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金融期货周报-20260116
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 11:12
Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In the bond market, the negative factors are gradually materializing in January. There may be allocation opportunities during the period of large supply - demand mismatch in the first quarter. After the structural interest rate cut this week, the bond market may enter a policy observation period and remain volatile before March. For the shipping index, the spot price has reached its peak, and with the resumption of shipping by airlines, there may be short - selling opportunities for the April contract during the off - season [56][61][83] Summary by Directory I. Treasury Bonds 1. This Week's Market Review - **Treasury Futures Market**: All treasury futures contracts showed price increases this week. For example, the TL2603 contract had a weekly closing price of 111.19, a weekly settlement price of 111.26, a weekly increase of 0.32, and a weekly increase rate of 0.29%. In terms of strategy performance, long - term futures outperformed spot bonds in the long - end, while in the 5 - year and 2 - year segments, futures underperformed spot bonds. There are positive arbitrage opportunities in the 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts. Currently, the 30 - year basis is relatively high, and short - selling the basis can be considered. Due to the poor liquidity of the 2606 contract, it is not recommended to participate in the inter - period strategy. A flattening strategy for cross - variety can be focused on [7][8][11] - **Bond Spot Market**: The tightness of funds eased, and short - term yields declined significantly. By Thursday this week, the 10 - year treasury yield was reported at 2.3025%, down 0.75bp from last Friday, and the 10 - year CDB yield was reported at 2.0153%, down 1.23bp. Most US Treasury yields increased. By Thursday this week, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.1700%, down 1bp from last Friday, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 3.5600%, up 2bp from last Friday [35] - **Funding**: This week, the repurchase operations were staggered and renewed. The total net investment was 111.28 billion yuan, but there was a temporary shortage of funds on the 13th. The funding situation returned to looseness in the second half of the week, and there was no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks. The funding interest rates fluctuated. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained stable around 1.63 - 1.64% [38][39] - **Interest Rate Derivatives**: In terms of interest rate swaps, the yields of swap varieties fluctuated this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable [54] 2. Market Analysis - **Recent Market Logic**: In December, the bond market was weakly volatile. In January, negative factors are gradually materializing. After the implementation of the public fund fee new regulations and facing the large supply in January and the credit impulse demand at the beginning of the year, the bond market may have allocation opportunities during the supply - demand mismatch period in the first quarter. After the structural interest rate cut this week, the possibility of a short - term reserve requirement ratio cut or another interest rate cut is low, but the central bank's loose orientation remains unchanged [56] - **This Week's Fundamental Situation**: In December, the export growth rate continued to exceed expectations, mainly driven by the accelerated growth of exports to ASEAN. The total social financing increased less year - on - year, mainly due to the high - volume issuance of government bonds in the same period last year. However, credit continued to expand, especially the medium - and long - term loans of enterprises increased significantly year - on - year, while the willingness of residents to increase leverage was still weak [57] - **Next Week's Bond Market Outlook**: After the release of economic data next week, the market will enter a data vacuum period for about 1.5 months. After the structural interest rate cut this week, the market may enter a policy observation period, and the loose expectation may not heat up significantly before March. The bond market may maintain a volatile trend [61] 3. Next Week's Open - Market Maturity and Important Economic Calendar - **Open - Market Maturity**: A total of 110.15 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature next week [63] - **Important Economic Data and Events**: China will release GDP data for 2025 and the LPR quotation [66] II. Shipping Index 1. Market Review - The shipping index rose sharply on Monday due to short - term disturbances but fell significantly in the second half of the week as the sentiment ebbed and returned to the fundamentals. The spot price was adjusted downward, and the shipping capacity in January and February was high. The cease - fire agreement in