行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 原油 ...

日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 行业 集运指数日报 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货10月20日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,098.8 | 1,107.8 | 1,100.1 | 1,102.6 | 1.3 | 0. ...

1. Report Basic Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestion - Carbonate lithium futures fluctuated slightly down, with the 11 - 01 spread expanding to 240, and near - month contracts performing slightly weaker. The spot was continuously at a discount to the futures, with the spot price rising by 650 to 74,000 during the day, Australian ore rising by 10 to 860, and lithium mica ore remaining flat at 1,825. The production losses of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica were narrowed to 1,852 and 6,553 respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 79,000, and the demand from downstream electrolyte and battery manufacturers continued to pick up [9]. - The current carbonate lithium market features high supply, high demand, and social inventory reduction. It is expected that with the continuous increase in battery production, domestic carbonate lithium inventory will continue to decline, which will support the price of carbonate lithium. Therefore, the downside space of carbonate lithium price is limited, but the upside space depends on the acceleration of social inventory reduction [9]. 3. Industry News Import Data - In September 2025, China's carbonate lithium imports were 19,600 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease and a 20.5% year - on - year increase. Imports from Chile were 10,800 tons, a 30.8% month - on - month decrease and a 22.5% year - on - year decrease. Imports from Argentina were 6,948 tons, a 63.4% month - on - month increase and a 242.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, China's carbonate lithium imports were 173,000 tons, a 5.2% year - on - year increase. In September, China's lithium hydroxide imports were 1,473 tons, a 20.3% month - on - month increase and a 74.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, China's lithium hydroxide imports were 10,654 tons, an 81.9% year - on - year increase [12]. - In September 2025, China's ternary cathode material imports were 8,906 tons, a 17.6% month - on - month increase and an 87.8% year - on - year increase. Among them, the imports of lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NCM type) were 6,871 tons, and the imports of lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA type) were 2,034 tons. From January to September, the cumulative imports of cathode materials in China were 53,477 tons, a 5.3% year - on - year decrease [12]. Renewable Energy Report - According to the latest report of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), although the global new installed capacity of renewable energy reached a record 581.9 GW in 2024, the current growth rate is still far from the 11.2 TW target set by COP28 for 2030. To achieve this goal, the world needs to add about 1.122 TW of new renewable energy installed capacity annually from 2025 to 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 16.6%. Photovoltaic is the main growth driver, with 452 GW added in 2024, accounting for nearly 80% of the total renewable energy increment. To achieve the 6.15 TW photovoltaic target in 2030, the average annual new installed capacity needs to reach 716 GW. Meanwhile, the growth of energy storage facilities was strong in 2024, with the global new energy storage capacity reaching 74 GW, doubling that of 2023. IRENA called on countries to update their national climate commitments before COP30, double their renewable energy targets, and increase annual investment to at least $1.4 trillion to make up for the current development gap and promote the clean energy transition [12][13]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the support of fundamentals. Although the domestic peak season is slightly lower than expected, considering the production cuts of domestic smelters due to raw material shortages and the good demand in the power grid and auto market at the end of the year, the fundamental support logic remains unchanged [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper rose first and then fell. The market risk preference rebounded due to the possible new - round Sino - US negotiation. The release of China's macro - economic data and the convening of an important meeting strengthened the policy stimulus expectation, pushing up the price. But the increase narrowed in the afternoon due to increased selling. The spot price rose by 855 to 85630, and the premium rose by 5 to 60. The SMM statistics showed that the social inventory increased by 0.91 million tons to 18.66 million tons. The spot import loss narrowed to 620, LME0 - 3 turned to - 16.83, and the LME inventory decreased by 50 tons to 13715 tons [10] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The supply pressure of domestic spot is expected to decline as the subsequent domestic arrival volume is expected to decrease. The domestic market has continuous inventory accumulation while the overseas market has inventory reduction [10] Group 5: Industry News - **Import and Export Data**: In September 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2,586,873.52 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The imports of refined copper were 374,075.