Industry Information - Report industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Report Core View - The US-China talks this week achieved phased results. According to the US side, China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually in the next three years. This agreement is expected to significantly reduce the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season, shifting from oversupply to a tight balance. The US CBOT soybeans still have some room for price increase [6]. - After the agreement, the cost of imported soybeans in China has increased significantly, driving the price of soybean meal to recover. Short-term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a slightly bullish bias. However, the risk lies in the variability of the macro - policy, i.e., whether this policy will be continuously implemented and the implementation intensity [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3005, the opening price was 3018, the highest price was 3058, the lowest price was 3015, the closing price was 3026, with a rise of 21 and a gain of 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,248,829, the open interest was 1,595,045, and the open interest change was - 54,240. - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 2947, the opening price was 2961, the highest price was 2986, the lowest price was 2960, the closing price was 2964, with a rise of 17 and a gain of 0.58%. The trading volume was 110,601, the open interest was 449,107, and the open interest change was - 3,049. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 2949, the opening price was 2955, the highest price was 2985, the lowest price was 2949, the closing price was 2965, with a rise of 16 and a gain of 0.54%. The trading volume was 1,437, the open interest was 3,708, and the open interest change was - 4,246 [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term support for CBOT soybeans is obvious, and soybean meal can be treated with a slightly bullish bias. Attention should be paid to whether China will purchase US soybeans as scheduled and whether it is a policy - based or commercial purchase [6]. 2. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 due to the US government shutdown since October 1 [9]. - The soybean sowing area in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 crop year has reached 76.13% of the estimated area, a 16.08 - percentage - point increase from last week. However, the sowing progress is still slightly lower than the historical average of the same period and also lower than that of last year [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][18]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current national egg price is stable, with the average price in the main production areas at 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas at 3.17 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day. The 12 - contract rose 0.45%. [8] - In the spot market, large - sized eggs are in short supply while small - sized eggs are abundant at the end of the month, indicating high levels of both egg production start and culling. The spot price in November is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [8] - In the futures market, although the absolute price is at a historical low, the supply will remain high for some time as the accelerated culling is only in its early stage. The weak demand restricts the upward movement of the spot price, and the upside space is limited. The accelerated culling recently restricts the downside space. It is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset, and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. [8] - In the long - term, the inflection point of the fundamentals may appear as early as the beginning of next year. It is recommended to track the weekly culling data. [8] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2601 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3325, the opening price was 3307, the highest price was 3370, the lowest price was 3297, the closing price was 3347, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.66%. The trading volume was 127,817, the open interest was 160,757, and the change in open interest was 150,408. - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2907, the opening price was 2907, the highest price was 2925, the lowest price was 2878, the closing price was 2905, with a fall of 2 and a fall rate of - 0.07%. The trading volume was 238,585, and the change in open interest was - 181. - For the 2512 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3144, the opening price was 3120, the highest price was 3179, the lowest price was 3103, the closing price was 3158, with a rise of 14 and a rise rate of 0.45%. The trading volume was 296,727, the open interest was 177,002, and the change in open interest was 421. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset and a wide - straddle double - selling strategy for options. Track weekly culling data for long - term trends. [8] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on an upward trend. As of the end of September, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.368 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. [9] - The monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises in September was about 39.2 million, down from 39.81 million in August and significantly lower than the 45.64 million in the same period in 2024. The monthly replenishment volume was moderately low in the past eight years. [9] - From the first to the third week as of October 23, the national culling volume of chickens was 20.02 million, 20.32 million, and 19.76 million respectively. [9] - As of October 23, the average culling age of chickens was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than the previous month. [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, layer farming profit, average price in the main egg - producing areas, 12 - contract seasonal trend, 11 - contract basis, and 12 - 02 spread. The data sources are Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen, as well as the research and investment center of Jianxin Futures. [11][15][16]