Gaza also contributed to the decline [67] 2. Container Shipping Market Situation - **Spot Market**: The spot price was stable in the first half of January, but shipping companies have started to lower the quotes for the second half of January, indicating that the peak of the spot price may have passed [73] - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals of Container Shipping**: On the supply side, the European container shipping capacity in January was significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the potential shipping capacity is expected to continue to grow. Although the actual shipping capacity in January was basically the same as in previous years, the shipping capacity will be relatively high in early February. The easing of the Red Sea situation and the resumption of shipping by airlines may put downward pressure on the index. On the demand side, the European economy is slowly improving, and the demand - side support for container shipping prices is limited [79][80] 3. Market Outlook - The peak of the spot price has passed, and it is likely that the shipping routes will resume normal operation this year. Attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunities of the April contract during the off - season [83]
建信期货铁矿石日评-20260116
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 01:40
1. Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 2. Market Quotes 2.1 Futures Contracts Quotes on January 15 - RB2605: Closed at 3160 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, with a trading volume of 754,088 lots and an open interest of 1,685,122 lots, a decrease of 6,339 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.16 billion yuan [5] - HC2605: Closed at 3307 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a trading volume of 326,133 lots and an open interest of 1,448,345 lots, a decrease of 530 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.00 billion yuan [5] - SS2603: Closed at 14415 yuan/ton, up 3.52%, with a trading volume of 489,832 lots and an open interest of 145,444 lots, an increase of 10,565 lots, and a capital inflow of 1.53 billion yuan [5] - I2605: Closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 1.03%, with a trading volume of 252,986 lots and an open interest of 652,402 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots, and a capital outflow of 1.50 billion yuan [5] 2.2 Futures Contracts' Top 20 Long - Short Positions on January 15 - RB2605: The top 20 long positions were 1,064,999 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots; the top 20 short positions were 1,065,708 lots, an increase of 5,112 lots, and the long - short difference was -12,008 lots, with a deviation of -1.13% [8] - HC2605: The top 20 long positions were 1,055,923 lots, a decrease of 37 lots; the top 20 short positions were 1,059,878 lots, an increase of 2,647 lots, and the long - short difference was -2,684 lots, with a deviation of -0.25% [8] - SS2603: The top 20 long positions were 102,619 lots, an increase of 5,928 lots; the top 20 short positions were 114,495 lots, an increase of 9,908 lots, and the long - short difference was -3,980 lots, with a deviation of -3.67% [8] - J2605: The top 20 long positions were 25,469 lots, a decrease of 540 lots; the top 20 short positions were 27,514 lots, a decrease of 640 lots, and the long - short difference was 100 lots, with a deviation of 0.38% [8] - JM2605: The top 20 long positions were 250,835 lots, a decrease of 2,077 lots; the top 20 short positions were 345,552 lots, an increase of 11,642 lots, and the long - short difference was -13,719 lots, with a deviation of -4.60% [8] - I2605: The top 20 long positions were 411,151 lots, a decrease of 911 lots; the top 20 short positions were 433,889 lots, a decrease of 8,428 lots, and the long - short difference was 7,517 lots, with a deviation of 1.78% [8] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On January 15, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated downward, opened lower, fluctuated and declined, rebounded slightly in the afternoon, and weakened again at the end of the session, closing at 813.0 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [7] - In the spot market on January 15, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes decreased by 0.7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 6 - 9 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract was moving downward, the K and J values turned back, and the D value continued to decline; the daily MACD indicator's red bar of the iron ore 2605 contract has been narrowing for 3 consecutive weeks [9] 3.2 Market Outlook - Supply side: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil have been declining for two consecutive weeks, with last week's shipments dropping by 1.333 million tons to 25.332 million tons. The arrival volume has been increasing in the past two weeks, with last week's arrival volume increasing by 1.64 million tons