in the bottom range [7]. - **Domestic market situation**: Domestic soybean meal was strong in the early stage and has corrected in recent days. China still maintains a 23% tariff on imported US soybeans, and the import window for US soybeans is in the fourth quarter. As time approaches, the fact that China has not started purchasing new - season US soybeans was the main reason for the market's rise in the previous few days. China and the US will hold talks on Monday and Tuesday this week. With the US gradually reaching trade agreements with many countries recently, the market expects that the issue of US soybean import tariffs may be mentioned in the meeting. If the tariffs return to the previous level, combined with the current high soybean meal inventory, the market price may decline. However, this is only an expectation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the actual outcome of this week's negotiations, with increased short - term price volatility expected [7] Group 3: Industry News - **USDA crop growth report**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, the previous week's rate was 68%, and the same period last year was 67%. The flowering rate of US soybeans was 76%, compared with 62% the previous week, 75% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 76%. The pod - setting rate was 41%, compared with 26% the previous week, 42% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42% [10] - **Argentina's export tax adjustment**: Argentine President Milei announced on Saturday that at the request of the country's agricultural department, the export withholding tax rates for poultry, beef, soybeans and their derivatives, corn, sorghum, and sunflowers will be reduced. The export withholding tax rate for beef and poultry meat will be reduced from 6.75% to 5%, for corn and sorghum from 12% to 9.5%, for sunflower seeds from 7.5% to 5.5%, for soybeans from 33% to 26%, and for soybean by - products from 31% to 24.5% [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal (yuan/ton), the basis of the Soybean Meal 09 contract (yuan/ton), the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 (yuan/ton), the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 (yuan/ton), the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][18]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE levels increase volatility, and in Q3, the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing should be noted. [5] - It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions. For those with a short - term view, they can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity after the silver's upward momentum fades. [4][5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The potential harm of the US - EU trade agreement to the European economy led to a more than 1% drop in the euro against the US dollar, pushing the US dollar index to around 99. The easing of international trade and the cease - fire on the Thai - Cambodian border reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold fell to around $3300 per ounce, while silver with strong industrial attributes was strong due to Sino - US trade negotiation expectations. [4] - Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise. [4] - This week, attention should be paid to Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill reduced the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. [5] - In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. [5] - It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7][9][11] 3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Sino - US senior economic officials held over five - hour talks in Stockholm to extend the trade truce by three months. [17] - A cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia took effect at midnight on Monday, ending a deadly conflict. [17] - Trump set a new deadline for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war. [17] - Trump expects to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements with the US and will send notice letters to about 200 countries. The US is considering changing its Myanmar policy regarding rare - earth resources. The EU and the US will establish a metal alliance as part of the trade agreement. [18]