Jian Xin Qi Huo

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建信期货多晶硅日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon contract continued its rebound trend, with the PS2509 closing price at 52,985 yuan/ton, a gain of 6.34%. The market is currently in a post - rally consolidation phase, and the supply - demand contradiction of polysilicon is not intensified. The fundamentals, though not the short - term dominant factor, restrict the price increase. The supply in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, meeting about 56.82GW of downstream demand, while the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells dropped to around 52GW, keeping the supply - demand in a loose pattern. The average price of spot N - grade re - feed material is 47,200 yuan/ton. The price increase of silicon materials has not been transmitted to components and the end - market. The futures and spot prices are rigidly supported by policies and are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range volatile operation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon contract PS2509 closed at 52,985 yuan/ton, up 6.34%. The trading volume was 592,822 lots, and the open interest was 139,739 lots, with a net increase of 2,143 lots [4]. - **Outlook**: The commodity market is in a post - rally consolidation. The supply - demand of polysilicon is in a loose pattern. In August, the polysilicon production schedule increased to 125,000 tons, meeting about 56.82GW of demand, while the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells dropped to around 52GW. The price of silicon materials has not been transmitted downstream. The prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range volatile operation [4]. 3.2 Market News - On August 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,940 lots, a net increase of 240 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW [5]. - In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 127.3GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5].
建信期货沥青日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:12
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2510 opened at 3507 yuan/ton, closed at 3506 yuan/ton, with a high of 3516 yuan/ton, a low of 3491 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.57%, and a trading volume of 12.03 million lots; BU2511 opened at 3452 yuan/ton, closed at 3466 yuan/ton, with a high of 3474 yuan/ton, a low of 3446 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.46%, and a trading volume of 2.14 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan-Chongqing markets declined, while other regions remained stable. Rigid demand for asphalt was weak, which was negative for spot prices [6] - Supply and Demand: Some refineries planned to resume asphalt production, and the average operating load rate of asphalt plants would increase significantly. Demand improvement was limited due to events restricting project construction. Overall, asphalt supply and demand deteriorated, and a short-selling strategy was recommended [6] Group 3: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream trading price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3520 - 3870 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. Terminal demand remained weak, and some traders lowered their quotes [7] - South China Market: The mainstream trading price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3540 - 3550 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. Maoming Petrochemical adjusted its prices, and a new contract price from Gaofu also decreased, which was negative for market sentiment [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures Included: Asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts [8][13][16][19] - Data Source: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][11][12]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:12
行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料油) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业硅) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与展望 连塑 L2509 ...
建信期货纸浆日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:12
行业 纸浆日报 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 021-60635727 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635738 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(P ...
建信期货生猪日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:12
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply of pigs from the breeding side is increasing, and the current enthusiasm for slaughter is fair. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season, so the supply - demand relationship remains relatively loose, and the spot price of pigs may continue to be under pressure. [9] - In the short - term, the near - month 2509 futures contract of pigs will mainly fluctuate weakly following the spot price. In the long - term, the supply of pigs will increase slightly, while the 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak - demand contracts, and their prices may fluctuate strongly. Policies such as the anti - involution initiative, high - quality development of the pig industry, and strengthened regional environmental protection are beneficial to the long - term performance of pig prices. [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 12th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened flat and then fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest price was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,140 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,230 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,487 lots to 175,404 lots. [8] - Spot: On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.69 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. [8] Pig Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 138,300 heads, 600 heads less than the previous day and 2,100 heads more than a week ago. [9] - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase from the actual slaughter volume in July. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm for slaughter on the breeding side was high, and the slaughter progress was fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties remained high, and there were still secondary - fattened pigs to be released, so the slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuated slightly. [9] Group 5: Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. Group 6: Data Overview - As of August 7, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 119 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 54 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/head. [14] - In the week of August 7, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 516 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week. [14] - As of July this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.15 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% and a year - on - year increase of 6.71%. [14] - The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase, with a significant increase in slaughter volume. [14] - As of the week of August 7, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 127.8 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%, and an increase of 1.6 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.27%. [14]
建信期货棉花日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:06
行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 研究员:余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 研究员:林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 研究员:王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1:行情回顾 海外市场,下一年度新棉签约进度同比偏慢,CFTC 基金净多持仓维持低位运 行,外盘维持宽幅区间震荡重心略有下移,关注 8 月 USDA 供需报告指引。国内市 场,距离新花上市还有 ...
建信期货油脂日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:06
行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 研究员:余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 研究员:林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 研究员:王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1:行情回顾 | 15 87 | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 : | 寂低价 : | | 收盘价 :涨跌;涨跌幅 | | | :成交量:持仓量 持仓量变化: | | | --- | - ...