to 29.204 million tons. It is expected that the arrival volume may remain at a high level this week and then gradually decline [10] - Demand side: The total output of the five major steel products increased slightly again last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased for three consecutive weeks, returning to 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons. The resilience of iron ore demand is very strong. This is due to the resumption of production of some overhauled production lines after the New Year's Day holiday and the repair of steel profits. The profitability rate of steel mills has remained around 37% - 38% in recent weeks. The blast furnace profit of rebar has turned positive and continues to rise, and the production profits of rebar electric furnace and hot - rolled coil, although still negative, are close to the break - even point [11] - Inventory side: Currently, steel mills are restocking on - demand, and the available days of inventory decreased by 1 day to 19 days compared with last week. However, the restocking stage before the Spring Festival will start in mid - to - late January, and the restocking demand will boost the ore price to some extent. The port inventory has been accumulating since the fourth quarter of 2025, with the inventory at 45 ports reaching nearly 1.63 billion tons, a new high since April 2018. However, the port inventory is structurally differentiated, with more inventory in the hands of traders, and the proportion of steel mills' inventory continues to decline. There may be a supply gap for the medium - and low - grade iron ore favored by steel mills, resulting in strong prices [11] - Overall, the previous increase in ore prices was affected by the strong rise of the overall commodity market and the marginal strengthening of the iron ore's own fundamentals. Before the Spring Festival, the restocking demand will further support the ore price. It is expected that the ore price may rebound after a decline, but the high port inventory will also bring upward pressure, and the upward space is relatively limited. At least in the week before the Spring Festival, the ore price will remain resilient [12] 4. Industry News - On January 15, the central bank deputy governor Zou Lan said that the central bank will launch two policy measures. One is to lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to improve banks' enthusiasm for credit investment in key areas. The one - year interest rates of various re - loans will be lowered from the current 1.5% to 1.25% [13] - Starting from January 19, 2026, the central bank will lower the re - loan and rediscount interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. After the reduction, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year agricultural and small - business re - loan interest rates will be 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% respectively, the rediscount rate will be 1.5%, the pledged supplementary lending rate will be 1.75%, and the special structural monetary policy tool interest rate will be 1.25% [13] 5. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the May contract, the shipment volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes of iron ore at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volumes of iron ore at main ports, the available days of steel mills' iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and shipping volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mills' inventory of five major steel products [15][21][23]
碳酸锂期货日报-20260116
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 01:38
Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The carbonate lithium futures price bottomed out and rebounded, closing with a doji star. The total open interest decreased by 11,436 lots, showing a trend of long - position exits. The spot price dropped to 158,500, a decrease of 3,350 from the previous day, and the spot discount to the futures widened. The prices of ternary cathode and lithium iron phosphate remained flat. The downstream showed resistance to price drops. This week, the weekly output of carbonate lithium increased by 70 tons and inventory decreased by 263 tons. The expectation of lithium - battery export rush is leading to early inventory stocking by the downstream, and the demand - side support is gradually emerging. It is expected that the carbonate lithium futures will stop falling [11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures price bottomed out and rebounded, hitting the previous day's low again. Total open interest decreased by 11,436 lots, indicating a long - position exit trend [11] - The spot price was reported at 158,500, a 3,350 decrease from yesterday, and the spot discount to the futures widened [11] - The prices of ternary cathode and lithium iron phosphate remained flat, and the downstream showed resistance to price drops [11] - This week, the weekly output of carbonate lithium increased