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. The exports of unwrought copper and copper products in September were 95,869 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.0%; the cumulative exports from January to September were 1,142,833 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in September were 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%; the cumulative imports from January to September were 4.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [11][12] - **Mining Incident**: MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru is facing the impact of informal mining activities. Illegal miners have extracted about 90,000 tons of copper in the past 15 years, which is higher than the 74,000 tons estimated in mid - 2024. The Sulfobamba community where the mine is located has mined copper on its own and refused to sell land for MMG's development [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Black Metal Research Team: Researchers include Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Conditions on October 20 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Trading Volume**: RB2601 closed at 3045 yuan/ton with a -0.03% change, trading 1,232,540 lots; HC2601 closed at 3215 yuan/ton with a -0.12% change, trading 539,570 lots; SS2512 closed at 12595 yuan/ton with a -0.16% change, trading 124,780 lots [5] - **Position Changes**: RB2601's open interest increased by 1,609 lots; HC2601's increased by 7,152 lots [5] - **Fund Flows**: RB2601 had a 0.15 - billion - yuan inflow; HC2601 had a 0.28 - billion - yuan inflow [5] 3.2 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: Some rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices declined. Rebar prices in Nanjing and Hefei dropped 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities, 10 - 20 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil prices in Zhengzhou dropped 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities, 10 - 20 yuan/ton [8] 3.3 Technical Indicators - Rebar 2601 contract's daily KDJ indicator showed a golden cross, and hot - rolled coil 2601's was close to a golden cross. Both contracts' daily MACD green bars narrowed [8] 4. Market Outlook 4.1 News and Policy - Trump's attitude towards China - US trade tariffs softened, which eased market concerns. He will meet with China in about two weeks and is optimistic about the negotiation. The US Treasury Secretary also said the meeting may lead to a broader trade agreement [9][10] 4.2 Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand**: In the past 6 weeks, the weekly output of five major steel products decreased slightly but remained high; weekly demand rebounded from the lowest since late February but was lower than the end - September level; social inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly from the highest since mid - April [10] - **Raw Materials**: In the past 2 weeks, iron ore inventories of 247 steel mills and imported sintered powder ore inventories of 64 sample steel mills dropped significantly; in the past 4 weeks, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased by 2.2% on top of a 3.7% increase in the previous 4 weeks, and arrivals increased by 11.9% after a 1.4% decrease in the previous 4 weeks; coke profit was briefly positive and then turned negative, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented on October 1; steel mills reduced coke inventories after the holiday; coking coal prices remained firm [11] 4.3 Forecast - Steel demand has seasonal improvement, but trade conflicts remain uncertain. Steel futures prices are expected to be more volatile, with a possible first - decline - then - rebound trend. Attention should be paid to market expectations before China - US trade negotiations, raw material prices after most steel mills' profits turn negative, and the impact of low temperatures on terminal demand [11] 5. Industry News - **Economic Growth**: The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the Q3 GDP growth slowdown to international trade protectionism and domestic economic structural adjustment [12] - **Policy Adjustment**: The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration adjusted the VAT policy for wind power generation and nuclear power [13] - **Production Data**: From January to September 2025, national coke production was 377.16 million tons (up 3.5% YoY), pig iron production was 645.86 million tons (down 1.1% YoY), crude steel production was 746.25 million tons (down 2.9% YoY), and steel production was 1.10385 billion tons (up 5.4% YoY). In September, national coal production was 411.51 million tons (down 1.8% YoY), and industrial power generation was 826.2 billion kWh (up 1.5% YoY) [13] - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan (down 13.9% YoY), construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters (down 9.4% YoY), new commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters (down 5.5% YoY), and sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan (down 7.9% YoY) [13] - **Railway Transport**: In the first three quarters of 2025, national railway freight volume was 3.912 billion tons (up 2.8% YoY) [14] - **Corporate Performance**: Baotou Steel's semi - annual asset - liability ratio in 2025 decreased by 0.42 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and financial expenses decreased by 6.29% YoY [14] - **International Trade**: In September 2025, China exported 6.4 million tons of steel plates (down 6.1% YoY) and 1.68 million tons of steel bars (up 25.0% YoY). In September, the iron ore export volume of Port Hedland in Australia was 48.5673 million tons (down 0.48% YoY, up 9.58% MoM) [14] 6. Data Overview - The report presents various steel - related data charts, including prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [16][17][20]