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 04 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash, Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate weakly due to the potential short - term impact on demand from the shutdown of four coal - fired glass production lines in the Shahe area, and the subsequent oversupply situation in winter. The anti - involution expectation in the soda ash industry has not materialized [8]. - The glass market is in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The Shahe production limit has been implemented, but the actual situation is not as expected. The recent price will oscillate, and the medium - term direction will be dominated by fundamentals [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash, Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 4, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash opened low and moved lower, closing at 1202 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.51%, and the daily position increased by 22,468 lots [8]. - Fundamentally, the production and sales of enterprises tend to be balanced, and inventory fluctuates slightly. The weekly production of soda ash increased by 17,000 tons to 757,600 tons, and the equipment maintenance is at a high level in the same period. The total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises at the end of October increased by 2.53% month - on - month. The production of float glass is stable, and the production of photovoltaic glass remains unchanged. The inventory of soda ash plants slightly decreased to 1.702 million tons [8]. Glass - Fundamentally, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe will be shut down in the short term. The photovoltaic glass is in a weak balance, and the overall glass supply is at a high level this year. After the festival, the factory inventory remains high, and the inventory days have continuously increased. The real estate market has not shown a stable trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly production of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises, the market price of heavy soda ash in central China, and the production of flat glass [12][15][16]

Report Information - Industry: Grease [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Views - The decline of grease continues, dragged down by the inventory accumulation in palm oil producing areas and the uncertainty of biodiesel policies [7]. - The domestic grease supply is sufficient, the spot price drops with the market, and the basis quotation remains stable [7]. - The palm oil main producing areas have a strong production increase expectation, the export data slows down, and the domestic and foreign inventories are expected to increase, putting pressure on palm oil, but there are expectations of production reduction and B50 in the long - term [7]. - Based on the import cost calculation, the current price decline space of soybean oil is limited and it has buying value, but it is suppressed by high inventory, and the short - term price has limited upward momentum, with a possible fluctuation range of 8000 - 8300 [7]. - For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the arrival and crushing situation of Australian seeds later and the progress of China - Canada relations. The domestic spot basis is stable and slightly strong, and the de - stocking trend continues. It should be regarded as short - term shock adjustment, pay attention to the lower technical support, and the medium - and long - term idea is to buy on dips [7]. Content Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Quotation Information** - Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Dongguan factories is 01 + 630, and grade 1 rapeseed oil is 01 + 730 [7]. - The basis price of grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market: For grade 1 soybean oil, in November it is Y2501+250; from November to January it is 01 + 260; from December to January it is 01 + 280. For grade 3 soybean oil, it is 01 + 180. For raw soybean oil, it is 01 + 60. The palm oil quotes of Guangdong traders are stable: 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 120 (at Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree palm oil is 01 + 100 (at Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 (at Dongguan warehouse), and 28 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 (at Dongguan warehouse) [7]. 