by 70 tons and inventory decreased by 263 tons. The expectation of lithium - battery export rush is leading to early inventory stocking by the downstream, and the demand - side support is gradually emerging [11] 2. Industry News - Australian lithium mining company Elevra Lithium plans to advance its lithium - ore (spodumene) production expansion plan in its Quebec project by two years, aiming to complete construction by the end of 2029. The expansion will increase spodumene production to 315,000 tons per year from the current 200,000 tons per year. The revised plan allows for a more dispersed capital investment over a longer period [14] - After a months - long review on whether foreign imports threaten US national security, US President Trump decided not to impose new tariffs on key mineral imports for now. He will seek to reach agreements with foreign countries through negotiations to ensure an adequate supply of key minerals in the US and relieve supply - chain vulnerabilities. Trump is considering a "price - floor" mechanism rather than relying solely on traditional percentage tariffs to promote supply - chain development within the US ally camp. He also warned that import restrictions including tariffs may be imposed if satisfactory agreements cannot be reached within the specified time [14]
建信期货铜期货日报-20260116
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 01:36
Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The Shanghai copper market showed a volatile decline, but the decline narrowed in the afternoon as risk appetite recovered. After the market closed, the People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in the monetary policy tool rate and indicated there is room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts this year. The supply of copper is expected to contract, and demand may pick up as copper prices correct. It is expected that the inventory will start to decline next week. Although the short - term spot pressure is increasing, the loose Chinese monetary policy will offset the pressure, and copper prices will oscillate to digest the inventory pressure [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. Trump postponed the tariff increase on key minerals, leading to significant selling in the metal sector. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell below the trend line. However, risk appetite recovered in the afternoon, and the decline in copper prices narrowed. After the market closed, the central bank cut the monetary policy tool rate [10] - **Spot Market**: The copper spot price dropped by 1340 to 102,575. The spot premium rose to 200, and the monthly spread in the last trading month widened with a stronger premium. The social inventory increased by 2.75 to 32.09 million tons compared to Monday due to the concentrated arrival of domestic copper during the delivery cycle [10] - **Import and Supply Outlook**: The loss of spot copper imports narrowed to 1465. The arrival of imported copper will remain low, and the arrival of domestic copper will also decrease after the delivery. Supply is expected to contract [10] - **Demand and Inventory Outlook**: Demand may pick up as copper prices decline. It is expected that the inventory will start to decline next week. The current spot C - L prices are basically the same. The high inventory in the COMEX market may impact the LME market, and the LME 0 - 3 back structure has declined, increasing short - term spot pressure [10] 2. Industry News - **Jiangxi Copper**: Jiangxi Copper's subsidiary signed an investment option agreement with a subsidiary of First Quantum Minerals Limited for exploration project cooperation. The signing of this agreement does not constitute a related - party transaction or a major asset restructuring [10] - **Elemental Group**: The largest recycling company in Poland plans to invest $8 billion in two core projects named "Polvolt", with two - thirds of the funds for a copper smelting and refining plant and the rest for a power battery metal refinery. The projects have received EU and Polish government subsidies, and the company is looking for minority - equity partners, likely from Asia [10][11] - **US Policy**: US President Trump decided to temporarily refrain from imposing new tariffs on key mineral imports. He will seek to negotiate agreements with foreign countries and is considering a "price floor" mechanism. He also warned that import restrictions including tariffs may be imposed if satisfactory agreements cannot be reached [11]
建信期货钢材日评-20260116
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 01:33
021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3033782 交易咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 交易咨询证书号: Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 1 月 16 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | | | 表1:1月15日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、%、手、亿元) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | ...