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 鸡蛋 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term surge in precious metal prices may have ended due to the possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions, but the uptrend may continue until 2026 due to factors like Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while being aware of short - term adjustment risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions through this week's economic and trade consultations in Malaysia has alleviated market concerns, leading to significant price drops in gold and silver on Friday. The short - term surge may be over, and investors should watch for short - term adjustment risks. However, factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide safe - haven demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals, and the uptrend may last until 2026. This week, key events to monitor include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold oscillated between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressure. Easing international trade conditions and a strong global stock market weakened safe - haven demand. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's rate - cut process, and under the Trump administration's pressure, the rate - cut pace may be faster. The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to mid - October, London gold started a new uptrend, soaring to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record of $54.47 per ounce. The bullish factors will continue to work, but short - term price surges bring adjustment risks, and bullish factors may weaken periodically. Investors are advised to be bullish overall, and short - hedgers can reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11] 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump pressured the Ukrainian president to give up territory and proposed an agreement based on the current front line, which was accepted by Zelensky [17]. - Trump continued to signal trade - tension easing, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from so - called reciprocal tariffs and willing to exclude more products when trade agreements are reached [17]. - S&P downgraded France's long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating from "AA -" to "A+", the second downgrade in a year and a half. Fitch had downgraded France's rating in September, and Moody's will announce its latest rating decision on the 24th [17]. - The US and South Korea have made substantial progress in most trade negotiation issues, and the possibility of reaching a trade agreement before the APEC meeting is high [18].

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 10 月 21 日， ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from October to November was OI2601+330, and from December to January was OI2601+270. The basis price of Grade 1 rapeseed oil from October to November was OI2601+430, and from December to January was OI2601+370. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in October was Y2501+210, from October to November was Y2501+220, from December to January was Y2601+280, from February to May was Y2501+150, from March to May was Y2501+130, and from May to July was Y2501+10. The basis price of Grade 3 soybean oil was 01+170, and the basis price of crude soybean oil was 01+50. The quotation of palm oil by Dongguan traders remained stable, with the price of 24-degree palm oil at 01-70. [7] - Market Analysis: The Malaysian market was closed due to holidays. The three major domestic oils continued to adjust, mainly dragged down by the recent decline in the international crude oil market. The upcoming restart of Sino-US trade negotiations and the visit of the Canadian Foreign Minister to China affected market sentiment in the short term. The strong performance of CBOT soybeans boosted the domestic soybean oil market. The rapeseed oil market gave back its previous gains, and the spread between January and May contracts weakened again, but the spot basis continued to rise. The news about palm oil was mixed, and Indonesia's B50 policy was positive for the distant contracts. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the medium- and long-term strategy is to buy on dips and roll over long positions. [7] Group 3: Industry News - Domestic Palm Oil Inventory: As of the end of the 42nd week of 2025, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 549,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week. The contract volume was 40,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of 24-degree and below palm oil was 530,000 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of high-grade palm oil was 19,000 tons, the same as the previous week. [8] - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: According to data from the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from October 1 to 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.86% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 5.76% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.21% month-on-month. [8] - Malaysian Palm Oil Exports: According to data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 to 15 was 606,292 tons, an increase of 49.8% compared with the export volume of 404,688 tons from September 1 to 15. The export volume to China was 55,300 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the same period last month. [8] - Indian Palm Oil Imports: The Indian Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) said that India's palm oil imports in September dropped to the lowest level since May as refineries switched to cheaper soybean oil, and the import volume of soybean oil reached a three-year high. India's palm oil imports in September decreased by 16.3% to 829,017 tons, the lowest level since May. [8][9] Group 4: Data Overview - Crop Planting Progress: Brazilian farmers have planted soybeans on 23.27% of the expected area in 2025, compared with 9.33% in the same period last year. [14] - US Soybean Crushing: The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released monthly crushing data on Wednesday, showing that the soybean crushing volume in September increased significantly, reaching the fourth highest monthly level on record and the highest level in the same period in history. This was because the US soybean processing industry had recovered from the seasonal equipment maintenance shutdown before the autumn soybean harvest, and the production pace had accelerated significantly. [14]

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 工业硅日报 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...