2. Industry News - According to the data released by shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume in October was 1,639,089 tons, a 5.2% increase compared with 1,558,247 tons in September. Among them, the export volume to China was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons compared with 45,000 tons in the same period last month [8]. - According to the data released by independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil export volume in October was 1,501,945 tons, a 4.3% increase compared with 1,439,845 tons in September [8]. - After the summit between China and the US leaders on Thursday, China has started to purchase US soybeans, and the stagnation of purchases in the previous months has been alleviated. People familiar with the matter revealed that China has newly purchased at least four ships of US soybeans, which will be shipped from the West Coast and Gulf Coast ports of the US later this year and early in 2026, with a total volume of about 250,000 tons, marking the gradual recovery of China - US agricultural product trade [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][12][15][23][28][29]

Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 04, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as industrial silicon [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices opened low, then trended lower, and finally rebounded weakly. The Si2601 contract closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.38%, with a trading volume of 226,808 lots and an open interest of 228,268 lots, a net decrease of 297 lots [4] - The price range of 553 industrial silicon is 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 is 9550 - 9950 yuan/ton [5] Outlook - Industrial silicon enterprises have insufficient willingness to actively cut production. Supply in October will exceed about 430,000 tons, and there is no incremental demand. The loose supply - demand situation means there is no inventory reduction drive, and social inventory still exceeds 440,000 tons [5] - Spot prices have limited guidance on short - term futures prices. The expected support in the fourth quarter mainly comes from rising costs in the southwest and active production cuts, but the effectiveness of the positive factors remains to be seen [5] - The industrial silicon market has limited strong drivers. The futures price is still within the adjustment range since August. In November, warehouse receipts need to be concentrated for cancellation and delivery, which will intensify short - term price fluctuations, but the upside resistance is still obvious [5] Group 3: Market News - On November 03, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 46,161 lots, a net decrease of 1,092 lots from the previous trading day [6] - On October 31, the industrial silicon market inventory was 447,700 tons, a weekly increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.59% [6] - In September, the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month but a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 491,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 61,500 tons [6]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石月报 日期 2025 年 11 月 3 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 供应有增长预期，而需求在钢企利润的压制下持续走 弱，基本面整体偏弱，观察后续利润修复情况 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 近期研究报告 复情况》 2025-10-09 或跟随黑色板块整体回调》 2025-08-01 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃本s月um行m情ar：y＃10 月以来铁矿石期货 2601 合约表现为"小幅反 弹—快速回落—明显反弹"，10 月 9 日开盘自 782.0 元/吨 小幅反弹，随后快速回落，于 10 月 21 日创下月间最低水平 760.0 元/ ...

行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 3 日 碳酸锂期货月报 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangp@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yuff@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 需求强劲带动去库，锂价看涨 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 近期研究报告 《终端需求回暖，锂价有望止 跌》 2025-6-19 短期碳酸锂走势》 2025-7-28 观点摘要 ＃summary＃碳酸锂供应压力下降，10 月碳酸锂产量创历史新高达 92260 吨，但 从 10 月底碳酸锂周度产量上可以发现，前期贡献主要增量的锂辉石 产碳酸锂量出现拐点，盐湖产碳酸锂因季节性因素 11-12 月将逐月下 降，云母产碳酸锂量在枧下窝矿未复产背景下预计也难提升，因此 11 月碳酸锂产量预计将环比持平。需求端持续高增，10 月碳酸锂去 库速度加快 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the realized export increment, the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the transmission of the tight - mine logic, which provides some support for zinc prices. However, the upside is constrained by weak consumption, leading to a weak rebound and repair of SHFE zinc at low levels [7][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1. Market Review - In Q1, the center of zinc prices declined and entered a wide - range oscillation range. In Q2, macro - risk events drove SHFE zinc futures prices to gap down and move lower. The shadow of tariff policies persisted, and the oversupply in the industrial supply - demand situation pressured zinc prices, which oscillated within a range. In Q3, the anti - involution trend in the domestic commodity market and the rising expectation of overseas interest rate cuts pushed the macro - environment to turn warmer. However, the continuous drag from the SHFE zinc fundamentals prevented resonance, resulting in a pattern of rising and then falling within a range. In July, tariff policies increased trade uncertainty, causing the market sentiment to turn cautious. The macro and fundamental aspects resonated, and SHFE zinc dipped to 21,865 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, the anti - involution sentiment swept through the commodity market, and SHFE zinc led the rally among non - ferrous metals. At the end of July, the lack of super - expected stimulus in the Politburo meeting, combined with the