建信期货原油日报-20260116
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 01:17
行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 16 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20260116
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 01:17
021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 行业 鸡蛋 日期 2026 年 1 月 16 日 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 存栏方面,目前处于历史同期高位。根据最新数据,截至 2025 年 12 月末, 全国在产蛋鸡月度存栏量约 13.44 亿只,11 月末为 13.52 亿只,10 月末为 13.59 亿只 ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20260116
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 01:17
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, the price increase in early January was well - implemented. The SCFIS index rebounded above 1900 points on Monday, rising 8.9% to 1956.39 points. However, shipping companies recently lowered their quotes for late January. After the peak shipping season, they may cut prices to attract cargo, and the peak of spot prices may be approaching [8]. - This week, the index fluctuated greatly. The rush for tax refunds and the escalation of the Red Sea situation, which hit the resumption of shipping, brought significant disturbances. The short - term bullish factors may be difficult to disprove, and sentiment may support the contracts to run strongly [8]. Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The price increase in early January was well - implemented. The SCFIS index rose 8.9% to 1956.39 points on Monday. Shipping companies are lowering quotes for late January, and the peak of spot prices may appear after the peak shipping season [8]. - Futures Market: The index fluctuated greatly this week. The 04 contract for the off - season, which had previously factored in the information of the Red Sea shipping resumption, rebounded significantly. Short - term bullish sentiment may support the contracts to run strongly [8]. 2. Industry News - Overall Market: From January 5th to 9th, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends [9]. - Economic Data: China's official comprehensive PMI in December 2025 was 50.7, up 1 percentage point month - on - month. The eurozone's unemployment rate in November 2025 dropped to 6.3%. US private - sector employment increased by 41,000 in December [9][10]. - Route Prices: On January 9th, the Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate increased by 1.7%, the Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate increased by 2.8%, the Shanghai - US West basic port market freight rate increased by 1.4%, and the Shanghai - US East basic port market freight rate increased by 3.1% [9][10]. - Geopolitical Events: On January 12, 2026, the US and the UK launched a large - scale military strike against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi rebels warned of a strong response if Saudi Arabia took military action [10]. - Shipping Company Policies: In December 2025, many shipping companies such as MSC and CMA CGM announced price increases for multiple international routes. There were uncertainties about Maersk's resumption of Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation [10]. 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: From January 5th to 12th, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route increased by 8.9% to 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS for the US West route increased by 5.9% to 1323.98 points [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market: Provided trading data for EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts on January 15th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, and various freight rates [18][21]
建信期货股指日评-20260116
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 01:17
Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Market Review - On January 15, the Wind All - A index declined with shrinking volume. It rose slightly at the opening, then fluctuated downward, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing down 0.16%. Over 3,000 stocks in the market fell. The CSI 300 closed up 0.20%, while the SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.21%, 0.05%, and 0.20% respectively. In the futures market, the main contracts of IF, IC, and IM closed up 0.14%, 0.11%, and 0.48% respectively, and the main contract of IH closed down 0.19% [6]. Market Outlook - Overseas, many Fed officials stated their commitment to policy independence, and Kashkari explicitly opposed interest - rate cuts. Domestically, after the market closed on this day, the central bank announced that starting from January 19, 2026, it would cut the rediscount rate and relending rate by 0.25 percentage points. After the cut, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year relending rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses are 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% respectively, the rediscount rate is 1.5%, the pledged supplementary lending rate is 1.75%, and the special structural monetary policy tool rate is 1.25%. In terms of funds, the market volume shrank significantly below 3 trillion, indicating that market sentiment cooled after the shock of the news of "adjusting the margin for margin trading" the previous day. However, the support around the Shanghai Composite Index at 4100 points is relatively strong, and the post - market news may boost market sentiment again. Overall, as the expectation of domestic economic improvement strengthens, the slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is gradually stabilizing. Maintain a long - term bullish mindset and mainly adopt a strategy of low - buying [7]. Industry News - On January 15, according to Cailian Press, Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the central bank said that the People's Bank of China will introduce two policy measures. One is to cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools to encourage banks to increase credit supply in key areas. The interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools will be cut by 0.25 percentage points, and the one - year relending rate will be cut from the current 1.5% to 1.25%. To better play the incentive role of structural monetary policy tools and guide financial institutions to increase support for major strategies, key areas, and weak links, the central bank decided to cut the rediscount rate and relending rate by 0.25 percentage points starting from January 19, 2026 [31]. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including the performance of domestic major indices, market style performance, industry sector performance, trading volume of Wind All - A, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - delivery spread trend, share statistics of major ETF funds, and trading volume statistics of major ETFs, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][13][20]
建信期货国债日报-20260116
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 01:17
日期 2026 年 1 月 16 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 国债日报 #summary# 每日报告 | | 表1:国债期货1月15日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.280 | 111.440 | 111.190 | 111.260 | -0.090 | -0.08 ...