建信期货PTA日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:59
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report - Date: August 13, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - Crude oil is in a narrow - range oscillation. Under low processing fees, PTA still has the expectation of unplanned device overhauls. Downstream rigid demand is stable, and the tariff extension is beneficial to market sentiment. It is expected that PTA will rise slightly [6]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: TA2509 closed at 4,726 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, with a total volume of 365,385 and a decrease of 53,690; TA2601 closed at 4,760 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton, with a total volume of 258,839 and an increase of 24,369. On the 12th, the closing price of PTA's main futures TA2505 was 5,048 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%, the settlement price was 5,050 yuan/ton, and the daily position increased by 2,383 lots [6]. 4.2 Industry News - **International Oil Prices**: On Monday (August 11), the settlement price of West Texas Light Crude Oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.96 per barrel, up $0.08 or 0.13% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.63 per barrel, up $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day [7]. - **PX Market**: The price of the PX Chinese market was estimated at $835 - 837 per ton, up $2 per ton from the previous trading day; the price of the PX South Korean market was estimated at $815 - 817 per ton, up $2 per ton from the previous trading day. There was a single transaction of any October shipment at $834 per ton [7]. - **PTA Market**: The price of the East China PTA market was 4,705 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was based on the futures 2509 at a discount of 13 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [7]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures price summaries, spot - futures price differences, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipt quantities, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][17]
建信期货MEG日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:59
Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term macro - market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand structure and cost support of ethylene glycol are weak. It is expected that the short - term spot price of ethylene glycol may fluctuate within a range [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: For EG2509, the closing price was 4432 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan, with a position of 190,590 contracts, a decrease of 8,974 contracts; for EG2601, the closing price was 4478 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan, with a position of 57,197 contracts, an increase of 9,162 contracts. On the 12th, the opening price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract 2409 was 4395, the highest was 4416, the lowest was 4365, the settlement price was 4392, and the closing price was 4409, up 29 yuan or 0.66% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 207,424 lots, and the position was 433,890 lots [7] 2. Industry News - Oil prices: Investors are concerned about the upcoming negotiations between the US and a European country on the Ukraine crisis. On Monday (August 11), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.96 per barrel, up $0.08 or 0.13% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.02 - $64.44; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.63 per barrel, up $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.81 - $67.13 [8] - Ethylene glycol market in Zhangjiagang: The spot negotiation price this week is 4507 - 4509 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot negotiation price next week is 4508 - 4510 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price for the end of August is 4509 - 4511 yuan/ton. The basis of this week's spot is at a premium of 75 - 77 yuan/ton compared to EG2509, next week's spot basis is at a premium of 76 - 78 yuan/ton compared to EG2509, and the basis at the end of August is at a premium of 77 - 79 yuan/ton compared to EG2509 [8] - Polyester market: The price of polyester filament continued to rise locally to repair profit margins, but downstream buying was limited as most completed restocking last weekend and are currently digesting inventory. The main futures price of polyester staple fiber was running warmly. The price of staple fiber factories was stable, and the price of traders increased slightly. The downstream purchasing willingness was low, and the trading volume in the market was differentiated, with some low - price transactions showing an increase [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18]
建信期货原油日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:53
Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review (USD/barrel or CNY/barrel)** - WTI: Opened at 63.48, closed at 64, with a high of 64.44, a low of 63.02, a daily increase of 0.19%, and a trading volume of 20.39 million hands [6] - Brent: Opened at 66.25, closed at 66.71, with a high of 67.13, a low of 65.81, a daily increase of 0.18%, and a trading volume of 22.39 million hands [6] - SC (CNY/barrel): Opened at 495.4, closed at 495.2, with a high of 496.6, a low of 492.3, a daily increase of 0.55%, and a trading volume of 8.06 million hands [6] - **Core View** - US peak - season consumption has shown no significant improvement this year, and the impact of US - Russia negotiations on oil prices may be short - term. If the US ultimately imposes secondary tariffs on Russian oil, it may be an opportunity to enter short positions [7] - **Fundamental Analysis** - US and Russian leaders are about to have direct talks, and the US hopes to achieve an early cease - fire in Russia and Ukraine through sanctions. However, Russian crude oil has a relatively complete export channel, so the impact of sanctions remains short - term [6] - As of the week of the 1st, US gasoline demand was below the 5 - year average. Gasoline consumption during the peak season has not significantly recovered, and after 5 consecutive weeks of consumption below the 2024 level, the growth rate has just turned positive. Even with lower gasoline prices, consumption remains weak, indicating that US peak - season travel consumption this year is lower than expected [6] Group 3: Industry News - The Saratov refinery of Rosneft in the Volga region stopped receiving oil after being attacked [8] - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed sanctions on Russian oil with Modi. They agreed to plan a meeting at the UN General Assembly in September and formulate a mutual visit plan [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent prices, WTI and Oman spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources from Bloomberg, Wind, CFTC, EIA, etc. [10][12][20][23]