fundamental drag, pressured SHFE zinc again. In August, the core contradiction of abundant zinc concentrate and zinc ingots in the zinc market became more prominent during the off - season of demand. Supported by overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the low - inventory pattern on the LME, SHFE zinc was difficult to decline significantly, oscillating between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton. In September, the strengthening overseas interest - rate cut expectation and the shift of the LME 0 - 3 structure to Back and its widening supported the zinc price from the external market. In China, the supply exceeded demand, and the inflection point of social inventory destocking was postponed. SHFE zinc lacked upward momentum and maintained an oscillating pattern. In late September, affected by the macro - environment, the strengthening US dollar led to long - position liquidation in LME zinc, dragging SHFE zinc below 22,000 yuan/ton. In October, with the opening of the export window, some zinc ingots were exported, and the supply - demand pattern improved marginally [9][10]. 3.1.2. Future Outlook - On the mine side, seasonal production cuts in northern domestic mines and some mines' active production control after completing their annual plans have led to a decline in domestic zinc - mine supply. The zinc - mine TC is still expected to weaken. In October, the imported zinc - mine processing fee also showed a peak - and - decline trend. Although the internal - external ratio has recovered from its low level, zinc - mine imports are still at a loss, highlighting the price advantage of domestic mines. With the support of smelters' winter - storage demand, the domestic TC is under more significant pressure. On the supply side, although smelters currently have relatively abundant raw - material inventories, the decline in domestic zinc - mine processing fees and the tightening of raw - material supply may restrict zinc - ingot production. On the demand side, the "Silver October" peak season ended, and the primary consumption sector performed mediocrely, with year - on - year performance worse than last year. Coupled with the weak prices of the black - metal sector, there were few bright spots overall. Affected by the closure of the import window, zinc - ingot imports significantly shrank. In mid - to late October, the export window to Southeast Asia opened, and the decline in the net - import level alleviated the domestic oversupply situation. The high - premium structure overseas stimulated the delivery of some invisible inventories, and the extreme value of 0 - 3 Back significantly declined. However, the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons. The tight - supply pattern and the generally optimistic macro - environment strongly supported LME zinc [7][25]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Winter Storage Leads to Peaked - and - Declined Processing Fees, and Domestic Zinc - Mine Supply Weakens Month - on - Month - ILZSG indicates that due to planned and unexpected mine closures, zinc - mine production has decreased in the past three years, but it may increase by 4.3% to 1.243 billion tons in 2025. It is expected that due to the increase in concentrate supply, refined - zinc production will grow by 1.8% to 1.373 billion tons in 2025, and demand will grow by 1% to 1.364 billion tons, resulting in a global refined - zinc supply surplus of 93,000 metric tons. In 2025, factors such as the复产, new production, and adjustment of mining plans of overseas zinc concentrates will significantly improve the tight - supply pattern of zinc mines. The overseas market mainly focuses on the Russian Ozernoye and Congo (Kinshasa) Kipushi projects as growth points, and the Irish Tara mine plans to reach full production in 2025. In the fourth quarter, domestic smelters are actively producing due to winter - storage demand, and the demand for domestic zinc mines is strong. However, domestic mines are reducing production due to seasonality and some mines' production control after completing their annual plans, resulting in a month - on - month weakening of supply. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee significantly declined in October. If the domestic supply remains tight, the imported zinc - mine processing fee is expected to decline further. Imported zinc mines are in a long - term loss, and smelters' purchasing willingness is low. The increase in the imported zinc - mine TC previously may lead to the recovery of overseas smelters' production, which may affect future imported - mine inflows, and the imported processing fee is also under downward pressure [26][27][28]. 3.2.2. Smelters' Raw - Material Inventories at a High Level, and the Price of By - Product Sulfuric Acid Rises - Due to the abundant supply at the raw - material end, smelters' raw - material inventories are at a high level. The rising by - product price further stimulates smelting enthusiasm, and domestic zinc - ingot production has increased significantly year - on - year in 2025. Since Q3, the internal - external ratio has decreased, and smelters have continuously snapped up domestic zinc mines due to the economic advantage of domestic mines. The domestic zinc - mine processing fee has peaked and declined, but the smelting - end raw - material inventory is abundant, and zinc - ingot production remained at a high level in September. According to SMM data, domestic zinc - ingot production in September was 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The total production from January to September was 5.0691 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.85%. Domestic smelters will start negotiating the zinc - mine processing fee for November with mines. Currently, domestic smelters' demand for raw materials is strong, and the zinc - mine processing fee will continue to decline in the context of a tight - mine pattern. At the beginning of November, the SMM imported zinc - concentrate index decreased by $8.5 per dry ton month - on - month to $110.25 per dry ton, and the average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 150 yuan per metal ton month - on - month to 3,250 yuan per metal ton. The comprehensive zinc - concentrate processing fee (after a 2/8 split) is 4,700 yuan/ton. The decline in TC squeezes the smelting - end profit, but the price of by - product sulfuric acid continues to rise under cost support. In October, the increase in sulfuric - acid prices was less than that at the cost end, and there may be a possibility of production reduction, which drives the trading activity in the smelting - acid market, and the price rises accordingly. However, downstream resistance to high prices is prominent, and the domestic sulfuric - acid market may oscillate at a high level in November [35]. 3.2.3. The Export Window Opens, and Zinc - Ingot Exports Increase Month - on - Month in October - According to the latest customs data, 505,400 physical tons of imported zinc concentrates were imported in September 2025, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative imported zinc - concentrate volume from January to September was 4.008 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. Although the imported zinc - mine window remains closed, the previously locked - price and long - term contract zinc mines of smelters are arriving at ports successively, and the arrival volume of imported zinc mines remains stable. In the fourth quarter, mines are reducing production seasonally, and with the winter - storage demand and the high - level refined - zinc production, domestic smelters' demand for zinc mines is strong. However, the loss of imported zinc mines in October continued to expand compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively snapping up domestic zinc mines instead of importing, resulting in light spot - purchase transactions of imported zinc mines. It is difficult for the imported zinc - mine volume in October to increase further. In September, the imported refined - zinc volume was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. The cumulative imported refined - zinc volume from January to September was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, 2,500 tons of refined zinc were exported. The LME 0 - 3 structure overseas once expanded to over $300 per ton, and the high - premium structure stimulated local - area deliveries. The Back structure weakened to below $100 per ton, but the LME zinc inventory remained below 40,000 tons, and the tight - supply pattern remained. Overall, the loss of zinc - ingot imports is over 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export window opens intermittently. It is expected that the zinc - ingot export volume of domestic smelters and traders will increase to about 10,000 tons [39][40]. 3.2.4. The "Silver October" Ends, and It's Difficult to Find Bright Spots in Demand in the Fourth Quarter - The galvanizing start - up rate was 55.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%. The galvanizing raw - material inventory was 12,660 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 367,000 tons. Overall, consumption in October was lower than expected, and black - metal prices were lackluster. Downstream pipe traders mainly made rigid purchases, and the sales of galvanized pipes were poor. Enterprises increased their finished - product inventory and reduced production to lower the start - up rate to prevent excessive inventory. The finished - product inventory increased slightly, and enterprises still plan to lower the start - up rate in the future to prevent inventory accumulation. In terms of die - cast zinc alloys, the start - up rate was 49.73%. The die - cast zinc raw - material inventory was 13,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 10,230 tons. Currently, the overall downstream demand is relatively weak. Traditional hardware orders such as luggage zippers, small ornaments, and medals are in weak demand, and the current overall demand for real - estate hardware orders is also weak. Recently, affected by aluminum and copper prices, alloy profit support is insufficient, and some enterprises have raised the alloy processing fee. Under this influence, downstream customers also have a certain wait - and - see attitude and mainly make rigid purchases. Looking forward to next week, some enterprises plan to take a holiday to digest in - plant inventory. The start - up rate of zinc - oxide enterprises was 58.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%. The zinc - oxide raw - material inventory was 2,417 tons, and the finished - product inventory was 5,740 tons. In the rubber - grade zinc - oxide sector, orders from large - scale tire factories are relatively stable, but the demand from some small - and - medium - sized enterprises is weak. In the ceramic - grade zinc - oxide market, the demand in the coarse - ceramic market is still relatively average, and recently, some enterprises have reported that the demand in the high - end ceramic - grade zinc - oxide sector has also weakened. In addition, the demand for feed - grade and electronic - grade zinc oxide is relatively normal [51][52]. 3.2.5. Real - Estate Sales Continue to Hit Bottom, and Investment Declines Expand - The market trading momentum continues to decline. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate development investment expanded, and the year - on - year decline in commercial - housing sales volume also expanded. From January to September, the national newly built commercial - housing sales area was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, and the decline expanded by 0.8 percentage points. Real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year cumulatively, and the decline expanded by 1 percentage point. New construction decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points. The completed - area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 1.7 percentage points. The confidence in real - estate development investment is still weak. According to China Index Academy data, in September, the planned construction area of residential - land transactions in 300 cities decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the land - transfer fee decreased by 7.0% year - on - year. The year - on - year decline narrowed by 24.2 and 23.9 percentage points respectively compared with August. The industry's available funds are still under pressure, and the pressure on real - estate enterprises' funds directly affects the new - development and completion scale of the market. Currently, in addition to maintaining a positive attitude towards the development and construction of some products, enterprises mainly focus on optimizing and revitalizing existing inventory. In the short term, the overall scale - contraction situation in the industry will not change. In core cities, the incremental construction scale is expected to stabilize with the support of the fundamentals [66]. 3.2.6. The Policy of Trading in Old Cars for New Ones in the Auto Market Continues to Show Results - July and August are the traditional off - seasons for auto consumption, and the sales rush at the end of June overdrafted subsequent demand to a certain extent. However, the overall auto - market heat remained at a relatively high level, and the auto market still took the "dual - new" policy of trading in old cars for new ones and scrapping and renewing as the core growth point. In reality, affected by seasonal factors in summer and the transitional adjustment of the policy of trading in old cars for new ones, the growth rate slowed down periodically. In August, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones restarted in various places, and many provinces refined the subsidy - distribution mechanism. Coupled with the intensification of local stimulus policies, the auto market showed a gradual recovery trend. According to the analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues to show results. Some regions that suspended the implementation of the policy resumed subsidies, and policies such as consumer - loan support stabilized consumer confidence. Enterprises continued to launch new models, helping the passenger - car market to operate stably, and sales increased year - on - year. According to the CAAM, in September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 2.9 million and 2.859 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16% and 12.5% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 15.9% and 13.2% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 21.241 million and 21.246 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and 13.7% respectively. In September, auto exports were 652,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% and a year - on - year increase of 21%. From January to September, auto exports were 4.95 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. Many places have made frequent dynamic adjustments to the policy of trading in old cars for new ones. Some regions such as Jiangsu, Guangxi, and Qinghai have announced the suspension of auto - replacement and renewal subsidies. On the one hand, to ensure the orderly use of the third - and fourth - batch funds by the end of the year, the fund - use plan is refined by field and time. On the other hand, the national subsidy in 2025 is a phased measure, and it is difficult to have the same - scale subsidy in 2026. The exemption amount for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, and the consumer - loan discount rate will be weakened [72][73]. 3.2.7. The Scheduled Production of White Goods for Both Domestic Sales and Exports Declines - According to the latest scheduled - production reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in November 2025 is 2.847 million units, a 17.7% year - on - year decrease from the actual production in the same period last year. The scheduled production of all three major white

Report Information - Report Title: Index Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, Huang Wenxin, He Zhuoqiao [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In October, the new round of Sino-US game became the main factor affecting the market. The overall A-share market oscillated. After the Sino-US leaders' meeting in Busan, South Korea, although the negotiation results sent positive signals, the market weakened after the positive news landed due to over - inflated market expectations. The Fed cut interest rates in October, but the post - meeting statement was slightly hawkish, and the probability of a December rate cut declined. The economic data in September showed increased fundamental pressure, and policies were needed to boost the economy. With the easing of the external environment and the "15th Five - Year Plan" injecting new policy expectations into the market, the stock index is expected to continue its medium - to long - term strong trend after short - term shock consolidation at the key pressure level of 4,000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. The market style should still focus on the dumbbell strategy, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Market行情回顾 - Since the beginning of the year, the A - share market has shown a trend of "short - term correction followed by a strong run, and a rebound after a sharp decline due to external shocks". Before the Spring Festival, the market was cautious due to uncertainties after the new US president took office. After the Spring Festival, the technology sector led the market under the influence of positive news. In late March, the market corrected again due to approaching the annual report disclosure period. After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the A - share market broke through the support level. Then, with factors such as "national team" funds and better - than - expected Sino - US tariff negotiations, the index rebounded. After the "anti - involution" policy and the trillion - level infrastructure project of the Yajiang Hydropower Station, relevant concept sectors rotated and rose. After the "9·3 Parade", the market became cautious, and the index consolidated at a high level [8]. - In October, the Sino - US game affected the market. The overall A - share market oscillated. After the US softened its stance, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4,000 points. After the negotiation results in Malaysia and the leaders' meeting in South Korea were finalized, the market became cautious again, and the index slightly corrected. In October, the Wind All - A Index slightly declined by 0.03%. Among the major broad - based indices, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.10%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.56%, and the small and medium - cap index fell 1.15%. In terms of market style, the stable and financial sectors led the rise, while the growth sector led the decline [9]. 1.2 Industry Sector Situation - In October, among the CSI 300 sub - industries, the energy, utilities, and materials sectors led the rise, with increases of 9.50%, 4.35%, and 3.48% respectively, while the pharmaceutical, information, and real estate sectors led the decline, with decreases of 7.28%, 3.93%, and 3.80% respectively. Among the CSI 500 sub - industries, the utilities, energy, and raw materials sectors led the rise, with increases of 7.85%, 4.06%, and 2.46% respectively, while the real estate, communication, and optional consumption sectors led the decline, with decreases of 11.24%, 5.11%, and 4.94% respectively. At the first - level industry level, the coal, steel, and non - ferrous metal sectors led the rise, with increases of 10.02%, 5.16%, and 5.00% respectively, while the media, beauty care, and automobile sectors declined, with decreases of 6.04%, 3.84%, and 3.58% respectively [15]. 1.3 Valuation Comparison - As of October 31, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.1146, 11.7732, 33.3983, and 47.5311 times respectively, changing by - 0.3007, - 0.0916, - 2.4316, and - 0.9139 compared with the beginning of the month, and were at the 83.66%, 87.82%, 79.06%, and 76.34% percentile levels in the past ten years respectively [25]. 2. Futures Indicator Analysis 2.1 Transaction and Position Analysis - In October, the trading volume of stock index futures decreased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 13.61, 6.33, 15.42, and 24.38 million lots respectively, decreasing by 1.93, 0.24, 0.63, and 3.98 million lots compared with the previous month. The positions of stock index futures mainly decreased. The average daily positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 26.75, 9.80, 25.44, and 35.98 million lots respectively, changing by - 0.77, - 0.35, 0.15, and - 1.76 million lots compared with the previous month [26]. 2.2 Basis Analysis - As of October 31, the basis discounts of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 main contracts narrowed, increasing by 13.43, 33.37, and 30.29 respectively compared with the end of September to - 9.27, - 88.60, and - 138.47. The basis premium of the SSE 50 main contract widened, increasing by 3.58 to 3.65 compared with the end of September. In terms of the annualized basis rate, as of October 31, the annualized basis rate of the CSI 300 main contract was - 1.47%, increasing by 1.17 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the SSE 50 main contract was 0.89%, increasing by 1.01 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the CSI 500 main contract was - 8.88%, decreasing by 1.86 percentage points compared with the end of September; the annualized basis rate of the CSI 1000 main contract was - 13.55%, decreasing by 4.80 percentage points compared with the end of September. Overall, the discount of the IF main contract narrowed, the IH main contract changed from a discount to a premium, and the discounts of the IC and IM main contracts widened [28]. 2.3 Cross - Variety Spread Analysis - In October, large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively better. As of October 31, the CSI 300/SSE 50 ratio was 1.5410, at the 95.00% historical percentile level, decreasing by 0.0117 compared with the end of September; the CSI 1000/CSI 500 ratio was 1.0240, at the 29.40% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0020 compared with the end of September; the CSI 300/CSI 1000 ratio was 0.6182, at the 38.10% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0056 compared with the end of September; the SSE 50/CSI 1000 ratio was 0.4012, at the 30.80% historical percentile level, increasing by 0.0066 compared with the end of September [43]. 3. Macroeconomic Tracking 3.1 Sino - US New Round of Tariff Game, Leaders' Meeting as Market Sentiment Turning Point - Before the end of September, the Sino - US trade situation was generally easing, and a preliminary agreement was reached on the TikTok issue. In early October, the game between the two sides escalated unexpectedly. The US announced a series of measures, and China counterattacked. In the middle of the month, the US attitude softened, and the domestic capital market sentiment reversed. At the end of the month, the Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea, and reached consensus on multiple issues. However, the market weakened after the positive news landed [44][45][49]. 3.2 Fed's Interest Rate Cut in October, Post - Meeting Statement Slightly Hawkish - On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said that the December interest rate cut path was not preset, and the market interpreted it as hawkish. The probability of a December rate cut declined, and gold and US stocks oscillated lower in the short term [50]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data Analysis: Economic Slowdown in Q3, Widening Gap between Domestic and External Demand in September, Policy Boost Needed - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points lower than in Q2, indicating increased economic growth pressure. From the perspective of the production method, the year - on - year growth rates of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 4.0%, 4.2%, and 5.4% respectively. From the perspective of the expenditure method, the contributions of final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports to the economy in Q3 were 56.6%, 18.9%, and 24.5% respectively. In September, the gap between domestic and external demand widened further, and the cumulative investment growth rate turned negative. The domestic demand slowed down, while the external demand accelerated. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative, and the decline in real estate investment continued to expand [51][52]. 3.4 Liquidity Analysis: Margin Trading Balance Continuously Breaking Through, Slowdown in Household Deposit Transfer in September, Possibly Affected by Market Volatility - In October, the new social financing scale was 3.53 trillion yuan, 233.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.70%. The new RMB loans were 1608.1 billion yuan, 366.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year. M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year. In the stock market, margin trading funds continued to drive the market up in October, but the growth rate slowed down. As of October 30, the A - share margin trading balance was 2499.048 billion yuan, an increase of 104.932 billion yuan compared with the end of September, with the increment decreasing by 62.457 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The proportion of A - share margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 11.45% as of October 30, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points compared with the end of September, at the 97.65% percentile level in the past ten years. Since September, market volatility has intensified, leading to a slowdown in household deposit transfer [63][72]. 4. Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - Externally, after the Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan, South Korea, although the negotiation results were positive, the market weakened after the positive news landed. Domestically, the economic data in September showed increased fundamental pressure, and policies were needed to boost the economy. The "15th Five - Year Plan" provided policy guidance for the future market style. In terms of liquidity, the margin trading balance continued to break through historical highs and was currently oscillating at a high level. Future Fed rate cuts may bring new liquidity, but the slowdown in household deposit transfer needs further observation. Overall, with the easing of the external environment and the new policy expectations injected by the "15th Five - Year Plan", the stock index is expected to continue its medium - to long - term strong trend after short - term shock consolidation at the key pressure level of 4,000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. The market style should still focus on the dumbbell strategy, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 [73]